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Six and a half years ago, Nicholas Stern, chairman of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, released the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, 700 stunning pages. Boiling that down to its essence: If quick action isn't taken, it will cut the world economy 5 percent of gross domestic product every year forever. Staving off the worst impacts, the report concluded, would require about an investment of about one percent annually in global GDP. The study got a lot of pushback, including from the usual savants who argue that global warming isn't the scientific consensus.

Stern had some more bad news last week after the average 24-hour measurement of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere crossed the 400 part per million threshold for the first time.

At the Guardian, Robin McKie writes Climate change 'will make hundreds of millions homeless'. Now that in itself isn't news. Several reports have been saying that for years. But what's different is that what was thought to be decades away is much closer to happening than previously thought by all but the pessimists:

Nicholas Stern, climate economist
Nicholas Stern
It is increasingly likely that hundreds of millions of people will be displaced from their homelands in the near future as a result of global warming. That is the stark warning of economist and climate change expert Lord Stern following the news last week that concentrations of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere had reached a level of 400 parts per million (ppm).

Massive movements of people are likely to occur over the rest of the century because global temperatures are likely to rise to by up to 5C because carbon dioxide levels have risen unabated for 50 years, said Stern, who is head of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change.

"When temperatures rise to that level, we will have disrupted weather patterns and spreading deserts," he said. "Hundreds of millions of people will be forced to leave their homelands because their crops and animals will have died. The trouble will come when they try to migrate into new lands, however. That will bring them into armed conflict with people already living there. Nor will it be an occasional occurrence. It could become a permanent feature of life on Earth."

The news that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have reached 400ppm has been seized on by experts because that level brings the world close to the point where it becomes inevitable that it will experience a catastrophic rise in temperatures. Scientists have warned for decades of the danger of allowing industrial outputs of carbon dioxide to rise unchecked.


Blast from the Past. At Daily Kos on this date in 2006Did Hayden Break The Law?:

Today, the President pushed for a quick confirmation of his nominee for CIA Director, General Michael Hayden.  Various Senators have already come out and rubber-stamped the President's choice. I must admit, this rush to judgment seems paradoxical since program after program is being exposed that should stall--if not kill--the General's nomination.

First, it was the "terrorist surveillance program" that was represented by Hayden as being limited in nature. We still don't know who initiated the program. Reports suggest that it may have been Hayden who unilaterally implemented the extrajudicial spying program, before executive authorization.

Now, we learn that Hayden was the architect of a much broader program, one that has cataloged billions of calls made by innocent Americans.

While Hayden's supporters shrug off this massive data collection, they ignore a critical question:  did Hayden break the law? And if so, how can they overlook that and vote for his confirmation?

The fact is that, depending on the exact contours of the program, this program may have already been banned by Congress. And if so, Hayden's resurrection of that program should cast the death blow to any nomination.


Tweet of the Day:

Michele Bachmann's tears taste so sweet.
@aurosan via web



On today's Kagro in the Morning show, zOMG, IRS! Greg Dworkin reminded us all too briefly that there are other things happening in the world, specifically the decision of what to do in Newtown, CT with the now-vacant Sandy Hook Elementary School building. After that, back to the IRS. We recall the Republicans' effort to "defund the left" with the Istoook amendment, Newt Gingrich's efforts to shoehorn his own political activity into a tax-exempt context, and the Bush administration's politicization of the US Attorneys and the wider DOJ. Finally, we read Daily Kos' own Jon Perr on "Benghazi and the Republican scandal management playbook."


High Impact Posts. Top Comments.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:30 PM PDT.

Also republished by DK GreenRoots and Climate Change SOS.

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Comment Preferences

  •  816,531 registered users on dKos now. (22+ / 0-)

    Here are the 10 newest registered users on dKos.  Hope to see their comments and diaries here soon!  (If they're not spammers.)

    grade7sheep
    pineworm84
    studystory6
    metalstamp3
    german04stream
    wasp90key
    limitgreece0
    pvc1trick
    idea38pine
    footdryer40


    And since our society is obsessed with numbers that end in a lot of zeros as milestones, here's a special shoutout to users:
    #814,500: curler52scale
    #814,600: gabrie14l (spammer)
    #814,700: coverview9 (spammer)
    #814,800: nutcirrus88 (spammer)
    #814,900: save05glue
    #815,000: pantythrill66
    #815,100: talk11switch
    #815,200: europelawyer83
    #815,300: hollywoodhotmoms
    #815,400: yellowopera9
    #815,500: voice18yellow
    #815,600: advice5throat (spammer)
    #815,700: twinebread83
    #815,800: wordtile9
    #815,900: eziimovie (spammer)
    #816,000: coughsquid5
    #816,100: faucet2soccer
    #816,200: priest02noise
    #816,300: homeregret52
    #816,400: priesttext7
    #816,500: flamecolon68

    We've added a whopping 2,110 more users in the last 24 hours.  This is a continuation going back to May where we've been absolutely flooded with new users.  I'm pretty sure almost all of these new users are spammers or bots.  While the rate had been getting faster, it seems they suddenly started slowing down right when Hurricane Sandy hit.  It slowed down to under 1,000 new users in a 24-hour period, and we were back down to somewhat over 100 new users every 24 hours or so, until about January 30th, when it exploded again.  What are they planning?


    And for your Diary Rescue music pleasure, here's P!nk's "Try".

  •  revisiting some thoughts on education (6+ / 0-)

    from 2006 in this post

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:31:38 PM PDT

  •  Something I think I finally understand (5+ / 0-)

    is what I explore here

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:32:59 PM PDT

  •  Netroots Nation registration available :-( (6+ / 0-)

    Decided the time and money needed to go to the other coast just aren't in my plans for this year, as much as I would love to go.

    Got my registration back when it was inexpensive ~ yours for $205.

    The worst sin - perhaps the only sin - passion can commit, is to be joyless. (Gaudy Night, Dorothy L. Sayers)

    by mayim on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:34:05 PM PDT

  •  This chart should be attached to everybody's... (21+ / 0-)

    ...refrigerator or "wallpapered" on their laptop screen:

    Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

    by Meteor Blades on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:34:25 PM PDT

    •  Well now, that didn't work, did it? Try again... (23+ / 0-)

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:37:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What the Hell does Everybody Have to Do With (5+ / 0-)

      it? Earth's not a democracy.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:37:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  People (apparently) need to be reminded... (18+ / 0-)

        ...that action is required, whether that is action directed at governments, or as you have urged us to do, taken directly to the owners. Why reminded? Because only a rare few seem to be taking this seriously except for a few social media OMGs, Likes and Tweets.

        Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

        by Meteor Blades on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:40:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Backwardness of Science is So Frightening. nt (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GreyHawk, sceptical observer

          We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

          by Gooserock on Mon May 13, 2013 at 09:13:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I've done several diaries here (8+ / 0-)

          on the inevitability of 450ppm within 20 years . . . to hardly any notice at all.  Even here on dKos (which I sort of saw as our last best hope) people don't take it seriously . . . it's all windmills and electric cars, as if that's going to fix everything.  Or "kill cows for climate", which is just too . . . bovine . . . for words.  I was half done with another diary on development plans for the Arctic Ocean (another bit of evidence that "they" damned well know what's coming, and don't plan to do anything to stop it), but shelved it . . . nobody (who hasn't figured it out themselves already) cares . . . at least not enough to do anything that would actually make a difference.

          It's a good day now if I can rise to mere pessimism.  The 1% are securing their lifeboats (arks, actually) and are fully prepared to let half the world's population sink.  Or more.  Don't need 'em . . . the machines will serve them better in the brave new world.

          Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

          by Deward Hastings on Mon May 13, 2013 at 10:01:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  How do you go from 75 ppm in 50 years to (0+ / 0-)

            50 ppm in 20 years? The world is pretty much stuck around
            30 billion tons of CO2 per year.
            The world is running out of fossil fuel contrary to the hype
            even coal.
            Peak oil is real.

          •  Or, the people who really care about this stuff (5+ / 0-)

            aren't here all the time.

            I come to dkos for banter and news.

            I do my environmental activism in real life. I belong to groups and work on my own, am exerting pressure, writing checks, doing what I can. I don't sign Internet petitions. I call. I show up at offices. I write letters. I clear streams, talk to neighbors, plant trees....

            When I come here, I don't need to read another climate change diary. I was just rereading the most recent predictions about the effects on the Sacramento Delta and Valley. I just can't jump into more bad news every time someone here wants to write about it.

            I know it. I'm living it. I'm scurrying as fast as I can already.

            © grover


            So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

            by grover on Mon May 13, 2013 at 11:07:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I understand that. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              grover

              California is an interesting case . . . parts of it might be able to survive.  Sea level rise is going to wreck the Delta sooner than most expect, and the whole Inland Sea will be restored before it's all over . . . but that's centuries from now.  In the near term it all hinges on weather . . . highly uncertain weather.  And water . . . highly uncertain water.  Without the snowpack to count on we should be building reservoirs in every plausible location . . . and not shipping water South.

              But you know all that, I'm sure . . . and know also that there is absolutely no will in Sacramento to "do the right thing".

              Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

              by Deward Hastings on Mon May 13, 2013 at 11:55:34 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I keep telling people that wine county (4+ / 0-)

                As we know it will be wiped off the map. That gets attention.

                Because of existing longtime flood concerns, FEMA has been working to elevate Sonoma homes so that they can better survive Normal flooding But you can't live like that even if your home is above water.

                Carneros sits at 7ft elevation. Vallejo will be a goner.

                The oldest vines wine country vines are planted on the hills: they were hidden there during prohibition. But many of those aren't the most popular varietals, like Pinot noir, which is relatively new to California, but Cabs and Zinfandels.  

                The loss of acreage of grape vines, hops, apples, dairy and other goods will be devastating to the country. Sonoma County is the 8th largest producer of agricultural goods. Napa, of course, is a top producing wine county. They both have large low-lying valleys where wineries, tasting rooms, storage facilities, restaurants, shops, and homes are located.

                Tell folks that Fairfield will flow away, and they kind of snicker that the Air Force can move out Jelly Belly's stock when it evacuates Travis AFB. And for thrmselves? They just shrug and say they and their boss will move to higher country, like Tahoe or Shasta.

                But they know instinctively (even if they don't drink) that you can't grow $300/bottle wine just anywhere and that the economy depends on that wine and the state depends on the taxes. These folks have never heard the word terroir but they know Napa is special. And most folks love Sonoma, home of Jack London.

                So I just chat with them about what we stand to lose and that at this stage, it really is inevitable, unless we get our government and industry to stop and BACK UP.

                Most folks think they're good environmentalists if they're recycling. I tell them that's true if this is 1977. Recycling is obligatory now. It's like owning a cell phone. It used to be cool. Now you just do it. And we talk about the next level.

                I'm always amazed how when pushed a little (told their current efforts aren't enough)  most folks are motivated to do more. Often they start slow. But they get kind of jazzed... And pretty soon, they're zealots, proselytizing to their friends and neighbors. The key is to find something people believe in.

                © grover


                So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

                by grover on Tue May 14, 2013 at 01:19:23 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  There is no "future value" (0+ / 0-)

                  in Foster City (which was a waterlogged marsh called "Brewers Island" when I was a kid).  But sea-level rise is a (relatively) long term thing (we'll still wait a lifetime to see the first 1-2 meters) . . . short term climate (AKA "weather") will change California agriculture before that.  Wine goes North . . . and is already developing as a "new industry" in Washington and BC.

                  The problem for the well-intentioned people in Sonoma is that it's out of their hands now . . . it is truly "global" . . . and apart from too many silly cars Sonoma is no longer "at cause".  They could do everything right and nothing would change.  And apart from the weather, which is variable anyway, the next ten years will look more like the last ten than it will like Armageddon.  And there's the rub . . . here in Berkeley it's easy to look at a map and say "don't build West of San Pablo Ave. . . . there's no future in it" . . . but that's long-term.  We'll still be shopping at Berkeley Bowl West twenty years from now, and somebody will be in forty.  It probably wouldn't be there for the grand kids anyway (what is in America?) so just use it (the store, and the waterfront) while you can.  Building it wasn't a "bad investment" . . . it will serve out its intended (expected) life.

                  Even Foster City will be OK (with a few more pumps, perhaps) for another twenty-thirty-forty years. It would be foolish to build it now, or even to add much to it, but I wonder at what point it becomes prudent to say "abandon it".  Not in my lifetime . . .

                  Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

                  by Deward Hastings on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:09:10 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The thing is, I'm not talking to people (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    JeffW

                    IN Sonoma. I'm using that as an example of how bad it's going to be. It's hard for folks to get motivated when they can't understand how bad it will be or what they can do to help.

                    I outline it out for them carefully.

                    And then tell them to get busy doing stuff like lobbying Congress, changing their ways, talking to neighbors, etc.

                    If you're  right that its all a "just" huge global problem anyhow (when Americans are the biggest gross polluters) then we might as well just drive hummers and blast AC all year, and ignore the crisis. I refuse to give up.

                    © grover


                    So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

                    by grover on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:46:06 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I'm not (quite) giving up either . . . (0+ / 0-)

                      but I won't invest much energy into things that won't do any good anyway.  Most of the "feel good" solutions make no meaningful contribution to resolving anything, and in many cases serve to defer potentially useful efforts even further.  Getting a Prius or an "all electric" (where do they think the electricity comes from?) car does nothing to encourage China and India and Poland to install nuclear instead of coal fired power plants (and the US to replace its own coal plants with nuclear).  Not that there's anything wrong with buying a Prius or a Leaf . . . but it will not have any impact on global warming.

                      A gas tax is the best way to deal with the hummers (there are a lot of them in Sonoma, you know), and AC has a simple (and "teaching moment") solution . . . require all new installations be solar powered.  Short-term "actions" need to be linked to long-term strategy . . . and in the long term accommodation and limiting the damage are what we have left.  Actual remediation is so far from "on the table" that even mention of it is little more than a joke.

                      Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

                      by Deward Hastings on Tue May 14, 2013 at 11:21:29 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

        •  I keep trying to update Wikipedia (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ender, catilinus, CuriousBoston

          Climate deniers still hold sway there and the IPCC report from 2007 is taken as accurately reporting the present expectations even after the 2010 Group 1 report showing rising sea levels could be measured in meters rather than feet long before 2100.

          When the next report comes out in 2014 it is expected that the worst case scenarios from 2007 will have been greatly exceeded because sea level rise is observably accelerating, ie; the rate of increase in sea level rise is increasing at an increasing rate. Even as a linear plot its doubling every decade.

          Bangaladesh is going to be history soon, likewise the low lying Pacific atolls. We all know this, but what we are headed for affects us directly so maybe before long we could begin to care.

          More than 100 Gulf and East Coast cities with populations greater than 100,000 are looking at rising sea levels exceeding what can be handled by seawalls and levees.

          The cost of cities relocating to higher ground over the next three to five decades can be roughly projected by looking at the cost of rebuilding New Orleans and the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Katrina and Staten Island after Hurricane Sandy as 150 Billion dollars per year per city affected.

          If we don't address that aspect of climate change pretty much everything else we accomplish will be wasted.

          Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

          by rktect on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:24:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Does this mean that all this worrying about (5+ / 0-)

      politics and job reports and whatever else might all be meaningless?

      We might want to rethink our apocalyptic views now and start considering how we are going to get together to weather (no pun intended) these changes.

      It's frightening to think about.

      "If you don't sin, then Jesus died for nothing!" (on a sign at a Mardi Gras parade in New Orleans)

      by ranger995 on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:42:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The wingnuts have their hair on fire (9+ / 0-)

    all over the internets today.

    BENGHAZI!

    IRS!

    IMPEACH OBAMA!

    It's obvious what Republicans are doing with their Benghazi crap. Just like they did with Obamacare (DEATH PANELS!) in 2010 when they won all over the map, they're going to use it to turn out the Teabag base nuts in 2014.

    This kind of crap (Benghazi conspiracy theories) is like catnip for the low IQ neanderthals who make up their base because it requires absolutely no thought whatsoever.

    All Republicans have to do is scream - "Benghazi", "Obummer and Hillary Lied, Americans Died!", and the base nuts rise up on their hind legs and start barking.

    ------"Load up on guns, bring your friends. It's fun to lose and to pretend."------- Kurt Cobain

    by Jeff Y on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:36:36 PM PDT

  •  400? Guess who's coming to dinner. (6+ / 0-)

    You really don't want to guess who's going to become dinner.

    The Great Awakening Is Afire! Think outside the box or remain mundane.

    by franklyn on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:38:58 PM PDT

  •  So this looks worth checking out. (10+ / 0-)

    Also, they just announced 24 is coming back for another season!  Jack Bauer is returning to kick more terrorist ass!!!

  •  I don't know how many reports of (10+ / 0-)

    "extreme" weather I've seen on local and network stations during this latest record breaking May heatwave in the Los Angeles area. I can't think of one that has mentioned climate change.
    I fail to grasp the denial that allows the lack of governmental action and it's costly (let alone deadly) demands on the coming generations. It isn't only that they will inherit the tabs for unimaginable catastrophic change, they have no hope of seeing the planet I have known.
    Props must be given to the few state governors like Brown and Cuomo who at least give a nod to what's sure to be a nightmarish future, but even they know that individual states attempting to buck the nonsensical national tide is like spitting in the ocean.
    Somebody needs to whip the country's butt into action and it sure as hell isn't going to be Obama.
    Thanks for never letting up on the siren, MB, and more importantly, not giving up on the notion that whatever can be done must be done.

  •  Radioactive water spilled in lake Michigan, YAY! (12+ / 0-)

    I am hoping that because I drink Lake Michigan water, that I will get hit by lightening or something and become a super hero.

    That's my plan

    "If you don't sin, then Jesus died for nothing!" (on a sign at a Mardi Gras parade in New Orleans)

    by ranger995 on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:52:11 PM PDT

    •  It's a good plan. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ender, ranger995, JeffW, lurkyloo

      Have you picked your name yet? Been suited for your cape? Sidekick? Changing station(s)? Hang-out?

      If that's in the water, you're going to have a lot of ordinary citizens-turned-ghastly-villains.

      So you may want to get your plan together soon. All superheroes need a good business plan.

      © grover


      So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

      by grover on Mon May 13, 2013 at 11:11:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What superpower do you want? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      maryabein, ranger995

      I took a poll once and chose, "The ability to command sea creatures," because that superpower looked so lonely sitting there on the shelf like the last person to be chosen for softball.

  •  Coasts will recede, deserts will expand, and (10+ / 0-)

    people will war on one another. Republicans will call for a  fence and demand to know why they weren't notified.

    The Great Awakening Is Afire! Think outside the box or remain mundane.

    by franklyn on Mon May 13, 2013 at 08:55:53 PM PDT

  •  The planet now "hosts" some seven, eight (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GreyHawk, sceptical observer

    billion humans. Time for Noah to start building another ark. Mother Nature feeling crowded.

  •  Global Warming will hit poor countries the most (7+ / 0-)

    Like Bangladesh. It is gonna be another round Rich vs Poor.

  •  What's funny is... (7+ / 0-)

    I never share my own diaries on Facebook, because while it's easy enough to figure out who I am, I just don't want everyone to know about the time I spend on DailyKos.  And so without me ever asking/begging/telling my 1,900+ friends on Facebook to share what I wrote, I still got the most clicked on diary not written by a front-pager this past week.  Shucks.  :-)

    •  1900 friends. (0+ / 0-)

      Or "friends"?

      ;)

      © grover


      So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

      by grover on Mon May 13, 2013 at 11:13:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My rule... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        grover

        is I only add someone after I've actually had at least two conversations with them, or one very long in-depth conversation.  And almost all of these are in person, not over the Internet.  I think there's only one Kossack I'm friends with on Facebook that I haven't met personally, but we've talked online since maybe 2006 or 2007.  :-)

        •  Wow. That's a lot of conversations! (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BruinKid

          I'm exhausted just thinking about it! But I also was extremely  social in college and grad school.

          I've grown more curmudgeonly over the years. I like to think I'm more discriminating. But I admit that I'll probably end up living in Ted Kaczynski's shack with just my husband and my dogs  eventually.

          But you're always welcome as long as you leave your 2000 friends at home though.

          ;)

          © grover


          So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

          by grover on Tue May 14, 2013 at 01:29:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Yes, human beings will have to migrate to (5+ / 0-)

    escape climate change, but what escape will plants and animals have?

    "They come, they come To build a wall between us We know they won't win."--Crowded House, "Don't Dream It's Over."

    by Wildthumb on Mon May 13, 2013 at 09:00:54 PM PDT

    •  That's a good thought, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ranger995, GreyHawk, remembrance

      but they seem to have a pretty good track record for that.

      The Great Awakening Is Afire! Think outside the box or remain mundane.

      by franklyn on Mon May 13, 2013 at 09:07:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  More likely that there will be crop and fisheries (6+ / 0-)

      failures along with food chain collapses, before massive human migrations caused by rising waters.

      Bee populations are on the decline.  We are too stupid to have local hives and stop trucking them around, decreasing genetic diversity and using tons of pesticides which affect the bees as well as pests.

      Citrus crops are already being disrupted in Florida, with the potential to destroy the US citrus industry.  Invasive diseases again.

      Pests and disease are now decimating the ash trees which were planted to replace the elms which fell to insects and disease.  Pine forests are under stress as temperatures rise.

      Fish eggs, coral and other sea life may be negatively affected by warming waters absorbing more CO2, acidifying the water.

      The CO2 alone is a danger.  The rising water is only a symptom.  Higher CO2 means increasing warming even if we stopped burning all coal and oil today.

      It may be millenia before the CO2 falls unless we find ways to begin decreasing it ourselves with massive projects of some kind.  Rather than positive actions, I feel we are much more likely to turn to weaponry and war to defend or seize water, food sources, energy sources.

      I'm just very pessimistic on how this all turns out. (you can tell, right?)    ;-)

      "The law is meant to be my servant and not my master, still less my torturer and my murderer." -- James Baldwin. July 11, 1966.

      by YucatanMan on Mon May 13, 2013 at 10:09:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Unfortunately I share your pessimism. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        YucatanMan

        Our children and grandchildren will live, in the words of the
        Chinese saying, "in interesting times."

        I'm an amateur naturalist, and collect critters for our nature center here in SoCal. I worry about the simplest species surviving. Unfortunately, some of us will have to press on trying to protect a few species where and when we can. (While we're looking out for our own human survival, too.)
        We need to band together and help ourselves and the planet as much as possible.

        "They come, they come To build a wall between us We know they won't win."--Crowded House, "Don't Dream It's Over."

        by Wildthumb on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:48:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  A lot of species are moving north (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      maryabein, Wildthumb

      Maine lobster prefer a water temperature of 45 degrees. At present its 54 degrees and will continue warming through September. Ironically the last couple of years Lobster have glutted the market, but like a lot of other fisheries the survivable habitat has limits.

      I suppose in the southern hemisphere species are moving south. Some of us may live long enough to see everything between the tropics uninhabitable and most parts of the Oceans and Rain Forests dead or dying.

      At the same time human overpopulation is a part of the problem. Affordable healthcare that will offer most of us extended lifespans and less child mortality becomes just another irony in that context. Along with that comes Peak Oil so it gets harder and more expensive to maintain our expectations for food supplies and especially as we lose our fossil water harder to bring it to where its needed to grow crops.

      I don't expect large mammals to do well in hotter environments, like humans they tend to be very sensitive to long periods of 100 degree days.

      Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

      by rktect on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:44:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  "We've got Mother Nature on the run ... " (6+ / 0-)

    Look at Mother Nature on the run ....

    "If you don't sin, then Jesus died for nothing!" (on a sign at a Mardi Gras parade in New Orleans)

    by ranger995 on Mon May 13, 2013 at 09:15:21 PM PDT

  •  In reality (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GreyHawk, Lily O Lady, Ginny in CO

    the future value of all property located 20-30 miles from the sea should now be zero.

  •  Ave, Atque, Vale, Rex Luscus (5+ / 0-)

    A friend passed away the other day...

     Ave, Atque, Vale, Rex Luscus

    My farewell - brief, and likely irrelevant to most. Still, if you'd raise a toast to him or engage someone in intelligent conversation about history, literature, the arts, working your hands or any of a potential myriad of topics, it's enough.

    Good night, all.

  •  I would bet hundreds of millions will starve first (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sceptical observer, LinSea

    Sea level rise is probably going to take longer than the likely famines in the near future. Not that they are likely to happen in many of the same places. It is going to make it a lot more difficult to find places for hundreds of millions to move when a lot of the places that might have been able to handle them no longer can.

    For the dark view, what year will be the first for planetary human population to decline? Figure we are adding about 70 million a year right now. We will likely hit 8 billion around 2027, barring disaster.

    I am thinking that we scrape 8 billion around 2035, and then decline slowly for the rest of the century, mostly from lack of water and food in the poorer and more marginal climates. Far too late to do much good.

  •  Angelina Jolie NYT Op-Ed on her double masectomy (5+ / 0-)

    Pretty intense and personal information here.  Ms. Jolie has undergone a pre-emptive double masectomy because she had a very high genetic exposure to the risk of developing breast cancer.  http://www.nytimes.com/...

    "Unrestricted immigration is a dangerous thing -- look at what happened to the Iroquois." Garrison Keillor

    by Spider Stumbled on Mon May 13, 2013 at 09:53:22 PM PDT

  •  Stealing a line from Denzel in the movie... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jan4insight, grover

    Philadelphia.
    "Explain this to me like I was a four year old"

    The whole AP phone records thing.
    From what I have read over the years on this site and others the Government can legally spy/listen/phone tap anyone right?
    I thought there was a lot of outrage about this on the left and by libertarians  (rightly so) but the congress routinely approves it and the public doesn't raise much of a stink.
    So whats different this time?
    Couldn't  the AG, FBI,CIA Obama etc..just come out and say "This stuff has been routine for... like it or not its the law"
    And "If you don't like it then get congress to amend the law"
    Is it likely that the law will be changed?

    peace

    keith

    "Love is what we were born with. Fear is what we learned here." Marianne Williamson

    by Canadian Green Card Alien on Mon May 13, 2013 at 09:58:45 PM PDT

    •  My understanding is that DOJ has (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Canadian Green Card Alien

      Policies (not laws) that says taps for criminal investigations have to be limited in time and scope.

      But this thing lasted two or so months and was huge, including numerous AP offices, reporter home and cell phones.

      So it seems they violated their own policies big time (more in scope than in time from where I sit.  The scope thing makes it kind of look like a fishing expedition, which is kind of hinky.)

      So.

      I think we need until we get all the facts. If it were 1-2 reporters who moved around offices a lot plus their 1-2 editors, and these folks each have numerous phones, that might mean that it's not as bad as it looks. But if they just started tapping everything with a dial tone, regardless of who at AP used the line,  it's concerning.

      I like to wait for all the facts before I freak out...

      © grover


      So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

      by grover on Mon May 13, 2013 at 11:26:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Erg. (0+ / 0-)

        Sorry. I wrote "phone taps" when I meant phone records. I was attempting to multitask (I'm making cinnamon rolls), and my brain frizzled on me.  We watched Gangster Squad last night, and I think that's why I got stuck on that word.

        Everything applies the same. Just substitute "tap" and replace "subpoena phone records."

        © grover


        So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

        by grover on Mon May 13, 2013 at 11:51:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  they just say "national security" (0+ / 0-)

        and it makes everything OK.

        But as a matter of fact the FBI was doing warrantless taps back in the 60's (back then they just said "communist").  Technology has only made it easier.

        Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

        by Deward Hastings on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:42:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Huge lede opening along the CAA--Arctic Melt 2013 (3+ / 0-)

    Made a looping gif of the action from May 5-May 13 from images available via NASA's worldview.

    Loop of large lede opening along most of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

    (give it time to load. it's about 3.25Mb.  Didn't want to skimp on resolution too much.)

    •  Similar animation of ice transport in Laptev Sea (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Eric Nelson

      This is another animated gif from the other side of the Arctic Ocean near Siberia.  It shows some dynamic transport of fully mobile ice in the Laptev sea where we begin to see some of this year's first large expanses of dark open waters.  The frames come from May 5-13 as well.

      If you watch this and the prior animation carefully in the cloud covered regions, you can begin to see the smaller ledes (cracks) that belie the large clockwise movements of the entire ice cap.  The ice in the two exit zones for mobile ice--the straits near Alaska and Greenland--was looking pretty static for now while I played with the images available at the worldview site.

  •  As I recall (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ginny in CO, METAL TREK, 714day

    I made this same observation several years ago.

    I also pointed out that there are additional "multipliers" that will exacerbate the obvious problems.

    First, warfare kills many people beyond the combatants. Revenge becomes an enduring cause of deadly conflict.

    Second, war disrupts trade. Hunger will kill as many as direct conflict.

    Third, war promotes the spread of disease.

    Fourth, war refugees absorb resources that otherwise might be used to avoid war.

    Fifth, these same refugees will trigger additional combat via population pressure, and resource competition.

    Sixth, the underlying environmental issues will be still ignored, and exacerbated by the burning, poisoning etc... associated with war and modern technology.

  •  Just a reminder: Rape isn't about sex; it's (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eric Nelson, 714day

    about power. angelajean wrote a diary about the Independent Lens documentary on rape in the military entitled The Invisible War which was scheduled to air on PBS May 13th as well as streaming on Netflix.

    Whenever rape is in the process of being swept under the rug once again, the arguments swirl around the idea that sex is involved. But rape in the military is perpetrated against both women and men by heterosexual men. I regard rape as a subset of bullying which is also about exercising power over others. Both can lead to PTSD and drive the victims to sometimes take their own lives.

    Without the overtones of sex, rape can be better seen for what it is--a violent crime of power.

    "The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

    by Lily O Lady on Mon May 13, 2013 at 10:48:00 PM PDT

  •  Lawrence O'Donnell and Ezra discuss why 501(c)4.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    714day

    ..never should have been allowed to slip from exclusively to mean  - primarily

    Section 501(c)(4) of the Internal Revenue Code defines tax-exempt social welfare groups like this:
    Civic leagues or organizations not organized for profit but operated exclusively for the promotion of social welfare.

    In 1959, under the administration of Dwight Eisenhower, the meaning of this section was changed dramatically when the IRS decided the word “exclusively” could, in effect, be read as “primarily.”
    And 501(c)4 are anonymous
    Link: http://tv.msnbc.com/...
  •  one of my favorite small joys (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Deward Hastings

    happened today! Its when an airplane gets in just the right position between me and the sun that, for just a moment, it blocks out all light.

    I don't know why I find that so delightful. But I do! And its great! I think it has something to do with the sequence. First and sudden, slightly longer than a blink shadow, followed moments later by the sound of the jet engines.

    Everything has to go so perfectly for it to happen. I live near an airport and it still doesnt happen often! Always neat when it does.

    "Trust not the words of a poet, as he is born to seduce. Yet for poetry to seize the heart, it must ring with the chimes of truth."

    by kamrom on Mon May 13, 2013 at 11:40:11 PM PDT

    •  had that happen, extended edition, (0+ / 0-)

      lots of years ago in Eastern Nevada.  I was "ferrying" a Corvette from Oregon to Colorado for a lawyer friend, and driving, well, sort of fast.  120, give or take.  No speed limit in Nevada back then.  There's an Air Force base out there where they trained for mid-air refueling (KC130s, I think) . . . lots of "slow" flying.

      Anyway, it got dark.  For several miles.  Several minutes, actually.  The pilot (or navigator) must have seen us, and wondered how fast we were going, and parked their shadow on us to find out.  Or just for fun.  Which it certainly was, once we figured out what was happening.

      Fake Left, Drive Right . . . not my idea of a Democrat . . .

      by Deward Hastings on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:59:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  RNC's Fl. Hispanic outreach director (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    METAL TREK, DeadHead, JeffW

    is now a Democrat.

    http://www.tampabay.com/...

    Presumably few Republican operatives have a better handle on the national Repubublican party's efforts to court Hispanic voters than Pablo Pantoja, a native of Puerto Rico, and Florida State University alum appointed by the Republican National Committee to oversee Hispanic outreach in Florida last year. He also worked as a field director in the 2010 midterm elections.

    Now - amid another debate over immigration reform and a widely touted Heritage foundation study on immigrants touted by a fellow who used to argue that Hispanics have a lower IQ than non-Hispanic immigrants - Pantojo has decided he's more comfortable joining the Democratic party.

    He sent out a email explaining why. Worth reading.

    "The human eye is a wonderful device. With a little effort, it can fail to see even the most glaring injustice." Richard K. Morgan

    by sceptical observer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:19:15 AM PDT

  •  If the last time (0+ / 0-)

    CO2 was this high was 2 million years ago, what kind of cars or industries did they have?

  •  Poetry Time (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    maryabein

    A few days ago, I posted my favorite poem, Coleridge's "Kubla Khan" as a diary.  Tonight I'll post my second-favorite as a comment:

    The Second Coming by William Butler Yeats

    TURNING and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.
    Surely some revelation is at hand;
    Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
    The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
    When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
    Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
    A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
    A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
    Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
    Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
    The darkness drops again; but now I know
    That twenty centuries of stony sleep
    Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
    And what rough beast, its hour come round at laSt,
    Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

    Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?

    by ActivistGuy on Tue May 14, 2013 at 01:08:25 AM PDT

  •  A question for those who want to reduce (0+ / 0-)

    personal carbon footprint.

    I have fallen down the rabbit hole, and am replacing a 30 y/o heating system (all electric) and this started because my 30 y/o solar DHW flatplate finally failed. So. bait/switch. Now I have begun installation of a propane-fired DHW and heating/AC system for the house.

    My plan had been to remove the roof collector and put in PV panels on the roof (correctly sited). There will be no PV activity once the snow falls. There was never solar DHW in the winter.

    So... now I am told that I must clear 20-30 large trees to give the panels light access. I live in the woods. But a 120' wide swath on the south side? Aren't I increasing my carbon footprint by removing large oaks, ashes, maples, etc to the point that I increase my C footprint by doing so?

    This was yesterday's information, but if anyone has links to small forest elimination (=bad) versus forgetting about PV for this site I would love to hear from you.

    Americans, while occasionally willing to be serfs, have always been obstinate about being peasantry. F. Scott Fitzgerald, the Great Gatsby

    by riverlover on Tue May 14, 2013 at 02:04:13 AM PDT

  •  Canada wins. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ender

    I posted this in an afternoon open thread, and nobody noticed.
    So I'm posting it here, because I couldn't sleep anyway.

    Canada wins.
    Everything.
    For the rest of forever.
    Game over.

    To put the torture behind us is, inevitably, to put it in front of us.

    by UntimelyRippd on Tue May 14, 2013 at 02:28:18 AM PDT

  •  1.3 bio € German drone disaster (0+ / 0-)

    sense and avoid system missing.Huge prestige loss for German minister of defence Thomas de Maiziere. I think 600 mio would have been sufficient to find out that you need “sense and avoid” in Germany. Germany is one of the countries with the highest flight density in the world. It’s anyway a shame that sense and avoid is not law in the US.  Finally, Germany has now lost 1.3 bio for a poop.

    http://ccoaler.com/...

    http://ccoaler.files.wordpress.com/...

    http://www.focus.de/...

  •  Displacement needs to be on the table regardless. (0+ / 0-)

    It is legitimate to question, for example, whether the cost and effort to maintain coastal cities can be justified as water levels frise.

    It is legitimate to ask whether it is better to move people out of places like Arizona to places like Minnesota or even cross borders to a place like Saskatchewan.  If it's ok to cross a border for a job, it must be ok to cross a border because one's former home has become hell.

    At this point, CO2 levels are still rising.  Given the time that CO2 remains in the atmosphere, once things get really bad, they are likely to stay that way for a century or more.

    There are no cheap and easy short-term solutions.  Just short-term survival and long-term mitigation.

    Unless we want to get into geo-engineering, which, come to think of it , is neither cheap nor easy.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Tue May 14, 2013 at 04:38:52 AM PDT

  •  Modest Proposal (0+ / 0-)

    Replace Todd Stern with Nicholas Stern.

    It would be a start.

    400ppm : what about my daughter's future?

    by koNko on Tue May 14, 2013 at 04:43:42 AM PDT

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