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9:15 AM PT: OH-Treas: Oh man. What progressive wouldn't love to beat Josh Mandel twice in two years? Ohio's Republican state treasurer ran the most mendacious campaign of 2012, lying through his teeth without compunction about Sen. Sherrod Brown and his record, month after month. It didn't do him a bit of good, as Brown ran several points ahead of the president, winning by 6 and sending Mandel back to the treasurer's office—where he wasn't really doing any work in the first place. He is, however, up for re-election next year, and now Democrats officially have a candidate to take him on, state Rep. Connie Pillich.

Pillich's name may be familiar if you have a particularly good memory. In 2011, she expressed interest in running for Congress in either OH-01 or OH-02, but Republican redistricting efforts made both seats unappealing, and Pillich opted to seek re-election instead. Her own legislative district was targeted by redistricters nevertheless, but she wound up winning an 8-point victory—far more comfortable than the 600-vote win she miraculously held on with in 2010. Mandel, for all his faults, is a formidable fundraiser and will be a difficult opponent, but Pillich certainly is battle tested.

9:52 AM PT: IA-01: You know that we here at Daily Kos Elections try to be as assiduous as humanly possible, but once in a while, something manages to slip through even our jaws of steel. So here's an item from last month that's worth belatedly noting anyway: state Sen. Liz Mathis declared she would not run for Bruce Braley's open House seat in IA-01. Mathis won a tough special election in 2011 where control of the entire Senate was at stake, and she'd likely have made a formidable candidate in the Democratic primary in this blue-leaning district.

But there are still quite a few folks who may yet be interested, in addition to the one guy who's declared so far, state Rep. Patrick Murphy, whom Jennifer Jacobs at the Des Moines Register calls "the leading Democratic candidate." She also mentions several other possible names: attorney Dave O’Brien, market research firm owner Monica Vernon, state Sen. Jeff Danielson, and Iowa Utilities Board member Swati Dandekar.

Dandekar has already created an exploratory committee, though if she were to run, that would be truly incendiary. Not only is Dandekar quite conservative as Democrats go, but it was her resignation two years ago—to accept an appointment for a high-paying state job from GOP Gov. Terry Branstad—that triggered the special election (ultimately won by Mathis) that put the Democrats' Senate majority in doubt. A number of local Dems are, as you'd expect, extremely miffed at the notion of a Dandekar candidacy.

Previous rounds of Great Mentioner talk coughed up a few other potentials, including state Rep. Tyler Olson and Linn County Supervisor Linda Langston. In addition to Mathis, though, two prominent Democrats have also said no: state Sen. Steve Sodders and state Senate President Pam Jochum.

11:21 AM PT: Here's PPP's MN-Sen poll. Good news for Franken.

12:05 PM PT: CO Recall: There are some new recall efforts underway that you may not yet know about, but you'll want to. Last fall, Democrats succeeded in winning the Colorado state House back from Republicans, giving them full control of the legislature and the governorship. That's allowed Democrats to pass a number of progressive pieces of legislation, including same-day voter registration, a state-level DREAM Act, civil unions, and, most notably, a trio of new gun safety measures, among them expanded background checks and magazine size limits.

It's those laws in particular which have gun activists in a predictable furor, and they're fighting back by attempting to recall several Democratic legislators, chief among them state Senate President John Morse. While the effort is nominally being spearheaded by a pop-up local group called the "Basic Freedom Defense Fund," the NRA itself is now spending money to push the recall forward. (Their crappy mailer (PDF) claims that more than 15 rounds now constitutes "standard capacity.")

Morse is term-limited next year and could resign to avoid the recall, but he doesn't want to hand the NRA an easy victory and is taking this very seriously. Organizers only need 7,178 valid signatures to force a recall, which would be held under forgiving California-style rules, where a "recall: yes/no" question is paired with a "so who do you want to replace Morse" question. Though Morse's district is actually pretty blue, despite being nestled in the conservative city of Colorado Springs, his supporters have already begun advertising on his behalf. And importantly, a Republican doesn't have to beat him for the recall to succeed—Morse's opponents just need to get enough people to vote "yes" on the recall itself.

The good news is that progressive are already mobilizing in Morse's defense—and a separate recall campaign, against state Rep. Mike McLachlan, failed before it could even start, for lack of signatures. Recall proponents are also trying to put state Sens. Evie Hudak and Angela Giron on the ballot, though in both cases, they face much higher signature requirements than with Morse. Petitions for Morse, by the way, are due June 3, while Hudak and Giron's must be submitted a week later. We'll definitely be following all these affairs closely.

1:49 PM PT: PA-13, PA-Gov: We'll almost certainly see Montgomery County Commissioner Chairman Josh Shapiro run for higher office some day, but just not today. Shapiro, a 39-year-old Democrat, announced this week that he won't pursue a bid for the open 13th Congressional District or for governor next year, but he said that he intends to run for re-election as commissioner in 2015. Of course, if a tempting opportunity comes up in 2016, those plans could certainly change.

2:30 PM PT: MN-Sen: PPP has consistently shown freshman Sen. Al Franken in good shape for re-election, and their latest Minnesota poll is no different. Here's how Franken fares against a variety of potential Republican opponents, none of whom have actually declared:

• 51-36 vs. finance executive Mike McFadden

• 51-36 vs. Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek

• 52-36 vs. state Sen. Julie Rosen

• 52-35 vs. state Sen. Julianne Ortman

• 54-37 vs. talk radio host Jason Lewis

• 55-38 vs. Rep. Michele Bachmann (54-40 in Jan.)

Of course, as Tom Jensen points out, all of these GOPers are little known, something that will probably change next year. (That excludes Bachmann, who is simply universally loathed.) But Franken sports a decent 51-42 job approval rating and is already over 50 percent. In a blue state, that's a good place to be a for an incumbent Democrat.

3:13 PM PT: MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA has new data on Michigan's two big races coming up next year, for senator and governor, but like most of their polling, the undecideds are still really high. In a hypothetical Senate matchup, they have Dem Rep. Gary Peters (who has declared) leading GOP Rep. Mike Rogers (who hasn't) 37-30. Meanwhile, on the gubernatorial side, Republican Gov. Rick Snyder and former Dem Rep. Mark Schauer are tied at 39 apiece, virtually identical to the results EPIC saw last month. Schauer hasn't formally launched a bid yet, but the National Journal reports that he's about to hire a campaign manager, so his candidacy is apparently all but a done deal.

3:30 PM PT: NJ-Gov: Who even knew that Barbara Buono had this kind of cash on hand? Chris Christie's Democratic challenger is reportedly going up with a $1 million ad buy... which sounds quite big, but she's putting all her money into broadcast TV in the New York City media market. It doesn't get more expensive than that, so all this dough is only getting her a week of airtime, and some unknown (but probably not massive) number of gross ratings points, which are what really matters. An unnamed source tells Politico's Maggie Haberman that Buono has "money designated only for the primary race that she has to spend or lose," so at least that would explain the timing.

3:32 PM PT: CO-Gov: What is it with Republicans who ran for Senate seats in southern New England in 2006 fanning out across the country to try their hands at seeking elective office in other states? First we had Connecticut's Alan "Gold" Schlesinger, who's taken up residence in sunny Florida, where he's vying for the GOP nomination in the state's 18th Congressional District. And now we have Steve Laffey, the former mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island, who lost a primary challenge to then-Sen. Lincoln Chafee but has now adopted Colorado as his new home state and just announced a bid for governor, of all things. Go figure!

3:46 PM PT: KY-Sen: We've got the second former Miss America to show up in the Digest in as many days. Heather French Henry, the winner of the crown in 2000 and also the wife of ex-Lt. Gov. Steve Henry, says she's considering a bid against GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell next year. French Henry, who owns a dress boutique, doesn't sound especially enthused, but adds that "I certainly see myself, in the future, in some sort of political office."

3:59 PM PT: MT-Sen: As everyone waits for ex-Gov. Brian Schweitzer, newly elected as president of the board of Stillwater Mining Co., to decide on whether he'll run for Montana's open Senate seat, several other Democrats—all women, interestingly enough—have expressed interest themselves. The roster includes state Auditor Monica Lindeen, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau, and state Rep. Franke Wilmer, as well as EMILY's List chief Stephanie Schriock, whom we've previously mentioned.

All of these potential candidates, though, pretty much say they'd defer to Schweitzer, so all eyes remain on him. And there's one person who definitely isn't running. Montana Supreme Court Chief Justice Mike McGrath was perhaps the most talked about alternative to Schweitzer, but he says he's staying put.

4:17 PM PT: VA-Gov/LG: In states where the governor and lieutenant governor are nominated separately, sometimes you wind up with shotgun marriages that no one—except perhaps the gun-wielding farm girl's father—seems to want. But in the case of the Virginia GOP, it's one of the celebrants who's spending half his time pointing his firearm at the other, saying "keep away." The rest of the time? Well, Ken Cuccinelli knows he can't afford to alienate the same nightmarish conservative vanguard that saddled him with E.W. Jackson as his running mate, so instead of tying the knot, he's managed to twist himself into one. See, on the one hand:

At a campaign stop in Abingdon Monday, Cuccinelli reminded a crowd of supporters of the import of having a Republican as the tie-breaking vote in the evenly divided Virginia Senate, telling them Jackson can be trusted in that role.

"I don't need to know what the subject matter that's going to tie up 20-20 that the LG can vote on will be. I'm confident that we're going to get the right vote every single time out of E.W. Jackson," Cuccinelli said of the Chesapeake-based minister. "So I'm glad he's on this ticket, too."

Oh, but on the other:
"We are not defending any of our running mates' statements now or in the future," Cuccinelli said in a statement provided to The Virginian-Pilot. "The people of Virginia need to get comfortable with each candidate individually."
Evidently, Cuccinelli needs to get comfy with Jackson, too, though it's hard to see how that'll happen. The National Journal's headline sort of says it all: "Virginia Republicans Panicking Over Their Choice for Lieutenant Governor." Yep, their choice indeed. And like it or not, Cuccinelli pushed for the convention that saddled the GOP with Jackson, so it's his choice, too. Enjoy, suckers.

5:56 PM PT: Fundraising: April fundraising reports are now available for all six of the major party committees:

Committee Apr. Receipts Apr. Spent Cash-on-Hand CoH Change Debt
DCCC $5,441,006 $3,918,653 $10,395,357 $1,522,353 $4,125,000
NRCC $5,052,932 $4,414,616 $8,746,610 $638,316 $6,250,000
DSCC $3,540,000 $8,600,000 $200,000 $15,000,000
NRSC $3,560,000 $7,000,000 $1,700,000 $9,500,000
DNC $6,323,548 $6,825,264 $5,391,999 ($501,715) $20,634,237
RNC $7,218,685 $6,101,130 $9,789,407 $1,117,555 $0
Total Dem $15,304,555 $10,743,917 $24,387,357 $1,220,638 $39,759,237
Total GOP $15,831,617 $10,515,746 $25,536,017 $3,455,871 $15,750,000

Last month's totals are available here. For the first time all year, the NRSC outraised the DSCC for the month, albeit very narrowly. But there was pretty much parity across the board in April, and both parties continued to pay down their debts.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue May 21, 2013 at 06:00:10 AM PDT

  •  Hopefully a list of (5+ / 0-)

    the number of people unaccounted for in the OK tornadoes.

  •  Editing fail (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Who knew Gov. Martinez would be so popular in Minnesota?

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    22, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

    by JonathanMN on Tue May 21, 2013 at 06:44:37 AM PDT

  •  Clearly a list of good reasons (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, JBraden, bythesea, askew

    why the Illinois House hasn't passed marriage equality yet?

  •  PA-Gov-2022? PA-Sen? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ProgMD, geoneb, MichaelNY

    Popular Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro confirmed over the weekend that he isn't running for Governor or PA-13 next year, but has instead established the Keystone Reform PAC:

    Keystone Reform, the name of the PAC Shapiro plans to announce Monday, will raise money to fund what he called "pragmatic, results-oriented" Democrats who believe in fiscally efficient and accountable government.

    Another, unspoken aim: to make Shapiro a statewide player.

    "I want very much for myself and my supporters to have a voice in the broader political debate," Shapiro told The Inquirer in an interview....

    But Shapiro, just 16 months into his four-year term as a county commissioner, said, "There is a lot of work left to do." He also has four young children and said he wants to be a "serious presence in their lives."...

    He said he would like to use Keystone Reform to advance approaches such as that and zero-based budgeting. He said he also could see the group advocating to make the state's highly politicized legislative redistricting system into a nonpartisan process, for example, or pushing for gun-control laws.....

    "I love public service," said Shapiro, who turns 40 next month. "Just as there were prospects and opportunities this time, I presume that would occur in the future."

    •  Pa. senate seems a logical, and achievable next (0+ / 0-)

      step for Shapiro, provided the troika of commissioners continue to get along and handle county business well and amicably.

      "They will not collect a ransom in exchange for not crashing the American economy. The full faith and credit of the United States of America is not a bargaining chip."

      by TofG on Tue May 21, 2013 at 09:54:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That all sounds good (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      except zero-based budgeting. What a gimmick. Rule of thumb: if Newt Gingrich won't shut up about it, it's probably not very good.

      •  Well, zero-based budgeting (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        isn't mainly a Gingrich conceit--not that it's particularly useful.  Jimmy Carter talked about it incessantly in 1976, claiming it saved a lot of money in Georgia, but if he actually implemented it as President it didn't seem to make much impact from what I've read.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Tue May 21, 2013 at 12:31:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The basic idea is (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, MichaelNY

          you "start with zero" and justify every expenditure in your budget individually. I'm not saying it can never be effective, but I suspect the effectiveness is in situations where budgets are so ridiculous that any attempt to fix them is going to yield something. And the second time you go through this, people can just reuse their work. It's one-shot at best, and I'm not sure it's any better than just good accounting.

          I know Gingrich didn't create the idea, but it was one of his "big ideas" in 2011-12.

  •  ok, can someone explain this to me? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    apparently in the UK the gay marriage bill was threatened by a poison pill amendment which looked likely to pass but then an MP flipped and the amendment was defeated by a 305-vote margin. how exactly does that work? did that MP bring a lot of votes with him or did the Nay side just have a really high threshold to clear?

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue May 21, 2013 at 07:18:36 AM PDT

  •  Omaha Mayor: post mortem (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, David Nir, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    The Omaha World Harold has an analysis and a couple of precincts maps of the election (I know everyone here loves a map).  I won't go into details and I'll just let you read it on your own if you're interested, but it basically boils down to Democrats actually did turn out - they just didn't vote for Suttle.

    http://www.omaha.com/...

    So, after the election I said "I think it's an issue of running a bad campaign, not being a bad mayor."  Apparently I was exactly wrong.  The campaign was actually decent, he was just a (in the voters' views) bad mayor.  For what it's worth, I still think he could have done a better job in the campaign DEFENDING his actions as mayor.

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue May 21, 2013 at 07:50:11 AM PDT

    •  Very interesting (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, JDJase, Skaje, MichaelNY

      Also probably shows Suttle's gun safety advocacy probably wasn't much of a factor here.

      Still, it's kind of remarkable—if utterly expectable. Everyone hates when their taxes have to go up in order to make their communities livable, but of course, they hate having their services cut, too, so there's no winning for a guy like Suttle who probably just wanted to do the right thing.

      I really do think the fomenting of anti-tax attitudes by conservatives has gone a long way toward making this country ungovernable, with California being the best example.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Tue May 21, 2013 at 09:59:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SD-Sen: WTF?! (21+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Reid and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee wanted to recruit former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) as their candidate to replace Johnson in 2014. As he spent weeks attempting to clear the field for Herseth Sandlin, Reid met privately with Johnson and his wife to ask them to persuade their son Brendan not to run for the seat, sources say. Or at the very least, let Herseth Sandlin make her decision on whether to get into the race before deciding whether Brendan Johnson should jump in.

    But against Reid’s will, Daschle — Reid’s predecessor as Democratic leader and a South Dakota native — was privately encouraging a longtime former aide and personal friend, Rick Weiland, to mount a bid of his own.

    Daschle’s endorsement of Weiland helped persuade Herseth Sandlin to pass on the Senate race, according to Democratic sources close to the issue. Reid and top Senate Democrats were stunned and outraged by Daschle’s move, a sentiment Reid communicated directly to the former senator, according to several people familiar with the incident.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 21, 2013 at 08:15:11 AM PDT

  •  Time for another installment of (13+ / 0-)

    Guess who:

    Even when the PPP numbers seem reasonable, as these do, the firm’s memos accompanying its data usually have a clear Democratic tilt, highlighting results that seem to enhance the Democrat’s standing in the race. This memo is particularly misleading.

    While the PPP memo refers to ballot tests among Democratic and Republican voters and notes poll numbers that convey a sense of momentum for Markey, it never mentions independents, a key voter group in the state. Yet the cross-tabs released by PPP show Gomez leading among independents 56 percent to 33 percent, a 23-point margin that is considerably larger than Gomez’s own recent OnMessage, Inc. poll, which showed the Republican leading among independents 50 percent to 36 percent.

    Wait, you mean a poll conducted for a left-leaning client like the League of Conservation Voters might include a memo that highlights good news for that client's interests? NO WAY! But oh well, doesn't matter anyway:
    @brianjameswalsh @StuPolitics @BDayspring Scott Brown had a 21 pt lead with independents on our final poll last year and lost by 8
    @ppppolls via web

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue May 21, 2013 at 08:19:17 AM PDT

  •  Rundown of the big races in L.A. today (6+ / 0-)

    This article gives a nice description of the city-wide positions, propositions, school board memberships, and city council races on the L.A. ballot today.  It also sums up the differences between Garcetti and Gruel:

    On failing schools, Greuel jumped in stronger and sooner to support education reform while Garcetti, who is backed by the teachers union, jumped in later and with less enthusiasm; Garcetti is expected to rely more upon environmental groups to guide DWP's efforts to go green while Greuel is expected to rely more on DWP union leaders who back her race; Greuel is more concerned about the problems that density and development can bring while Garcetti is more avidly pro-development even in the face of local opposition; Garcetti is more likely to push a group of stakeholders toward his ideological goals while Greuel is more likely to broker an agreement among an array of stakeholders and put process before ideology; and, finally, Garcetti has a greater appetite for risk while Greuel is more cautious.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 21, 2013 at 08:56:41 AM PDT

    •  the very first part sounds like the best (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      uclabruin18, gabjoh

      reason to support Garcetti.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue May 21, 2013 at 09:32:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for linking (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

         but the L.A. Weakly article was typical of them, not always getting their facts straight and sensationalizing stories. At least now they figured out which district has Ana Cubas running against Curren Price; two weeks ago in the print edition they had her running in a district that doesn't even have a race this year. They dismissed City Attorney candidate Mike Feuer as boring without writing anything about the political differences between Mike and the incumbent Trutanich.  They had an article about the political "families" backing Cindy Montanez and Nury Martinez in CD-6 without a word about the policies of the two candidates.

          The L.A. Weekly has deteriorated a lot since the days that they had real political writers like Harold Meyerson and Marc Cooper writing for them.

          I am going to the polls in about an hour, giving a ride to my father and carrying my mother's absentee ballot in along with mine. I won't say it is the least interesting election ever, but the most exciting thing is that after 8PM we won't have to watch any more of those damn TV ads.   I am voting for Garcetti, Feuer, Ron Galperin for Controller, and Nancy Pearlman for LACCD Board of Trustees. We don't have a Council or LAUSD Board race here but I would vote for Cindy if I lived in CD-6.  I have Yes on C, abstain on D, No on E and Yes on F. If I get time I will put up a diary later today with more details and predictions.

      Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

      by Zack from the SFV on Tue May 21, 2013 at 09:52:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ...yeah (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      this seems like a pretty boring election.  The last couple "comparisons" are laughably subjective, and full of buzzwords with little meaning.

  •  What's going on in MO-08? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    First, Jason Smith, the Republican nominee in the special election to replace Jo Ann Emerson, picked up the endorsement of Sarah Palin. Now the Tea Party Express is endorsing him.

    This all seems a little unusual for a special election that wasn't supposed to be the slightest bit interesting, though in Palin's case, I honestly think that she just wanted to be able to say, "Let's send Mr. Smith to Washington."

    19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF junior, politically ambitious, and vocally liberal. "Still, where'd the lighter fluid come from?"

    by tqycolumbia on Tue May 21, 2013 at 09:02:29 AM PDT

  •  Excited for the elections today (6+ / 0-)

    I sent in my absentee ballot in last Friday for the LA mayor race!

    I am also looking forward to seeing Perez get into that runoff. I met her a few weeks ago and went canvassing for her in Bakersfield. It was really hot out and the voters I talked to on the most part were really nice. It gave me a chance to practice my Spanish too because there were a few voters who knew very little English.

    One highlight was that I met some very close friends of Perez while canvassing.

    Her campaign message also seemed very persuasive to voters who did not know much about Perez, especially her goal to increase the minimum wage to $9 an hour.

    Something I found interesting is that while Garcetti has connections with USC and is more popular among young voters, most of the young USC voters who are voting in my opinion seem to be supporting Greuel (I'm one of the few Garcetti voters there.)

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

    by Alibguy on Tue May 21, 2013 at 09:05:56 AM PDT

    •  nice (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      one of my old college friends is the director of operations for the Greuel campaign.
      Though I'm still rather neutral on this race

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 12:00:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I've got another one (9+ / 0-)

    Though this one people already know. But bear with me. Last week:

    Forget background checks and gun control, divisions within the GOP on immigration, and Republican intransigence on negotiating a budget deal with the president. The current triple play of Benghazi, the IRS and now the Justice Department’s seizure of journalists’ phone records has the potential to be a political game changer for 2014.

    It’s hard to overstate the potential significance of the past week. What we are witnessing is nothing less than a dramatic reversal of the nation’s political narrative — from how bad the Republican brand is and how President Barack Obama is going to mobilize public opinion against the GOP in the midterm elections to whether the Obama administration has become so arrogant that it believes it can stonewall Congress and the public.

    The series of revelations presents an unflattering picture of an administration that just 10 days ago looked poised and confident. Now it looks out of touch and unresponsive.

    Today:
    Some Republicans are so excited at the thought of multiple controversies dogging the White House over the next few months (or longer) that they are already foaming at the mouth.

    For example, on his syndicated radio show late last week, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee compared reports of the IRS targeting conservative groups seeking tax-exempt status to what happened in Nazi Germany.

    And, of course, you knew that some conservatives and Republicans (such as Glenn Beck, Oklahoma Sen. James M. Inhofe and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann) couldn’t resist mentioning the “I” word — impeachment — almost immediately as they struggled to show their anger and contempt for President Barack Obama and his administration.

    But Republicans ought to remember that they have seen this movie before, and the ending was not what they hoped for or expected.

    The last line of the new piece is a piece of work, too:
    The White House, on the other hand, must hope that Democrats can portray Republicans as placing a higher priority on embarrassing the president than on dealing with the day-to-day concerns of real people. For Obama, a foreign policy crisis might even be just what the doctor ordered.
    Yep—death and mayhem abroad. "Just what the doctor ordered!"

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue May 21, 2013 at 09:20:30 AM PDT

  •  CO Gov/Lol (15+ / 0-)
    Former Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey will run for Governor… of Colorado.
    http://www.abc6.com/...
  •  question about Santa Clara County, CA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    was the area in the cold war area sort of different from the rest of the bay area? For some reason I had always thought of the area as more like Southern California (think Antelope Valley) in that unlike the bay area (where a lot of the migration was from the NE), a lot of migrants came from points east to work in the defense plants and was very much geared towards a cold war economy and electronics. It was also more tolerating of SoCal like sprawl as the county quadrupled in population between 1950 and 1970.

    Another of my questions is this: if the area was indeed heavily dependent on the cold war economy, how come Don Edwards was able to win election so many times from that area? He was about as far removed from Scoop Jackson as possible according to this website:
    http://www.keywiki.org/...

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Tue May 21, 2013 at 10:50:10 AM PDT

    •  Lot of immigration (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, lordpet8, MichaelNY

      Santa Clara had a huge community of Vietnamese refugees during and after the war. Still does. I met quite a few at college. Many of their parents were socially conservative/fiscally liberal (i.e. Catholic), but tended to be extremely hawkish on foreign policy. I had a roommate whose mom supported the Iraq War because she thought somehow that would lead to taking another whack at the commies in Vietnam. Which complements the picture you present.

      Also, I believe there was/is a large community of Arab immigrants in that area. Which, if The Kite Runner is realistic in its depiction of that area during the late '70s, probably added to the same effect.

      •  Did you go to college in Santa Clara County? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm from there, though I'm really not equipped to answer the question.

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Tue May 21, 2013 at 12:24:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nah, Central Coast (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

          Cal Poly SLO to be exact. Which is an incredibly diverse school, about even proportions of whites and Asians. I had a Vietnamese roommate from Santa Clara and met a lot of other people from there as well through him.

        •  I'm from Santa Clara County (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Darth Jeff, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          I'm from Santa Clara County.  Moved there in 1964, and left 2008.

          When I moved there, the congressman was Gubser [Republican][why I remember that after 50 years, I cannot tell you]

          It became more Democratic consistently for the next decades, but this is similar to San Francisco, which had a series of Republican mayors about then.[moderate wing]

          I think it was part of the reshuffling of politics in California then, where the rural valley was Democratic, and the coastal cities were Republican
          [including Los Angeles], and nothing unique to Santa Clara County.

          And, of course, the redistricting opinions out of the Supreme court made major changes of the shift from rural to urban dominance, especially for the state legislature.

      •  Kite Runner was Alameda County no? n/t (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff, jncca, MichaelNY

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:48:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's set in Fremont I think (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I've never read the book or seen the movie but I saw the excellent stage adaptation at the San Jose Rep.  The family moves to Fremont (Alameda County) where a big proportion of Afghan immigrants live.  

          At least in the play (probably everywhere else too) the father is mentioned to be a stanch Republican due to his dislike of Carter, making him one of the very few Afghans in the community to be a GOPer.

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

          by Jeff Singer on Tue May 21, 2013 at 04:00:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  In the book: (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Darth Jeff

            It says that the father was a Republican because he favored Reagan's aggressive stance against the Soviets. He hated the Soviets for their Afghanistan invasion. The book also mentions that he was the only Republican in their apartment complex because it was a very poor area and thus favorable to Democrats.

            NY-03 (Home), NY-23 (College)

            by epez21 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 05:02:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Santa Clara County resident (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      There was certainly more of a defense industry than in the rest of the Bay Area (NASA is in Mountain View, and lots of tech was involved in the Cold War), but there were always some Hispanics in San Jose, Asian-Americans as well (the Middle Easterners are in Fremont, which is Alameda County), and of course Palo Alto which has Stanford and is the definition of "limousine liberal."

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Tue May 21, 2013 at 02:07:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-Gov poll (5+ / 0-)

    A new EPIC-MRA poll has Snyder and Schauer tied at 39%.

    http://www.mlive.com/...

  •  IA-01: ANOTHER Patrick Murphy? (10+ / 0-)

    This appears to be quite a good name for Democrats.

    British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

    by General Goose on Tue May 21, 2013 at 11:07:50 AM PDT

  •  CO: Recall effort against Dem rep fails (8+ / 0-)

    There were four recall efforts underway against Democratic lawmakers for their pro-gun control votes. One of those efforts, against Rep. Mike McLachan has failed.

    link.

    •  Mind if I snag that for my diary series? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, KingofSpades

      I'm doing a bunch of diaries on subjects and elections in the Four Corners states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah), and that seems like a decent one to start with.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Tue May 21, 2013 at 02:16:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  French Historian shots himself (9+ / 0-)

    in the head at the altar of Notre Dame to protest gay marriage rights. What a bunch of crazy fucks there are in this world. And how ironic that he a far-right Catholic would commit a cardinal sin to protest another cardinal sin.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/...

    And of course Le Pen had nothing but nice things to say about him. It was somewhat repulsive to see the whole incidents around this, but interesting to know that America isn't the only country stupid and messed up on this issue:

    One rightwing MP claimed the government was "killing children" by allowing same-sex married couples to adopt, while a senator said gay marriage would pave the way for people being able to marry animals or objects.

    MPs in favour of the bill – the most significant social reform since France banned the death penalty in 1981 – suffered death threats; skinheads attacked a gay bar in Lille, while rights groups reported a surge in homophobic attacks.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 11:21:38 AM PDT

    •  Er (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, OGGoldy

      This is getting pretty far afield.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Tue May 21, 2013 at 11:23:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I thought international politics were fair game (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

        People have been posting several stories leading up to the French Gay Marriage bill passing and being signed. I didn't think it would be too off the cuff to post one of the top google stories, that is really rocking the French political scene and is related to that gay marriage bill. I mean, this is really showcasing how radical the National Front is, which makes their typically pretty good support scary. How do I judge what kind of international story is fair game or not?

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 11:27:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  C'mon (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          "International politics" is not fair game here. That would cover everything! International electoral politics is fair game, but your comment had nothing to do with any French elections.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Tue May 21, 2013 at 12:19:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Okay then. I won't post anymore (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ChadmanFL

            stories relating to international gay marriage bills. Or austerity. Etc.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 12:26:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  You've always allowed a certain exception (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        on gay marriage issues given the number of teh gayz who are regulars here at DKE. As such, I would have assumed that this was just fine.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue May 21, 2013 at 04:13:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          You regularly allow posting on gay marriage in the U.S. whether it has direct electoral implication or not (and in fact have included such in the diary itself at times), so why not this?

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Tue May 21, 2013 at 04:14:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  How crazy suicidal people overseas react (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            to marriage equality is not quite the same thing as covering a vote moving through the legislature.

            25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 05:41:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

            What HoosierD said. We don't do posts on crazy anti-SSM protests or whatnot. We talk about polls, ballot measures, legislation & its potential horserace effects, etc. Some nut blows his brains out protesting gay marriage, of all things, I don't care what country it happens in. It's not DKE material.

            Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

            by David Nir on Wed May 22, 2013 at 05:36:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Shoots himself damn it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Stupid broken o key.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 11:24:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  one less idiot (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Addition by subtraction.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 11:29:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  addendum (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        None of the employees or tourists who were there should have had to see that, but the world is better off without people like that jerk. He also had links with far-right terrorist groups in the 1960s according to that article.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 11:38:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Sad new from Miami (10+ / 0-)

    http://miamiherald.typepad.com/...

    Former Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart son died on Sunday. I wasn't that much of a fan of the Balart Bros. w. the exception of Jose, who I think is a great reporter on Telemundo. I never had a disdain for Lincoln & Mario as politicians, even though I disagree on most issues they stood for.

    But regardless of politics, that's sad for a parent to lose a child at a young age.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 11:29:07 AM PDT

    •  I guess I never cared enough to check (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But I never knew that Mario, Lincoln and José were related!

      They have a 4th sibling, Rafael, who's a banker.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:07:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good news... For Al Franken? (6+ / 0-)

    I thought the Senate Good News Caucus only had John McCain as a member.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 21, 2013 at 11:59:00 AM PDT

  •  Cuccinelli not defending running mate's statements (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    Forced into an awkward arranged marriage, Cuccinelli’s top advisers have urged Jackson to put aside his social crusades and reinforce their campaign’s message on job growth. But until the campaign is comfortable that Jackson is on board with the plan, Cuccinelli is expected to keep his distance from Jackson after completing a two-day statewide tour with him on Tuesday.

    “We are not going to be defending our running mates’ statements, now or in the future,” Cuccinelli said in a written statement on Monday that sought to strike a balance between asserting his independence and not throwing Jackson overboard. “The people of Virginia need to get comfortable with each candidate individually, and that's what this process is all about."

    I also found this quote by Jackson strange.  It's as if he doesn't even want to be black.  With attitudes like these, plus the comparison of Planned Parenthood to the KKK, why should the GOP expect to get more black votes with a candidate like E.W. Jackson?
    “I am proud to say that I am not an African-American. I am an American!” declared Jackson, drawing roaring applause from convention-goers at the Richmond Coliseum.
    But here's a good point about the election:
    Democrats tried and failed to make the governor’s race a referendum on social issues in 2009 when conservative Republican Bob McDonnell led the ticket. Keeping his focus on jobs and the economy, McDonnell won in an election that laid the groundwork for the anti-Obama wave of 2010.
    Remember Bob McDonnell, a graduate of Pat Robertson's university (yes, Pat Robertson has a university) had some extreme social views prior to his run in 2009, basically the same views as Cooch.  That didn't stop him from winning in a landslide.
    •  I'm eagerly awaiting the next VA poll (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, JBraden, MichaelNY

      I'm actually feeling better about this election. Jackson will lose his race by double-digits, and the others will be much closer, but if McAuliffe winds up being even a slightly better politician than people give him credit for (which I can not speak to), then all three posts ought to be doable. And since Christie is expected to romp, we ought to get a good week of Republican panic after the results.

      Sadly, we'll probably still be hearing about the jackbooted thugs of the IRS by then. Ugh.

    •  Yeah (10+ / 0-)

      But 2009 was a mini-2010. Attitudes were already extremely sour about the economy and we were still in the midst of the brutal Season of Healthcare Reform. Democrats tried to talk about social issues as a way to distract from the economy, but the economy was too awful to not take center stage. We just didn't have anything better in our arsenal at the time.

      Put another way: If Cuccinelli thinks he's going to skate like McDonnell did, he's very likely mistaken.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Tue May 21, 2013 at 12:21:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also, I believe (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, NMLib, itskevin, LordMike, MichaelNY

        McDonnell didn't exude the right-wing craziness that Jackson does on a daily basis, so it was kinda a stretch to picture him as the author of that thesis.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 01:13:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Right (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, JBraden, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          McDonnell presented himself as a sober, mainstream guy. The thesis was bad, and his defense (wasn't it basically, "It was a youthful indiscretion!" when he'd been like 35 when he wrote it?) was worse.

          Unfortunately, the Creigh Deeds campaign merely used it as fuel for a few days' shrieking attacks, not all that different from any other day of that awful, themeless campaign.

  •  IL: Rep. Harris seems confident (10+ / 0-)

    that marriage equality will pass by the end of month.

    He is the main sponsor of the bill and Madigan says it's up to him to call for the vote. He wont do that until they have votes, and he says they will call for a vote by the end of the month(when the session ends).

  •  MI-Sen poll (7+ / 0-)

    An EPIC-MRA poll has Peters leading Rogers 37 to 30.

    http://www.mlive.com/...

  •  CO-St. Sen: You've never mapped CO Springs (4+ / 0-)

    I read somewhere that Morse's district is blue (it's the blue core of the City) and voted for Bennet (he got over 50%) over Buck in 2010.

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 12:10:30 PM PDT

  •  Erie County (PA) Executive Race (5+ / 0-)

    Pretty boring primary season here in the Keystone State, but one race I'll be watching is the Democratic primary for Erie County Executive.  My former congresswoman, Kathy Dahlkemper, is attempting a political comeback by primarying the incumbent, Barry Grossman.

    I don't have a horse in this race (non-resident of Erie County), but with little else to keep me interested, I'll keep my eye on this one.  FWIW, Kathy's campaign page on Facebook has 395 "likes," while Grossman's has only 21 (and no activity).

  •  The MN legislature ended the session on time (12+ / 0-)

    with a budget along with an increase in education funding an free all-day Kindergarten starting in 2014. It was touch and go for awhile and I know some posters here thought that going legalizing SSM before other issues would hurt the DFL going into 2014.  

    I am pretty confident that the DFL will hold the trifecta in 2014 now. I wasn't so sure about that a week ago.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Tue May 21, 2013 at 12:36:38 PM PDT

  •  Franken (6+ / 0-)

    With his opponents with somewhere between 10-20% name recognition, his ad team should be ready to pounce, particularly since his likely opponent, McFadden, completely unknown. Time to define the enemy before he gets a chance to define himself.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Tue May 21, 2013 at 12:59:56 PM PDT

  •  KY Senate- Stumbo releases Senate map (5+ / 0-)

    http://mycn2.com/...

    This obviously will not be enacted by the Senate, but could be the basis of a court drawn map. It pairs no incumbents. It splits Ohio County, which could be an issue. Members that get a worse district seem to be Sen. R.J. Palmer (D-Winchester), Damon Thayer (R-Georgetown), Brandon Smith (R-Hazard) and Jimmy Higdon (R-Lebanon).

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue May 21, 2013 at 02:06:22 PM PDT

    •  under a court drawn map (0+ / 0-)

      Dems will lose the house right because of population loss in eastern KY and growth in the Cincy burbs, right?

      Do you think the lawsuit was filed to expedite things or for the the GOP to try to force a court map for both chambers?

      •  This case was to expedite things. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        Beshear says he will call a special session in Sept.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:04:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  also (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is the federal prisoner count issue settled yet?

    •  Leaders in both chambers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      are okay with the special session Beshear says he will call this fall and will finish it then?

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:07:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  realistic redistricting targets? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      other than squeezing out one more GOP seat in Jefferson county and weakening a Fayette county Dem seat, what else can the GOP do?  

      •  They can eliminate (0+ / 0-)

        another Dem seat in Western KY, Eastern KY, and another seat in Louisville. They would pack Dems into one Lexington seat.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Tue May 21, 2013 at 08:03:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Isn't Stumbo from Hazard too? (0+ / 0-)

      Any chance he could run against Smith?

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:40:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nah, his HD is all of Floyd County. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        There is a State House Dem from Hazard, but I have no idea what he's about.  Dan Mongiardo is also from Hazard.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:45:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Mongiardo should run (0+ / 0-)

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:53:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But still (0+ / 0-)

            the GOP would draw in some southern counties that are more strongly red and not like this where Dems would have a sporting chance.

            "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 04:05:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  He won't win (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Even in this Stumbo map it is no better than a tossup, and I assure you the Senate GOP will add more southern KY counties to it making it at least lean to likely R affair.

  •  with most attention in Oregon on the fluoride vote (4+ / 0-)

    I'm going to be watching how Lane, Josephine, and Curry counties vote on local tax ballot measures for public safety funding. Curry County, according to this article, is flirting with bankruptcy, and the sheriff says his office might have to close if the tax doesn't pass.  Josephine County has even flirted with dissolution in the past because the people are just so unwilling to tax themselves to pay for basic services, several years ago closing down all the public libraries when the people refused to fund them.  While those counties are more conservative and generally anti-tax, Lane County has a coalition of voters who have repeatedly turned down taxes for public safety funding over the years, combining some anti-tax elements with some left-wingers who don't want to pay for more jail beds (which the tax there would be funding).

    This is in the shadow of the decline and apparent death of timber payments that these and many other counties got from the federal government in exchange for less forestry on public lands, and no property taxes being paid on the vast stretches of state and federal lands in these counties.  They've had to cut budgets severely in recent years as a result.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue May 21, 2013 at 02:52:43 PM PDT

    •  derp, link (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      here.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue May 21, 2013 at 02:53:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Is it the anti-tax movement really that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      strong in counties where Obama still almost got 40% of the vote and did even better in 2008?

      I mean, let me just note that even in plenty of the overwhelmingly anti-Obama, rural and suburban parishes of Louisiana, tax increases are regularly passed. In fact my parish, Ouachita, which is very suburban, with an extremely conservative white population and a politically apathetic black population, (for the most part), has easily passed large tax increases in recent history to support higher wages and expansions of the Parish Sheriff's Office, and once a few years earlier for teacher pay. We also have an extremely expansive public library system with some 6-8 branches open across the parish with good hours and locations and large selection plus public computers and internet. And this all in a Parish much more reliably Republican than even Josephine is.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:07:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The anti-tax movement is very strong (6+ / 0-)

        Just look at California, where the movement started and how Jerry Brown had to repeatedly tell the voters, "Hey I will destroy your schools unless you guys pay up," to finally get a tax raise that passed. Lots of people want a free lunch, even some Democratic voters.

        29, M, Swingnut, CA-38 resident. Chairman of the DKE Ginger Left-handed caucus. Huge Angels, Lakers, Bruins, Kings, Galaxy fan. Follow me on Twitter: @Artesialove

        by uclabruin18 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:14:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not The Anti-tax movement (5+ / 0-)

          CA has an incredibly high tax burden (if you'll excuse the framing). We're not opposed to taxes here. What you have is (1) an exorbitant, grotesquely large prison system that was immune to pretty much any cuts during the budget woes, (2) the "legacy" of asshole tough-on-crime governors who just locked everyone up, and (3) the further "legacy" of having a godawful system for raising revenue permanently enshrined into law. Politicians are always terrified of easing up on things like (2) out of fear of being held personally responsible, and until very recently doing anything on (3) was out of the question.

          Jerry Brown has no choice but to do something on (1), though he campaigned on it, and has some considerable accomplishments on that front.

      •  apparently in Curry and Josephine (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, ArkDem14

        where last I heard they were failing. Lane for the first time in years of trying is passing the tax for law enforcement. 'Bout time.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue May 21, 2013 at 11:05:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  In case anyone thought E.W. Jackson would moderate (10+ / 0-)

    Nope.

    “I say the things that I say because I’m a Christian, not because I hate anybody, but because I have religious values that matter to me,” Jackson told reporters at a campaign stop in Fredericksburg. “Attacking me because I hold to those principles is attacking every church-going person, every family that’s living a traditional family life, everybody who believes that we all deserve the right to live. So I don’t have anything to rephrase or apologize for. I would just say people should not paint me as one-dimensional.”
    While he's not giving us new material yet, it doesn't appear that he recognizes his past statements are a liability.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 21, 2013 at 02:55:02 PM PDT

    •  Calling gay people "sick" and "perverted" (5+ / 0-)

      is very much an attackable thing about him.

      I wonder what every major Republican felt when he won the convention.  Probably a cold sweat.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:22:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This guy is so dipped in delusion (5+ / 0-)

      it's almost pathetic.  As I said the other day, I read some articles about him from last Sept.-Oct. where he claimed that black Christians were turning away from Obama and Democrats, but wouldn't even back up so major a claim with so much as a measly anecdote.  And guess what, black turnout was up, Obama outperformed 2008 in many MS River delta counties, and got 93% of the AA vote.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:43:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think he even called it a rolling back (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

        of the 60's realignment when the black population went solidly Democratic.  Dude, if you're going to make such a earthshattering claim, you need corroboration other than vague details.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:53:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Like I commented below... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, askew

        ...I think Jackson is unelectable and we're going to take the L.G. office in a walk.

        If our nominee somehow blows it, he will be forever the party's worst shame for the remainder of his life.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue May 21, 2013 at 06:22:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Every time I see (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        how numerous his anti-gay statements are, my first thought is always that methinks he doth protest too much.

    •  harkens back to the 1970's (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      back when the religious right was able about banning gay folks and supporters from teaching.

      I guess there's at least one candidate the log cabins and GOP Proud will probably avoid like the plague.

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 05:06:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  maybe the craziest pol from VA? (0+ / 0-)

      I think he might be worse than Bill Scott

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Tue May 21, 2013 at 11:34:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  From the discussion above (12+ / 0-)

    of independent voting patterns, I went ahead and made a map shaded to show the size of the winning margins by state in 2008 if only independents voted.  While the only actual flips are Arizona, Kansas, Nebraska, and North Carolina, some of the shifts are still quite drastic in other states.


    (Click for full-size image)

    As you can see, Idaho and Utah are near tossups, as is New Jersey.  New Hampshire becomes one of the most Democratic states in the entire country, and North Carolina one of the most Republican.  Patterns are clearly noticeable, such as most of the South having extremely GOP-voting independents, yet the interior West independents being much more friendly to Democrats.  For the most part though, independent voting patterns do track the statewide margins, as the Northeast and West Coast independents are most Democratic, and Southern independents most Republican.

    However, another interesting map came about as I sought to compare independent voting margins directly to the actual statewide results in 2008.  The following map takes the independent voting margin and gives the difference with the actual result...blue meaning the independents voted more Dem than the state, red meaning the opposite.


    (Again, click for full-size image)

    Here it's even clearer just how relatively Democratic the interior West independents are.  North Carolina takes the prize at having the most relatively GOP-voting independents, as McCain won them by 21 points (while Obama narrowly carried the state).  Funny seeing Illinois having relatively GOP independents while Indiana's are relatively Dem.  Compared to the first map, you can see that independents in the two states actually voted about the same.  New Mexico wins the prize of having independents that exactly matched the statewide margin.  I also find it interesting that Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire's independents shift those states to the left, whereas Massachusetts, Connecticut, and especially Rhode Island's independents shift those states to the right.

    •  nice (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aamail6, MichaelNY

      It seems that in the south most self-identified indies are conservatives who left the Dems, while on the west coast and in the northeast most of them are Dem leaners who are too cool to identify as Dems.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:24:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The only time modern Utah is a swing state. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      Still, it gives me hope. If Utah has so many independents, and they're only barely Republican, that's good. If the Utah Dems can capture a majority of independents and a few Republicans, then we win.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Tue May 21, 2013 at 04:04:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pa. primary day: any competitive/meaningful races (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, andgarden

    for either party. Montgomery County just local races with only a few over minimum # of candidates.

    "They will not collect a ransom in exchange for not crashing the American economy. The full faith and credit of the United States of America is not a bargaining chip."

    by TofG on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:05:35 PM PDT

  •  Here is a longer term trend (6+ / 0-)

    for Republicans to be worried about in Wisconsin. Check out the 2008 total votes cast in Waukesha: 232,897. In 2012 it cast 243,856 votes. An increase of just 9,000 votes.

    Milwaukee county cast 475,192 votes in 2008, and 492,576 votes in 2012, an increase of 17,384 votes. In other words, the total increase in the number of votes cast in Milwaukee was more than double that of Waukesha. Generally, it would be a mischaracterization to say that conservative exurban counties around Milwaukee (which are the base for Wisconsin Republicans), are booming. Waukesha has had most mild population growth over the past 20 years, growing just 88,000 people between the 1990 census and the 2012 estimates, with very light growth since the 2000s. Meanwhile Democrats are doing a much better job at turnout in Milwaukee, especially with the growing minority populations like the Hispanic sector in the central part of the county. There's even still room for Democrats to grow there, turnout wise, while Republicans are essentially maxing out turnout in Waukesha every election and are at their ceiling there.

    Let's look at Dane County. In 2008, it cast 282,939 votes, In 2012 it cast 304,181, an increase of 21,958 votes. That's triple the increase of votes in Ozaukee and Washington counties, and 5000 more than the increase in votes in all three suburban Republican stronghold counties combined! The relative stability of turnout in the rest of the state's urban areas, along with the decline in the North Woods and other rural areas, and the politial moderation of the Fox valley means Republicans depend on the trio magnifico of Ozaukee, Waukesha, and Washington to erase whatever lead a Democrat comes out of Milwaukee with. But what happens when Milwaukee's turnout and total votes cast increases by 1000 more than all three of those counties combined? It means Republicans end up even further in the hole electorally right from the start.

    Wisconsin is bright for Democrats in the long-run because since 2000 Dane county has grown by almost 33%, looking at total votes cast in Presidential elections and grown even more Democratic/left to a non-marginal degree of 4%, while Milwaukee county has grown substantially more Democratic, left almost 6% more so since 2000, as the county becomes both more and more diverse, though it also has pockets of white urban gentrification that are extremely and reliably liberal as well.

    Portage, Eau Claire, Kenosha, and La Crosse counties have all seen steady growth over the last decade, especially Kenosha. Sauk County too has grown more than 12% over the past decade, looking at census records. The only real Democratic counties shrinking are the north lake counties, and even there Douglas county is holding even population wise, with tiny growth. Some of the Fox valley areas that are trending Democratic had decent growth, especially Brown and Outagamie.

    So all in all, I'd see the prospects for Wisconsin Democrats look pretty bright, not even considering the not-insignificant trends in the Driftless area, where Democrats have a great pick up opportunity this year due to long-term incumbent, and popular moderate GOPer Dale Schulz facing a primary from the right. It's going to become increasingly hard for Republicans to win statewide, at least not without massive falloffs in turnout, (like what happened in Milwaukee county in 2010, when turnout fell 134,000, a fall of 28% from 2008, but typical for the county which has bad midterm turnout by Wisconsin standards).

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:39:13 PM PDT

    •  the GOP trend in the northwoods (0+ / 0-)

      is making the PVI steady.

      •  The North Woods (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        are shrinking though, and in any case account for very little of the population of the state. They also haven't been overwhelmingly Democratic in recent history, so Democrats haven't depended on them to win close elections.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:46:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Baldwin also won Shultz' district (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It's also where Tommy Thompson calls home (though I doubt he had much of a home field advantage because he had been absentee for years).  I kinda hope Shultz is beaten in a primary so we can win it.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:47:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thompson is from Juneau County (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        I also subtracted incorrectly like an idiot in Waukesha's case.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 03:54:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  VA-Lt. Gov.: Jackson fought against desegregation: (7+ / 0-)

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...
    South Boston was segregating their public housing to keep out African-Americans and the feds stepped in to fix it.  Jackson strongly opposed and fought against the desegregation.

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 04:03:47 PM PDT

    •  Looks like (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, MichaelNY, askew

      another Clarence Thomas to me.  Wonder if he also has sexual harassment in his past.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 04:06:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  After chewing on this for a couple days... (6+ / 0-)

      ...I'm convinced we're going to take L.G. no matter what happens in Gov.  Jackson is unelectable.  Chopra or Northam would have to implode spectacularly to lose.

      I expect we take L.G. by 10-15 points.  Jackson is not going to run an earnest campaign.  I doubt there will be a lot of money for him.

      But I also doubt he hurts Cooch or Obenshain too much...but I'm open to being proven wrong on that.  I suppose some sort of negative synergy could doom all three of them together as the whackadoodle Muskateers, but Cooch for his part has been a smart campaigner in his career.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue May 21, 2013 at 06:20:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This Cooch quote on Jackson should be toxic (13+ / 0-)

    A good attack ad to tie the two together would be to show Jackson saying something insane with a video of Cooch saying "I'm glad he's on this ticket," following it.  Given that part of the Democrats' strategy will be to portray Cooch as an extremist this could reinforce that theme.    

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 21, 2013 at 04:23:07 PM PDT

    •  very clever idea (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, lordpet8, MichaelNY, Darth Jeff

      I wonder what does it take to be an ad producer? The most clever /devastating ad I can remember was the one that Sestak ran against Specter in that primary race for Semate.

      "Re-eleeectad", that ad was so devastating, it was no coming back from that for Specter. I remember Chris Matthews described it as Sestak putting the "dress" on Specter, and trying to get on a life boat off the Titanic, with that the dress on, posing as a lady (Democrat).

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Tue May 21, 2013 at 05:23:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Immigration reform just passed Senate Judiciary (11+ / 0-)

    committee, 13-5. There are 10 Dems on the committee. My guess is the GOP votes were, Graham, Flake(both Gang of 8) and probably Hatch. Some of the most conservative Republicans in the Senate are on Judiciary(Lee, Cruz, Cornyn, Coburn) so the vote is okay, imo.

    Getting a big majority in the Senate is important for the House. I cant see the House passing a comprehensive bill of its own.

    If the Senate bill gets 70+, then I think it will be hard for Boehner to block a floor vote.

    If not, then I think Dems can easily campaign on the issue in 2014.

  •  KY-Sen: That doesn't seem to bode well for (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    a Grimes candidacy. Though she does seem like she could be an interesting candidate. Maybe the same type of appeal as Shelli Yoder in Indiana. Though I'm sure with much more money do to the nature of the race.

    •  She seems like a horrendous choice (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY, James Allen
      In 2003, French Henry struck and killed a mother of four in a 2003 car accident as the woman was crossing the street on a bicycle. She later went on to discuss the emotional toll the accident took on her, including an appearance on the Oprah Winfrey show. There were no charges laid.
      Her husband faced numerous controversies that could be used against French Henry if she decides to run.
      Steve Henry was accused of violating state campaign laws during his gubernatorial campaign and ultimately made an Alford plea, in which a defendant maintains their innocence but admits there's enough evidence to convict, and paid multiple fines.

      Read more: http://thehill.com/...
      Follow us: @thehill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Tue May 21, 2013 at 05:32:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think a lot of Dems (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      seem to think Alison Grimes will pass on the Senate race. I tend to agree. She has many options for 2015 though, SoS, AG, and LG.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Tue May 21, 2013 at 08:12:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Which would still be available to her regardless. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, JBraden, MichaelNY, askew

        I really hope she makes the right decision, although the former state party chair is not a bad fallback.  And all this talk is like MT-Sen where some Dems are being talked up despite the fact that Schweitzer is likely to get in.  Some people get restless.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue May 21, 2013 at 08:23:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Bias in information provided by Local officials (0+ / 0-)

    http://scholar.harvard.edu/...

    Bias in information provided voter on how to vote.

    If you have an Hispanic name, expect no response or differential advice from that of an Anglo name

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