History of Seattle through the 1980s
Seattle was first settled by Europeans in the 1850s by the Denny Party, a small group of explorers who settled the city's land, then covered by a dense, mature pine forest, and turned it into a logging town. The Town of Seattle was twice incorporated in the 1860s, as the town's charter was voided due to corrupt dealings that led to its initial ratification. The 1880s were when the small town of Seattle rapidly became a city. In 1884, The Great Western Railroad came to Seattle. A few years later, in 1889, the Great Seattle Fire burned much of the city and the rebuilding of the city's buildings created thousands of new jobs. Due to these events, a population explosion occurred and the small town grew 1,112.5% in population from having 3,533 people in 1880 to a city home to 42,837 people in 1890.
Logging, manufacturing, and exporting dominated Seattle's economy between the 1890s and World War II, and Seattle's population grew from 42,837 in 1890 to 237,194 in 1910 thanks to rapid economic growth and prospertiy and also thanks to the Klondike Gold Rush of 1896. Due to its manufacturing history, Seattle's early politcs were dominated by organized labor.
World War I brought wartime manufacturing to Seattle, which helped launch a small company called Boeing. Seattle's population subsequently grew by 78,000 between 1910 and 1920 to 315,312. However, the end of the war brought a period of economic decline to Seattle thanks to a lack of demand for the wartime manufacturing industry it developed in the 1910s. However, Seattle began to develop its now-vibrant artistic history in the 1920s. The city grew modestly from 1920 to 1930 largely thanks to Boeing's gradual growth, but the city only grew by 3,000 people from 1930 until 1940.
World War II brought more wartime manufaturing and helped turn Boeing into a large and successful company. Seattle's population grew 27% to 467,591 from 1940 until 1950, and experienced a post-war economic boom from 1950 until 1960 when it grew 19.1% to 557,087.
The 1950s brought I-5 and I-90 to Seattle, with I-5 running north to south through the city and to its north and south, and I-90 connecting Seattle to the rural land east of it over Lake Washington via Mercer Island. In the process, I-5 helped develop Seattle's northern and southern suburbs in the 1950s and 60s. Seattle and its suburbs experienced a housing boom, with many of the residents of its wealthy northern half moving to affluent northern suburbs like Shoreline and many of its working class residents from the city's southern half moving to industrial suburbs to the south of the city such as Bryn Mawr, Burien, and Renton.
The post-war boom was Seattle's last period of rapid growth. With much of the city's population spilling over into the new suburbs, Seattle's population slightly shrunk in the 60s. The recession of 1969, right as Boeing had incurred $2 billion in debt developing its 747 aircraft model, forced Seattle's economy to diversify. The 1970s was, subsequently, a quiet period in Seattle's history, although Starbucks and Microsoft were both founded in Seattle in that period.
The 1980s and its tech boom turned the Seattle area around, economically. The early 80s was when Nordstrom truly grew into a national chain, the mid-80s was when Microsoft really took off into becoming the computer giant it is today, and the late 80s was when Starbucks begun to expand nationwide.
The Growth and Communities of the Eastside
The 70s and 80s in Seattle not only spawned Seattle's tech and commercial sector, but also caused a great deal of growth east of the city. The land east of Seattle across from Lake Washington offered gorgeous views of Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish, rolling hills, pine forests, and, most importantly, undeveloped land.
Mercer Island, in the middle of Lake Washington, grew in the 1950s and 1960s into one of Seattle's most elite suburbs, as did the clustered communities of Clyde Hill, Yarrow Point, Hunts Point, and Medina to Bellevue's northwest. These areas (known as the Gold Coast), along with parts of North Seattle, became home to Seattle's wealthiest people. Mercer Island, Yarrow Point, Hunts Point, and Medina all offered pristine shoreline properties with stunning views of either Seattle or Bellevue (in Mercer Island's case). For years, as is the case today, Mercer Island has had a very large Jewish population.
Much of Seattle's wealthy population, especially those employed downtown, stayed within city limits. Broadmoor, an gated community built in 1924 around a golf club in North Seattle, still leans Republican today and still is home to many of Seattle's wealthiest people. Other neighborhoods, particularly those with views of Lake Washington, also are home to some of Seattle's wealthiest people with some of Seattle's oldest money. Still, some "old money" families and plenty of "new money" businessmen and lawyers moved out to the Eastside.
While there had been some—largely upscale—population east of Lake Washington before the 1960s, especially on Mercer Island and in Hunts Point, Medina, Clyde Hill, and Yarrow Point, the 1960s began the Eastside's rapid growth and the tech boom in the 70s and 80s continued it, particularly in Bellevue, Kirkland, and Redmond. Kirkland and Bellevue provided largely undeveloped waterfront properties, which are at a premium in metro Seattle.
Bellevue, bordered by Lake Washington to its west and Lake Sammamish to its east, had long been a farming community with coal mines in its southern end. After the second of its floating bridges connecting it to Seattle across Lake Washington was completed in 1963, Bellevue's population took off in the 1960s and its population grew from 12,803 in 1960 to 61,102 in 1970. The emerging city's population then grew 21.6% to 73,903 in 1980, 17.6% to 86,847, and 26.1% to 109,569 in 2000. Bellevue emerged as a large, upper-middle class suburb between 1960 and 2000, and its 200 square acre downtown is the second largest urban center in Washington today. Bellevue has become a city in its own right, with many Eastside residents commuting to it for work. The tiny, incorporated town of Beaux Arts Village is surrounded by Bellevue and Lake Washington, and Newcastle, much like southern Bellevue, lies to the south of Bellevue. Newcastle's population was 7,737 in 2000, and much of it was annexed by Bellevue in the 1990s after only some of the then-CDP of Newcastle incorporated into a city in 1994.
The neighboring, upper-middle class communities of Kirkland and Redmond grew together in this time period as well. Redmond grew from having 8,541 people in 1960 to 45,256 in 2000, with its population nearly doubling between 1970 and 1980 from 11,031 to 23,318 and doubling again from 1980 to 2000 from 23,318 to 45,256. Redmond's growth largely centered around Microsoft, which built its Kirkland headquarters in 1985. Nintendo USA is also headquartered in Redmond. Kirkland, like Redmond, effectively doubled its population from 8,541 to 15,249 from 1960 to 1970. It also, like Redmond, doubled its population again, although this doubling only took one decade unlike Redmond's two when it grew from 18,779 in 1970 to 40,052 in 1980. Costco's first store was opened in Seattle in 1983, but it was headquartered in Kirkland. This gave Kirkland another similarity to Redmond. Kirkland's 2000 population sat at 45,054, almost identical to Redmond's population of 45,256.
On Lake Sammamish's eastern shore lies Sammamish, and to its southern shore lies Issaquah. Sammamish, largely upper-middle class, grew in the 70s and 80s as a commuter town to Bellevue and Redmond and its 2000 population sat at 34,104. Upscale Issaquah's population grew from 1,870 in 1960 to 11,212 in 2000, and this growth was onny furthered by Costco's move of its headquarters from Kirkland to Issaquah.
The Eastside Communities' 2000 Borders
The Political History of the Eastside
In the 1960s, most of the Eastside was included with the southern half of Seattle in Washington's 7th Congressional district, a largely working class, Democratic seat. The rest was in the Republican held 1st Congressional district, based in North Seattle and the adjacent suburbs. After redistricting, the northern half of Bellevue was shifted to the 1st district, although southern Bellevue and Mercer Island were left in the 7th district. Sammamish and Issaquah, both with small populations in the census of 1970, were in the Olympic Peninsula/Olympia/Southwest Washington-based, labor Democrat-filled 3rd Congressional district. The 1982 Almanac of American Politics (published in mid-1981), which analyzed the 1980 election cycle and speculated on what changes redistricting may bring, referred to Bellevue as "the most Republican part of the Seattle area" and referred to Mercer Island as "more Republican than Democratic."
Rapid population growth on the Eastside in the 1970s, in conjunction with Republicans controlling the State Legislature and the Governorship, enabled it to be the home of Washington's new 8th Congressional district after the 1982 redistricting process. The Eastside was so Republican back then that the 1982 Almanac of American Politics even speculated that if "too many Republican areas," referring to the Eastside, were to be added to the south Seattle-based 7th Congressional district in redistricting, the 7th district's Democratic incumbent would potentially be in danger of losing (and Democrats had, indeed, lost the 70s version of the 7th district in a 1978 special election).
After the state's Republican Governor, John Spellman, vetoed a partisan Republican redistricting plan that would have likely unseated two Democratic incumbents in 1982, Washington Republicans passed a less partisan map that gave the 8th a Republican lean and safened the 1st district by only leaving wealthy, lakefront areas of North Seattle within its boundaries.
Almost all of the Eastside, except for part of Redmond and the Gold Coast, were included in the new 8th district. The 8th district stretched from the working class, largely industrial suburbs south of Seattle and north of Tacoma, which were politically competitive, along the Puget Sound up around Democratic and working class Renton to the Eastside. The district also contained sparsely populated, rural areas of Pierce and King Counties. According to the 1986 Almanac of American Politics, the 8th district's portion of the Eastside was "heavily Republican" and its residents were "solidly conservative on economic issues; on cultural matters, particularly on environmental issues, they may be more liberal." The Eastside, about 1/4th of the district's population, gave it its durable Republican lean (WA-08 voted three points to the right of the country in the 1984 Presidential election).
In 1982, 8th district voters elected moderate Republican Rod Chandler, a former television anchor and State Representative from Redmond. Chandler had no trouble holding the 8th district until 1992, when he gave up his seat to unsuccessfully run for the US Senate against then-State Senator Patty Murray.
Chandler's open 8th Congressional district was reconfigured in the 1992 redistricting cycle by Washington's new redistricting commission, losing most of the Democratic-trending industrial suburbs along the Puget Sound that it contained in the 1980s, seeing as it was quite overpopulated come 1992. Much of the industrial areas of the 8th district in the 1980s became a large portion of the state's new Tacoma/Renton based 9th Congressional district.
The 8th district still contained a growing slice of Pierce County and much of its former Eastside territory. Meanwhile, the 1st district picked up Kirkland and the rest of Redmond from the 8th district and retained the Gold Coast (along with northwest Bellevue, Bellevue's wealthiest section) in an attempt to keep it competitive. The 1st district also picked up a Republican portion of Kitsap County, along with Democratic Bainbridge Island.
Republicans' efforts to keep the 1st Congressional district in their hands failed in 1992 when the blueing of its slice of North Seattle and its northern suburbs caused the district to vote two points to the left of the country in the Presidential election, and businesswoman Maria Cantwell was elected to the seat. The 8th district became the only Republican held district in the state in 1992 when Jay Inslee won Central Washington's 4th Congressional district and Cantwell was elected to the 1st district. Republican Jennifer Dunn, a former IBM systems engineer, property tax lobbyist for the King County Assessor's office, and Washington Republican Party Chairwoman, won the 8th district in 1992.
The 8th district had voted two points to the right of the country in the 1988 Presidential election and gave an unusually high percentage of its voteshare, 27%, to independent Ross Perot in 1992. Still, the district was decidedly Republican through the 1990s, especially downballot. As the 1996 Almanac of American Politics wrote, the 8th district was "the most affluent district in Washington, rivaled only by the 1st, market-oriented on economics, more liberal on the environment, tolerant on cultural issues; in partisan terms, it is also one of the two most Republican districts in the state." The Republican wave of 1994 turned Washington's delegation from 8-1 Democratic delegation into a 7-2 Republican delegation. Washington Republicans' dominance of Congressional elections was short-lived; the 9th district was lost in 1996, the 1st and 3rd districts were lost in 1998, and the 2nd district was lost in 2000.
By the mid-1990s, Mercer Island blued to the point of leaning Democratic and Bellevue had become competitive. However, even as Bellevue began to lean Democratic, Sammamish and the Gold Coast still leaned Republican by decade's end. Population and economic growth brought transplants from around the country, particularly from California, urban Seattleites, and culturally liberal, Democratic Asians largely employed by Microsoft and Nintendo. The Atwater strategy, along with the culture war of the late 1980s and the 1990s, alienated the sort of fiscally conservative, socially liberal, moderate Republicans that had kept the Eastside Republican for so long. Many of these voters became Democrats in the Clinton years, although the Eastside was still certainly Republican leaning, at least downballot, through the late 1990s.
The 2000 Elections and the Eastside
Jennifer Dunn unsuccessfully ran for House Majority Leader in 1998, only garnering 17% of her caucus' vote because she was too conservative for the Tuesday Group and other Moderate Republicans but not conservative enough to defeat Dick Armey and Steve Largent. Still, Dunn ran for reelection in 2000 and 2002. Through the 1990s to the 2000 election, Dunn was never held below 59.73% of the vote in a general election (and only held below 60% once). Dunn's moderate brand of conservatism fit the overwhelmingly pro-choice and pro-environmental protection, but fiscally conservative, district quite well. However, the 8th district voted for Al Gore in 2000, giving only 47% of the vote to George W. Bush, and voted less than a point to the left of the country as a whole. The Eastside was even more Democratic than the district as a whole, with only each town in the Gold Coast and Sammamish voting for George W. Bush. At the same time, Jennifer Dunn ran almost 13% ahead of Bush at nearly 60% of the vote. Dunn, an ardent Gingrich supporter, was incredibly gifted at political messaging considering how far ahead she ran of the increasingly unpopular, in the minds of Eastside voters, national Republican Party's Presidential nominees in the ballot box. The Eastside was not only better for Republicans downballot in Congressional elections, but also in the Senate election between the Republican incumbent, Senator Slade Gorton, and his Democratic challenger, former one term Congresswoman Maria Cantwell. Gorton narrowly lost statewide by just over 2,000 votes but won all towns and cities in the Eastside, albeit some of them narrowly, outside of Mercer Island, Kirkland, and Issaquah. Winning Mercer Island and/or Kirkland or performing slightly better in the Eastside could have propelled him to victory, but he performed far stronger than President Bush did there, largely a testament to the Eastside's Republican heritage. Still, Jennifer Dunn performed even stronger than Gorton did, even when the strength of their challengers is accounted for.
Below are maps that show how Jennifer Dunn and George W. Bush performed in the various communities of the Eastside in 2000. Note that I do not have exact precinct splits for Bellevue, so all of Bellevue will be colored while the entire city was not in the 8th district.
The color key for every map in this article will be as follows:
Navy: 63+% Democratic
Blue: 57-63% Democratic
Dodger Blue: 53-57% Democratic
Sky Blue: 50-53% Democratic
Salmon: 50-53% Republican
Red: 53-57% Republican
Crimson: 57-63% Republican
Reddish Brown: 63+% Republican
2000 Presidential Election on the Eastside (Bush/Gore, Two-way national average: Bush 48.33, Two-way state average: 49.7% Bush)
2000 US Senate Election on the Eastside (Gorton/Cantwell, Two-way state average: Gorton 49.94%)
2000 WA-08 Election on the Eastside (Dunn/Behrens-Benedict, Two-way district average: Dunn 63.58%)
The 2004 Elections and the Eastside
In the 2002 redistricting cycle, Republicans decided to forfeit the now fairly-solidly Democratic 1st district. Therefore, the state's redistricting commission shifted the Gold Coast towns and northwest Bellevue to the 8th district, along with a Republican-leaning slice of Redmond (including Microsoft headquarters). The new 8th district had a nearly identical partisan composition to the old 8th district's. Jennifer Dunn won reelection for the final time in 2002 with 60% of the vote
For the 2004 general election for the 8th district, Republicans nominated King County Sheriff Dave Reichert of Auburn and Democrats nominated progressive radio talk show host Dave Ross. Reichert's claim to fame was that he headed up the eventually successful, decades-long search for the Green River Killer who terrorized the Puget Sound region with his spree killings of young women. Reichert ran as a center-right conservative, in favor of offshore drilling and drilling in the ANWR, against abortion rights (except for the cases of rape, incest, and when the mother's life is in danger), and in favor of the War on Terror. All of these positions were--at least slightly--at odds with the positions of the average 8th district voter. The Seattle Times endorsed Ross in this editorial:
"Democrat Dave Ross' moderation and his broad sophistication on wider world issues makes him the better candidate for the 8th Congressional District.
He is also a better fit for the values of the 8th, which is becoming a swing district for good reason. The demographic shifts in maturing Eastside cities make the district less reliably Republican than it has been historically. U.S. Rep. Jennifer Dunn, who is retiring, endorses Republican Sheriff Dave Reichert to succeed her, yet he is far more conservative than she. That isn't so important in a sheriff, a job that Reichert does admirably, but it is incredibly so for a member of Congress representing such a moderate district.
Ross, a former radio talk-show host, has spent 17 years discussing domestic and foreign policy and broadcasting from many hot spots in the world, including Iraq and Jerusalem.
Ross opposes the war, drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and individually managed Social Security accounts. He supports expansion of embryonic stem-cell research, limitations on assault weapons and a woman's right to choose.
Reichert differs with him on every point.
The test for Democrat Ross will be whether he can translate his smart, pithy sensibilities into results in a Republican-controlled Congress with people who have more at stake than a desire to be entertained. Ross' health-care plan, published on his Web site, is laudable but improbable, given the realities of federal budget strife.
Sheriff Reichert is a tremendous public servant with proven leadership. But Ross' command of the issues facing Congress gives him the edge.
The Times endorses Dave Ross for the 8th Congressional District seat."
Regardless, Reichert won with 52.44% of the two-way vote share, a far closer race than Dunn ever experienced.
At the same time, John Kerry won the 8th district with over 52% of the two-way vote share. Kerry improved over Al Gore's performances in most of the Eastside, although Bush barely won Sammamish and solidly won each of the towns of the Gold Coast, although he slipped in each.
Meanwhile, Republican State Senator Dino Rossi of Sammamish, who was Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee and had closed a two billion dollar deficit without raising taxes, was the Republicans' first strong candidate for Governor in decades. He ran against Christine Gregoire of Auburn, a solidly liberal Democrat. Rossi was slightly favored for much of the cycle and won on election night by 261 votes. The race went to a recount. After the recount, Christine Gregoire won by 129 votes in the narrowest gubernatorial election in American history and Rossi declined to challenge the results to the state's Supreme Court after a judge in Chelan County ruled against Rossi's claim that the integrity of the election was compromised.
Rossi won the entire Eastside outside of Mercer Island, Kirkland, and Redmond, and lost Kirkland and Redmond by less than a point. He also narrowly lost Mercer Island. Had he have won any of these towns, he likely would have been elected Governor, establishing the trend of the Eastside being somewhat of a bellwether in statewide elections.
2004 Presidential Election on the Eastside (Busy/Kerry, Two-way national average: Bush 51.2%)
2004 Gubernatorial Election on the Eastside (Rossi/Gregoire, Two-way state average: Gregoire 50.003%)
2004 WA-08 Election on the Eastside (Reichert/Ross, Two-way district average: Reichert 52.44%)
The 2008 Elections and the Eastside
Like in so many other places around the country, the 2006 general elections were a nightmare for Republicans in Washington State and on the Eastside. Republican State Senator Rodney Tom of northern Bellevue switched parties to become a Democrat in March of 2006, likely because he realized how hard the Eastside was trending away from Republicans and how rough of an election he would have as a Republican in 2006. Dave Reichert was narrowly reelected with 51.46% of the vote against Darcy Burner, a former Microsoft Marketing Manager and a favorite of netroots online progressive communities. Reichert had somewhat moderated from his center-right 2004 campaign promises in his initial term, casting some environmental votes with the Democratic minority and was only one of five Republicans to side with the Democratic minority on the Terri Schiavo vote. Reichert's opponent ran as a pure progressive, and voters in the 8th, even as they cast their ballots decidedly for Maria Cantwell for Senate against ex-Safeco CEO Mike McGavick, reelected Reichert. While he lost the Eastside as a whole, Reichert performed well enough on the Eastside to win.
The 2008 elections brought another world of hurt to Washington Republicans. Dino Rossi sought a rematch but lost with just under 47% of the vote statewide and, like in most of the state, his performance fell on the Eastside. Senator John McCain absolutely tanked on the Eastside, falling particularly hard on the Gold Coast and in Sammamish, where he just missed reaching 40% only four years after George W. Bush narrowly won Sammamish in 2004. Fatigue from the War on Terror, the selection of firebrand Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as Senator John McCain's running mate, a growing Asian population, and the perception from Eastside voters of the national Republican Party becoming more and more extreme on social and environmental issues caused further slippage on the Eastside. Senator Barack Obama broke 63% in almost every non-Gold Coast town and city in the district.
2008 also brought a rematch between the 2006 candidates for Washington's 8th Congressional district. Then-two term Congressman Dave Reichert battled all cycle long against Darcy Burner, who did not moderate her stances even as she lost in 2006 with a strong headwind on her side. Reichert once again ran as a moderate as he had in 2006 and won reelection, performing surprisingly strongly on the Eastside for a Republican in 2008. Even as John McCain fell to 39.9% in Sammamish, Reichert won it with 53.97%. Reichert also ran 13.5% ahead on Mercer Island, 21% ahead in tiny Beaux Arts Village, 11% ahead in Eastgate, 12% ahead in Newcastle (he won it as McCain only reached 38% there), 12% ahead in Bellevue, 15% ahead in Medina, 13% ahead in Clyde Hill, 11% ahead in Hunts Point, and 17% ahead in Yarrow Point. While Eastside voters have largely been written off as unwinnable for Republicans, moderate Republicans like Dave Reichert run far ahead of the national ticket on the Eastside. At the same time, moderate Republican and Mercer Island City Councilman Steve Litzow nearly won the race for the 41st State Legislative district's 1st House seat (each State Legislative district corresponds to one Senate seat and two House districts) against Democrat Marcie Maxwell, running around 13% ahead of John McCain.
The 2008 Elections and the Eastside
2008 Presidential Election on the Eastside (McCain/Obama, Two-way national average: McCain 46.3%)
2008 Gubernatorial Election on the Eastside (Rossi/Gregoire, Two-way state average: Rossi 46.76%)
2008 WA-08 Election on the Eastside (Reichert/Burner, Two-way district average: Reichert 52.78%)
The 2012 Elections and the Eastside
While 2010 was a strong year for Republicans nationally, it was only a decent year for Republicans on the Eastside. Dave Reichert faced a strong challenge from his toughest competitor yet, Suzan DelBene, a wealthy former Microsoft Executive and a Medina resident. DelBene ran as somewhat of a moderate, business friendly Democrat, which was a far better fit for the 8th district and the Eastside than Darcy Burner's political profile. Even though the year was prime for Republicans nationally, Reichert's final vote-share fell to just 52.05% from his '08 share of 52.78%. Reichert also lost the Seattle Times' endorsement, which he had won in '06 and '08, after being caught on tape discussing how his vote in favor of Cap & Trade was a vote meant to please moderates in his district and not one that he particularly liked casting. Reichert's performance made national Republicans wonder if DelBene could have defeated him in a better year.
At the same time, moderate Republican Mercer Island Councilman Steve Litzow, who had narrowly lost a race for the 41st State Legislative district's 1st House seat in 2008, narrowly defeated incumbent Democratic State Senator Randy Gordon of Bellevue to win the 41st State Senate district. Additionally, Democratic State Senator Rodney Tom, the northern Bellevue Democrat who switched parties while serving in the State Senate in 2006, almost lost his race against a moderate Republican. Moderate Republicans, once again performed strongly on the Eastside.
The Washington State Redistricting Commission redrew Washington's Congressional districts in 2011 and released its proposal in December of that year. After adding a Democratic, Olympia-centric 10th district, the Republican and Democratic commissioners agreed to draw three Republican districts, six Democratic districts, and a swing district that slightly leaned Democratic. The 8th district lost all of its Eastside territory, aside from Sammamish and Issaquah, in order to shore up Congressman Reichert's electoral chances so that it could cross the Cascades Mountains to pick up more Republicans. The fact that once-heavily Republican Bellevue, Newcastle, and Mercer Island likely had to be shed from the 8th district for Republicans to hold it for the decade is a testament to how far the Eastside has trended left thanks to demographic changes and a leftward shift amongst socially moderate/liberal white collar suburbanites in reaction to the Republicans' blue collar-centric Atwater strategy and the party's social/fiscal conservative fusionism.
The National Presidential ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan rebounded strongly on the Gold Coast and in Beaux Arts Village in 2012, causing each community to trend between 5-10 points to the right as compared to 2008. President Obama's "fair share" rhetoric about the taxation of the nation's wealthiest residents caused a poor reaction. Still, George W. Bush put up stronger performances on the Gold Coast in 2000 and 2004. Mercer Island only trended a point rightward from 2008 and 2012, but wealthy places with high Jewish populations did not trend as hard to the right in 2012 as most wealthy areas did nationwide. Kirkland and Issaquah trended under a point to the right, Newcastle and Sammamish trended a point to the right, and Bellevue trended two points rightward as compared to the nation in 2012. However, Redmond trended nearly two points to the left as compared to the nation, with Mitt Romney barely improving over Senator John McCain's '08 performance, largely thanks to Asian growth (and Asians trended leftward nationally in 2012 as compared to 2008). This leftward trend in Redmond and the nearly stand pat nature of Kirkland likely helped make Republican John Koster's ultimately futile bid for the competitive 1st Congressional district against 2010 8th district Democratic nominee Suzan DelBene far more difficult.
The 2012 Washington Gubernatorial election featured Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna of Bellevue running against 1st district Congressman Jay Inslee of Bainbridge Island. McKenna put up impressive performances statewide and on the Eastside in his '04 and '08 bids for Attorney General, and Republicans hoped he could break the nation's longest single-party gubernatorial losing streak (Republicans had not won the governor's mansion since the 1980 elections). McKenna put up a strong performance statewide and on the Eastside, but his narrow losses in Bellevue and Issaquah and on Mercer Island likely foreshadowed his narrow statewide loss.
The biggest bright spot for Eastside Republicans (and Washington Republicans as a whole) was State Senator Steve Litzow's reelection bid. In redistricting, his district picked up more of fast-growing Issaquah and nearly half of Sammamish. His narrow victory in 2010 concerned Washington Republicans in terms of his reelection prospects, but Litzow ran an extremely strong race against Democrat Maureen Judge, also of Mercer Island. Litzow, a former Washington NARAL PAC board member, became the Republican face of the Washington United for Marriage campaign. At the same time, Litzow was a decided fiscal conservative in the State Senate. Litzow, a strong fiscal conservative, voted for SB 6636 (Requires a Balanced Budget), SB 6378 (Amends State Employee Pension System to reduce rate of return and increases benefit reduction on state employees who retire early, are at least 55 and have 30 years service), and SB 5940 (Amends Public School Employees Retirement Benefits).
Litzow was endorsed for reelection by scores of Democratic groups and his reelection campaign was co-chaired by outgoing Democratic State Representative Deb Eddy, of Renton. His reelection was also recommended by the Seattle Times editorial board, which wrote him an absolutely glowing endorsement.
Here's what the editorial had to say:
"STATE Sen. Steve Litzow is an independent-minded, strong advocate of public education and working families. The Mercer Island Republican has earned a second term in office.
Litzow's voice in the Legislature is critical in Olympia. He was the ranking member on the Senate Early Learning and K-12 Education Committee and served on the Senate Financial Institutions, Housing and Insurance Committee. He would continue to be a leader in those areas.
Litzow is part of a recent cadre of moderate Republicans, including state Sens. Joe Fain of Auburn and Andy Hill of Redmond, working across the aisle with moderate Democrats to push through key reforms in government. How politically inclusive is Litzow? His re-election campaign co-chair is Deb Eddy, the Kirkland Democrat who retired this year from the state House of Representatives.
Litzow led the effort to exchange a seniority-based layoff policy for teachers with one based on performance. He was also a leader in bringing major reform to the billion-dollar health-insurance program for school employees.
His independent streak sharpened earlier this spring when he became the first Republican in the Senate to publicly support gay marriage. Litzow showed he was willing to take the heat from the conservative wing of his party on an important issue.
Litzow's opponent, Maureen Judge, is a businesswoman and credible candidate. The Democrat says she is a stronger backer of women's issues than Litzow, pointing to the lawmaker's no vote this session on the Reproductive Parity Act, meant to ensure access to abortion insurance coverage after the federal health care law takes effect.
But Litzow is pro-abortion rights. The bill was a pawn in a game of political brinkmanship by Democrats and Republicans battling for control of the budget. The bill will have its day, and likely Litzow's support.
For his experience, independence and commitment to education, Litzow deserves another term."
http://seattletimes.com/...
Ultimately, Steve Litzow was reelected with nearly 55% of the vote districtwide, only narrowly losing the 41st district's slice of working class, heavily Democratic Renton. Litzow ran strongly in every town in the district, running almost 20 points ahead of Mitt Romney on Mercer Island and around 15 points ahead of the national ticket in much of his district.
2012 Presidential Election on the Eastside (Romney/Obama, Two-way national average: Romney 48.04 %)
2012 Gubernatorial Election on the Eastside (McKenna/Inslee, Two-way state average: McKenna 48.46%)
2012 WA SD-41 Election on the Eastside (Litzow/Judge, Two-way district average: Litzow 54.04%)
Conclusions and Looking Ahead
The Eastside has become somewhat of a bellwether in Washington State politics, with every candidate running statewide who narrowly lost statewide in the past decade, like Dino Rossi in 2004 and Rob McKenna in 2010, also narrowly losing the Eastside.
While Mitt Romney did not rebound for national Republicans on the Eastside as much as many had hoped, this was the first election in over a decade that the Eastside did not trend to the left. Republicans hope that the district will not continue to trend left. The best way to ensure this would be for Republicans to help make Steve Litzow the face of the Republican Party on the Eastside. Litzow, now Chairman of the State Senate Early Learning and K-12 Education Committee, would make an excellent Gubernatorial candidate in 2016 or 2020. Litzow has become a power broker in the State Senate and one of his ambitious reforms was recently signed into law by Governor Inslee and was lauded by both sides of the aisle. Rob McKenna would also make a strong candidate to run against Jay Inslee in 2016, and a McKenna victory and the subsequent policies passed could help rehabilitate Republicans' image on the Eastside.