The 2011 redistricting cycle was a bonanza for Illinois Democrats, flipping the state delegation and the map upside down. Despite being a relatively clean and effective gerrymander, it fell short in quite a few places. In this map, I want correct these deficiencies and push the Democratic numbers to the limit short of dummymandering or baconmandering the state.
In this map, the guidelines I used were as follows:
- All Democratic incumbents kept their homes in their districts. GOP incumbents, well, not my problem.
- Former mayor Richard Daley's ancestral home in Bridgeport is kept in Dan Lipinski's district.
- Dan Lipinski is made safer from a primary challenge. Like most people on this site, I don't like him, but blame Michael Madigan for that and the GOP-heavy precincts had to go somewhere.
- 58% Obama was the benchmark that I used for all Democratic districts except for the two downstate ones.
Chicagoland
Downstate Illinois
Details
IL-01 (blue) – Chicago's South Side: Hyde Park, Orland Park, Tinley Park
Deviation: +60
Population: 37.5% white, 52.0% black, 6.8% Latino, 2.2% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.3% other
VAP: 39.2% white, 51.5% black, 5.7% Latino, 2.4% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.1% other
2008 election: 79.2% Obama, 20.2% McCain, 0.6% other
2008 PVI: D+26
Incumbent: Bobby Rush (D–Chicago)
Rating: Safe Democratic
President Obama still lives here, the district is still strongly Democratic, and Bobby Rush will still be reelected here.
IL-02 (green) – Chicago's South Side: Chicago Heights, Manteno, Kankakee
Deviation: −10
Population: 33.7% white, 51.9% black, 12.2% Latino, 0.5% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 1.5% other
VAP: 37.2% white, 50.5% black, 10.5% Latino, 0.6% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 1.1% other
2008 election: 78.9% Obama, 20.4% McCain, 0.8% other
2008 PVI: D+26
Incumbent: Robin Kelly (D–Matteson), Adam Kinzinger (R–Channahon)
Rating: Safe Democratic
This district would have been drawn when Jesse Jackson, Jr. was still in the House, and I think he still lives here. But it's pointless now, since it's Robin Kelly's time to shine. Kinzinger lives here, but he'll have to run somewhere else if he still wants a political career.
IL-03 (purple) – Southwestern Chicago: Bridgeport, Hinsdale, Oak Lawn
Deviation: +34
Population: 61.1% white, 5.5% black, 28.6% Latino, 3.6% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.1% other
VAP: 65.5% white, 5.4% black, 24.5% Latino, 3.8% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 0.8% other
2008 election: 59.7% Obama, 38.9% McCain, 1.3% other
2008 PVI: D+7
Incumbent: Dan Lipinski (D–Western Springs)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Sorry, Dan Lipinski is not going away anytime soon, not with state house speaker Michael Madigan still around calling the shots.
IL-04 (red) – Latino Earmuffs: Chicago, Elmwood Park, Cicero
Deviation: +26
Population: 27.2% white, 6.3% black, 63.4% Latino, 2.1% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.0% other
VAP: 32.6% white, 6.5% black, 57.5% Latino, 2.4% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 0.8% other
2008 election: 79.5% Obama, 19.1% McCain, 1.3% other
2008 PVI: D+27
Incumbent: Luis Gutiérrez (D–Chicago)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The arms are a bit thicker for the sake of cleaner lines, but the basic shape and partisan tilt remains the same.
IL-05 (gold) – Chicago's North Side, Elmhurst, Oak Brook, Burr Ridge
Deviation: −85
Population: 65.8% white, 3.7% black, 20.8% Latino, 7.8% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.8% other
VAP: 69.2% white, 3.5% black, 17.8% Latino, 7.9% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.4% other
2008 election: 69.5% Obama, 29.2% McCain, 1.4% other
2008 PVI: D+17
Incumbent: Mike Quigley (D–Chicago)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The district, like its real-world incarnation, takes in the North Side and the western inner Chicago suburbs. It absorbs most of the dark-red areas in eastern DuPage County without much of a dent on Democratic performance.
IL-06 (teal) – Western Chicago suburbs/exurbs: Downers Grove, Elgin, DeKalb
Deviation: +6
Population: 65.6% white, 5.2% black, 18.7% Latino, 8.8% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.6% other
VAP: 69.7% white, 4.7% black, 15.5% Latino, 8.8% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.1% other
2008 election: 58.0% Obama, 40.5% McCain, 1.5% other
2008 PVI: D+5
Incumbent: none
Rating: Likely Democratic
This is the first radically redrawn district. Peter Roskam's home and base of Wheaton is carved out and blue DeKalb is tacked on. For some reason, DeKalb was left stranded in Adam Kinzinger's IL-16. Did someone in or from DeKalb offend Michael Madigan or something?
Given Obama's overperformance in 2008, I'm not sure if this could be considered safe enough for a Democrat; Obama would have garnered around 54% in 2012. I can say, however, that no Republican other than Mark Kirk would survive in such a blue district. Judy Biggert could conceivably run here, but much of it is new to her.
IL-07 (dark gray) – Central Chicago
Deviation: −78
Population: 22.2% white, 52.6% black, 18.3% Latino, 5.3% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.4% other
VAP: 26.4% white, 50.1% black, 15.9% Latino, 6.2% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.2% other
2008 election: 90.4% Obama, 9.0% McCain, 0.6% other
2008 PVI: D+37
Incumbent: Danny Davis (D–Chicago)
Rating: Safe Democratic
If someone can find a way to reduce the vote-sinkiness of this district it would be great.
IL-08 (slate blue) – Chicago's northwestern suburbs: Bloomingdale, Schaumburg, Round Lake Beach
Deviation: −52
Population: 65.5% white, 2.8% black, 18.7% Latino, 11.3% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.6% other
VAP: 69.5% white, 2.5% black, 15.7% Latino, 11.1% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.0% other
2008 election: 58.3% Obama, 40.5% McCain, 1.2% other
2008 PVI: D+5
Incumbent: Tammy Duckworth (D–Hoffman Estates)
Rating: Likely Democratic
Quite frankly, as much as I like Duckworth, she might be the one Democratic candidate that could lose this district to Joe Walsh. Others should have an easier time, though this district isn't going to be a cakewalk for any Democrat regardless.
IL-09 (cyan) – Northern Chicago suburbs: Evanston, Park Ridge, Arlington Heights
Deviation: −97
Population: 64.4% white, 8.3% black, 15.1% Latino, 10.0% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 2.1% other
VAP: 67.3% white, 8.0% black, 12.9% Latino, 10.1% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.6% other
2008 election: 67.9% Obama, 30.9% McCain, 1.3% other
2008 PVI: D+15
Incumbent: Jan Schakowsky (D–Evanston)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Schakowsky loses the arm taking in rich campaign donors on the Lake Michigan shore, but I couldn't care less about that.
IL-10 (deep pink) – Northern Chicago suburbs: Waukegan, Lake Forest, Skokie
Deviation: +51
Population: 62.6% white, 6.9% black, 17.3% Latino, 11.1% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 2.0% other
VAP: 65.9% white, 6.5% black, 14.6% Latino, 11.5% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.4% other
2008 election: 63.3% Obama, 35.7% McCain, 1.0% other
2008 PVI: D+10
Incumbent: Brad Schneider (D–Deerfield)
Rating: Likely Democratic
This district is even bluer than real-world version, so Schneider should have an easier time fending off Robert Dold!
IL-11 (chatreuse) – Chicago exurbs: Aurora, Naperville, Joliet
Deviation: −68
Population: 53.9% white, 11.0% black, 27.8% Latino, 5.6% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.6% other
VAP: 58.7% white, 10.7% black, 23.9% Latino, 5.6% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.0% other
2008 election: 62.0% Obama, 36.8% McCain, 1.2% other
2008 PVI: D+9
Incumbent: Bill Foster (D–Naperville)
Rating: Safe Democratic
A blocker version of the current iteration, Foster should be comfortable here. It now also includes his former home in Batavia.
IL-12 (cornflower blue) – Southwestern Illinois: East St. Louis, Belleville, Carbondale
Deviation: −19
Population: 77.5% white, 16.7% black, 2.8% Latino, 1.1% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 1.7% other
VAP: 80.0% white, 15.3% black, 2.4% Latino, 1.1% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 1.6% other
2008 election: 56.1% Obama, 42.2% McCain, 1.6% other
2008 PVI: D+3
Incumbent: Bill Enyart (D–Belleville)
Rating: Safe Democratic
This iteration is a point and a half bluer than the current district, and Obama should have won this district in 2012.
IL-13 (dark salmon) – Central Illinois: Peoria, Springfield, Bloomington, Decatur, Champaign
Deviation: +45
Population: 75.9% white, 14.3% black, 3.7% Latino, 3.4% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 2.4% other
VAP: 79.2% white, 12.3% black, 3.2% Latino, 3.7% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 1.3% other
2008 election: 57.8% Obama, 40.4% McCain, 1.8% other
2008 PVI: D+5
Incumbent: none
Rating: Likely Democratic
If David Gill loses this district, he should get out of politics ASAP.
IL-14 (olive) – Northern scraps: McHenry, Crystal Lake, Wheaton
Deviation: +11
Population: 84.8% white, 1.5% black, 9.3% Latino, 3.0% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.3% other
VAP: 87.3% white, 1.4% black, 7.6% Latino, 2.9% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 0.7% other
2008 election: 48.6% Obama, 49.9% McCain, 1.4% other
2008 PVI: R+4
Incumbent: Peter Roskam (R–Wheaton), Randy Hultgren (R–Winfield)
Rating: Safe Republican
Our first safe GOP district picks up whatever is left in northern Illinois hese two Republicans didn't have primary challenges in the 2012 onslaught. Let's just say it was just delayed two years. By the way, do yard signs work here?
IL-15 (dark orange) – Southeastern Illinois: Charleston, Collinsville, Mt. Vernon, Marion
Deviation: +45
Population: 92.9% white, 3.2% black, 2.0% Latino, 0.5% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 1.1% other
VAP: 93.5% white, 3.3% black, 1.7% Latino, 0.5% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 0.7% other
2008 election: 43.3% Obama, 55.0% McCain, 1.8% other
2008 PVI: R+10
Incumbent: John Shimkus (R–Collinsville)
Rating: Safe Republican
Oh how far the Democrats have fallen. In 2000, much of this area was represented by Democrat David Phelps, a Blue Dog.
IL-16 (lime) – Central expanse: Yorkville, La Salle, Ottawa, Streator
Deviation: −31
Population: 85.0% white, 3.0% black, 7.7% Latino, 2.9% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 1.3% other
VAP: 87.5% white, 2.8% black, 6.2% Latino, 2.7% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 0.7% other
2008 election: 48.4% Obama, 50.1% McCain, 1.5% other
2008 PVI: R+4
Incumbent: Aaron Schock (R–Peoria)
Rating: Safe Republican
Adam Kinzinger, his district shredded again, might run here. If so, it would be an epic battle of two young conservatives.
IL-17 (dark slate blue) – Northwestern Illinois: Rockford, Quad Cities, Galesburg
Deviation: +86
Population: 79.7% white, 8.2% black, 8.8% Latino, 1.3% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 1.8% other
VAP: 83.4% white, 7.3% black, 6.8% Latino, 1.2% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 1.0% other
2008 election: 58.0% Obama, 40.5% McCain, 1.6% other
2008 PVI: D+5
Incumbent: Cheri Bustos (D–East Moline)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Knocking off Bobby Schilling was the hard part. With that out of the way, Bustos should be safe here.
IL-18 (yellow) – Central belt: Quincy, Taylorville, Danville
Deviation: −30
Population: 90.5% white, 4.0% black, 2.6% Latino, 1.4% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 1.3% other
VAP: 92.0% white, 3.7% black, 2.1% Latino, 1.3% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 0.7% other
2008 election: 42.7% Obama, 55.7% McCain, 1.6% other
2008 PVI: R+10
Incumbent: Rodney Davis (R–Taylorville)
Rating: Safe Republican
Davis's flukey win in 2012 leaves him with life tenure in Illinois's safest GOP seat.
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Breakdown:
10 safe Dem
4 likely Dem
4 safe GOP
Of course, this hinges on whether 58% Obama 2008 is sufficient to elect a Democratic representative. Thoughts, ideas, questions, and/or comments?