UPDATE 1 128PM CT:
Supercell moving towards the OKC Metro and it's rapidly intensifying. From NWS Norman's Facebook page:
Mesoanalysis shows the storms will be moving into increasingly favorable low level shear as they approach I-35. OKC metro should be VERY alert to tornado potential next hour or so!
UPDATE: Tornado watch for a good chunk of Oklahoma until 1000PM Central.
There are also several other tornado watches in effect from Wisconsin to Missouri.
INITIAL DIARY:
After noting that the severe weather season seemed non-existent for the first few months of the season, we flipped a u-ey last week and dove head-first into the peak of tornado season. Starting two weekends ago, we've had almost one severe weather outbreak a day straight through to today, as if nature were trying to make up for lost time.
Yet another springtime severe weather outbreak is likely today, with several violent, long-lived tornadoes possible in the Oklahoma City metro area. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe weather across central Oklahoma, indicating the risk for these significant tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds.
The SPC is putting a caveat on the tornado/hail risk in Oklahoma today -- only if discrete supercells (supercells that develop as an isolated entity; not connected to other storms in a line) are able to form will the tornado/hail threat play out. If they merge into squall lines like they did yesterday, the threat will transition over to wind damage. However, given the large amounts of shear and instability in the atmosphere, the tornado threat exists and should be taken seriously.
Here's the risk area as of early this afternoon. Red is moderate risk for severe weather. Yellow is slight risk. Green indicates general, non-severe thunderstorms.
Here's the tornado risk today, showing the possibility of violent, long-track tornadoes over parts of central and eastern Oklahoma. While it's likely we won't see another Moore-type tornado, any tornado in a heavily populated area is bad news.
Don't ignore the green (2%) and brown (5%) zones, as tornado watches are going up across the midwest. As of this writing, most of Wisconsin was under a tornado watch.
Here's the hail risk, the worst of which is expected to occur in the strongest supercell thunderstorms over Oklahoma.
The wind risk is on the low-end of the scale over Oklahoma, but the red area indicates an elevated risk of wind damage as the storms form into lines and move into the Mississippi River region later this evening.
As always, pay attention to your local National Weather Service office for the latest updates and warnings. I've been having endless internet issues over the last few days (thanks Time Warner!) so I might not be able to update as much as I'd like to.
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National Weather Service Main Page
National Weather Service -- Central Oklahoma
National Weather Service -- Tulsa OK
National Weather Service -- Springfield MO
National Weather Service -- St. Louis MO
National Weather Service -- Kansas City MO
National Weather Service -- Arkansas (whole state)
Storm Prediction Center Main Page
Storm Prediction Center -- Current Severe Weather Watches
Storm Prediction Center -- Convective (Severe Weather) Outlooks
Storm Prediction Center -- Mesoscale Discussions
Storm Prediction Center -- Storm Reports
Storm Prediction Center -- Mesoscale Analysis Pages
Wunderground's Detailed Radar (click the + nearest to you to see your local radar)
NOAA Weather Models
TwisterData.com's excellent GFS/NAM/RAP model website.
ChaserTV-- live streaming video from storm chasers.
News9 in Oklahoma City provides extremely thorough severe weather coverage. This is Gary England's station -- the pioneers of on-screen weather warnings and chasing tornadoes with helicopters. Their efforts, along with those of storm chasers, have saved thousands of lives.
I'll continuously post updates to my Facebook page on this and most other major severe weather outbreaks.