House Speaker John Boehner is not going to bring a comprehensive immigration-reform plan to the floor if a majority of Republicans don't support it, sources familiar with his plans said.The radicalized House GOP, bolstered by gerrymandered-induced safe districts, are hell-bent on killing Senate efforts to legalize millions of undocumented immigrants. On the other hand, the Republican establishment understands that their long-term prognosis is poor unless they can start eating away at Democratic base supporters in immigrant communities (Asian and Latino, mostly, but pretty much everything else as well).
"No way in hell," is how several described the chances of the speaker acting on such a proposal without a majority of his majority behind him.
Remember, of the 2.4 million new Americans in 2012, only seven percent were white, and all of those were immigrants.
It's widely assumed that immigration reform can pass the House with Democratic support and a few dozen Republican defectors, but only if Boehner ditches the Hastert Rule one more time. But after blowing off the Hastert Rule on a handful of legislative efforts, such as the fiscal cliff nonsense, his charges are restless. Few think Boehner could survive one more perceived betrayal.
So how firm is Boehner's insistance that he won't violate the Hastert Rule? We'll find out soon enough. It comes down to this formulation:
What's more important to John Boehner?
A) His speakership
B) The future of his party
If he opts for (A), he might keep control of the House for a while, but his role will be that of an endless obstructionist. And even the House won't be immune to the nation's demographic changes.
If he opts for (B), he gives his party a future fighting chance. As for him? K-Street will reward him richly. No one will weep for super-lobbyist Boehner.