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The gang here at Daily Kos Elections is at Netroots Nation in San Jose, California this week, and on Saturday at 3 PM PT, we're hosting what's become a regular tradition: the DKE horserace Q&A panel. No speeches, no presentations, no Powerpoints. We go straight to questions from the audience about your favorite races. You can watch a livestream of the event here or below (note that the stream will be playing something else if you activate it before or after our panel) the video recording of the panel below:

This year, we'll also try to take some questions via Twitter, so send a tweet to @DKElections during the panel and we'll do our best to get to it. And if you're in attendance, please stop by afterwards and let us know who you are!

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 04:00:15 PM PDT

  •  Thanks to everyone at the live digest today! (10+ / 0-)

    It was an incredible opportunity and I'm grateful David gave us all the chance to contribute and to Xenocrypt, Stephen Wolf, and James Allen.  And thanks to everyone who read and commented on the various stories and instances of terrible punditry we all found!  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 04:06:21 PM PDT

    •  You guys did great. NT (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff

      Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad - Absent for a few months. Got me a woman and a house now. New comments is [back]... Mark Sanford is what now ? sawolf is Stephen Wolf, & DKE have all the pres results... First!

      by CF of Aus on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 01:48:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus

        It was quite fun.  Paul LePage's... interesting political choices made it even more exciting!  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 01:57:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He is an odd one that is for sure. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Darth Jeff

          I hope we don't stuff up getting rid of him. Michaud hopefully has polling that gives him confidence he can stave off cutler in a three way race... If le page is the GOP candidate.

          Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad - Absent for a few months. Got me a woman and a house now. New comments is [back]... Mark Sanford is what now ? sawolf is Stephen Wolf, & DKE have all the pres results... First!

          by CF of Aus on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 02:47:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Only 50 miles north (5+ / 0-)

    But too poor to attend. Sigh.

    Is it possible to turn off the autoplay on the livestream?

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 04:20:30 PM PDT

    •  I've been tinkering around with your Illinois map (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, KingofSpades

      and so far, while keeping the lines roughly as clean/messy I've bumped up Obama's % in the 12th by 1, 13th by 2, and 17th by .5. Haven't gotten to the Chicagoland districts, but it seems very apparent that they could have done a much better job gerrymandering the downstate districts. It's quite easy to make the 13th strong for even a liberal like Gill without much trouble.

      Also for the autoplay there's some plug in app that blocks flash video from playing without your consent, can't remember the name of it but David has definitely referenced it a couple of times.

    •  And here we go (6+ / 0-)
       photo ILDem14-4overview_zps8cc2722d.png
       photo ILDem14-4Chicago_zps837f30e3.png
       photo ILDem14-4data_zpsae8025f4.png

      Compared to your map, which was quite excellent and was entirely what enabled mine, this map improved all of the swing districts while both packing the GOP vote sinks more and preserving districts 1, 2, and 10 with minor precinct swaps with 4 and 7 to make them very slightly more Hispanic and black respectively.

      The major changes from yours is that the 6th is a crucial 2% more Obama in case Roskam ran there, the 8th 1%, the 12th 1%, the 13th 2% and the 17th .5%. I don't think even Peter Roskam could have won the 6th had he run there in 2012 given how little of it he previously represented and how it likely went for Obama with over 58% or at worst 57% in 2012.

      Especially downstate and with the 13th district it seems there was no compelling reason for Madigan and co. not to have done this as compared to the real map:
      the 8th is 2% worse: no big deal Duckworth won by 8.5%
      the 10th is .5% better
      the 11th is roughly the same
      the 12th is 2.5% better: significant for voting record
      the 13th is over 5% better: massively important - safe for Gill
      the 17th is just 1.5% worse: negligible as Bustos won by 6.6%
      All the while the 6th goes from a huge Romney win vote sink to a massive Obama win with little Roskam incumbency and the map as a whole looks no more gerrymandered. All around I think this a wholly better map than what Madigan and co. passed and reminds me a lot of the Maryland map. It seems that parochialism trumped partisanship. Something that thwarted only a few GOP gains such as in Tennessee.

      •  Bellisimo! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, CF of Aus

        Maybe diary-worthy?

        And as for parochialism, don't forget UT.  It was leaked that Rob Bishop and Chaffetz pressed the state leg to make their districts ultra red instead of very red, leaving a district for Matheson.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 07:25:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Super effective map (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus

        27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 09:41:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Really great map! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus

        I've been trying to make the AA districts less vote sinkish. I've drawn two going south and the third going down and west towards Ottawa. They soak up as much Republican territory as possible. Not sure how that helps other Democrats yet. That's as far as I've gotten.

      •  The photos arnt showing up for me for some (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ProudNewEnglander

        Reason... Anyone else have this problem or just me.

        Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad - Absent for a few months. Got me a woman and a house now. New comments is [back]... Mark Sanford is what now ? sawolf is Stephen Wolf, & DKE have all the pres results... First!

        by CF of Aus on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 02:48:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  You have more county splits than I do (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus

        Which was what I was trying to avoid, but the better Dem performances on your map are worth it.

        23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

        by kurykh on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 04:52:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah I figured at that point (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, CF of Aus, HoosierD42

          and with what the IL Dems seemed to tolerate, why bother? So I just turned the county lines off doing this map. Your drf came to me with counties off and my reaction was "oh, I never turn those off!? Muwahahaha" The lines overall look decent though and I think that's what a good gerrymander should do.

          Anyway I really dislike that counties are supposed to be the basis of maps. Case in point are the Pennsylvania and New Jersey 'Fair maps" where it's quite easy to draw Bucks or Passaic Counties as one district, but it makes little sense to do so from a socioeconomic standpoint. Counties to me are just a relic of a bygone age and if drawing a non-partisan map or a gerrymander I'd rather ignore them completely and just look at municipalities.

  •  Eh (0+ / 0-)

    I was there yesterday and today helping Mike Honda with stuff but can't come tomorrow :/

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 04:36:09 PM PDT

  •  Anyone there need any San Jose recomendations? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, Audrid, ehstronghold, gabjoh

    I used to be in Downtown San Jose all the time so I know it really well if you're looking for good places to eat/ things to do and such.  

    If you have a car I'd absolutely recommend checking out the Winchester Mystery House.  (It's also reachable by bus from the Convention Center but it takes a while).   It was one of my family's go-to places when we had visitors.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 04:47:32 PM PDT

    •  Thanks again for helping yesterday! (5+ / 0-)

      Would greatly welcome recommendations for a quick place to grab lunch and some place for dinner (perhaps Mexican).

      The final party tonight is, strangely enough, at the San Jose Giants stadium, so if you have any dinner recommendations in that area as well, that would be great.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 10:52:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Of places in downtown... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        I can't think of many Mexican places I know well off the top of my head.  There's a cheap quick place near SJ State University, Iguanas.  Nothing fancy at all (pretty geared towards a student budget) but I liked them.  I'll see if any of my family members have tried a Mexican place I haven't (since I haven't been back in a few months the odds are good).  

        If you like Thai, House of Siam is one of my go to places Downtown.   We also have a Gordon Biersch there which I like, though it's far from unique to San Jose.  We also have Japan Town pretty close to downtown; if you have a car handy and a little time I'd recommend checking it out if you like Japanese food.

        I haven't been to SJ Giants' Stadium in forever so I don't really remember what's around.  I believe New Indian Cuisine is close by car and I think I've been there and liked them; they at least get good ratings on Yelp.  I'll check with family on this one too.  

        If you make it out to Los Gatos or Campbell I can recommend a number of places in my next of the woods.  Same thing with Mountain View at the other side of the county; when I interned in Assemblymember Fong's office I got to explore a lot of restaurants!  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 11:15:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  you did a really good job. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 10:55:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  From Comment on Kentucky this weekend (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, CF of Aus

    Issue 1- Special Session on Redistricting on August 19- So far only the legislative and judicial districts are on the call, but there could be more added. The bone of contention on redistricting thus far had been the counting of about 8,000 federal prisoners. They were counted in the congressional plan. Gov. Beshear wants them to be consistent. The House will need to tweak its map passed earlier this year to add federal prisoners. Ronnie Ellis of CNHI newspapers suggests that a commission by used for future maps, but does not expect it to go into effect because of legislative opposition. Ellis also notes that Democrats fighting over territory, possibly leading Rep. Mike Denham (D-Maysville) and Kevin Sinette (D-Ashland) may retire because of unhappiness with their proposed districts. Sinette's seat would pick up Democratic Lawrence County, but Denham's seat would gain heavily Republican Lewis County.
    Please note that the House and Senate will draw their own maps, and each body will pass a bill containing both maps.

    Coal Severance Tax Money- Eastern Kentucky lawmakers are very upset over some of this money ($2.5 million) going to renovate Rupp Arena in Lexington. The money has been drying up, causing major budget cuts in Eastern Kentucky, where the amount of coal being mined is on the slide.

    Farm Bill- The House voted the bill down. The Senate version did not have any pro-hemp language, but the House bill did. Farmers in parts of Kentucky (especially Western KY) are worried because of the very wet spring which has delayed planting of corn, soybeans and tobacco.

    What has happened to Eastern KY in the last 50 years? The Herald-Leader looked at Knott County, which has relied more on coal jobs as a percentage than any other county in Kentucky. John Cheves says the county is in very bad shape given the closer of many mines. Coal and railroads came much later than other counties- after WWII. It almost exclusively relied on strip mining. Many farms were destroyed by the "Broad Form Deed", which allowed the destruction of the land above if you owned the mineral rights below. It did not end until 1988. This led to bombings and gunfights over this. Cheves does not see Knott County recovering very much given how rugged it is. The easiest to reach seems of coal are largely gone, as they have been mined out. Coal employment has been down recently in Knott County 63%. Many people have largely left the county, but some think mining will make a comeback and a lot of people have such an attachment that they will not leave.

    Leftovers- The state is getting more than $6 million from a lawsuit filed over online gaming. Keno is coming to the KY Lottery in October. There was only a passing mention of the HD-56 special election Tuesday, but Ferrell Wellman noted that about half a million dollars will be spent here.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 05:35:02 PM PDT

    •  Never understood the appeal of Keno. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 07:23:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Working on a diary on the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, KingofSpades

      special election Tuesday. Hoping to post Saturday. Trying to work it in around working at church festival this weekend. It is always fun to prepare enough food to feed over 3,000 people.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 07:48:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  news here on automatic voter reg, equality (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, CF of Aus, supercereal
    Amends Constitution: Recognizes marriage between couples of same gender; protects clergy/religious institutions' refusal to perform marriages
    That should now be the ballot title for the measure to amend the constitution to make marriage equality legal in Oregon. Opponents challenged it but failed to appeal in a timely manner.

    Senator Betsy Johnson, despite her opposition to automatic voter registration, allowed it to pass through committee without voting on it.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 05:51:46 PM PDT

    •  Would any Republican in the st.-senate support it? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus

      The automatic voter registration bill. It looks like there's one so far in the state house: Bob Jenson from HD-58: http://www.registerguard.com/...

      Because support for the bill comes overwhelmingly from Democrats — only one House Republican has publicly backed it so far — Johnson’s opposition in the Senate spells trouble for the measure. Democrats hold only a 16-14 edge in the chamber.
      Jenson voted it out of committee back in May: https://olis.leg.state.or.us/...
      Action: Do pass as amended, be printed engrossed, and bill be referred to Ways and Means.

      Committee Vote (Aye, Nay, Excused, Absent): 6-3-0-0

      Member Vote    
      Barnhart - Aye
      Berger - Nay
      Dembrow - Aye
      Garrett - Aye
      Hicks - Nay
      Holvey - Aye
      Hoyle - Aye
      Jenson - Aye
      Kennemer - Nay

      •  I doubt it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        supercereal

        but they want to try for it. If it doesn't pass this session they will try again next session when we're likely to have more senators.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 08:08:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  both Bruce Starr and Betsy Close's districts (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        supercereal

        are more urban and Democratic than Johnson's, when we pick them up they will probably give us more reliable votes.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 08:09:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  On what grounds were equality opponents (0+ / 0-)

      going to appeal?

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 07:46:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  really ridiculous arguments (0+ / 0-)

        that nobody but they took seriously. I think at BlueOregon they were saying it was just a stalling tactic to try to delay signature gathering.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 07:57:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  In a fit of pique (7+ / 0-)

    I did a major update on the wiki page for the 2012 elections in New York, adding the general election results for every district, and separating out the ballot lines that each candidate enjoyed (little weird that neither the Working Family or Conservative Parties got involved in Meeks' district).

    Anyway, enjoy.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 07:15:37 PM PDT

  •  Wow, didn't realize it was NN already! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 07:23:23 PM PDT

  •  CO-Treasurer: Ex-Rep. Betsy Markey to run (17+ / 0-)

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 07:42:25 PM PDT

    •  Glad to see she's still around. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, betelgeux

      Stapleton is running for re-election, right?

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 09:13:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think so (0+ / 0-)

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 09:34:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Awesome (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus, askew

      we are fielding a very strong slate next year in Colorado.  We could conceivably sweep every statewide office.

    •  It would be great to not just have the trifecta (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin

      But all the statewides offices as well... To really make Colorado a blue state.

      Good luck to her, although Gessler seems worse than Stapylton, so he is the GOP incumbent that I want to lose the most.

      Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad - Absent for a few months. Got me a woman and a house now. New comments is [back]... Mark Sanford is what now ? sawolf is Stephen Wolf, & DKE have all the pres results... First!

      by CF of Aus on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 03:40:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  According to commenters (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus

        Stapleton is much more on the down-low than Gessler.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 04:34:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yeah I guess Gessler (and Coffman once upon a (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          time) seemed as per usual to have really been bad for voting rights... But the legislature seems to have done pretty well on this issue so maybe he would drop to being a nuisance even if he remained.

          Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad - Absent for a few months. Got me a woman and a house now. New comments is [back]... Mark Sanford is what now ? sawolf is Stephen Wolf, & DKE have all the pres results... First!

          by CF of Aus on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 06:12:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Wow (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aamail6

      That seems to me like a downgrade from her last job. But sometimes that is necessary. Strong recruit for sure.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 07:45:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Where would I find cross-election info? (0+ / 0-)

    As in, finding out who voted for Democrats in certain Utah state legislature districts while also voting for certain Congressional candidates? Someone asked me in the 6/20 DKE diary if I had the figures for who voted for the Dem candidate in Utah state house district 33, while also finding out who voted for Romney, and I'm new to this, so I don't quite know how to find it and/or calculate it. I'd also like to make a Stephen Wolf-style state legislature map to see which districts in Utah had surprising numbers, so I'd like advice on how to do it.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 09:50:18 PM PDT

    •  Who voted for who??? (0+ / 0-)

      You won't find that info because it isn't publicly available because it would undermine the secret ballot principles of democracy.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 10:09:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, sorry, I meant (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv

        which populations voted for whom. As in, in a theoretical state house district 123, what were the numbers for the candidate/their challenger, then what were the numbers for the Congressperson/their challenger, then what were the numbers for the President/their challenger. That kind of thing.

        I didn't mean individual people, sorry. I just meant voting maps like Stephen Wolf does.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 10:32:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You may want to try precinct results (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian

          Utah doesn't seem to have them all on one site, but county board of elections often do.  Here's Utah county's.

          What you may want to do is find the counties in state district 123 (or whatever) and look at the precincts of that district and compare them to the other elections you're interested in.  You can at least find a bunch of the Presidential results by precinct here.

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

          by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 11:07:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks! A few more questions (0+ / 0-)

            (EDIT: Dangit, my computer ate my comment after Firefox crashed. Oh well, I'll reconstruct this comment from memory as best I can).

            1) How can I tell if a precinct is in a district? I know the cities that state rep/senators claim are in their districts, but not much more than that.

            2) Is there any way I can tell where the precinct is in a district even more specifically than the city level?

            3) I don't mean to sound ignorant, but that Utah County board of elections document is hard to read; I can't make heads or tails of it due to the format. How exactly do I figure out those numbers and the abbreviated precinct names?

            4) Will a legislator's office ever have the precinct numbers on hand? I plan on talking to a legislator soon, so if I can get those numbers, that might help with this project.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 12:12:51 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  counties usually do 1 of 2 things (0+ / 0-)

              in my experience: either they'll have all of the results for each race separate, and each precinct's results listed under that, so you could find out which precincts are in which district just by looking at the list, or they might have each precinct individually with each race it voted in below it, and the results for each. The latter is much more time consuming.

              The legislators should have precinct maps of their districts, or at worst lists.

              If you want to give me a link I can try to help you figure it out.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 12:33:18 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Okay, here's what I have. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                (Firefox keeps eating my posts what's up with that)

                The only page that actually has precinct results (that I could find) is Utah County results (warning, it's huge and keeps crashing my Firefox). Salt Lake County only has a district/precinct map page, and a more generic county-level results page.

                Weber County (the other major county in the heavily-populated Wasatch Front), has a page similar to Salt Lake County. Wait, actually, it also has a Utah County-style precinct results page.

                That's the best I could find, and most of the other counties are either unimportant (Weber, Salt Lake, and Utah counties hold most of Utah's population) or their results are harder to find.

                Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                by Gygaxian on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 10:27:36 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  wow, that's kind of confusing at first glance (0+ / 0-)

                  (Weber County) the way they list a bunch of precincts in races where there aren't any votes tallied (I'm guessing they aren't in the district) is crazy. It's awesome that they report early votes separately and combined.

                  Basically there are two ways to figure out which precincts are in which districts. The first is to look at precinct maps, where available, and compare them to district maps, but while this is easier its less effective because you can miss ones you don't see. The second is to put together your own spreadsheet combining data from several levels (so I think you want congress and legislative?). I usually have races along the top and precincts running down the side. Every precinct will have votes for some legislative candidates and some congressional candidates as long as there were votes cast, you'll just have to sort out which ones belong together. Once you have it all down, its not difficult.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 10:54:18 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  If you're interested in doing this on a big scale (0+ / 0-)

                    like if you wanted to calculate the presidential results of each leg district in a county or even the entire state, I'd recommend breaking it down county-by-county like JeffMD does for Congressional races.  I'm helping calculate the Presidential results different states by legislative district: if you're interested in doing something like that for Utah or want more detailed information on how I've done some calculations in other states please message me and I'll go into more detail.  

                    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

                    by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 11:22:08 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  he's already getting the results by county so I (0+ / 0-)

                      figured he would, but that's a good point.

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 11:23:48 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Unfortunately most of the districts I'm looking at (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        James Allen

                        In Salt Lake County and Weber County (with a few in Utah County) are single-county districts. I have a few multi-county districts I want to look at, but most are basically impossible for us to win even with dead boy/live girl-esque stuff, so I don't want to bother with most districts outside of those main three counties (since they hold the largest and most varied populations).

                        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                        by Gygaxian on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 12:27:58 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  that's actually good, it makes it easier (0+ / 0-)

                          I can't tell you how frustrating it is to be working on something for districts (like state house candidate performance compared to Obama) and then realize I have the data for every county in a district but one, because that county makes you pay for precinct data which I haven't done yet, or didn't even get back to me when I inquired.

                          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                          by James Allen on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 12:31:22 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Ah, I see. (0+ / 0-)

                            Then I only have the problem of looking at district votes as compared to Presidential and Congressional, right? Example, in my own West Jordan House District 47, I need to know who voted for GOP candidate Ken Ivory or his opponent, who voted for Jim Matheson or Mia Love (and the other Congressional districts, if they're within the HD), and who (what populations, I mean, for those concerned about secret ballots) voted for Obama or Romney in the district. Is that what I need to do? How would I go about doing that? Is there any way I can see where in the district candidates had the most support?

                            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                            by Gygaxian on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 12:36:57 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  my advice (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Darth Jeff, Gygaxian

                            make a list if you haven't already of all of the districts you are interested in. Set up a spreadsheet and make a page for every district you want. Then go through the precinct results and one by one take down the precinct number and its results for those districts in the state legislative races (save the congressional and other results for later). You now have lists of which precincts are in which legislative districts. Make sure to check the total county results to make sure your overall numbers match and you aren't missing precincts.

                            Then choose which elections you want to do next (congressional, presidential) and only look up the precincts from the districts you are interested. Add them next to the legislative results in each district so you can compare. Now you'll be able to compare in which precincts each candidate did better or worse relative to each other. However, you'll only know where the precincts are if you have access to a precinct map.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 12:57:17 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

  •  ME-02: LePage story gets weirder (8+ / 0-)

    In the last two days, Paul LePage both openly contemplated running in ME-02 and had some pretty awful comments for Democratic state Senator Troy Jackson, saying Jackson “claims to be for the people but he's the first one to give it to the people without providing Vaseline," and "People like Troy Jackson, they ought to go back in the woods and cut trees and let someone with a brain come down here and do some work."  It turns out more of these nasty comments may be coming: Jackson is also thinking about running in ME-02.  

    In the (albeit unlikely) event of a LePage-Jackson matchup, I think we may have a serious contender for nastiest race of 2014.  Then again, I think any race LePage is involved in will be ugly.  

    In case anyone thought LePage may finally apologize for something, nope.  Despite what the Huffington Post's headline says, LePage is instead offering one of those "I'm sorry if you're so easily offended" apologies.  In fact, he's not even pretending to apologize to Jackson: instead, he stated, “It was never my intent to ever, ever suggest that the loggers of the state of Maine are in the same league as Troy Jackson.  I owe that apology. … it wasn’t meant to offend anybody."  If this man somehow gets to Congress, he may replace Louie Gohmert as head of the Congressional Asshole Caucus.        

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 21, 2013 at 11:02:14 PM PDT

  •  MI: Michigan Republicans rebuff Snyder's agenda (8+ / 0-)

    They've never liked each other, and the relationship has always been contentious, but Snyder and the legislature are now having it all out in the public.  From the Detroit News:

    Lansing — Gov. Rick Snyder started the year with an ambitious agenda to expand access to Medicaid health insurance for the working poor and raise $1.2 billion in new taxes for road repairs — and is now in danger of getting neither.

    Since February, Snyder has been trying to convince reluctant fellow Republicans to accept nearly $2 billion in federal funds to add more than 400,000 to the Medicaid rolls, while pushing the Legislature to raise drivers license fees and gas taxes to fix the state’s potholed highways and deteriorating bridges.

    ...

     After Snyder flew halfway around the world Wednesday night from a trade mission in Israel, the GOP-controlled Michigan Senate balked Thursday at his call for an up-or-down vote on expanding Medicaid before adjourning for a two-month summer break.

    Snyder accused the senators of not doing their jobs and going on vacation, making it the first major public clash between the businessman-turned-politician and Republican lawmakers after two-and-half-years of legislative accomplishments.

    ...

    And, better yet:
    Snyder has called on voters to “bug the living daylights out of their senator until they come and vote on something.” The Senate has four work days scheduled during the next nine weeks, but doesn’t plan to meet again until Aug. 27.

    Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville, R-Monroe, refused to bring the Medicaid bill up for a vote this week after failing to get half of his 26-member caucus to support the legislation. But Richardville acknowledged there was likely a 20-member majority — 12 Democrats and eight Republicans — to pass the bill.

    ...

    If you've ever seen this guy at work, you'd know he is the John Boehner of Michigan, and this just proves it.
  •  MA Sen Emerson College: Markey 51-41 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, askew, itskevin, abgin

    http://www.buonoforgovernor.com/

    by Paleo on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 05:10:00 AM PDT

  •  Won't be home to watch the panel, unfortunately (0+ / 0-)

    Over here, it's starting at midnight. Have fun. I hope to be able to watch it later.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 07:44:55 AM PDT

  •  A fascinating Cracked article on elections (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff

    that were helped by some unorthodox tactics:
    http://www.cracked.com/...

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 08:59:43 AM PDT

    •  Pretty sure that Niggas in Paris (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      video, while AMAZING (what got me into the song after hating it due to a roommate that played his radio way too much), was unofficial.

      Keep cool; never freeze. | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05/NY-?? - Oh, how I missed you, pizza | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 09:26:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm mildly irate about the theft of Carter's notes (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, Darth Jeff, LordMike

      I wonder if that would have helped him win by a hair.  Anyone remember his debate with Reagan?  Was it as bad for Carter as the article implies?

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 11:28:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It was pretty bad for Dems (5+ / 0-)

        I don't think it was that Carter was so bad as Reagan was good.  

        The debate doubtless did us damage and often is cited as the reason Carter lost.  The conventional narrative is Carter and Reagan were neck and neck until the debate (the only Carter-Reagan face off) blew the GOP's lead wide open.  I've heard and agree with the interpretation that while the debate did help Reagan he would have won without it.  Given the bad economy and the hostage crisis I don't know how Carter was supposed to beat any reasonably competent Republican.  

        Of course I wasn't alive then so that's just my best reading based on what I know.  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 11:55:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, Darth Jeff, LordMike

          I wasnt alive then either, but I dont tink Reagan needed the debate win to win the election.

          But the big debate win + inflation +the energy crisis + the Iran hostage crisis was what gave him a bigger margin of victory.

          •  Also, I notice in the article (4+ / 0-)

            they mention that the CW at the time was that Reagan was just a B-list movie actor.

            Even at the time, that seems like a foolish criticism. First,  he was two term governor of CA, and secondly, in the TV era, any successful candidate needs to be able to perform well in front a camera to win votes, and certainly Reagan's acting experience probably helped even if he wasnt Humphrey Bogart.

        •  it didn't help that wasn't the only way Reagan (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, Darth Jeff, LordMike

          cheated.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 12:25:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I remember it well & debate is badly overstated... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, LordMike

          ...as a factor.

          Part of the problem was that in real time, a lot of people did think that it was close and Carter might win.

          But that was illusion.  There wasn't a lot of polling back then, campaigns then as now were circumspect, and probably the campaigns' own polling might not have been as good as campaign polling is today.  The notion that Carter could still win was based entirely in the thought that Reagan might be viewed as too extreme ideologically, and while the debate helped erase that, it had dissipated as a factor earlier.  It still was a "problem" for his popular vote share as proven by John Anderson and others combining for 9%, and he wouldn't be elected with today's demographics.  But Carter's job approval was in the 20s and 30s, not even the low 40s, and at 41% he actually outperformed his approvals as it was.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 06:43:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I've watched it... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, BenjaminDisraeli

        Carter was pretty awful in that debate.  His body language and demeanor made him seem like an asshole.  Reagan's win and Brown's win in MA make it clear to any struggling incumbent--do not have a debate with potentially strong challenger a week before election day (especially without early voting).

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 12:42:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Lexington Herald-Leader endorses Hack for HD-56 (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.kentucky.com/...

    A surprise to me since the Herald-Leader leans to the left, but they endorsed independent John-Mark Hack for HD-56. I think it probably helps Democrats since he is strongly anti-gambling and most voters that have that position would have likely voted GOP. But this does make the race more interesting.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 11:12:30 AM PDT

  •  GA GOP won't switch to conventions from primaries (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.ajc.com/...

    The Republican Party's state committee resoundingly voted on Saturday against studying a move away from summer primary votes and toward letting a convention of party devotees tap the party’s candidates.

    The resolution was a scaled-down version of Brant Frost V’s original plan, which he brought because he said the grass-roots base that powered the GOP for generations has been “discriminated against” during the party’s resurgence. Primaries put too much emphasis on “the power of Big Media and Big Money,” his resolution said.

    Sigh...  I guess we'll always have Virginia to deliver the E.W. Jackson's of the world.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 01:34:35 PM PDT

  •  You (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, KingofSpades

    know I should of gotten tickets to Netroots Nation this year especially since I'm just a train ride away from San Jose. But I didn't for some reason. Boohoo.

    But anyway I hope you guys at Netroots Nation are having fun. Especially if this is the first time you guys have ever been to the Bay Area, I hope you enjoy it especially since the weather has been so great here these past couple of days.

    I know this piece of advice is late, but if you haven't ventured out of San Jose yet and still have some time to kill, I'd recommend you guys head over to San Francisco especially if you haven't been there before. (Especially since you can catch Caltrain straight into the city. Granted it takes an hour and a half on weekends to get between SF and SJ one way.)

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 02:16:18 PM PDT

  •  NY State Senate: IDC Leader fundraises for Repub. (7+ / 0-)

    Buffalo State Senator Mark Grisanti was a Democrat who ran three times against the former incumbent state Senator Antoine Thompson.  The first time in 2008 he crushed Grisanti in the Democratic Primary.  The second time in 2010 he beat Grisanti by a narrower margin again in the Democratic primary.  But Grisanti after losing was offered a spot on the Republican ballot line.  Given how Democratic and heavily minority the district was he was seen as a very long shot.  But just before the election the Aquaduct scandal emerged and Antoine Thompson lost in what was a fluke election.

    This cost the Democrats the majority in the State Senate.  And helped begin the saga of the IDC, four brave Democratic state Senators who refused to lose all perks they enjoyed as members of the majority and brokered their own side deal with the Republicans.

    Mark Grisanti's old seat was indefensible but he was given a whiter even if heavily Democratic seat.  A top Democratic target in 2012 but enjoying the tacit support of Andrew Cuomo he won comfortably though was still held to just 50% of the vote and is expected to be given a strong challenge again.

    And here is where the IDC comes back to the story.  IDC Chair Jeffrey Klein will be co-hosting a fundraiser with Senate Republican Party Leader Dean Skelos to help them beat back the hated Democrats.

    http://blogs.buffalonews.com/...

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 03:27:34 PM PDT

    •  When (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, lordpet8, Taget, gabjoh

      the IDC first formed back in 2011 I seriously thought the people in it were just Democrats revolted by the shenanigans of their fellow caucus mates and the leadership in the Democratic caucus.

      Now I've realized they're just Democrats out for themselves which wouldn't be so out of line of how Democrats in the NY State Senate typically act.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 06:03:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You and me both. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold, Taget, James Allen, lordpet8

        I thought they were going to be Dems who were merely going to work alongside regular Dems, but with other leadership.  turns out they're the biggest fools ever

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 06:48:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think that was what they originally planned (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, jncca, R30A, Taget

          but when they say the chance to play kingmaker they took it!

          “Herbert Hoover once ran on the slogan, “Two cars in every garage”. Apparently, the Republican candidate this year is running on the slogan, “Two families in every garage”.” ~Harry Truman 1948

          by lordpet8 on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 02:07:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And they can't do it right. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            R30A

            For instance, they should make it clear they'll break to the Dems if Repubs don't allow a vote on certain key things.  Stuff like the women protections bill that Republicans gutted (and Cuomo is annoyed the IDC is playing along with it).

            "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 02:13:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Court nominations this week. (6+ / 0-)

    Obama nominated two judges to the Northern District of California, and one to the Eastern District of North Carolina. That North Carolina seat is currently the longest-vacant district court seat in the nation, coming up on 8 years now.

    the N.D.Cal. is one of the most Democratic district courts in the nation by active judges, 11-1 D, and if these two nominees are approved, Obama will have appointed an absolute majority of active judges.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...
    http://en.wikipedia.org/...
    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 03:39:34 PM PDT

  •  DKE panel is up right now. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV, abgin, Gygaxian

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 03:48:16 PM PDT

  •  Anyone else watching the segment today? (5+ / 0-)

    for those of you who skipped the diary intro and have been annoyed by the autoplay (policy oh no! :P), we're currently watching the livestream of David, Jeff, David Jarman, Kaili, and Steve Singiser do the panel on elections.

  •  I'm enjoying seeing the faces associated.... (3+ / 0-)

    ...with the usernames here (in the embedded video at 7pm EDT).

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 04:01:13 PM PDT

  •  Good to see you all (0+ / 0-)

    Sorry I couldn't make it to CA this year.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 04:07:19 PM PDT

  •  Pretty good discussion. (0+ / 0-)

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 04:20:39 PM PDT

  •  CO-Sen: St. Rep Amy Stephens being recruited (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jj32, lordpet8

    http://thehill.com/...

    Colorado Republicans are said to be trying to get her to face Udall in a race where they have no viable candidates yet.  Stephens was the Majority Leader when the GOP ran the state House.  She's very socially conservative, once working for Focus on the Family and playing a key role in defeating civil unions on 2012.  Her economic conservative credentials are more questionable: she's worked to create a state health exchange at times.  She did survive a primary with another GOP state Rep. who challenged her on the health exchange though.  

    I guess since she'll be termed-out soon (Colorado has an eight-year term limit for House members and she was elected 2006) she has nothing to lose.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 04:36:26 PM PDT

  •  My diary on Kentucky HD-56 Special Election (5+ / 0-)

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 04:53:17 PM PDT

  •  It (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BenjaminDisraeli

    sounds like Ed Miliband is going all New Labour when it comes to spending on the safety net.

    I can understand where he's coming from though especially David Cameron and George Osborne have managed to do as much damage to the UK's economy as the recession did, but for a man who said New Labour was dead he sure is sounding like it isn't.

    Ed Miliband will tell the Labour Party today that it would not be able to reverse the £11.5bn of spending cuts to be unveiled by George Osborne next week if it forms the next government.

    In a speech to his party’s national policy forum about the “hard reality” a Labour government would face, Mr Miliband will say: “We won’t be able to promise now to reverse them because we can only do so when we can be absolutely crystal clear about where the money is coming from.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 06:28:33 PM PDT

  •  MN-Gov (5+ / 0-)

    The GOP field for Governor is growing. State Senator Dave Thompson will file legal papers Monday for 2014 MN Governor campaign. Also  former House Speaker Kurt Zellers will announce his political plans at press conference Sunday (it is expected he will run for Gov or Senate). Both are solid tier 2 candidates  IMO and either could well end up being the nominee.

    https://twitter.com/...

    A SSP guy in a DKE world.

    by Minnesota Mike on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 07:08:44 PM PDT

  •  Right wing takes aim yet again at Sen. Menendez (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Darth Jeff, askew

    Drudge is now teasing a New York Post story said to disclose a "new scandal surrounding New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez". I won't bother linking to his website.

    •  Let me guess... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      ...did he criticize the Bush administration for Katrina in a public 2007 speech or something horrific like that?  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 08:01:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Where did that idea come from? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        Was another politician "busted" for criticizing the FEMA response?

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 08:38:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Australia Federal elections (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus

    With the 14th of September coming up, there has been renewed speculation that Kevin Rudd (PM from 2007-10) will try to challenge Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party. Do you think it is likely and will Rudd lead Labor to a victory?

    •  there is no way he would lead us to (3+ / 0-)

      Victory... But some backbenchers believe he would save some seats. No polling has been done to convince me that this would be the case of course... But there is a lot of higher level polling that shows him as personally being more popular...

      He is a strange one of course... Many ministers wouldn't serve under him again so would rebel if he toppled Gillard.

      One thing they hope he could do is avoid a catestrophic wipeout in the Senate so that Abott is not all powerful.

      Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad - Absent for a few months. Got me a woman and a house now. New comments is [back]... Mark Sanford is what now ? sawolf is Stephen Wolf, & DKE have all the pres results... First!

      by CF of Aus on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 07:43:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  some Labor MPs (0+ / 0-)

        think that a hung parliament is possible under Rudd, reversing a 8 point two party deficit.

      •  Is Rudd (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus

        at least personally popular in Queensland? Or will that not matter because all the marginal seats in NSW fall anyway?

        •  Very popular in Qld and could maybe help (0+ / 0-)

          One or two of the others survive but it is looking like 4 out of 8 are gone no matter what... 3 others could survive maybe with his help.

          But yes it is all about  NSW this election as that is where a lot of Labour MPs hung on last time.

          Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad - Absent for a few months. Got me a woman and a house now. New comments is [back]... Mark Sanford is what now ? sawolf is Stephen Wolf, & DKE have all the pres results... First!

          by CF of Aus on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 09:53:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Labor (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          willisorgeln, Alizarin Indigo

          will be wiped out in NSW come September 14th. Not only is Federal Labor's polling in the dumps in the state, but the ghost of NSW Labor's last four years in power which was a freak show is continuing to hurt the Labor brand in the state.

          Plus the state Liberals' time in power has been relatively controversy free. Barry O'Farrell hasn't ruffled the electorate's feathers as much as Campbell Newman and Ted Baillieu did when they came to power.

          Another problem facing Federal Labor in NSW is that ever since the 2011 state election Labor has lost a lot of ground to the Liberals on the local level. For instance Liverpool of all places has a Liberal mayor for the first time ever.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 11:29:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Labor's problem in NSW (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Alizarin Indigo

            is partly due to their failure to appeal to the ethnic vote. Despite historically being a diverse party, multicultural Sydney has deserted Labor on an unprecedented scale. The new Liberal mayor of Liverpool (a place that should be the safest of safe Labor areas) himself is a Muslim Arab who left the Labor Party in disgust.
            Almost all Labor MPs in Western Sydney are White Male Social Conservatives who no longer have any appeal to the changing demographics of the region.

            •  so (0+ / 0-)

              that is similar to the problem that faces the GOP today, but applied to a center left party.

            •  the mining tax (0+ / 0-)

              is so politically stupid because it hits the pocketbooks of Labor's constituency directly.

              I get the carbon tax, as Labor has been discussing it for a long time.

              •  I'm not sure (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                CF of Aus

                that taxing big businesses that make exceptionally large profits (and only those whose profits are exceptionally large) and redistributing the money raised to the needy was so exceptionally outside of Labor's wheelhouse policywise. The complete failure to sell it to the electorate was certainly an epic failure (although it polls quite well now).
                Whilst a carbon tax is really more of a free-markets Liberal party solution to the carbon emissions problem in the first place. The Liberal party's current preference for directly paying polluters to pollute less is a bit ideologically eccentric.

                •  but the mining tax (0+ / 0-)

                  didn't raise ant revenue, right?

                  •  Correct (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Alizarin Indigo

                    the compromise on the mining tax Gillard hashed out with the mining companies was so mindbogglingly stupid because it allowed the mining companies to write off what they had to pay when it came to state based mining royalties.

                    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

                    by ehstronghold on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 04:27:22 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Sure but (0+ / 0-)

                    That just means it was a badly managed policy. There is no reason it couldn't have been a success in theory.

                    A poll out today (Essential) has the mining tax at 49-27 approval (in yet another terrible poll for Labor) so it was more the dismal management of the mining tax rather than the general idea of a mining tax that is to blame for their woes.

  •  MassLive: Markey up 49-41 (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.masslive.com/...

    To paraphrase the West Wing, with The Herald showing Markey up 20 and this showing him up 8, I guess at least one of these pollsters will look pretty stupid come Wednesday.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 08:32:13 PM PDT

  •  Utah Dems keep convention (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Gygaxian

    Stephen Wolf wrote in Friday's Daily Digest that Utah Democrats were considering scrapping their convention system in favor of just doing a primary.  Like Georgia Republicans, they decided on Saturday to keep things as is: candidates will be nominated at the state convention, with a primary between the top-two candisates if no one secures 60% of the delegate vote.  (The Utah GOP does the same thing).

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 10:43:33 PM PDT

    •  I was actually going to post that (6+ / 0-)

      But that's alright too. The Utah Dems seem more likely to reform the system so the negatives of the convention system are downplayed. Who knows what will happen though, with the Count My Vote group looming in the background with a ballot initiative in the wings.

      My opinion on Utah's convention system is that I think the Utah Democrats should keep it (as they have done). Normally, in any other state, I would oppose the convention system, but here in Utah, I think it's vital for Dems. First, in many races we don't even have one candidate, let alone two, so a primary is pointless. Second, a primary is expensive compared to a convention, and we really don't have enough money for a bunch of primaries. In any other state, media publicity generated by the primaries would help Democratic name recognition, but the Utah media doesn't cover Democratic candidates anyway.

      Third, I get the point about letting the general public have a say and avoiding extreme candidates, but again, there's usually only one candidate anyways, and the general public does not usually care. And we generally pick some dude candidates (because that's all we have), who are either moderate or liberals doing a Hail Mary (or would it be Hail Moroni here in Utah?), because they know they won't win anyway. Moderates win more often here anyway.

      One thing I would change would be to up the number of delegates, and to have one or two more convention meetings to choose delegates.

      One Utah political writer had a really silly theory about why we were going to keep the convention system: Party leader and State Senator Jim Dabakis was afraid of losing his seat to a more moderate, less antagonistic candidate.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 07:35:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  something I did today (5+ / 0-)

    in the case of Oregon picking up another district in 2020, I did this:

     photo 6districts2020_zpsc4d84a72.png

    1st district: 57.47% Obama in 2012
    2nd district: 38.15% Obama
    3rd district: 64.97%
    4th district: 56.31%
    5th district: 54.99%
    6th district: 64.93%

    Walden's district is made more Republican from losing Walden's home county, Hood River, and some only slightly Republican leaning counties out, and shoving a bunch of DeFazio's territory in Southern Oregon in. Its a bit overpacked because these counties are mostly growing slower than the rest of the state, or not at all.

    Bonamici's district is much smaller, and her territory is the fastest growing in the state, so its drawn to absorb some growth. Its a bit less Democratic since its pulled out of Multnomah County, but it should still be safe since this is about how Democratic it was before 2012, and these areas seem to be continuing to get more Democratic.

    Blumenauer's 3rd is much less Democratic but still safe. It picks up Hood River, Wasco, Jefferson, and Deschutes counties and loses parts of mostly SE Portland and any foothold on the west side. Because Portland and Central Oregon are growing quite a bit, this district I also made a bit smaller to absorb some growth.

    DeFazio's district keeps its base in Lane County but otherwise loses everything south of there and Benton County as well, picking up Salem and parts of Marion County south of there. As a result it shifts from about D+2 to D+4, making it probably safe should he decide to retire. I made this district a little overpacked with population, but not much since the southern territory it lost is where most of the slowest or negative growth was.

    Schrader's district finally takes in all of Clackamas County, his base, and retreats from Marion County, and all points west, but picks up much of SE Portland. This only makes it about D+3, so still not safe, but a lot more Dem than it is now. While he may worry about a primary from having so much of Portland in the district, that's balanced by having all of Clackamas County, which should mitigate any risk. This district should grow close to the pace of the state, so I made it close to even.

    The 6th district is based on the coast and a few closely connected inland areas, like Benton, Polk, Columbia counties, and a bit of Yamhill, but also reaches into Multnomah County to take in the entire west side and a bunch of the inner east side. This is actually the whitest district on the map because of that combination. Outside of Portland and Polk County this district is growing slowly or losing population, so I made it a tiny bit bigger than it would be now to compensate.

    The current 5 district map splits 4 counties. My map splits 5, so not bad, and its not terribly ugly.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Jun 22, 2013 at 11:39:41 PM PDT

    •  How do you get partisan numbers (0+ / 0-)

      when they're not uploaded to DRA?

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 06:35:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  all five of the counties I split now have (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        precinct maps and precinct data available online, so I just spent a couple hours figuring it out.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 09:04:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Wish I could be there (0+ / 0-)

    but I've never managed to be in the US and have time for NN. Maybe next year. If anyone's in DC from mid-July to mid-October and wants to meet up, though, I'll be around.

  •  NJ-SEN: I read the NY Post so you (12+ / 0-)

    dont have to. Someone mentioned Drudge teasing a new scandal surrounding Menendez that will be reported in the Post.

    So I go to their website and here is the story: Menendez allegedly had an affair with a married newspaper publisher Cecilia Reynolds several years ago. There are apparently pics of them together vacationing in Puerto Rico, although none are shown in the story. Renyolds and her husband give basically "no comment" comments. And Menendez's office issues a denial.

    But even if this is true, this is really less than nothing in a Congress containing Mark Sanford, Mike Crapo and David Vitter.

  •  Conservative donors hold off from super PACs (5+ / 0-)

    after they saw almost no RoI in 2012: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 09:41:11 AM PDT

  •  what do Congressman Heck (R-NV) and Senator (6+ / 0-)

    Flake have in common? Sons who say really foul things. Heck claims that kind of language is not allowed in his home, but his son in one tweet said it was what his mother said.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 11:19:59 AM PDT

  •  Republican primary 2016 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, Zack from the SFV

    this article I think is pretty good at getting at why I see things the way I do, but not entirely. The do have a serious demographic problem and extremism problem, as the article describes. Generic D versus Generic R, in a neutral year, I think we'd win a comfortable victory.

    But I don't see the 2016 problem as they have to choose between a tea party style candidate or a more palatable "Romneyesque"candidate, as the article puts it. Their 2016 problem is that just about every Republican considering the race is fatally flawed. Chris Christie is about as popular with the Republican base as Obama is. Rand Paul has said some things about civil rights that might not be fatal in 2010 Kentucky but would be in an election where you need to win a bunch of states outside of the South and appeal to an electorate that is less than 85% white. Marco Rubio is voting against his own legislation that was supposed to make him famous, and even his involvement in immigration reform, even if he ends up voting against, could kill his chances in the primaries. And Ted Cruz is Ted Cruz.

    Someone like Bob McDonnell might be able to sneak through like Romney, but I think a lot of the country isn't ready for another white male Southern Republican, and I don't expect his issues to be as weakly attacked by our nominee as it was by Deeds.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 02:08:18 PM PDT

    •  It'll be interesting to see what happens. (0+ / 0-)

      I have no idea who will be the front runner.

      I'm thinking it'll either be Christie, or a dark horse.

      21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

      by aggou on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 06:30:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio. (0+ / 0-)

        Those are the only three who have a shot to win the nomination in my opinion.  I'd say Christie's the prohibitive favorite.  Not sure who would be second.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 08:17:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Which state legislature will flip control? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    I think NH Senate and MN House. Despite Corbett on the ticket, I don't think either chambers in PA flip. As Ryan over at RRH points out, Dems didn't win any seats in the State Senate in Ed Rendell's landslide victory.

  •  PA-Gov: Sabato has this at Lean Dem: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, Gygaxian

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 23, 2013 at 07:22:57 PM PDT

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