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Conventional wisdom holds that the Republicans will hold the House in 2014, and there is nothing unreasonable with that view. Democrats won the House national popular vote by one point in 2012, and yet still suffer a 32-seat minority. In fact, Republicans have been so effective at gerrymandering the House, that estimates suggest Democrats would have to win the House generic popular vote by 7-8 points to get the 17 seats they'd need for the majority. Crazy, huh?

That's not all. The president's party has averaged a loss of 26 seats in the House in the sixth year of his term since WWII, and of course, Democratic base groups are far less likely to turn out in an off-year election. So while conventional wisdom can be misguided, in this case, it's the safe bet for next year's elections.

And yet new polling from Democracy Corps suggests that Republicans are so incompetent that they genuinely risk losing control of the House.

In the polling, which featured an electorate shaped like 2010 (to give Dems a worst-case scenario), people prefer the Democratic Party over the teabaggers ... in Republican-held seats:

In seats held by Republicans, almost half rate the Republican Congress and Tea Party negatively.  The Democratic Party enjoys a net 6-point favorability advantage over the Republican Party in these Republican seats.
Obamacare is not hurting Democrats, even in GOP-held seats:
Republicans’ obsession with repeal is out-of-step with voters in even these Republican-held districts.  In the most competitive seats, voters favor implementing the law over repealing it by 8 points.
In 2010, seniors broke 59-38 for Republicans, buying into GOP claims that it was Democrats who wanted to kill Medicare. That GOP advantage appears to be gone:
Seniors broke heavily for Republicans in 2010, and they are a disproportionate voice in off-year elections. This survey shows the race tied with them, which would be a huge turnaround.
The toplines:
The Republicans overall are only winning in these 49 seats by 47 to 42 percent – the same result that they achieved in the first poll in 2007 when Democrats ultimately gained 21 seats. Much more importantly, the race is dead even in the 24 seats that form the top tier (42 to 43 percent).
And even more broadly speaking, look at the chart at the top of the page. a five-point lead is definitely getting close to that magical 7-8-point mark we need for the majority. Hilariously, Rasmussen showed a 5-point Democratic edge (43-38) in both February and March, at which point he magically stopped polling the congressional generic ballot. I wonder why ...

It's still an uphill fight, no doubt. But we're in the game, and victory is within reach.

Originally posted to kos on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 11:28 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (194+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, doroma, Bensonola, Azazello, Shockwave, Blazehawkins, Chaddiwicker, TheLizardKing, DefendOurConstitution, msmacgyver, Miss Blue, weck, glendaw271, skillet, Onomastic, hardart, Mary Mike, poopdogcomedy, gongee, LOrion, Crashing Vor, weatherdude, Supavash, New Dawning, puakev, Railfan, tempu, cskendrick, cfm, second gen, Sybil Liberty, MKinTN, Eileen B, DEMonrat ankle biter, nspguy, enemy of the people, implicate order, imfunnytoo, chrississippi, bartcopfan, cyncynical, aaraujo, Assaf, kat68, Its the Supreme Court Stupid, Edge PA, Preston S, Metalgirl, StellaRay, joedemocrat, CJB, LarisaW, BlueOak, here4tehbeer, Superskepticalman, NoFortunateSon, VirginiaBlue, edwardssl, BerkshireDem, muddy boots, susakinovember, billybam, rlochow, virginislandsguy, eeff, Kokomo for Obama, kevinpdx, Alice Olson, Empower Ink, Puffin, Lawrence, missLotus, jamess, 2thanks, TomP, Zack from the SFV, tegrat, blueoregon, dewtx, WSComn, eagleray, miracle11, willrob, Eyesbright, sewaneepat, MrsTarquinBiscuitbarrel, bewareofme, Facts Matter, begone, ericlewis0, Winston Sm1th, VTCC73, defluxion10, DoctorWho, Siri, anodnhajo, oldpotsmuggler, Stentorian Tone, noddem, TRPChicago, Sylv, Aocreata, leftykook, scribeboy, Nag, Gowrie Gal, JBL55, kerflooey, Powered Grace, Showman, ord avg guy, Wreck Smurfy, Al Fondy, greenomanic, milkbone, Noodles, Sue B, pileta, tommymet, petulans, ajr111240, moviemeister76, WinSmith, tin woodswoman, RudiB, viral, Overseas, jck, Its a New Day, flitedocnm, DFWmom, janmtairy, bythesea, GeorgeXVIII, sja, OrangeMike, el vasco, countwebb, antooo, Greasy Grant, blackjackal, Mr MadAsHell, CwV, wdrath, a2nite, quill, Texknight, asm121, enhydra lutris, SaintC, Says Who, gramofsam1, tardis10, Ishmaelbychoice, JamieG from Md, Ellen Columbo, Hawksana, artmartin, wadingo, gof, yella dawg, glitterscale, Vatexia, mconvente, SherwoodB, exNYinTX, SherriG, whaddaya, jgnyc, SteelerGrrl, Involuntary Exile, Sandy on Signal, jbsoul, brunoboy, BlueMississippi, Linda1961, kaliope, BlueNGoldJoe, wuod kwatch, Dodgerdog1, doorguy, Rooe, chuck utzman, Eric Nelson, Librarianmom, LSmith, sebastianguy99, Larsstephens, jes2, stevenaxelrod, tweeternik, kefauver, AreDeutz, AaronInSanDiego
  •  2014 shouldn't and can't be about Obama (31+ / 0-)

    beyond the fact that a Dem congress can take credit for pushing it through. Every single person here can make a difference helping their, or a friend's, district elect a Democrat to office, and right now even work on nominating a liberal one who will vote with Democrats always.

    I was gonna listen to that, but then, um, I just carried on living my life. - Aldous Snow

    by GoGoGoEverton on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 11:35:00 AM PDT

    •  If we behave like we did in 2010, (12+ / 0-)

      and so far we are, it will be a repeat of 2010.

      •  R's will run on Dems wanting to destroy Soc Sec. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mr Robert, glitterscale

        Just like they ran successfully on the Dems wanting to drestroy Medicare, in 2012.

        Count on it.

        But there is one big difference:

        In 2010 it was a total lie.

        In 2014, we have Obama's Chained CPI idea. Which, has never been repudiated.

        And Rs are absolutely counting on the calculus that disgust with the government always works in their favor, no matter that the abysmal record of Congress is clearly the result of deliberate Republican sabotage.

        (Harry, are you listening? The Dem refusal to do filibuster reform is a HUGE deal. It's not yet too late to fix that, but time is very fast running out.)

        Disgust means low turnout. Low turnout favors Republicans.

        I wish I could share kos' optimism.

      •  What do you mean (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gooserock, 714day, raboof

        "if we behave like we did in 2010"? You're not pushing that thoroughly debunked zombie lie that disappointed liberals brought us the shellacking of 2010, are you?

        Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

        by milkbone on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:49:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Could Also Refer to Our Party (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          glitterscale, milkbone, kefauver

          and its epic job of not motivating voters.

          We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

          by Gooserock on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:08:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Democrats have governed like a sorry lot (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          milkbone, Gygaxian

          I think he's mostly just saying that democrats have not really done much of anything with their power since 2006.

          Obamacare is basically the republican health care program from 1994. We are now in a worse place on drug wars than we were in 2008, our immigration reform is not real reform.

          13 years for citizenship? What the hell is that, and at the cost of a completely militarized border when we are experiencing our lowest levels of illegal immigration ever. We should be helping them through the desert and putting them on buses bound for farms in california, not making it harder to get in.

          NSA spying? Worse position, Patriot Act, worse position. Foreign trade agreements, worse position, we are negotiating new ones in complete secrecy!

          In general Obama has been very corporate, democrats have been as well.

          For me, it's more of a what's the point question? Why work to elect democrats when I know they aren't going to work for me.

          Hell in the 1960's with less than 30% national support we enacted civil rights reform through a constitutional amendment, we can't even get a committee vote on an amendment for gay marriage and it poles at over 50% nationally.

          And before you say marriage isn't a federal issue, inter racial marriage was legalized through a reading of the 14th amendment nationwide.  

          So yes, republicans are terrible, but democrats have recently been much of the same while paying lip service to their constituents when it's runup to election season.

      •  If the freakin' Teabaggers can do it, so can we (5+ / 0-)

        I mean, what does that say about us if we can't replicate and improve on their 2010 performance? They're not even much of an issue this time. This is a good time to focus on the this election. The GOP is a house divided (about 4 different ways) and their rebranding efforts are going nowhere. They are demoralized while the Dems in Congress are oddly holding together with a great deal of solidarity. For Democrats at least.

        Last time lots of Dems didn't show up because so many of us had the wind knocked out of us by Obama's lack of fight with the GOP and allowing himself to be marginalized. A lot of Democrats thought he was a solid left-of-center guy because they didn't scrutinize his voting record in the Senate and that came as a shock to many. This time we all know better and it's not so much about him this time. And frankly he still has lots of ardent supporters and they are allies in this fight. I think we'd all like more Dems in congress to push him ever more leftward as far as we can.

        We should all be in on finally using some political Ju-Jitsu on the GOP which is long overdue for a hard fall. Very simply, we will probably have good reasons to show up in numbers and Republicans won't.

        •  A lot of Dems sat out 2010 but not the liberals (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          stevenaxelrod

          Liberals voted in the same numbers we always do in midterms. It was the moderates who fell way off in 2010. The very people Democrats were trying to impress with all the bipartisanship and compromise. The Zombie Lie of 2010 needs to be killed because it's leading to some false and dangerous assumptions about the next election.

    •  When You Say Obama do You Mean Obamacare? (13+ / 0-)

      Because with multi-multi-multi-millions of people transitioning to the exchanges, many of whom used to have employer-provided healthcare (and many of whom used to have no healthcare at all) it's hard to imagine it won't be top-of-mind...

      Too Folk For You. - Schmidting in the Punch Bowl - verb - Committing an unexpected and underhanded political act intended to "spoil the party."

      by TooFolkGR on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:07:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, 'it' meaning 'Obamacare'. Doh and thanks. nt (6+ / 0-)

        I was gonna listen to that, but then, um, I just carried on living my life. - Aldous Snow

        by GoGoGoEverton on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:18:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well I'm At a Bit of a Loss (11+ / 0-)

          As to how you can say that the election "can't and shouldn't" be about Obamacare, when (A) it's going to be making a positive impact on millions and millions of voters and (B) one of the two choices on the ballot has done nothing for the last five years exept try to destroy it.

          Just my thoughts though. :)

          Too Folk For You. - Schmidting in the Punch Bowl - verb - Committing an unexpected and underhanded political act intended to "spoil the party."

          by TooFolkGR on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:25:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  ... but he added "except by pushing it through." (7+ / 0-)

            So that's taking credit. And that would be a really big difference from 2010, when darn near every congressional Democrat swallowed the GOP's Kool Aid attacks and acted as if they weren't even in that Congress.

            But still, your point is valid. The GOP will seize on every jot and tittle of negative news about OBAMACare, to deride it and put it and its supporters down. So for us, it's time to brag, state by state. To point out even in the most solidly Red GOP bastions how much better health care can be with the coverage and the prospects for reforms of health care in - wait for it - the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Writ large and bold.

            This year and next, the election needs to be about the do-nothing GOP House and the GOP filiblusterated Senate.

            We are helped almost every day by one unforced Republican error after another, particularly about women's health. There's no reason why what's happening in the GOP-controlled states is not relevant to Federal elections nationwide. We don't have to be as blinkered and inside-the-Beltway as the Washington Post.

            2014 IS COMING. Build up the Senate. Win back the House : 17 seats. Plus!

            by TRPChicago on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:39:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm Not Sure It Matters What it "Needs to Be" (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HeyMikey, yella dawg, wmspringer

              ...about.

              I think Health Care Reform is a huge chunk of what it's GOING to be about.

              And I'll say DON'T stop at saying, "Oh yeah, we pushed it through so throw us a bone here."

              Say: "Think of what MORE we could do without the obstruction!  We can lower costs further, make more lives better, save more lives.  All the good we've realized from Obamcare has come IN SPITE of intentional efforts to prevent any fine tuning or improvement of it before its implementation."

              Which brings the obstruction into the conversation in a meaningful way.

              Too Folk For You. - Schmidting in the Punch Bowl - verb - Committing an unexpected and underhanded political act intended to "spoil the party."

              by TooFolkGR on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:21:09 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Right on! (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                TooFolkGR, wmspringer

                And in spite of efforts to defund it. And how about ...

                Let's take a close look at what the GOP offer us as an alternative:
                [dead air, someone whistling, some soft voices with "er", "ah" and various throat clearings]

                2014 IS COMING. Build up the Senate. Win back the House : 17 seats. Plus!

                by TRPChicago on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:32:44 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I agree. Obamacare is 2014's Big Fuckin' Deal. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                TooFolkGR

                The #1 question about 2014 is whether the public's response to Obamacare will be mostly positive, mostly negative, or...muddled.

                If the response is muddled, then the #1 factor pushing the election will likely be the general factors that favor the party out of the White House in midterm elections. Which means the Dems will have to have something else big going on, or we'll lose. E.g., the GOP broke the usual pattern in the 2004 midterms because the country rallied around Dubya for the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.

                For the Dems to break the usual losing pattern in 2014, Obamacare (or something) will have to be as big a boost to the Dems as the wars were in 2004 for the GOP. That is, the Dems will need a Big Fuckin' Deal.

                It's possible Obama's new greenhouse regulations, to be announced tomorrow, could drive the 2014 elections. My prediction is that Obama will botch them as the Dems botched (politically) healthcare, by making them kick in after the elections, thus allowing the GOP to obfuscate/demonize them before people bother to learn what they're really about. Thus I predict the new greenhouse regs will have even less effect on 2014 than healthcare reform had on 2010 & 2012. I hope to be wrong.

                "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

                by HeyMikey on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:42:49 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think climate change energizes most voters (4+ / 0-)

                  We're passionate about it, as are the respectable pundits and most editorialists. But I doubt the electorate is.

                  For example, I'll wager most of the general public thinks the weather is getting crazier, but watch eyes glaze over at the very mention of the term "carbon tax." Either that, or the response is to be uncomfortable about new taxes that will hit everyone, if not absolutely adverse to the idea.

                  Will addressing the issue even in the most effective way possible get people to the polls for Democrats? Essential as it is to deal with this bundle of issues now and well, I think it's the Republicans who'll twist it into populist themes, reinforce it with their time-tested diatribes about more regulation and higher costs and make hay with it in 2014.

                  2014 IS COMING. Build up the Senate. Win back the House : 17 seats. Plus!

                  by TRPChicago on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 06:18:35 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  He's in control of the money and candidates (0+ / 0-)

      He also rules Dem public policy at the national level with an iron fist.

      So, yeah, its gonna be about him, for better or worse.  That's his choice, not ours.

      When he's the guy pulling on all the strings, who else can it be about.

      "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

      by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:41:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  if immigration reform (27+ / 0-)

    gets through the senate, and the house has to vote on it, that helps. if obama keeps trying for a grand bargain, that hurts. if the republicans keep trying to invent scandals, that helps. if obama keeps alienating liberals, that hurts.

    as usual, the best thing the democrats have going for themselves is the republicans. as usual, the worst thing the democrats have going for themselves is the democrats.

    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

    by Laurence Lewis on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 11:37:01 AM PDT

  •  Not to worry....The GOP isn't going to fuck up (10+ / 0-)

    anything between now and election day......snark.

    •  Many Were Saying About Them in 09-10 What (0+ / 0-)

      we're saying about them now. That however worked out terribly for us. Republicans understand that the midterm is the time to energize their base; and they also seek to do that.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:11:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  ACA kicks in big time in 2014 (25+ / 0-)

    and it might prove to be defining factor.  The GOP has lied from the get go and when voters figure out the benefits of Obamacare, those in the House who have been repeatedly calling for repeal will be exposed as the frauds they are.

    When someone is impatient and says, "I haven't got all day," I always wonder, How can that be? How can you not have all day? George Carlin

    by msmacgyver on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 11:38:10 AM PDT

    •  Since I'm an individual insurance purchaser, (10+ / 0-)

      I have recently been using the calculators and other information on sites like the Kaiser site, and am thrilled at what looks like an incredible cost saving beginning in January 2014.

      As a single healthy man in his late fifties, I'm paying almost $500/month for one of the highest deductible, highest out-of-pocket, 30/70 BC/BS plan with even a $200 prescription deductible and copays for preventative care, and it looks as if I may be able to get a better plan in the exchange - possibly even provided by BC/BS if I care that much about continuity - for maybe $250/month after premium support credits at my income of ~$32,000.

      Heck, if these numbers are anywhere near correct, this is almost as good as the elusive public option that we all - including me - complained about not having!

      A recent KFF poll - I even think it was FP'd here - found that, literally, fewer than 1/3 of Americans know anything about the benefits of the exchanges to ordinary people. As always, the idiotic news media, especially the TeeVee, couldn't be bothered to communicate anything about the benefits of the exchanges. But if tens of millions of health-insurance purchasers are seeing this sort of savings on premium expense come January 1, 2014, there will be a backlash - of the good kind - that will make the Republicans look even more idiotic and help us regain the House.

      I'm actually optimistic!

      "Bernie Madoff's mistake was stealing from the rich. If he'd stolen from the poor he'd have a cabinet position." -OPOL

      by blue in NC on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:40:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Despite the fact that I've been covered (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        blue in NC, sebastianguy99

        by Medicare since last year, I am a very big advocate of ACA and did as much research as I could to piss off the local RWers and conservobots.  I used to post to the comments board of the local paper and was an advocate since it was signed into law.

        I'm glad you are finding such money saving alternatives through the future exchanges.  I hope that Dem candidates take the time to educate themselves and get with the program.  

        When someone is impatient and says, "I haven't got all day," I always wonder, How can that be? How can you not have all day? George Carlin

        by msmacgyver on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:59:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  it's interesting that buying insurance will still (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, msmacgyver

        be like buying stock.   Mucho convoluted language, small print and options with a possible, and I mean possible, financial gain.  

        I am truly happy for you, but most of us will not feel a thing.

        ecstatically baffled

        by el vasco on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:06:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I really don't consider myself to be a gullible (4+ / 0-)

          fool.

          I agree with much of your characterization of the present and future of health insurance, but I believe that there will be significant cost savings and benefit improvements in the exchanges.

          Please do what I did and take the time to educate yourself about the exchanges. This is not meant to be an insult, just a request. Anybody who qualifies for premium support credits - and that will be tens of millions of current financially-strapped policyholders - will feel a noticeable financial benefit, I believe.

          I certainly hope I'm not being overly optimistic. My ideal would still be a European-style single-payer system.

          "Bernie Madoff's mistake was stealing from the rich. If he'd stolen from the poor he'd have a cabinet position." -OPOL

          by blue in NC on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:20:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I remain skeptical but hope you're right. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            blue in NC

            and i certainly don't consider you a fool or gullible.  I'm just seriously bummed that we can't get the obvious solution.  Most of the civilized world has worked this out.

            ecstatically baffled

            by el vasco on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 03:38:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Agreed! And after I posted my comment and (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              el vasco

              reread it, I realized it came out sounding a bit like I was accusing you of implying I was a gullible fool. Sorry about that! I thought no such thing. :-)

              "Bernie Madoff's mistake was stealing from the rich. If he'd stolen from the poor he'd have a cabinet position." -OPOL

              by blue in NC on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 05:28:18 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  If . . . (13+ / 0-)

    Democrats are able to continue to motivate activists to vote, get out the vote an contribute, without too many succumbing to NSA "what's the difference" nihilism.

    The GOP: "You can always go to the Emergency Room."

    by Upper West on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 11:43:52 AM PDT

    •  The Democrats need to help us do that by (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sue B, Says Who, jbsoul

      actually demonstrating a difference between them and the Republicans on the NSA stuff. They're off to a bad start. :-(

      "Bernie Madoff's mistake was stealing from the rich. If he'd stolen from the poor he'd have a cabinet position." -OPOL

      by blue in NC on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:42:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If both parties are equally bad on the NSA stuff, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Upper West

        that does not mean that both parties are equally bad on everything, so the NSA stuff should be a wash.  Why would Democrats being bad on NSA mean that electing a Republicans is somehow a better alternative?

        “The future depends entirely on what each of us does every day.” Gloria Steinem

        by ahumbleopinion on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:28:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

          It's one thing to advocate for changes to the NSA policy.  It's another to attack Dems as no different and threaten to sit out 2014, etc. just because of this issue (which is what I get from a lot of diaries and comments).

          The GOP: "You can always go to the Emergency Room."

          by Upper West on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 05:21:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  The ground game is going to be (19+ / 0-)

    crucially important.

    So is the ongoing fight to actually inform voters about what has and is going on.

    Thanks for this. We simply cannot allow any other option but winning.

    What the Republicans are doing in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and elsewhere is what they will do everywhere if they are allowed.

    "Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism." Hubert H. Humphrey

    by Onomastic on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 11:44:37 AM PDT

    •  Ground game is always important in midterms (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Empower Ink, Facts Matter, ericlewis0

      Too many people don't bother to vote, not because they don't care, but they don't focus on it.

      I'm hoping Ohio isn't a big battleground this time around.  We need a break from too many negative ads and endless pollsters and GOTV calls every night.

      "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

      by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:07:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hopefully we all got trained in 2012. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Onomastic

        The highest form of spiritual practice is self observation with compassion.

        by NCJim on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:53:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Ohio will be a HUGE battleground (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Onomastic, mconvente, brunoboy

        and in fact, already, because the field is solidifying and the candidates are already out there. Taxin' John Kasich is already weakening himself with the RobsOhio secrecy crap that's already blowing up and is likely to explode into a major scandal in the next year, plus his latest tax/budget scheme is going to raise everybody's taxes, pretty much, but most heavily on poor and working people.

        Alas, thanks to gerrymandering, we only have a single real swing district out of 16, which have been rigged to favor Republicans 12-4 (despite Ohioans voting in the majority for a Democrat last year).

        That would be Oh-14, a district the GOP map zombies didn't work too hard to protect because of Steve LaTouette's inexplicable popularity. But LaTourette surprised everyone by retiring after the maps were put in place.

        David Joyce is vulnerable. He's desperately trying to pull the old LaTourette trick of talking "moderate" and voting hardcore conservative.

        Michael Wager can win it.

        http://www.michaelwagerforohio.com/

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:04:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Then I'll switch to Netflix and turn off the phone (0+ / 0-)

          and I'm not sure about Michael Wager.  He appears to be another OFA/DLC type.

          He supports chained CPI for SS, a real loser in my book.

          Hopefully we'll find someone better to run.

          "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

          by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:16:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And that would be a first (0+ / 0-)

            First time I would ever refuse to campaign for the Dem candidate.  It's not a decision I'll be making lightly, and I haven't made a final decision, but you have to make a stand at some point.  Otherwise change will never happen and our children and grandchildren will face a much bleaker future.

            No, Michael Wager is no Betty Sutton, nor is he a Marcia Fudge or John Boccieri, or Tim Ryan or Marcy Kaptur.  

            "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

            by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:19:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Couldn't agree more. (9+ / 0-)

      The consequences of 2010 are like a boulder thrown in a river w/rings of effect spreading out for miles. There's a lot of "no difference in the parties" thing going on here now, more than usual, as well as more Democratic Party bashing than I've ever seen here.  

      This is SO frustrating to me, because I see the difference between the parties in many ways. All one has to do is compare Minnesota to its neighbor, Wisconsin.

      Just by having a Democratic governor, despite a republican house and senate, after 2010, MN was able to stop what Wisconsin couldn't, maintain a decent if not great job creation rank, avoid hollowing out education, disenfranchising unions, stopping Sex Ed in schools, etc. etc.

      Now, since 2012 w/a Democratic house, senate and governor, we have made gay marriage legal in Minnesota. We will have no state sponsored invasive procedures on women. We will not see the abuses of power we've watched happen in Wisconsin over and over again. No gravel braking going on here. At least till 2014.

      There are SO many examples of the contrasts between these states, one could go on and on, ALL because of who's in office in each of them. ALL because, yes Virginia, there is a difference between Democrats and republicans.

      These two side by side states tell an amazing story of the outcomes of elections and how much they really do matter.

      "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

      by StellaRay on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:36:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, being a North Carolinian has DEFINITELY (6+ / 0-)

      brought this to my attention with stunning Omnimax clarity!

      If there is an adequate ground game to win Democratic House seats, that would translate to an adequate ground game to win state legislative seats here, too.

      And our citizens - of which 42% are registered Democrats - are already disgusted by what the Republicans are doing in Raleigh. We may have a lot of "Blew Dawgs" here, but they're still Democrats...and what the Republicans (and Art Pope and AFP and the Kochs and ALEC) are doing is waaaaaay over the top. Many unaffiliateds - and even quite a few Republicans - will not vote for Legislative Republican incumbents either.

      "Bernie Madoff's mistake was stealing from the rich. If he'd stolen from the poor he'd have a cabinet position." -OPOL

      by blue in NC on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:47:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  All the predawn drama in TX state leg reminded me (15+ / 0-)

    of your comments on Texas's future, first as a purple state, then as a blue one.

    I think the Republicans' devoted to as cruel a definition of anti-woman as possible will do them any more favors than their devotion to as cruel a definition of anti-immigration as possible.

    Because from the cheap seats it looks like the TX-GOP is out to be out of a job as quickly as they can manage.

    •  2014 is probably too soon (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sebastianguy99

      to hold out much hope for change in Texas.

      2016 is a much brighter prospect, especially as it will be a full election.

      Expect Texas to be a major spend for the Republicans. There are no circumstances in which they can lose Texas and hope to remain a national force, and they know it.

      They will still lock up the rural areas, probably for the next generation, but cows don't vote, people do, and the people live in cities :)

      I hope that the quality of debate will improve,
      but I fear we will remain Democrats.

      Who is twigg?

      by twigg on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:17:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not if we succeed in registration and GOTV efforts (0+ / 0-)

        We do not have to wait for demographic change or the right cohort to mature. We already have a couple  of million eligible, but unregistered citizens who should be more receptive to the Democratic Party's message.

        I still hope for a backlash against Republican overreach in education, women's choice, and health care. They are fighting uphill against women, the health care industry, and people tired of Governor Perry and his merry band of idiots.

        The politicians may be bought, and the system corrupt, but it is our duty to fix these things.

        by sebastianguy99 on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 10:21:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  We need to contest every election, in every (20+ / 0-)

    district, right down to city librarian and township dog catcher.

    The sun's not yellow, it's chicken. B. Dylan

    by bgblcklab1 on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 11:47:14 AM PDT

    •  If Dr. Dean was running DNC we'd be winning. (13+ / 0-)

      I think if Dr. Howard Dean had been head of DNC after 2008, Dems would done much better in 2010 and could have won in 2012.

      •  I agree. (6+ / 0-)

        Tim Kaine was the chairman of the DNC after Dean was unceremoniously kicked to the curb. Everyone was always mocking RNC chairman Michael Steele - what a clown, ha, ha. But he was out there hustling, and he ended up winning big.

        Kaine was utterly worthless. I don't know how he managed to fly under the radar with no public criticism, even after LOSING TEDDY KENNEDY'S SEAT! Not to mention the cavalcade of fail that was 2010. The only races he didn't lose were the ones where the crazy Tea Party base nominated extra scary loons.

        Debbie Wasserman-Schultz seems to be doing a better job, but I would be thrilled to see Dr. Dean back on the job, in some capacity.

        •  Part of the problem with Dean's (5+ / 0-)

          50 state strategy is the hatred of Blue Dogs in some quarters.  We split our own power by not getting it that a Blue Dog votes with Dems 90% of the time, at least, and the conservative rhetoric is REQUIRED if they want to win again in a Red State.  

          Before we call on him we need to decide if rigorous ideology trumps numbers.  

          I'm not looking for a love that will lift me up and carry me away. A love that will stroll alongside and make a few amusing comments will suffice.

          by I love OCD on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:42:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Horsepucky (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            enhydra lutris, artmartin, jbsoul

            If by "Blue Dog" you mean someone who votes against health care, favors cuts in social security and Medicare, and adamantly opposes women's reproductive freedom, these candidates help us LOSE not win.

            Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

            by anastasia p on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:10:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Look I really don't care one way or (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sebastianguy99

              the other.  I vote for the person who most closely reflects my values and ideology, knowing they're not likely to guarantee equal pay, or changing our rape culture, or cutting the defense budget by 90%.  

              I'm saying Dean brought us Blue Dogs and clearly that's seen as a disaster for the Party by a lot of bloggers and pundits.  So let's not rehire him.  It would clearly not go well.

              I'm not looking for a love that will lift me up and carry me away. A love that will stroll alongside and make a few amusing comments will suffice.

              by I love OCD on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 05:42:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  I disagree. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            artmartin
            the conservative rhetoric is REQUIRED if they want to win again in a Red State.
            Good policy is good politics.  Idiotic and wrong criticisms of good policy damage the country and the party.

            The National Debt will not kill you in your sleep.
            Unemployed people and people on welfare are not lazy druggies.

            We need people to stand up loud and proud and say that American citizens deserve good government.

            -7.75 -4.67

            "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

            There are no Christians in foxholes.

            by Odysseus on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:19:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You cannot know better than the people who live (0+ / 0-)

              ...in these places. If they tell you what is necessary to win in their areas, listen up. What works in blue Illinois and Austin, Tx. doesn't work in Louisiana and Midland.

              Conservadem or Blue Dog >any Republican. Someone who votes with you 70-80% of the time will always be better than someone who votes with you less so.

              Governor Dean was correct when he said that instead of having people parachute in from safe blue areas into red-purplish ones, we need to develop persuasive voices from within those areas. If you do not talk as the locals, they ignore you. It worked and some just cannot live with it.

              Frankly, I thought it was the Right who had a rigid standard for inclusion and that the Left wasn't so authoritarian.

              The politicians may be bought, and the system corrupt, but it is our duty to fix these things.

              by sebastianguy99 on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 10:34:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Not accepting your statistics, but even it we (0+ / 0-)

            did, the problem with Blue Dogs is that the conservadems do not support them, hence their disproportionate losses in 2010.  All kinds of people support liberal candidates in other states, as well as in their own, with direct contributions, and even traveling across state lines to help on the ground. One never hears of this happening with Blue Dogs. Those who support the status quo and/or are even to the right of that seemingly don't pony up for Blue Dogs unless they are in their own home state.

            That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

            by enhydra lutris on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:45:37 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Stats from Kos, also an awareness (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              enhydra lutris, bgblcklab1

              that if the cause is lost already, let them vote safe conservative.  

              Alan Grayson got his strong Progressive ass handed to him in 2010.  He came back by sounding less angry and righteous, IIRC.  

              It's not quite as simplistic as you seem to think.  

              I'm not looking for a love that will lift me up and carry me away. A love that will stroll alongside and make a few amusing comments will suffice.

              by I love OCD on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 05:47:08 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Just pointing out that it isn't just that lefties (0+ / 0-)

                don't support Blue Dogs - it seems that the righties don't either, while lefties do at least support lefties.

                That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

                by enhydra lutris on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 06:11:31 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  And I specifically mentioned that (0+ / 0-)

                  a certain cohort of lefties hate Blue Dogs, many if them located here.  So this may not be the right site for a Draft Dean movement.  I think even a corrupt Democrat beats the sanest Republican any day of the week, but hesitate to mention that when the wreck list is full of derision for any Democrat who isn't actively calling Republicans lying scum traitors.  There's a real pro-bully faction baying at the moon right now, best lay low.

                  I'm not looking for a love that will lift me up and carry me away. A love that will stroll alongside and make a few amusing comments will suffice.

                  by I love OCD on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 08:26:33 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Because party purity is working out so well (0+ / 0-)

            for the tea-bagging party, we should follow their example.

            The sun's not yellow, it's chicken. B. Dylan

            by bgblcklab1 on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 08:26:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I hardly remember Tim Kaine as DNC chair (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian

          That gives you a general idea of how bad the Democratic Party was when Kaine was DNC chairman.

          Debbie Wasserman Schultz is only slightly better than Kaine.

          Quite frankly, if Republicans don't use Chained CPI against the Democrats in the 2014 elections, Republicans should demand that Reince Priebus be fired right away. The only reason why Priebus was successful as Wisconsin GOP chair was because the Wisconsin Democratic organization was (and still is) an even bigger joke than the Kaine-era DNC.

          "It's not enough to be in the majority, you have to stand for something." -Russ Feingold

          by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:48:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree (4+ / 0-)

        The "50 state strategy" poured money into Ohio, building a big organization that was still in place and active in 2010. (Still is).

        But because of some ground-level mistakes, primarily coming from our governor's office, we lost everything . And the reasons were extremely local, personal and grassroots. Howard Dean could not have changed a single thing.

        Here's a hint (DCCC, are you listening?) You CANNOT motivate Democratic women activists, who form the backbone of your volunteer force, if you are running anti-choice radicals on the Democratic ticket. Women will be angry. They won't make calls. They won't knock on doors. They won't GOTV. They don't want to hear that we need to be a "big tent" that includes people who want to strip them of all agency over their lives.

        No. Stop. Don't do it. DCCC, stop recruiting her NOW. She helped shipwreck the Democrats in 2010 and could do it again.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:08:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That is where it is the job of the conservadems, (0+ / 0-)

          in and out of state to step up and fill that gap, knowing full well that certain party cadres will not work for and donate to these types of candidates. The simple fact is that they never do so, so financial and on the ground support plummets. It isn't becasue the left bails on these candidates, but becasue the right wing, whose candidates they are, won't bother to actually support them other than with rhetoric.

          That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

          by enhydra lutris on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:49:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Just because Ohio messed up (0+ / 0-)

          by letting the party run a DLC type doesn't mean the entire 50 state strategy didn't work.  It did in many other states, including other parts of Ohio.

          "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

          by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 02:30:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  True, such a missed opportunity (0+ / 0-)

        A successful, forward-thinking strategy that was rebuilding the Dem Party brand and it got tossed aside for the internet version of old school, heavy handed, corrupt machine politics.

        We can rebuild once Obama is gone.

        "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

        by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 02:03:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  It appears that some predictions were wrong. (9+ / 0-)

    Earlier this year, there were an awful lot of people predicting that the administration's little game of footsie about Chained CPI was going to give the Republicans a weapon with which to attack the Democrats.

    That doesn't appear to be the case.

    Art is the handmaid of human good.

    by joe from Lowell on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 11:49:33 AM PDT

    •  Thankfully the Administration... (10+ / 0-)

      ...wisely and quietly tossed Chained CPI to the side. Rogoff & Reinhardt getting publicly discredited was the best thing to happen for this administration in a long time.

      The Grand Bargain must be stopped at all costs to protect the 99%.

      by cybrestrike on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 11:53:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Chained CPI is still on the table (8+ / 0-)

      and the GoP hasn't taken the bait.  SS and Medicaid cuts are still a very real threat to low income seniors.

      It's way too early to predict they won't use it.  They will.

      "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

      by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:09:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Center for American Progress (6+ / 0-)

        included chained CPI as a debt reducing mechanism if paired with raising the benefit levels to above the poverty line, and that's the barb in the Grand Bargain- sure we'll pretend the debt is terribly important if you'll agree that no Senior should live in poverty.  They've been chumped often enough not to bite, so far.  Either way it's a win, and I suspect the raise in base benefits will become an issue as we get closer to 2014.  It's a demographic the Republicans have counted on.  Make the House talk about how Seniors are doing fine.  We're bound to get some truly asshat comments, and The War On Seniors takes center stage.

        I'm not looking for a love that will lift me up and carry me away. A love that will stroll alongside and make a few amusing comments will suffice.

        by I love OCD on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:52:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  WH still has chained CPI in their budget (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mr Robert, jbsoul

          and chained CPI is a cut to SS.  They also still have Medicare cuts in the budget.  

          Unless the WH has revised their budget to remove these cuts and resubmitted it to the House, the cuts are still in there.

          And that means the GOP will make all Dem candidates run on it.

          Eleventy-dimensional chess won't help.   And don't get me started on how much money Dem candidates will have to waste defending this idiotic policy when the money could have been better spent on party and brand building.  

          But nooo, we have to spend millions in the midterms on tv and radio ads trying to explain why voters should back the Dem candidate, even though POTUS wants to cut SS benefits.  And yeah, I'm looking forward to going door to door trying to defend it.

          This will have to go down in history as one of the most boneheaded political mistakes ever, but someone obviously feels they'll get rich doing it.

          "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

          by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:02:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Like the didn't do in 2012? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Jeff Simpson, I love OCD

            Betty, you spent the last half of 2011 assuring us that the Republicans were going to make the Dem candidates run on what Obama put "on the table" in the debt ceiling talks.

            You used exactly the same logic to come to this conclusion, and you were wrong.

            Learn a lesson.

            Art is the handmaid of human good.

            by joe from Lowell on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:08:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  As for your CAP argument (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mr Robert

          CAP isn't running for office in 2014.

          And they also recently came to their senses and rejected the austerity BS.

          If you have a link for your claims, provide it.

          "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

          by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:03:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  True, that's what made me think (0+ / 0-)

            of them, their response to the R&R kerfluffle was to remove a number of budget suggestions.  I'm assuming that you know that Obama's budget wasn't written by God's finger on stone tablets and hasn't even been debated in Congress.  It's laughable to assume wholesale agreement and immediate passage.  Given that Obama has a history of strengthening the safety net, none of gutting it, I'm pretty confident there will be an invitation to wage war on seniors the Republicans can't pass up.  

            I'm not looking for a love that will lift me up and carry me away. A love that will stroll alongside and make a few amusing comments will suffice.

            by I love OCD on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:10:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  So has Obama taken it out of the budget? (0+ / 0-)

              No he hasn't.  That's all that matters and that's all we'll have to answer to as we go door to door next year.

              "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

              by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:23:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  And it's on paper therefore IT WILL (0+ / 0-)

                HAPPEN!  The reason you mock 11 dimensional chess is you don't get how it works.  Democrats yelling about Republicans being nefarious supporters of corporate rule is automatically moved into the trashbin of "politics". You know it's real, I know it, most Americans don't.  Until they're maneuvered into actually talking about an issue no one knows where they stand.  Seniors vote for the guys who are trying to destroy the safety net because they think Dems are playing politics when they say that.  They will only get it when enough Akins blurt out the ugly truth because they're so lost in ODS they can't stick to the approved talking points.  

                Obama has never hurt the social safety net, ever, not once.  It's silly to ignore that reality.  

                I'm not looking for a love that will lift me up and carry me away. A love that will stroll alongside and make a few amusing comments will suffice.

                by I love OCD on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 05:34:54 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  I heard the same prediction in 2011. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        doroma, artmartin, Jeff Simpson

        The "on the table" proposals were going to be death for the Democrats, and the Republicans were going to use them to great effect in the 2012 elections.

        And then they didn't.

        But this time for sure?

        Art is the handmaid of human good.

        by joe from Lowell on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:06:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  So why is it a good idea (0+ / 0-)

          to make Dem candidates run on SS cuts - real ones that have been proposed.

          Keep in mind, the economy is still in terrible shape.

          "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

          by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 02:32:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You remind me of a Furbie. (0+ / 0-)

            It's so tempting to believe they are awake and aware when they're apparently interacting with each other.  But when you try to engage with one you realize they are incapable of listening to and reacting to anything you say, just repeating tired mantras from a very short list of internal loops.

          •  They don't have to run on them. (0+ / 0-)

            Did you see any Democrats running on the "on the table" Social Security and Medicare cuts from the debt ceiling talks?

            In any 2012 Congressional races, or the presidential race, did you see a single race in which those proposals played a role?

            Art is the handmaid of human good.

            by joe from Lowell on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 11:39:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with you, Betty. If the TeaOP were not so (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PlinytheWelder, jbsoul

        full of hate for anything and everything Obama, they would immediately accept the so-called "Grand" (for whom?) Bargain w/ Chained CPI, and I believe that President Obama would STILL jump on it in a heartbeat.  

        Then the administration's major initiative would be criss-crossing the country to convince (aka, hoodwink) the American electorate into applauding and celebrating how wonderful the "bi-partisan" cuts to their SS benefits will be.  And, abracadabra--the Dem president and his willing Dem accomplices in the Senate and House will have ecstatically done the GOP's dirty work for them, and every GOP candidate gets to run against those horrible, unfeeling people in the 'democrat' party who cut benefits for (gasp)... seniors. Hooray--happy days are here again!!!

        SS saved by the GOP wingnut Obama Derangement Syndrome.  Who woulda thunk it?

        •  The White House thunk it, that's who. (4+ / 0-)

          If the Republicans weren't too nuts to take the deal, the White House wouldn't have used this gambit over and over to great effect.

          You understand that the Republicans are too nuts to take such a deal. Why is it so impossible that the most successful professional politician in our nation understands it, too, and acts accordingly?

          Art is the handmaid of human good.

          by joe from Lowell on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:09:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh wash your mouth out with soap (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            joe from Lowell

            Someone on DailyKos using a little logic?  Why, why, why...you should be banned.... lol

          •  Obama proposed SS cuts to hurt the GOP? (0+ / 0-)

            Yeah, tell that to the voters.  "Who would you rather have cut your SS benefits, Democrats or Republicans?"  Yes, that's going to sell really well, especially when voters know that no SS cuts are necessary.

            "If you can't take their money, eat their food, drink their booze and then vote against them, you have no business being in DC."

            by Betty Pinson on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 02:34:38 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Once again, Betty, I agree with you. (0+ / 0-)

            •  Not what joe is saying. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              joe from Lowell

              He's saying Obama knows damn well the republicans won't bite on his chained CPI WITH the other part of his deal. So far it's hard to argue with that in that the republicans haven't shown the slightest interest in the chained CPI offer as presented, OR in negotiating a compromise. They don't do compromise.

              Obama's advantage, politically, whether you like it or not, is that he appears open to compromise and the republicans do not---and what Obama does and doesn't do of course, effects the public's perception of the Democrats.  If you read Kos's article today on some recent polling, you'll find that's not going well for the GOP.

              "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

              by StellaRay on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 02:59:23 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  The voters who just reelected Obama? (0+ / 0-)

              The voters who just gave lots of seats to the Dems? Even after the debt ceiling talks?

              We just saw this movie. The voters would likely freak right out if there were actual Social Security or Medicare cuts, the way they responded to the cuts to Medicare Advantage in the ACA. But to trial balloons floated for political effect and never acted upon?

              The Republicans didn't even bring the subject up in the 2012 campaign. The people who predicted that were wrong.

              So why would it be any different this time?

              Art is the handmaid of human good.

              by joe from Lowell on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 11:36:57 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Perhaps I am wrong, but the WH also (0+ / 0-)

            appeared to "thunk" that the GOP would compromise to avoid the  sequestration from going into effect, due to the proposed Defense cuts.  The rest is history.

            I do not believe that Pres. Obama calmed down on the Chained CPI push because of the Repubs.  I think he "mis-underestimated" that the usual Dem accomplices/capitulators in the Senate and House put 2+2 together, and figured out that Obama won't be running for office again, but THEY will.  They knew that cutting SS (even with a pretty shade of lipstick on that pig) is not conducive to retaining their own salaries and benefits.

            •  And while they were wrong about that prediction... (0+ / 0-)

              we have the actual history of the debt ceiling talks and the fiscal cliff talks to demonstrate that the administration is right about this: the Republicans will not bite on big tax hikes.

              Art is the handmaid of human good.

              by joe from Lowell on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 11:38:20 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Oh stay on topic (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Heftysmurf, Rooe, joe from Lowell

        For crying out loud.  Talk of chained CPI has been on the table for how long now and do we have Chained CPI?  It's A BARGAINING CHIP, something they can dangle in front of the idiot Republicans because they know they won't bite AND it's an issue that can get upcoming Democratic stars like Elizabeth Warren noticed and on the media.  If you haven't figured that out by now you're either grossly naive or just trying to stir up trouble.

        •  I can't get too mad at people who don't get this. (0+ / 0-)

          Barack Obama is a very crafty, very slippery, very intelligent operator. The guy's got skeelz, and he's using them to run a piece of misdirection.

          I can't really blame people who don't see it. It took me weeks to work out what the hell was going on back in June-July 2011.

          Art is the handmaid of human good.

          by joe from Lowell on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 11:44:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  So, the country is begging for decent leadership? (5+ / 0-)

    Does anyone see Democrats willing to step up and accept this challenge? [I'm talking about the politicians running for office.]

    Looks right now to me that 2014 will be an "arms-length" election; Dems are going to be on the defensive about the economy and Obama, and will keep him at arms length---even though they wouldn't have to if they had any serious political skills. People like him, they like Democratic positions on things, and they could certainly be led to the belief that Obamacare is a good thing.

    The country is begging for non-batshit leadership, and congressional Dems have sat firmly on the sidelines for a long, long time. Spending all your time pushing back against GOPer craziness isn't politics, it's reactionary. People want to know what Democrats will do. I'm not 100% sure Democrats know what they want to do or are convinced of stuff outside of centrist pablum. It's quite tragic for the Party.

  •  There's some great stuff happening at the state (6+ / 0-)

    level - Dems going on offense to talk about making voting easier instead of just playing defense on phony "voter fraud" stuff.  Gerrymandering is a big problem -- the 2010 results were under the old maps, and 2012, with Obama on the ticket and with a substantial net vote for Democratic House candidates, still resulted in a loss -- but state houses and governorships (ALEC's laboratories of fuck) are ripe for the picking.  I think the x-factor is what republican turnout looks like.  Will they be as motivated?

    Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

    by Loge on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 11:52:56 AM PDT

    •  limpuglicants are ALWAYS motivated! (0+ / 0-)

      they will not sit this mid-term out.  and trapped red state dems will have to be.  those of us who reside in the confederacy do not have any local organization at all to look to. there is no money, there is no passion.  Our state leaders are old and weak, beaten to a pulp. When national organizers show up to help they are met with shrugs.
      I suggest that if you want to swing the house, you better bring lots and lots of money, a strong campaign, and even stronger candidates.  Exposing Alec should be the easiest take down ever, why isn't it? Connecting the dots between campaign contributions, business collusion in the state, who benefits should be a no brainer - but takes a very hiku and expensive media campaign.

  •  How can this be true? (6+ / 0-)

    Just the other night an MSNBC talking head was telling me how difficult it will for us to hang onto the Senate in 2014, let alone reclaim the House. He went on to imply that the countries gerrymandering is so bad we may not gain any ground until the next decade. Whoa is me, eh.

    Needless to say, at that point I decided it was time for some channel surfing.

    Fuck me! He made it. Will Scarlet

    by dagolfnut on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 11:52:58 AM PDT

  •  2014 will depend mostly on ONE thing: what (7+ / 0-)

    Democrats will do with the power they have in the White House and Senate, between now and fall 2014.

    Yes, this includes real viable and meaningful efforts that are subverted only by the GOP-controlled House. But excuses are not enough for winning elections.

    Hopefully, Dems will also show an ability to wield power with "only" 2/3 control.

    For Goodness sake, Bush got the authorization to use military force when the Senate had a Dem majority.

    Then in 2007 when Dems controlled both houses of Congress, they could not stop or even slow the Iraq war, despite this being a leading 2006 campaign promise.

    So both things are required: picking issues and stands that benefit the public and reflect Democratic values - and being effective in getting enough meaningful things done.

    Fail in either -> likely fail in 2014.

  •  Hopefully we won't (6+ / 0-)

    self destruct.

    I, as a proud liberal Democrat for one, refuse to do that.

    Hope springs eternal.

  •  Florida petition drive to legalize weed (9+ / 0-)

    The petition would put the weed vote on the 2014 ballot. This may get out the youth vote as well as baby boomers with cataracts, etc.

  •  Yay. n/t (0+ / 0-)

    The excuses for Obama's behavior have long since passed the point of predictability neccessary to qualify as an absurd production of Kabuki Theater.

    by Johnathan Ivan on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:12:51 PM PDT

  •  Democrats need to form a highly visible (5+ / 0-)

    "Competence Caucus" in the House, people with specialization in policy areas who will form a united front for action.

    One member becomes the point person to become the face of that issue, whether it's infrastructure, the environment, bank reform, civil rights, education, what have you.  That Member then barnstorms the nation with other Members in tow to demonstrate a capacity for collaborative, collective action.

    Democrats need to be seen as the party that will do things.  It is the most politically exploitable difference between the two parties at a moment when incumbency is sure to be a dirty word.

    2014 needs to be framed as the party that will versus the party that won't.  

    "And now we know that government by organized money is just as dangerous as government by organized mob." -- FDR

    by Mogolori on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:13:27 PM PDT

    •  Love the idea, but I would add (0+ / 0-)

      That the people should actually be competent in those areas (as implied by the title). There are plenty of people in Congress who have declared themselves experts in areas they clearly know nothing about; I'd like anyone in your competence caucus to have credentials in whatever area he or she is the point person for.

  •  Watch the debt ceiling in the fall.... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, ericlewis0, Facts Matter, doroma

    Boehner can't negotiate because he can't deliver.  So likeliest outcome as we get near to default is major crisis that beats up the markets badly (down 15% last debt limit fight).   Prime opportunity for Dems to wrap the Tea Party even more tightly around the GOP's neck heading into 2014, when Obamacare kicks in (with positive results, I expect).  If the House destroys immigration reform during 2013, GOP should be pretty toxic even to rank-and-file Republicans.

  •  Aww, that's cute (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mr Robert

    Like you think the Dems are somehow different than the GOP.

    Given the recent president's performance my response to you is

    YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME IF YOU THINK THIS WILL MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE AT ALL.

    I just love all the Wall Street and Monsanto guys Obama's stacked the deck with running the agencies that are supposed to look out for our wellbeing.

    Wake me up when there's a VIABLE party with a chance of real change for the better.

    Obama did offer "change." He never said it'd be good.

    THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN CONTROL PEOPLE IS TO LIE TO THEM. You can write that down in your book in great big letters. -- L. Ron Hubbard Technique 88

    by xenubarb on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:21:53 PM PDT

  •  6th year midterm election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oldpotsmuggler, JBL55

    Maybe this will be like 1998. Republicans lost seats and nearly lost control of the House, thanks to their moralizing and attacks on the president, leading to impeachment. Clinton: American Experience: The Survivor was broadcast on my local PBS station yesterday.

  •  Speaking of elections, there's one tomorrow. (8+ / 0-)

    We can help elect Markey to the Senate to work with Senator Warren.

    A kossack who has been doing amazing work on this crucial race has a diary up if anyone is inclined to give him/her some much deserved support.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    "Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism." Hubert H. Humphrey

    by Onomastic on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:29:13 PM PDT

  •  much as I would like to believe it so, Kos . . . (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mr Robert

    I think you are overly optimistic.

  •  Absolutely! (0+ / 0-)

    But we need to make the 2014 elections about the Republicans, their radicalism, and their utter inattention to even the most basic responsibilities of a group that seeks to participate in government as informed adults.

    "The test of our progress is not whether we add to the abundance of those who have much. It is whether we provide enough to those who have little. " --Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by jg6544 on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:31:36 PM PDT

    •  rather than the good that Democrats do? (0+ / 0-)

      that is a problem in the long run, I think.

      •  Democrats (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wmspringer

        Have enacted the first comprehensive healthcare plan in U. S. history; have at least tried to bail the country out of a recession the way all competent economists say we should, and have avoided demonizing everyone but middle-aged, straight, white men as the 'pubs have done.  I'll be happy to run against them on our respective records, issue-by-issue.

        "The test of our progress is not whether we add to the abundance of those who have much. It is whether we provide enough to those who have little. " --Franklin D. Roosevelt

        by jg6544 on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:23:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Attacking GOP policies will only work in areas (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      where we do not run GOP lite candidates, and those are exactly the places where we are weakest and need some really good ideas.

      That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

      by enhydra lutris on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 02:10:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It seems that by the GOP continuing to focus ... (0+ / 0-)

    ... on the extremist base that turns out to vote (as per Rovian philosophy), they risk missing the forest for that increasingly dwindling grove of trees, thus potentially finding themselves on the losing end of a good many general elections.

    And I couldn't be happier.  :-)

  •  Depends upon the traction of the NSA scandal (0+ / 0-)

    and the extent to which it is branded a "Democrat" thing. ('cause it surely isn't "democratic")

    Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
    I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
    —Spike Milligan

    by polecat on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:39:50 PM PDT

    •  At this point it's not on the radar (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      StellaRay, artmartin

      for most people.  They believe it's legal and following guidelines.  Our bubble disconnects us from Main Street.

      Any effort to make Snowden heroic will backfire and NSA joins Benghazi, AP, and IRS in downtown Apathyville.  

      Too bad, it might actually be a good time to push to repeal the Patriot Act and reduce our spending on false security.

      I'm not looking for a love that will lift me up and carry me away. A love that will stroll alongside and make a few amusing comments will suffice.

      by I love OCD on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:01:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Outside of DailyKOs, the NSA thing has 0 traction (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      StellaRay, TheLizardKing, artmartin

      Nobody cares. Nobody is talking about it. It's abstract. People shrug their shoulders and go, "This has been going on forever." The only people I know who care think all politicians, party and branches of government are equally responsible.

      Just because it is a bizarre obsession here than is pushing everything else to the sidelines doesn't mean that's how it is in real life. It's distant from people's lives, compared to jobs and the economy.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

      by anastasia p on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:12:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The republicans (0+ / 0-)

      are between a rock and a hard place regarding the NSA scandal. If they scream at Obama about the NSA revelations, they look like defense wussies to their base and the rest of their party who will fight the repeal of the Patriot Act as hard as they're fighting for the repeal of Obamacare. In fact, I'm willing to bet the republicans, are feeling mighty frustrated about not being able to ramp this thing up against Obama.

      This idea that the NSA revelations are going to hurt Democrats in the mid terms remains to be seen, but at present, I'd bet against it.

      "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

      by StellaRay on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:46:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Elections work this way, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    I love OCD

    Whoever gets more votes, wins. EVERYTHING we do from now until the election should be directed into one thing. Getting Voters to the polls. When we show up, we win. When we stay home, THEY do.

    Simple principle. the strategies and tactics needed to achive this are multifold and complex.

    Fight off the Republican't war on voters by early [like NOW] registration drives.

    Turn the heat up on the current crop of elected Dems to get them to do things that are worthy of their party affiliation.

    GET LOCAL and get into it. Get OTHERS into it.

    GOTV starts yesterday and NEVER stops. Can we get something on the NRN calendar for Detroit about energizing locally? Can we get a forum here started now for that?

    "if we cannot make our communities safer with the Congress we have now, we will use every means available to make sure we have a different Congress,.. To do nothing while others are in danger is not the American way." - Gabby Giffords

    by daddybunny on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:40:24 PM PDT

  •  It's critical for Democrats to show (0+ / 0-)

    the public who these Republicans really are, how crazy and out-of-touch they are. Preferably on in their own words, on videotape. Scratch the surface, and they are ALL Todd Akin!

  •  From your lips to the ears of the Divine (0+ / 0-)

    Can it be done? To start with, it requires good candidates, sincere candidates, people who can both motivate potential voters and provide minimal targeting for the inevitable barrage of attack ads.

    It's a narrow path to tread, but not an impossible one.

    "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

    by Australian2 on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:45:16 PM PDT

  •  donations to state party organization vs (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    allensl

    to specific candidates?  how important is it to help fund state party organizations?

    i was always pretty critical of the AK dem party, believing they: 1. many times didn't give funds to races they considered a lost cause but turned out competitive due to unforeseen circumstances; and 2. didn't try very hard to make sure that there was a quality D candidate in each and every district with a seat up for grabs.  [kind of a microcosm of the same debate the Ds have with themselves nationally, i.e. smart targeting vs 50 state strategy.]

    but i'm thinking of donating for the '14 cycle because the AK GOP is in total chaos.  the tea party has taken control in a coup and their fundraising has dried up.  so it seems like an opportunity... for getting back the whole AK legislature, or at least the AK senate.  not that there's actually a chance to unseat don young... ;

    •  Here you go (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      greenomanic, brunoboy

      I've made up alist of 15 congressional candidates and incumbents who I believe represent the biggest return on investment in terms of moving the goal posts to the left. They're not all perfectly liberal (though some are), but that's the world we live in.

      As for state politics, I hesitate to give you a suggestion in Alaska because I know nothing about which candidates are viable or the political geography of the districts, but at the very least you might consider donating to the gubernatorial nominee and maybe the state party if you don't think you have a feel on which legislative Democrats need it most. They'll have access to a lot more data on races than you or I would, which is less of an issue the higher up on the ballot you go. The flip side is of course as you say; they don't always make perfect decisions... However I wouldn't put much hope into the AK Dem party as I don't here in NC due to gerrymandering.

      •  thanks (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        helpful to hear that perspective.  there's so much clamoring for donations, and we all want to be careful with our limited resources and direct them to the best potential outcomes.

        •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

          the only reason I feel comfortable donating to candidates, let alone advocating for donating to them, is because I feel like I have a very good understanding of who can win and who can't and who represents the biggest improvement over who else. And that's because elections prognosticating is going to be my career.

          I feel like you'd need money to burn to just cut $500 checks at will, but then then I see the DCCC spending $2 million on Mike McIntyre to win narrowly when more liberal candidates fell heartbreakingly close and I couldn't in good conscience say donate to them while at the same time I understand why they do it.

          That's why it's much easier with executive candidates, it's really just all or nothing there and the veto pen wields enormous power.

      •  I clicked on your link and read your diary (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        (I missed it the first time because I was traveling to NN)

        Thank you for putting Pete Aguilar on your list.

        I'm in the despicable CA-31. It would be just like my stoopid district to finally (FINALLY) get rid of corrupt Republicans (Jerry Lewis for 100 years, now Gary Miller for 2), and replace them with Joe Effing Baca.

  •  I agree with the concept with one qualification (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Shahryar

    and that is that we can win the House if and only if we have Dr. Dean or similar running it. I am doubtful that we will win with the current crop running the congressional coordination.

    "Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do..... Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do." Grant

    by shigeru on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 12:50:01 PM PDT

    •  You want to elect Dean to Congress? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, artmartin

      Sheesh. Talk about living in the past. If you mean running the DNC, gives it up already. Dean had nothing to do with why we lost Ohio in 2010 — and he could not have won it for us. It's much more ground level than that.

      One of the worst habits some people here have is elevating certain people to be saviors and super-heroes. If Dean had been running the DNC in 2010, the results would have been similar.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

      by anastasia p on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:14:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Or someone similar. Or someone similar (0+ / 0-)

        Or someone similar. Dean was not on Team Rahm, so he had nothing to do with 2010. He did have a lot to do with successes in 2006 or 2008. Or someone similar-you folks really need to learn how to read!

        IMAO we need someone focused on his all states in play strategy. And I really don't care about Ohio in 2010. There was enough disaster in 2010 in many states to spread the blame.

        "Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do..... Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do." Grant

        by shigeru on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:32:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  A lot of people here can't grasp (0+ / 0-)

        that being the chair of an out-of-power DNC or RNC is a completely different job than being chair of an in-power party. The former is an independent position. The latter is an arm of the White House.

  •  Thank you, Markos (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChurchofBruce, doroma, artmartin, brunoboy

    For refocusing DK on the PRIZE - not the noise. There is absolutely no reason why we shouldn't be slapping ourselves silly for concentrating on anything other than a progressive-lead Democratic majority come 2015.

  •  I hope you're right, but after Snowdon? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mr Robert

    I just don't see it. I expect it to damage Obama and the party steadily for months and months to come.

    "Don't be defeatist, dear. It's very middle class." - Violet Crawley

    by nightsweat on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:00:22 PM PDT

  •  good news. The Dems need to start explaining the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    doroma

    benefits of Obamacare, and the economy turnaround under Obama for starters.

  •  I'm sorry but it just is not in reach (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mr Robert, politicalmetrics

    it's incredibly unlikely we see a wave big enough to flip the house and even if we do, our majority will be made on the backs of people like Mike McIntyre and Jim Matheson who would get run out of town on a rail if they voted for anything remotely liberal. Gerrymandering in the House is just so horrendously bad and we have very few legitimate pick up opportunities, let alone ones for liberal candidates.

    There is one surefire way we can retake the house, but it will take two cycles and it's quite freakin' simple: run independent redistricting ballot initiatives in Arkansas, Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, and Ohio. Non-partisan maps there would have given us 10-13 more seats on top of the ones we already won last year and could still yield a similar number. Then it's just a matter of picking off a few utter morons like Mike "I hate immigrants" Coffman and boom, you have a moderate majority.

    That's without a wave. Otherwise you need a huge one and we're talking D+8 to D+9 for us to win the current house with anything close to a working majority. Before someone says immigration reform failing will kill the GOP with Hispanics I say and yeah? Those voters are either not citizens and can't vote, not registered to vote and won't without significant work on our part, but for the most part just aren't distributed in the key swing and light red districts we need to win the house. They're stuck in Dem vote sinks for at 30% in dark red Texas seats where it doesn't matter if we would get 100% of their votes.

    If we really want to retake the House we'll get off our asses and prod the hell out of the state parties and unions in those aforementioned states so that by the time Hillary Clinton wins in 2016 we'll have the House and a filibuster-reform majority in the senate.

    •  It is in reach - Remember, GOP have Reince Priebus (0+ / 0-)

      Reince Priebus is the one who is considered to be probably the worst RNC Chair in the party's history.  The strategy of the GOP's wins was at least partially credited to Michael Steele's tenure as RNC Chair from 2009-2010.  Steele's a smart guy, not an ideologue but a very good strategist.  Priebus on the other hand isn't bright at all and a swarming jerk at the same time.  That's not the kind of strategic thinker you want running the RNC.  It also doesn't help that the RNCC is run by Oregon's lone Republican Congressman, Greg Walden.  He's not a Tea Party Republican by any means but he's having to be more on the defensive than the offensive when idiots like Darrell Issa and Trent Franks open their mouths.

      I can name at least 25 House seats that Democrats narrowly lost in 2012.  Providing the same Democrats who ran in 2012 run in 2014 or just as strong (or even stronger Democrats) run in those districts in 2014, the Democratic Party can pick up more than the 17 required seats.

      Also, the gun control issue is something that can be used against the GOP hard in 2014.  

      http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...

      •  But that's just it (0+ / 0-)

        people don't vote on which moron is RNC chair, they just don't give a crap. Nor does it matter what Issa or Franks say because they aren't losing.

        What matters is that members like Frank LoBiondo, Pete King, and Tom Latham are unassailable in otherwise competitive to Dem leaning districts and we're forced to go after people like Scott Garrett if we want a strong majority.

        Gun control might matter in a few districts that are fairly suburban or have seen major acts of violence like CO-06, but those are few and far between. By and large most of the voters who are voting based on gun control are already voting for that particular party.

        There just really aren't 17, let alone 25 seats in play and many of those stronger candidates who lost narrowly in 2012 were like Kathy Hochul who just isn't going to run again or even come close if she did.

        •  There REALLY are more than 17 seats at play (0+ / 0-)

          Did you look at the link?  I count the following which Democrats lost in 2012 that could be competitive again in 2014.  Just because the democratic challengers might not run again doesn't mean Democrats can't get that same kind of similar voting percentage.  That's a bit naive.

          Colorado - 1
          California - 1
          Florida - 3
          Iowa - 2 (Christine Vilsack got 44% against Steve King)
          Illinois - 1
          Indiana - 2
          Kentucky - 1 (Ben Chandler lost narrowly in 2012)
          Michigan - 3
          Minnesota - 1 (not including Bachmann's district since she's not running for re-election and Jim Graves decided to wimp out and end his campaign)
          North Carolina - 2
          New Jersey - 1
          Nevada - 1
          New York - 4
          Ohio - 2
          Pennsylvania - 1
          South Carolina - 2
          Tennessee - 1
          Virginia - 1

          This equals 30 seats that can be competitive.  There may be other districts that could be at play but I don't see a reason why Democrats shouldn't have a problem winning the House back in 2014.  Keep in mind a great deal of these races I say will be competitive in 2014 have to do with growing demographics.  New York for example is becoming more blue.  However, this is still June 2013, not September 2014.

          Actually, it does matter what Issa and Franks are saying because quite frankly, it could bite them in the ass in 2014.  As someone who has covered the CA-49 district race in 2012 more closely than anyone on Kos, I can tell you that the Democratic challenger to Issa got 41% of the votes with no help from anyone outside of the district and a lot more people dislike than like him.

          Franks may very well suffer the same fate as Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock but that remains to be seen.  Already, there's a notable CA Republican Party leader who was forced to resign because of comments she made on rape.  I don't know the district Franks represents but I know already he's making an ass out of himself so he might have to be careful about 2014.  However, if it were October 2014 now, Franks would be toast.

          Well, actually, you're wrong on that people don't vote for the RNC Chair.  They actually do, if say you're talking about GOP insiders and influential leaders in the party from within the RNC.  The RNC Chair's responsibility, like the DNC Chair's responsibility, is to articulate strategy and outreach.  We're not talking about policy or issues.  Also, the same DNC Chair, Debbie Wasserman-Shultz, will be running things in 2013-2014 but she also has had better strategy and understanding of grassroots campaigning.  Priebus though is a lousy grassroots motivator and is really just becoming the gift that keeps on giving to the Democratic Party.  Every outreach effort Priebus is shot back at him.  This isn't something GOP operatives want to deal with, at least at this early of a stage in the campaign cycle.  Wasserman-Shultz hasn't had that experience as of yet in her second term as DNC Chair.  

        •  "Gun control might matter in a few districts" (0+ / 0-)
          Gun control might matter in a few districts that are fairly suburban or have seen major acts of violence like CO-06, but those are few and far between. By and large most of the voters who are voting based on gun control are already voting for that particular party.
          I wouldn't be so sure about that.  When you got Pat Toomey and Joe Manchin, a conservative Democratic Senator from one of the most anti-Obama states in the U.S. (West Virginia) talking gun control as far as background checks, this means the Newton massacre may have affected a lot more people than imagined.  Doesn't mean there aren't quite a lot of people who are still very gung-ho pro-gun, pro-NRA.
  •  PA-08 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    So, as I expected, PA-08, the district where I grew up, was on the list of Republican-incumbent battlegrounds.  In the 2006 Democratic wave, PA-08 elected Patrick Murphy (ousting Republican incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick) and then re-elected him by a hair in 2008.  However, in the Republican wave of 2010, Mike Fitzpatrick won back the seat in a rematch:  53.5% to 46.5%.  He managed to win by a larger margin (57 to 43) in 2012.  In part, this stemmed from the Republican gerrymander of the seat.  The Republicans in Harrisburg took out NE Philly from the district (giving it to Allyson Schwartz in PA-13) and gave PA-08 northern Montgomery County.  However, Obama and Romney were effectively tied in PA-08.  Fitzpatrick is a "moderate" insofar as one can call any Republican a moderate these days---in other words, not that moderate.  Fitzpatrick still managed to win a number of the townships/municipalities that Obama won and sometimes by large margins, too.  One thing that we can't forget is the strong influence of recruitment on the race.  I liked Kathy Boockvar, the Democratic candidate, but she didn't have very good name recognition.  As unfortunate as it may be, name recognition is huge.

    If I'm not mistaken, Fitzpatrick has said in the past that he plans to term-limit himself, and if he's true to his word, he'll retire in 2016.  If we have a strong presidential candidate that year (like an HRC), then that seat would be a ripe pick-up opportunity

  •  There are differences, we need a Democratic House (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PlinytheWelder, wmspringer

    I remember in 1999 a certain disillusionment with Bill Clinton, that led many people to think about 3rd parties. Al Gore was just another corporate stooge, he wasn't all that different than George W. Bush. Governor Bush was an idiot, but harmless, and not really that different from Gore in the 'important' ways. Gore was a sell-out, and people would rather have a vote that 'matters' by voting in Nader.

    Let's pretend that there's a universe where Al Gore is elected President in 2000, but decides to do everything exactly like George W. Bush, except for one thing; he nominates different Supreme Court justices.

    That one difference means things like Citizen United didn't happen.

    We need to pull the country left. We need to pull the Democratic party left. Letting Republicans win again on principle isn't the way to start this.

    Getting Democratic control of the House in 2014, aligned with a coherent, progressive agenda, is a much better start.

  •  There are a lot of factors in this of course. Two (0+ / 0-)

    key far us are:
    1. The definition of seniors is rapidly changing. I.e. the  conservative leaning "not so" Greatest and Silent (Cheney) generations are being pushed hard by the first of the boomers. The early boomers are some of the most reliable Democrats in history. The group is poised to become reliably democratic in the next few years.
    2. More uncertain is whether the younger cohorts will vote in larger numbers in the off years. History says contradictory things; one that they are now older and will likely vote more, but two the younger groups just don't show in off years.

    With all that however, the change in the demographics of the seniors may be enough to partially off-set the second item.
    Certainly if motivated by a dynamic coordinator both items can work for us.

    "Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do..... Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do." Grant

    by shigeru on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:11:29 PM PDT

    •  almost a baby boomer here..yes we are very (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      shigeru, Shrew in Shrewsbury

      reliable Democrats, as we were an activist generation.

      The biggest apathy lies with the 45-55 year olds.

      •  They had been quite repug for many cycles. (0+ / 0-)

        However, unfortunately for us, part of them are still Boomers (50-55 year olds). The under 50's are of course the smaller GenX. Which has shown a tendency to liberalize in recent years. Even our current Prez and also the founder of this site. (One of whom even supported Rep. Hyde). so there is hope.

        My point is that the Senior bracket is as subject to demographic change as any other bracket. Maybe more so as it is the only one in which people fall off one end!

        "Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do..... Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do." Grant

        by shigeru on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:50:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks kos (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    doroma

    nosotros no somos estúpidos

    by a2nite on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:12:35 PM PDT

  •  I'm not sure if there's a magic wand (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mr Robert

    that will bring Pres. Obama's strongest supporters - young people and African-Americans - to the polls in an off-year election. Historically, they've pretty much always been low-turnout. Maybe immigration reform (or the lack of it) will help.

    Suggestions are welcome.

    Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

    by milkbone on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 01:17:28 PM PDT

  •  the key is young people getting out and voting (0+ / 0-)

    that is why we lost in 2010. Voting by young poepl drpped. The House and Senate are just as important as the presidency, maybe even more as that is where the laws are made.

    Obama's policies and budget's could be resolved if Democrats took back the House... or even if moderate republican got elected. Question is ..are there anymore moderate republican?

    •  Climate change speech tomorrow. (0+ / 0-)

      Obama didn't take action on the top issues for young people before 2010. Tomorrow is a big climate change speech. If student loan interest rates are allowed to double that will give Democrats two good issues to campaign on.

  •  So it's best to pin Social Security attacks on GOP (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PlinytheWelder, StellaRay

    It's clear that the drive to cut Social Security is coming from Republicans and Obama only offered chained CPI as an attempt at compromise. Making it clear that it's the GOP who are determined to cut benefits will be crucial in the next election.

    I don't know what some people get out of trying to prove with speculative arguments that Obama secretly hates seniors and lusts for cutting benefits. I guess they want to feel vindicated about so many of those past speculations being proven wrong. But, helping Republicans to put the blame on Democrats helps no one except Republicans in the next election.

  •  So let's stop tearing down Democrats then (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kefauver

    Day after day of attacks on the President and Democratic leaders are wearing everyone thin.  Kos, we're infiltrated and they're tearing us apart and your weak trolling rules are the cause of this.  We're supposed to be about what your diary states not convincing voters and activists that the ENTIRE government is broken and what the hell is the use of working on it.

    Case in point.  I have more chance of being banned for this post than someone calling our President a traitor and a sellout.  Maybe the controversy sells advertising but you're playing a dangerous game here.

  •  House is within reach in 2014. Really. (0+ / 0-)

    And this mean more bills will be passed by the House which will go to the Senate to die regardless of which party controls that body.

    Remember 2009-11?

    WEDNESDAY, OCT 6, 2010 08:30 AM MST

    Senate sitting on 420 bills passed by House

    So what will have changed?

    The modern Democrat is one who promotes old GOP ideas and calls them progressive in comparison to new GOP ideas.

    by masswaster on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 02:41:54 PM PDT

  •  One point of contention (0+ / 0-)

    I don't think it was willful ignorance as to why Democrats got killed with seniors. Very few seniors brought the Obama wants to kill medicare line. I think once Republicans exempted those over 55 from austerity it allowed seniors to vote their prejudices, since they didn't have an economic horse in the race.

  •  actually no one cares about those threads (0+ / 0-)

    if all the serial flame warriors on dkos were in the same town they couldn't elect a dog catcher purely on numbers.

    kos doesn't have to purity troll - obviously he can if he wants. Ignore the trollers and keep on pushing.

    If you didn't like the news today, go out and make some of your own.

    by jgnyc on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 03:06:17 PM PDT

  •  CHARGE ! (0+ / 0-)

    I've been hoping to see this post. Keep pushing district by district. This won't be about Obama, it's about the big D Democratic Party, the party of not-crazy common sense solutions to the problems of American families ... etc ...

    If you didn't like the news today, go out and make some of your own.

    by jgnyc on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 03:07:41 PM PDT

  •  Dang... (0+ / 0-)

    "And yet new polling from Democracy Corps suggests that Republicans are so incompetent that they genuinely risk losing control of the House."

    Now that's incompetent!

  •  Is it in reach? Really? (0+ / 0-)

    With all the NSA scandals proving Obama is just Bush with friendlier packaging? With Pelosi cheerleading for them (the NSA)? Do they even deserve it?

    •  DKOS Does Not Represent the Real World. (0+ / 0-)

      My in-laws from Ohio all came to visit last weekend.

      No one mentioned the NSA stuff in conversations.

      I have yet to meet anyone or hang out with anyone in the last 2-3 weeks who has mentioned it.

      People in the real world are not as worked up about it as folks at DKOS.

      OFA is out to attack seniors, veterans, and the disabled. A DKOS Troll told me so.

      by kefauver on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 09:23:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  We don't need a 7-8 point margin (0+ / 0-)

    to recapture the house. People were saying similar things in 2006, that we needed to win by 10+ points nationally to retake the majority and we took it strongly with a 7-point margin. I think a 5-point margin would be sufficient for a bare majority.

  •  Just prior to the 2010 elections (0+ / 0-)

    Kos declared the GOP to be an irrelevant, regional party...it's too early for 2014 polls.

  •  If you claim you need to be motivated to vote you (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kefauver

    ..are part of the problem. If you see what has happen to the country after 2010 and still need to be motivated, then you really are sorry and should not be taken seriously.

    The politicians may be bought, and the system corrupt, but it is our duty to fix these things.

    by sebastianguy99 on Mon Jun 24, 2013 at 10:39:13 PM PDT

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