That's not all. The president's party has averaged a loss of 26 seats in the House in the sixth year of his term since WWII, and of course, Democratic base groups are far less likely to turn out in an off-year election. So while conventional wisdom can be misguided, in this case, it's the safe bet for next year's elections.
And yet new polling from Democracy Corps suggests that Republicans are so incompetent that they genuinely risk losing control of the House.
In the polling, which featured an electorate shaped like 2010 (to give Dems a worst-case scenario), people prefer the Democratic Party over the teabaggers ... in Republican-held seats:
In seats held by Republicans, almost half rate the Republican Congress and Tea Party negatively. The Democratic Party enjoys a net 6-point favorability advantage over the Republican Party in these Republican seats.Obamacare is not hurting Democrats, even in GOP-held seats:
Republicans’ obsession with repeal is out-of-step with voters in even these Republican-held districts. In the most competitive seats, voters favor implementing the law over repealing it by 8 points.In 2010, seniors broke 59-38 for Republicans, buying into GOP claims that it was Democrats who wanted to kill Medicare. That GOP advantage appears to be gone:
Seniors broke heavily for Republicans in 2010, and they are a disproportionate voice in off-year elections. This survey shows the race tied with them, which would be a huge turnaround.The toplines:
The Republicans overall are only winning in these 49 seats by 47 to 42 percent – the same result that they achieved in the first poll in 2007 when Democrats ultimately gained 21 seats. Much more importantly, the race is dead even in the 24 seats that form the top tier (42 to 43 percent).And even more broadly speaking, look at the chart at the top of the page. a five-point lead is definitely getting close to that magical 7-8-point mark we need for the majority. Hilariously, Rasmussen showed a 5-point Democratic edge (43-38) in both February and March, at which point he magically stopped polling the congressional generic ballot. I wonder why ...
It's still an uphill fight, no doubt. But we're in the game, and victory is within reach.