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1.  I think there are votes in the H to pass a fix, but Boehner might punt using Hastert rule, and refuse to bring it up without majority support in Republican caucus

2.  Potentially this decision is VERY DANGEROUS for the Republican party, because of the fact that Section 5 is still there.  It is this I want to briefly explore

Congress needs to draw a new map of which states/jurisdictions would be covered.  Some that were previously covered might not be, while others previously not covered would be.

And here is where the rubber could meet the road -  the Hispanic vote.  Republican refusal to even consider fixing Section 4 could be used to attack them as being anti-Hispanic, with real backlash potential.

Considering the current demographic patterns, which Markos and others have noted, this plays in a number of key states -

TX, CO, NV, AZ and NM for starters.   Were the Republicans to lose all of those because of the Hispanic vote they would have no path to 270 electoral votes.

Thus there may be pressure on House Republicans from those states to do something about Section 4 to try to defuse a possible backlash.

In other words, even given the current makeup of the House, this decision is not as horrible as it could have been.  We will have to see how it plays out over the next 3 years or so.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (11+ / 0-)

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 07:32:51 AM PDT

  •  Or just don't pass a map at all (9+ / 0-)

    and apply it to the entire country. THAT would be hard to fight.

    Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

    by blue aardvark on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 07:35:00 AM PDT

    •  Based on a quick glance at the majority opinion (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue aardvark

      I think this Court would strike that down even faster, because they believe that the Constitution doesn't normally grant Congress the power to regulate elections. (That bit about guaranteeing the states a Republican form of government seems to be getting a very modern reading from the majority.)

      Let us all have the strength to see the humanity in our enemies, and the courage to let them see the humanity in ourselves.

      by Nowhere Man on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 08:04:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  There's a near-zero chance (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CwV, rigcath, Stude Dude, MKinTN

    that Boehner & McConnell will allow a new map to be drawn that doesn't favor and in any way hurts the GOP. What I do fear is that there's a more than zero chance that enough Dems will be willing to vote for a map that does favor the GOP, so long as it favors them personally, in their state or district.

    I'm not at all sanguine about this ruling.

    "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

    by kovie on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 07:40:34 AM PDT

  •  Congress doesn't “need” to pass anything. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CwV

    People seem to be hopeful that this could mean Section 5 applies everywhere, but I rather doubt it.

    Code Monkey like freedom / Code Monkey like peace and justice too
    Code Monkey very nerdy man / With big warm fuzzy bleeding heart
    Code Monkey like you!

    Formerly known as Jyrinx.

    by Code Monkey on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 07:40:37 AM PDT

  •  Drawing up a new map is very easy (6+ / 0-)

    The entire country should be subject to preclearance.
    Anyone who thinks voter suppression is something that only goes on in the South hasn't been paying attention the last 10 years.

  •  Bonehead can't control his own caucus; (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CwV, Stude Dude, Sylv

    He won't do anything that makes the evil racist TBAGS angry.

    nosotros no somos estúpidos

    by a2nite on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 07:48:26 AM PDT

    •  maybe, maybe not (5+ / 0-)

      there are enough Rs who understand the demographic math, some of whom want to defuse the bomb before it goes off against them.  He might have pressure from senior members of his caucus to let it come to vote

      I suspect it will 1st have to pass Senate

      if it does, and say with 70 votes, it would then be very hard for Boehner not to let it come up for a vote

      I think we still do not know how this could play out

      as far as requiring preclearance for entire country?  Unless you want to add several judges to the DC District Court or double the size of the Civil Rights division of the Justice department, there simply would not be the manpower to address that.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 08:01:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  While I agree that preclearance should be (0+ / 0-)

    nationwide, I also concur with the general sentiment that the current Supreme Court probably wouldn't let that stand either.  

    I wouldn't bet on establishment Democrats being able to see political opportunities here.  They have so lost touch with the people they supposedly represent that they can't even perceive big issues staring them in the face.

    Shirley Chisholm was right. Our Republic is in deep trouble.

    by Big River Bandido on Tue Jun 25, 2013 at 06:50:33 PM PDT

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