The distance from Europe to Tokyo by sea through an ice free Arctic Ocean is about 6,500 nautical miles. Through the Suez Canal, the distance is about 12,200 nautical miles. Through the Panama Canal, the distance is about 13,000 nautical miles. Around Africa, the distance is about 15,000 nautical miles. Those distances are approximate, worked out using the ruler tool on Google Earth. The proportional relationships of the numbers are more precise. Any route between Europe and Asia through the Arctic is much, much shorter than any other sea route. Hence, a terrific buzz is arising about a future for shipping through the Arctic.
Thus a delicious irony presents itself. Transoceanic shipping is a huge contributor of greenhouse gasses yet, it is only Global Warming that will open the Arctic to shipping so that shortened sea routes will moderate the carbon footprint of transoceanic shipping.
Here is what Oceana, an NGO focused on ocean conservation, observed:
If global shipping were a country, it would be the sixth largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions.
Only the United States, China, Russia, India and Japan emit more carbon dioxide than the world’s shipping fleet. Nevertheless, carbon dioxide emissions from ocean-going vessels are currently unregulated.
If Arctic sea lanes come into regular use, an inevitable effect will be to reduce the average distance that goods are transported by sea, with a
correlating reduction in the associated carbon footprint.
Oceanic shipping is an area with a disproportionate carbon footprint ripe for reduction. As the aforesaid NGO also remarked:
Over 90 percent of world trade is carried across the world’s oceans by some 90,000 marine vessels, and as a result, the shipping industry is responsible for a significant proportion of the global climate change problem. More than three percent of global carbon dioxide emissions can be attributed to ocean-going ships.
Almost anything that reduces oceanic shipping's carbon footprint should be welcome. But the loss of the planetary climate benefits of Arctic ice is a terrible price to pay for shortened sea lanes.
Instead, I would like to see sensible international regulation promoting efficiency of global maritime fleets, maybe with increasing standards sort of like the CAFE standards for US autos. Sensible international regulation? Hah. Well, I can dream.