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9:51 AM PT: NYC Comptroller: Oy vey. At the last possible minute, former Gov. Eliot Spitzer (who, as everyone knows, resigned in disgrace) has decided to enter the Democratic primary for New York City comptroller. The seat is open (John Liu is running for mayor), and the only major candidate in the race, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, immediately lashed out at Spitzer and accused him of trying to "buy personal redemption with his family fortune."

There are a million things one can say about this bizarre development, but I'll confine myself to just one. When Spitzer's infamous scandal broke, he didn't leave office merely because he had solicited prostitutes. He did so because he had governed awfully and arrogantly for his entire first year in office and alienated almost every friend he had. A more popular politician who hadn't cut himself off from his supporters so badly could very well have survived that disaster.

But Spitzer succeeded in destroying his own standing with the public even before anyone had heard the name Ashley Dupré, and no one wanted help him when he stumbled. So to me, the question is whether Spitzer has learned his lesson from his time as governor—what his former mentor and confidante Lloyd Constantine termed the "plague year"—and whether he's a truly humbled and changed man. I'd like to say we'll see soon enough, but with this kind of thing, we may never really know.

(Disclosure: I worked on Spitzer's 1994 and 1998 campaigns for attorney general, and for the attorney general's office during his first term.)

10:29 AM PT: AZ-01: Freshman state Rep. Adam Kwasman, whose name initially surfaced in May, just became the first Republican to formally announce a challenge to Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick next year. Kwasman definitely has shortcomings as a candidate (not least the fact that he hails from a distant suburban outpost at the far end of this massive rural district), but Mitt Romney carried this seat 50-48, which means Kirkpatrick will have a serious race no matter what.

10:49 AM PT: IA-01: Second-term state Rep. Anesa Kajtazovic, whose name had recently surfaced as a potential candidate for Iowa's open 1st Congressional District, announced over the weekend that she's forming an exploratory committee to look at the contest. Kajtazovic is only 26, but she has an unusual life story: She fled with her family from a refugee camp in Bosnia at the age of 10, and then became the youngest woman elected to the Iowa state House three years ago. (She also says she's the only Bosnian-American elected official in the entire country.)

If Kajtazovic does get in, she'd be joining two more experienced pols in the primary, former state House Speaker Pat Murphy and Cedar Rapids City Councilwoman Monica Vernon. Others may also get into the race in this light blue district in the northeastern part of the state.

11:43 AM PT: TX-Gov: At long last, we finally have our answer: Rick Perry will not seek a fourth full term as governor of Texas, though he did seem to hold open the possibility of another presidential run in 2016. As far as next year is concerned, though, Perry's move clears the way for state Attorney General Greg Abbott to make his own widely expected gubernatorial bid, without the messiness of a GOP primary. And with a Republican ticket headed by Abbott, who certainly has his flaws but lacks Perry's notorious personal baggage, longshot Democratic hopes of recapturing the governor's mansion likely just got longer.

12:32 PM PT: IA-03: It seems like Democrats have finally gotten their woman—again. Former state Sen. Staci Appel has filed paperwork to create a campaign committee with the FEC, just a few months after she announced that she would not run against GOP Rep. Tom Latham. In between, though, she met with the DCCC in Washington, so evidently, recruiters convinced her to change her mind. On paper, this seat looks like it should be very competitive for Democrats, seeing as Barack Obama carried it by a 51-47 margin last year. But Latham's political skills are considerable, and he ran almost 13 net points ahead of Mitt Romney while defeating fellow incumbent Leonard Boswell, so Appel will have her work cut out for her.

12:48 PM PT: IA-Sen: Emily Cahn astutely takes notice a little-known wrinkle in the Iowa GOP's nomination process: If no candidate takes 35 percent in primary for Senate, Republicans will hold a convention to choose their standard-bearer. In the wake of E.W. Jackson's selection as the party's lieutenant governor nominee in Virginia, that word—"convention"—ought to strike fear into the hearts of GOP operatives anywhere. And with four contenders already in the field, as well as two more likely to join, Iowa could indeed wind up seeing its first such convention since 2002, when none other than Steve King prevailed over a crowded field in what was then the state's 5th Congressional District.

There are a number of details here that make Cahn's piece worth reading in full. For one, the lead up to the statewide convention involves a multi-step ordeal similar to the gantlet presidential candidates run through—and it takes place during the first half of next year, more or less simultaneously with the primary, which is on June 3. (The convention is scheduled for June 14.) What's more, Paulists now control the state GOP apparatus; that could benefit former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker in particular, and it certainly doesn't make it more likely that Republicans will pick a palatable candidate. Somewhere, Bruce Braley is smiling to himself.

1:04 PM PT: IL-17: Ex-Rep. Bobby Schilling, who said last month that he was "leaning toward" a comeback bid, has officially launched his campaign for a rematch against freshman Democrat Cheri Bustos. Schilling is hoping that midterm turnout will boost his chances in this 58-41 Obama district, but there's almost no way he'll see a return to kind of electorate that powered him to an improbable victory in 2010.

1:35 PM PT: Maps: Here's a great map of how that most important of words, beer, is spoken throughout Europe. There are pretty much four main linguistic regions: beer (western/central Europe, Greece, Black Sea); ale (Scandinavia, Baltics); pivo (Russia, eastern Europe, Balkans), and cerveza (Iberian peninsula). There are are a few oddballs (like Hungary, where it's called sör), but the most divided area is the British Isles, where beer and ale compete with four other options, like the Welsh "cwrw." But at the end of the day, we're all drinking delicious suds.

1:46 PM PT: WY-Sen: If you've been following this story (say, in the pages of the Daily Digest), there isn't a whole lot that's newsy in this New York Times piece on the possibility that Liz Cheney might run against Sen. Mike Enzi in next year's GOP primary. It does sound, though, like Cheney stepping up her efforts to raise her profile, touring around the state and appearing at public events whenever she can, sometimes with daddy Dick at her side.

But nearly all of the establishment-type Republicans quoted in the article seem unhappy at the prospect of a Cheney challenge, which seems predicated on the notion that Enzi simply isn't an obstructionist firebreather in the classic tea party mold. One such complainer is former Sen. Alan Simpson, who seems to understand the GOP about as well as he understands the budget deficit. Simpson says he thinks Enzi's only vulnerable "if there's a weird group of Republicans who think compromise is akin to communism." I'm not sure what mountain top Simpson's been living on for the past few years, but that "weird group of Republicans" is actually called "the Republican Party."

2:31 PM PT: NC Redistricting: A panel of three state-level judges has upheld the legislative and congressional maps passed by North Carolina Republicans in 2011, though an appeal to the state supreme court seems likely. (A PDF of the full decision is available here.) I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope for a better outcome, though, seeing as the state high court features four Republican appointees versus just three Democrats. But given the federal constitutional issues at stake here, it's also possible that this case could ultimately wind up at the U.S. Supreme Court. Then again, I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope there, either.

2:36 PM PT: P.S. Xenocrypt does some deep digging and discovers that every single comptroller for the last 60 years has at some point tried to run for higher office. The track record is poor: Only two of eight have succeeded, and I use the word "succeeded" very lightly, as I wouldn't want to be either Abe Beame or Alan Hevesi.

2:42 PM PT: CO-Sen: Republicans finally have a Senate candidate in Colorado: State Sen. Randy Baumgardner says he'll formally launch a challenge to Sen. Mark Udall on Friday. I highly suggest you click through to check out his extraordinary 'stache.

2:59 PM PT: FL-26: Miami-Dade School Board member Carlos Curbelo says he'll formally announce a bid against freshman Rep. Joe Garcia on Tuesday, which would likely make him the most serious Republican to enter the race to date. (He's been conducting polls and assembling a finance team.) Former Miami-Dade Commission Chairman Joe Martinez claimed he'd run a long time ago, but he still hasn't filed paperwork (though he has managed to release a cologne called, amazingly enough, "The Commissioner"). Cutler Bay Mayor Ed MacDougall did actually launch his campaign back in May, but he raised just $40,000 in his first month on the trail.

3:06 PM PT: ME-02: Toward the end of a piece on the collapse of the Maine Republican Party (their chair and vice chair both just resigned, only seven months into the job) comes confirmation from former state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin that he's looking at a possible run for Congress next year. Poliquin says he's also been asked to take over the state party, but either way, it definitely sounds like he's not considering a primary challenge to Sen. Susan Collins, which sadly always seemed like the slimmest of hopes to begin with.

3:28 PM PT: OH Ballot: It looks like FreedomOhio is forging ahead with plans to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot next year that would overturn a 2004 amendment that banned same-sex marriage in the state. They also secured the supported of a high-profile Republican on Monday, former state AG Jim Petro. But according to Nate Silver's projections, a majority of Ohioans may not be ready to support marriage equality by 2014.

What's more, FreedomOhio appeared to jump the gun last month, announcing that a coalition of national marriage groups stood ready to assist the campaign, only to have those same organizations issue a statement distancing themselves from the effort. (An official from the Human Rights Campaign said FreedomOhio's Ian James "must have attended a different meeting than the rest of us.") So it's not clear if everyone's reconciled, or if FreedomOhio is going it alone. Either way, they still have a high initial hurdle to clear: They need to submit over 385,000 valid signatures by July of next year.

3:39 PM PT: NJ-Sen: Not that it's any surprise, but the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg's family is most definitely not backing Newark Mayor Cory Booker in his bid to replace their patriarch. Rather, four of Lautenberg's children, as well as their stepmother, Bonnie, are endorsing Rep. Frank Pallone in the special Democratic primary next month. (Lautenberg's son Josh says his dad told him he "would be honored" to have Pallone succeed him.) Booker, of course, helped nudge Lautenberg toward the exits earlier this year, though much of the New Jersey Democratic establishment was not pleased with Booker's approach.

3:44 PM PT: IL-Gov: Conservative pollster We Ask America has a new poll of the GOP gubernatorial primary, but the field is pretty divided. Treasurer Dan Rutherford in first at 22 percent, state Sen. Bill Brady takes 18 percent, venture capitalist Bruce Rauner is at 12, and state Sen. Kirk Dillard sits at 11, with 38 percent undecided.

4:18 PM PT: MA-06: Iraq vet Seth Moulton, who considered running in MA-06 as an independent last year, says he'll challenge Rep. John Tierney in the Democratic primary this time. Tierney, of course, only narrowly escaped with his political life in 2012, after getting relentlessly hounded over his wife's tax evasion conviction, even though there was never any evidence linking him to her misdeeds.

Meanwhile, Moulton, a Marine, calls himself "fairly centrist," which is not usually a recipe for winning a Democratic primary. (See Stephen Lynch's failed bid for Senate earlier this year.) But Tierney's baggage, fairly or not, throws a wrench into the standard calculus, because some Democrats might conclude they're better off with a less damaged alternative in a general election, even if he's less progressive. It's been a long time since an incumbent lost a primary in Massachusetts—1992, in fact, when Marty Meehan beat Chet Atkins. But as analyst Peter Ubertaccio points out, Atkins, much like Tierney, barely survived his 1990 re-election campaign, so that may augur for an upset.

4:49 PM PT: 2Q Fundraising:

FL-18: Rep. Patrick Murphy (D): $520K raised, $1 mil cash-on-hand

IL-Gov: Bruce Rauner (R): $915K raised (apparently no self-funding)

IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R): $450K raised, $700K cash-on-hand

MA-05: Carl Sciortino (D): $200K raised

MI-Sen: Rep. Gary Peters (D): $1 mil raised, $1.8 mil cash-on-hand

NJ-Gov (May 24 to June 24): Gov. Chris Christie (R): $372K raised; Barbara Buono (D): $642K raised

PA-08: Kevin Strouse (D): $254K raised, $218K cash-on-hand

PA-13: Valerie Arkoosh (D): $285K raised

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 06:00:14 AM PDT

  •  AZ-1: Adam Kwasman to challenge Kirkpatrick (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terjeanderson, Gygaxian

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    What's the situation like here? I don't know enough about this district or this race, but I feel like Kirkpatrick should be favored to win in 2014 against any Republican, although she'll probably have a tough fight.

    Also, if I am not mistaken, didn't this district get significantly bluer thanks to independent redistricting?

    •  Not significantly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      But it did get bluer. The problem is that it is still moderately at R+4 (which is slightly redder than it was in 04/08 PVI, given trend in 2012, but it was also bluer in 2012 than it was in 2008 R+5 to R+3... so take that as indicators of a lack of trend overall).

      Kwasman is a very strong recruit in my opinion, simply due to his status as an elected official. It starts out as a pure tossup with perhaps a hint of Democratic edge given incumbency, but could very well fade away over time and get out of reach for Kirkpatrick given the districts demographics and the tendencies of minority voters (in this case both Hispanics and Native American) to drop off during midterms (the same problem that she had in 2010 where she lost by double digits against the combined Republican and Libertarian vote shares*).

      *Yes, this probably exaggerates it a bit, but even if you assume that some libertarian voters would have stayed home and some would have gone to the Democrat in the absence of the libertarian candidate I still believe that she would have lost by double digits. She only got 43.7% in 2010.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:27:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd say AZ-01 got significantly bluer (12+ / 0-)

        it went from McCain-Obama 54-44 to 51-48 after redistricting.  That's a pretty significant shift.  And then Obama actually brought the margin down to 50.4-47.9 last year against Romney.

        Now, Arizona is a strange state because it's behaved almost identically from 2004 to 2008 to 2012.  So the PVI fluctuates strongly from election to election because of the national numbers, and this makes analysis of the state's trends hard, especially when you factor in McCain's home-state boost in 2008.  In any case, what we do know is AZ-01 got 7 points bluer following redistricting and that alone is probably why Kirkpatrick is in Congress again.

        Also, Kirkpatrick defeated an Arizona state senator to win last year.  I think she's in better shape than that.  As for 2010, it was a bloodbath up and down the ballot...we almost lost a few incumbents in 60% Obama districts.  So I don't ding anyone for their performance that year.

      •  lean D (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, JBraden

        Kirkpatrick lost by just 6% in 2010 which was as good a year as the GOP is ever going to have. That was in the old version of the district, which was 7 points redder (margin, not PVI) than the new one. She likely would have held the new version even in 2010. How is Kwasman any better than Paton, anyway?

        I think it's always a mistake to assume that Libertarian votes are effectively GOP votes. I think the vast majority are generic protest votes. I suspect that with no Libertarian on the ballot, that vote would maybe break 1/3 for the GOP, 1/6 for the Dem, and 1/2 would leave it blank. Even that is probably generous to the GOP.

        In any case, the Libertarian got 6% of the vote in both 2010 and 2012 and there will probably be one on the ballot again in 2014, so that shouldn't hurt Kirkpatrick.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:52:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Kwasman has weaknesses (13+ / 0-)

      Any race in a district this swingy should not be taken lightly. Kirkpatrick will always have to fight for the seat.

      But there are lots of reasons to question whether Kwasman is the strongest potential nominee here.

      Geographically, he is poorly located. He comes from the far southern section of the district, representing a suburb of Tucson that was only tacked onto the district in the last redistricting. It is far from the media and population centres of the district. (Before running for legislature, he managed a Congressional campaign -for crazed Jesse Kelly, who ran against Gabby Giffords - in a Tucson-based district.) The 1st district overall is very different turf from his home base Tucson suburban territory.... whether he is prepared for the political realities of a territory that includes huge reservations, the yuppie New Age Sedona, the college town of Flagstaff, old mining towns, and similar diverse territory.

      He is heavily identified with the tea party and far right elements in the state. He plays to them by giving fiery speeches denouncing taking extreme positions, and peppers his language with lots of Paul-esque references to "Liberty". He used to work at the Cato institute in DC. While these things are not necessarily politically lethal in Arizona, they give Democrats some grounds to critique. (And given some of the internal AZ Republican divisions - for example over Brewer's Medicaid stance - it doesn't necessarily help him consolidate his base).

      His age. Sometimes young candidates can come off as offering a fresh voice and new energy. But Kwasman (who is 31), from what I've seen and heard, often grates people the wrong way. To many he looks like the classic "young man in a hurry" who has trouble hiding his own ambitions, has an overly high opinion of himself and what he has accomplished, and ends up looking more like a pompous self-important socially awkward policy wonk than a guy in touch with real people. He was only elected to the legislature in 2012, and almost immediately began positioning himself for a Congressional run. That sort of thing often turns people off.

      I don't want to under-estimate him - Kirkpatrick is always going to be vulnerable. But there is lots about him that may mean he isn't the strongest candidate Republicans could run.

      My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

      by terjeanderson on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:24:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Eliot Spitzer running for NYC Comptroller (7+ / 0-)


    At this point I kinda hope both he and Weiner win just to shove it in the faces of the likes of Breitbart and other Republicans who were complicit in their falls. I mean if Mark fucking Sanford can flee the country on Father's Day and lie about it and still qualify for federal office ("family values" lol) then both Spitzer and Weiner certainly qualify for city office.

    I only wish it was as easy to make Spitzer jokes as it is to make Weiner jokes.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11. Rush Holt for Senate!

    by interstate73 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 06:58:27 AM PDT

    •  Don't agree... (11+ / 0-)

      I don't honestly see how you can blame the Republicans for either Spitzer or Weiner - they both need to share the vast majority of the blame for what happened to them.

      See David's comment above about Spitzer. My own take: Spitzer was a great AG, but a disaster as a governor, although there was still time to right that ship before he resigned. But honestly, given Spitzer's aggressiveness as AG, it looked worse for him when it turned out he himself was breaking the law.

      I blame the Republicans for quite a bit, but not these guys.

    •  While I understand the sentiment... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      ...all politics is local.

      What you know of Anthony Weiner is that he was a great polemicist that would give Democratic religion on MSNBC.  In terms of NYC politics he is running to the right of most of the field.  I don't know if even Quinn is as supportive of Bloomberg's educational policies.

      Elliot Spitzer was pegged about right above.  Though perhaps it would be better to say he was a more liberal and more partisan Andrew Cuomo.  He got what he wanted by shoving it down peoples throats and made enemies left and right.  In particular there was some bizarre stuff he was pulling with the Republicans involving state troopers and spying.  But like Cuomo he was more respected than loved.  And the corollary to Machiavelli's "it's better to be feared than loved" is that if you are loathed you'll be lynched the first time you're seen as weak.  And virtually the entire government and entire press corp literally danced on his grave from the start.  Even lionizing the hapless Paterson who turned into his own disaster.

      He'd actually be a good comptroller.  The problem is Scott Stringer literally has the support of everyone.  In fact you could argue that he should've stayed in the mayor's race.  Liu is weakened by the whole fundraising scandal and it would not have necessarily been that hard for Scott to steal the liberal reform Democratic banner that Liu has been carrying by default.

      Stringer had the comptroller's race to himself because he was so strong, not because he was vulnerable.  Though you can't discount Spitzer in a down ballot race for an office that most voters don't know exists never mind know the candidates in.  Of course given low turnout and the activist heavy nature of off year primaries that electorate will be more aware than a general the public.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 01:42:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nobody forced Spitzer to be a hypocritical douche (0+ / 0-)

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 02:27:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh dear (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PassionateJus

      Although this will be damn entertaining if Kristen Davis is actually the Libertarian nominee for this race. I would pay serious money to watch that debate.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 03:22:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd vote for Davis over Spitzer (0+ / 0-)

        If I lived in NY and my choices were Davis or Spitzer I'd vote for her.

        Even though I rarely vote Libertarian I do believe that prostitution should be legalized and, like drugs, dealt with as a health issue and not as a moral/ law enforcement issue  (I actually have a few friends who are high-end escorts and having it legalized would protect them). Spitzer built a career in part as a prosecutor going after prostitution rings. In my world that makes him a huge hypocrite.

        I almost always vote Democrat but a few years ago I voted Libertarian in the race for WA State Lt Governor. The incumbent is Brad Owen, an anti abortion Democrat who's biggest issue is trying to bust marijuana smokers. I wasn't ever going to vote for him.

      •  From Sex and the City??? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits

        Really?

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Tue Jul 09, 2013 at 08:19:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I agree with this qualification (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MetroGnome

      There are many Democrats who need to learn the lesson that they apparently failed to learn in the late 90s: a sex scandal, without more, should have no bearing on fitness for office.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 04:41:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What (0+ / 0-)

        should be is not a lesson to learn; it's a moral opinion.  And I firmly disagree with your opinion.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 05:39:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What other lesson could you possibly learn (0+ / 0-)

          from the Lewinsky "scandal"?

          I hate to pull the age card here, but I fear I must. I believe you are just a bit too young to remember that the moral fervor started with Clinton (and was sustained for some time) in the same way as it did recently for Weiner, Spitzer, and yes, Sanford.

          Sanford's scandal involved deep hypocrisy (as, to a lesser degree, did Spitzer's), but even the Republican managed to return to office. Clinton's popularity, of course, rebounded. It has stayed strong.

          Your "moral opinion" (which I "firmly disagree" with) is not the one that has been reflected at the ballot box.  

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 05:47:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No (0+ / 0-)
            a sex scandal, without more, should have no bearing on fitness for office.
            I agree that is has little to no bearing on the election results, but you can't state unilaterally that is should have no bearing.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 05:56:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  The Problem Is That There Is Something More (0+ / 0-)

        Hypocrisy.

        Spitzer made a name for himself in part by prosecuting prostitution rings; and not only just because he was following the law but because he was actually crusading against prostitution rings.

        At the same time he was seeing prostitutes.

        His downfall was not just a sex scandal.

  •  Seth Moulton challenging John Tierney in primary (5+ / 0-)

    MA-6

    Moulton, a 34-year-old Marblehead native, holds three degrees from Harvard and, since leaving the Marines, has worked as managing director of a Texas rail company and now leads a North Shore start-up aimed at combating obesity.
    http://www.bostonglobe.com/...
  •  NC Map News (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, ChadmanFL
    A THREE-JUDGE PANEL HAS RULED THE CONGRESSIONAL AND LEGISLATIVE DISTRICTS DRAWN BY REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS IN 2011 ARE LEGAL. DEMOCRATS AND OTHERS CHALLENGING THE DISTRICTS HAD CLAIMED THEY UNFAIRLY CARVED THE STATE USING RACE-BASED DATA. THE CASE WILL LIKELY BE APPEALED TO THE NORTH CAROLINA SUPREME COURT.

    21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

    by aggou on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:09:07 AM PDT

  •  Money down (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat, sapelcovits, DCCyclone

    Rick Perry will not seek re-election when he announces later today.

    That's my guess and I'm sticking too it.

    SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

    by trowaman on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:09:39 AM PDT

  •  Detroit Mayor (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, MetroGnome

    Duggan seems to have decided to run as a write-in candidate. I have no idea what his chances are now being both white and a write in candidate. Should be interesting to say the least.

    (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: J-Min's Stand Up

    by kman23 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:36:56 AM PDT

    •  I'm interested in how its legal (0+ / 0-)

      for him, since he's not qualified to be on the ballot because of his residency, to run as a write-in candidate.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:50:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah I have no idea (0+ / 0-)

        He can't run on the ballot because he's not a resident but he can write-in? There seems to be something really odd about that.

        Maybe residency status is for the official ballot? I have no idea why that'd be the case though.

        (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: MBLAQ's Smoky Girl

        by kman23 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:58:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  If write-ins are legal (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        terjeanderson, MetroGnome

        I don't see how you can restrict who the voter is allowed to write-in. Now, whether he can serve if he's elected is a different question, but perhaps he can correct the deficiency in his residency before he'd take office?

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:21:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's already corrected it (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, HoosierD42, Gpack3

          Or, rather, it had already been corrected on its own by the time it was challenged in court. All he had to do was continue living in his home.

          As I understand it, the city charter requires you to have lived in the city for one year prior to becoming a candidate. Duggan officially moved to the city of Detroit on April 16, 2012. The deadline to file petitions was May 14, 2013.

          If Duggan had filed anywhere from April 17 to May 14, 2013, he would've been fine. But instead he filed his petitions on April 2, 2013. Duggan claimed that the effective date of his candidacy was May 14, the deadline, and the court ruled that the date of his candidacy was April 2, which means he didn't live there long enough.

          I think it's dumb-- a functioning democratic process shouldn't be in the business of excluding candidates on technicalities. But it's also a self-inflicted electoral wound, and one he could easily have avoided by consulting a lawyer and filing a few weeks later.

          But regardless, Duggan's now been a resident for long enough that he's eligible to serve as mayor. If his write-in campaign succeeds and he gets at least second place, he'll appear on the ballot in the run-off (I think).

          I don't know if he'll be able to pull it off, but ballot access shouldn't be an issue anymore.

        •  I meant the latter, I guess I should have (0+ / 0-)

          worded it differently.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 02:46:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Resident (0+ / 0-)

        His problem wouldn't be residency, anymore.  And, his original problem was that he filed a few days too early.

    •  Given (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Given that he an Napolean were far and above the top two in polls (each trading a lead usually within the margin of error), all Duggan has to do is get second place to get his name on the general election ballot.  The conventional wisdom seems to say this will be impossible, but the third place guy was running less than 20%, and with Duggan by far having the greatest grass-roots support (Napolean has rounded up the usual suspects in the public sector unions), I don't see how Duggan doesn't pull of a second place showing even as a write-in.  

      Conventional widsom doesn't work in Detroit.  If you'd have told anyone a few months back that Duggan would have been disqualified in court and then on appeal, and wouldn't take it to the Supremes, they'd have called you crazy.  Detroit has very unpredictable (and depressing, often) municipal politics.  It's been my gut feeling since he entered the race, but Duggan seems like the guy that can just push through the bullsh%t that is typical Detroit politics.

  •  Cornell grad elected mayor of Varna, Bulgaria (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MrLiberal
    A graduate in international economic relations, and holders of diplomas from Cornell University in hotel financial management and hospitality management, his career in Varna has been mainly in the hospitality industry and includes having been general manager of Grand Hotel Varna in Varna.
    http://sofiaglobe.com/...
  •  IL-17: Schilling makes run official (8+ / 0-)

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    He's probably the best the GOP can get but given how blue this district is and his pretty wide margin of defeat last year I doubt Bustos is particularly intimidated.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 08:42:45 AM PDT

    •  Hard to see the GOP putting this one... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, terjeanderson

      Back on the map.

    •  Don't see Bustos getting lazy like Hare (0+ / 0-)

      I remember Sao Magnifico feeling down about her chances last year.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:26:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think Hare was lazy so much as (8+ / 0-)

        he was just a bad candidate (and the incredibly weak statewide ticket in 2010 didn't help). He got on the ballot in 2006 after Lane Evans withdrew, leaving the Republicans to contest the election with a retread candidate, then he was unopposed in 2008. 2010 was the first serious campaign he had to run.

        •  This brilliantly gerrymandered (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          version of the district is also substantially more Democratic than the previous one was.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 10:25:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And cleaner too, to boot. (0+ / 0-)

            No tentacle that goes through Springfield to Decatur like a kebab stick.  It loses Quincy (which Lane Evans liked, I think) and absorbs Rockford.

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:00:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Also, it scooped up Peoria (0+ / 0-)

              to Rep. Schock's chagrin.

              "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

              by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:04:57 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, Quincy is solid R (3+ / 0-)

              Which has always struck me as kind of odd, since basically every other Mississippi River city of any consequence is a blue outpost, probably thanks to the union jobs and relative diversity that came with riparian commerce. (Unless you consider Cape Girardeau, MO to be of consequence, I suppose.) Any of our commenters have any special insight into what made Quincy go the other direction?

              Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

              by David Jarman on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:37:46 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't consider Quincy (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                kman23, ArkDem14

                a city of any consequence whatsoever, so I think that basically supports the assertion that all cities of consequence on the Mississippi are blue bastions.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:42:08 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Quincy (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                David Jarman

                Quincy has had a string of Democratic Mayors recently, only to see that change due to a failed hydro power project that wasn't completely the fault of former Mayor John Spring.  

                I take offense to the idea that forty thousand citizens (as was said down thread) have no electoral significance.    It may be because I know a ton of people from this area of the country.

                Phil Hare just got caught saying some things that were easily exploitable.  He wasn't lazy per se, he just got caught up in the storm of 2010.  

                IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

                by BoswellSupporter on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 12:53:28 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  Kim Dotcom for mayor of Christchurch, NZ? (0+ / 0-)

    Local columnist thinks it's a great idea:
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/...

  •  Utah mayoral candidate a man of many hats (3+ / 0-)
    Dirk Burton's hall of hats begins at the top of the staircase and leads into the basement. There are two hallways covered from top to bottom with hats, neatly hanging by hooks.
    All the hats are cherished and worn by their owner, Dirk Burton, who happens to be running for mayor of West Jordan City.
    http://www.kutv.com/...
  •  WI-Gov: Mary Burke drumbeat gets louder (5+ / 0-)

    You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

    by Gpack3 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:06:08 AM PDT

    •  Could do worse (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, askew, ChadmanFL, betelgeux

      I can't quite understand why his pathetic job performance hasn't resonated more. I mean yeah the president was re-elected with mediocre job creation yet his approval dropped into the low-forties.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:11:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The protests and the recall (8+ / 0-)

        Firmed up Republican loyalty to Walker, and Democratic opposition. He has a very high floor and a very low ceiling.

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:27:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And independents keep giving him (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          The benefit of the doubt?

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:37:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's my question (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            brooklyncyclones, kman23

            Why independents and moderates keep giving Walker the benefit of the doubt. Especially after he just pursued another part of a very conservative agenda, pushing an offensive anti-abortion bill as he just signed. And session after sessions its like watching a parade of far-right conservatism without a hint of the moderation that once defined Wisconsin Republicans, and yet moderate voters keep ignoring this.

            How long can these same voters support Walker as Walker fails every promise he made, and continues to have one of the worst job growth records of any governor in the country, despite taking rather drastic measures whose raison de etre was that they would create job growth. Democrats need to put out a real candidate. And do more about minority and Democratic turnout in Milwaukee, which completely craters in midterms.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 10:19:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  the 250K jobs promise (0+ / 0-)

              will make or break him, similar to Gillard's no carbon tax promise.

              •  doubt it (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jncca

                Dems will attack Walker on the state's weak economy, but they can't effectively attack him for "breaking his word" on something that (unlike the carbon tax) isn't tied to a specific policy. Most voters may not be very sophisticated, but I think they understand that the state government does not control private employers' hiring decisions.

                SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:19:46 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Disagree (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14

                  It's the benchmark he set out for himself to be judged on. He won't even be close, even if there's a late 90s dotcom boom again. And it's not just weak in absolute terms, Wisconsin is badly lagging the rest of the nation. His flagship jobs agency is mired in scandal and corruption, so it's very easy to make the connection for voters.

                  You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

                  by Gpack3 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 12:26:45 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Indies aren't paying a lot of attention (0+ / 0-)

            You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

            by Gpack3 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:22:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  IA01: Kajtazovic exploring (12+ / 0-)

    State Rep Anesa Kajtazovic D-Waterloo exploring run in IA-01. Bosnian native, elected in `10, youngest woman ever in IA legislature, pushed aside scandalized incumbent, 1st incumbent re-elected in revolving door district since 2004. Close ties to Braley. Exciting.

    http://jdeeth.blogspot.com/...

    John Deeth http://www.jdeeth.blogspot.com

    by jdeeth on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:14:20 AM PDT

  •  KY-2: A decent candidate running: (7+ / 0-)

    Recently retired Major Ron Leach of Nelson County is running: http://mycn2.com/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:25:00 AM PDT

  •  Australian Federal Election (10+ / 0-)

    Kevin Rudd unveils a plan that in theory should help to eliminate the leadership instability that has plagued the party for the past three years. The plan sounds pretty good in my opinion, though I wonder if the backroom bosses that hold a lot of sway in Labor would go for it.

    This is following Rudd's action to have the disgraced and scandal plagued New South Wales Labor party put under control of the federal party.

    If a leader wins an election they remain leader for the duration of the term, except if the leader resigns, requests a leadership election or if 75 per cent of caucus members sign a petition calling for a leadership election ''on the grounds that the current leader has brought the party into disrepute''.

    Votes in election of leader to be apportioned equally between the party membership and the caucus.

    Candidates must be nominated by 20 per cent of caucus.

    Election for leader to automatically occur following an election loss.

    Only caucus members elect deputy leader, Senate leader and Senate deputy leader.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/...

    And Labor is out with their first ad for the Federal Election. It's a pretty meh ad with Kevin Rudd saying wants to talk about issues instead of just attacks.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 10:00:02 AM PDT

  •  NYC-Comptroller: I checked, and I think (8+ / 0-)

    every comptroller since Lazarus Joseph (1946-1953) has run for some higher office during or after their term.  Two succeeded: Abe Beame and Alan Hevesi.

    Specifically:

    Lawrence Gerosa lost the primary for comptroller, then ran as independent for mayor.

    Abe Beame won the Mayor's office, then served for one (incredibly rocky) term and came in third in the primary running for re-election.

    Mario Procaccino ran for Mayor, running, "according to journalist Richard Reeves, 'the worst political campaign in American history.'"

    Harrison Goldin lost the Mayoral primary to David Dinkins.

    Elizabeth Holtzman ran for Senate in 1992 and came in "last behind New York Attorney General Robert Abrams, former Representative and 1984 vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro, and Al Sharpton."  Then she got "crushed" in her own re-election primary by...

    Alan Hevesi, who won for State Comptroller a couple of times before resigning over one scandal and then pleading guilty in another scandal.

    Bill Thompson, of course, lost a close race for Mayor in 2009 and, I think, has a pretty good shot at winning this one.

    John Liu is running for Mayor, but is given little chance in part because of his own fundraising scandal.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 10:45:07 AM PDT

  •  IL-13: Davis raises $450K (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 10:55:42 AM PDT

  •  Livestream of the TX-Gov announcement (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Darth Jeff, bythesea

    British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

    by General Goose on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:04:29 AM PDT

  •  NV-LG: GOP Sen Mark Hutchison will run (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    https://twitter.com/...

    Ralston calls him a "Very strong candidate.."  Given how tight the Senate is, this race could be worth a lot.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:12:21 AM PDT

  •  Perry will NOT seek re-election (4+ / 0-)
  •  Perry's not running!!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bythesea

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:17:05 AM PDT

  •  Perry out. (n/t) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:17:10 AM PDT

  •  Echoing Trowaman (7+ / 0-)

    Although Perry isn't the best, he is better than Abbott. Far far far and away better. He is also more beatable than Abbott is.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:28:47 AM PDT

  •  MI-Sen (15+ / 0-)

    $1m+ for Peters.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:52:19 AM PDT

    •  That is quite the haul (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MetroGnome, James Allen, ArkDem14

      I imagine he will have a very well funding campaign. And at this point I honestly don't expect a very intense race for this seat. Republicans seem content with punting.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 03:27:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly why I don't understand (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome, James Allen

        everyone labeling it Lean D.  

        Peters is a great campaigner, and has held federal office before.  Land has only ever been Secretary of State, so no one's really sure what her politics are.  As much as everyone talks about how she'd be a strong candidate, well....we can't really say that for sure, as she's never run for federal office.

        Not to mention, as far as I can tell, Land's been pretty silent since announcing her candidacy.  Unless we see some life from her, this race should be Likely D.

  •  2014 House race ratings (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Joe Cooper, James Allen

    Assuming no more incumbent retirements.

    GOP-held:

    likely D - CA31
    tilt R - CO6, IL13
    lean R - CA21, FL2, IN2, MI1, MI7, MI11, NE2, NV3, NJ5, NY11, NY19, NY23, VA4
    likely R - CA10, CA25, CA39, CA45, CO3, FL10, FL13, FL16, FL25, FL27, GA1, IN8, IN9, IA3, IA4, KY6, MI3, MI6, MI8, MN2, MN3, MN6, NJ3, NY2, NY27, NC9, OH1, OH7, OH14, OH15, OH16, PA6, PA7, PA8, PA11, PA12, PA15, PA16, SC7, VA1, VA2, VA5, VA10, WA3, WA8, WI1, WI7, WI8, WV2

    Dem-held:

    tossup - AZ2, FL18, NC7
    tilt D - CA36, NH1, TX23
    lean D - AZ1, AZ9, CA7, CA26, CA52, CT5, FL26, GA12, IL10, ME2, MA6, NH2, NY1, NY18, NY21, UT4, WV3
    likely D - CA3, CA24, FL22, IL12, IL17, MN8, NV4, NY3, OR5, WA1

    Some of the "likelys" are more likely than others, e.g., Denham is more vulnerable than Royce is. To me, likely R (D) means that a D (R) win would be a big upset, but still plausible if a wave develops. There are a lot more likely R than likely D races, mostly because there are a lot more seats in GOP-drawn states than in Dem-drawn ones.

    MI7, NJ5, and VA4 are my sleeper races for this cycle. Romney narrowly won all 3, and they have far-right incumbents who beat whodats unimpressively in 2012.

    Thoughts?

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 12:14:56 PM PDT

    •  I wouldn't put VA-4 (0+ / 0-)

      at Lean R until we have a candidate.  I think CA-52 is a Tossup, and NY-18 is as well if it's a Maloney-Hayworth rematch which IIRC she declared for.  And IL-12 should only be Lean D.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 12:19:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Put IN-09 as Solid GOP in 2014 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, KingofSpades, James Allen

      No top Democratic challenger looks to take on Todd Young in 2014, but they may take him on in 2016.

      IN-08 could be more interesting. Gov. Mike Pence will appoint a new State Auditor this month after he appointed current Auditor Tim Berry as GOP chair. Richard Mourdock wants to stay in the game, so he was looking at switching offices to take Auditor since he couldn't run for Treasurer again, and he would have likely done well as the GOP State Convention (no primary for the office). Pence, who likely blames Mourdock for his race closing at the the end does not want Mourdock on the ticket in 2014, which would energize Democrats, so he will likely choose the person that will be the GOP nominee for Auditor, shutting out Mourdock for a statewide office. That means that he might start thinking about challenging Rep. Larry Buschon (R-Newburgh) in the 8th district. That, plus a descent Dem candidate could put the 8th district in play, but if it doesn't happen, the same thing as the 9th- wait until 2016 when Hillary is running at the top of the ticket.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 01:18:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Result (0+ / 0-)

      So if Ds keep all their districts, and take the lean R and better districts, we would have a net D gain of 16.  One short.  But the Speaker doesnt vote, creating a tie.

    •  MI-11 is Likely R. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      This is one of those districts where, frankly, PVI is kind of useless.  It's a pretty dark red district, made even moreso by redistricting.  We have no real bench here, and often the candidates we do find to run don't know how to campaign.  Unless someone like state senator Glenn Anderson (who always seems to do quite well in the district's largest city, strongly Republican Livonia, despite being a fairly progressive Dem), this race won't even be competitive.  Peters could've probably won it last year if he'd run there, too.  But that's the kind of candidate we'd need.

      Yes, Bentivolio is a nutjob, but he's also a Republican.  No one in the 11th really liked McCotter all that much, but they kept voting for him.

      So yeah, Likely R for MI-11.  If Bentivolio is primaried by someone saner, or if he retires, it's Safe R.

      •  PVI isn't useless at all (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        looking at the downballot races they're not that much worse than the PVI when you compare each to the state PVI/partisan average. Obama didn't overperform here all that much.

        The only reason this is such a tough district in addition to its lean is our bench sucks. The district isn't all that red though, my data says Stabenow carried it by ~5.5% last year and Granholm only lost by ~2 in 2006. I could think of plenty more districts where PVI is less informative. This district is R+5; that's pretty tough for us as it is.

        •  Our bench is bad here (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          because it's Republican, though.

          Also, Granholm only losing by two in 2006 isn't a very good indication of partisan strength in the 11th, because EVERYONE hates Dick DeVos in Michigan, because of his association with Amway.  I remember speculation at the time that he might even lose the western part of the state, which is one of the base areas in Michigan for Republicans, because while they hated Granholm, they hated Amway even more.

          You're right that R+5 is tough, but for some reason so many people on here seem to think we have a good shot at taking it next year.  Which isn't the case.  

          We have very little chance of winning this seat next year.  Short of a perfect storm of us somehow finding a good candidate, the GOP finding the worst possible candidate (be it Bentivolio or someone else) and a good year for Dems, we will not pick up this seat.

          I grew up in Livonia, which is one of the anchors of MI-11.  And I can tell you, it's extremely racist and extremely Republican.  It's still one of the whitest cities in the country at its population level.

          If we get an amazing candidate in MI-11, we should absolutely try and win it.  But if it's the usual caliber we end up with, then frankly, there are other races in this country the party's money would be better spent on.

    •  MI-1 (0+ / 0-)

      MI-1 is about as classic a toss-up as you can get.  It's an historically Democratic district that's been won by a Republican the last two cycles, but with Dems closing the already small gap the second time around.  This isn't a "lean R" even with the redistricting of the place.

    •  MN-6 (0+ / 0-)

      I think that MN-6 is a likely D. Bachmann  won't run for re-election and she narrowly beat the D challenger.

    •  Kurt Schrader is in all likelihood safe (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, ArkDem14

      There's no Republican who would an could take him on right now. The Republican state legislators in the Clackamas County portion are all too weak currently, and couldn't compete with him. Kennemer might give him a bit of a scare (and still not win) but I don't think Kennemer thinks he can beat Kurt. The Republicans in the Salem area might run at some point, but aside from Jackie Winters they're all state reps and would have to give up their seats. Jackie is too old to run, and when she retires and one of the reps moves up, they might take a shot when they have a 4 year seat and can take a free shot.

      The Republicans in Polk have seats only partially in his district so they wouldn't have a strong enough base, and are too rural-oriented for a district whose population is based in Salem and the Portland suburbs.

      No Republicans of any consequence on the coast.

      Short of another 2010-like year he's fine.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:15:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NRSC wetting themselves over Schweitzer (11+ / 0-)

    but are trying hard to act like he's weak: http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Also, they called him "the next Akin" for his tongue lashes against DC lifestyle.  Yeah, no.  And it says a lot that a candidate you ran is now a joke to you as well.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 12:33:05 PM PDT

  •  So what do they call beers that are not ales (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marcus Graly

    in areas where "ale" is the predominant? I've always thought of that word denoting a particular type of beers (aka the good kind :P) along with other types like lagers, etc.

    Kind of reminds me of how could anyone in the South refer to all sodas as Coke when that's a brand name and a very specific drink at that and there are innumerable brands and types of soda.

  •  Speaking of beer and maps, here's a US one (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, andgarden

    http://www.adweek.com/...

    It has each state by it's biggest liquor or beer brand.

    Louisiana surprises me.  At least in New Orleans Abita and to a lesser extent NOLA Brewing seem a lot more popular than Southern Comfort.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 01:49:48 PM PDT

    •  Looks like Delaware is first in my book with (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff

      Dogfish Head, though Michigan is a very close 2nd and NC 3rd. I've never seen that Oregon brand on the east coast along with a few of the other states, but damn do Dogfish Head and Bells make a good IPA. Highland is also a pretty decent brewer, not the best by any means, but they make some very good stuff and their amber ale is probably my favorite of any I've tried. They're quite predominant in western NC being based out of Asheville, but you can find their beer in nearly any grocery store around here too.

      And LOL at Colorado. So many good beers, but they're stuck with Coors.

    •  Somewhat surprising that (0+ / 0-)

      Flying Dog was picked for Maryland over National Bohemian.  Then again, Natty Boh isn't actually brewed in the state anymore (it's in Wisconsin and/or North Carolina.)

      Some commentors expressed dismay that Virginia is represented by a New Jersey-based brand (Laird); meanwhile for NJ they have Jagermeister, which of course is made in Germany.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 02:22:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Never heard of Laird before. (0+ / 0-)

        We have the fairly decent Flying Fish (out of Cherry Hill!).

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 02:26:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Laird is a distiller (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          that makes applejack.  It gets its apples from the Shenandoah Valley in Virginia and distills there, explaining the VA connection.  After distilling, the blending, aging, and bottling takes place in Jersey.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 02:28:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  shouldn't be too surprised about TN (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jeffmd

      it is Ke$ha's home state after all...

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 03:54:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No question that Yuengling is a safe default in PA (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 04:46:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't know beer labels (0+ / 0-)

      What is that on Indiana?

      I'm a Southern Comfort man myself.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 05:09:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I wouldn't be so sure on Abbott (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen

    He's the favorite, but I have a hunch Dewhurst may jump into the Governor's race with Perry out.  After all, you don't run for Lieutenant Governor because you want to spend 16 years as Lieutenant Governor and then retire.

    29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 01:54:30 PM PDT

    •  Lt. Gov. in Texas (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TDDVandy, JGibson, James Allen

      is a quite powerful office in itself, essentially running the state Senate.  Bill Hobby was Lt. Gov. for eighteen years (1973-90) and Bob Bullock for eight (1991-98), and neither made any attempt to run for governor, or any other office after leaving the LG slot (though Bullock died less than a year after retiring.)

      Dewhurst may be a different matter, though, given his US Senate attempt.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 02:07:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Who knows why Dewhurst is running again? (0+ / 0-)

      If he runs for Governor, he will get crushed by Abbott.

      And I think this is his last session -- Dewhurst will not make it out of the Lt. Governor primary.  His performance in the 1st special session will take his already suspect reputation in the eyes of conservatives and make it that much worse

      Barack Obama for President '12

      by v2aggie2 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 10:13:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  For the sake of gender equality (0+ / 0-)

    I think Spitzer should run against Weiner (online?) and leave the NY dems alone.

    I made a similar Chokely vs Sink comment a few days ago.

  •  With the NC Supreme Court only one judge (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    has been appointed only, Cheri Beasley. All of the others have been elected at least once against an opponent, though the races are non-partisan they are not retention-elections.

    •  Even had Ervin won (0+ / 0-)

      I don't think Democrats would have good odds with this case. The courts just do not want to get involved in partisan redistricting if it means line-drawing becomes their responsibility on a regular basis. Even Breyer, who has indicated that there are constitutional issues involved, has indicated that the prerequisite for any legal standard has to be based on the process, not the electoral outcome(ie. PR is out - it would be absurd if a map became illegal because a Todd Akin lost a safe seat).

      That said I suspect North Carolina will be ground zero when and if a more liberal court does start moving into the field. In every other state except Tennessee, a statewide electorate has a veto over the line-drawing process. In North Carolina there is none, with no statewide initiative system or gubernatorial veto. As a consequence, the impact of any decision could be limited to the unique circumstances of the state of North Carolina.

      That said, given that redistricting is done(and hence its unclear who would have standing) and the court is what it is, I would not expect any such ruling until 2023.

      •  Agreed, though I wouldn't have said that it was (0+ / 0-)

        impossible since court politics are often relatively opaque. However, with the current Republican court the only way I see it changing before 2023 is if A) the State Supreme court denies the appeal for some reason that leaves the door open to a future case and B) Republicans idiotically go through with the proposal to partisanize judicial elections, allowing us to have the state's liberal trend elect a relatively partisan majority to the court that strikes it down.

        That the supreme court elections are non-partisan kills us in the near term. Incumbents have a huge advantage and undervoting is ridiculous compared to the council of state elections where we held a generic edge in 2012, nearly even winning the Lt. Governor's office with a black woman (7,000 votes might be enough that race mattered) while McCrory won by 11.

        I'm not familiar with the case law concerning the 2003 decision that threw out the 2002 Dem gerrymander, but it only takes one glance at the lines and you can see they're a hell of a lot messier both aesthetically and effectively than the current GOP map is. It's just a lot easier to pack Dems than Republicans while drawing a legal map.

        •  the 2002 court (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          shouldn't have rejected this or this.

          •  Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Republicans (0+ / 0-)

            control the court then as they do now?

            Again as I said I wasn't familiar with the 2002 process, but we'd have almost certainly still lost the state senate anyway under those lines and the House map looks like it has some non-VRA required double-crossing between counties. Still that senate map looks perfectly fine but it doesn't really look all that much better politically than the 2004-2010 map. I couldn't say for the house without mapping it out.

            I believe I mapped out the original state senate lines from 2002 and the median district was only 2% better than it was under the court map, meaning we'd have likely still lost it. Our strength in the state legislature relied on all of those rural blue dog seats in the east and in the Appalachians and by the end of the decade would have seen a lot of wasted strength in the quickly growing and Dem trending districts in suburban Wake and Mecklenburg counties.

            •  blame Clinton (sort of) (0+ / 0-)
              Of historic significance to the interplay between precinct lines and compliance with § 2 and § 5 of the VRA was the attempt, in 1995, of the General Assembly to enact legislation that would prohibit legislative and congressional districts from crossing precinct lines...When submitted for pre-clearance, the U.S. Department of Justice (“USDOJ”) objected to preclearance of the whole precinct statute because it concluded the State had failed to prove the statute was free from discriminatory purpose and that the State had failed to prove that the statute would not have a discriminatory “effect” or “lead to a retrogression in the position of . . . minorities with respect to their effective exercise of the electoral franchise.”
            •  Also blame the Roberts Court (0+ / 0-)

              referencing Barlett,

              The plurality has thus boiled § 2 down to one option: the best way to avoid suit under §2, and the only way to comply with § 2, is by drawing district lines in a way that packs minority voters into majority-minority districts, probably eradicating crossover districts in the process.
              This practically allowed the GOP to pack minorities based on political motivations as long race was not the dominant factor.
              Dr. Hofeller constructed the 2011 Twelfth Congressional District based upon whole Vote Tabulation Districts (“VTDs”) in which President Obama received the highest voter totals during the 2008 Presidential Election. only information on the computer screen used by Dr. Hofeller in selecting VTDs for inclusion in the Twelfth District was the percentage by which President Obama won or lost a particular VTD. (Id. at pp. 18-19) There was no racial data on the screen used by Dr. Hofeller to construct this district.
  •  So I've got a question about some races from 2008 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, wwmiv, jncca

    Despite the blue wave, we only knocked off incumbents in 6 McCain districts. Similarly to the senate, where zero scandal free incumbents have lost a state that their presidential ticket carried with a majority of the vote post 1994 alignment, I was curious as to the circumstances of these wins and could only figure out a few. We have:

    CO-04 - Betsy Markey defeats Marilyn Musgrave, crazy incumbent, 49.5% plurality McCain district, fairly easily explained
    FL-24 - Suzanne Kosmas crushes scandal plagued Tom Feeney, easily explained even for a 50.5% McCain district
    ID-01 - Minnick defeats Bill Sali, crazy incumbent for sure but even that loss is astounding for a 62% McCain seat
    NY-29 - Massa defeats Randy Kuhl in a 51% McCain seat, not sure about this one.
    PA-03 - Kathy Dahlkemper squeaks out a victory in a seat McCain won by 17 votes, pretty easy to explain that one too.
    VA-05 - Tom Periello defeats Virgile Goode in a 51% McCain seat, also not sure about this one.

    So what was it about Randy Kuhl and Virgil Goode that caused them to lose when plenty of other incumbents held their seats that year in similar R+4 to R+5 districts? How fucking batshit crazy was Bill Sali that he lost an R+17/R+18 district?

    Even in the senate, only one incumbent lost a McCain state and that's because Alaska's Ted Stevens was indicted for corruption the week before the election and still only lost by about 1% with rightwing third parties possibly playing spoiler.

    Compared to 2012, exactly zero incumbents lost to a non-incumbent in a race where redistricting didn't have a significant impact. Leonard Boswell lost to Tom Latham in an Obama district, but both were incumbents and redistricting played a huge role (45% new to Boswell). Alan West (77% new) and Quico Canseco (30% new) both lost to challengers in Romney districts, but redistricting played a significant role in both seats. No senate incumbents lost in a friendly state (only one lost period).

    •  Canseco and West (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      were both scandal plagued Tea Party incumbents, with Canseco running against a demographic trend in a district which is more Democratic downballot (save for the Cruz results, which are tempered by his coethnicity factor) than at the top.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 03:17:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What scandal hit Canseco? (0+ / 0-)

        West didn't have a scandal in office, it was just his military record and craziness that dragged him down below Romney's performance.

        Back to Canseco, isn't he Hispanic?  How did he run against a demographic trend and get no coethnicity factor like Cruz did?

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 03:28:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Each question in turn (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, DCCyclone

          1) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

          2) Just because the scandal didn't happen while he was in office doesn't mean that he wasn't scandalous.

          3) Yes, he is Hispanic, but political scientists have found that coethnicity only works if you're running against an Anglo. When it is two Anglos or two Hispanics running against eachother, the normal partisan baselines is most likely to occur. In this case they were both Hispanic.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 03:37:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ah yes, I remember those mailers. (0+ / 0-)

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 03:39:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I'd hardly call that a scandal at all (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            Scandal is like getting caught taking bribes or sexual harassment or getting indicted while in office or soliciting prostitutes.

            Dirty campaign tactics hardly count.

            •  I think we have different operationalizations of (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades

              scandal.

              A scandal is anything that in the eyes of the voter is substantially unpalatable and gets a significant amount of play in the media.

              This certainly counts.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 03:55:07 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  No, it's not (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sacman701, abgin

                otherwise Gary Miller is scandal plagued or Joe Gao was scandal plagued or Jim Leach or Chet Edwards was scandal plagued simply by being in a district where their views are or became out of line with those of the party who had a huge advantage in their district, making that candidate's views "substantially unpalatable in the eyes of the voters."

                A scandal needs to have some element of ethical lapse and not just an "oh I find that strategy disgusting." More like "you broke the law/abused the powers of your office."

                •  Minor nitpick (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Audrid

                  It's Cao, even though it's pronounced Gao.

                  25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                  by HoosierD42 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 05:12:10 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Huh? (0+ / 0-)

                  Sorry, I thought it was pretty clear that scandals involve ethical lapses as well. I'd just consider any ethical lapse that voters do not like and that gets a substantial media play, regardless of if the person is actually breaking the law or abused the powers of his office, as a scandal.

                  In this case, utilizing an immoral and unethical tactic that Catholic voters found reprehensible and which massively backfired against him was a scandal.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:59:49 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  2006 removed most of the low hanging fruit (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MrLiberal, James Allen

      In 2008  a larger turnout and a decisive  percentage of crossovers who would not vote for the incumbent caused the Democrats to win. All those seats were given back in 2010 (along with many other seats) when turnout was lower and independents went 2-1 against Democrats.

      Goode and Kuhl probably got caught napping and even then lost by just a little. There was something about Goode investing in a adult film or something in 2008. Obama also  drove turnout in Virginia and pulled Periello over.

    •  Virgil Goode (7+ / 0-)

      was fairly crazy too.  He didn't have any major scandals but was kind of a lightning rod for controversy, including being one of the congressmen who was very outspoken against Keith Ellison taking the oath of office on a Koran and accepting some questionable donations.  Towards the end of his time in Congress, he was also less of a mainstream Republican and more of a Paulist.  Nothing major, but enough together to cost him the thousand or so votes he lost by.

      •  You forget the whole embarrassing (0+ / 0-)

        gay porno fiasco that I think may have hurt Goode's standing with some evangelicals who Perrielo, a former activist in Catholic missionary organizations, may have been able to appeal to.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 09, 2013 at 12:09:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Kuhl never seemed to be very popular (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen

      he was a longtime State Senator, but he only got 51% when he was elected to Congress in 2004 and re-elected in 2006. He was also a conservative taking over a seat from a moderate Republican, which probably didn't help him with swing voters.

    •  I paire Goode (6+ / 0-)

      With Thelma Drake. She's not on your list because Obama very narrowly won VA-02 that year, but it was a huge swing from four years earlier. I think Nye and Perriello were just about the only two Hosue candidates who directly benefited from Obama coattails - or, to put it more specifically, specifically from Obama's tremendous GOTV operations in places that hadn't previously seen major Democratic efforts (i.e., Virginia).

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 05:01:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not just "scandal" per se, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Jarman, ArkDem14

      but sometimes personal unpopularity can do an officeholder in as well.  I live in PA-3, and I remember the Dahlkemper-English race.  Phil English, despite being a poor politician and the very definition of "gone Washington" held on for seven terms largely because (1.) he got crossover support because he was willing to pay lip service to labor issues, and (2.) the Erie Democratic Party never really made much of an effort to contest the seat (they could have bumped him off in 2006 had they run anyone but the bizarre, dreadful Steven Porter).  By the time 2008 rolled around, English was seen as being too tight with George Bush and had rankled his labor support (by voting for CAFTA among other things), and the Democrats finally put up a plausible candidate for the seat, so just about all of English's soft support defected to Kathy Dahlkemper.

      I suspect there were similar conditions elsewhere.  Better Democratic candidates plus unpopular Republicans who couldn't wash Bush's stink off of themselves equaled Democratic victories, even in some very unlikely places.

      Born, raised, and currently reside in PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor and 9/11); college in the old OH-10; graduate school in the old OH-17

      by JBraden on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:22:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Awesome, I'm really thinking this is (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, James Allen

      one of our best 5 pick up opportunities and it looks like a tossup this far out. Nelson absolutely destroyed Mack here and Ellmer Fudd would do the same to Rick Scott next year. This seat was D+4 compared to the state downballot and only growing bluer. I think that Lawson's primary of Boyd might have been what did him in last year. Yeah he wasn't really all that liberal, but running your first campaign campaign bashing your Blue Dog incumbent of the same party in a divisive race isn't likely to win you over the conservadems who would put us over the top here.

      •  Not to forget this a district that only vote for (0+ / 0-)

        "certain" type of Democrats if you what I mean.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 04:21:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe, certainly at the margins (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          geoneb, ArkDem14

          but 3% of the entire electorate being racist Democrats who only voted for Southerland because his opponent was black (or undervoted) is fairly significant. This isn't like Linda Coleman losing by 7,000 votes out of 4.37 million or just .0008% of the electorate flipping their votes. Then again, this is the Deep South which has a well deserved reputation for racial intolerance...

          It's much easier to point to Lawson's campaign platform and history rather than just his race. We clearly have an idea of how popular Obama is here and if you campaigned the previous cycle against the incumbent for not voting with the president enough, it's fairly easy to paint you as being "Obama's candidate" and all the crap that goes with that. I'm not saying racism didn't cost Lawson the district, just that it's very hard to demonstrate. The closest we can come is seeing how big of a margin Nelson destroyed Mack by (greater than statewide) but Nelson was a well liked multi-term incumbent who had a significant amount of money. Lawson only got funds in the last leg of the race from the DCCC.

          To put all this another way, Lawson raised all of $714k the entire cycle or just twice what Graham raised in her first quarter!

          •  Unfortunately some parts of the South (0+ / 0-)

            are still like that. That's why I'm not comfortable with the idea of running a black candidate for statewide office in some of these places down there.

            Obama is totally different. In some places he does better, but overall in lots of places he don't. How much you wanna bet if it was Deborah Ross who ran last year, or the guy who just succeeded her. Or any white Dem state legislator in NC. They most likely could had won that LG race last yr.

            I remember when the Georgia senate seat opened up this year, and people where touting the former AG Thurbert Baker, I scoffed at that idea. It would be much better a white Dem runs.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 05:18:37 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  A Black Democrat (0+ / 0-)

              can prevent undervoting, though.  It works both ways.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 05:44:58 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  She had Sens. Gillibrand and Landrieu (5+ / 0-)

      help her raise some of that money last month in D.C.

      https://twitter.com/...

      Plus one in Tampa w/ Crist

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 04:18:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Now that Eliot Spitzer is running for office... (8+ / 0-)

    does this mean I can use "Eliot-Spitzer-hooker-hour" as a unit of measurement again?

    e.g., "That new BMW will run you about 22 Eliot-Spitzer-hooker-hours.", or "He had a great fundraising quarter -- he pulled in almost 350 Eliot-Spitzer-hooker-hours."

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

    by jeffmd on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 03:46:57 PM PDT

  •  OH-Freedom to Marry (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, JBraden

    Why is the Human Rights Campaign so fucking inept?  1. Do not throw your fellow marriage equality advocates under the bus like that as there is a much better way to say we didn't promise you nothing.  2. They're busy wasting time in the South with a week-long tour, but they apparently don't want to help out in OH.  The link has polling that does show Arkansas being ripe as a state to making it illegal for fire someone for being gay or lesbian, but try getting that passed by a Republican legislature, in the South.

    Although, Freedom to Marry sure is jumping the gun as well in their own state.  I certainly understand wanting to do something as an Ohioan as you watch other states get marriage equality, but they need to wait.  And the crew in Florida are even bigger dumbies for thinking they can get 60% for their amendment.

  •  Rick Perry--out and up? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    We may not be seeing the last of him:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    So the reason why he's not president is because he didn't have enough time to prepare last time?  Uh-huh.  To paraphrase Jim Hightower, if self-delusion ever goes to $150 a barrel, I want drilling rights on Perry's head.

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 04:07:20 PM PDT

    •  Gotta love Mr. Hightower. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      He has the best quips.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 04:52:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Three reasons Perry's not president: (5+ / 0-)

      He's crazy, he's stupid, and uh........shit, what was the third, again?

      •  I honestly think he might have beaten Romney (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, James Allen, wwmiv

        if it had been the 2006 Rick Perry or the 2010 one who at least had competent handlers hiding his utter stupidity from his fellow Republicans even if he wasn't loved.

        He had the stature, had the record, and had the money to pose the only serious threat to Romney in the primary. But those debates just sunk him. What a dumbass. One with previously strong campaign staff, but a dumbass all the same.

        •  Perry had the same handlers (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, James Allen, ArkDem14

          He did have the same "competent" handlers for his Prez run that he had for his Gov runs.  They just proved the Peter principle, elevated to their level of incompetence.

          Perry's collapse and failure to ever have a second life were the biggest surprises of mine in the GOP race, and my biggest fails in my predictions.  I still don't quite follow why Newt and Santorum kept making charges after they looked like failures, but Perry never did.  It just goes to show how crazy Republican voters broadly really are.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 06:21:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm going to blame the pain medicine... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          The fact that he had to debate was bad enough, but he looked visibly in pain at the podium from his recent back surgery.  If he never had to debate so many times, he could have easily stayed even with Romney, since he was still very good on the stump.  I wouldn't count him out for 2016.  He is dumb as rocks, but even a stupid dog can be trained to behave in public.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:19:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Had no idea he suffered from immense back pain. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            I'll bet he's never seen a chiropractor and instead exclusively uses pain pills.

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:45:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Gross (0+ / 0-)

      I just want to forget him.

      Age 25, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler), getting married in September:)

      by KyleinWA on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 05:18:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Greg Phillips Confirmed To 10CA (7+ / 0-)

    The vote was 88-0. Makes the Tenth Circuit evenly divided among active judges, with two more vacancies left, and it creates a vacancy for WY-AG that I'm guessing it's quite unlikely we hold...

  •  PA-Gov (5+ / 0-)

    Harper is out with a new poll, and it's got absolutely brutal re-elect numbers for Tom Corbett.  24% say he deserves reelection while 56% say he doesn't; only 43% of Republicans say he deserves reelection.  

    Harper is also apparently trying to be PPP by throwing in a cutesy random question at the end (Pennsylvanians prefer Reese's Cups to any other Hershey's candy by a wide margin).

    http://www.harperpolling.com/...

    •  Reese's Pieces are also good. (0+ / 0-)

      on a sundae they're even better!

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 04:52:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I basically have to agree with that one (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, SaoMagnifico

      I mean, the Hershey bar is an insult to chocolate.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 04:54:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, it's so...plain. (0+ / 0-)

        Hershey does have a good variety, though.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 04:57:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hershey bars are terrible. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, andgarden

        I've long wonder why they sell that garbage as their signature confection when their Symphony bars are significantly better.

        Born, raised, and currently reside in PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor and 9/11); college in the old OH-10; graduate school in the old OH-17

        by JBraden on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 06:27:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I haven't had one in a while, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, KingofSpades

          but I don't think I found it to be amazing either.

          Trader Joe's sells a pretty excellent line of milk and dark chocolate for Hershey prices. But it's made under contract in Belgium, so it is actually worth the occasional calories.

          Mars has some Dove-branded plain chocolate out now that's pretty decent too.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:10:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I never said Symphony was amazing (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            andgarden

            It's just slightly better than regular Hershey's "chocolate".  ;-)

            AFAIC, the best chocolate on Earth is made by Daffin's Candies (which bills itself as "the world's largest chocolate candy store") in my hometown of Sharon, PA.

            Born, raised, and currently reside in PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor and 9/11); college in the old OH-10; graduate school in the old OH-17

            by JBraden on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:34:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I hate how they put so much freaking salt (0+ / 0-)

        in their regular milk chocolate candies. I guess I'm just someone who doesn't like it in my chocolate. The only Hershey's I can stomach is their dark chocolate that might just be due to them using 1/3 of the salt they do for their regular candy bar. Even then it's not something I buy.

        "It is impossible to defeat an ignorant man in argument" ~William Gibbs McAdoo(D-CA)

        by lordpet8 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:42:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I hope he stays cause I want to get that senate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      for the first since what the 90's? We'll make good gain in the house but enough for majority.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 06:01:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think the Senate (0+ / 0-)

        will be that easy.  Over the past several elections there's been zero evidence of coattails in the PA Senate and not much in the PA House.  Some of the suburban Senate districts are winnable as open seats but it will be nearly impossible to knock off the incumbents.  Plus, we most likely lose Jim Ferlo right off the bat to redistricting.  I think it'll be really hard to take the chamber even with Corbett at the top of the ticket.

    •  Why does Harper suck so bad? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike, James Allen

      This is supposed to be relatively cheap polling, and they should be able to do it relatively competently.  How do they draw their samples?  Do their voter lists suck so bad?  And why do they release these damaging polls for their own side?  PPP is trying to just prove their accuracy and draw in clients with the free polls serving as free samples just like at Costco.  What is Harper doing?  They don't do enough free polls to really generate much publicity.  I don't really follow their thinking.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 06:23:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Atkins in 1992 is an interesting case (6+ / 0-)

    Atkins was in such a horrible position he probably would have killed to be Tierney's place right now.  I wrote about his 1992 primary loss last year:  

    Chester Atkins was undone by a combination of redistricting, the House Banking scandal, and his own unpopularity.  Atkins had won only 52% in 1990, with Lawrence and Lowell voting against him.  Atkins was damaged by his inability to save the local Fort Devens; he also managed to alienate his former allies in the legislature.  When it came time to redraw the district, legislative leaders deliberately kept Lawrence and Lowell while swapping Atkins' strong areas for ones where he was not known.  Atkins' 127 overdrafts and pay raise vote made his bad situation even worse.  Marty Meehan easily defeated Atkins 65%-35% and won the seat.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 04:46:29 PM PDT

  •  NE-SEN: Can't believe I missed this (15+ / 0-)

    I don't know if it was ever mentioned on here since I've been out the past week, but State Senator Brad Ashford (formerly Republican, now Independent) is 'inclined to run' for the Senate in 2014 as a Democrat.

    Though his chances are still probably slim, he would probably be the best we could get.

    http://journalstar.com/...

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 05:16:53 PM PDT

  •  Holy crap Patrick Murphy is a fundraising beast (10+ / 0-)

    I figured once Allen West wasn't his opponent he might start posting normal (i.e. 300k/quarter) totals but nope. This district is also one of the cheapest swing districts too in terms of its media markets.

    Also, does anyone happen to know who holds the record as longest serving American governor? Terry Branstad holds the title for those currently in office with a non-consecutive tenure of 18 years, 6 months.

    •  it's actually Branstad. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JDJase, lordpet8

      followed by Janklow.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 05:59:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Glad to see Murphy is doing well (0+ / 0-)

      in the fundraising department.  He's going to need it unless his next opponent turns out to be even more awful than Allen West (not an easy task, though far from impossible for today's GOPers).

      Born, raised, and currently reside in PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor and 9/11); college in the old OH-10; graduate school in the old OH-17

      by JBraden on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 07:40:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They've gotta find one first (0+ / 0-)

        And so far, other than rejections from their top candidates like Joe Negron, we've heard nothing but crickets, and it's pretty hard to challenge an incumbent when you start just a year before the election (that is, if it takes Republicans a few more months to natch a candidate).

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:55:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  CA-31: Eloise Reyes raised $203K (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, James Allen
  •  If you had to bet on 2014/13... (0+ / 0-)

    Post what party flips you think will take place in the House, Senate, and Governor's mansions in 2013 and 2014.  No tossups or leans... who you think will win each race.

    SENATE - Democratic Gains
    Georgia  (I still feel like this will be our Indiana/Missouri of 2014)

    SENATE - Republican Gains
    Alaska
    South Dakota
    West Virginia

    HOUSE - Democratic Gains
    CA-G. Miller
    CO-Coffman
    FL-Southerland
    MI-Benishek
    OH-Joyce
    WV-Capito

    HOUSE - Republican Gains
    AZ-Barber
    CA-Peters
    FL-Murphy

    Obviously not enough to win back the House.  I think there will be a lot of close races but not enough in the Democrats' favor.  I think Dems will retake the House in 2016 on a Hillary-inspired wave.

    GOVERNORS - Democratic Gains
    Florida
    Maine
    Pennsylvania
    Virginia

    I think Snyder will win narrowly.  South Carolina is not on this list because my gut feeling is Haley will chicken out.  If she doesn't, I think Sheheen wins.  Even if she does, it's still in the realm of possibility that the Republican loses, but not very likely.

    GOVERNORS - Republican Gains

    Arkansas
    Illinois
    Massachusetts

    I think all three of these races will be very close.  MA may seem random, but I just have a weird feeling about it.

    Score
    Senate: +2 R
    House: +3 D
    Governors: +1 D

    •  I think we win only a few House seats from the GOP (0+ / 0-)

      Overall:
      Senate Democratic Gains- None
      Republican Senate Gains- SD, WV, AR, LA, AK, if we don't get Schweitzer, also MT
      I think we get Schweitzer so, 50-50

      House:
      Dem gains- CA-31(Miller), CO-6 (Coffman), IL-13 (Davis)
      GOP gains- WV-3 (Rahall), CA-52 (Peters), AZ-2 (Barber), FL-18 (Murphy)

      I think the next most likely flips for Dems are FL-2 (Southerland), NY-19(Gibson), NY-11(Grimm). I almost put FL-2 on the flip list, but still want to see how good of a campaigner Graham is before doing that.
      I also almost put FL-26 (Garcia) and CA-36 (Ruiz) on the flip list from D to R.
      Rahall is my surprise flip of the cycle; I think Capito wins so big it drags down Rahall to a narrow loss.
      Don't think we get OH-14 or WV-2. So overall that is R+1, 235-200. I guess I think the number will end up being more like R+2 or 3, but no other race stood out as of now as being likely enough to flip as to put it down.

      Governor:
      R-gain: Arkansas
      D-Gain: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Maine, Florida, Virginia
      So, 26-24 R after the cycle.
      I do think that Ohio will be closer than the polls are saying now, esp. if SSM is on the ballot. I also think Wisconsin has the potential to become close if Dems find a good candidate and if job growth stays weak.

      23/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04

      by liberal intellectual on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 08:44:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wow, you're a Debbie Downer (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        on the Senate. ;-)

        I don't think we'll lose all three of AR, AK, and LA, and I think all three have the potential to hold on.  And the ever-present threat of teabaggings could turn even longshot races competitive.  I think a net loss of 2/3 in the Senate is more likely.  I agree that we'll get Brian Schweitzer.

        Born, raised, and currently reside in PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor and 9/11); college in the old OH-10; graduate school in the old OH-17

        by JBraden on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 08:58:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Haha I guess I just see those states as very red (0+ / 0-)

          which will make them tough to hold. Plus, we've had several decent cycles recently where everything went our way. I think 2014 will be better for the GOP/ they will get things in line.

          Even in 2010, while it was a terrible night, we won 2 more Senate seats (CO,NV) than a lot of people thought going in/

          23/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04

          by liberal intellectual on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:02:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Wow you're very pessimistic on the senate (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, JBraden, askew

        I don't see Landrieu losing. Surprisingly she's doing well. I believe Pryor hangs on too. You are grossly underestimating those two. Same with Begich.

        Even with the unnecessary news with Garcia, I think Mirphy would before he does. And Ruiz in Cali should be in decent shape IMO.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:06:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Murphy would lose before Garcia does* (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:09:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  My worry with Ruiz and Garcia (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden

          Is lower Hispanic turnout than last year, which will mean a whiter and more conservative electorate.

          Murphy I still want to see who his opponent ultimately is, but the district seems to be one that the GOP will be able to get back with a non-crazy (non-Allen West) candidate.

          23/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04

          by liberal intellectual on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:10:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  In regards to Garcia (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, KingofSpades, ArkDem14

            Dade county is like 60 plus percent Hispanic. Plus his district is not a Cuban majority district. So I don't see a whiter electorate in that race. Maybe a more Cuban electorate. Plus that's a district Crist shouldn't have any business losing. So Garcia should get help from the top of the ticket.

            I understand your concern with Ruiz. Cause Riverside is a swingish county

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:28:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I'd subtract (0+ / 0-)

        Rahall and Barber from your House list.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:21:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Methinks your "weird feeling" about MA (0+ / 0-)

      might be predicated on the idea of Martha Coakley running.  ;-)

      It's awfully early now, but if I had to guess:

      Senate: Probably +2/3R.  SD is gone, probably WV too (though that could change if Capito is teabagged and/or a strong Dem like Natalie Tennant gets in the race).  I think Mark Begich will squeak by in AK though.  Mark Pryor is vulnerable--he's no Blanche Lincoln, of course, but AR has turned against Team Blue swiftly and viciously.  As much as I'd love to see "Alison Forky" and Michelle Nunn win their respective races, I'm unconvinced those states are in reach for us in a midterm year--but I remain open to a pleasant surprise in each!

      House: Probably a wash or a few Republican gains.  Thanks to gerrymandering, there really isn't much low-hanging fruit on either side of the aisle.  Barber might hold on, though--I think the DCCC was caught napping there, plus there had to be some fatigue from running two campaigns less than six months apart.

      Governorships: PA is likely Dem with Corbett, tossup if he loses the primary or throws in the towel (perish the thought!).  VA will go with Boring Weaksauce instead of Nucking Futs.  ME is probably a Dem pickup too.  FL will depend a lot on Scott's opponent; I'd probably put it at tossup/tilt D now.  I think Schauer will beat Snyder, though--RTWFL is just too big an issue in Michigan.  Illinois is in jeopardy only if Pat Quinn wins the primary.  I sure wish he'd just retire.

      Born, raised, and currently reside in PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor and 9/11); college in the old OH-10; graduate school in the old OH-17

      by JBraden on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 08:47:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ok (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike, lordpet8

      Senate: +3R (AR, WV, SD)
      House: no change (only CA31 and NC7 flip)
      Gov: D flips FL, ME, PA, VA, MI, R flips AR so D+4

      Barring a scandal I don't see any scenario in which OH14 and CA52 both flip. Joyce is noncontroversial and relatively moderate in a Romney district, and Peters is the same in a district Obama won comfortably. Who do the Dems have in OH14? DeMaio is probably about as good as the GOP could get in CA52 assuming Bilbray's done, but his economic views are too far right to be a good fit for it at the national level.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 08:50:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pretty good, about where I'd have it. (0+ / 0-)

        If I had to say how it would go.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:20:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  On second thought (0+ / 0-)

          I'd remove NC7 and add CA-36 to that list of probably GOP wins.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:44:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Out of curiousity, psychicpanda (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      Why don't you have IL-13 as a flip? Davis barely won against a weak, perennial candidate (no offense to David Gill). This year Davis has a tough primary against Erika Harold and a strong Democratic opponent in Ann Callis.

      I guess I was curious because you are generally more optimistic on the House than me, but don't have that seat as a flip.

      Also, out of curiosity (if you don't mind), why do you have OH-14 and WV-2 as flips? I was just a little surprised to see those.

      Also, this was great fun to make a list at this stage, so thanks for the idea!

      23/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04

      by liberal intellectual on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 08:54:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have Davis winning due to incumbency. (0+ / 0-)

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:15:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Finally someone who agrees with me on GA-Sen (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      Im glad Im not the only one who see Michelle Nunn winning that race against either Gingrey or Broun. I really really really I mean really want Broun. Complete nuttiest in that primary. However, I have to disagree with some of your Gov predictions. I don't see Snyder winning in Michigan, what so ever. And there's no reason to believe we lose Massachusetts and Illinois. Arkansas is the only one we can lose.

      But most importantly I believe the Georgia will be a seat that the GOP piss away. Counting up to 6 seats that the pissed away the other five in being MO, IN, NV, CO, DE.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:00:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't disagree with you (0+ / 0-)

        I'm just not familiar enough with the state or the candidates to make a judgment.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:01:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think we'll take the house back before (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      2020, and I think that'll help us hold on to what we do take and prevent an anti-Dem wave till then. Despite Hillary being president.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:03:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hm (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Senate Dem: None
      Senate GOP: WV, SD, AR
      House Dem: Coffman
      House GOP: Barber, P. Murphy
      Gov GOP: AR
      Gov Dem: MI, PA, FL, VA, ME

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:14:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hmm (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Senate gains: none
      Senate losses: Arkansas, West Virginia, South Dakota

      House gains: CO-06, CA-31, IL-13, FL-02
      House losses: AZ-02

      Gubernatorial gains: Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Maine, Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Ohio
      Gubernatorial losses: Arkansas

      I should add that I think Democrats pick up OH-14 with a decent candidate -- none have come forward yet that I know of.

      •  Why are people down on Barber? (0+ / 0-)

        I know he's not outright favored to win, but he's probably a bit above even probability.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:19:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not down on Barber (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, KingofSpades, jncca

          More than I'm impressed by McSally.

          23/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Now NC-04

          by liberal intellectual on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:21:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  She lost before (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden

            And Barber's race was less paid attention to in them all last fall so there was probably decline.

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:24:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Let's also hope Dems have a great slate in 2014 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico

              they need it to help buoy their incumbents.

              "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

              by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:33:18 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  McSally is an outstanding recruit... (0+ / 0-)

          And Rep. Barber is just not a natural politician.

          •  But she lost before (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden, jj32

            and probably this time nobody will let it slip under the radar like last year.  And why do you say this about Barber?  He was Giffords' district director, so he'd have to know how to politic.  If I'd have to, I'd say, for now that Peters is probably a bit more likely to lose than Barber.

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:26:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I remember a few people saying (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JBraden, lordpet8

              how Bill Owens was probably going to lose re-election in 2012 because he's not a natural politician (in his case, that was a more accurate assessment than Barber) and GOPers got a top recruit and would not have a third party spoiler or primary battle like before.  Also, his district gained some old Republican turf in NE NY.  Owens won by 5000 votes with a Green Party spoiler who took 4K votes.

              "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

              by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:30:14 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The GOP's top recruit... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, Gygaxian

                Also shat all over himself with that sex scandal and never really recovered.

                •  Was it a persistent problem for him? (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Gygaxian

                  We just covered it in late 2011 (I forget when), joked about it as he struggled to explain it, and then it was never brought up (in our digests) again.  I dunno if it snowballed way up there or petered out.

                  "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

                  by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:36:28 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  The seat also has a Democratic average (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, James Allen, JBraden

                That plays very well in Barber's favor and if the gubernatorial race shapes up well for Democrats, Barber would get a boost from that.

                I'm also not sure how polished McSally is as a candidate, she made a comment about Giffords that drew ire from Mark Kelly.

                http://atr.rollcall.com/...

                “We are rugged individuals,” she told the Post. “We elect unique people to represent us in this district — Mo Udall, Jim Kolbe, Gabby Giffords. I resemble Gabby Giffords more than the man who worked for her, although I am grateful for his service.”
                Plus, I've read she was evasive about discussing issues last year and if she adopts that strategy again, Barber can have an angle.

                27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

                by DrPhillips on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:57:06 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Although I tend to get a little too involved (0+ / 0-)

              and take a negative prediction of someone I think is probably at least even odds as something that ruffles my feathers.  A poll, some knowledgeable opinion of how Barber is doing as a Congressman, etc. would be nice.

              "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

              by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:32:27 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Just a feeling (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, JBraden

                I don't notice you saying the same about Govs. Haley and Kasich, or Rep. Southerland. I just have a hunch they will lose.

                •  Yeah, sorry for getting henpecky. (0+ / 0-)

                  These are just early hunches, of course.  And personally, I have this weird feeling that predictions create self-fulfilling prophecies so I always hesitate to say if one is a probable loss.

                  "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

                  by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:39:09 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Now-Rep. Peters... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, lordpet8

              Beat an uncontroversial incumbent last year and is facing Captain Hypocrisy, who already has a giant oppo file on him that now-Mayor Filner of San Diego successfully deployed against him last year.

              Rep. Barber may have been district director, but he wasn't ever a candidate himself before last year, and he barely eked out a win in a race that went well under the radar compared to higher-profile contests like the aforementioned CA-52. I think McSally pulls an Andy Barr (lost in 2010, now a congressman) and wins next year. I'd like to be wrong.

              •  Good points. (0+ / 0-)

                Hence Dems need to keep a sharp eye here this time.

                "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

                by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:34:53 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  my intuition (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico

      is that in the senate we lose AR, SD, and WV, hold the rest, and no gains.

      In the house we pick up CA-31, FL-02, IL-13, lose CA-36, FL-26, and FL-18. I think there could be other gains if we recruit a good candidate here or there.

      For governors we lose Arkansas and pick up MI, PA, ME, VA, and... FL.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 10:01:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm more of an opptimist (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus

      Senate - Dem Gains
      Georgia (If Broun/Gingrey is nominated)
      Kentucky (If Grimes is an above average campaigner)

      Senate - GOP Gains
      South Dakota
      West Virginia (Tennant could make it a Toss-Up, IMO)
      Arkansas

      House - Dem Gains
      CA-31 (Miller)
      CO-06 (Coffman)
      IL-13 (Davis)
      FL-02 (Southerland)
      NY-19 (Gibson)
      NV-03 (Heck)

      I'm holding out hope for MI-01 (Benishek), CA-10 (Denham), NY-11 (Grimm), FL-13 (Young), PA-08 (Fitzpatrick), IN-02 (Walorski), and WV-02 (Capito)

      House - GOP Gains
      NC-07 (McIntyre)
      AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
      FL-18 (Murphy)
      FL-26 (Garcia)

      I feel optimistic about Peters, Ruiz, Barber, Sinema, Gallego, Maloney, and Matheson but I could see any of them losing.

      Governors - Dem Gains
      Pennsylvania
      Michigan
      Florida
      Virginia
      Maine
      South Carolina (If Haley doesn't retire)

      Governors - GOP Gains
      Arkansas (Though I can see Ross winning)
      Illinois (If Madigan doesn't hurry up and enter >:( )
      Connecticut (If Malloy's approvals don't improve soon)

      •  This is a somewhat eclectic list; (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701

        Judging from what we have so far, evidence-wise.

        For the sake of informed argument, here is a somewhat organized response, order-based.

        Dem Senate gains:

        -Too optimistic on Georgia. It really is too early to see who the GOP frontrunner is, whether Michelle Nunn even runs and runs a good campaign. This seat should be on the watch list of GOP holds simply given this lack of information and Georgia's generic GOP lean which intensifies considerable in off-year elections.

        Republican Senate Gains:

        -Now I'm the one being optimistic, but I have this spidy-sense feeling that Capito is going to lose her primary to some random Tea Party acolyte. If Democrats are able to convince a top-class candidate to be waiting in the wings, I think we hold this seat. West Virginia just hasn't embraced far-right Republicans at almost any level. David McKinley is one of the more moderate Republicans on economic issues, and Capito is also a moderate. If Democrats can convince Tennant or maybe State Senator John Unger to run, they should hold the seat.

        -Writing off Arkansas is premature, especially when it's no certain thing that Cotton is even running despite a lot of early outside prodding aimed at softening Pryor up (and with polls few and far between, the early appearance is that their efforts have done very little). Meanwhile Pryor is raising huge bucks, mustering every classic and beloved Democrat in the state's modern history behind him, and is making none of Lincoln's mistakes and facing none of her challenges. Even with Cotton, a mostly untested generic conservative with ties to the far-right, Pryor would, by my generalized corrections and interpretation of the state, have a slight advantage based on what we know now, with the joker card being how much political reallignment in the state is going to shake him.

        But really, it's the house ratings that are a little odder.

        Democratic gains:

        - At this early point, Gibson still is the slight favorite, until information comes out that suggests he isn't.

        -Same with Heck. Very untested Dem candidate here.

        -Even the David and Sutherland ratings are a bit much, though I am very optimistic on both of those ratings and tepidly do agree with you on them.

        Republican gains (the really spurrious section):

        -I'm just gonna lump this together. All four of your projected gains, even just as a casual bit of hypothetical, are a bit mystifying, like a random couple of competitive races lumped together. What was your thinking? What were the benchmarks? That would be a useful way for me to judge these calls and maybe find out if I am missing information. Because other than, possibly, the call on McIntyre (no certain thing), these don't make much sense to me.

        -Especially Ann Kirkpatrick. She's sitting on a very swingish district that Obama actually improved his performance in in 2012, even if only by a marginal amount. It has the added boon of being a district with a sizeable swath of conservative leaning, but ancestrally Democratic areas where Kirkpatrick may play well. She has no compelling Republican opponent, other than the true Tea Partier that just announced and is from the wrong geographic base in the district as well as having ties to the much abused Jesse Kelly campaign. I haven't seen statistical evidence suggesting that there's a particularly steep dropoff in the Democratic performance in this district in most midterm elections, or that Kirkpatrick isn't in a solid, if competitive position given all the info we have right now.

        -Writing off two of our 2012 Florida gains is also a little premature. Come on. Neither Garcia or Murphy have much in the way of impressive challengers; none of them have opponents yet who are really well known or who have raised anything beyond bupkis amounts, while they have wracked together enormous warchests. Murphy has the tougher district, but has avoided real mistakes and has a big head start over any potential Republican challenger. Garcia had a small snafu that involved his campaign manager (? memory may serve me wrong - or some other high-level campaign staffer), that was serious, but not connected to him or anyone else in his campaign. But Garcia also has the more Democratic district; and one that is steadily trending moreso. Both have the benefit of running while Florida's GOP is saddled with an unpopular governor atop the ticket. Given everything available right now (money, opponents, total district leans, etc), I don't think either can be said to be in a losing position generically.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 11:52:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's just my prediction (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          CF of Aus, ArkDem14

          I don't see how my guesses are any better or worse than the ones above me, so I don't exactly see why you've singled me out.

          I never said this is based on anything other than what my gut is telling me. In the case of Georgia, I put a "If" statement. That is a big "If" and I don't see how I'm being too optimistic. I really don't get why you're arguing with me for predicting things like Coffman and Southerland are toast when nearly everyone else is saying the same thing.

          My house ratings are just based on what I feel at this moment. I have a feeling that Erin Bilbray will be a strong challenger, hence why I feel Heck will loose. I don't think Michael Wager is a good enough candidate, hence why I don't see OH-14 flipping in 2016.

          I think Garcia's current campaign scandals will hurt him, and while I hope Murphy pulls through I think he will loose against a non-West challenger. I have a feeling Kirkpatrick will lose because she was under 50% last time and will likely suffer from reduced turnout among Native Americans and Hispanics.

          These are guesses for races that are more than a year away, and they will probably be completely different next year if not next month, so sorry

          •  Well, I like argument (0+ / 0-)

            And to see what kind of information or perspective I might miss.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Tue Jul 09, 2013 at 02:14:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  MD-Gov (5+ / 0-)

    Anthony Brown reports $1 million of fundraising to go along with his hiring of Jim Messina as a senior adviser.  This particular article doesn't report fundraising for Brown's chief rival for the Dem nomination, AG Doug Gansler, though it implies that they have similar COH.  Gansler's spokesman also weirdly tries to make a big deal out of the fact that Brown first endorsed Hillary in 2008 while Gansler endorsed Obama.  

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

  •  Utah St Sen: Former legislator looking to reclaim (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    her old seat. http://utahpolicy.com/...
    So context, Holly Richardson was a Republican state senator (from Senate District 57, a safe Republican district, sorry) from 2010 to January 2012 when she resigned to work on fellow state senator Dan Liljenquist's far-right campaign against Orrin Hatch.

     Obviously, that failed (mostly because Liljenquist is uninspiring and kind of a weasel, and because Orrin Hatch prepared for a primary challenge the second Bob Bennett lost), but after her candidate lost, Richardson started a now-popular blog, "Holly on the Hill", an actually pretty reasonable and fun little political blog that doesn't hesitate to side with Democrats when Holly thinks they're right. With the blog and her contacts in the legislature, she's kept in the delegate/public eye enough, and now she's going to run against Rep Brian Greene. I think she's moderated since leaving the Legislature, despite helping Liljenquist's campaign.

    Greene is known for exactly one thing, a hilariously unconstitutional bill that said that federal law enforcement agents could be arrested if they tried to enforce federal gun laws. Utah has constitution lawyers to help the part-time legislature understand the constitutionality of legislation, and their note against the bill was longer than the bill itself.

    It's a GOP vs GOP contest, but really, it's unwinnable for us, so a Richardson win would probably be our best bet for a little bit of moderation.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:22:40 PM PDT

    •  Question (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      Which party is that guy you're volunteering with for Mayor of West Jordan?  I forgot.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:43:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's a Republican (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, KingofSpades

        And a conservative Republican at that. Unfortunately, there's only one Democrat in the race, and despite being a former city council member, the Democrat (Mike Kellermeyer, a conservadem) is really reclusive and doesn't have much of a footprint in West Jordan, no signs, no news about him, not even a place in the 4th of July parade. So he has even less of a chance than Dirk Burton, my candidate. I volunteered for Burton because I know him well, and he's a nice guy that understands if I can't drive around campaigning for him.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 09:50:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Geographic distribution of voters by party (0+ / 0-)

    I know this is a hot topic around here...
    LINK

    •  Frankly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hankmeister

      Both sides of the argument are correct here.

      When you look at the natural distribution of voters, the urban parties are inefficiently distributed such that in the average map there will be a slight bias to the rural party (relative to their proportion in the population, ofcourse). In our system that means that Republicans will have a slight bias.

      The very big problem with analyses like this, however, is that redistricting does not happen in a vacuum. It happens in the context of institutional legal factors (such as S2 and S3/S5 of the Voting Rights Act, compactness and specific contiguity requirements, among others), political factors (such as former control and general partisan strength in the state), and theoretical factors (incumbency advantage, etc.) such that the final resulting map will never hew to that bias. This simple fact completely destroys the utility of the theoretical systematic bias argument.

      What really creates the visibile effects of Democratic partisan packing that we see has absolutely nothing to do with the natural distribution of their voters, but rather has to do with the legal framework that in many ways requires the packing of Democratic ethnic partisans. There are, however, very good normative reasons why we do this. Furthermore, although the Democratic party is hurt to some degree because of this, the Democratic party has, by and large, been absolute fine at the ballot box such that I don't so much care that we lost out on some seats we'd otherwise get (and that's even if we would get them, given the partisan context in many of the areas where we'd be likely to pick up seats in its absence).

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 10:57:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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