I’m sick and tired of nothing getting done in Congress.
I guess that goes without saying around here, doesn’t it? We’ve suffered through years of the Republican leadership quashing gun control measures, immigration reform and the DREAM Act, student loan reform, and countless other vital measures that they deemed not nearly important enough to bother passing. Instead, we have 37 (soon to be 38!) votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Republicans taking the full faith and credit of the country hostage over the debt ceiling, sequestration, and anything else Eric Cantor decides is important on any given day.
We’ve all seen the stats about this Congress. We all know they’re inept, offensive, and criminally awful at doing their job. The only way we’re going to fix the problem is to win back the House and expand our margins in the Senate (or filibuster reform, Senator Reid). In order to do that – win back the House, that is – we’re going to need to expand the map. So, I was thinking, why not start right here in my home district?
This is the first of a three-part series I’m going to write about Virginia’s 10th District, currently held by sixteen-term, 74 year old Congressman Frank Wolf. This first part will discuss the fundamentals of the district and why I think it’s a viable target. The second part will discuss Wolf himself and why I believe he’s vulnerable. In the third part, I will discuss the rumors of Wolf’s retirement and possible Tea Party challenges, and how that would affect the race’s dynamic and possibly even improve our chances of picking up the seat.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at VA-10!
WHY THE 10th DISTRICT SHOULD BE A TARGET
First of all, let’s look at the geography of the district.
As you can see, the 10th District consists of much of the northern neck of Virginia, but also includes areas as far west as Fairfax, McLean, and Reston. In all, the district consists of western Fairfax County, Loudoun County, Clarke County, Frederick County, western Prince William County, and the cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, and Winchester. From a ten-mile perspective, this isn’t ripe Democratic territory – but when you look a little closer, the numbers are quite intriguing.
Demographics
First of all, the 10th District is a microcosm of Virginia's statewide demographics; of Virginia’s eleven Congressional Districts, it most accurately predicts the result of statewide contests. That alone should convince you that the district is worth pursuing, considering we’ve won three Senate races and two Presidential elections in a row in Virginia. With that being said, let’s go a little deeper and figure out why Virginia – and the 10th District – have been trending bluer lately:
One of the most prominent trends throughout Virginia – northern Virginia in particular – is the influx of Hispanic and Latino citizens and voters. The 2000 Census put the 10th District’s white population at 76%, whereas that number was down to 70% in 2010. This is notable because the number is much closer to the solidly blue 8th and 11th Congressional Districts (Jim Moran and Gerry Connolly, respectively) than to the solidly red 6th and 7th Districts:
Total Non-Whites (Census 2010)
VA-7 – 25%
VA-6 – 17%
VA-8 – 37%
VA-11 – 37%
VA-10 – 30%
Percent Hispanic or Latino (Census 2010)
VA-6 – 4%
VA-7 – 5%
VA-8 – 18%
VA-11 – 16%
VA-10 – 13%
I won’t pretend that the 10th District is as ethnically diverse as the 8th and 11th Districts, but it’s getting there. The 10th District has large Latino communities in Manassas and Prince William, in addition to the ethnic diversity of Western Fairfax and Loudoun. Additionally, while those numbers of white voters may seem very high in comparison to Democratic strongholds in New York and California, the white population in this district skews more educated, more affluent, and more moderate than the country at large.
Statewide Democratic Electoral Success in the 10th District
Before we dive into these numbers, it’s always instructive to take a look at the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index of the district – R+2. We have ten Democrats in more Republican districts across the country. This may not sound terribly comforting until you realize that the 2012 Cook PVI had VA-10 at R+4. A two point swing in one cycle may not be unprecedented, but it definitely isn't insignificant. Overall, it appears the 2010 Redistricting efforts of Virginia Republicans were not nearly as effective as they had hoped. Let’s look at the before and after:
2006 US Senate Race
10th Congressional District
Webb – 50%
Allen – 49%
Loudoun County
Webb – 50%
Allen – 49%
The reason I include the numbers from Loudoun County is because Loudoun is, and always has been, the swing county in the 10th District. Before the 2010 Redistricting plan, VA-10 included red Fauquier and Warren Counties, in addition to slightly more of Fairfax and Prince William. Both iterations of the District, however, included the entirety of Loudoun County.
2008 US Senate Race
10th Congressional District
Warner – 62%
Gilmore – 36%
Loudoun County
Warner – 62%
Gilmore – 37%
2008 Presidential Race
10th Congressional District
Obama – 53%
McCain – 46%
Loudoun County
Obama – 54%
McCain – 46%
Each race has its own intricacies, to be sure. For instance, in the 2006 Senate Race, there was a significant number of voters who left Allen off of their ballots due to the “Macaca” scandal, and Warner’s results are blown way out of proportion by the fact that he was one of the most popular governors in recent history and Gilmore was generally an awful candidate. Similarly, for pre-redistricting numbers, I left out the 2009 McDonnell-Deeds race because Deeds ran a completely disastrous race in Northern Virginia. His results were due to a number of factors including an utter lack of a field campaign in the 10th District, not because of the partisan makeup of the district.
So, let’s take a look at the numbers since redistricting:
2012 US Senate Race
10th Congressional District
Kaine – 50%
Allen – 49%
Kaine ended up winning by about 3500 votes in the Congressional District.
2012 Presidential Race
10th Congressional District
Obama – 49%
Romney – 50%
The margin in that race was less than 5000 votes out of over 300k cast. That’s, of course, not exactly the kind of number you would like to see if you’re arguing that the district should be targeted by the netroots and the DCCC; obviously, President Obama had 100% name ID and worked extensively on grassroots and field organizing. However, you also have to consider the fact that the President was (wrongly, but effectively) tied to the struggling economy, whereas an establishment Republican would not be able to similarly attack an upstart Democrat looking to unseat him.
In summary, after the 2010 Redistricting plan, the district was left relatively unchanged – there was a slight trend towards the Republican side in the last two statewide races, but it was hardly a significant shoring up of support. So, the question is, why has this district been red for the past 32 years?
Split Ticket Voters Spell Doom for Wolf’s Challengers
2006 10th District House of Representatives
Frank Wolf – 57%
Judy Feder – 41%
2008 10th District House of Representatives
Frank Wolf – 59%
Judy Feder – 39%
2012 10th District House of Representatives
Frank Wolf – 58%
Kristin Cabral – 39%
There is a very clear disconnect between the statewide results and the success of Wolf’s challengers. There are a number of reasons for this, including many that I will discuss in part two, when we examine Wolf himself. However, it’s actually much simpler than that: Democrats, for whatever reason, have tended to split their ticket in the 10th District.
Looking closer at the numbers:
In 2006, Wolf overperformed Jim Webb by 7 percent and his fellow Republican George Allen by 8 percent in Loudoun County alone. That is, of course, a massive vote swing. When you look at the raw vote numbers, it becomes even clearer: Feder lost by over 13k votes in Loudoun County and underperformed Jim Webb by over 7000 votes. The cause wasn’t undervote; the total undervote between the Senate and House races was less than 200. The cause was clearly ticket splitting. It would, of course, be unreasonable to expect that every split ticket voter would cast ballots for a strong Democrat, so simply subtracting 7000 votes from Wolf and adding 7000 to Feder’s total would be unrealistically optimistic. However, I don’t believe it would be unrealistic to say that if there is a strong Democrat running in this district, three-quarters of those splitters would vote for the Democrat. Going by that standard, Wolf would still win the 2006 race in Loudoun County, albeit by less than a thousand votes.
In 2008, the results are more interesting. Of course, 2008 being a Presidential election (and one with unprecedented turnout), the numbers are different. Feder had 52k votes in Loudoun County, whereas President Obama carried over 74k. Using the same three quarters standard, Feder would defeat Wolf handily, 68.5k to 63.5k. There are more remaining voters in Democratic-heavy Fairfax and Manassas than in Republican strongholds of Clarke and Frederick. Wolf loses in this election.
2012 is quite interesting as well. Kristin Cabral was a poor fundraiser and a political novice; she had no support from the national Democratic Party and little help either with organizing or with messaging. She underperformed Tim Kaine by over 44k votes district-wide! If those splitters stay home, Wolf loses the District. If she gets three quarters of the ticket splitters to stay home, she loses very narrowly – 51-48. This is not some sort of a landslide, and this is not a deep red district – this is a district with good fundamentals that we have ignored for far too long and we have allowed a Republican institution to just skate by without serious opposition.
CONCLUSION
Frank Wolf is, somehow, seen as one of the safest Republicans in the nation. He has been in office since 1980 and has been seriously challenged precisely once. If we have any serious hope of taking back the House in 2014, we are going to need to field serious candidates in purple districts – and I think I’ve pretty effectively made the case that VA-10 is a purple district.
Check out part two on Friday, where I explore why Frank Wolf isn’t nearly as strong as he seems.
Sources: Census 2000 Data - http://www.census.gov/...
Census 2010 Data - http://factfinder2.census.gov/...
Election 2006 Data - http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/...
Election 2008 Data - https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/...
Election 2010 Data - https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/...
Election 2012 Data - https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/...