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Burning and sinking word job in water surface over white as a result of the financial crisis.
If you're paying attention, you know the damage sequestration has caused, from kids kicked out of Head Start and Head start teachers losing their jobs to waitlists for Meals on Wheels to court delays and a weakened justice system. But once Congress fixed it so business travelers wouldn't face big delays in airports, there hasn't been a marquee item, a single huge number that would draw your eye even if you weren't facing a direct cut yourself. Now there is: 1.6 million.

The Congressional Budget Office says that keeping sequester cuts through 2014 would cost the economy as many as 1.6 million jobs. If Congress repeals sequestration, the economy could add between 300,000 and 1.6 million jobs, with around 900,000 being the most likely number. The CBO looked into this at the request of Rep. Chris Van Hollen, as Democrats prepare another push to fix this thing:

House appropriators are producing 12 annual bills with an overall spending level of $967 billion. That’s $91 billion less than the bill being worked on in the Senate, where Democrats are crafting bills under the assumption sequestration is stopped. The gulf between the chambers on spending could lead to a government shutdown Oct. 1. [...]

“This kind of information should be something that shakes people up a little bit and forces them to recognize the human toll,” Van Hollen said of the CBO report.

He noted he has tried seven times since the sequester began to get a vote on a replacement bill with farm subsidy cuts and tax increases.

But Republicans remain determined to keep the massive, indiscriminate cuts in place—even the ones they say they don't like—in order to avoid closing some corporate tax loopholes or taxing hedge fund billionaires a little more. Now, as the next big fight approaches, that determination comes with a big number representing the jobs that will be lost if Republicans keep getting their way.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Labor on Thu Jul 25, 2013 at 01:25 PM PDT.

Also republished by In Support of Labor and Unions and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Well obvioulsy, Republicans will double (10+ / 0-)

    down on it and blame Obamacare for a loss of 3.2 million.

    Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

    by TomP on Thu Jul 25, 2013 at 01:29:20 PM PDT

  •  Unfortunately, this was a game of chicken between (12+ / 0-)

    the two parties where the WH misjudged the Republicans.

    Later in the book, Woodward described Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's terrified reaction when White House chief of staff Jack Lew and director of legislative affairs Rob Nabors told him about the idea of sequestration:

    “We have an idea for the trigger,” Lew said.

    “What’s the idea?” Reid asked skeptically. “Sequestration.”

    Reid bent down and put his head between his knees, almost as if he were going to throw up or was having a heart attack. He sat back up and looked at the ceiling. “A couple of weeks ago,” he said, “my staff said to me that there is one more possibile [sic]” enforcement mechanism: sequestration. He said he told them, “Get the hell out of here. That’s insane. The White House surely will come up with a plan that will save the day. And you come to me with sequestration?”

    http://www.businessinsider.com/...
    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/...

    Now what's the plan to end it?
    •  With the economy on a knife edge (4+ / 0-)

      what will it take to send the US economy into a double dip recession?

      .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Thu Jul 25, 2013 at 02:25:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Probably not... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        divineorder, RustyBrown

        The US economy benefits because of changes/weaknesses in other major economies. The EU will be struggling with austerity more extreme than here, and China is not expected to continue to grow at the same rate - in fact, China is starting to reverse its monetary policy and is allowing its currency to rise, favoring US exports. So there are some externalities that will probably keep this from having a massive enough effect to return to recession.

        This is more about ensuring that growth is so slow that for most people it feels like stagnation or recession - which in a way, it is.. since only the wealthy will continue to get wealthier. The GOP benefits by sequestration because they want the economy stagnant and people deeply unhappy, because they need these conditions to continue to gain in the Senate and hold in the House.  And they want to continue to drum up anger and resentment at the government, because they wish to dismantle the regulatory framework and social safety net.  So as so many have already mentioned, breaking government helps them do this. Its cynical, but it is the GOP.

        “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

        by ivorybill on Thu Jul 25, 2013 at 04:02:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But its not just the GOP, is it.... (0+ / 0-)

          Move Single Payer Forward? Join 18,000 Doctors of PNHP and 185,000 member National Nurses United

          by divineorder on Thu Jul 25, 2013 at 04:22:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think of it this way (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            divineorder

            The GOP wants to dismantle the government's capacity to regulate, and undermine the people's faith in the social safety net.  So for them sequestration is a political benefit.

            The Democrats have bought into the austerity framing and went ahead with sequestration because they feared the messaging of the right if they did not.  They also felt that the GOP ultimately would see the value in trying to govern the country and would relent.

            Yes, both were complicit. The GOP, however, benefits.

            “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

            by ivorybill on Thu Jul 25, 2013 at 04:33:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  What double dip? (0+ / 0-)

        The statistics that are used to determine if we are in recession or not only measure the performance of the economy for the rich. Just like we are enjoying low inflation, unless you work for a living, and have most of your paycheck eaten up by rent, energy, and food. As far as I'm concerned, things are a little better than they were when Obama was elected, but the Bush depression has not ended, it only showed improvement until the sequestration started. The jobs market suchs, especially when you are mid-career and being interviewed by people a decade younger most of the time.

        Workers of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your shackles. It is by the picket line and direct action that true freedom will be won, not by electing people who promise to screw us less than the other guy.

        by rhonan on Thu Jul 25, 2013 at 08:21:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Meh, but many of the job losses (9+ / 0-)

    will be in frivolous areas like biomedical research.

    Isn't that a small price to pay for the 1%er's to maintain their wealth?

  •  Who cares? WE GOTTA STOP OBAMACARE! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    puakev, cactusgal, Matt Z

    /snark

    Along with all the positives, the phrase "where the WH misjudged the Republicans" will be part of this administration's epitaph.

    So, Democratic candidates-to-be, how will we/you fight this next year and in 2016 so that we never underestimate those bastards again?

  •  At the current job growth level of 200,000 ... (9+ / 0-)

    ...a month, that means the sequester could kill as many as half the new jobs that would otherwise be created.

    Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

    by Meteor Blades on Thu Jul 25, 2013 at 01:43:47 PM PDT

  •  Not exactly news, but needs eyes, TnR (3+ / 0-)

    MB wrote job losses of 300-750k in May, I was chided for thinking 85 billion - using a 1.8 multiplier means 1.5 million jobs.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    No one predicted that kind of job loss? Bah, the CBO did in Feb.
    http://articles.washingtonpost.com/...

    Predictions ranged from 750k to 2 million jobs lost.
    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Thanks Laura for keeping this out front.

    .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

    by Roger Fox on Thu Jul 25, 2013 at 02:22:34 PM PDT

  •  I personally know three people who have lost jobs (5+ / 0-)

    ...due to the sequester.

  •  No problem because we can (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    divineorder

    blame it on the Republicans and worrying about who has jobs or not is white privilege because you know minorities deal with high unemployment all the time or some such nonsense. When's tee time?

    SECURITY, because ticking time bomb mushroom cloud of terror!!
    Shop Kos Katalogue

    by Words In Action on Thu Jul 25, 2013 at 03:32:01 PM PDT

  •  Is the sequester so onerous (0+ / 0-)

    That you would be willing to make concessions to the Republicans to repeal it?  If so, then what?

  •  Get all those GOP defeated for re-election in 2014 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541

    PLEASE.  I don't care what it takes.

  •  Huge Huge win for the GOP and their agenda (0+ / 0-)

    #republicanbumrush

    from kids kicked out of Head Start and Head start teachers losing their jobs to waitlists for Meals on Wheels to court delays and a weakened justice system.
    So much win for the GOP.

    Repubs have cuts they don't like?

    Oh yeah - the airline bit: Which, again, shows you just how fast those assholes can fix something.

    The graphic shows jobs on fire.....they are burning down our economy, I suppose it is still wrong to even suggest........  nope,,,,,,.too soon to make that suggestion

    Americans still want to maintain decorum so they'll  need to suffer a whole lot more before they get it.

    Suffering it is!

  •  Did anyone hear Tom Cole today? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z

    He was on NPR during a fluff piece. Sickening.

    Libertarianism is something that most people grow out of, not unlike, say, hay fever or asthma. Bob Johnson

    by randallt on Thu Jul 25, 2013 at 03:49:43 PM PDT

  •  Apportioning blame (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    divineorder, effete snob, Ramoth

    Unfortunately, we can't only blame Republicans for sequestration.  Sequestration as a concept was designed by Jack Lew back in July 2011 during the debt ceiling negotiations which shouldn't even have happened in the first place. The administration wanted to force both parties to make a deal that cuts SS and Medicare and lightly raises taxes on the rich and thought sequestration could blackmail Democrats into screwing over seniors and future generations and Republicans into turning against their donors.

    The Budget Control Act of 2011, which imposed cuts of its own, also wrote the sequestration threat into law.  Majorities of Senate Dems, Senate Repubs, and House Repubs voted for it.  House Dems split evenly.  The roll call vote is here: http://www.govtrack.us/...

    Then, in November 2011, you had the anti-democratic supercommittee, which was supposed to come up with a deficit deal a la Simpson-Bowles. It failed to pass anything, and Obama threatened to veto any effort to repeal the potential automatic cuts: http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    Obama has always insisted on cuts to Social Security and Medicare in his sequestration replacement plans. The plan featured on the White House website shifts cuts from the Pentagon onto Social Security because, apparently, the president thinks that's why people re-elected him.  (As a past OFA organizing fellow back from the campaign, I can readily note how wrong he is.)

    Back in February, the Progressive Caucus proposed their replacement, called the Balancing Act, that would guarantee that the rounds of deficit reduction had equal cuts and revenue---not the cut-heavy scheme preferred by everyone else. The CPC increased taxes on high earners, cut tax loopholes on corporations, and cut Pentagon spending while investing some of the gained revenue in jobs.  The Senate Dems had a plan that was half cuts (defense and farm subsidies) and half tax increases (Buffett rule).  That failed to break a filibuster.  

    Currently, only 36 House Democrats support full repeal of sequestration, co-sponsoring the legislation John Conyers introduced earlier this year.  Their strategy is to repeal AND NOT REPLACE: http://www.govtrack.us/....  And there the one's on solid ground here.

  •  Democrats must take over the House in 2014, get (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    enemy of the people, Matt Z

    rid of more, if not all GOP Senators in the Senate and the first vote that is taken in boht houses is to raise the tax rates on the super rich.  The rest is just interesting political drama.

  •  sequestration was Obama's idea (and remains so) (0+ / 0-)

    Sequestration is simply not the Republicans' fault; it was entirely Obama's idea as an aid to pushing through entitlement cuts along the Bowles-Simpson lines.  It was not obvious at the time that the Republicans wouldn't accept his Grand Bargain, but it was pretty clear that they would be happy with the sequestration alternative.  And since sequestration began, Obama has opposed any effort to fix the damage through the budget, except for the air controllers. I'm afraid the damage is permanent unless the next president is a Democrat.

  •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

    but only if they are human, not gibbering baboons. “This kind of information should be something that shakes people up a little bit and forces them to recognize the human toll,”

  •  What just amazes me the most (0+ / 0-)

    about the sequester is that this is really hurting federal employees, but you don't hear about it AT ALL in the mainstream media.  It's like we don't even exist to most of the country.  

    •  Not just federal employees... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ramoth

      I'd really love to see a thorough analysis of how many "regular" jobs are impacted -- e.g. entities that receive money from the government and employ people; or businesses that have customers who receive welfare. I dare you to go to your local grocery store or pharmacy and ask what percentage of their gross receipts come from, say, Medicare or Medicaid? Or SNAP? Or ask your utility company how much of their income is from programs like HEAP?

      And (veering a little off topic here...okay, maybe a lot) don't get me started on regulations! The tired old trope that government regulations kill jobs. What about asbestos abatement? An entire industry created by government regs! Or your local mechanic -- how much does he get from doing mandatory safety and emissions inspections. And how about tax preparers? And accountants? And lawyers? For every job that regulations "kill," I bet I can name even more that are created by government regulations. Seriously, someone has to call b---s---t on these a--h-les.

      •  All great points, Couchsachraga. (0+ / 0-)

        And sadly, I don't think I've ever heard even Democrats make your last point about govt. regulations CREATING jobs.  

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