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NYC Public Advocate Bill de Blasio of Brooklyn
Per TPM, the latest Quinnipiac poll of the NYC Democratic Primary for Mayor shows Anthony Weiner dropping from 1st to 4th in a week, and Public Advocate Bill de Blasio registering substantial gains pushing him into 2nd place:
A new Qunnipiac poll of the Democratic primary in the New York City mayoral election released Monday afternoon shows Anthony Weiner moving from frontrunner to last place among the major candidates after dropping 10 points in the wake of his sexting scandal.

Weiner was in first place with 26 percent in the last Quinnipiac poll, which was conducted just before the scandal spent days in the headlines. The new poll Monday showed Weiner in fourth place with 16 percent compared to 27 percent for City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, 21 percent for Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, and 20 percent for former Comptroller Bill Thompson.

While Bill Thompson is unchanged in his level up support, de Blasio has surged six points in a week.

Everyone here knows de Blasio has my full endorsement and I have been predicting his substantial on the ground organization (he's been endorsed by powerhouse union SEIU 1199) will vault him into the runoff with Quinn. This poll bears that out. If de Blasio can get to the runoff, this election will be a damn good one between the centrist Quinn and the progressive de Blasio. It is also good timing for de Blasio to begin to make his name as NYC voters will begin tuning in just after Labor Day. I suspect de Blasio will make a big splash at Harlem Week and the West Indian Day Parade to begin to eat into support in black precincts that had been trending Weiner.

Of course, one cannot count out perennial milquetoast Bill Thompson. Thompson also has substantial Democratic support and came surprisingly close to beating Mike Bloomberg's money despite being basically broke in 2009. If Thompson clears it into the runoff, I suspect the race to get ugly, quickly.

Originally posted to Triple-B in the Building on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 01:58 PM PDT.

Also republished by New York City.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I like Blasio, and will be voting (12+ / 0-)

    for him in the primary.

    I talk in my campaign about “the tale of two cities;” in some ways it’s the sharpest on policing. In white neighborhoods, a law-abiding white teenager will walk down his street unaccosted, and every family knows it. A law-abiding black teenager has a good chance of being stopped and frisked. I emphasize “law-abiding.” Parents and grandparents have worked hard to raise their children right, and then they’re rewarded by men in uniform and women in uniform treating their children like they’re suspects.

    It's *Gandhi*, not Ghandi

    by poco on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 02:08:32 PM PDT

  •  Quinn seems to have a ceiling of sorts (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    poco, boatjones, TomP, NYFM, rubyr, Eric Nelson

    She isn't picking up meaningful support in the wake of his impending demise. Though this is still early fallout and more polling will shed more light. Looks like from here on out we will see a couple of polls each week.

    My question is this: does Liu look at all of this and figure it's just not in the cards for him, bow out and side with one of the "Not Quinns" prior to the Primary?

    When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 02:09:15 PM PDT

    •  Great question. (7+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      poco, randomfacts, NYFM, jgnyc, jj32, rubyr, Portlaw

      I like Liu. I really do like the guy a lot. Six years ago I told him if he wanted to be Mayor, i'd work for him. Love the guy...great family. Absolutely solid on the issues. Whip smart.

      I suspect though that with his ethics problems he's having a hard time raising money. You aren't seeing any of him outside of his Queens base. He's just not moving in the polls, and that's a shame because I think he'd be a damn good Mayor.

    •  Quinn Just Too High Strung (5+ / 0-)

      My problem with Quinn is summed up with her recent reaction to the fainting intern.  It was obviously heat related and not life threatening.  To go ballistic all the way to Ray Kelly over the ambulance deciding it was not an urgent event was an over reaction to say the least.  

      New York City has a lot of moving parts and plenty of windmills to tilt at if one were to choose to do so.  We need a mayor with enough perspective to not go to 11 at every drop of a hat.  I get tired just thinking about the constant sense of crisis she'd precipitate for the next 4 years.  I worked with someone like that once and life's just too short.  No thanks.  Bill's a good, honest guy with a level head.  That's my choice.

  •  Well, well, well. (4+ / 0-)

    Weiner appears to be shrinking - I mean sinking fast.

    Warren/3-D Print of Warren in 2016!

    by dov12348 on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 02:09:37 PM PDT

  •  I'm going with Thompson (0+ / 0-)

    In the primary.  Of course that's today.  In a run off between Quinn and deBlasio I would go with Quinn.  Ugh.

  •  Looks like it's time for Weiner (4+ / 0-)

    to pull out.

    "This ain't no party, this ain't no disco, this ain't no foolin' around..."

    by cgvjelly on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 02:24:47 PM PDT

  •  Weiner forgot Rule #1 of politics (5+ / 0-)

    Before you announce, do oppo research on YOURSELF to see if there's even a point, rather than listen to your Inner (or outer) Weiner.

    I saw de Blasio in Flushing Meadows a few weeks back. He had some sort of presser on the soccer stadium issue, and came out in favor of spending money on park redevelopment instead I think.

    As anyone who's ever been to Flushing Meadows, it's one of the jewels of the park system but sorely in need of revitalization, from the World's Fair Pavilion to new parking lots to playgrounds to a repaved bike path around Meadow Pond to better car and bike access. Our parks are our sanity.

    "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

    by kovie on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 02:27:30 PM PDT

    •  Our parks have deteriorated substantially (6+ / 0-)

      under Bloomberg. Quite frankly Giuliani was good on parks. Bloomberg doesn't give a shit. If it isn't in Manhattan, he just doesn't care.

      •  Well, I live in Manhattan and he has destroyed (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rubyr, poco

        Neighborhoods all over the place.  ReaL estate rules.

        •  Hugely destroyed. He only loves Manhattan in (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          poco, Portlaw, PrahaPartizan

          regard to lining his rich cronies pockets, he does not love the common people and he has absolutely NO respect for neighborhoods and the history of the borough. The little man likes to control every little thing with no regard whatsoever to what his actions are doing to the culture and flavor of the city.

          "Southern nights have you ever felt a southern night?" Allen Toussaint ~~Remember the Gulf of Mexico~~

          by rubyr on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 03:16:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Meanwhile Central Park is more privatized (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rubyr, poco, Portlaw, brooklynbadboy, Chi

        as is Bryant Park and any other city park that corporate interests set their sights and greedy hands upon.
        I can never express to people how enraged I get thinking about how the Central Park Conservancy, with Bloomberg's full support, kept NY'ers from assembling on OUR Great Lawn to protest the foul Bush and his GOP convention in 2004.  That Quinn could ever support Bloomberg after that effrontery and allow him a third term is what completely disqualifies her for me.
        But the Central Park Conservancy represents the kind of insidious privatization that is limiting the public from enjoying its very own assets.

      •  It's not just the parks (0+ / 0-)

        Anything having to do with working and middle class let alone poverty-level NY has been neglected. The subway station in Queens that I used to take to HS over 30 years ago hasn't had a renovation or major cleaning since then. I think I still recognize some of the gum marks on the platform. Same for the stations I used in Manhattan to get to my school. Sidewalks are cracked everywhere, major streets nearly unusable due to potholes, trunks and warping, garbage everywhere. It's pretty much if you're not rich like him, then fuck you.

        I left NYC for the west coast just as his first term started and got back a year and change before it's ending. Can't say that I missed being here for most of it. Seattle has a fantastic park system and compared to NYC is clean and well-kept and very livable if you're not rich. Of course, it's MUCH smaller and doesn't have any good sports franchises. Food & beer's good though.

        "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

        by kovie on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 04:51:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Where's Queens? (0+ / 0-)

        Isn't that Bloomberg's retort?  We did see him on NY1 news the other day in Queens for some event and it just stunned my spouse and me.  We weren't sure that he even knew where Queens was located except as geography to fly over with his helicopter when he heads to Bermuda for the weekend.

        "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

        by PrahaPartizan on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 09:41:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I don't think "milqutoast" fits Thompson (0+ / 0-)

    Just because Thompson is quiet and self-possessed, that doesn't make him a "milquetoast" but. . . . Is there something I've been missing?

    Thank you for this good news diary.

  •  Why is Debasio better than (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Thompson?  Just do not know either way.  I'm not in NYC.  Is Debasio most liberal?  Will he defeat R candidate?  

    Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

    by TomP on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 02:29:46 PM PDT

    •  I suggest you click the above link to the Salon (7+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      poco, PinHole, Portlaw, NYFM, rubyr, TomP, Chi

      interview with Joan Walsh. Read it through and you'll get pretty clearly why I support de Blasio.

      Thompson got on my shit list with the rather nasty way he treated his wife during his divorce. Not to mention the guy is just totally malleable on policy. I have no doubt that once he got into the Mayor's office, he's going to make a beeline for the Park Avenue crowd. But, he'd be better than Quinn...I guess. They're about the same in my view.

      Yes, I think any of these guys, except Weiner, will easily beat whomever the GOP nominates. They don't have a big name like Giuliani or Bloomberg this time.

    •  Just a sample Tom: (8+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      poco, PinHole, jgnyc, Portlaw, NYFM, rubyr, TomP, Albanius
      People are talking lately about how Democrats have become one big happy family on social issues – gay rights, women’s rights, even to some extent abortion, even guns at least in the blue states — but we’re divided on economic issues.  Do you see that party split: great on cultural issues, but on economic issues, a lot of Democrats have become more like Republicans?

      I couldn’t agree with your analysis more. It is a glorious thing, in New York and to some extent the country, that we have moved so profoundly forward, particularly on gay rights, less so on choice and guns, although here, in the city, we’re fantastic on both. In the city of New York there’s a consensus that was not true not so long ago. On economics, though, we have the farthest thing from it. Sharp, sharp divisions. Twenty years of governments in this city that were explicitly not interested in reaching people in need, dealing with the growing crisis of reduced wages and benefits or lack of affordable housing.

      This election, post economic crisis, post-Occupy, post-2012, where Obama wins partly by going after Bain Capital: economic issues matter in a way social and cultural issues don’t here. This is an election about economic fairness. There is not a consensus in this town about that issue. Bloomberg’s presence looms large and negatively. But even among Democrats: It’s clear Quinn wants to continue the Bloomberg legacy. It’s clear Thompson is trying to set himself up as a moderate. I’ve proposed a tax on the wealthy for preschool and after-school programs; Quinn and Thompson opposed that, as did Bloomberg. Quinn and Thompson are both very close to the real estate industry. I think people want a very different approach. They want to see the city respond to their suffering. I think this is the faultline of this election, I think the debate for years to come will be around economic fairness, and so far the lack of city responses to the challenges. And I think that’s gonna change our politics profoundly.

      I think what is being missed in the whole discussion in this election — when we finally get back to discussing issues rather than one couple — is everywhere I go I find people on the street disgusted. There is a rawness, an anger in the city I have not seen since I started working in New York public life in 1989. There is a sense of dislocation, a sense of options becoming more and more limited, and what people are saying to me is the decline of wages and benefits, the decline of the middle class, the huge increase of housing costs, it’s all happening so quickly, and they see no response. Now, we don’t see a response in Washington…

      That's the kind of talk I like to hear.
  •  It's basically a de Blasio vs. Quinn match (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    poco, Portlaw, rubyr, NYFM

    Bill Thompson seems to have plateaued at 20%, because his numbers haven't been inflated with fleeing Weiner supporters. His biggest financial  backer is Al D'Amato, which could just be old school machine politics more than anything else.

    Even though he can't win, Weiner is still dangerous, because 16% of the primary voters are strong for him. WHEN he drops out, they can be directed to one candidate over the other. Given that the Clinton network pulled the pin on him today, he could drop out in support of the Clinton favorite in order to stay "inside".

    De Blasio and Quinn now have a tight rope act to walk, because they have to retain their base, but also craft a message that convinces enough Thompson AND Weiner supporters to switch allegiances.

    Whoever can do that is the next Mayor of NYC.

    I've seen some hardboiled eggs in my time, but you're about twenty minutes

    by harrylimelives on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 02:41:48 PM PDT

    •  Weiner should not drop out. (0+ / 0-)

      I agree with Ari Melber, let the voters decide. Even Bob Scheifer, who is not a resident of NYC, yesterday demanded that Weiner drop out. If the establishment is against him, he has my vote. The people that I know are still supporting him.

      •  He is very well within his rights to stay in (0+ / 0-)

        But, he's also a laughing stock, and whatever issues he feels strongly about become marginalized the moment he supports them. Voters were willing forgive him, but he has, through his own actions, become a toxic and unfixable brand. Anything he gets close to will become just as toxic.

        It's a primary, and the voters will sort it out, but considering that there hasn't been a Democratic Mayor of the largest Democratic city in the US since 1993, it would be nice if we could get through the nominating process without someone totally radioactive sucking up all the oxygen from the actual issues people are concerned about.

        I've seen some hardboiled eggs in my time, but you're about twenty minutes

        by harrylimelives on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 06:59:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not so long ago he said F*ck the bike paths (0+ / 0-)

          Now that the CitiBikes are such a raging success he is trying to walk that back, sorta.  Saying that CitiBikes need to be expanded into the outer boroughs (which they do) while also backing programs to make it easier to park and also cutting back on bike lanes.  

          Another words, the lowest common denominator on just about everything.

  •  Prefer Liu but will go with DeBlasio (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rubyr, poco, NYFM

    Curious if the media can freeze DeBlasio out now. Quinn vs Thompson would be a nightmare and Bloomberg wins either way as both are part of his machine. It's not a conspiracy, they just think alike. (with Quinn there may have actually been a deal ...)

    If you didn't like the news today, go out and make some of your own.

    by jgnyc on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 03:05:35 PM PDT

    •  I think she thought there was a deal and then (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      poco, Portlaw

      he betrayed her when he seemed to want Ray Kelly to run. ha ha ha

      Lucky for us, Ray Kelly, declined.

      "Southern nights have you ever felt a southern night?" Allen Toussaint ~~Remember the Gulf of Mexico~~

      by rubyr on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 03:21:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Mike's a single borough mayor. We need all five. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rubyr, poco

    Bloomberg, as mentioned up thread, only thinks of Manhattan. As a Manhattan native and current resident he's done some really nice structural stuff to midtown that won't be undone. The Broadway shopping mall is a real improvement over the traffic shootout of decades past. But if Bloomberg has done anything good for the rest of the city I've missed it. I don't trust Thompson or Quinn (or Carlos Danger for that matter) to step away from Bloomberg's city-of-international-wealth-and-capital focus.

    DeBlasio or Liu and DeBlasio seems to be getting a bump.

    If Daily Kos can put a big Weiner head shot on the front page how about putting a real progressives head shot on the front page?

    If you didn't like the news today, go out and make some of your own.

    by jgnyc on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 03:11:52 PM PDT

    •  He's ruined many Manhattan neighborhoods. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      •  details? (0+ / 0-)

        If you didn't like the news today, go out and make some of your own.

        by jgnyc on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 03:55:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Rents are impossibly high and the Working and (0+ / 0-)

          Middle classes are being forced out. In additiOn, all the mom and pop stores on the cross streets and avenues are gone, they can"t pay the rents. only big chains can.   The flavor is gone. Also blocks are being torn down and luxury apartments wii replace low rent ones. It has become a place only for the rich.

          •  this has been going on since 1992 (0+ / 0-)

            Bloomberg certainly didn't try to arrest any of it but the theme parking of Manhattan has been going on since the early 90s. There were never policies in NYC to protect mom and pops. I'd be all for commercial zoning regulation but blaming the lack of it on Bloomberg doesn't hold water. You could as easily blame Koch or Rudy (who I despise). The changes you describe don't have to do with policies from the mayors office.

            Smoking ban, bike lanes, pedestrian malls, CitiBikes. All good. Manhattan has never been this bike friendly or if it was it was before my time and I'm old.

            > Also blocks are being torn down and luxury apartments wii replace low rent ones.

            Bloomberg certainly didn't lead the fight for affordable housing in Manhattan unlike ... maybe LaGuardia? The 70s and early 80s were nasty. Flavor? Sure. But I don't miss it.

            Every 20 years there's a whole new New York City. It's been like that since evacuation day. I've lived through a few.

            If you didn't like the news today, go out and make some of your own.

            by jgnyc on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 04:40:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  in case you're going to bring it up (0+ / 0-)

              Commercial rent control was last proposed in 2009(? I think) and Quinn wouldn't bring it to vote as she thought it wouldn't get through the courts. I thought that bill was flawed but if you want to see the long hand of Bloomberg here you're welcome to. But ... by 2009 the malling of Manhattan bellow say 100th street was pretty far along. It also came up IIRC in the 80s but didn't get a vote.

              Commercial rent controls could be a good idea. Requiring really long leases could be a plus. I'm not a Bloomberg fan but blaming him for not going against Manhattans real estate interests is kind of far fetched.

              At some point we may get a progressive Mayor. Maybe DeBlasio or Liu.

              If you didn't like the news today, go out and make some of your own.

              by jgnyc on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 04:59:29 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  It's too bad they didnt poll a (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rubyr, poco, brooklynbadboy, Eric Nelson

    Quinn/DeBlasio runoff. Thompson leads Quinn 50-40 in a runoff. Last week's poll showed Quinn leading Weiner by only two in a runoff. The feeling with that poll seemed to be Quinn's only chance was to hope Weiner made the runoff.

    Would have been good to see a Quinn vs. DeBlasio to see if that is true.

    And there is one line in that Quinnipiac poll write up that sums up Weiner's problems:

    Weiner's behavior is a legitimate issue in the mayoral campaign, voters say 65 - 34 percent.

    Brutal. Dont see how he can change something like that, especially in only a little over a month's time.  

  •  Here is another reason I will not vote (0+ / 0-)

    for Bill deBlasio.  He opposes the Gowanus Canal being super funded despite the support of the majority of his constituents.  Too many people have worked too long on this for him to be able to throw a monkey wrench into the clean up and obstruct the process.  He is also responsible for what has essentially become a spot rezoning for Toll Brothers luxury condos on the Gowanus Canal.  He thinks it is perfectly safe for families to live there.

    He is not what he seems.  He talks a good game.  But whatever....  

    •  In This Case, Who Cares (0+ / 0-)

      If Toll Brothers wants to build luxury condos to sell to sheep along one of the worst polluted waterways in the world without superfund remediation, I say let them.  The people buying those condos would have the resources available to investigate the situation and deserve whatever they get.  I'm curious though on how they're going to be building high-rise structures on that spongy oil-soaked ground around the Gowanus Canal though.  Maybe they figure they'll make money off the squeazings.

      The sights along the Gowanus Canal are absolutely stunning though.  Several years ago, my spouse and I took a wrong turn and wound up in an industrial park.  One of the former factories was being demolished - from the inside out.  It was dusk and the outside of the building was not it, although the inside looked the surface of the sun.  The building had some sort of steam or vapor system streaming visible clouds of vapor along the sides of the building while inside the building one could glimpse this steamshovel biting huge chunks of concrete out of the floor of the building.  It reminded one of scenes from "Blade Runner."

      "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

      by PrahaPartizan on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 09:57:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Weiner is who and what he has always been. (0+ / 0-)

    Obviously I don't have a dog in this race, and even though I think Weiner might just end his campaign soon, there is a part of me that hopes he wins.

    I really don't care if a politician lies about his private behavior so long as it doesn't involve children, coercion, or violence. I actually expect most people to lie about any behavior many may see as deviant. I didn't get mad at Bill Clinton and I'm not mad now. Unlike with Clinton, I am not at all surprised that Weiner is a serial peen show'er.

    I guess I'm just jaded, perhaps because I spend far too much time on Reddit, but it seems that many folks have exhibitionist tendencies. I guess the larger public hasn't yet become aware, but I have to laugh when I hear Tweety declare that he couldn't imagine a woman showing herself online and his guests agreeing with him.

    At least New Yorkers don't have a boring race taking place.

    The politicians may be bought, and the system corrupt, but it is our duty to fix these things.

    by sebastianguy99 on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 03:58:43 PM PDT

    •  Not Sure It Doesn't Involve Children (0+ / 0-)

      Right now, we don't know if it might involve children (at least minors).  Quite possibly even Weiner doesn't know.  He stated that he had texted a handful, no more than 10 according to his memory, but he wasn't sure about what might be considered offensive to some.  That implies more might exist out in the cloud.  If he can't provide or refuses to provide a definitive, final and total listing of all of the texts he sent out, then how does anyone put all of this behind them.  That's what's killing his campaign and likely led to his campaign manager's resignation.  Weiner can't give a clean "NO!" to the question, "Is there any more out there, Anthony?"

      "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

      by PrahaPartizan on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 10:02:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well I still do not see any proof. Until I see (0+ / 0-)

        ...such proof, I'm not going to promote baseless concerns. We know the guy is an exhibitionist who lied about it to the public and, at some point, his wife. Now people want exquisite details, a listing of every text. That sounds more to me like "sheet-smelling" as Bill Clinton put it back during the Lewinsky ordeal. Too bad people can't get this interested in stop-and-frisk and some other

        His wife has forgiven him and now it is up to the voters to decide his political faith. And I see know good reason why someone would need to read more text messages or view more pictures of the guy to make up her/his mind.

        The politicians may be bought, and the system corrupt, but it is our duty to fix these things.

        by sebastianguy99 on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 11:12:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  DeBlasio proud to stand with Bloomberg (0+ / 0-)

    Another side.

    This is much clearer than I could explain courtesy of Sal Albanese.  So, no. I'm not voting for DeBlasio.  Not in a general election either.  

  •  Hizzoner Joe Lhota (0+ / 0-)

    Given the fractous primary this is turning into, it would appear that all NYC residents had better learn how to spell Lhota's last name, because they'll be seeing a lot of it during the next four years.

    "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

    by PrahaPartizan on Mon Jul 29, 2013 at 10:04:43 PM PDT

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