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Leading Off:
• AR-Sen, AR-04: An unnamed source tells the AP that freshman Rep. Tom Cotton, the GOP establishment's choice to take on Sen. Mark Pryor next year, will announce a bid for Senate next week. Talk Business speculates it could happen on Aug. 6, when Cotton is hosting a "campaign dinner" in the town of Dardanelle. Assuming this pans out (and the DSCC is certainly acting like it will), Cotton's entry would lock this race in as a tossup—though one-term members of the House don't have a good track record when it comes to seeking a promotion to the Senate.
But if Cotton does forge ahead, his 4th District seat ought to see plenty of action, perhaps on both sides. Though Barack Obama lost this district by a brutal 62-36 margin the seat was held for many years by Democrat Mike Ross, who is now running for governor, and it still has some ancestrally Democratic ties. That means a conservative Democrat in Ross's mold could potentially have a shot, especially since Obama won't be at the top of the ticket this time, though it would certainly be a long one.
So who could run? On the Democratic side, Roll Call's Emily Cahn calls state Rep. Jeff Wardlaw, who says he is looking at the race, "a top candidate." State Sen. Bobby Pierce previously expressed interest as well. Cahn also mentions University of Arkansas Community College Chancellor Chris Thomason and U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge as possibilities.
For the GOP, state House Majority Leader Bruce Westerman and Lt. Gov. Mark Darr both sound likely to go for it, and two-time candidate Beth Anne Rankin might join the race, too. Given the opportunity a seat like this represents, though, it wouldn't be surprising if other Republicans got in as well.
Senate:
• MI-Sen: I'd say this is a bit unexpected. Back in April, GOP Rep. Dave Camp said he was "not taking a serious look" at Michigan's open Senate seat because, as chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, he was "committed to tax reform" and wanted to stay on the job to make it a reality. Now, though, Camp has changed his mind, saying he's talked to Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and that he's considering the race "very carefully and thoughtfully."
One motivating factor for Camp may be that, under his party's own rules, he'll have to step down from Ways and Means at the end of this term. And it also seems that national Republicans are not satisfied with their only current option, former SoS Terri Lynn Land, so the NRSC may be offering additional inducements to Camp. But would he really be a better candidate than Land? Camp is pretty colorless and isn't well known outside of his Midland-based district; Land, at least, has won statewide twice. So it seems like "better," in this case, may just mean "has a bigger fundraising network."
It's unclear whether Land plans to put up much of a fight. After acknowledging that Camp hadn't bothered to speak with her, Land said she'll "wait" to "see what happens" before deciding whether to stay in the race. That's a departure from the typical "running-come-hell-or-high-water" statements that candidates usually offer when they're on the verge of getting bigfooted, and only later did she declare "We are in it to win it." Even if Camp does get in, though, and even if Land were to clear the way for him, Michigan's blue-tilting demographics and solid recruitment would still leave Democrats favored here.
• SD-Sen: In a briefing for reporters on Wednesday, DSCC chair Michael Bennet said his committee is "actively recruiting" in West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. So far, no Democrats are running in either of the first two states on that list, so naturally the DSCC is still talking to potential candidates there. But this does mean that DC Dems are still hoping for an alternative to former Tom Daschle staffer Rick Weiland in South Dakota, though Bennet did not offer any new names.
Gubernatorial:
• CA-Gov: Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown still hasn't said whether he's running for a second term, but it's hard to imagine he won't, given the fundraising report he just filed. Brown raised $2.8 million in the first six months of the year and has a daunting $10 million in the bank. In addition, Brown has $3 million left over in a fund that was used to successfully push Proposition 30 last year, a measure that increased income taxes on the wealthy in order to forestall education cuts. The funds cannot, however, be used to directly support a Brown re-election campaign.
• MI-Gov: A new poll conducted by Denno Research on behalf "bipartisan" p.r. firm Lambert, Edwards & Associates finds GOP Gov. Rick Snyder leading Democratic ex-Rep. Mark Schauer 43-37. That's a bit more positive Snyder than other polling has found, but 43 percent is still lousy for an incumbent, and what's more, Schauer is still unknown to three quarters of the state.
• OH-Gov: From January through June of this year, Republican Gov. John Kasich reported raising $2.6 million for his re-election campaign, leaving him with $4.4 million in his war chest. Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, Kasich's likely opponent in 2014, took in $600,000, including a $120,000 contribution from the Ohio Democratic Party, and has $544,000 on hand. FitzGerald also transferred $181,000 from his county executive committee. The Columbus Dispatch also offers some historical comparisons to 2009, when Kasich was just gearing up to run against then-Gov. Ted Strickland, whom he unseated the following year.
• VA-Gov: Ordinarily, an endorsement by a lone former state legislator in a gubernatorial isn't enough to merit a mention in the Digest, but knowledgeable locals—like, say, ex-Rep. Tom Perriello—seem to think that Watkins Abbitt getting behind Democrat Terry McAuliffe is a big deal. Abbitt has an unusual profile: He served in the state House of Delegates from 1986 to 2012, first as a Democrat, and then, from 2001 on, as an independent who caucused with Republicans. Given his trajectory, it's certainly notable that Abbitt headed back in the other direction to support McAuliffe, and in so doing, he gives T-Mac a bit of crossover cred. And as Lowell Feld points out, you don't exactly see many (or any) Democrats endorsing Republican AG Ken Cuccinelli.
Meanwhile, McAuliffe's also up with a new minute-long TV ad that hits the exact same theme as an earlier spot he ran. It's all about how energy companies have been running roughshod over ordinary folks in their rush to extract gas, and how Cuccinelli's office has actually helped those companies screw over the little guys.
House:
• WV-03: Just a couple of weeks ago, state Sen. Evan Jenkins publicly mooted switching parties to launch a bid for Congress against Dem Rep. Nick Rahall; now, he's gone ahead and done both. Jenkins changed his party registration to Republican and announced his candidacy on Wednesday, a move that undoubtedly pleased the GOP establishment—though he was (predictably) stripped of his leadership roles in the Democratic-controlled Senate.
However, Jenkins may not have the Republican primary to himself. Delegate Rick Snuffer, who lost to Rahall 54-46 last year, has been eyeing a rematch, and following Jenkins' entry into the race, he sounded bullish on making another run. And while Jenkins can certainly be considered conservative, he'll have a hard time out-conservative-ing Snuffer, who was quick to point out "the difference between Evan's legislative voting record and mine." So the GOP may feel they've had somewhat of a recruiting coup here, but let's see if Jenkins can actually come through for them.
Other Races:
• NYC Mayor: Presented without comment.
Grab Bag:
• Fundraising: Here are the June fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (May's are here):
DCCC |
$6,719,033 |
$4,510,781 |
$13,184,666 |
$2,208,252 |
$0 |
NRCC |
$7,073,744 |
$5,266,778 |
$11,268,770 |
$1,806,967 |
$2,250,000 |
DSCC |
$5,282,764 |
$5,206,276 |
$9,631,678 |
$76,489 |
$11,250,000 |
NRSC |
$3,657,805 |
$3,623,833 |
$7,041,340 |
$33,973 |
$6,500,000 |
DNC |
$5,457,926 |
$5,823,402 |
$5,671,664 |
($365,476) |
$18,343,184 |
RNC |
$8,067,785 |
$6,150,453 |
$12,738,745 |
$1,917,331 |
$1,225 |
Total Dem |
$17,459,723 |
$15,540,459 |
$28,488,009 |
$1,919,266 |
$29,593,184 |
Total GOP |
$18,799,334 |
$15,041,064 |
$31,048,855 |
$3,758,271 |
$8,751,225 |
In a rare occurrence, the NRCC outraised the DCCC in June, though note that both committees shed over $2 million in debt apiece, leaving the House Dems no longer owing a penny. The DSCC (which also sliced its debt by more than $2 million) continued its usual dominance of its counterparts, while the RNC did the same.
• State Legislatures: Profs. Boris Shor and Nolan McCarty released an interesting study this week, taking a look at whether or not the phenomenon of asymmetric polarization has presented itself at the state legislative level, in the same way it has in Congress. As the term implies, "asymmetric polarization" involves both political parties becoming more partisan, but to different degrees—and with Republicans deviating farther from the ideological midpoint, and faster, than Democrats.
Their conclusion? It has in fact happened legislatively, but in a somewhat differentiated pattern from state to state. We'll have a lot more to say about it with a deeper dive into the topic this Sunday. (Steve Singiser)