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Leading Off:

LA-Sen: PPP's new Louisiana poll has good news for Dem Sen. Mary Landrieu, and the numbers certainly look better than what two Republican pollsters found earlier in the week. Once again, Landrieu leads GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy by a 50-40 margin, just as she did in February. That's thanks to the support of almost a quarter of Republicans—a very healthy chunk—even though her job approval is a middling 46-43. As Tom Jensen notes, most undecideds lean to the right, so this gap will close, but Landrieu has to be pretty pleased with a poll like this.

In an interesting wrinkle, Cassidy's support plummets when multiple Republicans are included in various matchups. Louisiana law specifies that all candidates run together on a single ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing to a runoff if no one clears 50 percent. This system is known as a "jungle primary," and PPP is the first public pollster to test some these Tarzanesque scenarios. Right now, Air Force vet Rob Maness is the only other declared GOP hopeful, though state Sen. Elbert Guillory has also expressed interest. Here's what happens when they're thrown into the mix:

Landrieu:  47         Landrieu:  48
Cassidy:   20         Cassidy:   24
Guillory:   6         Maness:     5
Maness:     2         Undecided: 23
Undecided: 25
Evidently, when confronted with more than one choice, a sizable chunk of Republicans are reluctant to make up their minds, even if the alternative options poll in Some Dude territory. When facing a traditional D vs. R matchup, though, this wobbly contingent finds their partisan backbone. I'd expect Cassidy to ultimately make up most of this gap, seeing as he's known to only half the state. But what I wonder now is whether it Landrieu could potentially win outright, without a second round of voting. Unlikely, perhaps, but not impossible.

Senate:

KY-Sen: Why is it that people with phony degrees don't seem to have enough sense to avoid touting them? Then again, they did waste time and money on those bogus sheepskins in the first place, which suggests a certain lack of judgment. Anyhow, the latest bozo to inflict this kind of scrutiny on himself is businessman Matt Bevin, who's challenging Sen. Mitch McConnell in the GOP primary and who, until earlier this year, listed MIT in the "education" field at the top of his LinkedIn profile.

It turns out, though, that Bevin once took a three-week (!) seminar put together by some alumni who have no formal connection to the prestigious university. Even more chutzpahdik, Bevin described it as a "three-year program," when in reality, participants only attend for four days a year over a three-year period. Real nice. (Under education, doofus now puts "School of Life.")

The Hill actually reported all of this back in March, but it's come up again now because McConnell just released a new ad hammering Bevin over his deceptions. Bevin seems to know he's been nailed on this one, since he offered only the most half-hearted defense of his "MIT" coursework (I'd give up on that one entirely, dude) and mostly just tried to call McConnell a liar in response. McConnell is reportedly spending "six figures" on the buy.

MI-Sen: Former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land would very much like the GOP establishment to rally around her candidacy, but that hasn't really happened yet. When Rep. Dave Camp announced that he wouldn't run a few days ago, the statement he released did not include any mention of Land whatsoever. However, she did finally score an endorsement from one member of Michigan's congressional delegation, Rep. Candice Miller.

NC-Sen: Ah, bummer. Rep. Virginia Foxx has decided not to run for Senate next year, depriving us of what would have been the most entertaining GOP candidacy in the race to take on Sen. Kay Hagan. That still leaves just state House Speaker Thom Tillis as the only notable Republican running, though we're still waiting to hear from a few folks, including state Senate President Phil Berger, former Ambassador James Cain, and Baptist leader Mark Harris.

NJ-Sen: In the first post-primary poll (PDF) of the October special election to replace the late Frank Lautenberg, Monmouth University finds Newark Mayor Cory Booker with a 54-38 lead over his Republican opponent, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. That's basically unchanged from the 53-37 edge Monmouth found for Booker in their June poll, which, like their new survey, also tested likely voters. In a poll taken just before the primary, Quinnipiac had Booker ahead 54-29.

SC-Sen-B: Toward the end of a piece about Republican eagerness to challenge veteran Sen. Lindsey Graham rather than newly appointed Sen. Tim Scott in an intra-party primary is mention of a potential Democratic opponent for the latter. Former Commerce Dept. official Rick Wade, who lost a race for Secretary of State in 2002, says he's considering. Wade is also currently an executive at GreenTech Automotive, the electric car company whose management Virginia gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe has come under fire for from Republicans.

TN-Sen, TN-04: Recently, tea partiers started talking up the possibility of trying to unseat two-term Sen. Lamar Alexander in the GOP primary, and all of a sudden, they have a non-Some Dude candidate ready to give it a shot. State Rep. Joe Carr, who had been challenging another Republican incumbent, Rep. Scott DesJarlais, abruptly changed gears on Tuesday and announced that he'd go after Alexander instead. Alexander's sins, as movement conservatives perceive them, are no different from those of any generic establishment Republican, and given their huge disparity in resources, Carr's odds will be long. What's more, the Senate Conservatives Fund is already poor-mouthing Carr, hoping that someone stronger will jump in. Right now, though, no one else is on the horizon.

Carr's switch, though, is bad news for DesJarlais, who also faces the much better-funded state Sen. Jim Tracy. In a multi-way matchup, the scandal-plagued DesJarlais might have been saved by the proverbial clown-car effect, as the anti-incumbent vote would have been split between Tracy and Carr. Now, though, he's likely to face a direct one-on-one pairing with just Tracy, meaning he'd need a majority of Republican primary votes in order to survive. Right now, that doesn't seem very likely.

Gubernatorial:

IL-Gov: State Sen. Kwame Raoul, who is considering something of a dark-horse bid in the Democratic primary for governor, said over the weekend that he expects to make up his mind in the next 10 days or so.

MA-Gov: Juliette Kayyem, a former Obama homeland security official who seems to have caught the eye of EMILY's List, has filed paperwork to run in the Democratic primary for governor. That makes her the first woman in the contest, in a field with four men, though state Attorney General Martha Coakley is still considering a bid.

OH-Gov: I've agitated all year to have PPP poll Ohio, and though it took until August for that to happen, it looks like it was worth it. Their new survey, rather remarkably, shows Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald leading GOP Gov. John Kasich by a 38-35 margin, the first public poll to find the Democrat ahead.

However, you have to wonder why a) Kasich's numbers are so low and b) there are so many undecideds. The governor's approvals sit at 42-47 (down from 45-40 last November), which is certainly not great but also not truly awful. By way of comparison, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett also scored in the mid-30s in a PPP poll (PDF) earlier this year, but his approval rating was a rock bottom 33-58.

The sample might be a bit blue for a midterm (D+6, versus D+7 in last year's exit polls and R+1 in 2010), but that wouldn't explain much. And the fact that 7 percent of the electorate approves of what Kasich is doing but won't vote for him really stands out. FitzGerald, meanwhile, has just a 20-18 favorability score, so you'd expect lots of Democrats to be undecided at this point. But for a well-known incumbent like Kasich to lead Republicans by just a 68-9 spread, with almost a quarter still unsure? Something that unusual bears scrutiny, and we should definitely await further polling.

In the meantime, though, PPP has also given us some numbers for Ohio's downballot races next year. Sherrod Brown fans will be delighted to see that his 2012 opponent, Treasurer Josh Mandel, trails Democratic state Rep. Connie Pillich by 40-35, leading Tom Jensen to conclude that Mandel's mendacious campaign last year has done some real damage to his image. It's a different story for the guy Brown beat back in 2006, though: State Attorney General Mike DeWine beats former Hamilton County Commissioner David Pepper 46-32. The third race PPP tested is quite close, though, with Republican Secretary of State Jon Husted narrowly edging state Sen. Nina Turner 37-36.

House:

MN-07, NC-07: A couple more silly season ads from the NRCC, one targeting North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntyre, the other Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson. The former goes after McIntyre for increasing federal spending and supposedly living high on the hog on the taxpayer dime. The latter attacks Peterson for abandoning farmers, with one making the amusing claim that Peterson's "vote on cap-and-trade is something that definitely hurt farmers." (The bill never passed into law.)

Both buys are small, as you'd expect: $10,000 in NC-07 and $22,000 in MN-07. So you might wonder why we even give such tiny expenditures any attention at all, and the answer is that sometimes these attacks offer previews of the broader themes both sides will try to hit next year. Right now, the party committees may just be throwing things against the wall to see what sticks, but invariably, some of it will. By scrutinizing these ads now, we can learn what to expect later.

Other Races:

Detroit Mayor: Holy moly—what an insane turnaround. Election officials in Detroit are now saying that Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon, and not former Detroit Medical Center CEO Mike Duggan, came in first in the city's mayoral primary two weeks ago, and the reversal is gigantic. Preliminary returns had Duggan, who was waging a write-in campaign, up 46-30, but now certified results have Napoleon leading 41-34. Both men will still advance to the November general election, sparing Detroit the extreme embarrassment of having to un-call a race, but there's absolutely no explanation so far for how this colossal cockup happened.

Grab Bag:

Congress: The Hill is out with their annual compilation of the 50 richest members of Congress, arrived at by subtracting liabilities from assets as reported in each lawmaker's annual financial disclosures. Top of the list this year is GOP Rep. Darrell Issa of California, who is now worth at least $355 million. (Congressional rules only require members to provide ranges, not actual values, for each reported item; The Hill uses the most conservative estimates possible.) Last year's leader was another Republican congressman, Texas's Mike McCaul, but his total wealth fell nearly $200 million, but don't feel too bad for him: He's still in second place.

Pres-by-LD: We're hitting the heartland today, with 2012 election results according to legislative districts in four more states. (As always, a permalink to all our data is here.)

Summary Detailed Calculations
State CD LD (Upper) LD (Lower) CD LD (Upper) LD (Lower)
KS X X X Pres. Pres. Pres.
MI X X X Pres.; Sen.; Prop. 1; Prop. 2 Pres.; Sen.; Prop. 1; Prop. 2 Pres.; Sen.; Prop. 1; Prop. 2
ND X X Pres.; Sen.; US Rep.; Gov./Lt. Gov; Audit.; Treas.; Ins. Comm.; PSC Pres.; Sen.; US Rep.; Gov./Lt. Gov; Audit.; Treas.; Ins. Comm.; PSC (coterminous)
SD X X X Pres.; US Rep.; PUC (6-yr); PUC (4-yr) Pres.; US Rep.; PUC (6-yr); PUC (4-yr) (nested)
• The Kansas Legislature has been solidly controlled by Republicans for a while, though the 40-member Senate had been comparatively moderate until 2012. However, the resolution of the great moderate-conservative schism in the conservatives' favor has changed that: Conservative primary challengers defeated a slew of moderate GOP incumbents, and the Senate has shifted accordingly. Democrats were able to salvage one seat from the carnage, with Tom Hawk picking off a 58-39 Romney district after the moderate Republican incumbent was defeated. (Hawk is joined by three other Democrats in Romney-won districts; Democrats also hold four of the five districts won by Obama.)

The House, meanwhile, has always skewed conservative, and Democrats aren't in much of a position to change that at the moment. They hold 33 seats in the 125-seat chamber (with eight Democrats from HDs that went for Romney). Obama won a total of 29 districts, four of which are held by Republicans. The median HD is 62-35 Romney and the median SD is 61-37 Romney, both slightly to the right of the state as a whole (60-38). That follows from the heavy concentration of Democrats in Kansas City, and indeed, there are several districts in both chambers in which Obama scored north of 70 percent.

• Our calculations for the Michigan legislature were complicated by the fact that the Senate didn't have any elections at all in 2012! (Accordingly, our summary sheet doesn't list any legislators' names, since there's been some shifting of district numbers to accommodate population changes.) Democrats currently hold 12 seats in the 38-member body, and would need to win all districts on the new map where Obama received 56 percent or higher to maintain their position. The road to a majority is harder, seeing as the median district went narrowly for Romney by less than 1 percent. This is well to the right of Obama's 9.5 percent margin in the state, likely owing both to geography (Obama voters outnumber Romney voters more than 46:1 in the city of Detroit) and gerrymandering.

Substantial attention has been paid to the Michigan House this cycle, where Democrats gained 5 seats in 2012 and find themselves at only a 59-51 disadvantage. Obama won 53 of the 110 districts, and Democrats hold 49 of those seats (including all those at 51.7 percent Obama and above). Another five-seat gain would be needed to recapture the chamber and would requiring venturing into Romney-won territory: The median district here is also 50-49 Romney.

We also calculated results for two of the six failed proposals on the ballot last year: Prop. 1 (a referendum on GOP Gov. Rick Snyder's Emergency Manager law), and Prop. 2 (which would have amended the state constitution to guarantee a right to collective bargaining). The results, for Prop. 1 especially, don't fall neatly into the usual patterns: The strongest districts both for and against the law are Republican-held, and nowhere do we see margins similar to those for the partisan races.

• Both chambers of the North Dakota Legislature are also Republican-controlled, which is unsurprising given the overall tilt of the state. The state is divided into 47 LDs, and, following a model we've seen in other states, each LD elects one Senator and two Representatives. The Dem-NPL (the local affiliate of the Democratic Party) holds 14 seats in the Senate and 23 seats in the House, slightly outperforming Obama's haul of eight LDs. Combined, those eight LDs send six Dems to the Senate and 13 Dems to the House.

Interestingly, North Dakota is one of the few states in which Obama did better in the median district (58-40 Romney) than statewide (59-39 Romney). This result actually holds for six of the eight statewide partisan contests on the ballot, even though individual candidates had their own pockets of strengths that differed from Obama's in the state.

South Dakota's legislature operates a model that's a hybrid of its northern neighbor North Dakota (LDs electing two Representatives and one Senator each) and its eastern neighbor Minnesota (a Senate District is broken down into two House sub-districts, labeled "A" and "B"). Thirty-three of 35 districts rely on the North Dakota model, while the remaining two (SD-26 and SD-28) are split into sub-districts to create two Native American-majority districts (HDs 26A and 28A).

Democrats hold seven of 35 seats in the Senate; Obama carried four of those. Obama won five districts in total, meaning there are 3 Democrats in Romney districts and 1 Republican in an Obama district. In the House, Democrats hold 17 of 70 seats. There, Obama won districts comprising 10 seats, eight of which are held by Democrats. (Obama carried SD-26, but only HD-26A and not HD-26B. In exchange, the split of SD-28 means Obama also carried HD-28A.) There are also two Republicans in Obama districts and nine Democrats in Romney districts.

As in North Dakota, both chambers here feature median districts to the left of the statewide total: Romney won the median district by 17.3 percent, compared to his 18.0 percent statewide margin. (This result also holds for two of the three downballot races, representative in Congress and the 6-year seat on the state Public Utilities Commission.)

(jeffmd)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Q VA Gov: McAullife 48-42 (9+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 05:03:35 AM PDT

  •  State redistricting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RoIn, Woody, Gygaxian

    I just saw that Weld County is joining the even more conservative counties to its east that are trying to form a new state: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Now obviously the state wouldn't let these counties form their own state.  But what if they wanted to "sell" them to Kansas or Wyoming?  Couldn't a deal be worked out for them?  They probably fit in better culturally with KS or WY, and it would make Colorado even tougher for Republicans to win in.  

    •  What's Up With Crybaby Republicans? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      When Republicans controlled Colorado I never heard of places like Denver or Boulder making noises about seceding from the rest of the state.  But now that Democrats are in control suddenly red areas have to break away.

      What is it these Republicans and their temper tantrums when they don't win?

      “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

      by RoIn on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 07:21:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  WATB (0+ / 0-)

        That's what they are.  

        Frankly I say give them their own country.  Take part of Wyoming, Nebraska and Kansas with them and Glen Beck too.  Take KS-01 and Huelskamp (maybe we can elect some Dems statewide for a change), take NE-03 and Adrian Smith which is one of the reddest districts in the nation (maybe we can finally get better Dems here too), Take part of CO-04 (the rest of CO will be better off anyway) and take part of Wyoming.  Call it Dumbfukistan for all I care.  

        Then build a big fucking electrified wall around the whole country so the illegals won't invade the US.  Give amnesty to all good progressives in the new country (all ten of them) and let them resettle where they choose and aid them.  Establish an economic blockade of Dumbfukistan and then sit back and watch as their Ayn Randian Galt's Gulch descends into chaos and old western style gun violence.  Watch as the idiots who choose to reside there become exploited by the Koch Bros for the oil and gas rights on their newly independent land.  Watch as those toothless morons all die of poor health from the pollution and the meth they cook up and smoke, with no viable healthcare system to rely on when they get sick.  Watch as all those braindead NRA toadies shoot each other while standing their ground when the economic collapse forces them to take extreme measures to survive.  Then after a few years of this, watch as the survivors all cry and wail for us to let them back in.  That is if they don't decide to meet their maker ala Jonestown.  

        I say give them what they want.  It'll just turn into Somalia or Iraq under Bremer.  Fortunately for them there's a snowballs chance in hell of them actually pulling any of it off.  They're too dumb.  Unfortunately for us, we'll have to deal with their whiny asses until they turn blue and pass out.

        OTOH giving them a state wouldn't be such a bad idea, provided DC, Puerto Rico or Guam was given statehood as well.  

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 07:56:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Pay to go (0+ / 0-)

      Colorado could pay Kansas or Nebraska to take these fools off their hands. Well worth the price.

  •  VA-Gov: McAuliffe 48%-Cuccinelli 42% (6+ / 0-)

    Good news, but still a lot of work to do!

    •  Cuccinelli has been defined (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, Remediator, Stude Dude, Aquarius40, askew

      The democrats are running great ads defining cooch as an anti abortion, anti woman global warming denier who uses state money to go after enemies.
      Also McAuliffe has no real record to attack so mainly they are trying to turn him into some sleazy businessman not real interesting,
      Bottom line I have not seen one positive ad in this campaign in the last few months. It will be  a low turnout election because most people aren't to thrilled about either one of these guys.

  •  Re: "reversal" in Detroit Mayoral primary (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MetroGnome, Stude Dude, Gygaxian

    The dispute is with the manner in which the votes were totaled, not the actual count or validity of the write-in ballots. The Wayne County Board of Canvassers declined to certify thousands of Duggan's votes because some of the initial ballot reviewers kept track of subtotals with (gasp!!) numbers instead of tally marks.

    When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 05:29:21 AM PDT

    •  Amongst the technicalities. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MetroGnome, Stude Dude

      How can this not be interpreted as an attempt by the Board of Canvassers to subvert the Democratic process on the thinnest of reasons? Mark Ritchie, they ain't.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 05:56:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, blw

        It's a very clumsy and hamfisted way to go about it...and like the originally kicking off of Duggan from the primary ballot, this will only end up making him more popular for the general.

        I was VERY disappointed in how the Detroit dailies originally reported the story to make it sound as if Detroit was running some sham election.  It's such a easy headline to write given Detroit's troubles in so many other areas, but a simple glance of the issue would have told them that this wasn't nefarious electioneering.  But, then they'd have had to give up salacious headlines.

    •  Yeah, one of the articles I read (0+ / 0-)

      said that Napoleon's vote total hadn't increased by much.  It's Duggan's total that vastly decreased, for the reason you mentioned.

      It's all really shady.

  •  MD-Leg (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, Odysseus

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Republican Del Donald Dwyer was arrested and charged with DUI and a bunch of other traffic violations (speeding, reckless driving, expired tags, etc). This is his second run in with the law while drunk. He recently plead guilty in a drunk boating incident that nearly killed a 5 year old girl. He seems to have no qualms about staying in office, and if we can't beat a guy like this, I dont know who we can beat. He's a real piece of work, although his district is reliably red. Still, if he refuses to not run in 2014, I certainly hope we can make a run for the seat.

    Because a 3/4s majority in the House of Delegates would be very nice.

    •  Redistricting (0+ / 0-)

      cut his district (31) into two House subdistricts: 31A, a single member one which is blue-leaning (or at worst marginal), and 31B, a solidly red two-member one.

      This may have been done to target Dwyer, before he got himself into trouble.  In any event, it seems hard at this point to see him winning reelection even if he serves out his current term: either he runs in A and likely loses the general election or B and loses the primary with two other incumbents likely running.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 08:42:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Detroit Mayor: Follow-up on the vote count issue (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, MetroGnome, blw, Odysseus

    More information this morning from the Free Press:

    The county board was debating whether to invalidate more than 20,000 write-in votes that were not recorded at polling locations using hash marks, which would cause the result of the Aug. 6 primary to be flipped — with Napoleon, the Wayne County sheriff, receiving more votes than write-in candidate Duggan.

    [...]

    The board was split on whether to certify Detroit mayoral election numbers after votes were called into question because of errors by Detroit elections workers.

    “The county canvassing board was only required in June to certify local elections,” said Board of Canvassers Chair Carol Larkin. “There’s very little precedent for us to act on. But there were numerical discrepancies ... that need to be reconciled. And the state will do that.”

    [...]

    Counters for the Wayne County Board of Canvassers were unsure of what to do with votes that did not use a method known as “hash-marking,” where votes are counted individually on poll books. The 20,000 votes at issue were entered into the books with just the numerical number of votes, instead of hash marks.

    The proper way for poll workers to keep track of write-in votes is shown in a manual the state provided county boards of canvassers in July 2010. The manual shows a sample poll book with hash marks corresponding with each vote cast for a declared write-in candidate. The hash marks then are to be added up for each declared write-in candidate and a total is to be recorded in each poll book.

    [...]

    Jocelyn Benson, interim dean of the Wayne State University Law School, said there is no language in state law that requires the recording of hash marks for write-in votes to be counted.

    “Nothing in the law says these ballots — if properly cast — should, as a result of an error in tallying, not ultimately be counted,” she said.

    Further, the Michigan Supreme Court has ruled that a vote for a write-in candidate should count when the voter’s intent is clear.

    Benson said the Wayne County board is proceeding properly by handing off the issue to the state.

    My expectation from all of that would be that the state certifies the numbers that include the 20,000 votes at issue. And the real impact is minimal-- both Duggan and Napoleon advance to the November election either way.

    But this frustrates me so much. If the write-in voters themselves did everything right-- wrote in the name, spelled it correctly, filled in the oval next to the line-- then a clerical error as stupid as not using hash marks to count the votes shouldn't be enough to invalidate a ballot. If any action should be taken, it should be an automatic recount using the proper method, not invalidating legal votes.

    Like I said, I have a hard time believing it'll stand or that it'll impact the race in a meaningful way. But stupid stuff like this shouldn't be an issue.

    •  This shouldn't be (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, Woody, R30A, Gygaxian

      This shouldn't be an issue, and it appears that the ONLY person it was an issue for was Wayne County Clerk Cathy Garrett.  I want to find out who's pocket she's in, and how she is connected to Benny, because this doesn't make sense, otherwise.  It'd be different if this has been brought up when the city clerk was certifying the vote, but it wasn't.  It wasn't until it gets to Garrett that we see her trying to fix the election...

    •  The idea that anyone would consider (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, MetroGnome

      disenfranchising voters over a clerical tallying nitpick is incredibly disturbing to me. That said, I can't possibly see how a court could do anything but force the counting of the votes. This is worse than Florida 2000 in principle!(although obviously not in effect. )

      Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

      by R30A on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 07:04:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Fuck Landrieu (0+ / 0-)

    and her right-wing bullshit. People like her are the reason the Democratic Party is such a piece of shit.

    I didn't abandon the fight, I abandoned the Party that abandoned the fight...

    by Jazzenterprises on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 06:05:41 AM PDT

  •  TN-Sen Tea Party Candidate misspelled Senate (8+ / 0-)

    Joe Carr's debut began in true tea party fashion with this misspelling the word  Senate.  From Twitter photo.

    GOP, TN, TN-Sen, TeaParty
    Tennessee Sen. Candidate Joe Carr, the Tea Party Challenger to Sen. Lamar Alexander

    Nothing fixes a thing so intensely in the memory as the wish to forget it. - Michel de Montaigne

    by Sandy on Signal on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 06:15:13 AM PDT

  •  New Poll Out On NJ Gov Race (6+ / 0-)

    There is a new poll out:

    "TRENTON, N.J. -- New Jersey's Democratic voters are shifting back to their party's gubernatorial nominee, state Sen. Barbara Buono, helping to shrink Gov. Chris Christie's still-commanding lead to 20 percentage points, according to results of the latest Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll released Tuesday.

    Christie leads Buono among likely voters, 56 percent to 36 percent. His advantage is 10 points smaller than it was in June. Poll director Patrick Murray said the difference is that 36 percent of Democrats backed Christie two months ago, compared with 21 percent now — which he said is still high for a Republican."

    Democrats should be scared to death to have Christie re-elected.  Christie wants to be the GOP nominee in 2016 for POTUS.  Imagine the horrible things he is going to do to NJ to get republicans back on his side.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 06:31:38 AM PDT

  •  Finding it hard to get excited (0+ / 0-)

    about re-elected Landrieu... but then again, I don't live down there so can't really impact it much.

    •  I look at it this way. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, Christopher Walker, anastasia p

      As I pointed out yesterday, if she wins, the odds of us completely losing the senate go way down.

      Don't be excited about her getting re-elected.  Get excited about us keeping the senate.

      •  2014 is a stepping stone to 2016 (0+ / 0-)

        If Dems can hold onto the Senate in 2014 that means they'll have a very good shot at 60+ seats in 2016.  Obviously the more seats they have going into the 2016 election, the easier it will be to get 60+.  There are 8-10 or so seats the Dems have legitimate shots at flipping in 2016.  Landrieu will be part of that equation.  She'll be one of those 50+ going in.  With a 60+ super majority, the GOP can't filibuster jack shit and Landrieu can be free to vote against certain legislation and go back to LA and say she fought for their issues.  

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 10:16:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NC Senate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Remediator, Sandy on Signal, Gygaxian

    Having Tom Tillis, the Speaker of the NC House and NC Senate President Phil Berger run against each other in a primary would be interesting as each would have to emphasize that HE is the one most responsible for the reactionary actions of the legislature in order to rally the teabagger base of the party.  This would come back to haunt either of them in the general as the legislature has become extremely unpopular.

    “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

    by RoIn on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 07:31:08 AM PDT

  •  Kwame Raoul might run statewide? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    Yes! Then I would get to say the name "Kwame Raoul" more often! He is my sister's state senator.

    Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

    by anastasia p on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 08:34:12 AM PDT

  •  Re Ohio, I do not wonder (0+ / 0-)

    why Kasich's approvals have plummeted or why there are so many undecideds.

    In the last couple of months, Kasich has: A. stripped women of their reproductive choice and signed the bill surrounded completely by middle-aged white men in a photo that has gone viral. B. raised taxes on everyone who isn't making six figures at least C. had his beloved JobsOhio aka RobsOhio, which was supposed to perform economic miracles, exposed as a cesspool of cronyism and corruption D. saw his touted economic miracle crumble in light of prolonged joblessness in the state E. forced an unprecedented number of levies due to his starvation of public schools and local governments.

    All of this stuff is starting to connect. I think there was a lull period, maybe a sort of second honeymoon, when his approvals briefly rebounded because people really weren't tuned it. Now they are. The budget churned up a whole bunch of bad stuff, and the renewed assaults on women were politically destructive — and they are continuing because the Republicans in the legislature won't give up on championing even more extreme restrictions, which will stick to Kasich like burrs.

    The undecideds? They don't know anything about FitzGerald. Six-eight months ago, when he was first talking about running, I knew a lot of Democratic activists who were leery because they thought HE was anti-choice. A a mayor and county executive, he'd never had to publicly take a position and people assumed that because he is Irish Catholic, he was anti-choice. Boy, we they wrong. But people are just starting to know him now.

    On the up side, this is the earliest the challenging party has nailed a candidate for governor in Ohio in decades. So there's plenty of time for him to raise money, campaign and get known. In 2005, Strickland wasn't the candidate yet and was just starting to meet with people around the state, something FitzGerald has been doing since last year.

    As for Josh "The Empty Suit" Mandel, gosh, I am SO sorry that "all lying all the time" thing isn't working out for him. Boo hoo. I'm also glad his #1 selling point "I was a Marine" has been undercut too, since Connie Pillich was an air force captain.

    Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

    by anastasia p on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 08:46:15 AM PDT

  •  not a whole lot of difference between her and a (0+ / 0-)

    Republican.  be nice to primary her out with a much more progressive candidate- that is if oil would allow it:)

    This "Trickle Down" thing has turned out to be somebody pissing on my leg and tellin' me it's rainin'.

    by swtexas on Wed Aug 21, 2013 at 12:40:42 PM PDT

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