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8:41 AM PT: CA-17: The Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America are touting a new poll from Public Policy Polling of the Democrat-on-Democrat race in California's 17th Congressional District, where the PCCC's been raising money for veteran Rep. Mike Honda. PPP finds Honda with a 49-15 lead over former Commerce Department official Ro Khanna, with 36 percent undecided. That's a bit tighter than the only other poll we've seen of the race, Lake Research internal from Honda which gave him a 57-5 advantage. However, Honda's survey also included 2012 Republican candidate Evelyn Li, to simulate California's top-two primary. (Li took 12.)

But given Khanna's monster fundraising—he has $1.7 million in the bank—it's unlikely that he won't make it to the general election, especially since he's running largely to Honda's right, which means he could hoover up a lot of Republican votes in the primary. That still leaves Khanna with exactly the same problem he faced on day one, though: This is a dark blue seat that gave 72 percent of its vote to Barack Obama. Many things will likely change between now and November of next year, including the size of Honda's lead, but the district's demographics won't.

9:35 AM PT: NYC Comptroller: Well, that's a bit of a turnaround. Quinnipiac's new poll of the Democratic primary for city comptroller finds the race all tied at 46, even though two weeks ago, former Gov. Eliot Spitzer held a commanding 19-point lead over Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer. Prior to that last poll, Spitzer had the airwaves all to himself, and was spending a ton of his own money on TV. Since then, though, Stringer's gone up with advertisement of his own, which would help explain how that gap closed.

But 19 points in two weeks? That's a huge deficit to make up in such a short timeframe, and it makes me wonder if Quinnipiac's mid-August survey wasn't something of an outlier. Indeed, some of Stringer's labor allies tried to push back against Quinnipiac's poll last week, dribbling out results from their own poll that showed Spitzer up just 6. At the time, I dismissed the numbers, because the pollster's name wasn't released and because the undecideds seemed weirdly high (the topline had Spitzer leading 39-33). But perhaps things really weren't as far apart as Quinnipiac claimed.

In any event, the race definitely seems to be close now, because a second poll also released on Thursday confirmed Quinnipiac's numbers. In a survey for amNewYork and News 12, Penn Schoen Berland sees Spitzer edging Stringer by just a 46-43 margin. This is PSB's first poll of the race, so we can't check on their trendlines. But if these two new polls are correct, then this contest is definitely in tossup territory.

11:39 AM PT: VA-Gov: The League of Conservation voters is out with a new poll from PPP that confirms other recent data showing Democrat Terry McAuliffe with a lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli, though this survey has more undecideds. PPP has McAuliffe up 44-37, similar to the 48-42 edge Quinnipiac just gave him, at least going by the spread. Unlike Quinnipiac, though, PPP included Libertarian Robert Sarvis, who takes an improbably high 9 percent. That number's very likely to drop by election day, but it does explain the lower vote shares for both major party candidates in PPP's findings.PPP finding McAuliffe in the middle rather than high 40s, though, actually matches almost all prior polling; only Quinnipiac and a Virginia Democratic Party internal from Myers Research have shown T-Mac creeping close to the 50 percent mark.

11:57 AM PT: Polltopia: Interesting. Democratic robopollster Public Policy Polling has long managed to maintain its track record for accuracy despite not calling cell phones. (Federal law prohibits making automated calls to cells under most circumstances.) But with almost two in five adults living in households without landline service these days, PPP is about to change its practices. The firm is soliciting proposals that would allow them to reach such voters while still remaining affordable. PPP director Tom Jensen says that this could be done in a variety of ways, including text- or Internet-based systems. Live operator calls are also possible, but given their high cost, Jensen says they likely won't be PPP's "first choice."

1:20 PM PT: NJ-Sen, -Gov: Not so interesting: a new Farleigh Dickinson poll showing both Cory Booker and Gov. Chris Christie with big leads over their opponents. (Booker's beating Republican Steve Lonegan 50-22, while Christie's ahead of Democrat Barbara Buono 50-26.) Much more interesting: this consummate takedown of Booker from the excellent Alex Pareene, who nails what many of Booker's critics find so discomfiting about the man. It's not the kind of piece that can be easily summarized, but here's a taste:

Putting Cory Booker's "Visit Newark, I Dare You" tourism pitch aside, let us note that his response to the argument that he is too cozy with rich people is that he is indeed very good friends with very rich people and that has benefited the citizens of Newark. OK, but: Is that a sustainable model of governance? Once Cory Booker leaves Newark to be a United States senator, who is going to fund Newark's schools and parks? Will Newark residents have to elect someone else that rich people love? Charity based on one charismatic guy's networking ability is not a replicable model. But this is how Booker understands his job.

If elected to the Senate, "Booker emphasizes the work he would be doing with the poorer parts of New Jersey and his ability to 'call up companies and say, "This is a moral sin …"'" It's not clear what sort of sin Booker is talking about in his hypothetical here, but it's very Booker that his response to this "sin" isn't "I will pass regulation to stop it" but I will call the company and persuade them. If they agree, good! If they don't, because the "sin" is profitable and the market responds not to morality but to profit? Oh well!

Also worth a read is this article from the National Review, of all places, discussing Booker's frequently-told tales about a Newark drug dealer he once knew named T-Bone. The problem: even Booker supporters acknowledge that T-Bone never existed.

Booker himself still insists T-Bone is real, but the piece demolishes his claims by cleverly relying on contradictory statements from Booker's allies, including a Rutgers professor who says he pulled Booker aside years ago to express his disapproval. Booker apparently hasn't publicly brought up T-Bone since, but his campaign spokesman couldn't have offered more of a non-response when asked about the topic today: "I think your questions have been answered a long time ago."

2:49 PM PT: AR-04: How odd. Less than three weeks after announcing a bid for Arkansas's open 4th Congressional District, Lt. Gov. Mark Darr is dropping out. It seems like the proximate cause for Darr's decision was recently revealed irregularties in the campaign finance reports he filed as lieutenant governor, and the supposed criticism he came under for it. Seems a little thin to abandon a campaign over, but in any event, Darr's departure leaves state House Majority Leader Bruce Westerman as the main Republican running for this seat.

3:34 PM PT: PA-Gov: Former state Auditor Jack Wagner, who lost the Democratic primary for Pittsburgh mayor earlier this year but is considering a bid for governor, says he'll decide "within the next 30 days."

3:38 PM PT: AL-01: Former state Sen. Bradley Byrne is out with his first ad in the Republican primary for this fall's special election to replace ex-Rep. Jo Bonner. Citing his work as chancellor of the Alabama Community College System, the narrator says Byrne "cleaned up" the state's scandal-plagued two-year colleges. The buy is reportedly for $47,000.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:00:12 AM PDT

  •  MD Lege - Potential HD-15 Vacancy (2+ / 0-)

    http://www.marylandjuice.com/...

    Its looking increasingly likely that Del. Brian Feldman is going to get a promotion to the SD-15 seat being vacated by Rob Garagiola, which will leave a vacancy in the HD-15 seat, obviously. Like with senate vacancies, House vacancies are fill by appointment of the governor based on a recommendation from the county party central committee. Former Del. Herman Taylor, who represented HD-14 for 2 terms before leaving the House to try to primary Donna Edwards in 2010, wrote a letter of support for former Del. Saqib Ali, who represented HD-39 for 1 term before running against state Sen. Nancy King in the 2010 primary and losing.

    •  I like having governors (0+ / 0-)

      replace legislative vacancies.  As is often the case with state senate vacancies, a state representative is usually chosen, which would necessitate a second special election if Maryland went that route.  You end up with chains of special elections when something like this happens.  Seems easier to just let the governor pick them and then they're up the next regular election.

      •  The way its set up in Maryland (0+ / 0-)

        It also preserves the parties' proportions in the legislature. Although I seem to remember a recent court case that found that the governor doesnt HAVE to pay attention to the list of nominees sent by the county central committees and could technically appoint whoever he wanted to the seats.

      •  No one should serve in a legislature (0+ / 0-)

        Unless they're elected to it. I don't even like it for U.S. Senators.

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:07:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm fine as long as its for a short term (6+ / 0-)

          before they face voters the next regular election.  For me, it comes down to seeing special elections as not being particularly representative, with so few people voting.

          •  Two years is a long time, though. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BoswellSupporter

            Moreover incumbents have a leg up that they didn't really earn when it comes time for the election, especially in the primary.

            Witness the kerfluffle here about the Hawaii primary (not that I want to rehash it AGAIN). Not one person would have a problem with Colleen Hanabusa running for senate against Schatz if Abercrombie had appointed a placeholder, or if Inouye had lived long enough to retire. But her challenge is being treated by some as if it's fundamentally illegitimate because Schatz is progressive and an incumbent. This despite the fact that in this overwhelmingly Democratic state, this seat has literally never once had a competitive Democratic primary.

            You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

            by Gpack3 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 11:43:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That is true (0+ / 0-)

              Sen. Bennett would not have turned aside Andrew Romanoff so easily had he not already been the incumbent via appointment.

              There's no real perfect solution here.  I truly dislike when politicians get re-elected only to turn around and bail mid-term.  I'm a big fan of only allowing people to run for one office each election (so no running for re-election to Congress while also being a VP nominee), and would like to see that made law.  I also hate seeing current office-holders tapped for cabinet positions (there's a wealth of retired senators and governors that could do just as well).

          •  and expensive just for a state legislative (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MRobDC

            election.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 11:43:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

              Is it worth the expense to the state and the counties to set up and manage an election where less than a quarter of voters show up for somebody to fill out a single 90 day legislative session? The voters deserve representation, which they get with an appointment that is based on a recommendation by the county part leaders. It's unlikely that Republican central committee of a county is going to recommend a nomination that is so outside of what the voters of the district would want that it would be a real problem.

      •  here the county commission(s) where the district (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        is picks the replacement from a group nominated by the precinct committee persons in the district. I like that system. That way at least locals pick the replacement.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:10:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  that's a better way to do it (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          If the only restriction is that the replacement has to be from the same party as the legislator who vacated the position, that just invites the gov to pick someone who's technically registered with the other party but will vote with the gov.

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:23:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah Hawaii ran into that problem (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoosierD42

            several years ago.  Lingle picked a complete nobody who had just registered as a Democrat to fill an open seat.  The representative turned out to be a conservative and a tax fraud, who was easily defeated in the primary next year.  After that, the legislature passed a law requiring vacancies to be filled from a list approved by the legislature.

          •  yes, we have that restriction. (0+ / 0-)

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 11:44:00 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  If Ali is appointed (0+ / 0-)

      it would behoove him electorally to find where the coffee and espresso machines are in the Capitol.  He lost the Senate primary after King put out a number of mailers showing and making fun of him for sleeping on a couch while the House was doing business.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:35:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Question (9+ / 0-)

    When Cory Booker is elected, New Jersey will have two non-white senators. Will that make New Jersey the first white-majority state to have two non-white senators?

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11. Rush Holt for Senate!

    by interstate73 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:27:49 AM PDT

    •  Looks like yes (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, WisJohn

      http://www.senate.gov/...

      Hiram Revels (who was the first person of color in Congress) served for 1 year. Blanche Bruce(served from 1875 to 1881) (who was the only former slave to be elected to Congress). Both were from Missisippi. It would 86 years before another African American was elected to the Senate (Ed Brooke of Massachusetts)

    •  I see what you did there. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, DCCyclone

      I would have said Hawaii, but of course it's not majority white.

      29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

      by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:53:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Are we counting Menedez as a minority? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, The Caped Composer

      Isn't he White Hispanic?

      •  If the Republicans (4+ / 0-)

        are going to tout Rubio and Cruz as their minority stars, then yes, we can count Menendez.

        29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 07:07:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know if I'm okay with that. (0+ / 0-)

          Besides the fact that we have a plenty of "minorities" in our party.

        •  Heck, Republicans count Toomey (0+ / 0-)

          Because he is part Portuguese.

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 07:58:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Portuguese people are white though (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            They're not Hispanic

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:08:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  They are considered both (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MRobDC

              Same with Spaniards and some Cubans. White and Hispanic are not mutually exclusive.

              I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

              by OGGoldy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:14:51 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  No, Portuguese are sometimes considered Latinos (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jncca, DCCyclone, Setsuna Mudo, askew

                Which is just a general broad term. A Hispanic is anyone of Spanish speaking descent. Regardless of ethnic make up. You can be a Dominican, and can be dark skinned, where anywhere else in the country, you would considered Black, but in reality you're Hispanic. Vise versa for Cubans who are very fair skinned, and can pass for White.

                That's why Spaniards are considered both Hispanic/Latino and white. Portuguese are sometimes grouped as Latinos, but they're not Hispanic.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:26:17 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  You may have the textbook definitions right (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  gabjoh

                  but one thing I've learned from these debates is that the accepted meanings vary in this country, particularly among the Hispanic/Latino people in question.  Check the Hispanic-Latino naming dispute page on wikipedia to get an idea of how unsettled the nomenclature is, despite the supposed finality of the definitions.  Fact is, some people just prefer to be called Latino.  Others prefer to be called Hispanic.  But most I've known don't even like the labels and just prefer to be called Mexican, Cuban, Puerto Rican, or whatever.  Yet we apparently need terms to lump them all together, so we have this mess.

                  •  Yeah it's like a tribal thing (0+ / 0-)

                    Everybody mentions their nationally first, second and third when they describe themselves.

                    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:57:28 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Stephen Wolf

                    Accepted meanings vary by country.

                    But the biggest thing here is that we're talking about how it operates in this country. In which David, myself, Cyclone, and whoever else happens to take our side in this debate is pretty much spot on.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:09:41 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  haha (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              uclabruin18

              don't tell the Portuguese in Hawaii that!  Local Portuguese people are very proud of their heritage and react the same way to being lumped in with white people as native Hawaiians or Samoans do to being lumped in with Asians.

              Tom Hanks and James Franco are part Portuguese, but they're usually just seen as white (and never, ever described as Hispanic by the media).  But in Hawaii, Portuguese people are simply "Portuguese", and not white.  It's just a separate group.

      •  I think so, yes. (0+ / 0-)

        Rep. Albio Sires (D-NJ) was called the first Hispanic Speaker of the NJ Assembly, and he's seemingly of Criollo descent while Menendez appears to be of Mestizo descent.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:12:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hispanics are covered under the VRA (0+ / 0-)

        Meaning that there is racially (or ethnically) polarized voting and a history of discrimination against them.

        Race is extremely fluid, obviously, so how you classify some people might change depending on what purpose the classification is being used for. It's pretty clear that the purpose here is to remark how unusual it is for white voters to elect certain groups.

        Mainline Protestants aren't minorities by any stretch of the imagination, but it would be extremely unusual for Utah to elect two of them at the same time.

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:16:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yes (10+ / 0-)

      As a lesson to everyone above:

      Anyone who is of Iberian peninsular descent, whether they be Portuguese, Spanish, or Catalan (the three main ethnolinguistic groups of the peninsula) or their Caribbean or American mestizo and afromestizo populations are considered either Hispanic and/or Latino regardless of whatever other racial self-identifications they may have.

      They are Hispanic/Latino: Cruz, Menendez, Rubio, etc.

      They are simply white Hispanic, whereas other individuals are afrohispanic, such as Celia Cruz or Christina Milian (I can't believe I just used those two in the same sentence...).

      It makes absolutely no difference what American defined "race" that someone is on whether or not they are Hispanic, because Hispanic is not defined as a racial category. It is an ethnic category that spans across racial classifications. Someone can be both white and Hispanic at the same time (and, in fact, many Hispanics self-identify this way) just as well as they can be both black and Hispanic.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:11:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  People (0+ / 0-)

        often use Hispanic when talking about race and ethnicity. Not that this makes it right, but you can see where the confusion comes in.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:13:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

          And the confusion absolutely drives me crazy.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:04:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            redrelic17

            I can think of better things to get worked up about, especially since the Census Bureau is considering changing Hispanic to a race.

            Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

            by David Nir on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:52:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  LOL (0+ / 0-)

              and just downthread I was talking about how most people I meet consider (incorrectly) that Hispanic is a race just like white, black, American Indian, etc., and react to confusion how the Census forces Hispanics to choose one of the races in addition to the "Are you Hispanic?" question.

              Well, the Census is certainly not above being to public pressure.  They finally split off Hawaiians and Samoans from "Asian", and allowed people to select more than one race recently.

            •  The pertinent number from that (0+ / 0-)

              is the fact that 37% of self-identified Hispanics on the last census checked "Other" on racial category.  That's a pretty big chunk of Hispanics that reject the racial categories as given.

              I've also wondered how many Middle Easterners check "Other" on race (as I understand it, they are "supposed" to check White).

            •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

              But this is for practical as much as identity-driven purposes.

              It makes the usage of Hispanic as a race something that can overlap, but not forced overlap, with other racial identifiers such as white and black. It also dovetails with the long-standing trend among anglos as racializing a previously non-racial group (Hispanics/Latinos). We aren't there yet, as there is a significant level of disagreement within the Hispanic/Latino community about whether or not to do this. Remember the discussion that were held by the Bush II administration about this change? They ended in deadlock. A good summary of what happened, and the elite level (especially census level) discussions of this change and other considerations was done in Victoria Hattam's In the Shadow of Race.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 11:20:37 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  As a census enumerator, I can tell you (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                David Nir

                Most Hispanics I talked to wrote in "Hispanic" for the race option.

                You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

                by Gpack3 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 12:39:17 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I was a census regional manager (0+ / 0-)

                  And I have to remind you that it was under the guidelines and training for you to, in those instances, specify to the respondent that Hispanic is not a valid entry for "race" and to suggest that they select or write in a standard entry.

                  The census bureau, I'll also remind you, reclassifies those Hispanics who write in "Hispanic" as their race along the breakdown of the racial scale that those Hispanics who did choose a standalone race. For a description of these methods, see the work I linked somewhere in this thread by Hattam.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:59:44 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I was trained not to question what people say (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Skaje, gabjoh

                    On that question. If they wanted to put in some bullshit like "Klingon" we'd have to take that answer. This wasn't a decennial census btw, it was a special census.

                    You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

                    by Gpack3 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 02:36:21 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Ah! (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Skaje, gabjoh

                      Therein lies the difference. The bureau is significantly more hamstrung in what it has to do for the decennial census than for its special projects. So we both had different experiences.

                      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 02:46:33 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

      •  Disclaimer (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        These are American racial and ethnic identities. For a discussion of, say, Brazilian racial and ethnic categories, please read select chapters in Shades of Difference.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:14:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  makes a difference for civil rights laws (0+ / 0-)

        You said "it makes no difference ...." but it does under U.S. laws banning discrimination.  Someone could file a claim with the EEOC alleging discrimination by his white supervisor for failure to hire, promote, etc. because the claimant is Hispanic.

      •  Like I said upthread to BKGyptian (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David Nir, Avenginggecko, gabjoh

        You got the textbook definitions right (and I know better than to argue with a poli science major on this!) but I've found that a lot of people simply reject these labels or put their own meanings on them.  Yeah, we can go around telling each and every one of them that they're wrong, but race and ethnicity are such fluid concepts that we are unlikely to be successful.  A lot of people I've met of Mexican descent would reject being called white or black.  They simply see themselves as Mexican, but acknowledge that they could also be called Latino or Hispanic (and acceptance of those terms is its own mess).

        I know the Census agrees with you there, not having Hispanic as a racial category, but rather an additional thing to check, i.e. "What race are you (white, black, American Indian/Alaskan Native, Asian, or Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander), and then "Are you of Hispanic origin (yes/no)?"  While that may be the official way to see things, I think most people actually see Latino/Hispanic as just another race, and belonging in the first category.

        My sister has always checked Hispanic on forms because she's part-Portuguese.  I never have, not really "feeling" Hispanic, if you will.  Especially coming from Hawaii, where Portuguese is seen as its own racial group (amusing, I know), separate from the local Latinos (mostly Puerto Ricans and Mexicans, and a growing constituency).  So much of race and ethnicity is self-identification anyway.  But I do appreciate your academic knowledge on the matter.

        •  Well (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, DCCyclone

          I want to quibble only with this little nugget, as most of what you said is generally accepted:

          race and ethnicity are such fluid concepts that we are unlikely to be successful.
          This isn't exactly true. Race and ethnicity may be fluid over time, but only long spans of time. Race and ethnic categorizations rarely change for individuals, in part because cultural forces are such strong determinants and because this is such a central component to human identity.

          Realistically, the only instances in which their is change occurs in the perception of others. Such perceptions only change in the overlap of race/ethnicity and class. The rich are the only people able to overcome barriers into whiteness, and only those who have visibly light skin and Anglo features are able to achieve it. These are very rare individuals.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 11:13:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I phrased that incorrectly (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, HoosierD42

            I didn't mean fluid as in changing.  I was trying to say that race and ethnicity are difficult to really quantify.  In the old days, there were just Mongoloid, Negroid, and Caucasoid, but we've gotten a bit past that.  The epic wikipedia page on race gives an idea of how much dispute and revisions have occurred (I know almost none of that will be new to you because of your studies; I link it more for the others following this conversation).

            So that's pretty much my point, is that classifying humans by race is difficult, subject to much contention, under constant revision, and of course varies widely from country to country.  Attempts at making official distinctions fail to override culturally accepted concepts of race.

  •  No New Mexico counties... (0+ / 0-)

    Announced they will issue same-sex marriage licenses yesterday. As I said earlier this week, the low-hanging fruit has all been picked.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:45:33 AM PDT

  •  PPP: CA-17 Honda leads Khanna (5+ / 0-)

    49-15 with 36% undecided.

    However, I'm not sure whether Ro Khanna has actually spent any significant amount of his $1.7 million raised yet. Obviously, that could swing the polling a fair bit.

    http://www.politico.com/...

  •  Down in the weeds (5+ / 0-)

    Apparently the school district I live in wants to build a 14,000-seat football stadium for $69.5 million.  The bond is on the ballot in November.

    Yep, you read that sentence correctly.

    29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 07:48:37 AM PDT

    •  School.. district? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, ProudNewEnglander, JBraden

      You mean highschool football? Jesus christ, this shit has to end. Separate extracurricular sports activities entirely from the schools. We the taxpayers should not be paying millions of dollars so a few taxpayers' spawns can throw a damn ball around.

      •  Wow. (5+ / 0-)

        Somebody doesn't like sports, apparently.

        29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 07:58:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Athletics is an important scholastic activity (10+ / 0-)

        The same goes for performing arts, etc. But 70,000,000 is a lot of money for a high school sports complex. When I was in high school my school district put in a new football field / track / baseball / Softball fields, and redid the gym floor. I thinking cost something like 10,000,000. Which is a much more reasonable sum

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:04:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp

          But the cost of these projects seems to go up more than inflation.  Also it's a huge district so maybe on a per student basis the cost is similar to what your school did.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:12:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  they can't all play there the same week! (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, James Allen

            I suppose they could have one game on Thursday, one on Friday, one on Saturday, but it strikes me as extravagant.

            The point of high school sports in most of the country is to give the kids a constructive way to blow off steam, and to give some of them a reason to stay focused in school. It doesn't make any difference whether you have a state of the art stadium or a crappy scoreboard and a few stands of bleachers. Then there's Texas, which is just weird.

            SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:35:48 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Mr. Holland's Opus (6+ / 0-)

          Does anyone remember this movie? It's almost 20 years old now, but it's one that I really like, even though I'm not a music guy. There's one scene at the end, once Mr. Holland (Richard Dreyfuss) finds out the school's art, music, and drama programs are being cut, where he ends up getting heated at a school board meeting, that really stuck with me--the one where he talks about how lazy the board members have become and how willing they are to create a generation of kids that can't think, or create, or listen.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:58:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  To be fair (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, ArkDem14, LordMike

        Their tax rate hasn't increased since 2008, and the bond also includes close to $25M for an agriscultural sciences center and $5 million for STEM projects center.

        What's truly insane is that a school district has 67,000 students and only 7 high schools.  Even if you consider only like 1/4 of the 67,000 are in the high schools, those are some big schools.

        http://www.chron.com/...

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:10:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rdw72777, James Allen, ArkDem14

          They definitely build the high schools bigger in Texas.  Of course there are a few in the Dallas area that have over 5,000 students.

          I think the largest high school in the district has ~3500 students in grades 9-12, and that's going down since a new high school opened this year.  They're planning on building two more in the near future.  Basically it's difficult for them to keep up with the growth in the area because it's growing so rapidly.

          I get the arguments for bigger high schools (more extracurriculars, AP courses, etc.) but I kind of think you max out on that stuff when the school gets to be around 1500-2000 students.

          29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

          by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:22:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well consider the source (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TDDVandy, James Allen

            I grew up in a small town with a graduating class of 48 students.  Routinely schools further into the Adirondacks have graduating classes in the single-digits.

            I get the argument for large schools and small schools, I'm at one end of the extreme and you're at the other.  I think we'd both agree that being more towards the middle is better, where feasible.

            I know one of my former bosses went to Neshaminy HS in suburban Philly before it built new schools and had a graduating class of like 1100 or something ridiculous.  That's just way too big.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:28:57 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Years ago, when many Long Island schools (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TDDVandy, James Allen

              were experiencing a bump in growth, the state commissioner of education (or something like that) went to the Sachem School District. They showed him, this tiny little old man, basically getting lost in a sea of students on News12. This was the sort of district that would usually have around 1100-1200 people in a graduating class, at least, before they split up the high schools.

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:34:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Good point. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, geoneb

              My high school had a graduating class of around 400 students.  I thought that was a pretty good size, but around here they're insane.

              (And, in fairness, a lot of the reason for larger high schools in Texas IS football... but that's a whole different debate.)

              29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

              by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:37:52 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I could see 400 being okay (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                TDDVandy

                Honestly my school was too small too offer much.  Each season had a single sport (soccer but not football, etc).  Clubs were pretty sparse and not much in terms of AP classes (you had to go to the community college for advanced work).

                But the positives were plentiful too.  There are larger districts nearby (15 miles away) that people can attend if they move that small distance and get all the largesse.  

                People certainly factor in schools with their living decisions...except if you grew on a 3rd generation farm that can't easily be moved :-)

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:44:23 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yeah. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  rdw72777

                  The high school as a whole had around 2000 students.  You had pretty much any sport that the state sanctioned and a good number of AP classes.

                  Which is kind of the point.  Any bigger than that, and it's not like you can offer anything more to the kids.

                  29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

                  by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:47:04 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Your last sentence (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    WisJohn, TDDVandy

                    Really is the key.  Anything larger than that and the emphsais seems to be lowering overhead as a smaller school would have increased facilities and administration.

                    I've never quite understood how parents could get comfortable sending their kids to a school so big.  Maybe it's my own experience, but how do you not feel lost in the masses each and every day.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:50:41 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I don't get it, either (0+ / 0-)

                      But if you live in the Dallas or Houston metro areas (or, honestly, San Antonio and Austin), your options are rather... limited.

                      Basically, the public high schools in Houston that aren't huge are either (a) depopulated inner-city schools or (b) far, far out into the exurbs.  The smallest you're going to get other than those two are around 2,000 students.  Which isn't TOO bad.

                      I mostly agree with you, but a lot of parents apparently like the idea of sending their kids to those schools.  Some of it, certainly, is that the oversized high schools tend to be good schools academically (at least, by reputation) so I guess that's a fair trade-off.

                      29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

                      by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:58:39 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I went to a magnet school in Austin (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        DCCyclone

                        And Austin suburbs have really good schools (Westlake, etc.)

                        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:11:19 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  When you went to this school, (3+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          jncca, James Allen, geoneb

                          did you have to be careful about the amount of metal you carried with you?

                          How are the kids supposed to learn if they can't even fit in the building?

                          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                          by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:12:41 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            DCCyclone

                            The magnet school was housed in a school on the east side (read: ghetto) where security was taken... very seriously. My senior year alone saw a race riot that resulted in around 50 people being expelled and two bomb threats (one legit and one not) that required a complete school shutdown (we were locked in the rooms, no evacuation).

                            Almost all of my friends were not in the magnet program. They were neighborhood kids. I hate to say this, but most of the magnet kids were huge nerds and I was the rare intelligent prep who happened to get alone better with ghetto black girls that I did with stuck up band geeks.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:19:33 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That (0+ / 0-)

                            was a much more serious reply. I thought the Zoolander reference at the end would have tipped you off about the joe about magnets and metal, as in actual magents and not a name for a school.

                            Oh well. My high school had at least one bomb threat that I remember, but it was around 1999-2000, and it was only made because the kid wanted more time for winter break. Seriously. Apparently, he didn't realize sending the bomb threat from his own house (I think) would make it easy for the authorities to track him down. There was also some sort of cafeteria food fight that was actually classified as a riot due to some county law or some such bullshit, but I missed that as I was in the library at the time.

                            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                            by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:24:18 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

      •  As I said below, if the taxpayers really (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TDDVandy

        have a problem with it, they can vote it down. Or can't they?

        It's much less offensive than when a college decides to do something similar and there's really no way to vote your disapproval besides not going there or transferring. And it's far, far less offensive than when dumb politicians give tax breaks so a stadium can be built, usually for investors that could spend the money themselves.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:24:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          The thing they do, though, is put all the rest of the stuff in the same bond package.

          That way, if you're voting down the football stadium, you're voting down STEM spending as well.

          29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

          by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:36:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But (0+ / 0-)

            Not a chance in hell a football only bond would get voted down anyways, right?

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:41:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Probably not. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, LordMike

              This IS Texas, after all.

              Though I suppose if they had a tax increase, it might get voted down.  This IS a land full of Tea Party fucks, after all.

              29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

              by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:44:40 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'd take that bet (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                TDDVandy, LordMike

                I bet even a tax increase couldn't stop it.  There are numerous justifications (real and delusional)  that could sway a TP'er

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:48:13 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Wow, and I thought Odessa, TX (0+ / 0-)

      were devoted to their HS football.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:10:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They probably are (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TDDVandy

        There's probably not as much history and devotion in these rapid growth and new school districts, but there's more money and more evrything else so it just seems worse.  

        I'd imagine the "cult of football" is big everywhere in Texas though.

        Besides if someone told me we could build a new stadium and ag center and STEM center without raising taxes I'd vote for it too...who wouldn't.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:39:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Basically, yeah. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Outside of the inner cities and some of the border areas (where soccer, not football, is the sport), it's big basically everywhere.

          On the other hand... small towns in Texas really aren't THAT much different from similar-sized towns in the Midwest and the rest of the South in this respect.

          29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

          by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:41:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Why would Odessa, TX (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        need to build a new stadium? If I recall correctly, the wood used to construct their current stadium was taken directly from Noah's Arc. (Apparently, these people were for reclaimed wood WAY before it was cool.) So it's like totally blessed by Jesus and stuff.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:43:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Serious question: (0+ / 0-)

      does the district even come close to justifying that in size? My high school wouldn't, but perhaps the one in your district does. While there are probably better uses for the money, if there are enough people to fill the seats, at least it would be used.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:15:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  In a word: yes. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        One of the high schools regularly sells out the current stadium (which seats 10,000, I believe.)

        The real reason is that all of the high schools in the district (there are now seven) use the current stadium, which leads to a lot of conflicts.  The cost is a little bit of overkill, but at least here they'd probably make some of that money back on ticket sales.

        29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

        by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:19:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  This doesn't sound that ridiculous, especially (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rdw72777, TDDVandy, ehstronghold

          considering that it's probably over 30 years, that the district is probably growing, and that even if they don't make money, they probably won't lose it. Expensive, yes, but I have no frame of reference for what it should cost.

          I should also say that if there's really an issue with it, the taxpayers can vote it down.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:21:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Frame of reference (0+ / 0-)

            Allen in the Dallas area built a football stadium that opened last year for $60 million.

            And yes, the district is growing like crazy.  The old stadium actually works just fine, but like I said, the problem is when you've got seven schools (possibly nine in the future) sharing a single stadium, you're often trying to cram three or four games in there in one week, which is a problem.

            29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

            by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:25:22 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Just Think How Many Texas Kids Could Be Insured... (5+ / 0-)

      ....for the cost of this play park.  Don't mess with Texas????  Somebody needs to!

    •  Well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv, JohnnyBoston, lordpet8

      This turned into quite the derail. I appreciate that this is actually something on the ballot, but most of this thread has absolutely nothing to do with elections.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:11:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  not as bad as DC wanting to host the 2024 Olympics (0+ / 0-)

      If DC is foolish enough to land the 2024 summer Olympic games, it will cost the tax payers several billion dollars.  Dumb dumb dumb.

    •  yeah, that'll pay for itself (0+ / 0-)

      Texas.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:29:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Finding Democrats to Run With Wendy Davis (5+ / 0-)

    I don't know whether to be happy that the TDP is scouring the state to find Democrats to run with her or depressed that it's such a struggle to find people willing to step up to the plate. Whatever the case, I ask you guys, who might run with her? Via Political Wire.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:19:10 AM PDT

    •  I think (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, James Allen

      there's already a candidate for Comptroller, or at least one who formed an exploratory committee.

      29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

      by TDDVandy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:35:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      geoneb

      I should be pretty damn pumped, I think. There's some quote about not playing the game with the team you want but the team you get, or something similar with battle, isn't there? Or I could just quote myself and say that I'm less concerned about the person having the right background and more concerned about this person being willing to fight for the role.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:40:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Priorities USA is positioning itself to (10+ / 0-)

    get behind Clinton.

    The people familiar with the plans said Priorities is developing a different mission than Ready for Hillary, a group started earlier this year by ardent Clinton supporters and now backed by longtime Clinton associates. While Ready for Hillary is focused on grassroots organizing, Priorities is planning to become what one of the sources called “the big money vehicle” that would produce and air expensive television advertisements.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
    •  Suggests no Biden campaign (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ramesh

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:11:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why? (0+ / 0-)

        They just want to prepare for the most likely nominee. That would be Hillary whether Biden runs or not.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:24:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It means Obama's (0+ / 0-)

          organization is not going to be promoting Biden. That means Biden will have next to nothing in terms of institutional support, at least compared to Clinton's. That also means its impossible for him to seriously challenge her.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:36:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  some local things (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, KyleinWA

    Metro President Tom Hughes announced he's running for re-election next year.

    Salem-area Republican state Rep Kevin Cameron tweeted that he'll "announce a bid for a new way to better serve our community."  in about 45 minutes. That could mean running against Kurt Schrader, running in swingy senate district 10, where the incumbent Republican is over 70 and likely to retire, or perhaps something else.

    Also something I'm reading right now about Californians moving to other states.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:16:56 AM PDT

    •  As far as state-to-state migration goes, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, bfen

      I never know what to think of popular articles the one you linked to. This link tells me that "391,440 native born relocated from another state and "476,156 native born left California for another state." That's a sizable chunk of people, but where are they going? It's not really Colorado, as NPR suggests, but Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Washington, and Oregon, according to this link.

      Lots of people are moving out of California, but how many are moving in? According to the last link, about 59,000 left California for Texas, but about 37,000 left Texas for California. Perhaps there's some quirk that makes the effect described in the NPR article more legitimate than I believe, but Texas is a huge state, and a net gain of 22,000 people doesn't seem like it will dramatically alter the political landscape. Nor will it be altered in many other states, at least not in any pronounced way.

      Am I missing something here?

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:45:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  and its neither (0+ / 0-)

      he's running for Marion County Commission.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:03:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-Comptroller: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, James Allen, fisher1028

    According to the latest Quinnipac poll, Spitzer's lead over Stringer is gone (19%!) and now they are in a dead heat at 46 each.

    In other news form that poll, it seems the Public Advocate role is largely unknown.

    •  That's why I'm taking Q NYC polls w. a huge grain (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fisher1028

      of salt. They have de Blasio close to 40% which is the treshold required, and they got him blowing out everybody in the run-off. And now they have Spitzer and Stringer tied.

      They're all over the place, and I'm totally ignoring their polls.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:35:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Whoa (0+ / 0-)

      Good news.

      There were rumors sometime that Cuomo might get involved and endorse Stringer.

      With Filner resigning, it would be good to have Weiner and Spitzer both losing as well.

      •  Spitzer shouldn't be compared those two (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fisher1028, ArkDem14

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:01:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  hmm, I definitely dont see how the GOP (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, R30A

          can criticize him while saying nothing about David Vitter.

          But what he did was illegal, and he did  it while he was AG, prosecuting others for prostitution, so I'd rather Stringer win.

        •  None of the three should be compared to the others (6+ / 0-)

          Weiner had consensual, non-physical sexual interactions with women not his wife.

          Filner sexually harassed subordinates and people who came to him for assistance.

          Spitzer had consensual sexual interactions with women for pay, in violation of the law.

          Only one of these people broke a criminal law. Only one of them was engaged in non-consensual activity. Only one exploited his office. Only one had actual physical intercourse.

          Aside from being sleazy Democrats who resigned in disgrace they have little in common with each other.

          You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

          by Gpack3 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:25:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thank you (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, tommypaine, JBraden

            I hate seeing them all lumped in like that.  Filner is complete garbage.  Spitzer was hypocritical in that he prosecuted prostitution while engaging in it himself (but I'm less judgmental of him for the most part, as I think prostitution should be legal).  Weiner did possibly the least of all of them, but acted a fool when he got caught.

          •  Hmm, not quite (4+ / 0-)

            Weiner had non-physical sexual interactions with women not his wife, many of which were consensual and some of which consisted of him sending photographs of his genitals unsolicited to women with whom he had corresponded in a non-sexual context (which is sexual harassment).

            Mayor Filner sexually harassed subordinates and people who came to him for assistance and assaulted some of them.

            Then-Gov. Spitzer had consensual sexual interactions with women for pay, in violation of the law.

            Both Weiner and Filner demonstrated predatory behavior, the legality of which is suspect at best. Only Filner has faced legal action for what he did to women, and only Filner physically harassed and manhandled women. And Spitzer is in a completely different category; hell, if I were writing the laws, he wouldn't have broken any laws, unless he used state resources to abet and/or cover up his actions.

            Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:11:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Fair enough (0+ / 0-)

              I haven't followed the Filner and Weiner stories closely enough to know all the nitty gritty, but they're still leagues apart in severity.

              You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

              by Gpack3 on Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 12:29:07 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  agree - embarrassments to national Dems (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32
    •  Keep in mind... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      ...these polling get every NYC election wrong.  Sometimes not the actual victors but often the margins.  And that is just for the Mayor's race.

      Another thing to keep in mind is this race is not going to be like 2009 where there was little action in the Mayor's race and the down ballot races likes Comptroller drove turnout.  People are going to be pulled in to the polls by the Mayoral candidates.  And depending on what demographics those candidates pull in the other races will turn.

      I like this part.

      Only 20 percent of Democratic likely primary voters could name a candidate in the Democratic primary for New York City Public Advocate. While 72 percent said they could not name a candidate, 7 percent said they could, but then named someone who is not a candidate.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 01:00:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Weird Utah medical marijuana poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    According to the libertarian-leaning Libertas Institute, a majority (61%) of Utahns support medical marijuana, even while 57% do not support full legalization. Libertas did apparently use religion as a criteria, and according to them, 71% of Mormons don't support full legalization, but only 34% don't support medical marijuana.

    This support may be helped by the recent news about a Mormon Utahn mom who wants to legalize medical marijuana to help her son with Dravet Syndrome.

    Still, I'm fairly skeptical, since y'know, it's Utah.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:42:18 AM PDT

    •  I found out Utah gives a tax credit (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      for electric vehicles. Many other states do as well, but Utah? That surprised me.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:48:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think that may have been Huntsman's doing (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        He wasn't too bad on those kind of issues (though I'd like to remind everybody that Huntsman was nowhere near a moderate).

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:58:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Medical marijuana polls around 80% nationally (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, Gygaxian, Stephen Wolf, Berliozian

      With numbers like that, you would expect all 50 states to be in favor, with even a majority of Republicans on board.  The reason it doesn't happen everywhere is the same reason background checks for guns, raising the minimum wage, civil unions, and importing medicine from Canada doesn't happen.

  •  RIP Joan Krajewski (4+ / 0-)

    Legendary Philadelphia City Councilwoman, serving from 1980-2012 on behalf of her lower Northeast district.

    Perhaps most fondly remembered, however, as one-half of the Boom-Boom Sisters.  Steve Lopez, 7-21-1988, at the Democratic National Convention:

    Next thing I know, Tartaglione comes over to chat, and later on, Krajewski joins us. What I like about them is they don't sip fruity drinks with umbrellas in them. They drink beer.

    Krajewski says it's a little boring down here because they don't have any casinos, but she's determined to find a slot machine somewhere.  Krajewski and Councilwoman Ann Land, in case you forgot, went to Las Vegas last year for a National League of Cities convention. Unfortunately for the Boom-Boom Sisters , a reporter, in disguise, followed them and found out they didn't do much besides play slot machines.  "This is a shame," Krajewski said. "You've got the Boom-Boom Sisters in town and no slot machines."

    ... We closed the place about 3 a.m., and the next night, when I got back to the hotel following Jesse Jackson's speech, Tartaglione and Krajewski were at the same bar, same seats. So I asked if they were in the Omni arena for Jackson's speech.  "We were there, but we went out to get a drink," Krajewski said, "and when we tried to get back in we were locked out."  

    So I invited them to go shopping. We decided to do it yesterday, after the morning caucus and other meetings for Pennsylvania delegates. ...

  •  OT NY redistricting for David (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Quick question. Have you been following the latest developments in the Favors case and what it may been if anything? I should probably read Judge Mann's order.

    •  Yes, I occasionally check the docket (0+ / 0-)

      But there had been almost nothing of consequence for a long time until the other day, when Judge Mann ruled mostly in favor of plaintiffs (Democrats) on a motion to compel the defendants (Republicans) to turn over a whole bunch of documents that they previously had refused to provide.

      Right now, it seems like we're mainly waiting for the judges to rule on the GOP's pending motions for summary judgment. If those motions are denied (in full or in part), then we'd likely head to trial unless a settlement is reached. But time is starting to grow short, especially since appeals are likely.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 02:58:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA-Gov: thoughts on Green Tech attack (11+ / 0-)

    I was worried about the Green Tech hits earlier, but that issue increasingly is looking to me like this year's version of the Creigh Deeds "thesis" attack on McDonnell 4 years ago.  That is, overdone, poorly executed, and ineffective.  McAuliffe doesn't seem to be really bleeding at all.

    But TMac's attacks on Cuccinelli have been working.  Thus, TMac staked out and has held a modest lead that is more significant now that it's held with undecideds greatly shrinking.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:11:54 AM PDT

    •  Do you think it's mostly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      because of the way the attack was framed and implemented or because of the substance? I haven't followed this at all, but I remember reading a Post article about it a few weeks ago. There wasn't really anything connecting Terry McAuliffe to anything bad. It just looked shady.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:15:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A little of both (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer, bjssp

        Like the thesis, it's too little by itself.  You can't hammer on one story and make it the message.  Voters reject that.  You have to have a message that tells a broader story about a candidate and have lots of stories to illustrate (i.e., "prove") it.

        So the substance is too little, and the attack is framed wrongly by focusing exclusively on that one tidbit.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:25:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Seems like a good metaphor (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      T-Mac has run a pretty good campaign so far. I tended to dismiss the "worst candidate ever" stuff as overblown, but honestly he's exceeded my expectations. He's exactly where he should be at this point, and with only two months left it's the Cooch who looks out of bullets.

    •  I'm just worried about the SEC (0+ / 0-)

      investigation itself. Not sure how involved McAuliffe is with it, and if they fine nothing or relative minor infraction against the company, then I guess it's okay.

      But just having the investigation out there worries me. It's the potential of drip, drip drip.

      •  But there's been no drip (0+ / 0-)

        That's why it's not hurting, Star Scientific really has been a constant drip but Green Tech has not been.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:26:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  New Orleans: Booming and rolling in Cash (6+ / 0-)

    At least that's what this article is reporting:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/...

    “New Orleans was once unappealing to many investors because it was thought of as a giant bar,” said Cummings, the 48-year-old chief executive officer of Ekistics Inc. and a native of the city. Today, “more and more people choose the city for its quality of life. New Orleans has a lot to offer. It’s sexy, it’s vibrant, it’s full of life.”
    This year through May, commercial real estate transactions in the Big Easy totaled $424.7 million, up 41 percent from the $301.1 million in all of 2012, according to New York-based Real Capital Analytics Inc. New Orleans was the only U.S. market among 55 tracked by the research firm in which sales have surpassed last year’s total.
    Basically, here's what some folks are saying:
    “New Orleans could have easily hit bottom like Detroit, but instead all this money was coming in,” he said. “It’s reignited and been giving rise to this entrepreneurial spirit in the city that’s fueling new businesses, new ideas and opportunities for developers like us.”

    Schwartz said he’s counting on demand spurred by such projects as BioDistrict, a 1,500-acre (607-hectare) downtown development that will include two hospitals, research facilities, offices and retail. It’s expected to create 4,000 jobs initially and 20,000 within two decades, according to James McNamara, BioDistrict’s president and chief executive officer.

    I understand all this, and do think its great. New Orleans had been stagnant and trapped in a divide of old money and simple poverty with very little middle class. New money coming into the city from outside is a good thing, but I don't want to see New Orleans made into a boutique city, and I agree that Mitch Landrieu and New Orleans leaders have not done enough for the poorer black residents of the city; this new money and these new projects are primarily benefits non-black and new immigrants to the city. This is partially what creates such an enormous crime dynamic there.

    But I'm hoping it is part of their plans, though the cynic in me says no, it would be nice to see a major city become a model for both smart growth and not be divided by income stratification. In any case, this is all pretty good news for Mary Landrieu. The city is growing so rapidly that a good turnout organization could likely get the total numbers of votes cast in 2014 to exceed those cast in 2008. What's more is that there was always a pretty good sized segment of which white elites in the city that did not like the Landrieus and were staunch Republicans. This time around it seems like a lot of the prominent movers in shakers of that circle are actively promoting Mary Landrieu and pouring money into her coffers. She may get her biggest ever percentage in Orleans Parish. I'd say around 85%.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:25:47 AM PDT

    •  Over the long term, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      if we have any chance of climbing back in the state, it'll come in a big way from NO. The city has a long way to go before its population gets as big as it was in 2000, but it's got to start somewhere.

      Leaving aside how much or how little Landrieu and others have done for nonwhites, how easy is it to build in the city? I don't mean to sound like Yglesias here, but the more dense it is, the more people that could live there and thus the easier it might be to get strong numbers out of the city

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:33:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's still a lot of empty (0+ / 0-)

        space in the city; that's where these huge developments and billions of dollars are pouring into.

        And the city doesn't have that far to go anymore. Probably only about 70,000 more people at this point. At current growth rates it would reach that in 6-7 years.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:38:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Some of you might not like to hear this, but (0+ / 0-)

      quite frankly, New Orleans is a doomed city. It will be the first major casualty of climate change, from the combination of rising sea levels and more frequent and stronger hurricanes. Also, aside from the sheer stupidity of living below sea level on the coast (I mean, what an incredibly idiotic idea!), the cost of rebuilding the city every ten years is huge.

      The next time a hurricane strikes New Orleans, Congress should appropriate money - not to rebuild the city, but to move all the residents of Jefferson, Orleans, St. Bernard, and Plaquemines Parishes inland to a safer location. Then, once everyone's out, get rid of the damn levees and let sea level be what it should be. Trying to mess with nature like New Orleans did is never a good idea, and I would have thought that people would have realized this after Katrina.

      All of this is a very long way of saying that the Louisiana Democratic Party should not pin its hopes on New Orleans. Instead, I think it should really focus on the Baton Rouge area, which is both growing and trending Democratic. A big chunk of the relocated New Orleansers will probably settle in or near Baton Rouge, which can then become a major nationwide city.

      Finally, even if nothing is done, Baton Rouge will probably overtake New Orleans in population in the not-too-distant future.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:00:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Huh? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        The Baton Rouge area will not be overtaking the NOLA area anytime soon as the difference is over 400,000 people.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:04:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You should reread the post (0+ / 0-)

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:16:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Why? (0+ / 0-)

            I understood his point about the levees, but that is never going to happen.

            And his last point (under the context of previously talking about the cities' areas) was that even if nothing like that is done, that Baton Rouge metro will outgrow NOLA metro. That won't happen at all anytime soon and probably not ever.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:26:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You added the word 'metro' (0+ / 0-)

              I never used that word, especially not for the comparison of the two cities' populations.

              (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

              by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:29:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yo (0+ / 0-)
                Jefferson, Orleans, St. Bernard, and Plaquemines Parishes inland to a safer location.
                Baton Rouge area
                It was implicit in the language that you used.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:34:59 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not talking about the metropolitan areas (0+ / 0-)

          Eventually, the Baton Rouge area will surpass that of NOLA, but that will take much more time.

          The city of New Orleans is losing population, and fast. It was losing population even before Katrina, and I see no reason why that trend won't continue. My guess is that New Orleans's population will have its post-Katrina peak sometime this decade, and then resume its inevitable downward trend.

          Baton Rouge, on the other hand, has never lost population in any census. Especially when (not if) there's another hurricane, many people will move from NO to BR.

          (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

          by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:27:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, yes you are (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            but you don't even realize it:

            Jefferson, Orleans, St. Bernard, and Plaquemines Parishes inland to a safer location.
            Baton Rouge area
            It was implicit in the language that you used.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:35:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  You obviously don't know Louisianans (0+ / 0-)

            People down here don't give a shit about hurricanes, not even after Katrina. Native south Louisianans have a dangerously lasseix faire "if it happens, whatever" attitude about hurricanes. They don't move away because of them. My 87 year old great-grandfather didn't even leave his house in Houma, Louisiana during Katrina or Rita because it was his opinion that if he died, he'd die where he lived. Not of my family left South Louisiana at any time then. In fact, the opinion was that leaving was the sign of being a transplant or not being a true Cajun.

            But your main point is just laughably wrong. New Orleans is not losing population anymore; it's one of the fastest growing cities in America and the site of major public investment and some huge new projects that will continue to create jobs and pull people. It's a more revitalized city now than it has been for decades, and most of the reason it ever lost population had to do with white flight; whites moving to Metarie, Kenner, Westwego, or St. Tammany Parish.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 11:37:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  While this is what /should/ happen (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv

        it's incredibly unlikely that Congress will just appropriate the at minimum tens of billions needed to fairly and effectively relocate everyone.

        I could maybe see a country in northern Europe taking such a measure or heck even in east Asia, but our federal government never would in a case like New Orleans. Republicans basically left it to drown after Katrina in terms of what they provided.

        •  How much did Congress spend (0+ / 0-)

          to rebuild New Orleans after Katrina? I mean the total amount.

          It was probably a lot, and this country would undoubtedly save money in the long run if we relocated everyone once rather than rebuilding New Orleans every ten years (on average) for the foreseeable future.

          (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

          by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:36:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's a ridiculous estimate (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoosierD42

            Please stop talking about things you don't know about, in a state you've probably never visited, and a historic place that happens to be the home and root for many people, their culture, and their identity (myself included, since you are basically including all the bulk of coastal Louisiana with that statement).

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 11:39:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  You're talking about abandoning (0+ / 0-)

        a huge chunk of the state after enormous projects to free up more of the Mississippi river's silt flow to the area. Subsission and the loss of silt have been the principle problems, not climate-related ocean rices, and quite frankly that suggest and tone just irritates me. The barrier islands have eroded because the source of sediment was cut off; that man hurricanes worse. Louisiana has already lost a chunk of land the size of Delaware, mind you, since the 1930s. The levee system in New Orleans does work quite well (and not all of the city is below sea level, it's a basin), and I anticipate that technology should be able to keep up with the environment for quite some time. The city would have weathered Katrina with minimal damage had it not been for the weakness of one small section of levee and an outdated pumping system.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 11:33:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  VA-Gov: LCV has TMac up 44-37 (10+ / 0-)

    Confirms the reliability of other polls we have seen recently with TMac up in mid single digits.

  •  AR-04: Darr dropping out (10+ / 0-)

    Blue Hog Report, a liberal leaning blog, caught a whole bunch of problems with Darr's campaign finance reports from the last few years. Darr filed a complaint against himself with the ethics commission. He is now the third person in Arkansas to be involved in a campaign finance scandal. The other two are Democrats, Martha Shoffner and Paul Bookout. The question is whether Darr's case is so bad that it means jail (Shoffner), resignation (Bookout), or just something else.

    Regardless, this is good for Democrats as well. Darr was more conservative than Westerman.

    http://talkbusiness.net/...

    •  I was just about to post this in the comments! :) (0+ / 0-)

      Another GOP idiot bites the dust...

      And so far, we've got one Democrat running in AR-05 and she's Janis Percefull, who also is pretty much a progressive at this point.

      Website:  http://www.jkpercefullforcongress.com/

      Donate:  https://services.myngp.com/...

      •  There's much more viable candidates possible (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MrLiberal

        Greg Hale, a prominent rancher and Dem benefactor, is being courted.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 11:03:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Has no chance at all (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, James Allen, DCCyclone

        I'd like to see a State Senator or a State Representative run here.

        We could have easily gotten 43-45% of the vote last year in AR-04 just by running a decent campaign. I'm not sure we can win, but we can definitely get closer.

        •  She's barely even campaigned (0+ / 0-)

          There's no basis to say Janis Percefull has no chance at all unless she's had a chance to do much campaigning.

          •  Well, is a progressive going to win AR-04? (5+ / 0-)

            Is someone with no name recognition going to be able to fight the uphill battle in a Republican seat?

            You can say what you want about Gene Jeffress, but he was a known quantity from his time in the State Senate.

            •  It depends on how the campaigning goes (0+ / 0-)

              Bear in mind, I make no assumptions on how Janis Percefull's campaign will fair out.  That will really depend on the next number of months and any potential Democratic candidates who jump in the race.

              There have been instances where someone with no name recognition (or say just "some guy") has managed to run a credible race in a Republican seat.  Just ask how Rep. Jerry Mcnerney started off in running for Congress in California's 11th Congressional District in 2004.  He had no history in politics and just got on the ballot in 2004 as a write-in candidate because his son thought Mcnerney was the best candidate to run.  Well, Mcnerney ended up getting quite a number of votes as a write-in candidate and ran in 2006, defeating Richard Pombo, considered to be one of the most powerful Republicans in Congress then and also the most anti-environment Republican in the House of Representatives.  Since then, Mcnerney, originally being "some guy" has won re-election in 2008, 2010, and 2012.

              Would it be better to support a more well-known candidate?  Sure.  If our goal at this point is to focus on winning back the House in addition to keeping the Senate, then better-known candidates may be what we'll be able to get for the time being.

              However, we have not seen any interviews, videos or much full coverage of Janis Percefull so I say it's premature to make judgments in this case until we know what happens in the next number of weeks and months.  

              •  we can get someone better (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone

                and there's a good chance we will since its open.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 12:04:12 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I will say (6+ / 0-)

                you have to consider the seat.  We remember McNerney's victory fondly, but it was a 45% Kerry seat, and quickly turning blue (54% Obama 2008) and we vacuumed up a bunch in that range in 2006-2008.

                AR-04 on the other hand is going the wrong direction, and fast (36% Obama 2012).  We need a Blue Dog to even have a chance here, and even then, it's not a great chance.  It would be one of the reddest seats in the country to elect a Democrat.

                •  McNerney also received help from outside environ. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades

                  groups who spent over 1 million dollars attacking Pombo to win. If some groups wants to spend millions on this race, then that wouldn't help but Democrats probably would still be the underdog in this district.

                  •  That's a rather narrow-sided statement (0+ / 0-)
                    If some groups wants to spend millions on this race, then that wouldn't help but Democrats probably would still be the underdog in this district.
                    Ignoring the fact that Alison Grimes is getting a lot of fundraising and help from inside and outside of Kentucky, like Arkansas, KY did not give President Obama much support in 2008 or 2012 (the percentage win Obama got in 2012 in both AR and KY was around the same percentage).  Perhaps AR-04 is trending more red but at least part of it could be that folks can't stand Obama.  Same argument throughout KY.  However, Grimes herself is not a blue dog Democrat (from what I understand) and she may have a chance at running a real credible race at this point.  She knows how to communicate to voters, she's very focused and has good messages to run on.

                    Second, how are you certain that spending millions in a AR-04 Congressional District wouldn't help?  I don't recall previous elections in AR-04 (unless I'm mistaken) where the district was a big target for Democratic fundraising yet you make the assessment that millions won't help anyway.  Quite a number of Congressional races in this country don't get any support from the DCCC.  However, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch got 45% in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District in the special election race recently.  You could argue that it didn't help Colbert-Busch but 45% is pretty good in a deep red district like SC-01.  Maybe that was just a special election race but Colbert-Busch was able to be effective at her message and even won Romney 2012 supporters over.

                •  A Blue Dog might not run a good campaign though (0+ / 0-)

                  I go back to the time when Howard Dean was running in the Democratic presidential primaries in 2004 and he mentioned this evangelical Christian voter approaching him, saying she's voting for him because "He's got conviction."  And Dean is a genuine progressive Democrat, always has been.

                  Assuming we'd need a blue dog Democrat at this point is just taking the easy route but that's not always going to be the best route.  There can be a number of reasons why voters decide to vote Republican but it may not always be the Tea Party case.

                  We still haven't gone into detail on why exactly AR-04 is going more in red territory.  Could it be that Democrats are just not good at messaging and communicating in AR-04 or is it that the district's residents are just being brainwashed by Tea Party politics?

                  •  Why assume Blue Dogs don't have convictions? (6+ / 0-)

                    Some of them like Kurt Schrader and Mike McIntyre seem to be principled moderate to conservative Democrats.

                    Also, a progressive candidate is no less likely to run a shitty campaign. And we know why this district is going Republican. It has been conservative for a long time, and because the parties are getting more polarized, that means that it is shifting from being represented by conservative Democrats to conservative Republicans.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:34:00 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Blue Dog Democrats do have convictions (0+ / 0-)

                      But the argument I was referring to basically said "We need to run a Blue Dog Democrat."  I interpreted that as code for just simply running a blue dog Democrat.

                      The truth is, there are blue dog Democrats that have done good contributions to the Democratic Party and to their constituents.  However, my point is, based on the comment I was responding to, we cannot assume that a blue dog Democrat by nature will be an effective candidate.

                      And you're right:  Progressive candidates can potentially run crappy campaigns.

                      But on your point of polarization, if that's the case for why AR-04 is becoming more red, then the Democratic candidate will have to run without being polarizing.

                      •  Wasn't arguing that all Blue Dogs (0+ / 0-)

                        are superior candidates.  Blue Dog Gene Jeffress ran one of the worst campaigns last year and only outran Barack Obama by a couple points.  That said, we need a Blue Dog in a district like this to even have a chance.  Alan Grayson isn't getting elected in AR-04 any more than Michele Bachmann is getting elected in IL-10.

                        •  Point taken (0+ / 0-)

                          I do believe it still, in the end, boils down to how a candidate articulates his/her message but it may be the case that a blue dog Democrat will be more likely to articulate the message as a candidate than a progressive like Janis Percefull.

                          •  It isn't just about the ability to articulate the (0+ / 0-)

                            message, but the message itself. This district will never, ever, ever elect a progressive, even if that progressive is the most articulate person ever.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 02:47:59 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                  •  AR-04 is getting red (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, NMLib, sacman701, jncca

                    because it's a conservative district.  Voters are clearly pro-life, pro-gun, anti-gay, distrustful of government spending, and believe in low taxes.  In the past, districts such as these supported conservative Blue Dog Democrats.  East Oklahoma, East Texas, Rural Louisiana, north Alabama, and rural Tennessee (except for the eastern part of the state), and the counties bordering Leon County (Tallahassee) in Florida were the same way.  But all that is changing, and it's not because AR-04 Democrats are bad at messaging or any other reason specific to that area.  It's a regional shift independent of what state parties are doing.  The most logical explanation is that these conservative areas are simply voting for the conservative party now, whereas in the past the Democratic Party had a huge conservative wing that was nonetheless loyal to the party.  Republicans also used to have a liberal wing too, this is a big change that has hit both parties over the past 60 years.

                    This is a shift that AR-04 Democrats are helpless to stop, though some of the damage can be mitigated with good campaigns, emphasizing areas where Republicans are out of step (minimum wage, tax breaks for millionaires), local popularity, intelligent campaigning, capitalizing on mistakes by their opponents, and raising money.  It's actually the same playbook for Republicans to win in historically GOP areas that now support Democrats (Connecticut, New Hampshire, Philadelphia suburbs, New Jersey, Chicago suburbs, parts of California...)  But this is still swimming against the tide.  We may get lucky in seats like this from time to time, but those victories will become as rare as Republicans winning Vermont.

                    •  Yes, this is Mike Ross' district. (3+ / 0-)

                      The best bet would be to run as a blue dog, emphasize local issues, and hitch your ride to Mike Ross' governor's campaign and hope the Republicans nominate a nutjob.

                    •  I mean (0+ / 0-)

                      we only can do so much in a Southern, majority white district without any major cities.

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:54:26 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  The Eastern part of the FL panhandle votes D (0+ / 0-)

                      downballot, and it has a very sizable black population, and college population. Plus Leon is growing at a faster pace, compared to the neighboring counties. They'll vote for certain kinds of Dems (white and not from South Florida) unfortunately that's the truth. Like Stephen Wolf said, "it's the deep South". So Dems like newly minted Dem Crist, Bill Nelson won there every time, Kathy Castor, and most certainly Gwen Graham can when there. Even Alex Sink won the part of the panhandle in 2010 in that snoozer of a campaign she ran. That's the only area of the South I disagree with you on.

                      Alot of those Democrats in that part of Florida, are prejudice, and some I would say are racist. But overall I get your point

                      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 02:14:25 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  The eastern FL panhandle (0+ / 0-)

                        is a unique case.  Leon County itself is quite blue and has a sizable base of African-Americans, as well as Gadsen and Jefferson Counties nearby.  The surrounding counties though have shown a huge shifts since the 90s towards Republicans.

                        From 1996 to 2008, Wakulla went from Clinton +5 to McCain +25.  Taylor from Clinton +5 to McCain +35.  Lafayette from Dole +15 to McCain +61.  Liberty from Dole +2 to McCain +44.  Dixie from Clinton +9 to McCain +45.  You get the idea.  Those areas seem to have much in common with the other Blue Dog areas that have abandoned us.

                        I also neglected to mention West Virginia and Kentucky, which retain powerful Blue Dog Dem parties and continue to get elected to many statewide offices.  2014 will be a powerful indication of whether those states cannot escape the red tide, or whether the Blue Dogs have a bit of life left in them.

                        •  Yeah I understand your point (0+ / 0-)

                          But who thought Kerry or Obama were going to carry those counties. Like I said, they tend to vote for certain type of Dems statewide. Bubba who is a son of the is not a surprise, Gore did respectably well in some of those counties in Big Bend. FWIW, Lafayette is not part of the Panhandle and FL2, nor Dixie is part of FL2.

                          It definitely possible Hillary can carry that part of the Pandhandle. But because of the uniqueness of the FL's Eastern Panhandle, followed by the growth of Leon, and the voting of particular Dems in the surrounding counties, it won't be lost for Dems, compared to other parts of the South.

                          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                          by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 03:12:55 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                    •  Point taken (0+ / 0-)

                      Then as you mentioned, AR-04 Democrats are bad at messaging so that's something they will need to focus on long-term, if not for the 2014 cycle.

    •  Just wondering, do you have access to any data (0+ / 0-)

      such as lt. gov/sos by legislative district, etc, that you could share with us? Roguemapper has been compiling a statewide VTD file for the 2010 average of sos, lt gov, and land comm. as well as Obama 08, but the DRA VTDs don't exactly match up to the legislative districts.

      If you don't, I've just finished mapping out the senate in DRA and will have the 2010 average by district, but it would be nice to have exact numbers and particularly the individual races themselves.

    •  In the event that we were to have (0+ / 0-)

      Even a small outside shot of winning back AR-04, wouldn't we prefer the more conservative candidate to win the GOP nomination?

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 03:00:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Man arrested for threatening Tulsi Gabbard (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    He was arrested in Tijuana and turned over to the FBI in San Diego. Its also apparently not the first time he has threatened her. Rep. Gabbard got a restraining order against him before when she was on the Honolulu city council because:

    “I, Aniruddha Sherbow, with the Divine as my witness, do hereby solemnly vow to find Tulsi Gabbard, wheresoever she may be, and to sever her head from her body,” he wrote.
    http://www.hawaiireporter.com/...
  •  Connectcut Experiment: Dannel Malloy (3+ / 0-)

    There's a lot to digest here about his record. I guess it's easier to implement a liberal/progressive agenda when you control everything, but that aside, if he runs in the future, the biggest stumbling block will probably be taxes. Given he took the opposite route of pretty much everyone aside from perhaps O'Malley and raised taxes on everyone, it seems like it'd be easy to bash him in a presidential race. Then again, if he were to run and win, wouldn't that mean being a legitimate tax raiser wasn't an albatross?

    I'd also say that if he can point to legitimate improvement in Connecticut's job creation record, that'd be a good starting point for some future campaign, given how piss poor it's been for some time.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 11:12:56 AM PDT

  •  Does Cory Booker Have Imaginary Friends? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    I don't know if this is enough to really be anything but embarrassing, particularly years down the line, if/when he runs for higher office, but I figured I'd pass this along.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 11:19:05 AM PDT

    •  Or so National Review was told (6+ / 0-)

      And we know how nonpartisan and evenhanded they are.

      I don't think we really have to be concerned with Booker talking to his invisible Snuffleupagus on the Senate floor.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 11:43:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The reaction to him is starting to remind me of (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        aamail6, SaoMagnifico, DCCyclone, JBraden

        Concerns about Angus King last cycle.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:53:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes but remember that one vote Sen. King took!? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn

          Rep. Pingree would have never done that!

          :P

          Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:04:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  This is much worse (7+ / 0-)

          At least King at least shunned the Democratic label, making suspicion more justified.

          Booker is a loyal Democrat and still is treated like he isn't.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:17:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Unfair expectations (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, Possible Liberal, askew

            I don't get it either. Booker takes money from Wall Street and is somewhat skeptical of teachers unions.  You can say that about 90-95 percent of the Democratic caucus.  

            Booker may defend Wall Street as well, but I don't remember Frank Lautenberg getting legislation passed to throw people that worked on Wall Street in jail.  He may have offered more fierce rhetoric and even sponsored legislation to tax those people a lot more. but it doesn't mean anything if you can't get it through.

            Booker is also help to a higher standard on foreign policy issues as well.  He supports a two state solution in the Middle East and yet for some reason he's criticized more than the rest of the Democratic caucus.

            I better quit talking about this.  I could go into detail why I think he is being treated this way, but I won't do so.  

            IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

            by BoswellSupporter on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:27:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Again, I have nothing against Booker. (0+ / 0-)

            I was just highlighting something I found.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:24:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I don't have anything against Booker. (0+ / 0-)

          I might not like his self-promotion, but I'd still vote for him without a lot of hesitation.

          I brought this up because it seems like the sort of thing that can hurt someone in an election.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:23:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  All of the quotes in that piece (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, DCCyclone, gabjoh

        Are from Booker allies.

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 03:02:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Unless there's another side to the story... (0+ / 0-)

          ...which for all I know there could be, that's a rare instance of actual journalism by NRO.  Emphasize "rare."

          But somehow I doubt Lonegan has a competent enough campaign to make anything of it.  Which is kinda too bad if Booker wants to be on a national ticket in the future, because it would help him to have to defend all his baggage right now, and be able in the future to call it old news and also know how to defend.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:33:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  we'll see (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Skaje, SaoMagnifico

      Right now, I tend to agree with the comment at politicalwire, that it may have been a composite to protect people's identities.

      We'll see what Booker has to say. I doubt it's a major issue though.

      •  I dont think it will be a big deal (0+ / 0-)

        His alleged homosexuality will be a much bigger deal than a possibly exaggerated/composite character.

        •  Newsworthy if true (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MetroGnome

          But little if any impact on the campaign.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:48:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Imagination friend or sexual orientation? (0+ / 0-)

            The former is a diversion and nobody will care about it tomorrow morning. The later will matter to a lot of voters. As much as we'd like it to be a nonissue, it will be. We aren't there yet as a country.

        •  Huh? (0+ / 0-)

          That's actually a thing? I thought that was just a sarcastic blogosphere response to Booker's revelation that he had been homophobic in the past.

          30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "'Let's talk about health care, Mackenzie!' 'Oh Amanda, I'd rather not; that's not polite!'"

          by The Caped Composer on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:31:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think he's gay (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, bjssp

          I suspect he's just a bachelor having fun...with women.

          I actually know guys like that in real life, guys I call close friends, guys well into their 40s who have never been married.  They are either commitment-phobes or womanizers, or both, but not gay.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:36:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Chris Hayes (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, DCCyclone, bjssp

            I just saw him discussing this on Chris Hayes, tonight, and while I wouldn't be surprised about his sexual orientation one way or the other, it really didn't come across as something he is trying to hide or is ashamed of.  He seems to genuinely not to want his sexual orientation to even matter one way or the other.  It didn't feel like the typical evasion by closeted politicians I've seen in the past; this felt different.  So, I'd not at all be surprised to find he's straight, and I'm really glad he's not playing the game that has always seemed to trap the media and politicians in some kind of existential battle about one's personal life.

  •  IL-GOP: Durkin wins St. House leadership election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, jncca

    Jim Durkin is a socially moderate Rep. from suburban Chicago who supports Michael Madigan's SB1 pension bill. He barely beat Raymond Poe, a downstate social conservative who supports the union-backed SB2404.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 12:00:27 PM PDT

  •  PPP to add cell phones: (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...
    Having taken pollster training, I can see why it's a pain to poll cell phones.  You can autodial landlines, it is illegal to do that with cells.  You have to manually dial each number.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 12:08:17 PM PDT

    •  Woops, missed your update on this. (0+ / 0-)

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 12:14:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Had to happen sooner or later (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike

      My grandma just got rid of her landline.  She's the most technophobic person I know, and she's finally comfortable enough with just using her cell phone (which she first got like 7 years ago).

      Either they get on board with polling cell phones, or they start using more magic sauce on the final results to get them representative in the future.  That has its own pitfalls as well.

    •  Inevitable (0+ / 0-)

      Even if getting good results, at some point you have to join the 21st century.  Robopolling landlines only is dead as a stand-alone business model.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:43:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hopefully I get a call from them soon (0+ / 0-)

      Seeing how many NC polls they do, I was kind of offended I hadn't been called yet, lol.  I didn't realize they couldn't call cell numbers, though - that seems really archaic and I don't know how they can be accurate by calling only landlines.

  •  KY House-Stumbo files motion for expulsion/censure (3+ / 0-)

    http://www.courier-journal.com/...

    He is clearly not messing around about Rep. John Arnold (D-Sturgis), who only won by 5 votes in 2012 and is accused of sexual assault/harassment. Talk is that he may resign soon, but if he doesn't, he would be out once the legislature comes back. His resignation would set up a special election probably in the late fall. His 2012 opponent is said to have been cut out of the newly drawn seat and would not meet the one year eligibility requirement if he wanted to run in the special. Dems should be favored here, but they may try to run against the scandal tarred Arnold. This is a 55% Dem seat in 2011 but a 65% Romney seat. The only market is Evansville, so expect a lot of money in a special election to be spent given how cheap the time will be on television and radio.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:12:01 PM PDT

    •  Any possible Dem candidates? (0+ / 0-)

      I checked and Union and Henderson County have fully Dem governments, but Daviess has a handful of GOP officers.

      Do you think this is the best route for Stumbo to go to avoid making this a party issue and to elbow out Arnold?

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:16:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Too early to tell on each (3+ / 0-)

        Kentucky has an odd way of picking nominees in special elections. Each county party chair gets a weighted vote by percentage that their county makes up of the district. While it might not look like it, Daviess County makes up a slight majority of the seat, so party leaders there have the votes to decide who the nominee is on both sides. State leaders may try to make some input, but I expect both nominees to be from Owensboro unless you have someone who has close ties to multiple counties. This seat will be different and similar things from the previous special election. Woodford County has the lowest unemployment in the state and this area also has unemployment far below the state average, but higher than Woodford. Also, most Dem state leaders lived within a very short drive of HD-56 or in it, while this seat is further away. The Owensboro area is also unpredictable in elections. The big variable is that this district is a big coal producer, which is where I expect the GOP to hit Dems hard. It may also become a proctor for the KY Senate race.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:42:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Just so long as Dems get a strong candidate (0+ / 0-)

          with the right credentials and abilities.  GradyDem posted this story on RRH and some commenter replied by saying it's a solid pickup likelihood (to which Grady rebutted by saying almost all county officers here are Dem).  Never mind the fact that Rep.  Arnold had heart surgery in early 2012 and was unable to campaign at all around primary time, his GOP opponent had raised almost as much money as him, and there was apparently a geographic split over supporting him.  If the Dems and GOP both recruit someone from Daviess County, I guess that nullifies any home field advantage there.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 04:04:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's the same way in New York (0+ / 0-)

          Remember when Joe Crowley was able to handpick the nominee single-handedly for some Queens-based district?

          25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:47:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'm glad Stumbo's taking it seriously (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen, MrLiberal

      This is what it takes to run a party effectively.  No BSing.

    •  Stumbo also suspended (3+ / 0-)

      his chairmanship of a powerful subcommittee. He will appoint an 8-member committee to investigate the matter. I would expect several women to be appointed to it.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:54:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-Sen: NRSC meets with another candidate (3+ / 0-)
    National Republican Senatorial Committee Vice Chairman Rob Portman met with potential Michigan Senate candidate Kimberly Small July 9 in Washington, a Portman adviser confirmed to POLITICO, another sign that the GOP field for the open seat may not be settled yet.

    Small, a district court judge in Oakland County, Mich., met with unspecified NRSC officials that week, The Washington Post reported at the time. Portman, an Ohio senator, is the committee’s vice chairman for finance.

    http://www.politico.com/...
  •  If McAuliffe wins (0+ / 0-)

    what are the chances he gets a job in Hillary Clinton's administration?  Veep?  Something else?

    •  If you take a VP candidate from VA, (11+ / 0-)

      why not Warner or even Kaine?

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:25:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think you're right (5+ / 0-)

        McAuliffe certainly isn't getting VP, especially if the choice is to try and get VA.  Warner, then Kaine, then my cousin, then McAuliffe in that order (Note: my cousin is not a viable candidate for dog catcher).

        I still think VP comes down to O'Malley or Hickenlooper for various reasons.  I like Hick for the help in CO and I wonder if O'Malley doesn't help in VA more than we think.  Of curse a surprise pick is always fun to speculate about, but I'm too practical.

        It'd be interesting if it were a Hispanic/Latino (I'll use both, I don't know which is right and can't read about it any more) for VP but I'm not sure who amongst the Dem options out there I really like.  Considering the GOP will probably pick Cruz/Rubio/Martinez I wonder if there will be a choice to respond with another on the Dem side.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:47:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why would O'Malley help in VA? (0+ / 0-)

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:36:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I can't answer for him but I imagine (0+ / 0-)

            The thinking would go that he's been an active governor of a nearby state, but what O'Malley has done hasn't really translated into renown in VA. The people in NOVA would be the most familiar with what he's accomplished in Maryland but they're voting with us anyway.

            Tim Kaine was runner-up to Joe Biden for Obama's VP choice and I think he'd be a GREAT pick for whoever wins our nomination in 2016. He'd compliment Hillary very well and give good balance to other possibilities as well if we have to resort to that. I actually would like Kaine to run for the big job himself at some point.

          •  he surely has a following of loyalists in his home (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            state who could be quickly deployed to do GOTV in Northern Virginia.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 07:45:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  The reason I suggest this (0+ / 0-)

        is because it's well known that McAuliffe and the Clintons are close.

        Kaine was one of the first people to endorse Obama in 2008 so he probably doesn't have a great relationship with Hillary.

    •  I doubt Veep (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, jncca, James Allen

      Even if he were to become a hugely successful Governor he just seems too boring and uncharismatic to be picked as Veep. Warner would probably be in front of him on any list.

      He's also a bit old, being nearly 60 on election day 2016. I imagine Clinton would probably want someone in their early fifties tops.

    •  Oh gawd no (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, James Allen, jj32, JBraden

      If McAuliffe wins it'll have more to do with McDonnel's unpopularity and Cuccinelli flatout being a terrible candidate than any personal love for McAuliffe.

      Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

      by ChadmanFL on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:33:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  good for something else (0+ / 0-)

      but he'll have been governor for less than three years on election day.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:43:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  definitely not vp (4+ / 0-)

      he would probably get a cabinet post when his term as governor ended.

  •  VA-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    There is an obvious explanation for the discrepancy. The polls naming the Libertarian Robert Sarvis find Terry McAuliffe further from 50% than those that don't. The spread being consistent either way is important.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 01:43:51 PM PDT

    •  so the libertarian is taking away more (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      from the Dem candidate? Interesting.

    •  Somehow my eyes (0+ / 0-)

      Totally skipped over Sarvis. Will update/correct.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 03:05:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sarvis inclusion makes the poll bunk (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, HoosierD42, GradyDem, itskevin

      Sarvis will be lucky to get 1% in the election, that he's at 9% in PPP is a pure protest vote and isn't reality at all.

      The only valid data point in this poll is that TMac leads by some margin, probably a modest one, as all recent polling shows.

      But the toplines otherwise are throwaways with Sarvis included.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:15:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sarvis will probably get more than that... (0+ / 0-)

        Most of the time a third party candidate gets a negligible share of the vote, but when you have an undesirable candidate, especially on the republican side, they usually perform much better.  For example, thrid parties comprised about 1% of the presidential ballot in Ohio in 2012, but about 5% of the Senate contest.  People who normally would have voted Republican couldn't stomach voting for Mandel, but they couldn't bring themselves around to voting for a Democrat. We saw similar results with Akin in Missouri and Murdoch in Indiana.  Since both candidates in the VA race are not particularly desirable, I expect a libertarian in this race to probably get at least 3-4% of the vote, and possibly as much as 6% of the vote when all is said and done.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:52:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't agree (7+ / 0-)

          Third-party candidates never get any significant support in Virginia. Russ Potts ran as an independent in 2005, had a million bucks behind him, and still barely got over 2%. Sarvis has zero money and the support for him in polls is ephemeral. Democrats will go vote for McAuliffe, Republicans will go vote for Cuccinelli, and any independents who are disgusted by both will either hold their nose and choose one or the other or stay home.

          2012 Senate results aren't really comparable because people were coming out to vote for President. Senate is an afterthought for a lot of voters - indeed, there were 140k more votes for President in Ohio than for Senate. Governor is the top office up for election this year, so nothing is going to drive turnout among people who don't like either candidate. Chris Daggett's 6% performance in NJ 2009 is probably the closest analogue to the situation you posit, but again, Daggett raised quite a bit of money and was invited to debates - neither is going to be true of Sarvis.

          •  Potts only polled 2-6% with one outlier above that (0+ / 0-)

            Absent any other data, it would seem reasonable to think Sarvis could do as well or better than 2.22%.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 07:18:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No that's not reasonable (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, wwmiv

              On the ground here no one talks about Sarvis registering with voters.  No one has ever heard of him.  Neither had I until I saw today's PPP release, and I'm active in campaigns and follow stuff closely here.

              Those Sarvis respondents in a couple polls first heard of Sarvis in the telephone survey itself.  They picked him as an impulsive protest.  That doesn't stick in the voting booth.

              When they get serious, those Sarvis respondents will vote for either TMac or Cooch, and some of them (maybe many?) will stay home.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 07:38:52 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Obviously you aren't a good measure of anything (0+ / 0-)

                9% of the respondents mentioned Sarvis.  That doesn't mean they will vote for him, but he registers in the polls higher than a guy who got 2.22%, so it is unreasonable to assume he will do worse than that person did.

                He could do better or worse than 2.22%, but there is no reason to assume there are no lessons to learn from history, and that a simple assertion is more likely to be true.

                Additionally, we aren't talking about two major candidates who are loveable smurfs.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:16:03 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  To the extent I can even follow your comment...... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  NMLib, wwmiv

                  The only relevant "lessons from history" for Virginia are that minor candidates don't do anything.  Your position is just a reprise of last year's irrational exuberance by many here about Goode.

                  Sarvis has zero name recognition and no money and yes, I'm a damn good measure of his name recognition.  There's no whispered awareness of him that is hidden from me, except among the one-half of one percent of Virginia voters who always give serious consideration to Libertarian nominees.

                  That the major party nominees both have a somewhat compromised public image isn't really important, neither is unpopular enough to drive people to a third wheel they've never heard of except, as I said before, impulsively in an inconsequential telephone survey.

                  45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 06:09:15 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Johnny is right (0+ / 0-)

            Virginia voters just don't go for third wheels.  Perot did OK but worse than nationally both times, and as Johnny said Potts got just over 2% with serious money behind him and local electoral success on his resume.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 07:40:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  third party/independent candidates (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, DCCyclone

          almost never make a difference in the South.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:54:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, this doesn't really happen in VA though (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, DCCyclone

          Virgil Goode couldn't even pull any votes last year when he was on the ballot. With the VA GOP lurching further to the right, it feels like Virginia is getting inelastic and people are living (or dying) with red or blue.

  •  WATN: PA-Gov (5+ / 0-)

    Well, this made me smile:

    Former Gov. Rendell, out of transportation options to make it on time to an early morning radio show in Philadelphia this morning, resorted to a long-lost art: standing on the curb, and sticking out his thumb. Apparently, it worked too.

    "Believe it or not, it is true," said Rendell's spokeswoman, Kirstin Snow.

    The way Snow describes it: Rendell was scheduled to be an early morning guest on 94WIP SportsRadio today. His driver was unable to make it on time because the power went out in his home and his alarm went off. The former governor tried calling his son, but couldn't rouse him. So he walked out of his East Falls home, and did what he did when he was in college: he stuck out his thumb. The man who picked him up and gave him a ride later called into WIP as well. (We don't know why the onetime governor didn't just call a cab, even thought that likely wouldn't have been as adventurous).

    The onetime governor apparently still doesn't drive himself, and when he was leaving the governor's office in late 2010, joked that he hadn't been behind the wheel in so long that he wondered if he still could.

  •  Political effects of out-migration from CA (11+ / 0-)

    This article appears to be arguing that people moving out of California are both making the states they move to bluer and making California bluer by doing so.

    •  Well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, WisJohn, Setsuna Mudo

      If the voters are less blue than California but more blue than the states they are moving to, then that would be the case.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 02:49:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, it's mathematically possible. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Gygaxian

        But to actually make other places more blue in absolute terms, the migrants would have to be more than 50% Dem-voting, and really in the mid-to-high 50s at least, I would think, to have an appreciable effect. And to also make CA more blue they'd have to be below the 60% or so that Dems usually get there (lately). So: possible, yes, but a thin needle to thread, and of course the article didn't cite any data to back up the claim.

        An analysis like that would be interesting to see...

        •  It's called the "Will Rogers effect" (9+ / 0-)

          His quote:

          When the Okies left Oklahoma and moved to California, they raised the average intelligence level in both states.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 03:07:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  You also have to take into consideration that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, gabjoh

          California conservatives (or Republican-leaning independents) might still be more liberal than the Republicans in the states they move to, despite being more conservative than California Democrats.

          Kind of like how folks like Jim Matheson in Utah would probably be Republicans anywhere else.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 03:08:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's more than possible, it's easy (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MetroGnome

          Not sure what you are thinking, but taking a Romney Republican out of CA and moving him into a community of white supremacists in Idaho will make Idaho and CA more liberal.

          I pointed out over the weekend that if the breakaway Colorado counties joined Wyoming they would make both CO and WY more Dem.

          This is a very common phenomenon everywhere, even when just talking about upscale inner city residents moving to the suburbs.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:06:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But they're using it to explain why states like CO (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            and NV are now Dem-leaning. Obviously taking a Romney voter out of CA and putting them in another state can't help to make that state Dem-leaning, even if it makes it more "liberal."

            This has come up before here with regards to South Carolina. It seems that white in-migrants to the state (retirees and such) are less conservative than the home-grown variety, but they're still like 40-60 Republican, or something like that. Adding that cohort to the general population makes whites less republican-leaning in percentage terms, but it makes the absolute difference between the parties greater, and doesn't help Dems to become more competitive overall.

            •  You say it, but then don't see it (0+ / 0-)

              Taking a typical CA Romney voter obviously does make WY, UT and ID more Democratic.

              To be more obvious, simply taking a midpoint CA voter out of the state and putting that person in WY moves the midpoint of that state to the left.  That is the point and it is a mathematical certainty.

              You seem to be thinking all these exports are in the right 10% of the population, and they vote Republican 99.999999% of the time.  In reality, Dems, Reps and decline to states are moving to the other states... and those decline to states are likely to be far to the left of the midpoint of those states, and the Republicans are also likely to be significantly to the left of the GOP voters in those states (especially on issues rather than parties).

              CA shedding 44-49% left voters to Matheson's district would take their place at about the 90% left voters for that districts.

              Teleport Trinity County into Oklahoma and it'll be the bluest county in the state, while CA would become bluer.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 10:32:52 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Definitely (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, tommypaine

        I remember reading something to the effect a while ago that from 2002-2012, a lot of urban districts got bluer as the decade progressed, because of white voters leaving.  But this also made the surrounding suburban districts bluer, as the new voters were relatively more Democratic than the existing voters in the suburbs.  Then of course, redistricting screwed that up as the urban seats grew in physical size to make back their population, both reddening them slightly AND reddening the surrounding seats.

        However, there is no redistricting between states.  If California dispersed all of its white voters among the mountain west, it would simultaneously make California an 80% Dem stronghold, as well as turning the rest of the mountain west competitive or perhaps even Dem-leaning.

        So much for Bush-era GOP triumphalism over the loss of electoral votes in blue states, and gain in red states.  Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada are just the beginning.  North Carolina is undeniably a swing state now, and Arizona will (eventually) start to swing our way.

        •  CA whites (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          Romney probably won the CA white vote about 51-47. The exit poll says 53-45, but it also has the overall vote 59-39 when it was actually 60-37. Anyway, if you split them up among the mountain states, the effect would be to make CO, NV, and NM slightly less blue and AZ, MT, UT, WY, and ID slightly less red. Even the effect on the 3 light blue states would probably vanish after about 5 years because Obama's voters are younger than Romney's voters.

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 04:44:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But presumably (0+ / 0-)

            whites aren't the only people moving out of the state.

            •  the ones coming to Oregon are mostly white (0+ / 0-)

              the thing I linked below showed most of them are in Central and Southern Oregon, regions that are generally very white and while they're getting less so, they're still overwhelmingly white.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:25:37 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I linked that above (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy

      the article confusingly at first seems to be saying that the people who are leaving are Democrats, later says they are Republicans.

      For Oregon I found this more interesting and comprehensive: link

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 04:32:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  As I pointed out above, people leave California (0+ / 0-)

      but some people move in. About 59,000 people left California for Texas but about 37,000 left Texas for California, so (a) the effect might not be as pronounced as NPR's article implied and (b) it's not clear what the effect might be.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:50:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't think I saw anyone post this (0+ / 0-)

    so I'll throw it out here: q-poll finds Scott Stringer surging into a dead heat in the NYC-Comptroller race. http://politicalwire.com/...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 03:45:17 PM PDT

  •  IL-Gov: Raoul out (3+ / 0-)

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 03:58:34 PM PDT

    •  Calling it now, I think he's going for 2016 Senate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      As long as Madigan is Speaker, he dominates the entire legislature, right? From what little I understand of Illinois politics, the Senate President generally goes along with Madigan. No chance of gaining too much power in the legislature. So if Raoul doesn't want to run for Governor and he can't run for AG, then he's only got one choice left, unless he's going for LG.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 04:04:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nah I don't see him running (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abgin

        Lisa owes it to us to run against Kirk. I believe it's gonna be her running for that Senate seat. As long as her daddy is Speaker, she will never be Governor.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 04:12:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is that a legitimate excuse? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          Do you think it really could be a conflict of interest to be Gov. when her father is Speaker?

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 04:19:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There's a reason she didn't run (0+ / 0-)

            She tried to deny it, but she know it was true. Even Axelrod said the same thing. If it wasn't such an issue, she would had ran without second thought.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 04:24:47 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Actually, no (0+ / 0-)

        Yes that Mike Madigan rules the House Democrats with an iron fist. But Senate President Cullerton isn't his lapdog, Cullerton is much weaker and has also refused to bring Madigan's pension bill up for a vote. Raoul also has a powerful and influential position as chairman of the bipartisan unicameral pension reform panel, which is putting together the first pension bill that might actually pass. So I don't think his career is a dead end if he doesn't run for higher office.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:42:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Too bad (0+ / 0-)

      Officially no good options here.

      I'm really surprised this race didn't attract more ambitious Democrats. On the surface, it looks like a slam dunk -- Gov. Quinn is unpopular even with members of his own party, Illinois is a Democratic state, and the Illinois Republican Party is in disarray. Methinks there's been some behind-the-scenes arm-twisting of potential Democrat entrants.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 04:44:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I seriously doubt that. (0+ / 0-)

        Pat Quinn has been on bad terms with traditionally influential Democratic pols. Just recently he vetoed legislative salaries, and the Mike Madigan and Senate President Cullerton took him to court. I doubt anyone who would have the power to do so is twisting arms for Quinn.

        Raoul already has a powerful and influential position as chair of the pension reform panel. Of the row offices, SoS Jesse White has been in office since the 70s, Lisa Madigan turned down a bid, and Treasurer and Comptroller are controlled by Republicans. There honestly aren't that many big names to challenge him.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:37:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  This reminds me of Kornacki's theory of NJ Dems (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, DCCyclone

        How they could never lose a race, even if they tried. Remember the whole Torrecelli fiasco (well actually I don't remember cause I was 13, and wasn't following politics, and elections), how about Corzine's 2000 Senate race.

        Then of course that streak ran its luck in 2005, when Corzine (the worst thing that happened to NJ Dems) strong armed Richard Codey out of running for a full term. And four years......

        I think the political DNA of the state, plus Durbin being on the ticket, will be enough to save Quinn's hide.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:02:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  VA-Gov(RRR): Getting real sick of your s***, Cooch (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.conservativeintel.com/...
    In what reality is this anything but a self-undermining strategy?

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 03:59:00 PM PDT

    •  sorry, do you have another link? (13+ / 0-)

      whenever I click on that one the only thing that comes up on my screen is WAHH WAHH WAHHHHHHHHHHH

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 04:02:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Should this be added to the list (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, LordMike

        of things sure losers would do or say?

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 04:07:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  seriously (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, LordMike

          http://www.cuccinelli.com/...
          If you don't mind going to Cooch's website for the press release. How is the press going to take anything seriously from this candidate if he is going to be flippant with regards to what he puts on his website.

          •  weird (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            R30A

            I don't think any voters who haven't already made up their minds will pay attention to that silly post per se, but I think you're right that the reporters who cover the campaign will get annoyed. If anything this will lead to less favorable coverage for him.

            His intent may be to convince Republicans to ignore the polls, but the sort of marginal voter who hasn't decided whether or not to vote isn't going to see that post. Maybe he's trying to get really delusional GOP activists that it's worth the trouble to get out the vote.

            In any case I think it's a particularly juvenile variation of "the only poll that matters is on election day".

            SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:00:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Better to ignore poll and say nothing... (6+ / 0-)

            ...than to issue these juvenile responses that just bring more attention to unfavorable news.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:18:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Funny that they didn't "release" this in response (4+ / 0-)

          To the recent Quinnipiac poll.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 04:22:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  PPP gets under the entire GOP's skin (6+ / 0-)

            They really hate PPP and are letting it get to them publicly.  PPP bugs them because their methodology by design cuts corners and shouldn't be as accurate as the more respected live-call public polls or anyone's private polling, and results from that methodology shouldn't generate as much respect as PPP gets.  No question PPP still isn't as good as what most private pollsters do on our side.  But PPP pwned GOP private polling last year and showed its mettle yet again after previous good cycles, and that really gets under the GOP's skin.

            It really shows political immaturity, and is good for us because it means they really don't have a lot of political acumen which necessarily includes being able to keep cool under pressure.

            That Cuccinelli has someone working on these dumb "RRR" releases is really bad.  It's probably a small amount of time spent, and maybe treated as an emotional release, something fun to do.  But it's not something appropriate for public release.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:42:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  How different is PPP's public polling from private (0+ / 0-)

              polling?

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 11:17:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Robopolling and no cell phones... (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                NMLib, bjssp, sacman701, Stephen Wolf

                ...are the major differences.

                But one thing PPP has significantly (not completely) in common with private polling is how they pick their samples, and that also explains why PPP does at least as well as live-call public polls and better than all other robpollers.  PPP draws samples from voter lists, and always screens directly from the lists for people who voted at least once in the three previous general elections.  In contrast, Quinnipiac and Marist and others use random digit dialing (voter lists aren't cheap or worth it for their purposes), and just survey respondents for who actually votes.  So PPP is picking people who have an actual and verified voting history, and then when you combine that with how low response rates are these days for telephone surveys (even live-call polling is down to high single-digits and robopolls are less), pretty much everyone taking a PPP survey is virtually certain to actually vote.  Then their demographic weighting makes up for disparate response rates, and that kind of weighting is risky but so far PPP's weighting method has worked.

                Live-caller public polls have offsetting advantages of cell phones, better response rates, and more reliable answers that live calls produce.  So that makes up for random digit dialing and relying on respondents to be accurate about their own voting history and intentions.

                Other robopollers combine the worst of all worlds.  That's why they're so bad.

                Meanwhile, private polling combines the best of all worlds.  And that's why it's insanely expensive.  But PPP provides a reasonably reliable alternative for low-budget campaigns that still can benefit from a decent poll.  That's the market Jenson et al. brilliantly tapped and now dominate on the Democratic side.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 06:18:56 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Results are results (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew

              And PPP has produced results, they were among the best last year all over the map. If they're still able to produce results with minor flaws in their methodology then they deserve the respect and people will take it because the finished product is still extremely valuable.

              They'll earn even more praise as they continue to improve their methodology with tweaks, like their new pledge to include cell phone-only respondents.

    •  It was pathetic the first time (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, DCCyclone

      This is what, the third or fourth time? If he does it again, it might mean he actually believes his made up polls.

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 05:31:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wendy Davis raises $1.2 million off filibuster (8+ / 0-)

    She's definitely got the fundraising power to pull off a respectable run for Governor.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    •  As someone pointed out on Twitter... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, James Allen

      ...that's enough for a couple weeks of TV ads in the DFW market, reaching 30% of the state's voters.

      In other words, not all that much.

      A respectable run for Governor of Texas requires 8-figure fundraising, which I realize she'd probably get, but really $1.2 million from her filibuster isn't as much as it seems.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 08:43:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  $1.2 million now (0+ / 0-)

        Sure, it's nowhere near enough to fund an entire gubernatorial run in Texas, but at least it shows Davis' capabilities to fund-raise into 6 digits (in just 6 weeks). I imagine that if and when she actually launches a gubernatorial run, or fund-raises more actively from her filibuster fame, she will raise the amount of cash needed for a respectable run. My point was more that she has the potential to raise the required funds, rather than claiming she already has the funds.

      •  Considering she hasn't even publicly decided (0+ / 0-)

        to run for Governor, it is an incredibly impressive haul.  You can't judge her fundraising ability for a race she hasn't even entered yet.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 06:12:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The Los Alamos County clerk... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Christopher Walker

    Was served with a court order today telling her to license same-sex marriages or appear in court to explain her decision not to. But she doesn't sound like she's in any hurry. Story here.

    During an interview earlier today in the Clerk's Office, Stover had not yet seen the documents. She said she will confer with the county attorney with regard to the judges order. Stover explained her position in not issuing same sex marriage licenses.

    "It's not choice - it's law. In the State Statute related to marriage, Article 1 Section 40-1-18 includes a form of application, license and certificate and we can't change them. They have spaces for 'bride' and 'groom' and 'male' and 'female' ... this is part of the law and it hasn't been changed since 1953, now everyone's going in different directions on this. I want to have a good law that will hold up for all people. We need a ruling from the State Supreme Court."

    The county clerks in New Mexico unanimously agreed to appeal the ruling that legalized same-sex marriage in Santa Fe and Bernalillo counties today as well as interveners (meaning they're not necessarily seeking to overturn the lawsuit, just seeking a higher court appeal). The goal is to get the matter before the Supreme Court. It is unclear if Stover or her counterpart in Sandoval County, who is also facing a lawsuit (no court order yet AFAIK), will be compelled to license same-sex marriages in the meantime.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 06:41:54 PM PDT

    •  speaking of Sandoval County (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, Christopher Walker

      today I read a bit more on Victoria Dunlap, the Republican (!) Sandoval Co. Clerk who issued gay marriage licenses back in 2004 (!!!!) and obviously suffered many political consequences. even after the backlash, she continued to stick to her guns and rather than just say "ok, I thought the law said I needed to issue these but since I was told not to I'll stop," she actually appealed to keep issuing licenses! amazing that a Republican in a fairly conservative county back in the golden days of "values voters" would do that. bravo to her.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 01:28:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hah, I picked today of all days (0+ / 0-)

    to miss the live digest. (Oh well, it was a politically active, although non-electoral one, nonetheless.)

    "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

    by gabjoh on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:06:08 PM PDT

  •  West Virginia Poll! (7+ / 0-)

    Rep. Capito is up 45-40 on Secy. Tennant in a hypothetical matchup. However, the poll didn't ask party affiliation or geography, making it kind of sketchy. Story here.

    The West Virginia Poll is a non-partisan study conducted for the Daily Mail by R.L. Repass and Partners. This most recent edition was conducted Aug. 15-22, sampling 400 voting-age West Virginia residents. It has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
    It's hard to draw any conclusions from a poll that doesn't ask party affiliation, but the consensus seems to be that Tennant would at least start out competitive in the Mountain(top Removal) State.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 09:56:11 PM PDT

  •  NYC Mayor Siena College/NY Times (3+ / 0-)

    DeBlasio    32
    Thompson 18
    Quinn          17
    Weiner        11
    Liu                 3

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 03:52:24 AM PDT

    •  This (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo, gabjoh

      This didn't even seem possible months ago, and know I'm genuinely excited about this race.  Sending DeBlasio to Gracie Mansion would make a big statement.  After years of Rudy and Mike, sending an actual Democratic liberal-progressive to the mayor's office in the nation's largest city would really increase Dem morale, nationally, if you ask me.

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