USS Ramage, one of five destroyers now in the eastern Mediterranean that could
launch Tomahawk cruise missiles at Syria.
Unsurprisingly, on the fifth day of our whip count of Congress, the nays and leaning nays on military intervention in Syria have gained ground as the undecideds have dwindled. Many, perhaps most, of those undecideds are probably really more like undeclareds. They know how they'll be voting but they just don't want to say yet.
If all those saying they will oppose intervention or are leaning that way were to hold their ground, getting an affirmative vote for intervention in the House of Representatives would already be off the table. The Washington Post count of both Democrats and Republicans puts the nays and leaning nays at 222. President Obama needs 218 votes to authorize an attack that he says is necessary to stop Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad from using the chemical weapons the administration says it is certain he used on a Damascus suburb Aug. 21 and previously.
John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman at Politico wrote Thursday night that the president could lose big if the vote were held now.
But a lot of those purported stances are soft. After House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and the White House get through cranking the vise, a portion of those "leaning nay" among Democrats could easily be bent into the "lean aye" category—and vote that way.
Cranking on the GOP side will happen too. But Speaker John Boehner is going to have a lot of convincing to do to bring the number of ayes very high. And his powers of persuasion in certain quarters of his party haven't exactly been sterling lately. Some congressional Republicans who were screaming for intervention in Syria several months ago, with maybe a few bombing sorties to Tehran for good measure, are now saying they oppose intervention. The only reason for that obviously being: Obama, black man in the White House, stop him no matter what he wants to do. How does Boehner pierce that? He certainly can't use the do-it-for-the-good-of-the-party/president/country pitch that Reid, Pelosi, Biden and Obama will.
As for rank-and-file voters, the phone calls and emails to congressional offices are massively, devastatingly against intervention. For instance:
Democratic Rep. Alan Lowenthal of California said Thursday that of 653 emails, phone calls and social media comments, he had received only 11 favoring airstrikes.
Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz of Utah tweeted Wednesday that he'd received about 500 emails with one in favor of intervention.
Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter said, "What I'm hearing back home is about 100 percent no."
"Avalanche" just doesn't cover it. Since starting a tally of the count here Monday, others have issued their own counts. All the sites include lists of senators and representatives, how they'll vote and references to any statements they've made about intervention. A click and you can discover where your rep or senator stands if s/he has yet taken one.
Please drop below the fold to see the various counts:
First some totals, followed by a more detailed breakdown by political party.
The Hill's whip count:
Senate
Favor: 23
Oppose: 16
Undecided: 26
House of Representatives
Favor: 31
Oppose: 126
Undecided: 79
CNN's Whip Count
Senate
Favor: 24
Oppose: 19
Undecided: 57
House of Representatives
Favor: 23
Oppose: 93
Undecided: 275
Unknown: 20
Washington Post Whip Count:
Senate
Favor: 23
Oppose: 25
Undecided: 52
House of Representatives (Tallying 434 of 435 members)
Favor: 19
Oppose: 222
Undecided: 187
ThinkProgress Whip Count:
House of Representatives only (Tallying 433 of 435 members)
Favor: 44
Oppose: 216
Undecided or Unknown: 173
FiredogLake Whip Count:
House of Representatives only (Tallying 296 of 435 members)
Favor: 61
Oppose: 235
The breakdown:
The Hill:
Senate
• 14 Democrats are Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 9 Republicans are Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 4 Democrats are No or Leaning No.
• 12 Republicans are No or Leaning No.
• 13 Democrats are Undecided/Not Clear
• 11 Republicans are Undecided/Not Clear
• 2 Independent is Undecided/Not Clear
House of Representatives
• 21 Democrats Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 10 Republicans Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 30 Democrats No or Leaning No.
• 96 Republicans No or Leaning No.
• 60 Democrats are Undecided/Not Clear
• 19 Republicans are Undecided/Not Clear
CNN:
Senate
• 17 Democrats are Yes.
• 7 Republicans are Yes.
• 5 Democrats are No.
• 14 Republicans are No.
• 30 Democrats are Undecided.
• 25 Republicans are Undecided.
• 2 Independents are Undecided.
House of Representatives
• 15 Democrats say Yes.
• 8 Republicans say Yes.
• 23 Democrats say No.
• 92 Republicans say No.
• 153 Democrats are Undecided.
• 122 Republicans are Undecided.
• 9 Democrats' views are Unknown
• 11 Republicans' views are Unknown
Washington Post:
Senate
• 14 Democrats are For military action.
• 8 Republicans are For military action.
• 4 Democrats are Against or Leaning Against military action.
• 18 Republicans are Against or Leaning against military action.
• 1 independent is Leaning Against military action.
• 34 Democrats are Undecided
• 20 Republican are Undecided
• 1 independent is Undecided
House of Representatives
• 17 Democrats are For military action.
• 8 Republicans are For military action.
• 62 Democrats are Against or Leaning Against military action.
• 160 Republicans are Against or Leaning Against military action.
• 158 Democrats are Undecided.
• 66 Republicans are Undecided.
ThinkProgress:
House of Representatives only
• 33 Democrats will or are likely to vote Yes.
• 11 Republicans will or are likely to vote Yes.
• 52 Democrats will or are likely to vote No.
• 164 Republicans will or are likely to vote No.
• 115 Democrats are Undecided or their stance is Unknown
• 58 Republicans are Undecided or their stance is Unknown
Firedoglake:
House of Representatives only
• 45 Democrats are Firm or Leaning Yeas.
• 16 Republicans are Firm or Leaning Yeas.
• 49 Democrats are Firm or Leaning Nays.
• 167 Republicans are Firm or Leaning Nays.