Would bombing Syria help Israel and keep Iran at bay? Depends upon your point of view. David Brooks of the NY Times says smugly that of course Obama’s proposals to discipline Syria have nothing to do with Syria and everything to do with Iran. Politico says AIPAC to go all-out on Syria, http://www.politico.com/.... I think that most Americans don’t want to hurt Israel but distrust AIPAC and hate lobbyists. I'd like to see teach-ins on Syria that include its unwilling partner, Lebanon.
1. Syria and Lebanon are artificial states created by the French after WWI. The Alawite Shias led by the Assad family seized power from the Sunni majority and have governed brutally. They have reason to fear retribution. Syria with far more people has dominated Lebanese politics and government for nearly 40 years.
Sunni imams have urged jihad against the heretic Alawites for centuries. The Shia Alawites are allied with Shia Iran and Shia Hezbollah in Lebanon. Syrian rebels are Sunni, allied with Saudi Arabia and Sunni jihadists like Al Qaeda. Neither are our friend. Both sides commit atrocities and will do so again. If we supply arms to the rebels, they will likely reach the jihadists, and eventually be used against Israel and us. The example was our assistance to the mujahadeen who fought the Soviets in Afghanistan. The jihadists set up a rigid theocracy that eventually attacked us. In this fight, the enemy of our enemy is not our friend. We have no reliable dog in this fight, and a short term victory is unlikely for either side. I see Syria breaking up in ways parallel to Lebanon's sectarian civil war of 1975-89. Lebanon survived, and has been relatively peaceful, albeit disintegrated and less populous (many Lebanese emigrated): It’s a collection of sectarian and ethnic enclaves theoretically united by a very weak and increasingly dysfunctional Beirut-based government.
Lebanon is fractured, dysfunctional and has been unable to form a new government since the Mikati unity government resigned in March. This is the worst crisis since the 1989 Taif Agreement ended the civil war. Many Lebanese fear a new and uncontrolled civil war. The Italians have ships off the coast ready to remove Italian peacekeepers in Southern Lebanon if things get bad. Google UNIFIL; that will be like pulling out the control rods in a nuclear reactor. No, your Congressperson doesn't know that. US military action will surely increase the number of refugees. Hezbollah is the largest political group in Lebanon, unable to govern and unwilling to let others govern. If we get a failed state, I think that the boundaries of several countries will have to change. LOL with that. I find the Lebanon Daily Star a better source of information than our US papers, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/....
Some claim that the least-worst case scenario for Syria in the medium-term is a Lebanon-style future: a badly fragmented entity, ruled locally by various sectarian and ethnic war lords, retaining a very weak central government in Damascus with limited influence, similar to what many foresee in Afghanistan.
2. We all know that the expensive US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan has produced massive instability in both countries and strengthened Iranian influence. What about Libya, a less modern country than Syria that we recently “helped liberate”? Libyan oil exports are down to 12% of capacity because armed groups now block shipments from most Libyan ports. The Egyptian pot is close to boiling over as the Saudi backed government continues its plans to try and perhaps execute former President Morsi and outlaw the Muslim brotherhood.
3. But, aren't things different this time?
Yes, they are different in many ways. One is that Iraq is no longer a threat to Iran, as it was during the Lebanese civil war. Israel had problems during that war and would have much greater problems if a combined Syrian-Lebanese failed state develops. I think that AIPAC wants to help Israel like Chalabi helped Bush and Netanyahu is, like Ahab, too obsessed with the Iranian whale to understand problems closer to home.
4. My Congressman Adam Schiff voted to invade Iraq; again he’s lusting for military solutions in the Middle East. I voted for him in 2012, but never again. Whether or not we attack Syria, I will do what I can to end his time in Congress. I might vote for a tea party Republican who opposes military adventures in the Middle East, if we can’t beat him in the primaries, depending upon who he/she is. What will the Syrian crisis do to Hillary Clinton’s presidential aspirations?