USS Barry fires a Tomahawk missile during
Libyan intervention in 2011.
What with Russia, the U.S. and Syria possibly considering putting Syria's chemical weapons under international control—however much that is walked back by Secretary of State John Kerry and how complicated actually making it happen might be—the situation regarding U.S. military intervention against Bashir al-Assad has become a good deal more fluid. That hasn't changed the direction of the whip counts of how the Senate and House are likely to vote on the authorization to use military force. The "nays" keep adding up with far fewer fresh "yeas" being tallied.
It was pointed out in our whip-count compilation Friday that many, if not most, of the members of Congress reported as "leaning nay" on military intervention in Syria were "soft" nays that might be bent in the other direction by pressure from the White House and the leadership of the Senate and House.
Brian Beutler at Salon went a bit further than that. He argued that lumping the "nays" and "leaning nays" together is highly misleading:
1) Lumping those numbers together is a clever way to create the illusion that the authorization is doomed before it’s been finalized—but it’s also BS.
2) Even if you ignore the inflationary effect of lumping like this, unofficial whip counts are a very poor way to determine what Congress will do, wants to do, can do or will attempt.
If outside whip counts had much merit, every Obamacare exchange in the country would feature a public option today. [...]
It’s wise to manage expectations, even — perhaps especially — if you’re invested in the project of defeating this war authorization. Misleading whip counts will send those expectations running wild.
Certainly point No. 1 makes sense. But the outside whip counts and the comments of staff members we talk to on the phone are what we have to measure what may be taking place in the minds of the members of Congress. Nobody seriously working on opposing military intervention will relax just because the numbers look somewhat favorable to blocking it. Just as campaign workers don't slack off because poll numbers for their candidate look good.
Moreover, as time goes on, the opinions in those whip counts are hardening and becoming ever closer to how members are likely to decide. The first vote, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid originally said Monday, woould take place Wednesday, which just happens to be the 12th anniversary of the September 11 attacks on New York and the Pentagon. That would have undoubtedly made for some disturbing and rancid oratory. But now that vote has been delayed.
Whenever that vote does happen, as the cliché has it, we'll get to the only poll that matters.
But, for now, with your salt shaker in hand—perhaps with the lid off—you can read about the latest whip count results below the fold. As you can see, there are huge differences between some of the counts. Where data are available, I have separated the "yeas" and "nays" from the leaners in those categories.
First some totals, followed by a more detailed breakdown by political party. I've added the new whip count from The New York Times, which leads off.
The New York Times whip count:
Senate
Support: 23
Against/Leaning Against: 22
Undecided: 55
Unknown: 0
• 16 Democrats Support
• 7 Republicans Support
• 7 Democrats Against
• 15 Republicans Against
• 29 Democrats Undecided
• 24 Republicans Undecided
• 2 Independents Undecided
House of Representatives (433 tallied)
Support: 38
Against/Leaning Against: 156
Undecided: 212
Unknown: 27
• 9 Republicans Support
• 29 Democrats Support
• 118 Republicans Against
• 38 Democrats Against
• 120 Democrats Undecided
• 92 Republicans Undecided
• 13 Democrats Unknown
• 14 Republicans Unknown
The Hill's whip count. The Hill does not separate the leaners from those who are more firm in their ayes and nays:
Senate
Yes/Leaning Yes: 26
No/Leaning No: 22
Undecided: 52
• 17 Democrats are Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 9 Republicans are Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 6 Democrats are No or Leaning No.
• 16 Republicans are No or Leaning No.
• 29 Democrats are Undecided/Not Clear
• 21 Republicans are Undecided/Not Clear
• 2 Independent is Undecided/Not Clear
House of Representatives
Favor: 32
Oppose: 156
Undecided: 93
• 22 Democrats Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 10 Republicans Yes or Leaning Yes.
• 36 Democrats No or Leaning No.
• 120 Republicans No or Leaning No.
• 72 Democrats are Undecided/Not Clear
• 21 Republicans are Undecided/Not Clear
CNN's Whip Count
Senate
Favor: 25
Oppose: 26
Undecided: 49
• 18 Democrats are Yes.
• 7 Republicans are Yes.
• 8 Democrats are No.
• 18 Republicans are No.
• 26 Democrats are Undecided.
• 21 Republicans are Undecided.
• 2 Independents are Undecided.
House of Representatives
Favor: 23
Oppose: 93
Undecided: 275
Unknown: 20
• 17 Democrats say Yes.
• 8 Republicans say Yes.
• 32 Democrats say No.
• 120 Republicans say No.
• 146 Democrats are Undecided.
• 102 Republicans are Undecided.
Washington Post Whip Count:
Senate
For: 24
Against: 20
Leaning No: 9
Undecided: 47
• 17 Democrats For
• 7 Republicans For
• 6 Democrats Against
• 14 Republicans Against
• 2 Democrats Leaning No
• 6 Republicans Leaning No
• 1 Independent Leaning No
• 27 Democrats are Undecided
• 19 Republican Undecided
• 1 independent Undecided
House of Representatives (433 tallied)
For: 26
Against: 120
Leaning No: 118
Undecided: 169
• 17 Democrats For
• 8 Republicans For
• 29 Democrats Against
• 91 Republicans Against
• 38 Democrats Leaning No
• 80 Republicans Leaning No
• 114 Democrats are Undecided.
• 55 Republicans are Undecided.
ThinkProgress Whip Count:
House of Representatives only (433 tallied)
Yes: 21
Lean Yes: 21
No: 95
Lean No: 143
Undecided or Unknown: 153
• 13 Democrats Yes
• 7 Republicans Yes
• 16 Democrats Likely Yes
• 5 Republicans Likely Yes
• 21 Democrats No
• 37 Democrats Likely No
• 74 Republicans No
• 106 Republicans Likely No
• 112 Democrats Undecided/Unknown
• 41 Republicans Undecided/Unknown
FiredogLake Whip Count:
Senate
Firm Yea: 21
Lean Yea: 7
Firm Nay: 18
Lean Nay: 11
Undecided: 43
• 18 Democrats Yea/Likely Yea
• 10 Republicans Yea/Likely Yea
• 9 Democrats Nay/Likely Nay
• 20 Republicans Nay/Likely Nay
House of Representatives (433 tallied)
Firm Yea: 28
Lean Yea: 32
Firm Nay: 113
Lean Nay: 133
Undecided: 126
• 46 Democrats Yea/Likely Yea
• 14 Republicans Yea/Likely Yea
• 67 Democrats Nay/Likely Nay
• 180 Republicans Nay/Likely Nay