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Screaming Trees -- "Nearly Lost You"

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Comment Preferences

  •  51st state: Imperial (0+ / 0-)

    From a partisan Dem/swing state perspective, would the creation of a of 51st state named "Imperial" be a good idea or bad?

    The state would make up the three counties in southeastern California: Imperial, Riverside and San Bernardino.  Imperial would be approximately the physical size and population of South Carolina.

    Obama would have carried the state by over 5%, but both Brown and Boxer lost it in 2010.  Of course, they were both northern Californians with basically zero connection to the area.  

    Dems should win the state in Presidential elections going forward, but to win the Gov and Senate races the party would have to nominate more moderate-ish but probably more Latino-ish candidates. Think Raul Ruiz.

    And how would the seven congressional districts be formed by a civilian commission?  How would the partisan nature of districts in this area be affected by not having any overlap with LA, Orange or San Diego population?

    (I'm looking to carve CA into a bunch of states to lead to a more reasonable amount of Senators and electoral votes.  Instead of starting up north, I thought it would be interesting to think about this more unique, swingish area.)

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 03:51:45 PM PDT

    •  it would definitely help Dems (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, bjssp, jncca

      Collectively those counties are well to the right of the state average, but they're trending hard to the left simply because more Hispanics are voting. Since 2004 Riverside has gone from R+7 to R+1, San Berdoo from R+5 to D+2, Imperial (which is tiny) from D+4 to D+14. The GOP could probably compete there in nonpresidential years for now, but within 10 years I think it would be totally hopeless for them.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 04:03:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't Boxer live in Palm Springs? (0+ / 0-)
    •  Sounds like the topic for a good diary :) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42, gabjoh

      Too bad DRA lags like a stick being dragged through molasses when I try to do anything with California.

    •  In presidential elections (0+ / 0-)

      It will force the Republican party to blow lots of money on a "swing state" that is just too Democratic for them to win

    •  Orange County would (0+ / 0-)

      flip its wig, if it had to remain in "old California" with L.A and the Bay Area, while other counties were allowed to leave. It'd be funny to hear their reaction.

      •  I'm thinking of these criteria for new states: (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, GloFish

        - at least twice the square miles of Rhode Island, 2500 square miles
        and
        - at least twice the population of Wyoming or about 1.2million people

        This would mean states would have to have a decent minimum size and also the population for at least two House seats for the foreseeable future.

        This would mean Orange County could not qualify as it's own state, and would have to go with either San Diego or LA county, or both.  I'd put all three together to make a state of similar physical size to the new Imperial state... and it would be very heavily Democratic, so all the Orange county and San Diego conservatives would be forced to live in a state with leftwing Governors and Senators.  Both Brown and Boxer would have won this new LA-OC-SD state of "South California" easily.

        This then would allow for new states of "Santa Ventura" (Santa Barbara and Ventura counties) and "Central Coast" (San Luis Obispo, Monterey, Santa Cruz and Kern counties).

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 08:42:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And then there could be (0+ / 0-)

          Central Valley: from Tulare/Kings/Inyo in the south to Placer County in the north, including Sacramento, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Fresno, etc.  This state would have been carried by Obama by about 50k votes, but would be the GOP's best hope.

          Santa Clara: Santa Clara county it's own state, with three House members.  Super safe Dem.

          Milk: San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin. Mega super safe Dem.

          East Bay: Alameda and Contra Costa.  Uber safe Dem.

          North California: the north coast, the red northeast, Butte, Nevada, Solano, Yolo, Napa... Safe Dem.

          Nine states total, 18 more electoral votes, probably 16 more Dem Senators, filibuster safe majority, multiple west coast Senators under the age of a zillion, lots of benefits.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 09:11:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Fantasy secession... (9+ / 0-)

      ...is the new fantasy redistricting.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 11:10:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IU So Far (13+ / 0-)

    I meant to mention this at the time, but on Monday, we were finishing our discussion of the Electoral College in my American Political Controversies course. The professor asked the class of 125 or so students which seven states had at-large congressional districts, and I was the only one (from my observation) that knew all seven on the first guess. After I offered all seven, the professor joked that I should probably teach the class lol. I guess DKE has helped me nail down the little stuff like that. :P

    I've really enjoyed that class along with Introduction to Comparative Politics. A lot of it has been review so far (DKE has put me ahead of the curve on a lot of stuff from what I've seen so far lol), but I've really enjoyed them nonetheless. I'm also taking other really interesting courses, particularly History of Race in the Americas as well as Power, Politics, and Piety, which discusses the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in-depth. I'm also working on second-year Spanish, so it's been a solid semester so far with these classes. They're far more interesting than most high school classes, to say the least. :P

    I'm also getting involved with IU Democrats. They actually have an open executive position I'm going to apply for this evening - Political Affairs Director of all things. Regardless of how that goes, I look forward to working with the organization the next few years. This Sunday evening, some of us will also be meeting up with some workers with Freedom Indiana to do phone banking ahead of the state legislature's caucus to determine votes on the gay marriage amendment. Hopefully we'll be able to nip this in the bud before it heads to voters by killing it in the legislature, hopefully by getting Brian Bosma to wait a few years because of his fear over the civil union ban. We'll see how it goes.

    Overall, my IU experience is off to a great start, and I'm looking forward to the years ahead. :)

    •  Great stuff!! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

      I was actually on the Executive Board of the College Democrats during the 2008 election; very fun time (I was Communications Director).

      We were officially neutral during the primary, because IU Dems' Constitution forbids endorsements, and even if it didn't, I don't think we could have, because the Board was split 4-4.

      I love IU so much. I wasn't able to finish because of money troubles, but I'm headed back there as soon as I can.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 06:45:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Comparative politics (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY, geoneb

      Is great for feeling depressed about how fucked up our electoral system in this county is. There's like a million ways we could be doing it better, but we don't.

    •  I got my (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Audrid

      BA in Political Science/History and my JD in IU-Bloomington. It is a great place to live. I believe that Gerald Wright, Ed Carmines and Margie Hershey are still there. They are excellent members of the faculty and I would recommend any of their courses. Also, there were two History courses on the history of both political parties taught by the late Professor Irving Katz. I do not know if any other faculty are teaching them anymore.

      Maybe I am showing my age but when I was there the city was Democratic, but Republicans still had a hold on county offices there. Then the 2004 election came and things have been in great shape for Dems since then in Monroe County.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 01:08:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm interested in the German Federal election (10+ / 0-)

    on Sunday, which at the moment doesn't seem to be going well for the center-left and subsequently for the Eurozone countries not named Germany (mostly). The incumbent center-right led by chancellor Merkel and her junior coalition partner, the (European) liberal Free Democrats, look like they'll just barely be able to hold onto power. The reason this is so, despite their large polling lead, is that the FDP is barely polling above the 5% threshold, but the polling average has them in the 5-6% range rather than 4-5% (I am by no means an expert on the quality of German polling. Further hurting the cause of the opposition is that the SPD (Social Democrats) and the Greens (both center/center-left) refuse to entertain the possibility of The Left party, made up of former communists and otherwise clearly left of center, being in their coalition even though they would clearly outnumber the current government in seats if the FDP falls below threshold.

    The best scenario for anti-austerity in the Eurozone would have been a red green coalition but since Merkel's party is far too popular for that to be a possibility, it would seem to be the only remaining chance is if the FDP falls below 5% and Merkel's party, the Christian Democratic Union is forced into a grand coalition with the SPD. However it doesn't seem abundantly clear what will happen to the Eurozone austerity regime in that event.

    In case you didn't know, Spain and Greece are not in recession. No, they are in a Depression right now with unemployment upwards of 25% and closer to 30% in the latter. It is disgusting how pointless all this pain and suffering is, and the current German government doesn't seem bothered by it at all and instead seems happy to inflict more if it means the German banks don't suffer and Germany doesn't suffer above normal inflation.

    (Aside: I know David loooves the Eurozone debate, but here's for once that it's actually election related :P)

    •  If you think your rent is too damn high (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      try this:

      http://sfist.com/...

      Although it may not be the absolute smallest in the city, the tiniest apartment currently available for you to move into is a diminutive 264 square feet of mostly kitchen and bathroom. If you're the sort of person who needs nothing more than a place to put your bed and take a shower then this $1,200 per month rental is the home for you.
      Skyrocketing rent is becoming a political issue in San Francisco. It was telling that even the moderators at TechCrunch Disrupt SF had to press mayor Ed Lee just to get a nonresponse.

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 05:45:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oops (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Wanted to start a new thread, not to be a reply.

        23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

        by kurykh on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 05:46:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          just read that post too! Holy fuck if an apartment like that goes for that much on 6th street (where most of the SRO's in San Francisco are) then we have a problem City Hall!

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 06:20:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  $1200 a month... (5+ / 0-)

        Insane.

        I think they had that room showcased at IKEA, but I think they allotted 400 square feet for their furnished micro-apartment.

        Truly insane.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 06:40:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Our apartment is about 400 square feet (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY, CF of Aus

          At least that's what it came out to when I measured all the rooms. It actually works just fine for two guys and a cat; sure, quarters are tight, but the only real problem is the lack of storage space. It really helps that the kitchen is open with a bar/counter space.

          Ikea was a godsend, because none of our furniture from our Virginia apartment would have fit (we literally kept our bed and a few bookshelves and that was it). I like the little living spaces that they set up in the store, but they're so impractical; there's no way they'd ever actually work in real life.

      •  Is that typical? (0+ / 0-)

        New York doesn't seem to be quite that bad - at $1,200, most of the apartments are in the ghetto, but there are some in nicer, out-of-the-way neighborhoods like Bensonhurst and Inwood.

        •  That area is rapidly gentrifying (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          after Twitter moved into the area, but it's still quite rundown at this point.

          Here is a map of rents throughout the city for 1-br apartments. The highest is SoMa at $3,475 on average (this is where many of the startups are). The cheapest are in the peripheral neighborhoods at around $1,350. Remember that this is just rent; there's food, entertainment, and daily necessities on top of that. I have yet to meet the proverbial $4 toast, but I have seen and eaten $13 sandwiches (not worth it).

          23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

          by kurykh on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 07:19:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  damn (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, ehstronghold

          we're paying $775 here in SW Portland for like 650 square feet. Living here is much cheaper. Plus no sales tax and a higher minimum wage. Haha!

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 07:48:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  When (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I graduate from SF State in (hopefully) two years I really should think about finding a decent paying job in either Portland or Seattle so I could move up there.

            At this point there is no way in hell I can still live in the Bay Area unless I move to the fringes of the Bay Area where at that point I'm basically living in the Central Valley, Sacramento or Santa Cruz.

            The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

            by ehstronghold on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 08:58:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You need to look more carefully (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, kurykh

              Sunset and Richmond areas of San Francisco are considerably less expensive to live in SF, most notably in the Outer areas (although Inner Sunset is more expensive than Outer Sunset).  Also, looking at the areas nearby the SF/Daly City border (particularly Ocean Ave) are not that bad either.

              However, the question remains:  What industry are you in or looking to work in?  Salary?  And where do you want to live in?

              There are plenty of parts of the Bay Area to live in and at lower costs.  Daly City, South San Francisco, San Bruno, Walnut Creek, Concord, Pleasant Hill, San Leandro, Castro Valley, even parts of Oakland (by Rockridge even), El Cerrito and Albany are less expensive than other areas.

              I've lived in the Bay Area my whole life and I'm amazed at how so many people say everywhere in the Bay Area is expensive.  A number of SF areas are expensive but not everywhere.  I've got friends who have lived in an apartment in San Francisco at by 23rd and Lincoln in the Sunset area and their rent hasn't gone up higher than say $600/month (per person).

              •  Especially in the Sunset, Richmond, and the SE (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                corner such as the Portola and Visitacion Valley, you can find lower rents...if you know where and how to look. Occasionally you might see a poster on a light pole entirely in Chinese. These are often listings for in-law basements or some other form of rental housing, and they can be quite cheap. Now, these posters aren't in English for a reason: they want Chinese-speaking (or at least Asian) tenants. But if you can somehow grab onto a Chinese-speaking friend and hopefully persuade the owners to let you in...

                23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

                by kurykh on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 10:55:20 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  what about white people (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  who have a rudimentary grasp of Chinese? (have to imagine that blatantly not renting to someone based on race would be illegal...)

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 11:01:09 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Chinese landlords aren't that bad (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, ehstronghold

                    It depends on who you talk to but Chinese landlords tend to not be as likely to raise the rent as 1) There is of course rent control in SF and 2) They just want to see people who are responsible, pay rent on time and deposit and don't cause a disturbance to the neighborhood or house they manage.  My friends who live in SF at the Sunset Area which I mentioned, they're tenants of Chinese landlords and they've been paying rent for a long time at a low price because they've been good tenants.

                    A number of landlords in SF can be very good ones so long as you vet them properly and are a reasonable tenant.  Just stay away from the modern expensive apartments and the Victorian houses in the most desirable areas in SF and you shouldn't stress that much.

                  •  I think they would be piqued by a non-Chinese (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    who had some grasp of the language. Then again, if they were really that racist they could just say they picked another tenant. An all-Chinese sign was just an easy way to filter out the gweilos.

                    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

                    by kurykh on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 11:18:11 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Yes, Portola and Visitacion Valley as well (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  But sometimes those areas can get inflicted with violent crime and such, depending on what happens so it's important to be mindful if you are moving there that to watch out for yourself.  Living there isn't like living in Bayview or say West Oakland but if you want areas that are safer, Richmond and Sunset are better for that.

                  Hell, Diamond Heights and Twin Peaks are surprisingly not as expensive as SoMa or Russian Hill if you're in a shared rooming situation.

                  Outer Mission is also inexpensive.  Bernal Heights is also not cheap but not VERY expensive to live in.

                  •  Hey, I have a friend who lives in West Oakland (0+ / 0-)

                    I usually stay with him when I visit the Bay Area. The last time I was there was the summer before this past one. The neighborhood feels about as dangerous as the East Village here in New York was about 20 years ago - kind of edgy. But I used to hang out in the East Village then. Whether you get mugged anywhere is somewhat a matter of luck, but good street sense can help, and I've walked from the BART stop there a lot, including after midnight, and between there and Chinatown and other parts of Downtown a bunch of times, and I have yet to have any problems, knock on wood. There are a lot of beautiful 19th-century houses in that neighborhood.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 11:31:07 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  And Glen Park too (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  I laugh when people say Glen Park is so expensive.  It's really not that expensive although certain techies do live there and there are some expensive areas to rent (not many though).  You can have a much easier time finding a shared rooming situation in the neighborhood here at say Joust Ave, Congo or Monterey Ave for a lower price than if you were to room at say Lower Pacific Heights even.

        •  Manhattan is worse (0+ / 0-)

          Try to find any apartment for much less than $2,000/month for a 1-bedroom. But that's if you're searching now, not if you've already been living in a rent stabilized apartment for the last x-number of years. I don't think you'll have an easy time at all in finding a place for $1,200/month in Inwood, Harlem, or any other neighborhood in Manhattan, unless you'd like to split costs with a roommate or perhaps do a sublet.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 08:05:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Geez (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, fearlessfred14

        You can get an apartment bigger than that in Madison for half that price, and they're considered expensive.

      •  Ed Lee's a very good Mayor BUT (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He's paying too much lip service to the tech community and there needs to be more moderation so that San Francisco isn't depending on the tech industry so much.

        The great thing about all this is that the City of San Francisco is getting revenue and it's building thanks to the massive business activity.

        However, others who have been living in San Francisco for the longest time are being pushed out because the rents have increased over the years.  I order for SF to keep its diversity, it does of course have to be more mindful of those in different income scales.

        That being said, the best solution to save costs in living in SF is by shared rooming situations.  I know that's not what most people want to do here but it's considerably more expensive than a single-bedroom situation.

      •  I think (0+ / 0-)

        people like Yglesias oversell the benefits of building up, but in certain areas, he probably has a pretty good point. Unless there's some sort of geological reason (fault lines?) that they won't build up, you'd think any sort of legal restrictions, which are usually the main inhibitor, would start to crumble as pressure like this mounts.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 08:20:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yglesias is spot on (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          If the rent is too damn high, build more damn units and where space is at a premium (as it probably is if the rent is too damn high), build vertically.

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 10:14:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's not that I think he's wrong in theory. (0+ / 0-)

            It's just that he seems to think laws are the basically the only reason this isn't done more often. I'd be surprise if that were true, simply because I doubt he's considered geological/geographic conditions on the coasts.

            I've been meaning to check out his ebook on the subject. Maybe he's been more thorough than I realize.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 11:47:22 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      remember reading an article in The Economists where the opposition spent a couple of weeks demanding Merkel stop the US from spying on German citizens or something along those lines.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 06:23:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's amazing that they've bled Greece so much (6+ / 0-)

      that some Greeks are supporting a Nazi party that's taken over the police forces to a large degree, yet Germany, of all countries, doesn't seem to think twice about continuing.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 08:02:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  On the subject of Germany, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Paul Krugman has been making the case that France is in a much better position to deal with the demographic shifts in coming decades than Germany, which will help its economy despite the German economy being stronger now.

      And yes, all of the pain and suffering in those countries is pointless.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 08:17:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Any Good Internet Sites? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      to watch election returns tomorrow? Preferably in English or with in German with English subtitles?

      Thanks

    •  So who gets all their ballots counted first (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY, BeloitDem, gabjoh

      Germany or New York City?  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

      by Jeff Singer on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 05:24:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  another R vote for gay marriage in NJ (8+ / 0-)

    Assemblyman Declan O'Scanlon has announced he would theoretically vote to override Chris Christie's veto of gay marriage. Unfortunately O'Scanlon was widely considered to be leaning in support of equality for a long time so this announcement isn't as earth-shattering as it would need to be in order to actually make a veto override seem possible.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 05:44:55 PM PDT

  •  Off-year... (5+ / 0-)

    ...so hard for me to comment. The most exciting one in my area (NYC mayor's race) is going to be anti-climactic - de Blasio is leading Lhota by 40+ points and beating him in every demographic group and borough. Unless he screws up royally, he'll be mayor for the rest of the time I'll be a direct resident of NYC (I think).

    Hoping that VA Democrats break the gubernatorial trend that's been going on there a while. Terry Mac really is not someone I like rooting for, but he's a very affable guy (he hung out with our College Dems group in Philly in 2004 at Pat's), and, in the end, I don't think he can fuck up too badly. Have to think we'll win LG no matter what, and would be nice to complete the clean sweep so we can rebuild the bench.

    In the Senate races, interested to see how KY-Sen develops. Grimes has had pretty good polling - tied or up so far - and if she keeps running a disciplined campaign while McConnell has to go the full teabagger, I think she's got a decent shot at winning.

    "The perfect is the enemy of the good." -Voltaire

    by PsiFighter37 on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 05:46:06 PM PDT

    •  McConnell can't be a Tea Partier (0+ / 0-)

      He is the Establishment. But I understand what you mean.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 08:07:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hey, there's the NYC Public Advocate runoff (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Tish James seems to be the more progressive option, but I don't really know much about Daniel Squadron. (Other than the fact that when I was doing paid leafleting in James's old district for a council race, a Spanish-speaking older lady came up to me with one of Squadron's lit pieces and said she'd be voting for him, because of his good looks (maybe?) and the fact that someone named "Christina" endorsed him (also maybe?). So maybe he has some support there?)

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 08:27:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And I doubt it was Cristina Saralegui (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Audrid, MichaelNY

        After some semi-exhaustive googling and scouring of Squadron's website, no sign of that.

        "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 08:30:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Squadron is fine (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42, BeloitDem

        I think either of them would be a good liberal, but I'm not sure whether they'll actually be able to use a bully pulpit much with De Blasio as the very likely Mayor. I mean, what will they argue with him about?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 09:30:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  SF-Elections: Yes, we have them. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold, MichaelNY

    So San Francisco has elections every single November, and this year there aren't that many contentious items. There are three uncontested races for assessor-recorder, city attorney, and treasurer. Incumbents Carmen Chu, Dennis Herrera, and Jose Cisneros are winning these hands down.

    There's a special election for a seat on the Board of Supervisors in District 4, which is the Sunset District in the western edge of the city. This district is 58% Asian and has the lowest Democratic registration in the city at 49% (shocking!). The appointed incumbent, Katy Tang, is running against token opposition and should win.

    There are four propositions on the ballot. Prop A deals with retiree health care trust fund changes that virtually everyone supports. Prop D deals with negotiating drug prices that virtually no one opposes.

    Props B and C are the most contentious and most confusing things on this year's ballot. They deal with a certain development on the eastern waterfront across from the Ferry Building at 8 Washington St. Right now it's a parking lot, but the developer is trying to build something that exceeds the current height limit. Prop B is an initiative filed by the developer codifying their plan into law, while Prop C is a referendum on the Board of Supervisors's raising of the height limit for this project. If either passes, the project goes through; in other words, opponents of the project have to defeat both props in order to win.

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 06:04:35 PM PDT

    •  You (0+ / 0-)

      know I never could get why the 8 Washington Street development is so controversial. It's not like we're recreating the Central Freeway which is what the opponents of 8 Washington like to argue.

      But then again I support the Warriors building a new stadium along the waterfront and I believe building hundreds of new skyscraper apartments is one way to make housing more affordable in the city for everyone not just the tech crowd that rides a chartered bus down to work in Silicon Valley.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 06:29:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Two things (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, gabjoh, ehstronghold

        The more political one is that in San Francisco, almost all developer projects run into and get bogged down by NIMBYism. Raising the 84-foot height restriction (applies to all waterfront plots in the Financial District) to 136 feet just for this one project obviously fueled the fire.

        The second broader point is that these are mostly multimillion-dollar condos with some mixed-use; pouring $11 million into an affordable housing fund means little when those housing units aren't getting built nearly fast enough. It feeds into the narrative that I linked to above about the $1200 cubicle in SoMa; who on earth can survive in this city nowadays. This is why I'm ambivalent about this project. I'm all for the Warriors building a stadium here (hypocrisy alert?) but 8 Washington is starting to exemplify a massive problem in San Francisco.

        23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

        by kurykh on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 07:33:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  the only race I'm interested in now is NJ-Gov (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bythesea, gabjoh

    It's infuriating that Christie is doing so well in the polls and the national Democrats are afraid to take him on.  The polls say Christie is winning by about 20 points.  If the election were held today Buono would lose by around 10-12, not 20.  But the thought that we can't close that gap is really upsetting.  Buono only needs to win 50 out of 58 Obama voters.

    Here are some ideas:
    1. Turn the Chris Cerf story into a series of campaign commercials.  Convince suburban NJ voters that when Christie is done reforming Newark and Camden public schools he will come for their schools next.  "His campaign donors made lots of money from Newark and Camden but he won't stop there.  He already promised them your schools."  
    2. Campaign against urban Democratic party bosses. Just like Christie did 4 years earlier, before becoming their friends.  Tell suburban voters that the only way to finally get rid of the party bosses is to elect a Democratic governor without their help, who doesn't owe them anything.
    3. Juxtapose any clip of pre-Sandy loudmouth Christie's Obama-bashing (his RNC speech is a good one) with an irate Buono saying "speak for yourself, governor!" and make that a commercial attacking Christie for his temperament, his teabagging, and his national ambitions saying he's not fit to be governor.

  •  As usual, concerned about Utah politics (0+ / 0-)

    especially in 2014. Here's hoping that the John Swallow AG scandal brings a whole lot of GOP legislator careers crashing down.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 08:26:13 PM PDT

    •  Anything on the 4th? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      or is it quiet for now?

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 08:47:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You mean the 4th investigation? (0+ / 0-)

        If you're talking about that, the Feds (federal investigators) declined to prosecute into one specific allegation, but they're still investigating and the 4 other non-Fed investigations are still chugging along.

        If you're talking about something else, I feel dumb because I probably know what it is, but what is it?

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 09:23:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  UT-04, my bad. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          But is the John Swallow thing still a big deal over there?

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 09:27:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Very much so (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            Swallow claims he was "cleared by the Feds" (he wasn't), and a few people have lost interest, but it's still chugging slowly along. People want Swallow to resign or be impeached, and his presence is still angering people. It's gotten boring though, no new revelations or accusations. The blog Utah Political Capitol has been very good at keeping track of Swallow and his predecessor Shurtleff's mischief, though. The Legislature seems to be wanting to sweep this under the rug.

            As for UT-04, it hasn't really heated up yet; it'll probably do so after the state party conventions next year. Love is definitely more prepared for this, but so is Matheson. It seems like Matheson will triumph by a few more points than he did in 2012, mostly because that's what happened the last time he got redistricted, but there haven't been any new polls yet. Honestly, I can't bring myself to care about this election. UT-02 is more on my radar at this point, and I'm mostly concerned with the legislative elections, since I'm convinced we could win 3-4 seats in the state house if we fight hard enough.

            I'm very excited by the initiative to register 40,000 new Democratic voters though; if it works, that'll make Utah Dem's campaigns at lot easier. And if we can register more than 40,000, that'll open a lot of opportunities up.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 09:48:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  NY-18, 19 crossed my mind just now. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, MichaelNY, Gygaxian

    Does Maloney have or in the process of getting a GOP opponent at this point?  Haven't heard too much there.  Heard more from 19, where Sean Eldridge is running against Gibson.

    The upstate GOPers in NY tried to use the Pace Picante strategy to prevent Dems from getting presidential year coattails, but it didn't work.  Democrat Cecilia Tkaczyk eked a win over Assemblyman George Amedore in a district Republicans drew for a Republican despite Amedore airing this:
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Nan Hayworth (Maloney's GOP predecessor) aired this:
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 09:01:09 PM PDT

  •  AK-Sen: Treadwell digs into Dan Sullian: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 09:16:42 PM PDT

    •  Is Alaska a state where "carpetbagger" (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, gabjoh, DCCyclone

      arguments are likely to work? Except for Alaska Natives, haven't most Alaskans moved there from somewhere else?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 09:34:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hilariously enough... (12+ / 0-)

        Alaska was fairly Democratic before a bunch of Southerners and Midwesterners carpetbagged there during the oil boom of the 1970s and 1980s.

        But yes, "not from around these parts!" attacks do work in Alaska, although I don't know that people will buy it in Sullivan's case; he's been an Alaskan for quite a few winters now, and he only left the state to serve in President Bush's Cabinet.

        Also, pretty good dig from Lt. Gov. Treadwell, but a spectacular smackdown from Sullivan:

        “I’ll put my 40 years of working in Alaska … against anyone,” Treadwell said. “I’ve got a jar of mayonnaise in my refrigerator that’s been there longer than Dan Sullivan’s been in Alaska.”

        Sullivan responded in an email late Thursday night: “While serving as Alaska’s Attorney General and current Commissioner of the Department of Natural Resources, I have maintained a strict policy of declining media requests regarding politics and non-state of Alaska matters, but I will say this: after moving to Alaska over 16 years ago, I learned something new today — not to eat any of Mead Treadwell’s sandwiches.”

        And man, pretty untoward of Treadwell to go hard negative when Sullivan is 1) still serving in his own administration, and 2) not even officially a candidate yet. That kind of nastiness may not play too well in the Anchorage "suburbs", where this race will be won or lost.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 10:36:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Montana Senate (4+ / 9-)

    Who's going to run to take the place of our fascist-friendly Senator Max Baucus?

    -9.50/-7.59 - "Why are the missiles called peace-keepers when they're aimed to kill?" -Tracy Chapman

    by Situational Lefty on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 10:18:57 PM PDT

  •  so I was poring over those ACS numbers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    brief thoughts on states where I've lived:

    1) Surprised that RI-01 is growing faster than RI-02. I thought South County would be the fastest-growing part of the state for the foreseeable future.
    2) Unless we see a big turnaround soon, there is no way IL can keep three black-majority districts next decade.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 10:20:01 PM PDT

    •  I agree on point 2 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think we'll end up seeing the end of the split IL-4, with the southern part combined with the northern part of IL-3 to create a new Hispanic-majority IL-3, and the northern part of IL-4 combined with the western part of IL-7 to create a coalition majority-minority IL-4.  Davis would probably lose the IL-4 to Guttierez, and Lipinski would be replaced in IL-3 by someone more progressive.  

      I also think that OH-11 will no longer be a majority African-American district, and that Michigan will see one of the two majority African-American seats convert to a coalition seat, aided by Asian-Americans in certain suburbs and Detroit's relatively small Mexican-American community (Niños de la ciudad nacidos y criados en el sur de Detroit).

      Republican, MI-11, Member of the DKE Engineering Caucus, SSP: Bort

      by Bart Ender on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 05:35:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  OH-Gov Kasich may override the statehouse... (7+ / 0-)

    ...and expand Medicaid without them through the use of an interesting loophole in Ohio law:

    http://www.cleveland.com/...

    Good for Kasich.  Bad for Fitzgerald.  Good for Ohio.  There is also a ballot initiative for it being initiated as we speak.  Kasich would rather do it now, though, 'cos the state gets more money opting in before October.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 10:35:51 PM PDT

    •  Hmmm (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, itskevin, LordMike

      I'm always interested to hear about similar issues in neighboring states.  Michigan and Ohio have nearly equal splits in their Senate (Republican control of approximately 70% of the seats), though, in Michigan, the House is closer (54% vs. 61% in Ohio).  

      In Michigan, the Senate was the huge obstacle, but Snyder was able to scrounge up just enough support to get the Medicaid expansion through, and the House voted for it overwhelmingly.  

      I'm not sure if the difference, here, is Michigan's House being more Democratic, or that this has to do with Michigan Republicans being a bit more moderate, but it's an interesting juxtaposition.  What I do know is that the tea party, here, has thrown said that this is the vote that broke the camels back, and they are now in full revolt mode.  

  •  Orange County transgender homecoming queen (6+ / 0-)

    Crowned tonight at Marina High School in Huntington Beach.

    http://www.latimes.com/...

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 11:26:14 PM PDT

  •  VA-Gov: disconnect in messaging (15+ / 0-)

    I commented the other night that I heard a radio ad on my p.m. commute by Cooch attacking TMac on Obamacare and being close to Obama.

    Well, tonight I'm at dinner with the wife and kids at a new TexMex joint in McLean when I see a Dem campaign field staffer I've met before and say hello, and it turns out he's there to put a TMac poster in the window of the restaurant whose ownership are happily on Team Blue.  And the poster is a picture of TMac and...Obama.

    So Cooch is campaigning tying TMac to Obama.

    And TMac is campaigning......tying himself to Obama.

    Looks like Dem and GOP polling and focus groups are saying opposite things, just like last year!

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 11:26:22 PM PDT

    •  Bi partisan campaigning (6+ / 0-)

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 11:29:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Is the area diverse? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      And in this case, by "diverse" I mean are there a lot of black people?

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 05:49:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, not as a percentage (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MichaelNY

        The "area" described as NoVA is nearly 30% of the entire state's population, and of course the radio ad reached all of NoVA.  The restaurant in McLean is in a community that's mostly white and most of the minorities, I think no more than one-quarter of the total local population and probably a little less, are "Asian," which demands quotation marks because it's a mixed bag of Asian ethnicities that don't really represent a voting community (although almost all Asian subgroups are far more Democratic than whites).

        McLean did favor Obama over McCain strongly, but less strongly over Romney primarily IMO due to Obama's economic populist message and tax policy which aren't well-received among very affluent socially liberal voters here.

        The bottom line is Obama still is well-liked in McLean, and even moreso in NoVA overall, which is why Cuccinelli's radio ad probably is poorly-considered.  It might (or might not since Obamacare is not a voting issue in this Governor's race) be a good ad downstate, but not here.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 06:45:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Pres Obama barely win Va in Pres year turnout (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Cuccinelli is banking on his ability to turn out the fervent anti-Obama GOP base better in a non-Presidential election.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 09:04:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  How are things going? Still bullish? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 05:59:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I posted this comment because... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, kleinburger

        ...it's obvious to me the competing messages reflect TMac being in control.

        Cooch can be talking only to conservatives with that Obamacare radio ad.  No one else would gravitate toward him for that.  And that's a bad sign for Cooch that this is what his campaign thinks he needs to do at this stage.

        Or, Cooch's campaign team are just so stupid that they think this ad actually might move nonpartisan and soft partisan voters.  I don't put it past some Republican campaign people to think that way, but usually you get smarter ones than that working a VA-Gov race.

        And TMac tying himself to Obama shows confidence on his part, he thinks it helps him turn out some voters he needs without alienating anyone.  At least in NoVA, I think that's right.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 06:36:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  From Comment on Kentucky this weekend (7+ / 0-)

    Panel: Guest Host Bill Bryant from WKYT in Lexington, Ronnie Ellis from CNHI, Roger Alford from the AP, and Janet Patton from the Lexington Herald Leader

    Issue 1- Bobby Sherman, the head of the Legislative Research Commission (LRC) has resigned his position. He has been there for 31 years, and had been the head of it for a while. This is in the wake of issues involving now former Rep. John Arnold (D-Sturgis) and after the LRC was found to have handled the investigation properly. Sherman tried to leave in 2008, but was kept because he was seen as critical. It looks like he wanted out. Attorneys from the LRC have said they are not interested in settling with the women involved here. The special committee investigating the Arnold matter is proceeding. Even though he has resigned, they can still censure him and/or fine him. The committee may recommend sexual harassment training for legislators.

    US Senate Race- A few days out from the 3rd quarter fundraising deadline. Alison Grimes is doing a lot of fundraisers right now to get a good total. Both sides are working the coal industry. She is full on pro-coal, and attacking McConnell on the issue, as McConnell is with her, especially on her Harry Reid fundraiser. ALG responds with what has McConnell done for us lately. Eastern KY lawmakers are lining up behind ALG on this. In the primary, Matt Bevin got into a spat with McConnell campaign manager Jesse Benton on Constitution Day. Benton made Bevin look bad. The panel notes that there is less demand for coal, given the switchover to natural gas, and some more mild winters. McConnell and Republicans are blaming on it on the EPA. ALG also opposes the EPA regulations. Ronnie Ellis notes that environmental activists say they don't see little difference between the candidates. The new EPA regulations likely mean no new coal fired power plants in the country, but that natural gas has went down in price so much that coal fired plants were not on the drawing board anyway.

    Bourbon- Tourism, exports mean it is on the rise. Gov. Beshear is even in Europe promoting bourbon. Overseas demand for Kentucky bourbon is growing big time. Jim Beam and Brown Forman are putting a lot into increasing production, tourism, warehouses. The Kentucky Bourbon trail is growing by leaps and bounds. The industry wants changes to the barrel tax to let them reinvest the money rather than pay the tax.

    Hemp- AG Comm James Comer and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Bowling Green) want the Justice Dept. to let Kentucky go forward with industrial hemp production given the Obama Administration's position on Washington and Colorado's position on marijuana laws. Paul wants something in the Farm Bill on the issue. Good luck with that.

    I will be going through several districts Saturday- IN-09, KY-01, KY-02, TN-05, and TN-06 on my way to downtown Nashville at Bridgestone Arena for someone's last North American concert of 2013. I wonder if you all can figure out who that might be... and on Congressional Districts, I have been to every state but Hawaii, and I think I am going to plot where in the states I have been to see how many districts I have been to.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 01:04:27 AM PDT

  •  Pope Francis (10+ / 0-)

    Folks, this Pope is not fooling around, and it looks to me like he's a radical, in the sense of trying to return the Church to its roots by following Christ and St. Francis. Have a look at this diary. I'm no Catholic, but I believe in this Pope.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 01:41:54 AM PDT

    •  Some people are saying that he walked his... (7+ / 0-)

      ...last statement back by restating opposition to abortion.  I don't think so. I think it was a bone thrown to the conservatives who control the church now, since they still hold a lot of power.  Francis, as you stated, is not fooling around, and he may even be putting his life in danger. Hence the bone thrown at the powers that be. Certainly, he is the incredible miracle that we'd all been hoping for, but never thought we'd get.  I hope he manages to live a long time and influences others in the Church.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 07:32:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well he is a Jesuit! (5+ / 0-)

      He does seem to be more of a reformer than I originally thought he would be.

      That said, he's not going to allow priests to marry or allow women to become priests anytime soon. And he's still opposed to rational birth control and marriage equality.

      And one huge negative is that he's 76 and might not have enough time to make too many reforms, though I guess he does have really good health care. Looking at Wikipedia, Pope John Paul II was 58 and the average age (since 1503) has been 64 at the time of their election.

      We shall see. Too early to tell really.

      •  Very nice from a Jesuit. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A, MichaelNY

        Traditionally, they were the more zealous Catholics.  Not nuts like the Opus Dei, but willing to kill and die for their faith.  I guess between Pope Francis and Tim Kaine, the Jesuits are pretty cool lately.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 05:56:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm a former catholic, and I love this guy. (6+ / 0-)

      I was very wary of him at the beginning, because he was very publicly anti-gay when he was Archbishop of Buenos Aires. But maybe be had a change of heart with his election. Anyway, I have a hard time finding fault in anything he's done in his papacy.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 09:53:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I've been saying (4+ / 0-)

      I've been saying since he made the comments that he did that if only this is a change in tone - and I think that's all this is - this is huge.  He's basically throwing down the gauntlet and telling the conservatives in the church to STFU as it concerns these hot-button political social issues.  He's also sending out the signal that they don't have his support for their craziness at the time.  He's most certainly trying to discourage them, and pull the rug from out under them.  If they are going to continue with their crusades, they'll be doing it alone, or, that is to say, without the help of the guy at the top.

      This is a two thousand year old institution.  It does not turn quickly.  There is no way in hell (pun intended) that he could just come out and say yes to same sex marriage and abortion and the like and keep his life.  You bet your sweet as they'd dispatch him.  And, quickly frankly, I don't think he believes in same sex marriage and abortion and the like.  

      What this guy does believe in is the self preservation of the church, and he sees the writing on the wall.  They are losing these cultural wars in the secular sphere.  He realizes that if he doesn't call a retreat for his troops from the secular sphere on these issues, the church will continue to crumble and that expending this effort on this issues will only expediate that implosion.

      This man is pragmatic like few others before him.  Whatever his reasoning, liberal Catholics and their allies outside the church should run with this like the wind.  Again, this is HUGE.

      •  It is more than that (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, MichaelNY, askew

        Francis realizes that the place for growth for the Catholic Church is in the "Global South", i.e. South America, Asia, and Africa.  People down there aren't concerned about cultural issues (they may oppose abortion and same-sex marriage, but they don't obsess about it.).  People there are concerned about poverty, economic inequality, war, and other things.  Bellowing hard about cultural issues doesn't help anyone in those areas.

        In the West, as you mentioned, the church has lost the culture wars.  But I don't think that Francis is playing to the West.  If he is successful in a rebirth of Catholicism in the US and Europe, that is icing on the cake, but that isn't his primary objective.

        •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

          Except that the Church has been losing culture wars on abortion and gay rights in Latin American countries, too.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 03:16:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Disagree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I don't think this was aimed at the developing world.  This was a clear shot across the bow at Western bishops and cardinals.  If he'd meant for the audience of this interview to be the developing world, he'd have expounded on those other issues.  This was an almost explicit political statement to conservative bishops in the West to cut that crap out.

      •  Can you imagine what would happen (0+ / 0-)

        to the Catholic Church if Francis were "dispatched".

  •  Progressives becoming the new Tea Party? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, redrelic17, Gygaxian

    Ruth Conniff, the editor of The Progressive Magazine, wrote this piece asking whether or not progressives are becoming "the new Tea Party" and even suggested that progressive primary challenges to corporate Democrats may become commonplace over the next several years.

    We've made ourselves known over the past several months...Bill Daley's exit from the IL-Gov race, Bill de Blasio's victory in the NYC-Mayor Democratic primary, progressive/anti-war activists convincing Tammy Baldwin to oppose an AUMF against Syria (which was what forced Obama and Kerry to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Syria), Nancy Pelosi getting booed at Netroots Nation, Larry Summers withdrawing his name from consideration to be the next Fed chair.

    I'll go as far to say that a Second Progressive Era in American politics may be not too far off into the future...also, we find the "Tea Party of the Left" label to be an insult.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 02:33:34 AM PDT

  •  Starting to wonder if Ted Cruz is performance art (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bjssp, BeloitDem, bythesea

    Might be the only way to explain the combination of his general dickishness, dunderheaded moves, and Ivy League degrees.

    •  Heads up for a Marina Abramovic primary challenge (0+ / 0-)

      from the right to like... Pat Toomey, then.

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 05:59:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm interested in downballot statewide offices (9+ / 0-)

    and put together these three handy maps showing you the partisan affiliations of state level lieutenant governors (or their equivalents), attorneys general, and secretaries of state (or equivalent).

     photo StateLieutenantGovernors_zps2ee01af0.png

    First Lt. Govs. States in the darker colors are elected separately while those in the medium are elected on the same ticket as the gov, and those in the lighest blue or pink don't have that office and some other office serves as 1st in line. I couldn't readily find Florida's line of succession since their Lt. Gov is vacant, but it's elected on a same ticket as the gov.

    Annoyingly, Missouri and Vermont both elected Republican Lt. Govs along with Democratic governors, while Maine and New Hampshire's senate presidents are first in line and of opposite parties as their governors.

     photo StateAttorneysGeneral_zps5238d63a.png

    Next we have attorneys general where only 7 states do not separately elect the position. In Alaska, Hawaii, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Wyoming they're appointed by the governor, in Tennessee by the state Supreme Court, and in Maine by the state legislature (my preferred system). While not so pervasive as it was before 2010, there are still several blue states with Republican AGs and several red states with Democratic ones.

     photo StateSecretariesofState_zps5e5b5107.png

    Finally, there are secretaries of state. Duties vary by state with many but not all administering elections in the state which is why the office is so important in places like Ohio. Four states don't have this as a separate office and instead the duties fall to the Lt. Governor, while in 8 the governor appoints the officeholder and in Maine the legislature does.

    I'll probably make a map for the office of treasurer/auditor, but those aren't as important and not every state that elects things like AG or SoS separately elects those. On one end you have the group of NJ, TN, MN, and NH which only elect gov and senate, while on the other you have Alabama and Texas which elect all of their judicial offices, even things like "court of criminal appeals" (Alabama had ~50 statewide offices up for election over the past few cycles).

  •  I'm most interested in the race (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, askew

    to the opening of the insurance exchanges - in 9 days!

    The CT exchange has a countdown clock on the home page, which is unstoppably ticking down:
    http://www.accesshealthct.com/

    Very eager to find out what my monthly premiums will be in CT. I'm guessing it will be a good deal less than the 650ish/month I'd be paying under my current plan next year. Could even be a couple hundred dollars a month in savings.

    I might even have enough to buy a few rounds of drinks on one of these open threads. ;-) And some extra cash to give to favorite candidates!

  •  I have been concerned about the Lane County (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, redrelic17

    Commission, as in the last two election years the once-progressive majority in this strongly Democratic county was shriveled down to just one man, Pete Sorenson, who represents South Eugene.

    In the western Lane district that is largely rural and small towns, we have Dawn Lesley running. She's a graduate of Emerge Oregon and an engineer from Santa Clara (a mostly unincorporated area in northwest Eugene).  She's also fundraising pretty well already, with around $27,000 in the bank.

    According to that article we also have three candidates in the eastern Lane district, which is also largely rural and small towns, where Faye Stewart is the commissioner and has been for years. Its more conservative, particularly in the south. Joann Ernst is from Eugene and has been on local boards, but the most recent news about her has been her suit against the county related to her son's arrest and a search for drugs at her home. Kevin Matthews is also running, an environmental activist from Dexter. Jose Ortal is the other candidate, a consultant in Blue River who used to work for the community college.

    Reading that material (and with a little knowledge of the area and people there) I think Dawn Lesley probably has a good shot, while the others in the east Lane district are probably too progressive (like Ernst saying she's opposed to more logging, Matthews sounds similar).  It has most of the conservative parts of the county, and few areas that vote very progressively.

    The district in Springfield will also be up, but I don't see any opponents for Sid Leiken yet.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 09:34:38 AM PDT

    •  oh, and putting this in perspective (0+ / 0-)

      there are 5 districts total, and 5 commissioners.

      Position 1 West Lane, which we held until 2010 with a moderate independent but now has a libertarian.

      Position 2 Springfield, which we held until 2010 with a good Democrat and now has Sid Leiken.

      Position 3 South Eugene, which is the progressive stronghold.

      Position 4 North and West Eugene, which we held until 2012 and now has a moderate former Republican legislator.

      Position 5 East Lane, where Faye Stewart has been for a while, and for a while he was the only conservative on the commission.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 10:24:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Also interested in AZ-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Besides the Democratic field being seemingly cleared for DuVal, has there been any new developments in that race?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 10:01:24 AM PDT

    •  And potential downballot wins for Dems (0+ / 0-)

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 05:53:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Most Unintentionally hilarious ad (16+ / 0-)

    I've seen in quite a while. Seriously, this is almost demon sheep territory.

  •  I found a Downton Abbey clip (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Avenginggecko

    involving politics on Youtube where over dinner Lady Violet is horrified at the idea of Lady Sybil getting involved in a by-election by canvasing for the Liberal party candidate.

    You gotta love Maggie Smith's wit and that clip reminds me of how I still miss Lady Sybil....

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 11:45:36 AM PDT

  •  You know, I'm honestly curious (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, WisJohn

    about the exact composition of the winning voter coalition of Jim Matheson and other red state Dems. Example: How many ticket-splitters, how many Hispanic and black voters, how many progressives, how many moderate Mormons are in Matheson's coalition? And is there any way to mix and match the composition of that coalition and still win, especially if Matheson isn't a candidate? I.e., what kind of winning coalition would Luz Robles over in UT-02 need to win? How many Hispanic voters would make up for a loss of single-issue (on immigration), but otherwise moderate voters? That sort of thing. And how many non-base voters can be courted without the power of a family name?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 09:51:49 PM PDT

    •  I remember a discussion of Heitkamp's coalition (11+ / 0-)

      It included at least the following:
      1) Young Fargo-area voters who didn't like Berg's ties to a slumlord company, and besides are generally a bit more liberal than their parents.
      2) Native Americans, who Heitkamp took special efforts to mobilize. In North Dakota, they are almost monolithically Democratic when they vote.
      3) Farmers in the eastern part of the state. They're conservative, but don't have a group grievance with Democrats the way farmers in the South and Lower Midwest do.

      This coalition can win North Dakota, even while losing fairly big in western ND (though Heitkamp still outperformed Obama there). It's just that it's hard to appeal to all three groups at the same time, which is why ND is red.

      Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 10:10:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's exactly what I'm looking for, thanks! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fearlessfred14, MichaelNY

        Heitkamp was the one I was going to mention, but somehow pondering over her coalition slipped my mind.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sat Sep 21, 2013 at 10:20:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Also I think (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, MichaelNY, gabjoh, WisJohn

        there are a lot of North Dakotans who aren't as partisan as in other states.  There are a lot of populists there, if they think that you are independent and likable, they are willing to cross party lines and vote for you.  It is the same phenomenon is states like Montana and Alaska as well.  
        I think there are a lot more voters in these states who could care less which party controls the Senate than in states like Louisiana or Texas.  Which is why I think Begich has a decent chance of being reelected, and Landrieu is in much bigger trouble than people think.

  •  While driving home from Nashville (6+ / 0-)

    to see a certain performer who had a horrible cold yet flawlessly performed her final concert of the year, when going through Kentucky, I always love the road signs there. Kentucky spends a lot of its budget on roads, so there is a big parkway system of state, non-interstate, but interstate quality highways. Also a lot of other pretty good roads there. I was on I-65, which is named for Abraham Lincoln (don't think they will change that one, but maybe- the Daniel Boone Parkway is now the Hal Rogers Parkway). Went past roads for Henry Waterson, Gene Snyder, William Natcher, Louie Nunn, Joe Prather, Wendell Ford, and Martha Lane Collins. They really like to name their roads for former politicians in the state. These are different from other places where there is just a sign. People in many of these areas use the person's name. And there are two new bridges in Louisville coming online. So more names for them (though Kentucky is building the downtown bridge and Indiana is working on the east end bridge).

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 01:29:16 AM PDT

  •  VI-Gov, VI-AL (8+ / 0-)

    So on a whim I looked up what was going on in the U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election in 2014, where incumbent Democratic Governor John de Jongh is term-limited.

    And I found out that earlier this year, incumbent Democratic Delegate to Congress Donna Christian-Christensen announced she was running! This will be the first time since 1996 that the at-large Delegate seat for USVI will be open. This is from Green Papers, but the only news reference I can find for it was a deleted tweet: http://inagist.com/...

    I can't find anyone announcing for the (apparently) open delegate seat either. This is all very far below the radar.

    25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 02:05:29 AM PDT

  •  English live coverage of the German election (4+ / 0-)

    Spiegel Online will start at 11 AM Eastern.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 07:11:02 AM PDT

  •  Hillary Clinton's interview with New York Magazine (5+ / 0-)

    is out. Let's just say she's definitely running. I don't think it's too much of a leap.

    http://nymag.com/...

    •  I wouldn't say it is certain (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, MichaelNY

      but I think if in early 2015, she is healthy and thinks she can win (that is, no disasters that would make the D brand toxic), she runs for sure.

      •  Political Wire has quotes from insiders (3+ / 0-)

        They think she'll run. As long as Obama doesn't drop much below where he is now in approval then I think she can withstand the drag of an incumbent administration.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 09:05:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree she'll run (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          What I was saying is that if Obama is in the same situation that GWB was in 2007-2008; that is the party brand is so toxic that it would be very difficult for a D to win, then she may bail.

          As long as Obama is above 40, I think HRC has a decent chance.  She'll win a lot of crossover white women, and that with the non-white base makes the path for a R very difficult.

          •  40% is a decent arbitrary way to look at it (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Bush territory would make it very tough. They would have to nominate a real nut for her to still have a chance.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 10:03:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I will also say this (0+ / 0-)

      A President Hillary Clinton would be similar to a Jerry Ford or GHWB (or a Harry Truman or LBJ), and less a Reagan/Clinton/GWB/Obama.  
      She would be very much an insider President, and that has its positives (willingness to use power) and negatives (ignoring the grassroots).  I think there will be a lot of antipathy toward her from the progressive wing during her Presidency.  OTOH, I also think she may be able to lower the level of polarization and partisanship in the country for the exact same reason.

      •  I doubt it (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, R30A, MichaelNY

        If 2008 had turned out slightly differently you would be saying the same about Obama. She starts with strong bipartisan respect but that isn't going to last. I do you agree with you about her attraction to white women.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 10:10:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think some of that would be (5+ / 0-)

        because a lot of the hard work on certain issues will have already been done by/during the Obama admin.

        I dont expect Obamacare rollout to be perfect, but if it stands and expands insurance to millions by 2016, then the law isnt going away, we would probably just be talking about how to tinker with it, not repeal it.

        Similar thing on gay rights. A lot of things that still need to be done(ENDA, for one), but a lot of the heavy lifting on things like DOMA(the moves by the admin to  expand military/employment/tax benefits to gay couples) and DADT repeal is over.

        •  This is probably right (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, LordMike

          It is kind of the same way that Reagan had done most of the heavy lifting for conservatism, so GHWB was able to soften the edges.  Same with Jerry Ford after the very polarizing Nixon (who was just absolutely hated by the left, and tolerated but not loved by the right, sort of the reverse of Obama).  

        •  Just imagine what Obama could have accomplished (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          if he didn't have to spend so much time cleaning-up Bill's messes (DOMA, DADT, 3-strikes, etc.).  Obama is leaving behind a lot fewer messes to clean-up than W and Bill did.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 09:15:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  ... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            A lot of the messes you just mentioned weren't perceived as messes until after their terms. What Obama's messes might be won't be known for awhile.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 09:29:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think that is true at all. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              People knew DADT, DOMA and 3-strikes were bad policy in the 1990s as they did with welfare reform, NAFTA, repeal of Glass-Steagall.  There were bad bills with lots of unhappy people all-around. No one should be surprised that these left messes to clean-up.  There really isn't anything similar to that in Obama's domestic policies yet. That is something that Chris Hayes's has talked about in the past. That both Obama and Clinton have compromised on progressive policy, but Obama's compromises have been short-term compromises that won't leave lingering problems unlike Clinton's compromises.

              President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

              by askew on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 09:50:36 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Not certain but probable (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 09:01:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Gov/Wisconsin politics/IL-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    To be honest with you, I'm absolutely shocked that the Republicans who run the Wisconsin State Legislature haven't tried to effectively neutralize Mary Burke's potential candidacy for Governor of Wisconsin. You'd figure that they would push to enact a law that would outright prohibit candidates for non-federal office in Wisconsin from spending more than $100,000 (or some other similar amount) of their own money on a campaign (i.e., place a "hard limit" on self-funding), however, there's been no movement whatsoever by Republicans to do so.

    That's something I support out of principle (I don't like the idea of rich people buying elections with millions of dollars of their own wealth, regardless of which party they're affiliated with or what their views on the issues are), however, if Republicans were to push for something like that, it would clearly because they're afraid that Mary Burke might defeat Scott Walker (I don't think she can barring a 2006-style Democratic wave). This is almost like 2010 in reverse: Democrats had Jim Doyle in the governor's mansion and had majorities in both houses of the Legislature, and they could have used their power to implement a non-partisan redistricting process in Wisconsin, but didn't do so.

    Illinois has a "soft limit" on how much of their own money candidates in non-federal races can spend, whereas Wisconsin has no limits whatsoever. Bruce Rauner, one of four Republicans running for Governor of Illinois, can self-fund as much as he wants on his campaign, however, if he were to spend even one penny over $250,000, Rauner's three primary challengers, Bill Brady, Dan Rutherford, and Kirk Dillard, would be able to raise unlimited amounts of money from other people.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 09:00:25 AM PDT

  •  (Somewhat) Brilliant news for Chancellor Merkel! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KyleinWA, Possible Liberal, MichaelNY

    The CDU/CSU is possibly on course for an absolute majority by itself.
    Both the FDP and AfD are slightly below the 5.0% threshold, according to the latest figures.

    •  Meh (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh

      Quite a turnaround for the chancellor, that.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 10:04:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It seems like we need the AfD (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      (the center right anti-Euro party) to clear the threshold to force a grand coalition. Either way, it seem like Merkel with be able to continue bleeding the rest of the continent dry.

      27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 10:10:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I looked up the CDU site (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      and used Google's automatic German-to-English translator.  One of the titles of the CDU press releases translated as "Red-green tax increase threatens recovery orgy!"  Wouldn't want to stop that party now, would we?

      For the record, I abstracted and indexed the whole Statistical Abstract of Germany, which my company is putting out as part of its "Statistical Abstract of the World" series.  While I had some knowledge of the language, with the help of Rosetta Stone and several vacations there, I had to Google Translate much of the document and that produced some, er, interesting results when presented with those long German words that try to combine several ideas or descriptors into one.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 11:04:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Seats (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      According to projections made by broadcaster ARD, Chancellor Merkel's conservatives will receive 298 seats in parliament and the center-left Social Democrats will be able to send 184 lawmakers. The Greens will have 57 seats, the Left Party 59 and Merkel's current junior coalition partner, the business-friendly Free Democrats, seem to have failed to achieve the 5 percent threshold necessary for representation

      •  If these projections are correct (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, brooklyncyclones

        CDU has 298 vs 300 for SPD/Greens/Left.  Could Merkel pick off a couple SPD members and give them a cabinet position or will she be forced into a coalition w/ the SPD (or possibly the Greens)?

        •  SPD and Greens won't join with The Left (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

          by HoosierD42 on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 03:59:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I know that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            And the CDU is knocking on the door for a majority.  The question is whether SPD and Greens can enforce party discipline and refuse to let wayward members join the CDU government, or whether the CDU is forced into a coalition with one of the two parties.

          •  Why is that? Technically the leftist parties (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            all together have an absolute majority, so I'm just curious about why the politics would prevent them from forming a government

            •  The Left is too purist (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              and won't form a coalition with capitalist pigs. That's what I remember reading at least (it's like the communists in Greece)

              Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

              by fearlessfred14 on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 06:45:50 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I thought it was also the Socialists (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                redrelic17, HoosierD42

                who wouldn't approve a coalition with the former Communists.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 07:10:15 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  No, that's not right (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, fearlessfred14

                The Left Party (and before that the PDS) has taken part in a number of governments on state level in the East and shown itself very willing to compromise. Nothing like the diehards of the Greek KKE.

                What is true is that the Left Party has been struggling with sharp internal divisions ever since it was created as a merger of the PDS (East-German ex-communists) and WASG (West-Germans trade unionists and lefties). Perhaps surprisingly, it's the PDS wing that's pretty pragmatic and eager to govern, whereas the WASG wing has a lot of true believers who'd rather stay in opposition. So this would make a coalition government with the Left on national level an exercise in brinkmanship.

                However, that's not the primary reason why the SPD won't form a national coalition with the Left. The loaded history of the Left Party is much more important, even 23 years after unification. Forming coalitions on state or local level within the East is one thing, but forming a national coalition would trigger a stampede of centrist/moderate West-German voters who still see the Left (even post-merger) as the offspring of the East-German communist regime. When an SPD leader in the state of Hesse broke her campaign promise not to ally with the Left and tried to form a government with them after all five years ago, she was brought down by her party colleagues and her party lost the subsequent early elections in a landslide.

      •  The CDU probably (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, TeaBaggersAreRacists

        falls just short of a majority. IMO, a coalition with the Greens may actually be likelier than a black/red coalition.

      •  Germany's seat allocation explained (0+ / 0-)
        The Infamous 'Überhangmandate*'

        The representatives that enter parliament as a result of vote percentages (as opposed to having received a "direct mandate" from the first vote) come off the parties' candidate lists. Each party has a list for each state. A party's state-by-state result, in combination with the size of each state, helps determine where the additional candidates are drawn from.

        If everyone in the country cast both of their votes for the same party, there would be no problem whatsoever. But they don't.

        Imagine that the Left Party in Saxony wins eight districts on the basis of the first votes. But its percentage based on second votes was only enough to guarantee the party six seats in Berlin. Germany's election law guarantees all district winners a seat in the Bundestag. The result would be two so-called "Überhangmandate" or "overhang mandates."

        That, though, would skew the share of seats in parliament based on the percentage of the vote received via the second vote. It is a real problem; in 2009, the Christian Democrats had 21 such "Überhangmandate." It is this skewing that led the Constitutional Court to declare Germany's election system unconstitutional.

        The new system grants all other parties additional seats to compensate -- so-called "Ausgleichmandate" -- so that each party's share of seats in parliament is consistent with the number of second votes it received. This means, of course that the number of representatives in the Bundestag can be much higher than the 598 foreseen. Indeed, the new law means it could theoretically swell to up to 800 members. Not surprisingly, every new legislative period begins with a construction crew moving, removing or adding seats on the plenary floor in the Reichstag.

      •  Results (h/t GerGOP) (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCal
        ARD
        CDU/CSU 41,7%
        SPD 25,6%
        FDP 4,7%
        Linke 8,5%
        Greens 8,4%
        AfD 4,7%

        296 seats, 300 needed.

        ZDF

        CDU/CSU 41,8%
        SPD 25,6%
        FDP 4,8%
        Linke 8,4%
        Greens 8,5%
        AfD 4,7%

        301 seats, 304 needed.

        287 of 299 districts in.

        The difference is due to the possibility of the uberhangmandate.
    •  Some of the analysis is a little unfair to Germany (9+ / 0-)

      I have been traveling quite a bit to Germany in the past year, and although I don't think this gives me any special insight, I have watched this election fairly closely. (Though my limited German language skills limit most of what I can follow to English-language media.)

      Let me say this up front: I believe the austerity policies of the Eurozone are a travesty and a human tragedy. Greece and Cyprus should probably make a managed exit from the Euro, while the remainder of the Eurozone should be allowed somewhat higher inflation, greater flexibility in meeting their budgetary targets, and moves should be made towards Eurobonds and some kind of transfer union.

      That being said, I think a lot of the analysis of why Germans are hostile to these ideas misses some crucial context. Regarding inflation, for example, it is commonly said to be a reaction against German hyperinflation in the 1920s. This is silly. Nobody expects hyperinflation. Rather, the hostility to inflation comes from a couple of different sources. One, there is an instinctive small-c conservative among German economists and among the broader population, which culturally places a heavy value on a stable currency. If you're looking to history, it is the economic success of postwar West Germany, much of which is due to the stability of the Deutschmark, which is the relevant example. A second factor is the size and scale of the German financial industry, which, like all lenders, is hostile to inflation.

      Third, however, is the fact that Germans themselves are heavy savers. Very little in Germany is spent on credit. Germans have relatively low rates of home ownership and high rates of renting. This means that inflation is a net negative for most German households in a way that isn't true of most households in the United States or other more credit-dependent countries.

      The other thing to keep in mind is why the politics of bailouts are so negative in Germany. And it really isn't a difficult thing to understand when you look at it in context. Germans are by and large fronting the bill for bailouts of the Eurozone's Southern members. And although one could argue (as outside observers have) that German banks played a large role in fueling the bubble economies of Southern Europe, to German voters, they are being asked to fork over large sums of money to countries which, in many cases, did play a large role in their own collapse.

      Recall for a second how toxic bailout politics are in the United States itself. Now imagine that it isn't the nationally-elected Congress making these choices, but direct transfers in which the legislatures of wealthy states have to authorize transfers to poorer states from their own revenues. As you can imagine, the politics are substantially worse. At least a federal legislature has a mandate from the country as a whole, and can collect revenues from wealthier communities all across the country (even in poorer states).

      That helps explain why there is such little appetite for greater transfers to the Southern members of the Eurozone. In the long-run it suggests that for the Eurozone to really be an effective fiscal and transfer union, decisions need to be made not in national governments but by a Eurozone-wide executive, responsible to European voters and the European parliament. But that of course opens a whole separate can of worms.

      •  Excellent post (0+ / 0-)

        I completely agree with you. But, of course, it's difficult persuading countries -- especially large economies like France and Germany, which might have to give up some of their outsize influence, and especially outlying countries like Ireland, which are sometimes reluctant to identify with continental Europe -- to vest more power over fiscal policy in a Eurozone-wide authority. Hopefully the Eurozone countries will decide that they're willing to make the sacrifices needed for a common currency and market to work.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 04:44:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That would require a loss of sovereignty (0+ / 0-)

          The fallacy of the unified currency is precisely that you end up with one country dictating policy to others, rather than a single country making policy for all, with the rich areas subsidizing the poor ones. However, even within countries, that doesn't always work well. Some northern parts of Italy deeply resent subsidizing the south (partly because of corruption in the south), and German reunification led to tensions between the subsidizers and the subsidized for a while.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 07:13:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  But countries like Greece and Cyprus (4+ / 0-)

        are subsidizing German industry, by letting the euro remain strong. I don't feel like getting too into this, but I think this has clearly shown everyone that a unified monetary policy without a unified fiscal policy is a horrible idea.

        "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 06:01:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  ... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo, gabjoh

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 03:05:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  does this mean (0+ / 0-)

      we can forget about gay marriage there?

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 05:35:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA-Gov: Good ad by Mark Warner! (7+ / 0-)

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 10:56:15 AM PDT

    •  That helps. For real. (4+ / 0-)

      That ad helps McAuliffe the same way the OFA's Colin Powell ad helped Obama.

      And along those lines, Ben Tribbett has another excellent blog post here about the juxtaposition of Warner doing an ad for TMac who he always feuded with and despised, versus the GOP clowns.

      Also a little nugget there that TMac has been telling donors that Bolling is ready to publicly endorse him whenever TMac wants.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 06:42:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would be surprised if Bolling did that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        He would be giving up any shot at running for governor in 2017 as a Republican.  I guess he could pull a Charlie Crist... or maybe he's just honestly done with politics.

        •  Bolling's already ended his political career (7+ / 0-)

          He's blasted the Republican ticket for being extremist and defended McAuliffe on more than one occasion. There's no way he'll be on the statewide ticket in 2017.

          •  That's right & I marvel that anyone thinks... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, KingofSpades, Skaje

            ...Bolling could ever get elected to anything ever again.

            He's pretty much the GOP's Doug Schoen or Artur Davis or Zell Miller or take your pick.

            Bolling is done forever.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 08:46:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Was it all because of the fact (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, ehstronghold, DCCyclone

              that the moment he had waited for for years was pulled out from under him?

              "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

              by KingofSpades on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 09:14:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Mostly (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                I think I linked elsewhere to Ben Tribbett's piece on this at his Not Larry Sabato blog.  Ben linked to TMac's new ad with Mark Warner endorsing him, and used that as a jumping off point to discuss the contrasting ways the parties have handled personal intraparty feuds.  The Bolling vs. Cuccinelli feud is among them.  A good read, I recommend it.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Mon Sep 23, 2013 at 07:08:46 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  I feel kind of sorry for him (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Jorge Harris, Darth Jeff, jncca

              He waited patiently to be governor, allowed McDonnell to go ahead of him, then found things being rigged for Cuccinelli when he arguably was not only at his "turn", but might be running better than Cooch now is.

              While I respect his willingness to call out his party, though, he's probably burned too many bridges to win statewide nomination to anything, even if the statewide GOP ticket loses this year.  And I don't think he can win even if he leaves the party; until recently he had a firmly if quietly conservative record so he wouldn't be convincing as a Democrat in the unlikely event he switched, and he probably doesn't have a strong enough personal profile or appeal to win as a third-party Independent.

              38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 10:10:47 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  GA-Sen: Good New Republic piece on R primary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 12:06:23 PM PDT

    •  I could see this race going to a runoff (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      against Broun or Gingrey, perhaps with Nunn ahead on election day.
      But I'm totally unconvinced that a D can win a runoff in Georgia in 2014, even against Broun or Gingrey.  That would be doubly true if the Senate control hinges on the runoff (or on the Rs winning Georgia and Louisiana).

      •  That's you (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        if you think a Dem can't win a runoff against an extremely flawed candidate. IMO it shouldn't go to a run off, if the R is one of those nutcases. Especially if it's Broun.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 12:21:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Georgia has a very high floor (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          for any R, even a teabagging nut sack, especially in a runoff.  Nunn would have to win lots of votes from business Rs in the Atlanta suburbs to beat Broun/Gingrey.

          It is possible that Nunn could under the right circumstances, win it without the runoff.  But I doubt she would win a runoff.  

          Ds haven't won an open statewide race in Georgia since at least 2002.

          •  We actually came in first with pluralities, (3+ / 0-)

            but then lost the subsequent runoff in a public service commission race in 2006 and 2008. In 2006 we lost by 4.4 after winning the first round by 3 and in 2008 got killed by 13 after narrowly coming in 1st in November, not that much different than Chambliss' 15 point win at the same time (he won by 3 that November).

            I'm not very optimistic about winning even in the first round, but I think it's impossible to do so in the runoff if minority turnout drops like it seems probable to. Rural whites swung hard to the GOP in 2010 and that shift seems, like many of the realignments we've seen over the last 20 years, to be a rather permanent feature. That makes it a lot harder for us to retain the votes we win in November when urban and minority turnout drops off disproportionately more than it does among those white voters.

            Only against Broun do I think we even stand a shot at the runoff and only against him do I think we're a true toss up at this stage for the November 5th round, while Gingrey could turn into one he'll at least be very well funded and have establishment support and not get the Akin treatment. I also don't think Broun really can come close to the nomination; Gingrey is a perfectly fine choice ideologically for the voters Broun has to win, and Broun has raised a truly pathetic amount of money thus far.

            •  Maybe (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, LordMike, psychicpanda

              The path for Nunn is three-fold, (1) Energize the Obama coalition, (2) Do about as well or slightly better as Roy Barnes did in 2010 among rural Georgia whites, and (3) Win a good chunk of white voters in the Atlanta suburbs who usually or always vote R, in particular women.

              Nunn has no chance to do (3) against anyone other than Broun or Gingrey, and hence she won't beat Kingston or Handel.  But against those two, she has a good chance to make strong inroads in the Atlanta suburbs.

              As far as the primary, I think Broun could win.  He has fervent support among teabaggers, Christian jihadists, Paulists/libertarians, and white racists.  Most of the Rs in the primary aren't really concerned about electability, they expect that Rs will win the state regardless.  The Atlanta pro-business Rs are outnumbered in a primary, and I think Handel and Gingrey would largely split those voters (and if one of them makes the runoff, they would be seen as the Atlanta candidate.).  I don't think Broun is the favorite by any means, but he is nowhere near the longshot you peg him as.

              •  You should had said that in your 1st response (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Instead of saying you're totally unconvinced. I wouldn't have been rudely dismissive towards you, which I apologize for.

                I agree it would be tough for Nunn to win against a Kingston and maybe Handel. But Kingston for sure. He's the most electable, and it would be difficult to defeat him. But thankfully he has a small geo base, which makes it difficult for him to emerge from the primary.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 04:04:26 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  What's wrong with "totally unconvinced"? n/t (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  TeaBaggersAreRacists

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 04:18:33 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Nothing (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    That's him if he feel unconvinced. I felt that he contradicted himself a bit when he list the 3 ways on how Nunn can win, when he feels unconvinced she can't when at all against either 4. Specifically Broun or Gingrey.

                    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                    by BKGyptian89 on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 04:38:16 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I guess my post above wasn't clear (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, Stephen Wolf

                      I didn't list the three ways that Nunn could win, I listed the path for Nunn to win, which included three things (all of which Nunn would have to do.)

                      Winning a runoff would be very difficult or impossible since Nunn would most likely be unable to do #1 (which is energize the Obama coalition) against anybody in a runoff.  Stephen Wolf demonstrated that clearly in his post above by showing the dropoff for the Ds in runoffs in the past.  And hence I'm completely unconvinced that Nunn could win a runoff.  I didn't rule out the possibility that Nunn could win a majority in the general against Broun/Gingrey.

                       

          •  Whatever you say dude (0+ / 0-)

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 03:17:09 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe if control was on the line (4+ / 0-)

        It would be worth the president going down to jack up black turnout.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 12:32:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I had an idea (22+ / 0-)

    I wonder if we could come up with a list of "rules of the road for progressive partisans." Things like:

    1) Never vote for the other side's gerrymander. (Don't be, for example, renegade Missouri House Dems.)

    2) Never attack primary opponents using right-wing frames. (Don't be Marty Chavez.)

    3) If you aren't running, don't attack the party's likely nominee. (Don't be Bill Daley.)

    4) Don't fucking form governing coalitions with Republicans, duh. (Don't be the IDC.)

    What else might we include?

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 01:50:15 PM PDT

  •  MD-Gov: Mizeur web video (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    Link

    Granted, Heather Mizeur is the candidate I'd like to see be Maryland's next governor, but, when a candidate uses words like "a different kind of campaign" to describe their campaign for public office, that's usually a sign of a losing campaign.

    I'm not fond of Anthony Brown because he's a Steny Hoyer-endorsed candidate, and Doug Gansler said this about Brown.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 02:52:33 PM PDT

  •  Shelly Moore Capito doesn't care for Tennant's (16+ / 0-)

    "vindictive" and negative campaign. I guess SMC believed this was going to be a coronation, not an actual campaign. Did she not think she was going to be criticized? Complaining about how negative your opponent is and how they are mistreating you even though the campaign is barely a week old is strange. Maybe SMC really does fear Tennant.

    She  also says she's taking the "high road" in this campaign. Does she live in a bubble? That high road is going to get awfully difficult by the time November 2014 rolls around.

    (Sorry if this was already discussed, but I thought her comments were interesting).

    http://www.politico.com/...

  •  By the way, this isn't electoral (6+ / 0-)

    or even political, but if you've seen the news about the adopted black Romney grandson being named Kieran (which means "black"), no, it's not a sign of racism from the Romneys. It's the sign of Mormons not thinking names through and liking the most pretentious sounding one. We do that a lot. We really like pretentious names, as a culture. Or Book of Mormon names. Or both.

    What I'm saying is, don't attribute to malice that which can be explained by just being dumb.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 05:40:25 PM PDT

  •  NY-19: I guess Eldridge officially announced? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

    Sean Eldridge just tweeted that he's officially announcing that he's running.  10:30pm Sunday night is an odd time but its not like it was a mystery of whether he'd run.  

    https://twitter.com/...

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 07:37:02 PM PDT

    •  Unrelated Nebraska question for you (0+ / 0-)

      (can't think of any other Nebraska DKEr's offhand).

      I'm trying to find the partisan affiliation of all the runner-ups in the state legislative elections. The winners were easy enough to find since they're sitting legislators, but it's not easy to find whether they defeated someone of the other party or their own in the general. Any idea where I might find that information?

      Also a Monday announcement for Eldrige seems to be the logical thing but as to why he'd pre-announce via twitter is another matter. Doesn't matter much, the press will all be talking about it tomorrow. I just hope he's willing to self-fund big bucks.

      •  Honestly I have no idea (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        In fact during the election the only way I even know is when I read a news article about the particular candidates ( despite the official nonpartisianship, virtually every news article specifies party affiliation of candidates just like in any other state). But I don't know of any source to get a comprehensive idea.  Sometimes ballotpedia is helpful, but only occasionally do they offer an inkling of a loser's party affiliation (usually just when that loser has some sort of profile i.e. now-mayor Jean Stothert's loss to Steve Lathrop in 2006)

        28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

        by JDJase on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 07:59:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's what I figured (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, JDJase

          Oh well, that means less than 20 names I'll have to look into.

          I love that the legislature is unicameral, but it's annoying as hell from an election-watching perspective that it's non-partisan. Probably helps us win districts though since we're just shy of being able to sustain vetoes and they could probably have easily drawn us down to like 10 seats otherwise.

          •  Agreed (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            CF of Aus, wwmiv, jncca

            It's definitely frustrating during elections, but I think it helps.  I'll leave the number crunching up to you map-n-numbers guys, but the district of one of our Gov candidates, Senator Annette Dubas, is in the 3rd congressional district and is pretty much completely rural, so I imagine it is VERY republican (she's pro-life though, credits her wins to all the pro-life org endorsements she gets, blech).  

            One thing that'll reduce your work though is that a very large number of incumbents running for reelection ran completely unopposed.  It's very common here, and not just safe districts.  For example, Steve Lathrop defeated now-Mayor Jean Stothert buy only 13 votes in 2006, and then in 2010 he was completely unopposed.  

            On a side note, I do like the nonpartisan legislature for policy/procedure standpoint.  For example, even though democrats only have like 30% of the seats, we hold nearly half of the committee chairmanships (including Appropriations).  Also, since there is no majority caucus, EVERY senator gets to prioritize 2 bills every session.  I really like the way our legislature functions, and overall I think it's much more moderate than our governor (and thus, more moderate than leadership would allow it in a traditional setting).  The legislature has overrode the governor's vetoes on several moderate bills in the past year, and has killed his very conservative priorities (such as eliminating the income tax).

            Just my thoughts on it lol.

            28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

            by JDJase on Sun Sep 22, 2013 at 10:30:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  This week in Court Nominations (8+ / 0-)

    I didn't notice this until just now, so I'll repost tomorrow, but here's what happened in courts the last couple weeks:

    Confirmations

    • Valerie Caproni and Vernon Broderick, both to the Southern District of New York (Obama has now appointed 15 of the 27 judges)
    • Elaine Kaplan and Patricia Campbell-Smith, both to the Court of Federal Claims

    Movements on nominations

    • Nina Pillard, one of Obama's 3 nominees to the D.C. Circuit, was voted on in committee, 10-8 on party lines. She's widely perceived as the most liberal of the three nominees and the most likely to be filibustered
    • 3 district court nominations were advanced as well; one in New Hampshire and two in Montana

    New nominations

    • Cynthia Bashant, Southern District of California (Currently 8-4 Republican appointees)
    • Stanley Bastian, Eastern District of Washington (currently 2-1 Democratic)
    • Manish Shah, Northern District of Illinois (currently 11-8 Democratic, with three pending Obama nominees)
    • Jon Levy, District of Maine (currently 1-1)
    • Diane Humetewa , Steven Logan, Douglas Reyes and John Tuchi, all to the District of Arizona (currently 4-3 Republican with 6 vacancies). Humetewa is a Hopi citizen.

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/...

    25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Sep 23, 2013 at 12:07:05 AM PDT

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