I think about politics a lot. I wish I didn't, because life would be much nicer that way. But I do, and it can't be helped. Anyway, over the last few days, I've been chewing on one pretty basic question: why are Ted Cruz and his followers doing what they are doing? Why have they decided to play an all-in game of chicken with what appears to the rest of the world to be a brick wall?
This especially applies to Cruz: he seemed to be a rising conservative star even before this episode. He could have sat this one out, taken a few satisfying potshots at Boehner from the wings, and kept his waxy-skinned carcass intact for a more winnable battle. But instead, there he is, leading his reluctant troops like a bizarro Teddy Roosevelt on what seems to be a suicidal charge into withering public opinion polls and a unified opposition.
(I say "bizarro Teddy Roosevelt" because Roosevelt was covered by withering fire when he charged up San Juan Hill, whereas Cruz has charged into withering fire from his own party and from polls. However, Cruz is also the opposite of Roosevelt in many, many other ways. Example #1: Roosevelt's mighty mustache and Cruz's thin-lipped and eminently punchable mouth represent the two extremes on the spectrum of masculine facial features).
Anyway, read on to see my evaluation of three possible explanations for the strategy and actions of Cruz and his Charge of the Right Brigade:
Possible Explanation 1: Cruz and his followers are just plain stupid. This one is pretty easy to reject, because it's definitely the least likely. I have no doubt that many of the bulbs in the Tea Party caucus are of dubious wattage, but it just seems unlikely that sheer stupidity - i.e., the inability to grasp what the hell is going on - is the reason for them taking the position that they've taken.
Possible Explanation 2: Cruz et al. know that they can't win, but are doing this for national exposure and fundraising dollars.
This is a much more likely option than sheer stupidity. By showing that his commitment to ideological purity is such that he's willing to commit political suicide in its name (and force others to do so, as well), Cruz has proven his tea party chops to the base and has definitely leaped squarely to the front of the GOP's 2016 hopefuls (which is hilarious, BTW - nothing like choosing a kamikaze to be your leader). And it's also a definite possibility that, the eyes of the tea party, it's enough to merely 'stand up' to the President, regardless of outcome. Still, in the end I reject this possible explanation for one reason: I just don't see Cruz risking as much as he has if he really believed that it would end with him getting a spanking in front of all the world - a spanking, furthermore, from the man whom he and his supporters most revile. Cruz was already well-positioned for 2016 - why would he voluntarily and knowingly instigate and lead this particular crusade if he believed that it would lead to a complete and devastating loss? Why would he burn countless bridges with other Republicans if he believed that his case was hopeless? And why would Cruz's followers in the House follow a guy if they believed he was going to lose?
For these reasons, I don't think that Cruz et al. are simply in this particular battle for the media and the fundraising alone. (Note: I'm not saying that exposure and fundraising money aren't a major reason for why they've done what they've done - I'm saying that I don't think that Cruz et al. have done what they've done solely for exposure and fundraising while knowing and believing that they were going to lose).
I think that they believe that they are going to win. They think that they will beat the President in this showdown. And that's because:
Possible Explanation 3: Cruz et al. are certain that the President will blink. The rest of the sentient world, and also some Republicans, believe that the President is not likely to agree to anything that weakens his presidency's signature legislative achievement. However, other Republicans seem to think that the President will eventually negotiate.
I'll forgo an analysis of why they may think this, but I want to emphasize - this possible explanation seems, to me, to be the most logical explanation for the strategy and actions of Cruz and his followers. And if this is indeed the case - if Cruz et al. are fully expecting the President to cave, even a little - then there may be two major implications:
1) Cruz et al. may have no exit strategy. They may be so certain that the President will blink that they have no pre-planned escape hatch.
And
2) Any concession from the President, no matter how small, will be a victory for Ted Cruz, and will make him the de facto leader of the Republican party.
These two possible implications are sobering to me. They suggest that Cruz et al. may be caught off guard if and when it becomes apparent that the President is not bluffing, and that they won't have a politically viable way to back out of their resulting predicament. Their lack of maneuverability may artificially lengthen the shutdown. However, 'winning', for Cruz, may be easier than it might seem at first. Despite all of the bluster, it seems to me that Cruz doesn't have to demolish Obamacare. He just needs to get the President to do something that he would not have otherwise done, and he'll become the undisputed spiritual leader of the right.
In other words: I don't think that Cruz has an exit strategy, and all that he's looking for is one small concession from the President. This means that he will hold on for his life until the very end - or, more accurately, for as long as he can keep his hands wrapped around Boehner's neck.
The strength of Cruz's grip on Boehner would seem to be largely dependent on poll numbers, and therefore it would seem that poll numbers are going to be extremely, extremely important. And in this regard, I think that the President's position is not as unassailable as it seems.
First of all, I think that the standard media headlines may favor the Republicans' position in the eyes of the lower-information voter. For example, imagine that the shutdown is two weeks old, and the headlines read: "The President refuses to re-consider a tax on medical devices". Add the inevitable false-equivalence storylines to the mix, and the result is that it's not nearly a sure thing that the standard media coverage will lead lower-information voters to be sympathetic to the President's position.
And secondly, for all sorts of reasons, the President knows that he cannot give an inch in this particular battle. Not a one. Regardless of the way that the media relates the story, if the government shutdown drags on and people really start to feel the pinch, his no-compromise position may start to alienate lower-information voters who do not understand the uniqueness of this particular battle.
In my view, then, the Republicans have two distinct advantages: headlines and the appearance of being open to 'negotiation'. They win by getting any concession, whereas the President wins only by giving no concessions. Therefore, the Republicans are set up to portray themselves as being the ones who are open to 'negotiating', etc. The result is that lower-information voters who do not understand the situation may easily be led to see the impasse as being due to the President's inflexibility. The potential for this narrative to develop and to begin harming the President will increase with time, I believe, and if the polls start turning against the President, Cruz will likely find that he doesn't even need to keep his hands wrapped around Boehner's neck.
For the Democrats and those on the left, then, the time to win this battle is now. We can't assume that the Republicans will continue to fracture and bicker - if the poll numbers turn around, they will unify in remarkably short order. If the shutdown does drag on, the pressure may shift to the Democrats.
How to win now? Unleash a deluge of letters-to-the-editor, go to battle on Facebook, etc. Anything to ensure that public opinion blames exactly who deserves the blame: Ted Cruz and his Intellectually Light Brigade.