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Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce our first set of gubernatorial race ratings for the 2013-14 election cycle. Democrats are defending 14 seats, while 24 Republican seats are up for re-election, including two next month. Given this disparity, more Republican governorships are vulnerable overall than Democratic ones.

Our full chart rating the competitiveness of each contest is below (with Democratic seats shaded in blue and Republican seats in red), along with a description of our ratings categories and an explanation for why we've rated each race the way we have.

Courtesy Stephen Wolf, we've also put our ratings into map form, with lighter colors representing more competitive races (gray states don't have governors races this cycle):
United States map shaded to show Daily Kos Elections' initial gubernatorial race ratings for 2013-14

Here's how we define our ratings categories:

Safe: Barring unforeseeable developments, one party is certain to win.

Race to Watch: A foreseeable but as-yet unrealized development has the chance to make an otherwise "Safe" race potentially competitive (such as an incumbent retirement), or an incumbent faces a potentially competitive primary.

Likely: One party has a strong advantage and is likely to win, though the race has the potential to become more competitive.

Lean: One party has an identifiable advantage, but an upset victory is possible for the other party.

Tossup: Both (or all) parties have a strong (though not necessarily perfectly equal) chance of winning.

Below the fold are brief explanations of our initial ratings, grouped by category of competitiveness and following our chart from left to right and then downward.

Likely D:

Massachusetts — OPEN (D): With Gov. Deval Patrick choosing not to seek a third term, a big pile of Democrats has lined up to replace him. A recent PPP poll showed state Attorney General Martha Coakley in a commanding position to win both the Democratic primary and the general election against likely Republican nominee Charlie Baker, who fell 6 points short in 2010. If Baker couldn't prevail with the wind at his back during a GOP wave year, it seems unlikely he'll do better in 2014 in solidly blue Massachusetts, regardless of whom the Democrats nominate.

Maryland — OPEN (D): The race to fill term-limited Gov. Martin O'Malley's seat almost certainly won't be competitive, so we're just slotting this contest in at Likely D because it's our habit to do so with open seat races when we're more than a year out from Election Day. Democrats have a serious primary on their hands, though, between Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown (O'Malley's choice as successor), state Attorney General Doug Gansler, and state Delegate Heather Mizeur.

Minnesota — Mark Dayton (D): Despite one of the narrowest—and luckiest—victories of 2010, Dayton is well-positioned to earn a second term. Polls have shown him popular, and he probably benefited from the contrast with the extremist Republican legislature that voters ushered in in 2010 and quickly booted out in 2012. Several Republicans have jumped into the primary, but they're all B-listers.

New Hampshire — Maggie Hassan (D): Hassan (like her next-door neighbor, Peter Shumlin in Vermont) is already up for re-election next year; she won her first term last year by a surprisingly large 12 point margin. That impressive victory seems to have thrown New Hampshire Republicans into disarray, and they don't have a single candidate running.

Oregon — John Kitzhaber (D): Kitzhaber is another Democrat whom fortune favored with a tight win in 2010. He hasn't announced 2014 plans yet, but signs point to another run. Republicans have come up all but empty on the recruitment front this time, though the race could become more competitive if Kitz were to retire.

Rhode Island — OPEN (D): The biggest news in the Rhode Island gubernatorial race came earlier this year, when independent Gov. Lincoln Chafee, who'd once been a Republican, announced he would join the Democratic Party. That eliminated the possibility of a three-way race that could potentially hand Republicans a plurality victory. Chafee, one of the most unpopular governors in the nation, ultimately decided not to seek re-election. That leaves Providence Mayor Angel Taveras and state Treasurer Gina Raimondo to battle it out in the Democratic primary, though neither has formally launched a campaign.

Lean D:

Colorado — John Hickenlooper (D): Earlier this year, Colorado Republicans were reluctant to openly criticize Hickenlooper, who was riding high in the polls thanks to his post-partisan style. But things have since changed. Democrats re-took the legislature last year, and Republicans have done an effective job portraying the new laws that have been passed (and signed by the governor) as examples of liberal over-reach. Hickenlooper has also earned a great deal of criticism for granting an indefinite stay to a death row inmate earlier this year.

Hick is lucky, though, that Republicans are set to have a very divisive primary, with Secretary of State Scott Gessler, the establishment choice, battling it out with anti-immigrant zealot Tom Tancredo. Democrats have also out-organized the GOP in Colorado over the last decade, and the state is trending blue. This one could wind up being very competitive, though.

Connecticut — Dan Malloy (D): Malloy, yet another 2010 squeaker winner, inherited serious budget problems when he came into office, and he chose to resolve them by relying largely on tax hikes rather than spending cuts. That difficult choice has hurt him in the polls, though Connecticut's clear Democratic lean provides a buffer. Malloy hasn't actually declared for a second term, but if he does, he could face a rematch with wealthy former Ambassador Tom Foley. A number of other Republicans are running or considering bids, though, so we may see the primary yield a different nominee.

Illinois — Pat Quinn (D): "Ugh" is the only way to sum up the Democratic position in Illinois. In a state this blue, Republicans shouldn't even have a chance, but they do, thanks to Quinn's unpopularity. Quinn not only barely won the general last time, but he narrowly scraped his way out of the primary, too, after inheriting this seat from impeached former Gov. Rod Blagojevich. This time, it looked like Quinn wouldn't survive a primary, but somehow, his top challengers all dropped out. That's made him the de facto nominee once again.

Quinn's suffered both thanks to legislation he has pushed through (most prominently an income tax hike) as well as legislation he's failed to advance (namely, public pension reform), leading to "Quinn fatigue" in a state not known for loving its governors. Republicans sense an opportunity in this, and four serious contenders have entered the fray. If Democrats are lucky, the GOP will once again nominate a damaged candidate, as they did in 2010. We haven't seen much reliable polling, though, and "Lean D" may in fact be generous toward Quinn.

Maine — Paul LePage (R): If the deeply disliked LePage manages to serve another term, it'll only happen because independent attorney Eliot Cutler once again splits the left-leaning vote. But Maine Democrats have grown wise to Cutler, and they've recruited their strongest possible candidate, Rep. Mike Michaud. Recent polls have shown Michaud in the lead, even in a three-way race, with Cutler fading to third place. If this were a two-way between Michaud and LePage, it wouldn't even be a contest. LePage has been cagey about whether he'll even seek a second term, and a retirement can't be ruled out.

Pennsylvania — Tom Corbett (R): If there's one incumbent governor who's close to being a dead man walking, it's Corbett, who still hasn't formally declared whether he'll run again. Thanks to his massive cuts to education funding and his mishandling of the Penn State sexual abuse scandal, Corbett's found himself in disastrous shape in the polls and already far behind his potential opponents. So tempting is this pickup opportunity that several prominent Democrats have entered the primary, which Corbett can only hope turns bloody. The frontrunner is Rep. Allyson Schwartz.

Virginia — OPEN (R): Former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe may not be the most inspiring nominee, but he can thank Republican state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli for turning off independents and frightening Democrats into action. McAuliffe's outraised Cuccinelli by a wide margin, and his attacks portraying Cuccinelli as an unethical extremist have landed with much greater punch than the somewhat inscrutable GOP criticisms of McAuliffe's business dealings.

An unbroken string of polls has shown McAuliffe with leads in the mid-to-high single digits, and with little time ahead of this November's election, Republicans appear to be panicking. Democratic turnout in off years is typically disappointing, so this race is by no means a lock. But what had been a tossup for most of the year has now turned into a small but real advantage for McAuliffe.

Tossup:

Arkansas — OPEN (D): With Gov. Mike Beebe forced out by term limits, Arkansas poses the most difficult defensive hold for Democrats this cycle, given the state's rapid red trend at both the local and federal level. Republicans have coalesced around ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson, who got hammered by Beebe when this seat was last open in 2006. Democrats, however, did well on the recruiting front, luring a former congressman of their own back into the game, Mike Ross. Ross's conservative Blue Dog credentials suit him well for this race, and he gives his party their best chance to keep this seat.

Florida — Rick Scott (R): The narrowest Republican gubernatorial victory of 2010 belongs to Scott, whose personal negatives nearly counteracted that year's huge GOP advantage. Democrats are hopeful that party-switching ex-Gov. Charlie Crist will try to unseat the man who replaced him, and polls have shown him manhandling Scott, including a recent one from PPP that had him up a dozen. But Scott has extraordinary personal wealth while Crist has considerable negatives of his own, and turnout in this diverse state will be a real worry for Democrats. If we were judging by early polling alone, this race might be Lean D, but Crist still hasn't signed up to run and after him the bench thins out quickly, so we're staying cautious for now.

Michigan — Rick Snyder (R): While Snyder campaigned as a business-oriented moderate, he took a harshly conservative turn during last year's lame duck session of the legislature and signed a so-called "right to work" law that severely undermined the ability of workers to organize labor unions. That immediately tanked his approval ratings, and polls have generally shown him in weak shape against his likely Democratic opponent, ex-Rep. Mark Schauer, though Snyder's numbers have since recovered somewhat. Snyder still hasn't made up his mind about seeking a second term, though he's currently running ads to fluff his accomplishments.

Lean R:

Arizona — OPEN (R): Arizona often seems just out of reach for Democrats, and it proved frustrating for the party on the presidential level in 2012, with Mitt Romney performing as well as native son John McCain had four years earlier. But they held the governorship for two terms last decade, and now that Gov. Jan Brewer is departing thanks to term limits, Republicans face a crowded primary to succeed her. Democrats, meanwhile, appear to have united around Fred DuVal, a former chair of the Arizona Board of Regents. Thanks to the difficult demographics, though, DuVal would need a few breaks to pull off an upset here.

Ohio — John Kasich (R): Despite a rocky start to his tenure, Kasich has recovered better than some other Rust Belt Republicans first elected in 2010, such as Rick Snyder and Tom Corbett. But what little polling there's been has still shown some softness for the governor, and Democrats have rallied around Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, a young and energetic reformer. But Kasich's incumbency and Ohio's Republican lean, especially in midterm years, will make this a challenging race for Fitz.

South Carolina — Nikki Haley (R): The Palmetto State provided one of the most surprising gubernatorial results in 2010, with Haley beating Democratic state Sen. Vincent Sheheen by just four points—a remarkably small win for a Republican running in a red state in a GOP wave year. Now Sheheen is seeking a rematch, though this time, Haley's in the position of incumbent. She's also further removed from her associations with Mark Sanford, who was her political mentor and has, in any event, at least partly rehabilitated his image with his return to Congress earlier this year. But Haley's feuded with legislators in her own party, and her weak performance three years ago should give Republicans pause.

Likely R:

Alaska — Sean Parnell (R): Democratic chances of a pickup in Alaska are remote, but they're somewhat greater than zero thanks to former Valdez Mayor Bill Walker, a Republican who took a third of the vote in the GOP gubernatorial primary in 2010 but decided to run as an independent this cycle due to his anger over a bill cutting taxes for oil companies. A similar right-wing split allowed Democrat Tony Knowles to win a narrow plurality in 1994. We'll keep an eye on this race, just in case Walker should somehow peel enough votes away from Parnell, and Democrats should manage to run a sufficiently strong campaign. (Former Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation executive director Byron Mallot is the only declared candidate so far.)

Iowa — Terry Branstad (R): Swingish Iowa is poised to split its vote next year, with Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley favored for the open Senate seat and Branstad likely to win re-election to an astounding sixth term as governor (though he took a long break between the fourth and fifth). Branstad hasn't formally declared his intentions yet, but he's given strong indications he'll try to extend his record-setting tenure. Two Democrats are currently battling it out in the primary, state Rep. Tyler Olson and state Sen. Jack Hatch; if the party's nominee winds up having a shot, it'll come by exploiting Branstad fatigue. But Branstad, who isn't a firebreather, remains popular despite Iowa's light blue tilt and will be hard to dislodge.

Kansas — Sam Brownback (R): Kansas is another distant longshot for Democrats, but Brownback, an exemplar of the state Republican Party's arch-conservative wing, came into office unpopular and remains that way. Democrats have landed a credible candidate in state House Minority Leader Paul Davis, and many moderate Republicans remain incensed at last year's successful purge by conservatives, with some openly helping Davis. A Davis win would be an upset for the ages, but Brownback's poor standing means it can't be ruled out.

Nebraska — OPEN (R): Nebraska's gubernatorial contest (an open one, thanks to Gov. Dave Heineman getting termed out) is probably the Republican equivalent of Maryland on our race ratings chart. Democrats actually have a couple of decent candidates running here, and Republicans have a multi-way primary that's likely to open up some deep wounds, but the state's demographics are all but certain to keep this one in the red column. We include the seat here out of an abundance of caution.

New Mexico — Susana Martinez (R): Martinez had the good fortune to run in 2010, winning a big victory when the governor's mansion became open. Since then, she's successfully cultivated a moderate profile, and a Democratic-controlled legislature has largely kept her from doing anything that might undermine that image—important, in light blue New Mexico. Martinez has yet to declare her re-election plans, while two Democrats have announced bids and several more are still considering. But Martinez has given no indication she won't run again, and this race is not likely to offer a compelling opportunity to her opponents.

Nevada — Brian Sandoval (R): Sandoval's situation shares many similarities with Martinez's: a Hispanic Republican, elected to an open seat in the Southwest in 2010, kept in line by a Democratic legislature and largely popular as a result. Sandoval, however, has taken a hit over an ugly scandal in which Nevada mental hospitals gave ill patients one-way Greyhound tickets to California, in an attempt to dump the most vulnerable wards of the state on their neighbor. But it hasn't been enough to induce any Democrats to run, and only Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak is looking at a bid.

Texas — OPEN (R): Explosive growth in Texas' Hispanic population means that one day, the state will be competitive for Democrats, but that day is still a ways off. Texas is still very red, and most white voters remain staunchly Republican. That demographic edge gives state Attorney General Greg Abbott, the GOP frontrunner, a big built-in advantage over his likely Democratic opponent, state Sen. Wendy Davis, who electrified progressives with her nationally famous filibuster of an anti-abortion bill in the legislature earlier this year.

Davis is almost certainly the strongest candidate Democrats could put forth, but the math for her is difficult. Abbott already has over $20 million in the bank, and he hasn't worn out his welcome with Texans, unlike incumbent Gov. Rick Perry, who decided not to seek a fourth term. Tea partier Debra Medina, who took almost a fifth of the vote in the 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary, recently said she might run again as an independent, which could split the right-leaning vote and allow Davis to slip through. But without outside intervention—whether a Medina third-party bid or an Abbott implosion—Davis' task, while not impossible, will nevertheless be exceedingly difficult.

Wisconsin — Scott Walker (R): Progressives' failed attempt last year to recall Walker seems to have scared off nearly all potential challengers in next year's regularly scheduled election. It's not that Walker is especially well-liked, but Wisconsin is a very evenly split state, and Walker maintains just enough support to appear daunting. He has ready access to massive sums of money, and he inspires a great deal of passion among his conservative supporters. Democrats are hoping that Madison school board member Mary Burke will run, and that she'll use her considerable personal wealth to even the playing field. But Walker's already polling close to the 50 percent mark, making him a tough target in a midterm year.

Races to Watch:

California — Jerry Brown (D): Like many of the other governors listed here, Brown hasn't yet announced his plans for 2014. Unlike nearly all the rest, though, there's at least some reason to think Brown might not seek re-election, given his age (75). If Brown declines to run, an intense fight to succeed him among Democrats will likely ensue. But Republicans don't stand a chance regardless of whom they face.

Safe D:

New York — Andrew Cuomo (D): Cuomo managed to win in a landslide in 2010, despite the intense GOP wave that hurt New York Democrats further downballot, and despite a wealthy opponent who self-funded lavishly. Republicans don't have anyone capable of making this race competitive, or even a warm body. Cuomo hasn't officially declared for a second term, but there's no doubt he'll seek one.

Hawaii — Neil Abercrombie (D): Abercrombie's biggest threat was a primary challenge from Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, but she opted to run for Senate instead. State Sen. David Ige did wind up jumping in to the Democratic contest, but he has a minimal profile and little money. There are currently no Republicans running.

Vermont — Peter Shumlin (D): Vermont governors have to seek re-election biennially, so Shumlin already has two victories to his credit, his most recent by 20 points. Though Republicans held this seat for eight years before Shumlin became governor, they're only likely to be competitive if a strong third-party challenge from the state's Progressive Party splits the left-leaning vote. That hasn't materialized, though Shumlin has not formally announced his re-election plans yet.

Safe R:

Alabama — Robert Bentley (R): There may be no state Democratic Party in worse shape than Alabama's. While it's possible that Bentley, who has always been viewed with suspicion by the GOP establishment, could lose a primary challenge (if a serious one were to materialize), Republicans have a lock on this seat no matter whom they nominate.

Georgia — Nathan Deal (R): Georgia Democrats are heavily focused on the state's open seat Senate and thus Deal has largely gotten a pass. He hasn't announced plans to seek a second term yet, though it would be surprising if he opted out. Former state Sen. Connie Stokes is running for the Democrats; one day soon, the party will be in a position to compete for this seat, but not this cycle.

Idaho — Butch Otter (R): When Rep. Raul Labrador declined to run in the GOP primary earlier this year, Otter avoided his most serious potential challenger. However, he still hasn't decided whether to seek a third term, though signs point to another run. Should he decline, Lt. Gov. Brad Little would likely have the inside track. Democrats have no shot here.

New Jersey — Chris Christie (R): As political hypotheticals go, the 2013 New Jersey governor's race offers some juicy ones. What if Hurricane Sandy hadn't struck the state? What if Christie had botched the response? In either scenario, we might have a competitive race right now. But it did, and he didn't, and Christie's job approval ratings have remained stubbornly high almost a year later. Democratic state Sen. Barbara Buono trails by anywhere from 20 to 30 or more points in all public polling, and her fundraising has understandably lagged as a result. The final score may narrow, but thanks to a remarkable set of circumstances, a Republican governor is a lock to win re-election in blue New Jersey.

Oklahoma — Mary Fallin (R): Fallin, in her first term should cruise to re-election, unless the man she succeeded, former Democratic Gov. Brad Henry, were to seek his old job once again. In a recent interview, Henry called a comeback "unlikely" though he did not rule it out; however, even he would have a very hard time beating Fallin.

South Dakota — Dennis Daugaard (R): I just checked our tags: We haven't written about this seat since 2010, and it's not hard to see why. Daugaard won his first term in a blowout three years ago, and Democrats don't have anyone running against him. He hasn't announced for re-election yet but there's no reason to think he won't.

Tennessee — Bill Haslam (R): Haslam's family's business, the truck stop chain Pilot Flying J, is the target of an ongoing federal inquiry over fraud allegations that has already seen several employees plead guilty. But Haslam, a former president of the company, hasn't been directly implicated, and it's unlikely that the investigation will harm his re-election chances in heavily Republican Tennessee, especially since no Democratic challengers have emerged.

Wyoming — Matt Mead (R): Mead hasn't formally declared for a second term but likely will. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Cindy Hill has said she intends to primary Mead, who effectively removed her from her responsibilities after widespread allegations of bizarre behavior on Hill's part. Neither she nor Democrats will pose an obstacle to Mead's re-election.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:59 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  At least Illinois' Quinn is not in jail... (12+ / 0-)

    • Illinois — Pat Quinn (D): "Ugh" is the only way to sum up the Democratic position in Illinois.
    Aren't most of Illinois former govs in prison ???

    Nuclear Reactor = Dirty Bomb

    by olo on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:08:47 AM PDT

    •  Give him time. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IM

      Two IL Governors are in prison and a third served his time. The other two living ex-Governors were just as crooked.

      I agree with the comment that rating this as "lean Democratic" is probably generous. This would be a safe seat if Democrats nominated someone else. It's going to look like 2006 when Democrats re-elected Blagojevich because he had no strong primary challenger. Daley was right that nominating Quinn probably puts the state in Republican hands.

      •  Quinn is honest. But that's all you can say. (9+ / 0-)

        Dude may be the weakest governor I've seen in my lifetime. That may not be his fault entirely: House Speaker Michael Madigan has the state Democratic Party (and, by extension, all of Springfield) in a chokehold. There's no fixing Illinois without fixing the Illinois Democratic Party, and there's no fixing the Illinois Democratic Party without exiling Madigan to Sainte-Hélène. (There's also no fixing the Illinois budget without fixing the Illinois pension crisis, and there's no fixing the Illinois pension crisis without amending the state constitution, which mandates a flat personal income tax.) But Quinn doesn't help himself, or Democrats, or the state, by waffling when he's in a position to act and talking tough when he's not.

        "The great lie of democracy, its essential paradox, is that democracy is the first to be sacrificed when its security is at risk. Every state is totalitarian at heart; there are no ends to the cruelty it will go to to protect itself." -- Ian McDonald

        by Geenius at Wrok on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:22:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He betrayed himself. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NoMoreLies, DownstateDemocrat

          He spent his career presenting himself as a champion of working people and the environment. He has spent his time as Governor attacking both. Progressives should reconsider whether Quinn was just a panderer all along who never had to deliver because he hasn't been in power before. He has himself to blame for his decisions, like failing to push for a progressive income tax ballot measure and balancing the budget on the back of social services and public pensions.
          The only popular thing he has done is stop legislative salaries and that was nothing but a publicity stunt.

          I agree with you about Madigan, but the problems with the conservative party establishment go deeper than him.

        •  As a Republican from Illinois... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Geenius at Wrok, Stephen Schmitz

          I agree with a lot of what you said. Quinn is a decidedly honest but extremely weak leader, Mike Madigan needs to go for anything to get done in the state, and pensions need to be reformed. Democratic State Representatives go home to their districts and complain about Mike Madigan (I sure as hell know Daniel Biss has done it before), but he has everyone in a chokehold. Ugh.

          From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

          by IllinoyedR on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:12:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Not really, because the GOP bench sucks here (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, IM, JGibson, askew, MichaelNY

        As unimpressive as Quinn is (his greatest claim to fame is that he'll break the embarrassing streak of Illinois governors who get indicted or end up in jail), his challengers are even weaker. Dillard is the only one I'd worry about, but since he's a moderate, there's no chance he'd get the nomination. The GOP could have won with him in 2010, but they nominated that teabagger dunce Brady instead.

        No, Quinn will be reelected, if by a much lower margin than a Democrat in Illinois should be. In the end, it doesn't really matter, as Mike Madigan is de-facto overlord of the entire state.

        •  That's what we're left with. (0+ / 0-)

          We have to cross our fingers and hope that Republicans nominate a bad candidate, or that if Brady wins that he doesn't build more support in the suburbs this time. That's a risky position to be in.

          Quinn is going to lose a large number of votes downstate compared to his last election. Is he really popular enough to significantly add to his margin of victory in the suburbs or Chicago? Where are his new extra votes coming from?

          Rutherford is worth worrying about and either him or Dillard could win the nomination.

        •  Which in turn points to the solution, (0+ / 0-)

          at least from Gov. Quinn's perspective. He needs to start taking it tough with the Legislature, but particularly Speaker Madigan.

          Veto bills. Veto more bills. Make it clear that item #1 on the agenda is the pension-fund crisis, and keep vetoing bills until the Lege advances something halfway sane to deal with it.

          "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

          by Australian2 on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 04:15:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  About Pat Quinn (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gf120581, Judge Moonbox, Australian2

        He's too honest to try to break the law, and too incompetent to succeed in breaking the law.

    •  This gives me flashbacks of Blago... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Willinois, MichaelNY

      ...when he was running for re-election he was unpopular.  People were amazed he wasn't primaried.  And then slides back in due to weak Republican opposition.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 01:37:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Quinn 2010 (0+ / 0-)

      In 2010, Quinn lost 98 of the 102 counties in Illinois, winning only Cook (Chicago), St. Clair (East St. Louis), Jackson (Carbondale) and Alexander (Cairo).

      Map (colors reversed):

      http://uselectionatlas.org/...

      Quinn won Cook County by 500,000 votes, and won statewide by 32,000.

      •  And? (0+ / 0-)

        Quinn hadn't reached his basement in downstate last time. He could be coming out of downstate with 100,000 fewer votes than last time. Many Democrats who supported him won't this time. Can he make that up in Chicago?

        What if Dillard or Rutherford are the nominee and do better in the suburbs than Brady?
        Can Quinn realistically get 200,000 more votes out of Cook county than he had last time? He'll need to.

  •  I'm going with Brown in Maryland (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    He has some experience as Lt. Goveror with O'Malley. But if Gansler won I wouldn't be upset.

    Still at least no Republican will get in here. There are none. Not of any reputation unless Ehrlich tries again (lol).

    Although a soldier by profession, I have never felt any sort of fondness for war, and I have never advocated it, except as a means of peace. ~ Ulysses S Grant

    by vcmvo2 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:13:16 AM PDT

    •  You're ditching Mizeur for lack of experience? (0+ / 0-)

      Or because you don't think she has the big bucks of the more conservative machine Dems?

      I tried to go online to find a similar bear head...but when I searched “Big Bear Head” it gave me a San Diego craigslist ad entitled “Big Bear needs some quick head now” and then I just decided to never go on the internet again.--Jenny Lawson

      by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:57:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Don't know that much about her (0+ / 0-)

        if anything. I know Gansler and I know Brown, right now however I am dealing with a critical illness in a family member and have been around her only infrequently.

        I don't know enough about her, not dismissing her at all.

        Although a soldier by profession, I have never felt any sort of fondness for war, and I have never advocated it, except as a means of peace. ~ Ulysses S Grant

        by vcmvo2 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:28:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, OK. Well, she's done some serious work (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, vcmvo2

          with people in Western MD against fracking, working with landowners out there that don't like the way they've been treated by the oil companies. She's also (obviously) great on LGBT issues and women's issues. She's good on voting rights too.

          I tried to go online to find a similar bear head...but when I searched “Big Bear Head” it gave me a San Diego craigslist ad entitled “Big Bear needs some quick head now” and then I just decided to never go on the internet again.--Jenny Lawson

          by SouthernLiberalinMD on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 12:59:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'll check her out! (0+ / 0-)

            Thanks!

            Although a soldier by profession, I have never felt any sort of fondness for war, and I have never advocated it, except as a means of peace. ~ Ulysses S Grant

            by vcmvo2 on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 02:55:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sure thing! :-) n/t (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              vcmvo2

              I tried to go online to find a similar bear head...but when I searched “Big Bear Head” it gave me a San Diego craigslist ad entitled “Big Bear needs some quick head now” and then I just decided to never go on the internet again.--Jenny Lawson

              by SouthernLiberalinMD on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 07:24:18 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Wow! (0+ / 0-)

                She is really cool! I guess that's what I get for not watching TV, I had no idea who she was. I'm up in the badlands of Carroll County so I just was unaware of her.

                She is wonderful! I am going to work for her campaign! I am so impressed! Thank you for pointing her out!

                Yes! We do need women in the Free State!

                Although a soldier by profession, I have never felt any sort of fondness for war, and I have never advocated it, except as a means of peace. ~ Ulysses S Grant

                by vcmvo2 on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 07:43:22 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Gansler lost my vote, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vcmvo2, MichaelNY

      Still undecided between Brown and Mizeur.

      Gansler's stance on taxes tells me that he's more interested in being taken as a Very Serious Person in Washington than he is in doing right by Maryland.

      Freedom's just another word for not enough to eat. --Paul Krugman's characterization of conservative attitudes.

      by Judge Moonbox on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 06:31:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I was hoping Davis would run for Senate (8+ / 0-)

    and challenge Cornyn. That would have been a better application of her firepower in my view. Winning the Governor's office in Texas is going to be a long shot to say the least.

    She's going to have to count on Abbot making some major mistakes.

    •  May the spirits of Molly Ivins (10+ / 0-)

      and Ann Richards (and Barbara Jordan, and what other Texas women am I leaving out here?) propel her along.

    •  Wouldn't she have a better shot at a state race (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lawrence, R30A, MichaelNY

      than a national one?  Not sure how big the South is on the state/federal divide still (probably not by much), but it would probably still help her out to fight a state race.  Plus Cornyn isn't very controversial relative to Texas' Junior Senator, so it would be hard to necessarily get the moderates on board with that, especially since Texas moderates probably lean a little right and this isn't an open seat race.

    •  I think it is easier (5+ / 0-)

      for people to beat the partisan lean of their states in governor races rather than senate races.  Democrats were able to elect governors in Wyoming, Arizona, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Kentucky in recent years, even though those states have not elected a Dem senator in a long time.  On the other side, Republicans have been successful at getting GOP governors in Hawaii, California, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New York, and New Jersey in recent years, but the only GOP Senators from any of those states were Linc Chafee and Scott Brown, both defeated for re-election.

    •  A Senate race wouldn't drive turnout (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      Only way Davis can win is by turning out non-voters. What does a non-voter get out of sending Davis to the Senate? Things won't change to any great degree.

      Davis as Gov vs Abbott as Gov? Big difference.

      Disclaimer: If the above comment can possibly be construed as snark, it probably is.

      by grubber on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:00:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Davis needs a strong GOTV effort to win in Texas (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Judge Moonbox, MichaelNY, duhban

      Texas is one of those states with a low voter turnout which is under 50%.  Obama lost Texas by 1.2 million votes.  Meanwhile there were 4 million Hispanics who were eligible to vote but didn't show up.  What Texas needs to turn blue is a strong grassroots effort to make sure every eligible Democrat is registered to vote and shows up at the voting booth.

      Right now Hispanics make up 40% of the population of Texas and are projected to be 50% by 2020.  Since 71% of Hispanics voted for President Obama it is easy to see why Texas could turn blue.  Even now it is quite possible for Davis to win if people turn out to vote for her.

      •  Population vs Voting Population (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        IM, MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

        It's worth noting that whilst Hispanics make up roughly 40% of Texas' population, they only made up 26% of eligible voters in 2012. This is partly because a significant number of Hispanics are illegal immigrants, but also because a third of Hispanics are currently under the age of 18.

        In 2012 IIRC, Hispanics were only 22% of the Texan electorate. Realistically, Davis won't get a much more favourable electorate in 2014, because of the drop in minority voting during non-presidential years. At best, she gets a 26% Hispanic electorate, should they turn out in the same numbers as white non-hispanics (very unlikely).

        However the silver lining is that if Davis wins 70-30 amongst Hispanics, with a 26% Hispanic electorate, (90-10 amongst AA, 70-30 amongst 'others') this means that she only needs 30% of the white vote to win.  Bill White got 29% of the white vote and Ann Richards got 43% in '90 and 31% in '94.

        •  44% of Latinos in Texas are eligible to vote (0+ / 0-)

          According to the Chamber of Commerce, NPR and other sources there are about 4 million eligible Hispanic voters in Texas.  The problem is that many of them did not turn out to vote.  If they did, Texas would be blue.  Note that Obama only lost by 1.2 million votes in Texas.  If the Hispanic voters turned out he could have won in Texas.

          Another factor to consider is white immigration into Texas from Northern states. It is quite possible that many of those people could very well be Democrats.

          This also explains why the Texas republicans have wasted no time in gerrymandering districts to favor republicans and instituted restrictive voter ID laws to suppress the vote.

          •  It cant be assumed that all 4 million will vote... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MrLiberal, MichaelNY

            Whilst it would be true that Obama would have won Texas if 100% of all registered Texan Hispanics voted, that is a rather meaningless statistic, since we never see that level of turnout in the US.

            Even if Hispanic turnout in Texas matched White turnout (60.9%) in Texas 2012, Obama would still have lost by 5.5 points. Considering that Hispanics in Nevada only had a turnout of around 54%, despite huge GOTV efforts, an Obama victory in Texas was never really plausible.

        •  Legal aliens too. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          Even among Hispanics who do have a green card, there are many who haven't had them for the requisite length of time.

          Among those who have been here long enough under a status where they can become citizens, some prefer to remain citizens of their homelands.

          Of course, there is hope for improvement in that some may need the nudge of being asked for their vote to decide to take the oath of citizenship.

          Freedom's just another word for not enough to eat. --Paul Krugman's characterization of conservative attitudes.

          by Judge Moonbox on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 06:47:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  How would it change things if Julian Castro (0+ / 0-)

        ran for Lt. Governor? That might induce more Hispanics to vote.

  •  Last poll in Ohio (15+ / 0-)

    from PPP had FitzGerald up by three. Seeing how the state screwed their citizens in the healthcare exchange and medicaid department, I think this is at least closer to a toss up.

    “We can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the other possibilities.” - Winston Chuchill

    by se portland on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:15:05 AM PDT

    •  Previous polls showed Kasich much stronger (4+ / 0-)

      I would like to see confirmation from other polls before buying that Fitzgerald has surged that much.  I do think this race is likely to be competitive next year though.

      •  ONE previous poll showed Kasich much stronger (0+ / 0-)

        So that was probably an outlier — especially since it was taken before the assaults on women, taxpayers, schools and local governments in his LATEST budget.

        FitzGerald hasn't gone anywhere because he's unknown as of yet. But Kasich is headed down. And his buddies in the lege are throwing him an anchor.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 04:15:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  As for Christie, while certain to win, (9+ / 0-)

    if margin comes in under single digits because of the GOP shutdown, he's going to have a tougher argument to make to GOP stalwarts that he's a steamroller.

  •  I'd put FL-GOV at lean D, but understand (10+ / 0-)

    why you didnt.

    I dont worry about Crist not running. My guess is he is running, but figures there isnt really any advantage to announcing so early. He is already well known and popular, so why allow more time for Scott to go after him?

    My bigger worry here is that Alex Sink gets in and starts a nasty primary with Crist, who she clearly doesnt like.

  •  We have elected Democratic Party leaders (10+ / 0-)

    ... in NM who actively (if slightly clandestinely) campaigned for Martinez. There's some bunch of the electorate that will vote for any Hispanic name, which is to be expected, I suppose. But it's a damned shame that some of the people who control local/county office in the Party are nowhere to be seen supporting the Party's nominees. Damned shame.

    Mark Twain: It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

    by Land of Enchantment on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:22:22 AM PDT

    •  THIS! (6+ / 0-)

      Everything you just said!  You are so right!  It is a damned shame!

      Meanwhile, the Koch Bros. are going after Sen. Tom Udall.  We have to support his campaign to keep his seat.  I don't take anything for granted, he should be a shoe-in for another term, but the $$$$ is coming out against him.  

      I would rather spend my life searching for truth than live a single day within the comfort of a lie. ~ John Victor Ramses

      by KayCeSF on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:36:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  we haven't seen polling of this race in a long (3+ / 0-)

      time, have we? I don't think so. I think we shouldn't categorize it without seeing some numbers.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:38:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In my time "gophering" DLC events... (5+ / 0-)

      ...I eventually came to realize that our "leaders" really didn't like us very much.

      They were eager to trade "ugly" support from Urban voters and Labor families for what they thought was a "more attractive" and presumably dependable slice of the so-called "Swing voters." Of course the Media Consultants strongly advised them as to which voters were "attractive",  "growing exponentially", and  - surprise - just happened to be the ones they could most effectively "move" in advertising and push polling.

      How convenient.

      Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:42:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is not unique to America. (0+ / 0-)

        It's happening worldwide - as the Right grows ever more unhinged and devoted to the most far-right elements of its base, the "Left" increasingly ignores its traditional base, trading it for the empty promises of "hip" voters.

        Which may explain why the ALP's vote sank to 33% in the recent election in my homeland. Yet still, they focus upon how to better appeal to the yuppies and the hipster-types in the leafy suburbs and endeavour to further insult the values that made them a national party of government.

        It makes me wonder: why do we bother? When will the movers and shakers finally realise that they can only spit upon their party's values for so long before "their" voters get tired of it?

        "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

        by Australian2 on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 05:53:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Who's doing this, and why? (0+ / 0-)

      Names and positions would be great. It sounds like New Jersey, where there are Democrats who  - openly - endorsed Christie, and I think there, it's mostly because they know he's gonna win and want to be on his good side. Perhaps the same dynamics are at play in NM.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:41:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not in 2010, they weren't (0+ / 0-)

        The names won't mean anything to you. In NM, it's fairly obvious who's doing it. But they include some vindictive people who relish hurting people who get in their way. This is not exaggeration.

        Mark Twain: It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

        by Land of Enchantment on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:54:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Get Alaska out of there. (0+ / 0-)

    We are not accepting Parnell for another round.
    :)

  •  Something is not working (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    scamperdo

    your first graphic chart isn't showing up, at least I'm not seeing it. I'm seeing a big empty space where it's supposed to be.

    "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

    by Alice in Florida on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:44:10 AM PDT

  •  Branstad could be hurt because of the ACA. (6+ / 0-)

    People without insurance or through Iowa's program have to drive to Iowa City for treatment.  If you don't have insurance... how can you really afford to drive a long ways for treatment...whether you have to take off from a low paying job or you are out of work right now?

  •  Slightly OT but - check this out... (4+ / 0-)
    GOP In Grave Danger Of Losing House In 2014, PPP Polls Show

    For Democrats to win a House majority, 17 seats would need to switch to their party's favor. Results show that would be within reach, as Republican incumbents are behind in 17 of the districts analyzed: CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, IL-13, KY-06, MI-01, MI-07, MI-11, NY-19, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, WI-07.

    Nuclear Reactor = Dirty Bomb

    by olo on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:50:00 AM PDT

  •  Malloy will probably still prevail because of the (5+ / 0-)

    fine line he has trod with unions, but idiotic stunts like crashing Rick Perry's lunch in Hartford with CT gun manufacturers will not help him with a moderate GOP crowd that still exists in CT. Foley is simply a dolt, relying on some tired GOP talking points like voter fraud from the last election

    • Connecticut — Dan Malloy (D): Malloy, yet another 2010 squeaker winner, inherited serious budget problems when he came into office, and he chose to resolve them by relying largely on tax hikes rather than spending cuts. That difficult choice has hurt him in the polls, though Connecticut's clear Democratic lean provides a buffer. Malloy hasn't actually declared for a second term, but if he does, he could face a rematch with wealthy former Ambassador Tom Foley. A number of other Republicans are running or considering bids, though, so we may see the primary yield a different nominee.

    Warning - some snark may be above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ eState4Column5©2013 "I’m not the strapping young Muslim socialist that I used to be" - Barack Obama 04/27/2013

    by annieli on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:53:56 AM PDT

  •  Quinn is governing like Scott Walker. (5+ / 0-)

    Major cuts and closures of state facilities that provide good jobs and important social services. Tax breaks to big corporations while he attacks public pensions. Pointless fights with public employee unions. He brags about launching the fracking boom.

    If Quinn were Republican this site would be calling him the new Scott Walker. He's loathed in most of downstate (where government is the top employer) and I seriously doubt he's popular enough in Chicago to make up the difference there.

    Everyone should be desperately recruiting a serious candidate to enter the primary.

  •  A bit OT, but PPP polls House. R's in Trouble. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    libertyjusticemercy, askew
    GOP In Grave Danger Of Losing House In 2014, PPP Polls Show

    For Democrats to win a House majority, 17 seats would need to switch to their party's favor. Results show that would be within reach, as Republican incumbents are behind in 17 of the districts analyzed: CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, IL-13, KY-06, MI-01, MI-07, MI-11, NY-19, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, WI-07.

    Nuclear Reactor = Dirty Bomb

    by olo on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:57:18 AM PDT

  •  I'd move OR to Safe D (10+ / 0-)

    For one thing, the Republican brand here is discredited state-wide. Last cycle the local media bemoaned that, by their judgment, a moderate Republican still couldn't get elected to a state-wide position. And even in Oregon, with its tradition of Progressive Republicans (Tom McCall, Mark Hatfield), there as few moderate Republicans here as in, say, Kansas. The few who were have long ago either gone independent or Democratic. It would take a big scandal on the Democratic side, & there's been no hint of that; Neil Goldschmidt's sex scandal came from left field, & he kept it out of the news until long after he was out of politics.

    Second, despite what he says I expect Kitzhaber to run again. He doesn't talk openly about his plans for re-election; I don't see any reason he wouldn't run for a fourth term. When he declared Oregon "ungovernable" at the end of his second term, it was due to Republican blind obstructionism (sound familiar?); this time around, he's been able to make positive changes & seems to be having a good time. He may not be one of Oregon's best governors, but he's definitely in the top 25% of them.

    I might be too optimistic in this evaluation, but I'm honestly trying hard to conceive of a scenario where the Dems here are crippled badly enough, & the GOP is strong enough to take any state-wide elected office, let alone the governorship. And short of something out of the Twilight Zone (a Progressive Republican survives the primaries to take on a scandal-ridden Democrat who somehow was overlooked by the entire media establishment), I can't think of one.

    •  no, you're right (7+ / 0-)

      he's staffing up and raised tens of thousands of dollars last month. I haven't heard any real rumors that he wasn't going to run for re-election since early 2011 at the latest.

      His only opponents so far are a liberal Republican rancher from Sherman County who no one has ever heard of and is financing his own campaign, and a far-right wing state representative from Southern Oregon. The latter is our likely opponent, and he's way too conservative to be competitive. He's a Barry Goldwater candidate who may even lose his home county to Kitzhaber.

      Kitzhaber is an extremely strong candidate. He was first elected in 1994, when Oregon was still  swing state and a Republican wave year, and yet easily won over a former congressman. He faced token opposition in 1998 (Bill Sizemore) because nobody else was willing to be steamrolled by him, and Kitzhaber won 35/36 of Oregon's counties in that race. He next won in 2010, again a Republican wave year. He's as close to a titan in the state as they come.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:08:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A lot of progressives in Oregon (0+ / 0-)

        ...including those of us concerned about our growing organic farm industry, are NOT happy with Kitzhaber's "Grand Bargain" capitulation to ALEC, pre-empting local control of GMO laws (not to mention raiding the PERS system to give tax breaks for the rich).
        Check out the sheer volume of negative feedback he's gotten (evidenced by the comments below his recent posts). You can pooh-pooh the commenters as "radical food safety nuts," but these are the same people who are energized come election time... or not, given the choices.

        'I don't want to live in a society that does these sort of things' -Edward Snowden

        by DFH on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 06:12:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not happy about it either (0+ / 0-)

          but I don't think it will change the competitiveness of the election.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 08:12:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Gov. Kitzhaber will run; 'likely win' about right (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IM, llywrch, MichaelNY

      There's no question that Gov. Kitzhaber will run again.  The just-completed special session of the legislature appears to be a big win for him in both substantive and political terms and sets him up nicely for the 2014 campaign.  If anything, he's trying to build a quasi-bipartisan constituency for introducing a state sales tax, something Oregon desperately needs but has been unable to achieve in multiple attempts.  I'm not saying he'll achieve it (the bipartisan constituency or the tax), but that will be his second-term priority (with a number of sub-priorities flowing from it, not least the adequate funding of the state's rapidly deteriorating public schools).

      But I'd avoid the 'safe' label until (a) we see how things play out in Washington (DC) over the coming weeks and months; (b) who the GOP/Tea Party runs against the Governor; and (c) we see whether the same-sex-marriage amendment that's likely to be on the same 2014 ballot churns up the kind of wacko (but nonetheless effective) campaign messaging and turnout that such amendments have generated in Oregon (and other states) before.  'Likely win' yes, 'safe win' still TBD.

      •  off topic (5+ / 0-)

        but Oregon does not need a sales tax. It wouldn't pass if it wasn't coupled with a cut in another tax, so it wouldn't generate more revenue generally, if that is the goal. The notion that it would "balance" the state's revenue stream in economic downturns is bunk, too, as states with sales taxes suffered from budget shortfalls just as much as we did, because consumption fell sharply during the recession.

        The arguments used are without real substance. The real reason suburban politicians and The Oregonian's editorial board support it is because it would shift more of the tax burden on middle and lower income people and off high earners. Oregon already has a basically flat income tax. We don't need a regressive tax system.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:28:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Can't argue with any of that (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, varro, MichaelNY

          It's promoted by all of the "thoughtful people" in the state, & it's rejected overwhelmingly by all the voters in the state -- the best any sales tax measure has gotten, IIRC, is losing by 40-50 points.

          (To your good reasons I'd add one more: Oregon retailers gets a lot of their sales because of people from Washington, Idaho & California -- states with sales taxes -- crossing the state line & buying stuff here. Like groceries, clothes, & other everyday things that lower & middle income people most need to save money on.)

          Tom McCall said it best 40 years ago: the voters have clearly said no, so let's forget about a sales tax & think about something else.

      •  A political win? (0+ / 0-)

        Preventing counties from regulating gmo seed safety? Reducing state employee pensions to give tax breaks to the rich?
        I will never vote for Kitzhaber again, and I know a number of others who feel the same.

        'I don't want to live in a society that does these sort of things' -Edward Snowden

        by DFH on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 06:14:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  One thing I'll stress (6+ / 0-)

      Is that not all races in every category are equally competitive. So yeah, some Likely D races are pretty close to safe, others are a lot closer to Lean D.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:52:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Kansas Dems should point to incompetence of Gov (11+ / 0-)

    I believe Paul Davis in Kansas has a shot if he campaigns right. Brownback needs to be pointed at as the incompetent manager that he is. It is the gears of the state that need oiling. He should hammer Brownback for inefficiency.

    The government in Kansas is failing in education, and every parent knows it. Most do not support the radical right education terrorists who are trying to rewrite EVERY textbook, not just evolution. Hell, our kids are handed 'economic education' pamphlets that are printed by Koch funded groups. Well, yours are too by now, I suppose.  

    As far as the nuts and bolts, nothing is reliable. Being on state administered unemployment and TAA has been an eye-opener. I have seen the state drop the ball numerous times in my situation. I had to pick up a few dropped balls to make sure I received my rights. And I always laugh when I call the unemployment office in Kansas. It tells you to visit getkansasbenefits.com but they mean .gov. This has been pointed out to the customer service people so often you can hear how tired of it they are in their voices. It has been this way for almost a year.

    I hope Paul Davis steals the language of Libertarians. It is a language Kansans understand. Since Dems don't compete for Libertarian voters they will never get the independents. They will always hold nose and vote for Republicans. I think it is easy to explain how Dems are more focused on rights and liberty than Reps are. Why can't the party do that?

    •  I've seen his ads all over Youtube. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:09:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Impressive Rollout (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Davis has had a good rollout as a candidate thus far. He was presented as a credible candidate who might actually be able to win (though it’s still a longshot).

      The main media stories surrounding his entry into the race mentioned that his campaign treasurer is Bill Kassebaum, son of famed GOP moderate Nancy Landon Kassebaum. Bill Kassebaum also served a term in the state legislature before getting primaried by conservatives, which also helps remind moderates that Brownback purged nearly all of their state senators.

      Appropriating some language from libertarians is smart, though I think the "get your wackadoo fundamentalist church out of my government" rhetoric will fly better with moderates—especially the Johnson County suburban moderates—than the straight-up libertarian "get gov’t out of my life" rhetoric.

      Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

      by arealmc on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:24:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Kitz is likely to run again (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM, varro, MichaelNY

    He just pulled off a special session and now is talking about tax reform.  Oregonians have a visceral aversion to a sales tax, but he may be able to use that to eliminate the 'kicker' (the stupidest bit of financial legislation ever conceived and passed in the state.)  

  •  Putting SERIOUS effort behind Davis (Kansas) (8+ / 0-)

    I, like a lot of other Kansans look at the numbers and we know that while this is an uphill fight, do NOT write Kansas off.  There are a lot of hard workers who are going to put a lot of hours in behind Davis.   He's an eloquent, bright, timely politician who comes at the right time, when our state is suffering under a governor that is universally unpopular (latest polling: 36% approve of Brownback).  

    But to out of staters, I'd say: HELP is appreciated.  Dollars go much farther in Kansas.   The governors race here will cost less then a House of Reps race in most states.   The budget fundraising targets are sickeningly low to handle the whole state.

    So, if you've got it, a little bit extra helps

    http://www.davisforkansas.com/

    Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

    by Chris Reeves on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:13:54 AM PDT

    •  Is Brownback still controversial there? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      BTW, Dems got former Republican Sen. Jean Schodorf running on their side for Secretary of State against Kobach.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:02:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Unfortunately for Schodorf (5+ / 0-)

        We already had a friggin SoS candidate, Randy Rolston, who’s rich as hell and was gonna drop $1 million to take down Kobach. I’m kind of annoyed with her right now--why couldn’t Schodorf run for state Treasurer or something? Still, she does have a better profile since she’s a former elected GOP official. So I guess, for once, Kansas Democrats will have an actual primary with 2 credible candidates.

        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

        by arealmc on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:29:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Can't MA Dems find a real candidate? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Newt

    Martha Coakley famously made fun of Scott Brown for standing in the cold rain outside of Fenway shaking hands with Red Sox fans during his 2009 campaign. What if it rains in October of 2014? Will she have to suspend her campaign?

    And what if she has plans for a Halloween getaway? As I recall, in 2009, she went on vacation in late December a few weeks before the special election held in January of 2010.

    There aren't many Democratic candidates that I would unequivocally not support under any circumstances if I were in a position to vote for or against them for any office. Anthony Weiner is one. Martha Coakley is another.

    •  She has learned her lesson (7+ / 0-)

      She has already been out there campaigning, including at Fenway.

      I dont necessarily support her governor, but I'd willing to give her a chance. I dont think she should be punished forever because of 2010.  

      •  Wait till winter ;) (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, fenway49

        Though I have to predict she'll be overcompensate a lot for 2010 in the primary.  She got so much abuse over specific mistakes she'll go out of her way to do the opposite.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:59:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Coakley doesn't deserve to be lumped in (6+ / 0-)

      with Anthony Weiner.  She ran a terrible campaign and Scott Brown caught the perfect storm of events that allowed him to briefly hold that Senate seat.

      By all accounts, Coakley learned from her mistakes that year, and if the polls are to be believed, she is heavily favored to be the nominee over Treasurer Steve Grossman, and heavily favored to beat GOP repeat nominee Charlie Baker.

      •  On the other hand. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Newt, fenway49

        I'll take someone addicted to posting selfies of himself over someone who continued the horror of Fells Acre in the Middlesex DA's office.

        Okay that went too much into policy.  But she was hurt by a reputation of being a coldfish and that does come down from being coldblooded.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 01:41:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Has she ever voiced regret over her decision there (0+ / 0-)

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:00:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Of course not. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Newt, fenway49

            Unless a deal brokered by Coakley for the sister to be released on probation with the precondition that she not give any media interviews that might embarass the Middlesex DA's office counts.

            Quite to the contrary she has fought to keep the family in prison.  As well as against reversing any of the other errors of the Middlesex DAs office even in the face of DNA evidence.

            This will however probably not hurt her.  Whether or not karma played a part this was never a public issue in Harshbarger's, Riley's, or Coakley's attempts at to become US Senator or Massachusetts Governor.

            I don't think any ambitious DA has ever paid a price for not letting an innocent man go free.  They only see the risk of releasing them.

            The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

            by Taget on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 12:31:17 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  if the polls are to be believed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        at this point Coakley was heavily favored to beat Scott Brown, too.

        I kind of hate rehashing this subject but I still have yet to see proof she's learned from her mistakes other than "she beat her Some Dude GOP opponent in 2010!"

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 08:31:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, Jeez. (0+ / 0-)

      I tried to go online to find a similar bear head...but when I searched “Big Bear Head” it gave me a San Diego craigslist ad entitled “Big Bear needs some quick head now” and then I just decided to never go on the internet again.--Jenny Lawson

      by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:00:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Coakley's 2010 Campaign is overplayed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      It did not help the situation, but Ed Markey's was almost as bad. What it lacked in gaffes, it made up for in lifelessness, that made her look riveting.

      2010 was 20% Coakley, 25% Brown, and 55% the year. Fall of 2009 was a particularly toxic time in Massachusetts, which had seen probably the single most divisive Clinton-Obama fight of the 2008 Primaries, which had left the party badly divided. Kennedy, Kerry and Patrick had gone all in for Obama and been crushed by Cahill, Coakley, and the old Democratic machine. While Kennedy's death made everyone forget about that, there was huge slice of blue-collar democrats who were inclined from the start to expect disappointment from Obama, and they got that.

      Brown was perfectly designed to appeal to exactly that constituency, in a way a Romney, Weld or Card never could have. It needs to be remembered that in the Summer of 2009 Coakley was the most popular politician in the state, more so than Patrick, Kerry, or even Kennedy post-Primary and pre-death. Her not campaigning did not suddenly create a close race, nor could it, because there were no gaffes to cover until it closed.

      At that point those gaffes become near fatal,  not so much because they hurt her, as because they dominated the narrative, and therefore prevented any sort of shift to closer scrutiny of Brown after he began to surge. As a consequence, the narrative of the Brown surge lasted through election day.

      Coakley should be blamed for not responding or stopping that surge. But that surge was created by Barack Obama and Deval Patrick, and could never have happened in the first place under a President Clinton or McCain. Nor, as it turned out, could the coalition be maintained.

      •  Please clarify what you're saying. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades
        that surge was created by Barack Obama and Deval Patrick, and could never have happened in the first place under a President Clinton or McCain.
        Why couldn't it have happened under President Clinton? The only difference I can think of is racial, and I doubt that was relevant to the 2010 election in MA.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:51:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's more complicated than that (0+ / 0-)

          I think there are virtually no Massachusetts voters who (1) decided to vote Brown over Coakley because of racial animosity toward President Obama and (2) weren't voting for Brown anyway.

          But the right-wing hate machine, particularly virulent in the case of Obama, created a big media sensation in 2009-10 that Obama's administration, and by extension the Democrats, were screwing things up big time. That overall climate had a major effect. People were mad about the ACA horse-trading. People were even quoted in the NYT that they voted Brown, voted GOP for the first time, to "send a message" that DC should be tougher on banks. A stupider "message" I cannot imagine.

          Brown ran a mistake-free campaign perfectly tailored to blue-collar townie Reagan Democrat types who don't like perceived "elitism" in the Mass. Democratic Party, and Coakley made gaffe after gaffe.

          "I am not for a return to that definition of Liberty under which for many years a free people were being gradually regimented into the service of the privileged few." Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1934

          by fenway49 on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 08:10:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And you think President Clinton, (0+ / 0-)

            whether Bill or Hillary, would have been tougher on banks? Or do you think Republicans would have been less uncooperative with a universal health plan from either of them? So I'm not sure I get your point.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 06:10:06 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'll try to clarify (0+ / 0-)

              I think race affected the Senate election, but I don't think people voted Brown because they themselves felt racial animus toward Obama or anyone else.

              Some combination of racial animus on the right and considering Rove's "permanent Republican majority" as birthright drove the right-wing hate machine that has hounded both Clintons for two decades to new heights under Obama, creating a climate that was all-the-more tough for Democrats in late 2009-early 2010.

              Because Massachusetts Democrats were bitterly divided from the 2008 presidential primaries, a huge number of Democratic-leaning voters were primed to be down on Obama and, by extension, the party, from the day he took office. Brown played all that perfectly. Coakley, in demeanor, was exactly the kind of Democratic nominee that doesn't appeal to blue-collar Democrats here.

              "I am not for a return to that definition of Liberty under which for many years a free people were being gradually regimented into the service of the privileged few." Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1934

              by fenway49 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:16:12 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Don't buy it at all (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY
        It did not help the situation, but Ed Markey's was almost as bad. What it lacked in gaffes, it made up for in lifelessness, that made her look riveting.
        Having lived through both, I couldn't disagree more. I saw nothing at all out of Coakley's operation. Markey came to my home neighborhood three times. It wasn't lifeless. Ed Markey's campaign was about turning out reliably Democratic voters in a low-turnout election, and that it did.

        Turnout was low everywhere, but contrary to normal expectations it dropped the most in Republican-friendly towns and least in strongly Democratic towns. In key Democratic strongholds like Cambridge, Somerville, Newton, Northampton, the ground game got Democratic voters out while Republicans stayed home, and Markey got a higher percentage than Warren or Coakley in many of those towns.

        In the 58 towns (out of 351) where turnout exceeded 60% of 2010 Senate turnout, Markey won 70-30. In the 92 towns where turnout was below 40% of 2010 Senate turnout, Markey lost 56-44. We got our people out, they didn't.

        "I am not for a return to that definition of Liberty under which for many years a free people were being gradually regimented into the service of the privileged few." Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1934

        by fenway49 on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 08:35:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Overplayed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY
        It needs to be remembered that in the Summer of 2009 Coakley was the most popular politician in the state, more so than Patrick, Kerry, or even Kennedy post-Primary and pre-death.
        The polls are showing the same thing now. That's what happens when you get your name in the paper all the time for prosecuting bad guys, enforcing civil rights, and filing consumer protection lawsuits. The AG's office generates a lot of good press and doesn't have a ton going on that leads to bad press. Whether that popularity remains in a tough campaign is yet to be seen.

        "I am not for a return to that definition of Liberty under which for many years a free people were being gradually regimented into the service of the privileged few." Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1934

        by fenway49 on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 08:43:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Coakley is certainly a real candidate... (0+ / 0-)

      ...as are others.  Personally I'm supporting Steve Grossman.  Yes, I think she's learned, but I probably would have put MA down as lean rather than likely D.  Baker may have a better shot if the general remains a two-way race.  He split the anti-Deval vote with Tim Cahill last time and kept the incumbent under 50%.

      Procedural questions: Lately I've not seen the hiderate option (not that I've been tempted to use it recently), but I can still recommend, why?  Also, on another thread but not this one there were buttons saying "rate all" what's that for and why does it not appear everywhere?

      •  Agree (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        vadem165

        I too am strongly leaning Grossman.

        Posted this elsewhere, in the election digest:

        MA-Gov will be tougher than people think. The GOP already has settled on Charlie Baker, who's well-funded and came within 6 or 7 points of incumbent Deval Patrick in a three-way race in November 2010, which was a Republican election elsewhere but not so much here.

        The Dems are likely looking at a primary between at least Martha Coakley and Steve Grossman. Both hold statewide elected office now. The primary would be in early September, giving the Republican a huge head start. Massachusetts has a long history of electing GOP governors to "balance" the heavily Democratic legislature (the past 8 years under Gov. Patrick show the legislature needs no such balancing; it's conservative enough on its own).

        Coakley, who has greater name recognition, is way up in the polls for now. If she is the nominee I know many activists who have no enthusiasm for her due to her Senate election performance and other reasons. With Markey up again and a tight race projected in MA-06 plus downballot state offices, volunteers will have other places to spend their time. It's amazing how many people have told me they will not knock doors for Martha Coakley again.

        "I am not for a return to that definition of Liberty under which for many years a free people were being gradually regimented into the service of the privileged few." Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1934

        by fenway49 on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 08:12:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Gavin Newsom seems the de facto replacement (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM, ehstronghold, Gygaxian, MichaelNY

    although there is no shortage of possibles including Kamala Harris

    • California — Jerry Brown (D): Like many of the other governors listed here, Brown hasn't yet announced his plans for 2014. Unlike nearly all the rest, though, there's at least some reason to think Brown might not seek re-election, given his age (75). If Brown declines to run, an intense fight to succeed him among Democrats will likely ensue. But Republicans don't stand a chance regardless of whom they face.

    Warning - some snark may be above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ eState4Column5©2013 "I’m not the strapping young Muslim socialist that I used to be" - Barack Obama 04/27/2013

    by annieli on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:23:50 AM PDT

  •  I see Wisconsin is pretty red... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, Aquarius40

    Guess those people are gluttons for punishment if they re-elect Walker.

    Just another day in Oceania.

    by drshatterhand on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:25:13 AM PDT

    •  The problem is (7+ / 0-)

      Wisconsin has no Democrats worth voting for. Our bench is empty, and the state party is utterly incompetant.

      Suspicion Breeds Confidence

      by tlf on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:36:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What about Russ Feingold? (0+ / 0-)

        I thought I heard a whisper that he might be interested.

        •  he's said he won't be a candidate in 2014 (7+ / 0-)

          but left 2016 open to speculation. If he runs for office, he'll probably try to retake his seat from Ron Johnson. I think that'd be a tossup at worst.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 01:52:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Senate 2016 (0+ / 0-)

           Feingold's helping Obama in Africa right now. He's going to get his Senate seat back from (mo)Ron Johnson in 2016. Please don't broach the "Feingold for guv" topic again, cause it ain't happening.

             Concentrate on having a strong-message primary and general election candidate, and a couple seem to be positioning themselves for it (State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout and former Commerce Sec. Mary Burke). There could be others.

             If the primary was in 6 months instead of 10, I'd be more concerned. Walker's digging his hole plenty deep right now, and it'll go deeper as his stupid book comes out in the next month, along with more scandals.

      •  I believe Kathleen Vinehout is a worthy candidate (0+ / 0-)

        This state senator is solid on Democratic issues, has a varied background as both a college professor (health administration and women's studies) and a dairy farmer, and will appeal to voters in rural areas because she is one of them. I like to describe her personality as "down to earth," which is just about the best thing you can say about a person in a place like Wisconsin. Many ordinary Democrats who know of Vinehout favor her over the millionaire Mary Burke, who has just announced her candidacy and has apparently impressed the state party chair with the money she would put into a campaign. But money is a poor substitute for grassroots enthusiasm, and Kathleen Vinehout will have that if she decides to run.  

        •  elite (0+ / 0-)

          The main problem for Vinehout is that the party elite (including the head of the state party) have already poured all their energy into Burke.

          The tough decision to Vinehout is whether she stays in a Senate seat she's almost certainly win in 2014 or if the makes the jump to Governor.  She'd be a great Governor.  But, is it worth the risk of losing?  Her service is valuable, but not respected by the party power-brokers.

          I am envisioning putting my efforts next summer into helping some Senate and maybe Assembly candidates, unless Vinehout jumps into the Governor race.

          Citizen from WI-07 (Marathon County)

          by CentralWIGuy on Fri Oct 11, 2013 at 07:57:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Walker's position is strong (8+ / 0-)

      But it's a big stretch to call a state that recently elected Tammy Baldwin "red". It's just that for a purple state, Wisconsin seems remarkably tolerant of ideological extremism, it's highly polarized (particularly at the state level), and we don't have a strong candidate.

      Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:24:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Walker bought his last election at $23 a vote (2+ / 0-)

      Thanks to huge campaign contributions to his recall election by millionaires and billionaires Walker had $30 million in his campaign account.  Since it was a recall election Walker was not limited in the amount of money he could collect due to a loophole in the state law.  Walker spent $23  for every vote he got.  That doesn't even take into account the money spent on his behalf by conservative PACs.  Walker probably outspent his opponent by 10 to 1.  However, this all changes in the regular election where the playing field will be more even.

      Walker's popularity is down and it is quite possible that if a good Democratic candidate is found that Walker would be defeated and the state of Wisconsin saved.

      There have been plenty of Walker scandals that should hurt him.  For example, there is the fake job agency that Walker created called the WEDC where a recent audit found over $50 million of state money was missing.  Grants were given to companies that didn't create a single job.  Employees at the agency were found to have spent taxpayers money on things like football tickets and alcohol.

  •  Remember that Kathleen Sebelius was Governor (6+ / 0-)

    of Kansas before Brownback. Well Mark Parkinson was appointed when Kathleen Sebelius left.

    Don't underestimate the good people of Kansas. There is a limit to that, up with which, they will put.

    Only gun owners can control their guns and they say oopsie way too much. I lost it, I forgot it, it just went off. Support Gun Kill Speed Limits and Gun Ownership Speed Limits.

    by 88kathy on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:37:04 AM PDT

  •  Should Be Pale Blue For Minnesota..... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat

    Dayton could be ripped apart if the Minnesota GOP gets its shit together and runs a populist campaign against him.  There are a couple of candidates on the Republican side who seem capable of doing that, but it's unclear they'll prevail in the primary or if they will follow the Pawlenty script of right-populism if they do.  Never underestimate the Minnesota Republican Party's ability to misplay a relatively strong hand.

    •  On what issues? They already lost on (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MetroGnome, MichaelNY

      gay marriage and voter id.   I don't see it unless the economy tanks or there's some scandal.   Minnesotans do not hate health care so I don't think they're going to be able to run on that unless MNSURE is a fiasco.

      •  The Vikings Stadium and The Tax Increases..... (0+ / 0-)

        There are more affluent suburbanites in Jeff Johnson's stomping grounds who have been trending Democratic in recent years but will likely be frustrated with the tax increase on the wealthy.  There's a reason Terri Bonoff distanced herself from her party by voting against the budget.

        And from a more populist perspective, the more regressive taxes used to finance the Vikings stadium (and the entire debacle of the Vikings stadium overall) should be easy pickings for the GOP, particularly to outstate voters, if the Republicans have what it takes to run a competent campaign.

        Another issue that could poach votes out of a DFL stronghold is the copper mine issue on the Iron Range, which is incredibly divisive and now looks poised to be rejected.  Dayton won in 2010 based on his strength in the Iron Range, and he can't afford to lose a good chunk of votes up there, which I suspect are at risk over the fate of this project.

        •  I could see it if there's a big scandal on (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, askew, LordMike, MichaelNY

          the Vikings but while people aren't enthusiastic about it (including me) I just don't see it driving people to the polls in huge numbers and while there certainly could be some backlash on the taxes I'm not sure that's going to drive turnout if the state's budget looks in pretty good shape and things appear to be generally going well.  Depending on how this shutdown fiasco plays out that might even be offset by anger at the Republican extremists.  But heck, if the economy goes to hell all bets are off.   I don't know about the Range.  I suppose that could be a problem if Democrats aren't motivated in the metro to turnout.

          If they had a strong candidate on the Senate or the Governor ballot that could impact both races but they don't seem to have a great candidate for either.

        •  I see those issues as pluses for Dayton (4+ / 0-)

          Polls show that raising taxes on the well to so is popular in Minnesota just as it was nationwide. The Vikings stadium is pretty much a non issue IMO, those most passionately against it are on the far right and the far left, unlikely to change their party of choice.  I could actually see Dayton picking up the votes of some 20-30 year old face painting Viking fans (Not his natural base).

          A SSP guy in a DKE world.

          by Minnesota Mike on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 04:14:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  How can they campaign against (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, MichaelNY

          BOTH regressive taxes and taxes on the wealthy? It would take a deft candidate to avoid getting tangled in that.

          Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

          by anastasia p on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 04:20:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Dems avoided a buzzsaw with the budget, though (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          and the GOP shut down the government and had scandals last year.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:57:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  All of this is just more evidence that the (0+ / 0-)

    American people are clueless and there is very little hope for the future.  With just how immoral, incompetent, and destructive the Cons have shown themselves to be post 2010, and the fact that the D's are not wiping the floor with the Cons' candidates in every midwest state and Florida is depressing.  If the tea party's insanity can't definitively show just how unfit to govern Cons are to the American masses.  Nothing will.  Its a shame.

    Clinton- best economy in a generation, surpluses (which are extremely destructive to the economy, yet are perceived as a good thing by the ignorant masses) and what do the people do?  They elect Bush.  Sure, Bush and the Supreme court stole the election, but the fact that it was ever even that close tells us all we need to know.

    Bush- Two disastrous wars, true incompetence, The Great Recession (which can hardly be blamed on Bush, but yet again the masses don't know anything so they think because it happened under his presidency, he's responsible).  And what happens, after two years of Democratic control, the idiot masses vote in the largest and dumbest group of Cons in history.

    I don't know about you all, but I see absolutely no reason for optimism anywhere.

    MMT = Reality

    "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

    by Auburn Parks on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:44:22 AM PDT

  •  The one thing that's clear is that there is way (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nocynicism

    too much red in that map. Republicans have gerrymandered their way into a conquest of the House. If they lie and charm their way into more governorships, I fear the spread of the Midwestern Plague of Snyder, Kasich and Walker.

    So long as the bourgeoisie control the cultural institutions which define social reality, they will set the basic rules of debate and thereby control the range of possible outcomes. ~ Antonio Gramsci

    by 4Freedom on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:46:07 AM PDT

  •  martinez in NM (0+ / 0-)

    She is not going to win in the next election.  She may have cultivated a moderate profile (because she doesn't actually govern) but everyone sees the results of her incompetence on a daily basis.  People in NM don't want to be last in catagories of poverty, education, health and others.  The martinez's of northern new mexico may not vote for their namesake next time.

  •  Cuomo is a D in name only (7+ / 0-)

    He is hateful to teachers, state employees, well, people who actual work and don’t live his lifestyle.

    I don’t want to ever vote for him again, and i may not.

  •  We used to elect Democrats from Idaho (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Willinois, Gygaxian, postalblue

    and TX. Now we have a safe Republican governorship in NJ.

    Anybody want to change overall party strategy yet? The last 25 years don't seem to have done us any favors.

    I tried to go online to find a similar bear head...but when I searched “Big Bear Head” it gave me a San Diego craigslist ad entitled “Big Bear needs some quick head now” and then I just decided to never go on the internet again.--Jenny Lawson

    by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:57:10 AM PDT

  •  Mary Fallin may be a wee bit more vulnerable (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat

    than we thought, if the right person were to challenge her. She just came out against a bond issue to build storm shelters in schools. Given what happened in Moore back in May, people here are pretty upset with her, even Republicans. You'd never know it from our right-wing local media, but she has angered a LOT of people. Dead kids get the attention of even the wingiest of wingers.

    She said she couldn't support the bond issue because it would take away funding from things that protect our children. Yes. She said that.

    There is a petition being circulated to get this issue on the ballot. If you are in central Oklahoma, the Harley Davidson shop in Moore is collecting signatures. Please sign!

    A little blue dot in a vast sea of red.

    by deha on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:07:56 PM PDT

  •  Sandoval in NV (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BlueSasha, MichaelNY

    The patient dumping is a non-scandal in Nevada. Very little coverage and I really don't think anyone cares.

    To be honest, Sandoval is pretty close to the kind of moderate Republican that we talk about not existing anymore.

  •  Iowa (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Two other Democrats in the race: veterans activist Bob Krause, who scored about 10% in the 2010 Senate primary. His three legislative terms in the 70s put him a notch above Some Dude, which is more than can be said for Paul Dahl, a bus driver who won 5% in a 1994 congressional primary.

    John Deeth http://www.jdeeth.blogspot.com

    by jdeeth on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 01:25:31 PM PDT

  •  I think Michigan is lean Snyder... (5+ / 0-)

    I'll need to see how good Schauer is as a campaigner/on the stump before I believe anything less.  He's trying to run out the "One tough nerd" pap again, but this time he has a record he has to defend, and Schauer will need to rebut that "I'm a non-ideologue technocrat" stuff by point out how he passed RTW during a lame duck AFTER the GOP lost seats in the State lege because he knew it wouldn't pass in the new session as a result.  That is something Snyder cannot defend as being non-ideologue.  Paint him as a phony, a wolf in sheeps clothing far right Corporatist looking to sell Michigan to big business.  His emergency manager is destroying worker pensions and selling off anything of value in Detroit to the highest corporate bidder as well - paint the EM as wholly undemocratic, a hostile take over by big business cronies to raid Detroit.  (Problem being non-Detroit Michiganders very likely support the EM actions in Detroit).  

    Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 01:33:20 PM PDT

    •  My 80 year old VOTING Dad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      is independent, having voted for Obama twice and Rick Snyder. He's my bell weather for Michigan.

      And despite having his pension taxed and the right to work controversy, he still likes Snyder.

      Arizona: Remember the good old days, when we were just known as the Grand Canyon State?

      by AZ RedWingsFan on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 02:30:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL - Quinn (0+ / 0-)

    Got to completely disagree on this one:

    Quinn's suffered both thanks to legislation he has pushed through (most prominently an income tax hike) as well as legislation he's failed to advance (namely, public pension reform), leading to "Quinn fatigue" in a state not known for loving its governors.
    One-term Quinn (1TQ) barely won election because labor turned out the vote for him. Then he turned around and stabbed them in the back repeatedly, most notably in his announcing his "calling" to dismantle public employee pensions after public employees never missed a payment.

    He's a Democratic governor in a Democratically controlled state, yet he's talking like a Republican in his attacks on labor.

    In short he's turned his back on the very people who put him in office and make up both his base and his boots on the ground.

    He's hosed. And so is Illinois as the Democratically controlled legislature is hell bent on enacting Republican reforms to public pensions that affect over 800,000 Illinois families, that will kill Illinois' economy and violate the Illinois and US constitution.

    Republicans sense an opportunity in this...
    That's an understatement. Illinois leans Republican thanks to Quinn and Madigan's "leadership".

    Imagination is more important than knowledge. Albert Einstein

    by michael in chicago on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 03:57:45 PM PDT

    •  he barely won in 2010 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      largely because it was 2010. While he may do worse on account of some things, like less enthusiastic labor support, he'll do somewhat better on account of others, like that we should have better Dem turnout than in 2010 and we'll likely do better among swing voters.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 04:06:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes and no (0+ / 0-)

        It was 2010, but he was a terrible candidate. He should have destroyed Brady, who was also a terrible candidate. But Quinn can't message worth beans. That's the only reason raising one of the lowest income tax rates in the country is giving him trouble as he can't articulate this in any way other than cowering in fear of the Republican charge of "Quinn raised taxes by two-thirds."

        For crying out loud, when your tax rate is one of the lowest in the nation at 3% and significantly lower than all neighboring states any increase is can be made into a major percentage. Instead of standing up and fighting against this messaging, he never even questioned it or articulated how it was misleading

        The Republicans won that messaging strategy to the point I hear Democrats use it as a reason why they have to cut constitutionally protected pension benefits.

        Not one mention of Illinois flat tax or the need for a graduated income tax. Not one mention of Illinois' low tax rates in comparison to surrounding states.

        He's toast.

        Imagination is more important than knowledge. Albert Einstein

        by michael in chicago on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 05:32:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Wis is not "likely" R (0+ / 0-)

       What if I told you there was an Obama state with an R incumbent governor, where the guv has a DISapproval rating of 49%, a net approval rating of -1, can't get to 50% against any possible opponent (despite having no Dem opponent formally enter the face), and whose administration has had scandals and ethical challenges continually the headlines for the last few weeks.

      What if I also told you that this state has continued to disappoint economically, despite the guv running on a promise of more jobs, and the governor has openly admitted to "divide and conquer/ no compromise" tactics that define the Congressional GOP, and the DC GOP's falling approval ratings.

       If I told you this, there'd be no way you'd rate that race as "likely R". But that's what David Nir did with Scott Walker in Wisconsin. At best, Wisconsin should be "lean R", and that's only because there's no formally declared Dem candidate.  

      Walker is extremely vulnerable and the last 10% of his 48% approval is EXTREMELY soft- and a lot softer than his 49% disapproval. I'd highly suggest David think again about his Wisconsin analysis, because Walker is quite beatable in 2014 (if he even runs), and we don't need to see false barriers put up.

  •  Ohio's a tossup (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    The biggest obstacle in our way is faint-hearted Democrats who believe there's no chance of defeating the slippery, dangerous, corrupt Kasich — so they don't see the point of getting involved.

    Kasich has angered labor, outraged women, and pissed off local government officials — even Republican ones — with the  destructive cuts to local governments and public schools, even while massively increasing state spending o the highest level by far in its history. The result has been huge tax increases on ordinary people like me, while his highly touted income tax "cut" will return thousands of dollars to people with incomes of a few hundred thousand and be barely enough to buy a plain pizza for those with incomes under $50,000.

    Kasich is trying desperately to retreat to warm-and-fuzzy campaign mode — pulling his "never said that" blank-slate act and throwing out a few teensy bones to make himself look "compassionate."

    But it's catching up with him. His secretive privatization of the Department of Development, JobsOhio, is pretty much a failure — job loss is accelerating, and even the Columbus Disgrace, which is pretty much his personal newsletter, has taken notice of the lack of transparency and the conflicts of interest on its board.

    Arrogance on the part of the Ohio GOP has to be taken into account too. After outraging women by sneaking a bunch of anti-choice crap into he budget bill at the last minute with no hearings — the better to avoid what happened in Texas —and signing it in the dead of a Sunday nigh surrounded by six other middle-aged white men, his pals in the leg held a press conference just weeks later to announce they were reintroducing the "Heartbeat" bill and ALL of HB 200, where some of the stuff in the budget bill came from.  And if THAT didn't piss off women enough, they brought the Duggar family in to tell Ohio women "We're just helping you to have those 19 kids God wants you to have."

    The reasons for Democrats to be motivated are piling up, and Kasich will be engulfed in scandal within the year. Everyone got worked up because of one poll in the late spring showing Kasich recovering. The more recent poll shows him crashing and burning again — back to square one.

    It's going to be a a challenging race for Kasich too. The one is definitely a toss-up.

    Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

    by anastasia p on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 04:13:58 PM PDT

    •  Sounds like Wisconsin (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Superpole, LordMike

       You could replace "Kasich" with "Walker" and you'd have the same answers. Right down to the anti-woman Legislature and the vulnerable approval levels. And certain wimpy Dems who seem to care more about money and slide rules instead of talking about the corruption and horrible reality that has resulted from having the GOP in power.

        Of course, since Walker's and Kasich's real bosses are Koch and ALEC, I guess that isn't all that surprising.

      •  There's one big difference between OH and WI (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        Ohio has a good A-list candidate, who was willing to give up a plum job for what many believe to be a long shot.  Kasich and Walker are both very beatable, but the OH Demcoratic party (as weak as it is), is at least not afraid to challenge Walker like the cowardly Wisconsin Democratic Party.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 06:44:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Uhh, Where Were You in 2010? (0+ / 0-)

    when we lost I believe it was eleven gubertanorial_ seats to buffoons like Walker in WI, Snyder in MI, Scott in FL, etc?

    "The 1% don't want SOLUTIONS; they've worked very hard the last four decades to get conditions the way they are now".

    by Superpole on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 05:07:40 PM PDT

  •  Maine: Again, it's super disingeuous (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY, jncca

    to blame Cutler for LePage. Especially to say this (emphasis mine):

    [I]t'll only happen because independent attorney Eliot Cutler once again splits the left-leaning vote.
    Cutler got second place, not the Democrat. Cutler's vote total roughly doubled the Democrat.

    Mainers love to vote for Independents. Trying to freeze out Independents from running is not going to help. It's left leaning Mainers that voted for Mitchell that gave us LePage, not Cutler.

    I'm rooting for Michaud this time around, but blaming Cutler for Governor 38% is just not correct.

    25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 05:08:06 PM PDT

  •  Charles Barkley (0+ / 0-)

    Many years ago there was talk that Charles Barkley would run for governor of Alabama.  The "Round Mound of Rebound" probably has no chance of sniffing the governor's mansion, but he would be a very entertaining candidate.  Last time I checked he was an Indy.

  •  Map color legend, first chart (map?) not working. (0+ / 0-)
  •  Oregon not looking so good (0+ / 0-)

    Gov. Kitzhaber really pissed on the Democratic base with last week's "Grand Bargain" special session, which loots public employee pensions, gives tax breaks to the 1%, and worst of all, contains a state pre-emption of local and county gmo bans. If there's any doubt about the overall level of anger toward this corporatist governor in Oregon, check out the volume of angry comments on his facebook page. After supporting this guy for many years (he did some great things with the state health care system back in the 90s), many of his strongest advocates (including myself) are astounded at his betrayal of progressive principles and capitulation to right wing interests (including ALEC, which has been pushing state gmo preemption bills nationwide).
    Gov. Kitzhaber may have just paved the way to a GOP takeover of the state, by disillusioning the Democratic base to such a degree.

    'I don't want to live in a society that does these sort of things' -Edward Snowden

    by DFH on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 05:58:45 AM PDT

  •  Hitting the Pavement for Paul Davis, KS (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    belinda ridgewood

    Let's get Koch's boy Brownback OUTTA HERE.

  •  Kudos! (0+ / 0-)

    I wasn't too sure about some of your ratings, but your explanations were very logical for every one.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 10:52:15 PM PDT

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