Resurgent Republic, an outfit of GOP pollsters, has
some advice to Republicans regarding the government shutdown. Let's take a gander, why don't we, below the fold.
1. Obamacare remains a political albatross for Democrats, but a government shutdown has proven to be more toxic to voters.
The shutdown
is toxic to voters, but how much of an albatross can Obamacare be for Democrats when they handily won the 2012 elections? It's true, more people disapprove of the law, but the polling also consistently shows that 1) people don't understand the law, and 2) people support individual components of the law. That's why Republicans haven't been able to capitulate on the supposed opposition to it, it's why people don't want to see the law defunded, and certainly not via government shutdown, and why support for the law is
increasing as people start paying more attention to it.
2. The plan of using a government shutdown to spark a national discussion on Obamacare fell flat.
No shit.
3. While the White House and some in the media view the government
shutdown through the lens of the Tea Party, the intransigent factions of Republicans and Democrats are equal in size.
Somehow, the fact that Democrats want Democrats to hold firm means something to these guys. Not sure why. Fact is, the government shutdown is being viewed through the lens of the Tea Party
because they are responsible for it. It's true, the terrorist gets more attention than his victims.
4. Women are following the government shutdown more closely than men, and that should be concerning for Republicans.
Memo to GOP pollsters at Resurgent Republic: that "rebranding" thing was soooo January 2013.
We entered the government shutdown certain of one thing:
there will be no shortage of blame to go around. Above 50 percent in January,
President Obama’s job approval now registers in the low-to-mid 40’s, and voters
are increasingly pessimistic about the direction of the country
Obama hasn't seen 50 percent approval
since February, so the fact that he was above 50 percent at the time is irrelevant to how the shutdown is playing. If you look at a more narrow slice of time, as in the last week, the president has actually seen his numbers go
up in the most recent NBC/WSJ, Rasmussen (ha!), and Fox (ha ha!) polls and has been mostly stable according to everyone else.
Now that they've surveyed the state of public opinion (as well as Republicans can, being that they are Republican), they now get down to giving some advice. Try not to cringe too much.
Public opinion remains stacked against Obamacare, and this is problematic for Senate Democrats in red states, so conservatives should look to 2014 and highlight Obamacare’s policy and implementation woes along the way.
In reality, November 2014 can't get here soon enough. Even in those Red states like
North Carolina,
Louisiana, and even
Arkansas. Heck, Republicans actually need to start worrying about their own Red states of
Georgia and
Kentucky.
The reasonableness of President Obama has been tarnished in the shutdown.
No evidence, other than the fervent wishes of conservative pollsters, apparently.
The president strikes a harsh chord when his message to Congress and the American people is a barrage about not negotiating rather than leading a divided government
He sounds a principled, strong chord. You say "tomato", I say "good luck with that, buddy."
Let’s remember, not long ago voters believed Mitt Romney, not President Obama, was better able to bridge the partisan divide
And Mitt Romney won!
Habitually labeling Republicans as arsonists and hostage takers reminds voters of the president’s own weakness in this area.
This'll certainly be a problem for Obama's 2016 reelection bid, given how it made him lose in 2012.
While this is not your 90’s shutdown, it is not an envious position for Republicans either
It's
worse than your 90s shutdown.
If Republicans can put the shutdown dysfunction in their rear view mirror, they can move to a more favorable playing field, connecting with a majority of Independents who want the government to stop spending money it doesn’t have.
That's the biggest fucking "if" I have ever seen. Before they can put any shutdown dysfunction in their rear view mirror they have to capitulate to Obama and the Democrats by providing a clean continuing budget resolution and a clean raising of the debt limit. And if they do that, the party's fringy base will explode, littering that "favorable playing field" with the debris of a once-vibrant national party.
But let's say they do that, and the GOP "connects" with those independents ... so what? Romney won Independents in 2012 by a 50-45 margin. "Independent" includes "teabaggers and other assorted conservatives too embarrassed to say they are Republicans". The big question is whether the GOP can connect with moderates, who were 41 percent of the 2012 electorate and went to Obama by a whopping 56-41 margin.