This morning, MoveOn.org released the results of a poll it commissioned, one that contains bad news for U.S. Representative Tim Walberg, who represents rural northern, western, and southern Washtenaw County in the U.S. House of Representatives as part of the Seventh District. The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, showed that Walberg would lose an election held today to a generic Democratic challenger by nine percentage points, 51% to 42%, after poll respondents were told he supported the federal government shutdown.In addition to Walberg, both Dan Benishek (MI-01) and Kerry Bentivolio (MI-11) were the other two Michigan Representatives among the twenty-one whose seats were at risk of being lost next year.
Yesterday morning, MoveOn and PPP posted More Republican House Seats in Jeopardy on Scribd, which showed that two more Michigan Representatives, Fred Upton (MI-06) and Mike Rogers (MI-08) could lose their seats next year. Follow over the jump for the details.
Twelve new surveys conducted this week in GOP-held House districts indicate that an even greater number of Republican incumbents are in danger of being voted out of office next year thanks to the government shutdown.MoveOn has a map showing all of the Republican representatives who could lose next year here.
Public Policy Polling has now surveyed a total of 36 House districts in two weeks, and the results show Republican incumbents are in serious danger in 29 out of the 36.
The districts surveyed this week in which a generic Democratic challenger leads prior to any information being provided about the shutdown are:
CA-25, FL-27, MI-06, PA-06, WA-08
The additional districts in which a generic Democratic challenger leads after voters are told the Republican incumbent supported a shutdown are:
MI-08, NJ-03, VA-10
The districts in which the incumbent Republican leads throughout the survey are:
NJ-02, NY-02, WA-03, WI-01
Fred Upton was losing 51% to 38% to a Generic Democrat even before the poll respondents were told he supported the shutdown. After they were told of his support, he was losing 56% to 36%. That puts him in Bentivolio territory. Bad Santa* was losing 53% to 37% before people were told of his support of the shutdown, 54% to 39% after.
As for Mike Rogers, he was ahead 46% to 43% before the residents of his district were told of his support, but fell behind 47% to 44%.
I had no idea Upton was in such trouble, bad enough that the shutdown didn't matter much. As for Rogers, the shutdown could make all the difference between his keeping his seat and losing it next election. So much for him as Pac-Man!
Chris Hayes takes a closer look at Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, R-Mich. A former Santa-for-hire, Bentivolio is now one of the tea partiers running the country.
LOL, Kerry Bentivolio, Bad Santa.