RE: NBC/ESQUIRE poll NBC/ESQUIRE Poll about the 'New American Center' in politics. It claims that 51% of citizens fall in the middle of the spectrum.
I've come away with a couple of observations that haven't been mentioned that much. Several posts on KOS have already shown that most of us fall in the Bleeding Heart category according to this survey. This brings me to my first observation....
1. The 51% result is very misleading. Just like surveys that show that 30% to 40% of Americans consider themselves to be Independents, election results on a national level do not bear this out. I have long held that there is a "40%" rule - about 40% of the country is going to vote for Democrats and a like number will vote GOP no matter who the candidates are. Save for landslides or strong 3rd party candidate years, that leaves only about 20% of the electorate that is truly up for grabs. This Esquire survey does little to convince me otherwise. Their so-called "Mini-Van Mods" and "Pickup Populists" are going to largely vote Democratic and Republican, respectively. They might say they are indies, but their votes are pretty predictable. Perhaps, because of the mess in Washington caused by the Tea Party there may be more and more folks so genuinely fed up that my 40% rule is more like a 35% rule, but, I don't believe this survey's results that more than half of the country is genuinely in the "middle".
2. The most troubling result - and the one which should concern DailyKos readers worry - is that 21% of the electorate are solidly liberal (Bleeding Hearts + Gospel Left) VS. 28% who are considered rock solid conservatives (Righteous Right + Talk Radio Heads). That 7% difference may not seem like much at first glance, but that SEVEN percent make up much of the hardcore who turn up in Off-Year and non-Big Ticket races. That 7% will show up for a city Dog-Catcher election if an animal control candidate announces he is supported by the NRA! It's a huge problem for Democrats. It helps explain how the House is still in GOP hands despite Obama's two solid national victories. It goes a long way towards the reason that there are 30 GOP governors, as well as how Republicans hold a 28-17 (with 5 split) advantage in State Legislatures. Bottom Line: Democrats have to do a much better job of getting out the vote in non-Presidential years and all the races 'down-ballot'
The full NBC/ESQUIRE results are here: Full NBC/ESQUIRE survey results