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Money swirling into a black hole
By now, everyone following the government shutdown has probably heard that in 16 days it ripped $24 billion out of the U.S. economy. That's Standard & Poor's estimate, released Wednesday. It's probably as good an educated guess as anyone's. But it is just a guess. And it could be six months to a year before we have a really good grip on the real costs. Before then, of course, given that the deal to end the shutdown is a temporary matter and the tea party seems perfectly capable of continuing to shoot itself in the foot and blame the bullet, there is no guarantee we won't see another round of this in early 2014.

Some view the shutdown and accompanying maneuvers as mere theater, and obviously elements of that exist. But this doesn't lessen the impact of the shutdown on the workings of an economy riven with the worst inequality of wealth and income in more than a century and plagued by a tepid 51-month "recovery" almost all of whose benefits have flowed to the top one percent. Nearly six years after the Great Recession began, unemployment remains at 7.3 percent and only that low because so many have bailed out of the workforce altogether.

What's most troubling is that too few economists and almost no politicians see these acute problems as being mostly mere symptoms of chronic problems with the economy, not the least of which is the highly predatory capitalism associated with over-financialization of the entire system.

Amid this continuing mess, it may seem like small potatoes that Standard & Poor's estimates that the shutdown has (or will) cut 0.6 percent off the fourth-quarter gross domestic product, which is what that $24 billion figure amounts to. S&P had previously forecast a 3 percent growth rate for the fourth quarter (on an annualized basis) but now is calling it closer to 2 percent. And S&P's previous forecast has been high compared with others. At IHS Global Insight on Wednesday, analysts lowered their fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate to an annualized 1.6 percent from 2.2 percent. In December, estimates for GDP growth for all of 2013 were running as high as 3.5 percent.

A few details of the shutdown's cost, according to S&P: Some $3.1 billion in lost government services; $152 million a day in lost travel spending; $76 million a day lost from closed national parks and monuments; $217 million per day in lost federal and contractor wages in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area alone. The effects, especially the psychological effects, won't end just because the shutdown has.

Please read for more analysis and a prescription below the fold.

At The Wall Street Journal blog, Sudeep Ready notes:

The most frequent gauge of consumer sentiment, Gallup’s daily index of economic confidence, plummeted in recent weeks. The drop was worse than the decline in 2011’s debt-ceiling fight and on the scale of the stunning drop seen during the global financial crisis in September 2008. Confidence took six months to recover after the 2011 fight.

But Standard & Poor’s economists said another fight in just a few months could pose another threat ahead of the critical holiday shopping season. “If people are afraid that the government-policy brinkmanship will resurface again, and with it the risk of another shutdown or worse, they’ll remain afraid to open up their checkbooks,” S&P said. “That points to another Humbug holiday season.”

S&P also said that the shutdown deal itself is problematic. “The short turnaround for politicians to negotiate some sort of lasting deal will likely weigh on consumer confidence, especially among government workers that were furloughed.”

Mark Zandi, of Moody's Analytics, on Wednesday:

“I’m increasingly of the view that the reason why our economy can’t get into a higher gear is because of the uncertainty created by Washington, that this brinkmanship which happens every 3, to 6, to 12 months is corrosive on our collective psyche and it’s weighing on our willingness and ability to take risk,’’ Zandi said during a meeting with journalists at Washington think tank Third Way. Such uncertainty doesn’t cause businesses to lay off workers, but it does cause them to delay hiring and reduces their willingness to invest in riskier areas such as research and development, he said.
Zandi says the solution is for Washington to get out of the way and let the private sector do its thing. That certainly sounds like something the Third Way folks would like to hear. It was what a lot of Republicans said in January 2009 when the Obama administration put forth its barely passed stimulus program. Flawed as it was, too small as it was, without that stimulus, the economy would be worse off than it is.

But we're now guaranteed another three months of politicians concentrating on cutting government debt.

In a sane world, even in one not directed toward a more thorough fix of our economy, more than a handful of progressive politicians would be pushing for more government borrowing at still-low interest rates to invest in fixing, upgrading and innovating our nation's crumbling infrastructure and providing millions of badly needed jobs in the process. Not just fixing the 70,000 or so bridges and thousands of schools that are falling down from deferred maintenance. But investments in rail, vastly expanded solar and wind and geothermal power, faster and better wi-fi nationwide, and the conversion of Rust Belt and other moribund cities into models of sustainable modernity.

To such proposals, of course, will be raised all manner of objections from across the spectrum, including many progressives. Tiresome stuff. Our slogan should never be: No can do.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Economics on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:15 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos Labor, ClassWarfare Newsletter: WallStreet VS Working Class Global Occupy movement, Money and Public Purpose, and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  the warm-up for GOP Grinchism in time for Holidays (20+ / 0-)

    Warning - some snark may be above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ eState4Column5©2013 "I’m not the strapping young Muslim socialist that I used to be" - Barack Obama 04/27/2013

    by annieli on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:25:37 PM PDT

  •  business was just starting to pick back up (10+ / 0-)

    and it took a nose dive to nothingness... it's really scary...

    "It is horrifying that we have to fight our own government to save the environment." *Ansel Adams* ."Even if you are on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there."*Will Rogers*

    by Statusquomustgo on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:26:10 PM PDT

    •  What is truly scary is that this was all contrived (4+ / 0-)

      by a deviant religious faction hellbent on the end times being manipulated by old money enemies of the new deal.

      That's what is scary to me.

      Gentlemen, congratulations. You're everything we've come to expect from years of government training (Zed, MIB).

      by GreenMother on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:35:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was figuring on the housing industry recovering (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Statusquomustgo

      but shutting down the government backlogged home loans, small business loans, refinancing for maintenance and repairs. Interest rates went back up because of the uncertainty.

      Now I hear we are on the hook for 24 Billion. I figure that is about $160 per taxpayer and we all ought to be able to take it off our taxes as a loss and compensate for that by garnishing the wages of the Republicans in the House that did all the damage.

      Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

      by rktect on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:43:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  To get a long view, you'd have to slap the (10+ / 0-)

    blinders off of the idiots who ginned it all up. As they are surgically attached, I think that's a no go.

  •  Dear MB (5+ / 0-)

    In the fifth paragraph you make mention of $76 million lost, but there is no reference to what was lost. Can you help with clarifying that?

    "It does not require many words to speak the truth." -- Chief Joseph, native American leader (1840-1904)

    by highfive on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:34:10 PM PDT

  •  Well, until the GOP decides (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bronx59

    if their imminent Civil War is a $hooting war or verbal paintball, we are forced to wait.  The economic kidnapping attempt of the US Government was literally their Fort Sumter culminating in redoubling their Pickett's Charge.  Until they carry their dead and wounded off the field, the US has to weather this F5 economic disaster.

    We are holding the line until midterms unfortunately.

    Every time history repeats itself, the price goes up...East Wing Rules

    by Pithy Cherub on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:36:56 PM PDT

  •  Thus, Hurricane Cruz... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Meteor Blades

    adversely affected the entire country.

    Of course, he did get to spend some quality time with the half-term governor. So, that was nice for him.

    How about I believe in the unlucky ones?

    by BenderRodriguez on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:37:31 PM PDT

  •  Everything Republicans have done this year (13+ / 0-)

    has had a dampening effect on the economy.

    You can't paddle a canoe very fast when the other person in it is trying to tip the canoe over.

    "If Wall Street paid a tax on every “game” they run, we would get enough revenue to run the government on." ~ Will Rogers

    by Lefty Coaster on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:38:14 PM PDT

    •  And that all helps them with making Obama an (9+ / 0-)

      ineffective President.  If he's in favor of something, they're automatically knee-jerking against it, even though it would help the country.  They are so heavily invested in hurting Obama they don't care how many others they hurt in the process.  The only way we get beyond this is to kick them out in 2014, not just at the national level but up and down the ballot.

      •  Yes, and F-ing Permanently. (n/t) (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ColoTim

        twitter: @Timeslayer_

        by Timeslayer on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 04:20:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  "Up and down the ballot" may be difficult (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ColoTim

        in the 2014 Midterm.
        In the 2010 midterm, at the state level, Republicans gained 6 governorships and more than 600 seats in state legislatures nationwide. While the new composition of Congress had immediate and noticeable effects, the sizable Republican acquisitions at the state level proved to have an equally significant impact on policy and politics. See Wisconsin.

        "It does not take a majority to prevail... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." Samuel Adams

        by Fungi2bewith on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 10:23:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  commerce (6+ / 0-)

    Today the US dollar is the currency of foreign trade and also the world's most trusted asset.  Tomorrow it will begin its slide from both distinctions--and going through this trauma every 4 months will just steepen the slide.  Not only will we lose power with this fall from grace--we will lose influence.  Look for China to boost its currency's standing--first in Asia--then in the oil producing countries.  

    Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite. John Kenneth Galbraith .

    by melvynny on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:39:33 PM PDT

  •  The long view is obscured but it is there and (5+ / 0-)

    it is on track to being achieved.  It is to get the TPP and the TTIP approved and the law of the world.  I wrote about it here.  http://www.dailykos.com/...

    If we really want to straighten out all this crap we really need to think about shit - Holy Shit.

    by John Crapper on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:41:33 PM PDT

  •  Long views are impossible anyway. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fleisch

    Because they're based in part on factors that are impossible to predict: Emotion, psychology, new regulations, etc.

    If you have 1,000 economists predicting "long views," probability theory will dictate a few being right more often - and they become the next heroes of the day.

    That said, there were a few who predicted the economic collapse based on objective facts that were too massive and entrenched to be affected significantly by those other factors by the time the bubble was here - and who almost nobody listened to anyway. But that was the exception.

    Warren/3-D Print of Warren in 2016!

    by dov12348 on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:43:56 PM PDT

  •  the long view is that business (6+ / 0-)

    isn't uncertain.  Big business is in fact very certain that US consumers no longer have enough disposable income to drive the world economy as they have in the past, that off shoring will continue as percentage increases in profits and hence lucre to the corporate ceo's and cfo's will be easier to obtain in the short term over investment in the US,   that government tax and social policy, bought with all the excess cash the corporations are sitting on guarantee the continued siphoning of wealth to the top 1 percent of 1 percent of the US population, and therefore, there will be no business  investment in the US, or any government investment in infrastructure or human resources, and all those former workers, former members of the middle class need to join the ranks of the poor, and the sooner they all can be starved or beaten into submission, the better things will be for big business.

    •  sounds about right. to optimize, they would like (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jfromga

      everyone to die with a net worth of exactly zero.

      Musn't have a write-off  which wold be caused if someone dies with  negative net worth.... but musn't let them have any positive net worth either.

      After all, that positive net worth simply represents lost chance for more profit sooner, and after all.. time is money..  

      Also, the less anyone has to leave to their kids, the more likely they will be wage slaves.

      yep - they optimize by getting as many as close to zero as possible, without going under.

  •  long view? They like the result.. see Wall Street (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Involuntary Exile, Pluto

    Here is their analysis in a nutshell:

    Due to the "softness" created by the shutdown, the Yellen Fed will put tapering on the backburner..

    Lower interest rates.. that is all they seem to care about anymore. nothing else.

    that, and no inflation which they achieve by keeping unemployment high.

    Seems like some of them will view this as a double-bonus.

    that's their "long view"

  •  Am I naive... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CanyonWren, Odysseus

    or possibly just flat-out stupid to think that if Messrs. Reid, McConnell, Boehner, Biden, Obama and Ms. Pelosi sat down in a room, they couldn't put forth legislation that would address the problems -- infrastructure, jobs, immigration, etc -- that we all know the country is facing?

    None of those six folks has higher political aspirations (well, except for perhaps Biden). None of them is unreasonable. All of them have a stake, especially in light of the past few weeks, in being part of a Congress/executive branch that can point to genuine results to the American public.

    My perception of the position of Speaker of the House has always been that it is one of immense power. When the Speaker said, "You will vote this way or else," the congressperson being strong-armed didn't fight back.

    Why doesn't Boehner hold any power over the Tea Partiers in his caucus? Why don't the usual perks, be it committee assignments, district funds, whatever, sway these people?

    Shouldn't Boehner jump at the chance to burnish his horrible legacy?

    How about I believe in the unlucky ones?

    by BenderRodriguez on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:48:27 PM PDT

    •  Boehner doesn't have power of the TP'ers in (4+ / 0-)

      his caucus because Ted Cruz, frankly, is brilliant--much much smarter than Boehner--and ideological, to boot. It's not all greed for him. Just look up Cruz's bio under Wiki and be amazed at both his accomplishments in education and in the law, then see what his former professor and debate coach, Alan Dershowitz, said of him (that he is off the charts brilliant and debates from a completely ideological slant; in other words, he believes what he is arguing to such an extent that he sways judges, juries, decision-makers by brilliantly supporting those ideas with facts and the law), and look at his political trajectory.

      We haven't seen the last of Ted Cruz, no matter what the Repubs are yelling right now.  We'd best get prepared.

      "You are not even aware of what is possible. The extent of their capabilities is horrifying."Edward Snowden -6.62, -6.92

      by CanyonWren on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:00:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I dunno, I'm not sure I'm convinced. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aquarius40

        Maybe you should use the word "brilliant" a couple more times when describing Ted Cruz.

        Banking on the American people to be able to sort all this out and declare the adult in the room the winner is a very big bet. -Digby

        by Boogalord on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:08:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, we're supposed to ignore that little tidbit? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          a2nite

          That's how we win? If that's your argument, then it's a dumb one.

          "You are not even aware of what is possible. The extent of their capabilities is horrifying."Edward Snowden -6.62, -6.92

          by CanyonWren on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:21:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ignore what little tidbit? How "brilliant" he is? (0+ / 0-)

            He's very good at convincing stupid people of stupid things. He's the current Tea Party figurehead, "fighting the good fight" while driving the rest of his party (and the country) into the ground.

            All his "brilliance" aside, I really don't think he's going to sweep into the presidency come 2013.

            Of course we shouldn't write off the Tea Party or Cruz, but frankly, I think you overstate his "brilliance".

            Banking on the American people to be able to sort all this out and declare the adult in the room the winner is a very big bet. -Digby

            by Boogalord on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:50:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  It's all relative (0+ / 0-)

          Compared to Boehner, a political hack who is sucking down 2 or 3 bottles of wine a day, Cruz is brilliant.

      •  People who think we've beaten Ted Cruz... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CanyonWren

        fundamentally misunderstand him and the danger he poses. He could remake the entire GOP in his own image w/in a year.

        He is a menace. And he's lighting the path for others who will be even worse.

    •  They in all likelyhood, together put forth (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bronx59

      legislation that would address our problems, except that those of the Republican persuasion do NOT want to solve the problems because Obama would get credit for it, and they can't allow Democrats and Obama to be successful.

      In the time it took Adam Lanza to reload, eleven children escaped. What if...

      by Sixty Something on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:14:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I did a diary on this thing this morning (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Don midwest, Meteor Blades, 3goldens

    My short answer to what we need to do:

    First of all, to have the "democratic" portion of government to work at all means that people who vote have a really clear eyed view of who and what they are voting for. In a country where education is skimped upon as the first casualty of any fiscal problem that means the citizens who are responsible for voting for a government elected official may not have the tools to discern who and what is good or bad. It means they will be handicapped at the voting booth. So we have to create a massive educational drive in order to change the dynamic.

    Second, the informant to the electorate must be able to give good information, information not biased or tainted in any way, so that the citizenry has access to the information they need to make good choices. We have to create with rigor and intensity a new media that is accessible to all without a bias that both those who are naturally liberal and those who are naturally authoritarian find easy and informative and a go to place right before elections without fear of being manipulated.

    Third, the people who are the candidates should be people of integrity and intelligence. We will have to create a new paradigm for pols. There has to be a new way of selecting them and supporting them through an election. Left to their own devices they will just lie and tell us what we want to hear and then do whatever the wealthy tell them to do.

    Fourth, even as we work on these things, it is for darn certain that the next crisis will come into being to keep on moving us further and further into a corner. We have to find ways to counter this. We have to find ways to upend that so that WE are using the crisis to create the world that WE want.

    And the harder piece: Fifth we have to KNOW WHAT WE WANT and push our own agenda and be ready for these ready made crisis to push our own.

    What I find hard to understand is why people have a difficult time deciding what would be better than what we have. Good gravy! If nothing else imagine a world without the Boehner's Cantdo and Kochs running things.

    It seems that all my life we have been bombing someone, teaching them a lesson. Every day I understand more deeply how violent we are. Violent to others and violent to ourselves. - Robert Olmstead

    by glitterscale on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:56:10 PM PDT

    •  impossible (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mr MadAsHell
      Second, the informant to the electorate must be able to give good information, information not biased or tainted in any way, so that the citizenry has access to the information they need to make good choices.
      that is a fairytale view. There is no "unbiased information" in politics/public life. Theres information, "facts", but they are without meaning unless people receiving them have a coordinate system by themselves to give it meaning. Public policy, views, etc are not a science. There is no "good" or "bad" independent of the observer´s standpoint. Even suggesting to the people that there can be "unbiased information" is selling them for dumb. People need to taught to think for themselves, and to take positions for themselves. From these positions, they´ll deal fine with the information thats there and they will need no one to explain meanings to them. Without this ability to think through, understand and refine their own positions on the side of the recipients, the most best-meaning "unbiased information" is by necessity propaganda.

      there is nothing bad in media with a defined and declared standpoint, - as long as the people actually understand such standpoints, and their own, and can deal with the differences.

      There mere idea that something should be "standpointless" shows how estranged people have become from actual public political life.

      and this hopeless estrangement shows itself clearly in the later segment.

      Left to their own devices (the politicians) will just lie and tell us what we want to hear and then do whatever the wealthy tell them to do
      the politicians are not some robots or machines or other magical things with devices. They are the people themselves. Every one of us is one of them and they are us. This distinction may be popular but its already containing the demise of actual political thinking. If anyone here would be transformed into an elected representative over night, say as standin, then how would this magical transition happen that would make them suddeny tend to lie and be corrupt? It wouldnt. Thats simply bogus, an easy way out for people to run away from their responsibility for the people they have delegated.  

      This kind of fairytale suggestions of improvement of the political landscape is anything but helpful, its just sucking up and neutering peoples dream energies.

      •  And I think I am trying to make the point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        marsanges

        that the ONLY balance of power is us, the voters. But if we are knocked off center, misinformed, bigoted etc. we cannot make good choices.

        It seems that all my life we have been bombing someone, teaching them a lesson. Every day I understand more deeply how violent we are. Violent to others and violent to ourselves. - Robert Olmstead

        by glitterscale on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 03:27:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  You are very right about the media. (0+ / 0-)

        As much as we might complain about the MSM these days, this is nothing compared to the partisan newspapers leading up to the Civil War.  They wore their biases on their sleeves.

        The most violent element in society is ignorance.

        by Mr MadAsHell on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 03:27:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  First paragraph - (0+ / 0-)

      it's PUBLIC education that is skimped on, and not always because of fiscal duress.

      For quite some time, education has become increasingly fragmented so that folks put their children in schools containing students whose parents share similar values and outlooks.  Unfortunately, the country has a whole loses, because there was a time when public education was one of the threads that held us together as a country.

      Now, folks put their kids in, say, Christian madrasas, or home school, or expensive, private prep schools or academies, and the kids grow up in an environment that gives them a very narrow exposure to the real world (yes, there is such a thing).  

      The most violent element in society is ignorance.

      by Mr MadAsHell on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 03:26:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Inequality is the persistent (11+ / 0-)

    Long term fundamental problem undermining politics and society. Until the politicians, economists come together to address inequality by raising minimum wage, increasing taxes on the rich and going after tax evaders, the decline of democracy and this nation will be inevitable. It would also be helpful if the excesses of the Finance sector could be heeled.

    A visual representation of inequality and it's long term impact on our society

    The Plutocracy of the United States is far more dangerous, as time will show, than is the Aristocracy of Europe ~ VM, 1926

    by cosmic debris on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 01:57:58 PM PDT

  •  It looks like we get 3 months of arguing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Meteor Blades

    about how much austerity the 99% get followed by an encore of October.

    If I project the debt limit extension based on the past couple years the next one should be about 3 weeks.

  •  Construction industry impacts (12+ / 0-)

    I've worked in the construction industry for 32 years, the last 21 of which have been on the construction materials manufacturing side.  What I'm hearing from specifying architects and civil engineers, and the contractors I sell to, is that they're very concerned about FY 2014--especially when it comes to construction work on military bases and airports, where funding shifts due to Sequestration have taken a toll already, and will take an even greater toll when January 15 rolls around.  Working as I do for a company that's gone through two bankruptcy restructurings in the last ten years, in an industry that's seen a fragile recovery at best, I can honestly say I'm nervous as hell.

    "Lock up your libraries if you like; but there is no gate, no lock, no bolt that you can set upon the freedom of my mind." --Virginia Woolf

    by Helen in NC on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:02:01 PM PDT

  •  thanks for your explanation of the '24 billion $' (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eric Nelson, Meteor Blades

    number ...someone said..'well it was spent somewhere'...

    This machine kills Fascists.

    by KenBee on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:04:45 PM PDT

  •  Robert Greenstein agrees and is warning.. (6+ / 0-)

    ..not to fall prey to the Paul Ryan adherents, which is where we stand right now on spending levels.
    Center on Budget & Policy Priorities | CBPP Statement: October 16, 2013
    For Immediate Release

    In the budget negotiations that the President and Congress have agreed to begin, they should pursue measures that promote a stronger economic recovery, improve the nation’s fiscal situation over the medium and long term, and do not increase poverty or inequality.

    Those negotiations hold both promise and risk.  The ill-timed sequestration cuts are slowing economic growth, worsening unemployment, and harming broadly supported public services.  That argues for replacing sequestration with a more balanced deficit-reduction package.  Some policymakers, however, may seek to replace sequestration with even more harmful cuts, including ones targeted on vulnerable Americans, or push for revenue-neutral tax reform, which would ignore the need for additional revenue to do its part in helping to address long-term deficits.

    A sound package that puts us on a more sustainable fiscal path, bolsters the economic recovery, and protects vulnerable Americans is possible.  Policymakers should strive for it.  At the same time, with near-term deficits on a downward trajectory, they should turn aside deals that do not meet these basic tests.  We hope that policymakers can bring some of the statesmanship that ultimately helped produce today’s deal to the coming negotiations and produce a broader agreement that’s sound in terms of both its immediate effects and its longer-term impacts.

     - emphasis added

    No time to ease off because of the latest progress in stopping the republicans. Hit it hard especially with interest rates so low, now is the time to invest.

    Thx MB

    P.S. Private sector shmivate sector. trickle down fairy dust voo-doo economices proven wrong over and over again.

    Dems would do well to point out republican supply side trickle down theory thoroughly documented failure over the years and remind people what does work - The New Deal -  remedies for 2014 this country needs - using our government to work for us - the people

    •  Deficits add to private sector income. Shrinking (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      a2nite, Mr MadAsHell

      the deficit is precisely the wrong thing to do right now.  CBPP is wrong about monetary operations.  The Govt's budget is not like a household budget.  The Govt needs to continually add new money to the economy through deficit spending to compensate for our growing population, the increasing number of goods and services produced due to productivity increases and the financial wealth that leaves the country ever year in exchange for goods and services via the trade deficit.

      MMT = Reality

      "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

      by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:33:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly what Robert Greenstein has been saying.. (0+ / 0-)

        ..for years now:

        deficit [reduction] is precisely the wrong thing to do right now.
        ..reading back through his writings tells of this.
        In fact Greenstein and Jarrod Bernstein warned that reduction of deficit at as fast a pace as it has been recently is the wrong remedy. I don't have the link at hand but a search @ CBPP will show this.

        And this:

        The Govt's budget is not like a household budget.
        ..is one of the messages that both Robert Greenstein and Jarrod Bernstein @ CBPP have been voicing for years.

        They have been on the forefront to teach of this btw

        •  I'm certainly not saying the CBPP are the bad guys (0+ / 0-)

          but in the statement you quoted, they say we should shrink the deficit.  Thats what I was referring to.  And I'm pretty sure they came out in favor of chained CPI, which of course would be absolutely terrible policy.  Although I may be wrong on that.  Feel free to show me.

          MMT = Reality

          "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

          by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:57:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for this. It's a welcome alt to the Yaybama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CitizenOfEarth

    fest that's festooned the pages over the last 24 hours. It ain't over yet, and in my view, the Dems "victory" was just them doing what they should have been doing all along.

    Now, if we get sold out by them, they will own it.

    "Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob." -- Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by Kombema on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:09:58 PM PDT

    •  Excuse me...................... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, doraphasia

      You refer to Dems, and them and they and, "yaybama" which begs the question "what are you"?  I realize it's not required that you be a Democrat to participate here but this is a Democratic blog so I can't help but wonder what you hope to accomplish by disparaging the attitudes of Kossacks who are pleased with the President's standing firm on the shutdown and debt limit?

      Proud to be a Democrat

      by Lying eyes on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:22:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  One does not have to be a Yaybama fan to be here, (0+ / 0-)

        nor does being critical of the Democratic Party preclude one from being a Democrat -- and any assumptions to the contrary is part of the problem with the knee-jerk partisan set that often excuse damn near anything the Dems/White House do.

        So unless you are in the Yay or do-no-wrong crowd, your display of insult is pretty inappropriate. I disparage -- read criticize -- NOT those who celebrate a temporary victory, but those who think that it is more than temporary, or trust the Democrats to do right by the middle and working classes. The Grand Bargain (cut in SS and Medicare, acceptance of record low levels of gov't spending, and failure to raise taxes on the rich) will be bad for the country, but the Dems have been telegraphing or saying outright for years that that's what they intend to implement.

        So there's lots to criticize. Doesn't mean it's not "family."

        "Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob." -- Franklin D. Roosevelt

        by Kombema on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 05:24:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The top priority for progressives (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Don midwest

    should be a raise in the minimum wage.  That would do more for Main Street economic growth than just about anything else.  A higher minimum wage would reduce gov expenditure naturally by reducing the numbers who use gov assistance to survive, thus lowering the deficit by cutting expenditures.  A higher minimum would push up wages overall, increasing the take in income taxes and thus lowering deficits on the income side.  A higher minimum wage would increase business for many firms by increasing demand in the economy, thus increasing confidence and incidentally, Fed proceeds from business taxes.  What progressives need to do is this first, and then push for IRS budget increases.  Every IRS dollar spent brings in 1.50 or so in revenue (from memory, it could be more).  Do this to really cut the budget.  But, in the next round, also push Republicans to accept that IF the deficit drops "significantly" (say 10% below current forecast) over the next six months, then Congress will implement enhanced infrastructure spending.  In any case, we need to say NO CUTS without a Minimum wage increase.  No minimum wage hike, no deal, and that's the deal.

    America needs a UNION NEWS channel. We (unions) have the money, we have the talent. Don't buy 30 second time slots on corporate media, union leaders; fund your own cable news channel and tell the real story 24/7/365

    by monkeybrainpolitics on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:11:34 PM PDT

    •  The deficit is the difference between the amount (0+ / 0-)

      of money the Govt adds to the economy through spending and the amount of money the Govt removes from the economy through taxation.

      With full time unemployment at ~13%, how could anybody say that the economy has too much money in it so therefore we should stop adding so much through the Govt's deficit?

      MMT = Reality

      "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

      by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:30:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Adam Smith - unskilled wage shows economy health (4+ / 0-)

      The "God" of economics is often taken to be Adam Smith.

      Here is what he has to say about this:

       

      Among Adam Smith’s many insights, one deserves special attention. It is his observation that the condition of unskilled wages is a reliable indicator of the overall health of an economy. In his words:

       

      The liberal reward of labor, therefore, as it is the necessary effect, so it is the natural symptom of increasing national wealth. The scanty maintenance of the laboring poor, on the other hand, is the natural symptom that things are at a stand, and their starving condition that they are going backwards fast.
      The wages of unskilled workers are the canary in the coal mine. As Adam Smith warned in the quote above, when these wages stop growing it is a sign the economy has ground to a halt. When they are falling, it is a sure bet the economy is shrinking and in serious trouble.
      In our county, wages are going backwards.

      Quotations from "Worse Than You Think: The Real Economy Hidden Beneath Washington's Rigged Statistics and Where To Go From Here" by Keith Quincy

  •  Tragically, Team Bush didn't pay a dime.. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    3goldens, Odysseus, a2nite, pat bunny

    ..let alone time (in prison) for bankrupting the nation financially and morally. They killed hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqi men, women, and children when they LIED their way to BS wars. Not to mention American lives and treasure.

    They ain't sweating 24 billion.

    What is so unnerving about the candidacy of Sarah Palin is the degree to which she represents—and her supporters celebrate—the joyful marriage of confidence and ignorance. SAM HARRIS

    by Cpqemp on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:13:40 PM PDT

    •  Its impossible for the nation to be bankrupt. (3+ / 0-)

      We have our own sovereign currency (the US dollar) that we create by fiat.  The US Dollar does not exist in nature.  It is man-made.  We can't ever run out of dollars.

      MMT = Reality

      "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

      by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:28:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Too bad Zimbabwe didn't figure that out. (0+ / 0-)

        They'd be the richest nation on the planet -- if only they kept printing more billion dollar notes.


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        by Pluto on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:43:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Comparing Zimbabwe to the USA tells us just (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Pluto, Mr MadAsHell

          as little about reality as comparing the USA to Somalia when it comes to market regulations.  However, it does prove my point, that there is no such thing as running out of money or the nation going bankrupt as you described it.  

          Inflation is not simply an increase in the money supply.  Its the change over a period of time between 2 ratios.  The total amount of money SPENT / the total amount of goods and services for SALE.  This gets us the price level.  And then inflation is calculated by comparing the price level at two different points in time.  Here's a good example.

            Imagine an economy of two people that produces 10 apples a year.  And there are $10 in the economy.  The price level is 10 apples / $10.  Now lets say that productivity increases allow these two to produce 20 apples.  If the amount of money stays the same, we have deflation: 20 apples / $10.  If the money supply grows in an equal amount with productivity, inflation is zero: 20 apples / $20.  If the money supply grows faster than the production of goods and services, we get inflation: 20 apples / $25 dollars.  So creating money does not by itself guarantee inflation, its a ratio.  Furthermore, inflation doesn't care about whether its Govt making the money or the private sector making the money.  So if we tamp down on unstable private sector debt = money creation, and substitute the stability of Govt money, we will all be better off.  And inflation is not something to worry about solely because the money is coming from the Govt and not the private sector.  It doesn't matter where the money comes from.

          http://www.dailykos.com/...

          MMT = Reality

          "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

          by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:56:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Good examples. (0+ / 0-)

            BTW, how does the private sector increase the nation's money supply via debt?

            Furthermore, inflation doesn't care about whether its Govt making the money or the private sector making the money.  So if we tamp down on unstable private sector debt = money creation....
            Or am I reading that wrong?


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            by Pluto on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 03:05:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Oh. When private banks extend loans, that expands (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Pluto

              the money supply.  Here's a breakdown of the accounting:

              Person A takes out a loan from Bank B:
              Person A's deposit or checking account +1000 (asset)
              Person A's promissory note                   +1000 (liability)

              Bank B's liabilities (technically they owe you the amount in your deposit account)                            +1000 (liability)
              Bank B's loan contract is a financial asset to them
                                                                             +1000 (asset)

              When they do this, nobody else's account gets a corresponding debit.
              If I lent you my money.  You would be able to use my $1000 but I could not, until you started to pay me back.
              But when a bank makes a loan, there is nobody else that can't use their own funds.  Especially now with FDIC insurance and all the Govt guarantees in place through the Fed to ensure financial system stability.

              Now at this point, the bank "owes" reserves at the Fed (assuming they had no excess reserves before they made the loan).  The Fed requires the bank to have reserves equal to 10% (its technically much less but this is the 101 version) to their new loan, and they have up to 2 weeks to acquire the required reserves.  

              They can get the reserves from 3 places:
              1)  They can sell some of the stock of T-bonds and the Fed will give them reserves if the Fed buys the bond, otherwise if they sold the bond to someone else, the Fed would transfer the new T-bond owners reserves into Bank B's reserve account

              2)  They can borrow reserves on the interbank lending market.  This is the basis for the Federal Funds interest rate that the Fed sets.

              3)  They can borrow reserves from the Fed itself.  This is by far the least used process since the banks actually pay a penalty rate for using the so-called Fed window.

              In other words, banks extend credit, and that credit is accepted as money.  About 97% of all money exists as bank deposits (if you don't consider T-bonds money, which many of us do).  And the banks don't give that stuff away.  Either you have to deposit cash, transfer existing bank deposits from another or someone else's account, or you can have them make you some for a price (take on debt).  Banks don't ever give bank deposits away for free (unless they come from deficit spending, but thats another story.)

              MMT = Reality

              "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

              by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 03:24:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Thanks . Are we touching on fractional lending (0+ / 0-)

                ...here?

                I like your articles. Very accessible. Hope to see more of you.


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                by Pluto on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 03:52:37 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Thank you (0+ / 0-)

                  And in a sense, yes.  Although today's system is different than the traditional fractional reserve banking that is described in econ 101 textbooks.  But the principle is the same.

                  MMT = Reality

                  "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

                  by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 04:36:09 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Very good take. (0+ / 0-)

            Thanks for refreshing some of my economics classes (my major, years ago).

            The most violent element in society is ignorance.

            by Mr MadAsHell on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 03:32:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  I was astonished by the Prez's (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CitizenOfEarth, 3goldens, Jim P, Pluto

    statement today that he and others in govt were elected to "grow the economy."  

    No.  The purpose of govt. is to protect the people from theft and harm.  We do not rely on economic growth as the mainstay of our society and we don't need the govt to make that its first principle for existence.  Perhaps it is this paradigm that has gotten us precisely where we are.  This is a conversation we need to have forthwith.

    He who would trade liberty for security deserves great customer service.

    by Publius2008 on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:14:09 PM PDT

    •  A sustainable economy is not one that requires... (5+ / 0-)

      ...growth per se. But it does require innovation and repair.

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:21:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  We'll have neither that conversation (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Pluto

      nor the one about our foreign strategy of global hegemony by dint of arms and threat.

      Which itself accounts for all the deficits and all the debt.

      But we live in a demockcrazy where nobody in public life will even raise what you bring up or the Eternal War of National Suicide.
       


      Actual Democrats: the surest, quickest, route to More Democrats. And actually addressing our various emergencies.

      by Jim P on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:33:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Add this to the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    3goldens, Eric Nelson, Pluto

    $74 million they threw away doing their 42 bullshit votes in congress to repeal the ACA.

    "If fighting for a more equal and equitable distribution of the wealth of this country is socialistic, I stand guilty of being a socialist." Walter Reuther

    by fugwb on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:17:30 PM PDT

  •  Is this a communist website? (0+ / 0-)

    ?

  •  reducing gains in the 4th q economy is a plus (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aquarius40

    as far as the gop is concerned. that's just gravy.

  •  The ravenous defense spending monster (6+ / 0-)

    ...along with absurdly low tax rates by global standards -- will swallow Americans whole over time.

    I wish it were more complex than that.

    It would be really fun to discuss national investments in human capital, infrastructure, culture even. But domestic development is so far from our path that American companies must now import their engineers and scientists from other countries, that do invest in human capital.

    Half of all government spending goes to the largely privatized defense industry. And that is not nearly enough. More has to come from somewhere, (other than taxes). The nation's rich resources are privately owned and it has no nationalized wealth. So the only obvious target is social spending.

    I don't think we can stop the defense monster and its global domination adventurers. They pretty much own the place.

    From the time of Reagan, all economic kabuki over borrowing and budgets comes down to this singular hunger. Even the most recent ones.

    Best bet is to live in a civilization without a domestic cannibalizing policy to maintain a global hegemony -- a place where benefiting the people is the first priority of government.


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    by Pluto on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:24:01 PM PDT

  •  Meteor Blades, I wish I could T and R your (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pat bunny

    fine post.  But when you say financing these investments with more Govt borrowing, you lost me.  The Govt issues T-bonds (a Govt liability), and pays redeems them with another Govt liability (Cash or deposits to be more accurate).  All money is a liability of the Govt because the Govt will always accept it as tax credits.  There is no collateral like private debt.  If you don't pay your mortgage, the bank will take your house or car if you have a car note.  Nobody is entitled to a piece of the capital building because you decided to buy a savings bond.  

    The Govt can issue T-bonds when running a surplus just like they did during the terribly Clinton surplus years for the SS "trust fund".

    Govt can issue money without issuing T-bonds if they wanted.  There is no physical barrier to crediting the Fed's balance sheet, its only an authority thing.  T-bonds used to be important because cash was a claim on the country's limited stock of gold, so T-bonds were a way to entice people to take the guaranteed interest in lieu of potentially draining the nation's gold reserves.  However, the gold standard ended (for the 2nd time) in August of 1971 (42 YEARS AGO!!!).  Now T-bonds serve to soak up the excess reserves that are created when the Govt deficit spends.  Thats why QE drives the interest rates to zero.  If there are excess reserves at the Fed, then banks can't charge each other anything to borrow them.  If the Govt didn't issue T-bonds, it would be exactly like a never ending QE.  The net amount of reserves at the Fed would increase by whatever the amount of the deficit was and thus interest rates would always be zero (unless the Fed paid interest on reserves).  

    There is no logical or technical way for the Govt to borrow its own money from the citizens.  The Govt issues T-bonds, which are held as financial wealth by the Non-Govt.  And then the Govt credits a SS recipients bank account.  Thats a NET plus.  There are no debits for the private sector when the Govt deficit spends.  

    When people think the Govt is in debt, the republicans have power.  When people think deficits are bad, the Republicans gain power.  We need to break this mythology and what better place to start than here in the Kossack community?

    MMT = Reality

    "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

    by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:25:37 PM PDT

    •  Agreed mostly - I have issues with MMT theory (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Meteor Blades

      when the current obligation on debt becomes a very problematic expense for the nation.  It is possible for it to get too high - but we are far, far, far away from that.  And if you can borrow in your own currency, it is very very hard to get into a true disaster.

      •  But nobody knows when that would ever be a problem (0+ / 0-)

        The Fed sets the interest rate, so the interest expense (I assume thats what you are talking about) is a policy decision.  Furthermore, here is a good graphical breakdown of just who has their financial wealth in T-bonds:

        http://www.npr.org/...

        An increase in interest income would be great for private sector pension funds, municipal and state pension funds, household and businesses, state and local Govt's, people who own mutual funds.  Military retirement programs.  The SS and medicare funds.  Foreign Govt's (I only include this because the trade deficit is a huge advantage for us IMO, but I recognize that many people disagree with me on that).

        In the list of people undeserving of increased interest income, I would include the banks, brokers, credit unions, insurance companies, etc.

        So you can see that less interest income isn't nearly so black and white a bad thing as one might expect at first glance.  

        Onemore thing, we are spending less on interest income as a % of the budget today than we did during the Clinton surplus years.

        And finally, since T-bonds are the savings of the non-Govt, if you think we should issue less of them (a smaller deficit) then you are simultaneously saying that the non-Govt has too many safe financial assets.

        MMT = Reality

        "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

        by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:41:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I am not disagreeing with you - it is a view with (0+ / 0-)

          some merit.  I just need to think more about it.  Either way, either there is no "crisis" possible or not one on the horizon.  As far as current policy prescriptions go, we're on the same wavelength.  

          •  Thanks, I was just using the opportunity you (0+ / 0-)

            provided to post the link to that awesome graph from NPR.  I wasn't trying to argue with you.  I was just as surprised by the composition of T-bond ownership as anyone so I figured I'd get it out there for the community to see.

            MMT = Reality

            "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

            by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 03:05:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  P.S. And I do agree that having one's own (0+ / 0-)

          sovereign fiat currency makes a lot of the perceived problems go away, especially one with the power of ours.  The European periphery has been handcuffed by comparison and it has shown.  

          •  definitely. I was reading a disturbing article (0+ / 0-)

            by the IMF the other day (damn, I didn't save the link!) about how their economic policies are working perfectly.  They were talking about how the periphery was getting more "competitive", a clear euphemism for wage and standard of living cuts, and that was going to allow them to become bigger exporters as the pathway back to growth.  And in a sense, I guess they are right, if you are using a currency you don't control (just like state and local Govts here at home) you have no choice but try and export, or receive external funding (subsidies) just like all of our red states do.

            MMT = Reality

            "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

            by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 03:08:38 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I am overall in agreement with MMT... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Eric Nelson, Mr MadAsHell

      ...but I also know that very very few people accept it. So, for now, just getting the policies I outlined in skeletal form pushed is about the best I think can be done. And that by suggesting we fund them just as we did World War II.

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:38:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hear you Blades, the reality of monetary (4+ / 0-)

        operations can certainly be overwhelming to people hearing it for the first time.  Thats because the people have been so badly misinformed by so many for so long.  Going off the gold standard was one of the biggest events in American history and yet very few people changed their understanding when the paradigm shift occurred.  Its amazing actually.  But its clearly understood when described as succinctly and concisely as the great John Galbraith did in this Nation post I've quoted before.

        "For ordinary people, public budget deficits, despite their bad reputation, are much better than private loans. Deficits put money in private pockets. Private households get more cash. They own that cash free and clear, and they can spend it as they like. If they wish, they can also convert it into interest-earning government bonds or they can repay their debts. This is called an increase in "net financial wealth." Ordinary people benefit, but there is nothing in it for banks.

        And this, in the simplest terms, explains the deficit phobia of Wall Street, the corporate media and the right-wing economists. Bankers don't like budget deficits because they compete with bank loans as a source of growth. When a bank makes a loan, cash balances in private hands also go up. But now the cash is not owned free and clear. There is a contractual obligation to pay interest and to repay principal. If the enterprise defaults, there may be an asset left over--a house or factory or company--that will then become the property of the bank. It's easy to see why bankers love private credit but hate public deficits."

        http://www.dailykos.com/...

        MMT = Reality

        "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

        by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:46:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  But one way to start might be for us to start (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mr MadAsHell, Larsstephens

        subtly changing the language.  For too long, the right has dominated the conversation through Frank Luntz type messaging.  Debt is bad.  Deficits are bad etc.

        Instead of saying borrowing, maybe try to say "issue more T-bonds" or "savings bonds"  Refer to the national debt whenever possible as the "national savings".  Or work in the word "contribution" to the private sector when referencing the deficit.  You are truly one of the good guys, and I certainly am not trying to harp on you.  But if we can't start to change the paradigm and reframe the debate here in our community, how can we expect to start to do the same with the broader public?

        MMT = Reality

        "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

        by Auburn Parks on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:49:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think you are right about this. (0+ / 0-)

          I remember reading a few issues of "The Progressive" back in the early eighties, and many of the stories, which I'd never seen covered in the mainstream press, did eventually surface as main stream stories when the public was ready for them, so reframing the perception of the deficit could work the same way if it is attempted.

          •  You're right, baby steps are necessary. (0+ / 0-)

            The right has been perfecting its propaganda for decades.  But we can't finish if we never begin.

            MMT = Reality

            "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

            by Auburn Parks on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:47:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  So crisis postponed until Jan 15 (0+ / 0-)

    What will the pols do with this time I wonder?

    We'll know more in a couple weeks when the new Catfood Budget Commission gets staffed and announces their plan to make Un-Rig America.


    No longer Hoping for Change. Now Praying for a Miracle. 🍞 & 🎪

    by CitizenOfEarth on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:27:59 PM PDT

  •  There are idiots among us ... who are trying (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CitizenOfEarth

    to pounce on this dysfunction and opportunity.  Some of them are very close to the White House ...

    That is the force that needs to be fought.  We can do an end zone dance that the yahoos in the Tea Party looked like a bunch of schmucks.  But it is the chin-stroking Serious People who can destroy the middle class with approving nods from the beltway chat shows that John McCain loves appearing on.  

  •  Rick Perry encouraging Texans to sign up for (0+ / 0-)

    Obamacare...and to make it even more important that they do so soon, he's killing his own high-risk program on January 1.  

    What a fucking asshole.  Of course, he still isn't accepting the Medicaid expansion.

    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

    by darthstar on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:37:36 PM PDT

  •  Here's a constructive suggestion. (0+ / 0-)

    It cost us $24 billion to engage in this street theater performance.  

    How about, next time, we just give them all $23 billion dollars, free and clear, and a plane at the DC airport to take them to any country they want where they can live in luxury.  I suppose we could give it all to Ted Cruz, but that might make the others jealous, so let them divvy it up, maybe twelve billion for Ted, because he showed so much initiative, and a couple hundred million for each of his minions.  

    We should run this by the CBO, but by my calculations, if we had done that, we would be a billion dollars ahead of where we are now, right?

  •  Let's drive a stake into the heart of Reaganomics (4+ / 0-)

    Republicans are the ones who made the deficit explode, gave away the Clinton budget surplus to the rich. They only 'worry' about the national debt and the deficit when it comes time to cut the programs Democrats favor.

    Robert Parry over at Consortium News has put together a summary of the disaster Reaganomics has been, and continues to be.

    Here's a sample - go read the whole thing.

    The U.S. political/media process seems resistant to the one of most obvious lessons of the past three decades: Simply put, Reaganomics didn’t work. As George H.W. Bush once commented – when he was running against Reagan in the 1980 primaries – it is “voodoo economics.”

    Yet, the fact that the United States has embraced “voodoo economics” for much of the past three-plus decades and refuses to recognize the statistical evidence of Reaganomics’ abject failure suggests that the larger lesson of this era is that the U.S. political process is dysfunctional, a point driven home by the recent Tea Party-led government shutdown and threatened debt default.

    In the decades that followed Reagan’s 1980 election, the Right has invested ever more heavily in media outlets, think tanks and attack groups that, collectively, changed the American political landscape. Because of Reagan’s sweeping tax cuts favoring the rich, right-wing billionaires, like the Koch Brothers and Richard Mellon Scaife, also had much more money to reinvest in the political/media process, including funding the faux-populist Tea Party.

    "No special skill, no standard attitude, no technology, and no organization - no matter how valuable - can safely replace thought itself."

    by xaxnar on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:49:48 PM PDT

    •  This really is the key... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Eric Nelson, xaxnar

      who needs reality when you have enough money, access, influence and power to create your own then buy the media empire to share it with the world???

      thanks for that link

      Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

      by a gilas girl on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 03:05:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  come the 2014 mid term election cycle (0+ / 0-)

    i would love to see this number come back, in ad form, and have the ndcc run it in every district of every member who was behind this travesty.

    a billion and a half dollars. every. damn. day.

    this is fiscal responsibility? this is being a deficit hawk. yeah. um ... not havin' it.

    "i hear you're mad about brubeck ... i like your eyes. i like him too." -donald fagen

    by homo neurotic on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:54:10 PM PDT

  •  Long view? The GOP starts lobbying SCOTUS (0+ / 0-)

    to kill Citizens United to minimize the all-out Democratic (and especially Tea Party) bludgeoning their candidates will deservedly receive over the next 12-36 months.

    In my perfect world anyway.

    Fuck me. It's a leprech... oh wait, it's just Newt.

    by here4tehbeer on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 02:57:18 PM PDT

  •  Wait till sequester II hits in January. (0+ / 0-)

    Slower economic growth and more unemployment, both directly and indirectly.

  •  Ok, now I am (again) so confused! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FoundingFatherDAR

    Who started the War of Christmas again?

    The most violent element in society is ignorance.

    by Mr MadAsHell on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 03:14:26 PM PDT

  •  On a district by district basis (0+ / 0-)

    Every Dem candidate for Congress needs to get down to the specifics of how their individual districts were affected by this ridiculous shutdown; from the restaurant outside the gate at Yellowstone, to the thousands of government workers in Northern Virginia, to the families who had children who were not able to get cancer treatment at NIH.

  •  How Mark Zandi can be considered an (0+ / 0-)

    expert on anything still amaze me. He had no voice when Moody's was rating bad mortgages as gold to sell to pension funds, and the rest of the world.

    I think that if we had a government like Teddy Roosevelt had banksters and rating companies would have many of their employee's in jail.    

  •  What you are seeing is (0+ / 0-)

    The 1% managed to deprive the federal government  of billions of dollars.  Now the big push to further privatize the fed will begin.  Politically the GOP lost, but in the long term the 1% are going to see this as a win.  And ultimately that is what matters most to those who run Washington.

  •  Consequences (0+ / 0-)

    "the government shutdown... in 16 days it ripped $24 billion out of the U.S. economy."
    Gee. That's more than 1/10th of 1% of the national debt! Which is more important?
    Hmmm.

    "It does not take a majority to prevail... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." Samuel Adams

    by Fungi2bewith on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 10:09:28 PM PDT

  •  Slump in economic growth (0+ / 0-)

    Yes, undoubtedly i agree with the author regarding the possibility that we will face the next wave of economic fluctuations, however, please, remember that the growth of global economy, whose the main driving force is american economy, is undermined different global problems as political instability, corruption, etc. Some list of problems concerned with this article is presented

  •  Cost of Shutdown (0+ / 0-)

    At about $1.5B per day, I wonder if this approximation includes all the ripple effects.  When Obama bailed out GM and Chrysler, at least there was some talk about how ancillary industries were affected, and how many more than just the workers in the GM and Chrysler plants suffered.   While both producers are greatly changed from what they were before the bailout, bankruptcy, as advocated by Romney (read that as conservative right) would have been disastrous.  So the $24B estimate for the 16 day shutdown is really just an estimate, an educated guess, and nothing more.

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