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I've set up a Google Docs spreadsheet devoted to keeping track of the official ACA/Obamacare signup numbers as they're reported by the states running their own exchanges (as well as other reputable sources).

The HHS Dept. has stated that they aren't planning on releasing any official numbers for the still-massively-screwed-up federal exchange (Healthcare.gov), so this will have to serve for the moment. If and when someone else starts tracking these numbers on a regular basis, I'll be happy to give up this effort, but until then, it's at least something.

Here's the place to go; I'll be compiling the numbers as they come in, to the best of my ability, at the following link:

ObamacareSignups.net
The blue states are the ones that are running their own exchanges; the rest are all run by the Federal site (Healthcare.gov), although it looks like 2 states (Idaho and New Mexico) will be moving to their own next year, and Utah has it's own site for business signups only. Interestingly, it turns out that the territories (American Samoa, Puerto Rico, etc.) aren't covered by the ACA at all.

So far, 2 weeks in, according to the listed sources, the current tally stands at 363,392 458,419 people (or households?) actually applied for actual health insurance policies through the exchanges.

However, I'll need your help. I'd appreciate it if 15 people (one for each state exchange, plus D.C.) could volunteer to check the media in each of those states for the latest official (hopefully accurate) figures on how many people have actually signed up for a healthcare policy via the ACA (as opposed to just creating an account at the website, which doesn't count).

Oregon and Washington State will be tracked by rsmpdx.

Maryland will be tracked by dadadata.

Colorado will be tracked by MotherShipper.

California will be tracked by ybruti.

Note: CJB has just volunteered to cover Nevada, thanks!

Here's the other states I need covered; If you're interested in assisting, email me at cgaba (at) brainwrap (dot) com, thanks!

--Connecticut
--District of Columbia
--Hawaii
--Kentucky
--Massachusetts
--Minnesota
--New York
--Rhode Island
--Vermont

Yesterday's big news was out of Oregon, where the actual website exchange is still down, but state officials have announced that a whopping 56,000 additional residents have been signed up for Medicaid thanks to the Affordable Care Act. While my chart was intended to tally those who sign up for private plans via the exchanges, it doesn't really matter as long as people without any coverage are gaining affordable, decent healthcare coverage, so I'm counting it.

A few other notes:

--Since not every story with an update will come out on a Tuesday, I'm just going with "Week 1", "Week 2" and so on. Any updates that come out from 10/15-10/21 will be listed under Week 2; from 10/22-10/28 Week 3 and so on.

--Some of the stories list "households", others list "residents" or "people". In cases where they list the number as a "household" (but it's a reliable number), I'll multiply by 2.6 (which, according to the Census Bureau, is the average number of people in a U.S. "household" these days).

--Remember that the 458,000 figure only includes info on the states that have actually released their numbers.

--Also important: This number only includes people who have actually fully completed the signup process. In many cases there are thousands of pending applications, either online or printed paper, waiting to be processed. And no, I'm not entirely sure what definition of "signed up for" to use, but I am including people who are legally signed up but haven't started paying premiums yet--if I'm signed up for Comcast but haven't actually put a check in the mail yet, they still count me as a customer, after all (well, until they send a collection agency after me, but that's a different issue).

--The magic number is 7 million, and the date for that magic number is March 30, 2014.  That's the number that the Obama administration has been openly touting as their goal for the first 6 months of the exchanges; apparently, if they hit that mark, the law should be financially successful; if they fall short, it probably won't (at least not initially). Of course, it also depends on who signs up--ideally, they want a good chunk of those 7 million to be young, healthy folks (the type unlikely to actually use too many healthcare services), to shore up the cost of the rest of us.

To hit 7 million in 6 months, they'll have to average at least 270,000 signups per week. However, the signup numbers will fluctuate greatly depending on the time (expect a spike in signups as we approach Dec. 15th), so I'm not too concerned...yet.

Yesterday the official New York State of Health Twitter account posted the following:

Unfortunately, they don't have an actual press release yet with details, but I'm going to assume that "have qualified for health insurance" means that they've completed their applications and have had their income levels verified. While they may not have all actually selected a plan, I'm counting it until the powers that be give a more formal definition to use.

That brings NY's tally up from 40,000 to 100,000, which means an extra 60,000 to the national figure!

Today (Friday) has seen some significant updates to both the spreadsheet and the figures, including:

--I've taken ownership of the spreadsheet by adding "by brainwrap" to the site (I debated about whether to do this or not, but screw it)

--I've added links to 3 other sources which are trying to track the number of signups, although all of them have lower numbers than I list: 50,000 (Daily Briefing), 156,000 (Aaron Strauss), 185,000 (Sarah Kliff's WonkBlog). It really depends on what you (or the state, or the media source) define as "applied", "approved", "enrolled" or "signed up". It also depends on whether you include Medicaid expansion or not (in my case, I'm doing so, which no doubt explains much of the higher total).

--Maryland has released their latest tally (PDF), which includes both exchange signups as well as Medicaid expansion numbers...and now sits at over 84,000 people with health coverage!

--Here's a great article that explains the situation with the state-run websites, which have fared far better than the disasterous Healthcare.gov

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Comment Preferences

  •  w00t! That means 500K in Oct. is very doable (8+ / 0-)

    I read somewhere that they were shooting for half a million in the first month. Great news. Thanks, Brainwrap! :)

    I ♥ President Barack Obama.

    by ericlewis0 on Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 01:31:23 PM PDT

  •  I can't commit to (8+ / 0-)

    keeping an eye on Connecticut, but here are the numbers as of Oct. 15, broken down into types of coverage:

    Of the 3,847 individuals who signed up for coverage through Access Health CT between Oct. 1 and Oct. 15, 1,857 enrolled in Medicaid; 93 in CHIP for children; 772 in private plans without a subsidy and 1,125 in private plans with a subsidy.
    There's supposed to be sign up events in 18 cities -- I hope mine is one because I'm having a bit of trouble with the income section -- I'm self employed -- maybe I just have to go back in and look at it again.  My income isn't consistent month to month.

    " My faith in the Constitution is whole; it is complete; it is total." Barbara Jordan, 1974

    by gchaucer2 on Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 01:51:42 PM PDT

  •  I'm anxious to sign up, and (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MidwestTreeHugger, Sylv

    I'm in California, with a good website and program, but, CoveredCA had to pull its doctor lists (inaccuracies), and one of the insurers I'm researching has not published its 2014 lists yet online. There are big price differences between insurers, and a lot depends on physician/hospital access. I can't compare until I can see the lists. (Blue Shield has its lists online; Blue Cross, not yet.)

  •  Updated Illinois Numbers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap

    14,000 applications submitted for Medicaid (up from 5,000).

    http://getcoveredillinois.gov/...

    •  Wait a minute...I thought Illinois was one of (0+ / 0-)

      ...the FEDERALLY-run states???

      According to Healthcare.gov it is:

      Health Insurance Marketplace in Illinois

      If you live in Illinois, you'll use this website, HealthCare.gov, to apply for coverage, compare plans, and enroll. Here’s what you need to know before you apply. You can also see if you qualify for lower costs and preview plans and prices. You’ll find out final costs and savings on Marketplace plans based on your specific situation when you apply.

      Is this yet another fuck-up on the part of Healthcare.gov, or did the state-run site just not launch for the first couple of weeks???
      •  It's a partnership exchange (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sherri in TX

        private insurance plans through federal exchange and medicaid (Application for Benefits Eligibility) through the state website.

        State officials are encouraged with the significant number of Illinoisans who have used the simple screening tool.  This user-friendly tool, found on the “How to Get Covered” tab of the home page, determines whether individuals are eligible for either private insurance in the Marketplace, or State Medicaid.  Medicaid has been expanded recently residents.  More than 100, 000 people have answered the six household questions and then been routed either to “ABE”, the State’s rebranded Medicaid page (Application for Benefits Eligibility) or to the Federal Marketplace (healthcare.gov) where they can shop among multiple options for private insurance.
        http://getcoveredillinois.gov/...

        Eventually, in future years I'm guessing Illinois will take over running the exchanges.

  •  It looks to me like the ACA is headed for success, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap

    despite all the glitches.

    ericlewis0 is correct when he states above that the Obama Administration was shooting for half a million sign-ups during the first month.  They probably expected the whole thing to be laden with errors in the beginning, although probably not this badly.

    It would also be logical to assume that those more desperate for healthcare are overrepresented in the first month or so and that younger and healthier folks will be more likely to sign up later, when the majority of the glitches on the exchange sites have been eliminated and things are running more smoothly.

    Tipped and recced.

    "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

    by Lawrence on Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 06:19:50 PM PDT

  •  Who are we counting? (0+ / 0-)

    Does this count those that sign up on healthcare.gov?  Some have created an account just to look at the plans and prices.  Some out of curiosity and some out of interest in buying.  

    The insurance companies report that many of these are duplicate attempts to sign up, sometimes triplicate, due to problems with the system.  

    Also reported is those that made it through the system have until a certain date to make up their mind.  That only about 10,000 people have actually signed up through the federal exchanges, according to sources with the various insurance companies operating on the federal exchanges.

    What I'm asking is:  aren't you counting chickens before they hatch, at least with regard to federal exchanges?  Your numbers are a factor of 40 higher than what's coming from insurance insiders.

  •  You can't count applications as signups (0+ / 0-)

    That's like counting the number of voter registration forms  filled out as election turnout. It's not the same. Actual enrollment numbers for health insurance exchanges will be much less than the number of applications filled out.

    Wish that wasn't the case...and I'm optimistic there will still be a lot of signups, but as of now these numbers are not correct.

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