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10:29 AM PT: AR-02: Wowza. I don't think anyone was expecting this when they woke up on Monday morning. Republican Rep. Tim Griffin, who serves Arkansas' Little Rock-based 2nd Congressional District, announced that he's retiring after just two terms in office. Griffin's decision is especially surprising given that he's just 45 years old, and his stated reason—the clichéd "spend time with my family"—is so thin that, combined with his age and short tenure, it just invites speculation as to his true feelings.

What's more, Griffin handily won this seat during the GOP wave of 2010 after Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder retired, and given that Mitt Romney easily carried the 2nd 55-43 last year, he would have been strongly favored for a third term next year. That makes Griffin's decision even more mystifying.

If you were politically active during the George W. Bush years, you'll remember Griffin as the Karl Rove acolyte who leveraged his hackish loyalty into an utterly undeserved appointment as U.S. Attorney—one that he secured, thanks to an extremely controversial loophole, without Senate confirmation. Immense pressure forced him to resign just six months later, so holding jobs only for short periods seems to be something of a pattern with him. At the very least, we know that this is not a terrific time to be a Republican member of the House.

And now, though, his seat will become a potential Democratic pickup, albeit a reach. Late last week, rumors surfaced that former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays would take a run at Griffith; on Monday, that crystallized a bit further, with MSNBC's Jessica Taylor saying Hays would announce a bid on Tuesday, according to an unnamed "Democratic source."

Other possible Democratic names include state Sen. David Johnson, state Rep. Tommy Thompson, businesswoman (and former state Rep.) Linda Tyler, state Secretary of Education Shane Broadway, former Lt. Gov. (and 2010 Senate candidate) Bill Halter, and Little Rock school board official Dianne Curry.

Republicans will definitely have the advantage when it comes to retaining this red-trending district, though. Some potential options are wealthy businessman and one-time George H.W. Bush aide French Hill and state Sen. David Sanders. Interest is likely to be high, so others will almost surely soon emerge.

Generally speaking, Democrats have performed much better in presidential rather than midterm elections in recent years, so 2014 turnout ought to lean in the Republican direction. But Arkansas is one of those places, like West Virginia, where Barack Obama was unusually unpopular, so Democrats might actually be better off without him exerting downward pressure at the top of the ticket.

If that turns out to be the case, Griffin may have just made life a lot more difficult for his party, especially if his premature retirement adds to the growing narrative that Republicans are starting to appear endangered in next year's elections. As always, we'll be following all developments here, so stick with Daily Kos Elections for our coverage of this unfolding race.

11:36 AM PT (David Jarman): Seattle mayor: There are two new polls in Seattle's mayoral race. One, from local firm Strategies 360, is right in line with other recent polls, with state Sen. Ed Murray leading incumbent Mike McGinn 51-34.  The other is significantly different from all the general election polls we've seen so far: it has McGinn within single digits of Murray, with Murray up 33-29. (Note that the McGinn number is about the same, but this poll has a lot more undecideds, who apparently when pushed harder all seem to end up on the Murray side.)

The latter poll is on behalf of KIRO-TV, but it's one of the most irresponsibly-reported polls ever (it's posted essentially as a Buzzfeed-style gallery, with no mention of the pollster, let alone the MoE and dates). One other possible explanation for the disparity is that the Strategies 360 poll is LVs while the KIRO poll is RVs; Strategies 360 finds (a la conventional wisdom about the race, but contra SurveyUSA -- though SUSA's young voter crosstabs are notoriously weird) that McGinn and Murray run about evenly about the 18-44 set while Murray dominates among older voters, so it's possible that younger voters aren't falling readily into the "likely voter" camp.

12:09 PM PT: Special Elections: Iowa HD-33 is an open Democratic seat located in Des Moines. The candidates are Democrat Brian Meyer, a member of the Des Moines city council, and Republican Michael Young, a veteran of the Marines. The seat went 67-31 for Obama in 2012, so an upset is unlikely. (Johnny Longtorso)

12:19 PM PT: SD-Sen: Local pollster Nielson Brothers has published a new survey showing Republican ex-Gov. Mike Rounds leading Democratic former congressional aide Rick Weiland 50-35 in South Dakota's open seat Senate race. That's very different from the 40-34 spread PPP recently found (though Nielson did not include Libertarian Kurt Evans, which PPP did), but it's similar to the 52-38 Rounds edge that Harper saw last month. However, Nielson's had a very poor track record in recent cycles, with extreme Democratic leans.

12:21 PM PT (David Jarman): Several more Arkansas 2nd district names, as the Great Mentioner kicks into high gear: on the Republican side, The Hill mentions ex-state Sen. Gilbert Baker (who lost the 2010 AR-Sen primary) and state Sen. Jason Rapert (known for racially inflammatory comments at a 2011 rally), while on the Democratic side, National Journal also mentions Conway mayor Tab Townsell.

12:23 PM PT: ID-Gov: Republican Gov. Butch Otter avoided a primary challenge when Rep. Raul Labrador backed down earlier this year, but he may get one anyway. State Rep. Russ Fulcher says he's formed an exploratory committee to take on Otter, whom he's pissed at for creating a healthcare exchange under the Affordable Care Act. Otter, however, hasn't yet announced whether he'll seek a third term, so Fulcher may just be positioning himself for a potentially open seat.

12:26 PM PT: MD-Gov: Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown just secured the backing of the Maryland State Education Association in his bid for governor. The MSEA is the state's largest teachers union, with 70,000 members. Brown faces state AG Doug Gansler and Delegate Heather Mizeur for the Democratic nomination.

1:16 PM PT: UT-04: If you saw Republican Mia Love's FEC report this past quarter, during which she raised $590,000, you might have initially gone "Wow!" But if you dug deeper, you also saw that she spent a monster $374,000, an exceptionally high burn rate this early in the cycle. And if you were very astute, you took a look at her expenditures and noticed that her biggest outlay was for "postage"—over $220,000 worth.

That tells us that Love is the latest victim/perpetrator of scammy direct-mail fundraising, an industry that regularly grabs hold of ultra-conservative Republicans (Allen West and Michelle Bachman are prime examples), inflating candidate fundraising hauls while simultaneously raking off the lion's share in "expenses" that pad the mail firms' bottom lines.

Most office-seekers who get sucked into this world are of the Some Dude variety, but Love is considered a legitimate contender. After narrowly losing to Dem Rep. Jim Matheson last year in a race she ought to have won, many of her fellow Republicans criticized her campaign. She claims to have made improvements, but the fact that she's using such scuzzball tactics calls that into question.

1:34 PM PT: NH-01, -02: UNH has never been a terribly reliable pollster, and they've often produced seriously head-scratching results. Their newest congressional numbers are a case in point. In New Hampshire's 1st District, they find Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter leading ex-Rep. Frank Guinta 48-32 and outgoing UNH business school dean Dan Innis 43-32. While I can believe that the tea-flavored Guinta would inspire some undecideds who might otherwise keep an open mind about Inn to instead side with CSP is, the real problem is UNH's 2nd District poll.

There, they have Dem Rep. Annie Kuster barely edging ex-state Sen. Gary Lambert 34-33. Not only is Kuster the stronger campaigner, and not only is the 2nd the bluer district, but Lambert is utterly unknown. So the notion that Kuster is in worse shape than Shea-Porter is tough to swallow, especially since New England College recently released polling that showed the exact opposite picture. It all just means you should treat UNH's data with the same skepticism they've always merited.

2:11 PM PT (Steve Singiser): U.S. House 2014: A pair of stories today by the same author (Politico's Alex Isenstadt) on somewhat disparate topics nevertheless add up to a common theme: maybe all this talk of a Democratic wave election in 2014 isn't just idle cheerleading.

First off, Isenstadt notes that the recent shutdown has led to a bumper crop of legitimate Democrats eyeing challenges to Republican incumbents. What separates this article from many of its recent predecessors is that Isenstadt is naming names. Though not all of them have made the full commitment, Isenstadt cites potentially first-tier Democratic challenges to Republicans like Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02, where attorney Bill Hughes Jr., the son of the former Congressman, has had a change of heart and looks likely to run), Kerry Bentivolio (MI-11, where law school dean Jocelyn Benson is considering a race), Jon Runyan (NJ-03, where the DCCC is apparently high on attorney Aimee Belgard), and Jackie Walorski (IN-02, where Notre Dame official Joe Bock is nearly in). Also noted: the Democrats have near-commits in a trio of potentially competitive House districts: AR-02 (N. Little Rock Mayor Patrick Hays), AR-04 (Clinton-era FEMA director James Lee Witt), and FL-13 (former state CFO and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink).

On the GOP end of the spectrum, Isenstadt also notes that the shutdown has also encouraged Republicans to run ... against Republican incumbents. Even casual elections junkies know, of course, that teabagging challengers have dispatched more electable Republicans in roughly half a dozen Senate races, helping the Democrats maintain their 55-45 majority in the chamber. Could the GOP's simmering civil war put some House seats into play in 2014? The prospects appear quite good, even at this early date.

2:28 PM PT (Steve Singiser): VA-Gov: As one might expect, there is a ton of election-related news out of Virginia today, and it is a rather relentless pile of suck for Republican gubernatorial hopeful Ken Cuccinelli:


  • Democrat Terry McAuliffe is out with a new ad featuring Vincent Callahan, a Republican who served four decades in the state House of Delegates. Callahan speaks directly to camera, laying out his bipartisan street cred, and then saying that he is endorsing McAuliffe. Since a huge part of McAuliffe's message is that Cuccinelli is even too conservative for many Republicans, these ads play well with his strategy.
  • In a brutal illustration of that theme, the very Republican editorial board of the Richmond Times-Dispatch, whose last Democratic endorsement may well have been Andrew Jackson (kidding...kidding...it was Chuck Robb a quarter-century ago), has issued their 2013 gubernatorial endorsement: no one. They did endorse in the Lt. Governor's race, siding with Democrat Ralph Northam. Meanwhile, another local paper, the Daily Progress in Charlottesville, tweaked Cooch further by endorsing ... Bill Bolling. Bolling, of course, is the state's current Republican Lt. Governor, who was brushed aside in the rush to coronate Cuccinelli and flirted with an independent bid.
  • It is not just conservative media outlets that appear to be chalking Cuccinelli off. National Journal reports that Republicans are making Attorney General nominee Mark Obenshain their firewall in the state, as they grow ever more fearful of a Democratic sweep. One organization, the Republican State Leadership Committee, has dumped over $1.3 million into the Obenshain effort in the last several weeks.
  • And, finally, in the name of spiking the ball, we have a BIG DOG ALERT! Bill Clinton will be heading out on the campaign trail next week, stumping for his old friend.

2:40 PM PT (David Jarman): Novo York autonomous okrug administrator: Comrades! The long struggle, indeed, is a long struggle, and we must be ever vigilant against revanchism! Scientists at the People's University of Quinnipiac have noted unforgivable backsliding among certain elements of the lumpenproletariat, as false consciousness continues to rear its head, no doubt thanks to increased propaganda expenditures by class traitor Joe Lhota. Regardless, the glorious victory of Bill de Blasiovich shall still be realized shortly, as the latest production reports place him in front of Lhota 68-24, down from 71-21 two weeks ago.

2:53 PM PT (David Jarman): Dark money: Need some numbers to put a quantifiable exclamation point on the GOP civil war? The Senate Conservatives Fund (which continues to lurch forward despite Jim DeMint's resignation from the Senate) raised by far its best fundraising month ever, raising $2.1 million in September amidst the shutdown ramp-up; that's two-thirds of what the establishment-based NRSC raised. Of course, the question remains whether they're spending effectively: SCF spent $523k on "non-candidate issue ads," $237k on telemarketing, and $224k on book purchases (in case you were ever wondering how much right-wing organizations spent on gaming the bestseller lists).

2:58 PM PT (David Jarman): AL-01: It's hard to tell whether Bradley Byrne, the more establishment-flavored candidate in the Republican runoff in AL-01's special election, is worried about Dean Young in the closing weeks or had just been saving up for a titanic finishing blow. At any rate, his new ad goes hammer and tong after Young, pointing out how most of the money from Young's Christian Family Association PAC ended up in Young's pocket, and closing with the tag line "WHAT KIND OF PERSON FOOLS CHRISTIANS FOR PROFIT?"

3:01 PM PT (David Jarman): FL-02: Florida's 2nd district is red enough that you wouldn't ordinarily think it'd be a top priority, but between a strong Dem challenger (Gwen Graham) and a particularly right-wing incumbent (Steve Southerland), it's taking center stage. House Majority PAC is out with a new ad hitting Southerland, and it's not just a video press release: it's a buy for $70,000, good for a two-week run in the cheap Tallahassee market.

3:10 PM PT (David Jarman): MS-Sen: The Club for Growth was one of the third-party groups that endorsed Republican state Sen. Chris McDaniel almost the same instant he announced his primary campaign against incumbent Thad Cochran (a septuagenarian who hasn't confirmed that he's running again), and now they're springing for an ad boosting McDaniel. It doesn't specifically mention Cochran, but rather serves to introduce McDaniel. No specific word on the size of the buy, other than "significant" and "six figures."

3:19 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-St. Sen.: The November special election in Washington's SD-26 (one where Daily Kos has gotten involved) is quickly turning in to the most expensive legislative election ever in Washington state; that's what happens when there's one single race where chamber control is (sort of) at stake. The latest total has the cumulative expenditures at over $2.5 million: while appointed Dem incumbent Nathan Schlicher has raised $472k and Republican challenger Jan Angel has raised $624k, the independent expenditures boost that. Dem billionaire Tom Steyer has now put in $525k into a pro-Schlicher PAC, which has raised nearly $1 million in all, while a pro-Angel PAC has raised more than $500k. (Both sides are running ads on broadcast TV, which you can see at the link.)

3:39 PM PT (David Jarman): WV-03: Maybe you noticed the Cook Report moving the race in West Virginia's 3rd district -- where long-time Dem Nick Rahall faces party-switching state Sen. Evan Jenkins against the backdrop of a district that Walter Mondale won but gave Barack Obama 33% in 2012 -- to "Tossup," the only R-friendly move out of 15 House races. Well, here's an internal poll that they probably saw last week that prompted the move; the poll for the Jenkins campaign, by Harper Polling, gives Rahall only a 46-42 lead against Jenkins. I'm actually a little heartened to see Rahall leading, period, but also factor in that Jenkins outraised Rahall last quarter, and you can see why this race may be one of the GOP's few bright spots in 2014.

4:30 PM PT: NRCC: Yep, the NRCC got their butts beat by the D-Trip last month. Republicans took in $5.3 million for their House committee in September, versus $8.4 million for Dems.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:00:13 AM PDT

  •  Rep. Tim Griffin (AR-02) retiring (21+ / 0-)

    According to Politico on Twitter.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:03:17 AM PDT

  •  IL-Gov: Somewhat old news. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rdw72777

    Quinn is or was considering the Treasurer of Chicago Stephanie Neely to be his running mate. This was reported last month and he has yet to pick a someone to be on his ticket. I think Neely has statewide ambition, but I'm not sure if this would be the best move. If anything, she should run for State Treasurer.

    http://www.nbcchicago.com/...

    •  Wouldn't IL-Treas be worse? (0+ / 0-)

      Being the main finance person for Illinois can't possibly be a good jumping off point for IL these days.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:07:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not her (0+ / 0-)

      I don't have a link, but a short while after that rumor surfaced she said a). Quinn had never talked to her and b). she wouldn't accept if he did ask her.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:35:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  thanks for this list of (0+ / 0-)

    remaining Mondays on which I have work before I go home.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:07:57 AM PDT

    •  I presume (0+ / 0-)

      You're coming back to do a diary on every single NJ state leg race, as per your bizarre addiction with that state.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:10:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I thought about a diary on PA races instead (0+ / 0-)

        but I decided it would be more fun to push your buttons.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:11:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  LOL (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sapelcovits

          Well the you could do both, NJ leg is next month and PA is Nov-2014.

          Get to work.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:15:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  MD-Gov: MSEA backs Brown (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    State's largest teacher's union.

  •  Reposting the new PPP polling from last night. (11+ / 0-)
    The districts surveyed this week in which a generic Democratic challenger leads prior to any information being provided about the shutdown are:

    CA-39, CA-49, CO-03, FL-07, FL-15, FL-25, IL-06, MI-03, NJ-05, NJ-11, OH-15,OH-16, PA-16, VA-05, WI-06

    The additional districts in which a generic Democratic challenger leads or ties after voters are told the Republican incumbent supported a shutdown are:

    MI-04, NJ-07, NY-22, OH-10, VA-04, WI-08

    The districts in which the incumbent Republican leads throughout the survey are:

    IL-16, OH-01, PA-15, VA-01

    http://www.scribd.com/...
    •  Dems need to be recruiting like crazy (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, bythesea, betelgeux

      to get quality candidates in all of these districts, and many more. 50 State Strategy, baby.

      I hope PPP keeps going with the next 20-25 GOP-held seats that have no public polling. Who knows which of these GOP incumbents have simply gone too far for their districts to stomach any longer.

      Filibuster reform, 2013 - woulda, coulda, shoulda.

      by bear83 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:43:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  FL-07: Brief Analysis (5+ / 0-)

      Mica may be underwater, which isn't entirely inconceivable to me, because my district has the potential to be pretty competitive. If I recall, Mitt Romney won it with less than 53% of the vote, and Mica only won re-election against an underfunded candidate with 59% of the vote. However, speaking from my knowledge of where I live, the tough part will be recruiting someone who can actually win. There are hardly any elected Democrats in Seminole County. The 2012 nominee, Jason Kendall, was actually one of them, because he was on the Seminole County Soil and Water Conservation District, which isn't exactly the right kind of experience, but it serves as a launchpad for (mainly Republican) ambitious politicians. Right now, the only person running is Nicholas Ruiz III, who, shall we say, is not exactly the right fit for the district. He lives outside of the district, in Volusia County, and he's wayyyyyyy too liberal for a district that voted for Romney. He ran in 2012 against Kendall and lost in the Democratic primary, receiving about 39% of the vote. I voted for him reluctantly (both candidates were poor, to be honest) but he absolutely cannot win. If Democrats could find a good local businessman to run, someone who could maybe self-fund a little bit, or if they could recruit someone like former Winter Springs Mayor Paul Partyka, who ran against then-Congresswoman Suzanne Kosmas in the 2010 Democratic primary, or if they could convince John Bush, also the former Mayor of Winter Springs, to switch parties and run as a Democrat, this could be competitive. If they really worked hard, they could maybe convince one of the two Democratic State Representatives from Seminole County, either Karen Castor Dentel or Mike Clelland, to run. But both Castor Dentel and Clelland were elected just last year, so this seems like too quick of a turnaround time to run for Congress. However, if Castor Dentel ran, she would probably have no trouble fundraising, because her sister, Kathy Castor, is a Congresswoman from Tampa, and her mother, Betty Castor (whom I met when I went to Castor Dentel's campaign announcement), was the 2004 Democratic nominee for the United States Senate.

      19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (Home). UCF junior, politically ambitious, and vocally liberal. Former username: tqycolumbia. "Still, where'd the lighter fluid come from?"

      by Tyler Yeargain on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:29:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Karen Castor Dentel (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Tyler Yeargain

        Seems like the kind of dream candidate Democrats would need, in addition to a wave, to take this district from Mica.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:50:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  She has a lot of potential. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, Christopher Walker

          She has a pretty good background, seeing as she was an elementary school teacher for a while, and has a PhD in education from the University of Florida. She's been House Democrats' go-to-person for education issues this session, and from everything I've heard, she's done pretty well. She can speak fluently about education, and she's not an advocate of charter schools, either. Plus, her familial connections mean that people all over have heard of her last name even if they haven't heard of her.

          Honestly, I don't think that she's likely to run next year, even though, in my opinion, I think that she could beat Mica if she ran. It's too soon, and she's in a relatively secure district without too serious of an opponent next year. It's a more Democratic-leaning district. The incumbent State Representative she defeated, Scott Plakon, actually didn't even live in the district but was pressured to run there to avoid a primary in the district that Mike Clelland ended up winning in. Now he's running against Clelland, so Castor Dentel is safe for now. She seems like a likely candidate in the event that Mica retires in the next decade, or, since she's young enough, she could make a run for the State Senate. Either way, she's got some serious star power and I think that she has a bright future.

          19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (Home). UCF junior, politically ambitious, and vocally liberal. Former username: tqycolumbia. "Still, where'd the lighter fluid come from?"

          by Tyler Yeargain on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:24:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I was impressed with Clelland's 2012 election (2+ / 0-)

        He managed to defeat the man who was going to be the next Speaker of the Florida House in a district that leans republican.  The guy can definately campaign.

        Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

        by ChadmanFL on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:55:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Clelland is a really impressive guy. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ChadmanFL, Christopher Walker

          I haven't met him myself, but a few people I know have and they find him particularly engaging and good with constituent services.

          I'm not sure if it says more about his abilities or about Chris Dorworth's failings that Clelland was able to beat Dorworth last year. For sure, Clelland has some pretty good political instincts, and he's got a pretty good story, too. Fireman-turned-lawyer? That's not common, and it allows him to connect with voters we might otherwise lose. But it was an exceptional chain of events that led to his victory: Dorwoth's incompetence, the support of a lot of the Central Florida establishment for Clelland, and the fact that the Obama campaign heavily, heavily targeted Central Florida.

          Clelland's not a sure bet for re-election next year, though, which is one of the reasons I don't want him to run against Mica. If he runs for Congress rather than re-election, we lose this seat. He's got a pretty strong opponent lined up in former State Representative Scott Plakon, whom Karen Castor Dentel defeated last year, and he's in for a tough fight, but if he runs the kind of campaign he did last year, I think he can win again.

          19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (Home). UCF junior, politically ambitious, and vocally liberal. Former username: tqycolumbia. "Still, where'd the lighter fluid come from?"

          by Tyler Yeargain on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:28:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  NJ 05 and NJ 11 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MrLiberal, James Allen

      have substantial Republican registration advantages - if either of those are truly competitive then we're looking at a replay of 2006.

    •  TOM PETRI??!! (5+ / 0-)

      "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

      by BlueSasha on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:16:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's a big shock to me (0+ / 0-)

        I wonder if Mark Harris declined to run against Walker for this exact reason. Harris and Justin Nickels would be the two strongest potential Democratic candidates in WI-6.

        My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

        by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:01:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Probably (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DownstateDemocrat

          Harris said didn't think he could raise the money. That would be just as true for Congress as for Governor.

          I think Jess King would be a good choice here too.

          You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

          by Gpack3 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:05:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Eh. She lost an easier State Senate seat. I'd (0+ / 0-)

            sooner have Nickels, or any of the county-wide elected Dems in Sheboygan/Manitowoc Counties (I'm thinking the DAs).

            "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

            by BlueSasha on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:11:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  IL-6, WI-8, CA-49, MI-3 (5+ / 0-)

      There's not a lot of time left for a Democratic challenger to Peter Roskam to emerge, but Melissa Bean lives either in or very close to IL-6 and would be Roskam's strongest potential challenger.

      For MI-3 (Justin Amash's district), Winnie Brinks (best known for running a write-in campaign to win the MI-HD-76 Democratic primary last year) would probably be our strongest candidate there, although Brandon Dillon would be another potential Democratic candidate there.

      CA-49 is Darrell Issa's district...I don't know who our strongest potential opponent is, although a mainstream Democrat and not a Jerry Tetalman-type would be needed to defeat Issa.

      For WI-8, Tom Nelson and Dave Hansen would be our two strongest potential challengers to Reid Ribble.

      My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:13:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think a Kurt Schrader/Brad Schneider/ (5+ / 0-)

        Scott Peters style Democrat would be needed for CA-49.

        I really hope we can take some districts in Wisconsin. It'd be a great thing for Wisconsin Dems to regain some of their confidence.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:18:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Disagree (0+ / 0-)

          The way I see it, the reason why Scott Peters had leverage in CA-52 is that the district has more Democratic voters than CA-49.  Also, Brian Bilbray was never a headline-grabbing Congressman before he was defeated in November 2012.  A Peters type would be annihilated by Issa easily because of his clout.  You need to have someone who will go after Issa hard and the way he needs to be taken down, as well as run a credible grassroots campaign.  A Peters type unfortunately won't be able to do such a campaign that can defeat Issa.  CA-49 is a different kind of district vs. CA-52.

          Also, Issa's got a massive Twitter network (over 120,000 followers) and strong base so there needs to be a much stronger Democrat than a Scott Peters/Kurt Schrader/Brad Schneider type to take on Issa.

          I just posted a comment in response to DowntstateDemocrat's comment.  Dave Peiser is currently the only Democrat running but he also isn't someone I'm actually endorsing yet.  If there are other candidates running at some point, I'll promote them as well just so the frickin DCCC targets CA-49.

          However, given the DCCC is run by Steve Israel and he just recently blew a perfect opportunity to attack Darrell Issa hard while the two appeared together on CNN, I have no faith Israel or the DCCC will finance any campaign in CA-49.

           

          •  "grassroots campaign" (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, jncca

            That's loser-speak. You don't win campaigns by going grassroots.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:29:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Scott Peters and Brad Schneider both defeated (0+ / 0-)

            incumbents in ancestrally Republican suburban districts, which is quite a feat. Kurt Schrader was initially elected in 1996, after initially losing by only a hair in 1994, to a rural/exurban district which today would be safely Republican, and even then that was a feat. Since then he's held down swingy districts with ease. I would rank them all as strong campaigners.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:40:57 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Fair assessment but (0+ / 0-)

              Neither CA-52 nor Brad Schneider's districts had Issa.  You have to understand, Issa has a STRONG clout on CA-49 and he's one of the most powerful Republicans in Congress (may be the most powerful Republican in California to be honest) and he's an effective communicator to his base even though he really blows it at making his arguments at times to the general electorate.  For any other of the GOP folks you may be referring to that got defeated by Peters and Schneider, understand, they never had Issa's wealth, influence or network.

              •  if a strong candidate like them can't beat him (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jncca

                how is anyone supposed to?

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:03:05 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Not all districts are built the same (0+ / 0-)

                  I understand where your argument is going but note that candidates in districts still need to know their territory and their opponent.  You can't just put a hypothetical candidate like Scott Peters and expect him to win in CA-49 like in CA-52.  

                  Issa is a different person with a larger base of support than Bilbray had.  His district is not deep red like Boehner's OH-08 district but the problem is (and I heard this from folks even in CA-49), the Democratic activism is not that proactive in CA-49 so the campaigning would need to start right away and with greater support than even the 2012 Democratic Candidate (Jerry Tetalman) got in 2012, which was 42% by the way.

                  How about this hypothetical:  A Scott Peters type with fire in his belly who will call out Issa's hypocrisy.  That's a candidate who can win, not Scott Peters.  Hopefully you understand what I'm saying.

                  CA-49 covers the more coastal areas of San Diego County and also parts of Orange County, which have a larger percentage of Republicans than in the SD County areas in CA-49 although the SD County areas have more residents.  There are still more Republicans than Democrats in CA-49 San Diego regions and not a narrow percentage.

                  The good thing about CA-49 is that it is rated by the Cook Report as R+4 but regardless of what candidate goes up against Issa, he will need to start campaigning right away and attack Issa like he should be attacked.

                  It's a tricky ground for CA-49.  

          •  There is only one way to Square the Circle in CA49 (0+ / 0-)

            We, as far as I know, have a very weak bench in this district (while I live here, I live in the OC portion, and have little knowledge regarding who would be a good candidate in SD that is already in elected office).

            I have floated previously that our best bet for recruitment from the established politician angle would be to find someone sitting on the Oceanside City Council.  I'm willing to bet one of them is a democrat, but I don't know for sure.

            This angle though probably will fall short.  The best overall angle is to recruit someone from the business community down in La Jolla and have him run against Issa.  This person would probably have to be personally wealthy, as Issa has a bunch of cash on hand.  

            Even if we get a dream candidate, our chances here are slim to none, and if we don't get any recruitment, it pretty much won't happen.

            One good thing about the current some dude we have in the field is that he did serve on the Board of Directors of the Encinitas Chamber of Commerce for 4 years.  It's small potatoes, I know, but I'd assume he would do better against Issa than Tetalman did last time around.

            I sincerely request that the DCCC recruits a candidate for this race.  Issa isn't well liked, and this district is fundamentally different from his inland before 2012.

            Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home)

            by Ryan Dack on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:15:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  DCCC is not likely to get involved (0+ / 0-)

              But I'll be happy to see if it did.  When you have Steve Israel appearing with Darrell Issa on CNN days ago and not taking the chance to go after Issa when he could, you know Israel isn't going to seek out a recruit against Issa, even though

              Wealth unfortunately does play a factor in CA-49 since Issa has it.

              However, CA-49 has room for growth and if there's anything I'd encourage, it would be to start doing those voter registration drives and do it in a proactive way.

              You should pay more attention to the coverage I do of CA-49 and contribute to the conversation accordingly.  I'm surprised you haven't commented since I post Issa diaries ALL the time on Kos (as a matter of fact, I have one scheduled this afternoon) and throughout Twitter about getting the grassroots base fired up, as well as mentioning the voting numbers, which actually prove CA-49 is a R+4 district, which is NOT that red vs say Kevin McCarthy's district.  The only reason why it's difficult is because Issa's in office and he has his wealth.  If he was in office and didn't have wealth or not in office, it would be easier for the Democratic Party.

              Take a look at the voter registration numbers.  There are currently 29% Democrats, 41% Republicans and 24% Independents/Decline-to-State voters.

              http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

      •  Hansen is probably too outspokenly liberal (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DownstateDemocrat, WisJohn

        Nelson would be good though. He's a campaigning machine.

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:06:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Dave Peiser is running in CA-49 (0+ / 0-)

        No, he's not a Jerry Tetalman type.  He's a progressive Democrat based in Encinitas but judging from his Facebook and Twitter posts, he's got fire in his belly and knows his facts about Issa's voting record pretty darn good.  He's also pro universal healthcare, pro-environment and pro-immigration reform.

        However, I should be frank that I'm not endorsing Peiser yet nor am I raving about him.  I really don't know THAT much about him and haven't seen any videos yet.  I only promote his candidacy on Kos and on my regular Darrell Issa diaries because quite frankly, I can't stand Darrell Issa anymore and couldn't stand him as far back as in 2003 when he bankrolled the CA Gubernatorial Recall Election.  If you guys can think of or know of a better Democratic candidate who can run in CA-49, by all means, I'll support the hell out of him/her.  If no other candidate besides Peiser emerges, then I'll promote the hell out of Peiser via Twitter and other avenues (Peiser by the way is very responsive to posts on Facebook).  I'll do whatever it takes to get rid of Issa.

        Mainstream Democrat?  Define what you mean by that.  Not all mainstream Democrats are guaranteed to win districts which aren't in the toss-up category.  For starters, Issa has a big clout on CA-49 and while the Democratic and Independent/Decline-to-State voter registration numbers are increasing (I'm not joking about this), it will take someone with real fire in his belly to win CA-49, and a grassroots campaign that really covers all the areas of Vista, Carlsbad, Encinitas, San Clemente, etc.

        •  A progressive Democrat (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn, jncca

          Is never going to win this district. A business Democrat will, but not a progressive one.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:29:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  How are you sure about that? (0+ / 0-)

            And progressive Democrats can be business people.  You're making a rather disjointed argument.

            •  Find me an example of this (0+ / 0-)

              and then we can talk.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:58:31 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

                •  can you find someone who actually won office? (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wwmiv, WisJohn, jncca

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:05:18 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  A progressive businessman? (0+ / 0-)

                    That's a bit hard to determine because progressive Democrats who run for office are typically are involved in public service.

                    My argument though points to the notion that we assume because someone is a progressive Democrat, that they cannot be a business-minded person.  I'm a progressive Democrat myself, work in the marketing industry (not in a political, social or non-profit context) and attend an MBA program in SF.  Assuming I were to move down to CA-49 once I finish my MBA program and at one point were to challenge Issa or whoever else is a Republican in CA-49 (assuming Democrats don't win in the upcoming races in the district), would it be assumed right off the bat I couldn't win over voters because I happen to be progressive even though I have a business background?

                    •  What about Suzanne DelBene? (0+ / 0-)

                      She might not be the most progressive candidate in the world, and running in Washington, a generally Democratic state, probably frees her up to run to the left a little bit more than running in, say, Ohio would, but I remember seeing her support for single payer on her page in 2010 of all years. She's got a business background, even if she personally didn't create her own company, and while, again, she might not be Barbara Lee, she seems to be more of the progressive mold than the moderate mold.

                      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                      by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:34:36 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Hmmmm. (0+ / 0-)

                        Good observation.  However, you also mention 2010 and that's the year where Democrats got big losses in the House.

                        Good example though.  Typically, the Democratic Party has not had a history of running candidates in business quite like the GOP.  Nowadays, that may be changing since the GOP just about lost support from the business community big time over the government shutdown.

                        •  I wouldn't be so broad with your statements. (0+ / 0-)

                          You might be right, but I'm not entirely sure. We'd need to go back and do a comparison about candidates over the years. I'd also say that what we used to see during the New Deal era up to the Reagan Revolution was different that what we saw after it. I mean, lots of people used to be veterans, because we had several big wars and a draft, and far fewer women in government. And of course, people tend to stay in government once they are in it, making the possibilities of different backgrounds smaller.

                          There's also the fact that having a business background can be pretty much anything outside of strict military service or only working in government in some capacity. People seem to be fairly casual about making "business" background and "private sector" background (as in, anything not purely in government) the same thing, when they really aren't. By that standard, pretty much anyone has a private sector background.

                          Oh yeah, most people tend not to gravitate towards the extremes. More people do it on their side than on ours, but lots of people, however falsely, tend to claim they are independent or moderate, even if they would be perfectly comfortable taking on a progressive or conservative label. Combined with the fact that issue pages are hardly always detailed (i.e. being for universal coverage can mean something decidedly right wing,something like the PPACA, or single payer), and it's hard to really pin a label on many people.

                          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                          by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:59:32 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Well, in hindsight, I'm referring to Democrats... (0+ / 0-)

                            Of more recent years as opposed to say the entire history of the party.

                            What I have seen as of recent years, perhaps since Barack Obama has been President (not saying Obama's presidency has had anything to do with this), more Democratic candidates are running for Congress with business backgrounds before.

                            However, it might be better served, as you mentioned, to look at how the Democratic Party has evolved since say the 1930's and 1940's as far as candidates being from business backgrounds or not.

                    •  Yes we would assume that you couldn't... (0+ / 0-)

                      for one a MBA doesn't make you a businessman... Secondly you cant win over conservative suburban voters by fanatically preaching at them on progressive issues they dont care about.

                      Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

                      by CF of Aus on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:00:26 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  Mark Pocan (0+ / 0-)

                    He was a state legislator, but also owns a printing company. He actually has the highest Progressive Punch score for 2013-2014 of any Congressperson.

                    Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

                    by fearlessfred14 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:57:21 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Rob Zerban (0+ / 0-)

                  Though certainly a businessman, is not what is typically thought of as a "business Democrat" because his preferred policies are not good for big businesses in their own view. And he lost.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:08:44 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  And he's running again (0+ / 0-)

                    And Paul Ryan was Romney's running mate in 2012 and now is vulnerable for re-election.

                    What makes a typical business Democrat anyway?  Someone who is conservative or moderate?

                    •  Ryan will never be vulnerable . . . (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      WisJohn, JGibson

                      . . . as long as his district includes parts of Wauke$ha County. His own hometown of Janesville, in Rock County, voted against him, but those Circle of Ignorance suburbs of Milwaukee are what perpetually save his bacon.

                      30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "'Let's talk about health care, Mackenzie!' 'Oh Amanda, I'd rather not; that's not polite!'"

                      by The Caped Composer on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:12:53 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

    •  CO-03 (5+ / 0-)

      Some of these numbers are jaw-dropping. Scott Tipton has a 28-51 approval rating, and he's losing to Generic D 42-48 in the initial head-to-head. Lieutenant Governor Joseph Garcia and State Senator Gail Schwartz would both be solid candidates for this district. Angela Giron's State Senate district is also in this seat, so considering she's not holding office at the moment, she wouldn't have anything to lose in running for this seat if she wants it. I'd love to talk about all of the numbers, but Tipton's numbers stuck out the most to me. I've been amazed that he hasn't really gotten much attention so far this cycle, and I really hope we get a solid candidate soon. I think this seat, with a good Democratic candidate, could be a top-10 pickup.

  •  VA-Gov: Is this good news? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    I know nothing of The Richmond Times-Dispatch, but they aren't endorsing anyone for VA-GOV.  The article says they have a history of supporting GOPers so maybe a non-endorsement is the best to be hoped for, but again I have no idea.

    They endorsed Northram and Obenshain for the other races.  Reading the 2 endorsements makes it seem pretty right-wing of a newspaper though.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:20:50 AM PDT

  •  WI-Gov: Walker under investigation again (7+ / 0-)

    This time, it involves, among other things, alleged illegal campaigning by Walker during the 2012 recall attempt against Walker:

    A former top-level assistant U.S. attorney has been appointed a special prosecutor in a burgeoning, secret investigation into a wide variety of state issues, including possible campaign violations during the recent recall elections, multiple sources said.

    Francis Schmitz — who spent nearly 30 years as a federal prosecutor and was once a finalist for U.S. attorney in Milwaukee — is leading the widespread John Doe probe, according to sources.

    Overseeing the case is Kenosha County Circuit Judge Barbara A. Kluka, who has been used by Milwaukee County judicial officials in past John Doe cases.

    Milwaukee County Assistant District Attorney Bruce Landgraf, whose office initiated the probe, declined to answer questions about the John Doe on Friday. Insiders said the investigation covers several jurisdictions, including Dane County. Police and prosecutors in these other counties have been lending a helping hand.

    "It's now spread to at least five counties," said a source familiar with the probe, adding that Landgraf has been investigating "all over the place."

    This is the second John Doe probe into alleged illegal activity by Walker and his allies. The first one nabbed six people connected to Walker during his time as Milwaukee County Executive, although Walker himself was not charged in that probe.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:22:28 AM PDT

    •  I think it was fearlessfred who said (5+ / 0-)

      yesterday that his administration is far from clean and that this could be a problem for him in the future. Was this what he was referring to?

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:01:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He might have been refering to this (0+ / 0-)

        My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

        by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:33:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  He has a whole other big scandal going now (4+ / 0-)

        He and a bunch of legislators steered taxpayer money that was supposed to be for promoting hunting eductation to a non-profit that did precious little hunter educating, and quite a lot of supporting Republican candidates.

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:09:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wasn't there also something about (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Puddytat

          a lot of shady title job title stuff that was little more than an underhanded way of giving people close to him raises?

          All of this seems like it'd be solid to use against him--secondary to a pronounced campaign on job creation, of course.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:12:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  oh yeah (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Puddytat

            Forgot about that one. That's a little run-of-the-mill, both-sides-do-it quasi-corruption. We probably should look at changing the pay scale so it's easier to give merit raises without resorting to shenanigans.

            You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

            by Gpack3 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:16:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I was thinking about WEDC (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, Puddytat

        , the fake sportsmens' group, having a mining bill written by and for an individual mining company, suspicious raises given to politically reliable staff members, and a bunch of other little stuff. I did not know about this until I saw Puddytat's diary on Badger State Progressive.

        Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

        by fearlessfred14 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 03:23:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  OOOh. I like this. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin, JBraden

      The more Scott Walker gets negative publicity, the better it is for Democrats.

  •  Sanford sadly educating his mistress on taxes (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, James Allen, ArkDem14

    http://www.politico.com/...

    "I can tell you that a governor makes $108,000 a year and from this you have to deduct a third in taxes, so from this he can't even pay for private school for his children, without of course help from family or a fortune from before."

    First, boo hoo on making $108k/yr. Second someone making $108k/yr pays not a third in taxes, but 28% if single (and I assume Sanford is...but when he was governor, he was married, so his tax rate then would be 25%). This is assuming no deductions, and I'm sure Sanford takes enough deductions to get his rate to 25% even when single. Standard deduction is just over $6k and exemption is lamost $4k. I'm sure he can find $10k more to deduct so his rate is only 25%. For instance, contributing $10k to a 401k

    •  LOL (5+ / 0-)

      I wish people truly understood tax rates.  The misinformation is ridiculous.  Even if he took 0 deductions his taxes on $108K would be around $24K, which is like 22%, not 28% (I want marginal tax rate taxation taught in pre-k).

      Oh well, they shant let truth get in the way.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:39:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have a friend who (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rdw72777, James Allen, ArkDem14, Mark27

        insists his lawyer cousin pays 60 percent of her salary in taxes, largely because, until recently, she wasn't able to deduct things like mortgage interest. I'm not a tax lawyer, and his cousin supposedly is, but I tried playing around with that, and I just can't see how that is. At the very least, wouldn't the state and local deduction help?

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:03:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  These people (4+ / 0-)

          Who talk like that start lumping things together like sales tax, taxes on gasoline and what not.

          If you make and spend a lot of money I guess there is a way to get above 50% (i.e make millions of dollars in an area with high state/local income tax) but the deductions would obviously be taken.  Of course if you do like Mitt Romney and eschew numerous deductions to intentionally pay more taxes in advance of your Presidential run, it gets much easier.

          To get to anything over 45% is pretty hard to do.  

          For instance I heard the guy in the office next to me the other day talking to a co-worker's daughter who didn't like paying Philly wage tax (a whopping 4%) and he started ranting about payign 70% in taxes.  It took less than 60 seconds before we got to the point where he was complaining about paying liquor taxes on his dinners in the city...as if that were some mandatory unavoidable "income" tax...because he has to eat.

          Le sigh :-(

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:10:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  we have one of the biggest state income taxes (0+ / 0-)

            and I think the highest earners pay 8-11% of their income in state taxes. Unless they're paying a ton in property taxes and are paying the maximum in fed income tax, I can't see how they'd get to 60%.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:55:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well if you throw in prop taxes (3+ / 0-)

              Then you can get there pretty quick.  But again people who claim they pay a 60% tax rate are throwing all kinds of ingredients into their "sauce".  

              When you factor in all taxes its easier to get to 60% each month.  Throw in income taxes, payroll taxes, sales taxes, utility/phone taxes, gasoline taxes, beer/liquor taxes, property taxes...etc.  

              But it's just a bunch of gibberish and designed to confuse people who can't do math...err, arithmetic.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:17:18 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Also (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          Don't use a lawyer who pays an effective 60% tax rate.  Even if her specialty has nothing to do with taxes...taxes are a lot about paperwork and understanding lots of words...something a lawyer should be competent at.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:14:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  that's a bullshit story. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp

          People only pay that much if they're incompetently doing their taxes. Or have an accountant who's stealing their money.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:50:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You would be surprised how clueless some ppl are (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            when it comes to their paychecks. I have a friend who swears up and down that his biweekly insurance contribution was $5 before Obamacare. I asked if he had some more of what he had been smoking when he thought his insurance premiums were only $10 a month.

            •  My premium isn't that far off from those numbers, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              but that's because I currently use an HSA-style account and only pay for myself. I figured I'd be switching jobs sooner rather than later and was looking to save some money until I did so. (Then again, I said that in October of 2011; only slightly behind schedule, right?) When I had more traditional insurance, it was higher.

              As far as my friend's cousin, I know it can get high when you earn a lot, live in a high tax state, and don't have many deductions and credits, but 60 percent after all of that stuff seemed ridiculous.

              You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

              by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:00:07 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  And Most of the Same People..... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp

          .....believe anybody making less than $36,000 doesn't pay taxes at all.  And if they are, it must mean they're terrible tax preparers.  I made $11,000 in 2005 and paid more than $300 in federal income taxes, getting only $48 back from the EITC.  Anytime I relayed this calculus to conservatives, I was met with clueless guffaws.

          •  Recc'd because (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Mark27

            you used the phrase "clueless guffaws."

            I remember when the PPACA was first passed. I had a few different people telling me they didn't want their taxes to be raised to pay for this. My response, which I am almost certain is still the correct one, is that their taxes wouldn't be going up--not unless they tanned a lot or had a huge amount of investment income. I was annoyed at this because a former coworker and a Libertarian who went to Harvard Law School was supposedly sitting in class laughing at my comments on Facebook (this was back when I used it frequently). I don't remember if I ever asked her why. Granted, this was the same girl who, despite being at the top of her class in high school and/or at Notre Dame and going to HLS, believed me when I told her I was going to be on a young adult version of "The Bachelor," so maybe I shouldn't have given a crap about her opinion.

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:31:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Soth Carolina has a 7% tax rate (0+ / 0-)

        28% + 7% = more than a third

        Why snipe at the guy when his point is obviously correct?

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 05:47:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  If SC invested in its public schools like other (10+ / 0-)

      states, then you could send your kids to goddamn public school you imbecile.

      •  Don't governors get meals and stuff (0+ / 0-)

        provided for them, sort of like the president does?

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:06:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  So Sanford was right (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      they are soulmates.

    •  Because 75 grand a year (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      isn't enough to be paying on 3 mercedes and a McMansion, therefore it's a sign of destitution among country club, fiscal conservatives like Sanford.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:54:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-02: HMP ad going after Southerland (11+ / 0-)

    for his vote against the shutdown deal.

  •  Philadelphia's new election site (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Adam B, wadingo

    Nothing amazing if you live somewhere that 21st century technology is utilized, but this is Philly.

    http://www.philadelphiavotes.com/

    Pretty user-friendly...gotta love that under "Voter ID" that it still says "Voter ID is not required for elections on November 5, 2013 unless it's your first time in a new location".  Hooray for small miracles.

    Also, you can download spreadsheets by ward/division for past elections back to 2007.  In 2012, there were 50 divisions (the level below ward) that gave Romney 0 votes.  In those divisions, Obama got 16,860 votes, Gary Johnson got 11 votes, Jill Stein (?) got 17 votes and Romney got 0 votes.  

    There were 99 divisions where Romney got just a single vote, and Obama won those divisions with 36,884 votes to 99 for Romney.

    Romney won 36 out of 1687 divisions.

    Hillarious.

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:48:20 AM PDT

  •  I am working on a spreadsheet (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BlueSasha, pucklady, ChadmanFL, gabjoh

    for House 2014.

    So far, I've got POTUS elections from last two elections, lifetime Progressive Punch score, any opponents I know of, ratings from "pundits" (per Wikipedia), vote on the final shutdown bill, and the latest PPP poll results (fav-unfav and vs. generic opponent).

    If others are working on similar stuff, maybe we can pool our efforts.

  •  13 PA Races to Watch in 2013 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ProgMD, Christopher Walker

    According to PoliticsPA.  There are also two Supreme Court retention races (Castille, Baer), which should be cakewalks.

  •  NJ-gay marriage breaking news! (14+ / 0-)

    it seems as if Chris Christie has advised the state to withdraw its appeal: http://www.towleroad.com/...

    so, gay marriage is now in NJ to stay!

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:24:41 AM PDT

    •  The writing was on the wall with the NJSC... (0+ / 0-)

      So Christie gets to play hero here is all he's doing.  Though I guess him pulling it could hurt him in any primary.  He won't be able to run from his veto in any general - no way in hell.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:29:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He hasn't been re-elected YET (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, wadingo

      and throwing MORE money at a sure loser of an appeal after paying for two elections back-to-back might endanger a double digit win for him. He can tell the fundies he did his best if pushed on it in 2016.

      •  Nothing is endangering his reelection (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wadingo

        The base isn't going to buy that he did his best because he had the opportunity to go all the way to SCOTUS (or at least petition SCOTUS, even if they refused to hear the case), and he pulled out and in a statement declared same sex marriage the law of the land in NJ. That isn't going to fly with the Christian right.

        •  After the Big Hug (0+ / 0-)

          he killed his chances anyway. He's a creature of press speculation more than a realistic candidacy.

          •  Disagree... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            aamail6

            Christie is a very good politician, and he's very good at manipulating the electorate.  He'll do enough yelling at undesirables to make the base like him again.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:49:37 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  And I disagree with that (0+ / 0-)

              The base can pick and choose their options in the epected primary.  It's hard to see who amongst the caucus goers will vote for Christie.  

              His appeal is in states with uber-late prmaries...i.e. Giuliani-ish prospects.  As such, I don't see how he can even survive to get to states where he can be strong.  I wouldn't be surprised if he polled strong in Iowa and ended up with a Howard Dean-like disappointment...that would doom him from the start.

              The Republican base gets excited over pretty much all the things that someone other than Christie can stand for.  People like the idea of him, but not him.  And primaries are all about getting to know the candidates...sometimes knowing them too well.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:57:27 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't see him doing that well in Iowa (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, The Caped Composer

                He's going to have to come in a strong first in New Hampshire, or he's toast. Even that will be just life support for Florida, where again he'd absolutely have to come in first.

                •  And this is where (0+ / 0-)

                  HRC being a presumed nominee gets fun.  If Hillary isn't facing a major player, then Dems can cross over in NH with the undeclareds and screw around.

                  Of course they won't becaue NH is so reasonable but still it's a fun dream.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:05:26 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  This should be fun for his 2016 run (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, James Allen, The Caped Composer

      He's have to explain to the base why he didn't fight to stop the gays from marrying when he still had the opportunity to do so. I saw one article say that it could be cynical, since the challenge to NJ's law was based on the fact that civil unions and full marriages were a difference in name only. Had it gone to the SCOTUS, it is possible (or likely) that they would have found that the difference was in name only and convert all civil unions nationwide to full marriages. So Christie's argument would have to be that he allowed gay marriage in NJ without a fight to stop gay Coloradans from having the right to marry. I somehow don't see that flying with the base.

      •  So what you're saying is (0+ / 0-)

        A Christie Rubio ticket will have some 'splaining to do?

        (No I couldn't find a short clip from I Love Lucy on youtube...sad.)

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:47:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No way to go to SCOTUS. This was purely (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Adam B

        about the NJ state constitution and what it says.  SCOTUS wouldn't have touched it with a 10 foot pole.

        One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

        by AUBoy2007 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:47:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree, they prob wouldn't have taken the case (0+ / 0-)

          However, Christie could have continued the appeal and waited for the SCOTUS to decline to hear it, in which case the NJ Supreme Court's decision would stand and Christie could legitimately say that he did all that he could. He's going to have to explain why he just gave up, and the base is not going to be happy with "We wouldn't have won anyway".

    •  At this point I just feel like every time (10+ / 0-)

      a state legalizes gay marriage, the embarrassment for Illinois increases.

  •  Question about Indiana House Race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    A Politico article said a Notre Dame official named Joe Bock is primed to announce for the House as a Democrat, and then they go on to other races without any discussion of Joe Bock at all.  I don't have Joe Bock in my spreadsheet, what seat is he contemplating challenging for?

    "The Attorney General will not cast aspersions on my asparagus" - Texas Rep. Louis Gohmert-R to Attorney General Eric Holder.

    by walja on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:33:20 AM PDT

  •  MS-Sen: Club for Growth out w/anti-Cochran ad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wadingo

    2014 is going to be amazing.

  •  Repost: Bill Clinton to campaign with T-Mac 3 days (8+ / 0-)

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:56:11 AM PDT

  •  ID-Gov: Otter might get a primary challenger (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, Christopher Walker

    http://www.spokesman.com/...

    State Sen. Russ Fulcher filed preliminary paperwork to explore a primary against Gov. Butch Otter because of his support for an state exchange in Idaho. Fulcher is a 5 termer and is the #4 Republican in the state senate.

    Fulcher is a former Micron executive now in the commercial real estate business. He opposed the state exchange, contending it meant Idaho surrendered its sovereignty to “the federal puppeteer.”
    Not sure how he thinks setting up a state exchange as opposed to forcing Idahoans into the federal exchange is giving up the state's sovereignty, but I guess that makes sense if you're a teabagger.
  •  VA-Gov: Charlottesville Daily Progress endorses... (6+ / 0-)

    Bill Bolling for Gov?
    http://www.dailyprogress.com/...
    Per politicalwire, this is a conservative paper.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:59:25 AM PDT

  •  New national numbers from CNN (9+ / 0-)

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/...

    Do you think it is good for the country or bad for the country that the Republican Party is in control of the U.S. House of Representatives?

    Good 38%
    Bad 54%

    If you had to choose, would you rather see John Boehner remain as Speaker of the House, or would you rather see Boehner replaced as Speaker by another Republican?

    Remain 30%
    Replace 63%

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:02:52 AM PDT

    •  I'd offer a split response (10+ / 0-)

      I think the GOP in control of the House is bad, but I don't think replacing Boehner with another Republican would improve things.  Whoever such a replacement might be (Eric Cantor? Paul Ryan? Kevin McCarthy?) would not be an improvement.  At best it would be a push, and could be much worse, particularly if they went full-on Tea Party (which wouldn't be too likely IMO; such a nominee would seriously divide the GOP and possibly lead someone more moderate to be chosen with Democratic help.)

      But do I think Boehner should be replaced?  Yes, by Nancy Pelosi.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:31:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WY-AL: Lummis gets primary challenger from left! (9+ / 0-)

    http://trib.com/...

    Corrections officer & former Marine Jason Senteney is primarying Cynthia Lummis from the left, surprising. He's hoping to get enough Democrats to cross over in the primary to take her out.

    He questions Lummis’ vote on the bill that made sequestration into law, the Budget Control Act. He said casting a vote in favor of the law hurt public health programs, senior citizens and veterans. It cut $400,000 from health programs, furloughed 1,000 Department of Defense employees and cut money from the Meals on Wheels budget, he said.

    Lummis viewed sequestration as a small victory because it helped rein in the nation’s spending.

    He said Lummis’ hawkish stance on spending bills and other legislation make her a polarizing figure.

    “You have to reach across the aisle and talk to people,” he said.

    •  Interesting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I don't think that will work very well.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:10:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Why does he just run as a Democrat? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27

      It doesn't sound that much sillier than the path he's choosing.

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:10:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's a good question (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, betelgeux

        Being a Democrat would probably make him utterly unelectable in Wyoming, which probably is part of it. If he actually wants a seat in Congress and not just to run a campaign against Lummis, he'd need to take her out in the primary.

        •  Well, it's hard, to be sure, (0+ / 0-)

          but my guess is that the establishment both in state and at the national level has no problems with her. And perhaps there's more of a down low liberalism trend in regards to certain types of spending in the WYGOP than I realize. Still, this seems like a fool's errand. Why not just run but don't do so in a psychotic way, hope to succeed but at least make a good name for yourself, and then run for something else if you don't succeed?

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:24:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Wyoming (0+ / 0-)

          I heard that the legislative caucus in Wyoming for Democrats normally met in a telephone booth.

          Dont know if that is still true

    •  HELL YES (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jorge Harris, JBraden

      About time there's a challenger to Lummis.

      Now can we get Gary Trauner to do ONE last run?  :)

    •  Fun times in Wyoming. (0+ / 0-)

      This on top of the Dick Cheney Jr. primary challenge for Senate and Gov. Matt Mead's challenge by nutso* superintendent for public instruction Cindy Hill (she of the Beezlebub-esque Glamour Shot).

      But I think if there were enough Democrats to cause an upset here, there'd be enough to make an actual Democrat competitive in the general.

      *This is not an understatement.  So unhinged is this woman that the Wyoming legislature--which is only slightly more Democratic than Hawaii's is Republican--stripped her of all but ceremonial powers!

      Proud progressive stuck in George J. "Mike" Kelly's PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor).

      by JBraden on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:32:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So I just finished redrawing (6+ / 0-)

    a non-partisan map of Florida, the sort we could potentially see if the Dem controlled FL Supreme Court strikes down the Republican gerrymander:
     photo FloridaStateView_zpse85ce38a.png
     photo FloridaMiamiView_zps30be9975.png

    I'm going to run the numbers based on actual precinct results for all the districts, something I hadn't previously done since Florida only has 2008 pres in DRA and those voting districts don't exactly match up with 2010 precincts anyway. Thus I have estimates for 2006-2012 but there's a decent amount of error in bigger counties like Miami-Dade.

    However, I just finished running Pinellas County last night given how competitive the 13th will be after Bill Young's passing and how there's basically only one option for it in the absence of a Republican gerrymander (adding St. Petersburg, dropping Dunedin, adding more Clearwater). Those changes cause the district to go from 50.7% Obama two party in 2012 to a much wider 55.1% Obama. Bill Young would have won here by less than 5% last year and probably have just called it quits.

    The other major changes are that the 2nd district moves .5% towards us, the 5th district becomes Jacksonville only and no longer safe but still Dem leaning, giving us a safe D 10th district in Orlando, and the 26th district becomes uber safe for Joe Garcia. On the downside, Murphy's district moves 2% towards Republicans and would be a harder hold. Finally, if PPP's numbers are anywhere near accurate in House polling, all of the 3rd, 7th, 8th, 11th, 12th, 15th, 16th, 25th, and 27th are just on the edge of competitiveness in a wave.

  •  $1 MM for Liz Cheney, Insanity/Inanity to Continue (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    I don't remember seeing this here last week, but apparently, she raised $1 million so far. Unless this is through direct mail, it's a healthy figure for her. Thankfully, her insane/inane quest to dethrone career politician and faux Constitutional conservative Mike Enzi will continue, if only to suck up dollars that could be use elsewhere.

    You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

    by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:19:39 AM PDT

    •  From her father's donor lists/friends no doubt... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      Probably a lot of Va. defense contractor companies as well.

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:17:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-07: Ami Bera raised $462K in Q3 (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.sacbee.com/...

    He has about $900K cash on hand. All potential Republican challengers were far behind in fundraising.

    •  Including Elizabeth Emken (0+ / 0-)

      Who lost to Dianne Feinstein in 2012 in the U.S. Senate race and will likely lose to Ami Bera, even particularly given she lives in Danville and CA-07 doesn't even include Danville.

      Emken really should just focus on her autism-related causes instead.

  •  NE-01: Dennis Crawford takes on Fortenberry (3+ / 0-)

    http://journalstar.com/...

    Although Fortenberry voted  Thursday in favor of the bipartisan compromise that reopened the government and eliminated the threat of a default on U.S. debt this month, Crawford said, the congressman voted in September for the House budget resolution that "led to the government shutdown and kicked off the default threat.
    •  isn't the best we've done here in the past decade (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      to lose by 10 points, and that with Scott Kleeb?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:15:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's a very Republican seat (0+ / 0-)

        The last Democrat to win it was Clair Callan in 1965, and he only held the seat for 1 term. Before that, a Democrat hadn't won it since the 30s.

      •  It's worse than that. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, ChadmanFL

        Kleeb ran against Adrian Smith in NE-03.  His 10-point loss was an unbelievable overperformance there.  

        Looks like Fortenberry's closest race was 54-43 for the open seat in 2004.  Then he beat former Lt. Governor Maxine Moul 58-42 in 2006, a great year for Dems.  So yeah he'll be tough to unseat.

        White male, 37, FL-17 (Tom Rooney (R) - boo), dad to 5-year-old daughter. "”We need to uptick our image with everyone, including one-armed midgets.” - Michael Steele

        by spiderdem on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:28:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I see David has a list of people (0+ / 0-)

    who still think Kathleen Sebelius is competent (if there were still those who thought she might possibly be slightly competent). I am more than a little annoyed by the headlines being so slanted in their wording; "New team brought in to fix Obamacare" "Obamacare off to a rough start", no, fuckers, that's not fucking balanced and its inaccurate, and many people will just title browse and get the completely wrong idea and you know this. Obamacare is not off to a rough start; its working far better than expected because there is a huge and immediate flow of people shopping the exchanges. What is off to a rough start is the online component of one component of the law, how can it be seen as balanced to then describe that in a headline as "Obamacare has a rocky start."

    Still though, it's almost deserved. Using web 1.0 technology for a 2013 government site? Using estimates based on senior response to the 2003 medicare site for the general population and in 2013? The web rollout, a critical part of the exchanges, has been a clusterfuck, all out of the stupidity of the HHS, which should have known better and shouldn't have been so technologically illiterate.

    I hope the coverage around this isn't hurting the publics receptivity or support for Obamacare because I would like to actually see Democrats be able to run on this program's general improvements in 2014.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:09:43 AM PDT

    •  Not sure if it's still (0+ / 0-)

      accurate to say the delays are caused by too many people trying to use the exchanges. Nor am I sure that it's accurate to blame Sebelius.

      I don't know anything about designing a system like this, so I have no technical insight to offer, but the best commentary came from the person (Kevin Drum, perhaps, who has a tech background) who said that the biggest problem was the firm deadline. With a private company, you can delay things to be sure everything is working as well as possible. For a few reasons, that wasn't the case here.

      As far as the response, I don't really have much to add, except that I can't believe everyone in the White House is as out of touch as some expect them to be. Which is to say, they know that if this isn't fixed sooner rather than later, the shit will hit the fan. And if the problems can be overcome sooner rather than later and/or people can sign up through other means, it'll be an embarrassing footnote, but still just a footnote. It's only October 21. There's a lot of time left in 2013.

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:18:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've been reading up on the issue (0+ / 0-)

        Tech articles I've read say the entire website framework is shit. The fact that people have to clear their caches among other things is  a dead give away that the HHS people constructed this site using ten year technology. The tech view has been the most disparaging, a computer programmer friend of mine was literally baffled at what he called the incompetence of it; it's not they didn't have one ready (which they didn't fully), it's that what they had was based on a stupid model of web traffic and built on hopelessly outdated technology, like the HHS bureucracy is still living in the Medicare Plan D era, i.e. 2003.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:25:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  HHS didn't build the site. It's contracted out (7+ / 0-)

          The firm that built the site is CGI Federal. They've handled a lot of federal IT contracts before and there was no reason to believe that they were incompetent based on past performance. I have a friend who works for CGI Federal (not on the Healthcare.gov project) that told me that the scale of the project is the problem. It's also important to remember than when the ACA was written, it envisioned 50 state based exchanges, the federal exchange was supposed to be a stop gap in case states couldn't get their operational in time. Instead, red states simply refused to set up exchanges, shifting a massive burden onto the federal exchange.

          •  HHS (0+ / 0-)

            I'm sure gave CGI Federal the parameters; that's essentially how it would work. They say, "Here's what we need. Build it for us." My biggest issue with this whole things is that HHS's estimates and directions to CGI were way off. HHS didn't pay for a big site, with lots of server support. They paid and had a site built to deal with a small traffic (even though it became clear a year ago that many people would be driven to the federal exchanges by obstinate Republican governors and legislatures), and they did this based on stupid estimates of what the traffic would look like, which again, were apparently derived from the initiate web traffic for the medicare plan D rollout website in 2003.

            But CGI is also implicated here, if, as the tech articles and some of my tech friends say, the website is just plain shoddy; and uses outdated technology.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:35:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  There's also the issue of funding (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, ehstronghold

              The amount of funding for building the site for the exchanges wasn't increased when it became obvious that it would need to handle traffic from 37 states, not just 4 or 5.

              •  Definitely (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bjssp

                goes back to OMB and Sebelius for not finding ways to shift funds to the web rollout, or get additional money.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:39:30 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  They've known for over a year (0+ / 0-)

            That the Federal Exchanges would not just be a stop gap program.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:36:07 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I believe that. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          This seems to be more of an argument for paying some technologically skilled people to make sure everything is up to snuff, which would require offering them high(er) salaries. I don't see many Republicans calling for that.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:30:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  CGI Federal is the company that built the site (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, ArkDem14, ehstronghold

            From what I've read, the issue isnt with the HHS specifications, its  that coding a site on this scale is almost impossible with no problems, and with the amount of media scrutiny, the problems become amplified. If Apple had launched a site that made ordering their product impossible, they could just delay and launch it a month later. It would be embarrassing, but in the long wrong it wouldn't matter. The ACA doesn't have that luxury.

    •  There's a million moving parts to Obamacare (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, askew, bjssp, ehstronghold, itskevin, JBraden

      And Sebelius has gotten almost all of them right. It's silly to blast her as incompetent because she's only doing a B+ job.

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:12:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, SaoMagnifico

        The arguments that Obamacare as a whole is going gangbusters except for this one little web page glitch, and Kathleen Sebelius is wildly incompetent because of this one little web page glitch, seem contradictory.

        At the risk of committing the fallacy of the middle ground, I'd argue there is some truth to both...

        •  The website is pretty important; (0+ / 0-)

          but mainly, I've just felt Sebelius has consistently done a poor jor only somewhat competent job as HHS.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:48:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I only have two beefs (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            The website and the emergency contraception decision, and the latter she was just carrying water for the White House.

            I have to work with HHS a lot on a lot of ACA related issues aside from the website and they've been very helpful, so I have a good opinion of her.

            You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

            by Gpack3 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:40:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  WV-Sen: Tennant raised $150K in two weeks (7+ / 0-)

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:13:50 AM PDT

  •  Prez 2016: Sam Brownback? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, jj32, bythesea, JBraden

    Just saw a tweet from Robert Costa at National Review hinting that Brownback might be interested in running. Aren't his numbers terrible, even in Kansas?

    •  Every time I hear (0+ / 0-)

      about a want/interest like this, I think of Bill Maher's comment in regards to Mitt Romney's 2007 suggestion that radical Islamists want to establish a global caliphate: "Yeah, and I want to be adopted by Angelina Jolie."

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:44:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Romney is so ignorant (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        The Caliphate was abolished in 1924 by Turkish secular authorities. So...would they have to restart it? Seems unlikely. Then who would have the authority to do it? Who would the new guy be? How would you get Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and Egypt (to name a few) to all accept one person? What would the job responsibilities even be in this day and age, absent an Ottoman Empire? One of the most annoying memes around if you know any history.

        Just yet another reason why we should be grateful Mitt's retired to his car elevators and creepy kids.

        •  Don't want to drive too far off DKE topic (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, SaoMagnifico

          But the whole idea of a "global caliphate" is based primarily on the fact that the people that fear it most have no clue whatsoever about what the word even means. The caliphate under the later Ottomans was essentially nothing more than a title, akin to the Queen of England being called "Protector of the Faithful" as the titular head of the Church of England.

        •  See, at first, I thought it was a Huckabee (0+ / 0-)

          comment. Maybe it was. I just said Romney because I tried to find the exact quote, I saw a site that had Maher attributing it to Romney. Would make more sense if it's Huckabee, I think.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:33:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Should go about as well (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, Adam B

      as his 2008 run.

      Man just has zero dynamism. Anticharismatic. Though his opposition to the death penalty is welcome and noted.

  •  DE-Sen: Grifters Gonna Grift! (6+ / 0-)

    http://thehill.com/...

    Christine O'Donnell (who apparently is considering running for something in 2014...) is asking her supporters to help pay for her legal expenses as she fights the FEC for fining her for using campaign funds for things like paying the rent on her house. So in true teabagger fashion, she's appealing to their hatred of the bully government.

    The former candidate said that while she was leaning toward accepting the settlement, she wanted to gauge support for "stopping the bullying when citizen politicians step up to fight against the corruption in DC."
  •  CA-15 (0+ / 0-)

    Pete Stark still sounds pretty angry at Eric Swalwell beating him:

    Parting shot: Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Dublin, never got a concession call from Pete Stark when he pulled the upset of the year last November and defeated the longtime congressman from the East Bay.

    Well, consider this Stark's message to Swalwell: Nestled among his final campaign expenditures is a $2,000 contribution to state Sen. Ellen Corbett, who is running against Swalwell.

    Stark saved the big bucks, however, for his going-away party in D.C. - that bill came in at $3,772.

    http://www.sfgate.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:58:19 AM PDT

  •  Prez-2016: Schwarzenegger out (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, jj32, bythesea, JBraden

    http://thehill.com/...

    Unfortunately, all the fans of Terminator and Jingle All the Way won't get to vote for their favorite Austrian for president.

  •  anybody know the voter registration (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    in VA-05 or MI-03? PPP has Dems behind at 27-35 in MI-03 and ahead in VA-05 at 37-29.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:02:18 AM PDT

    •  Virginia has no party registration (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, DCCyclone, bythesea

      I don't know about Michigan.

    •  VA-05 is too hard (0+ / 0-)

      As psychicpanda said, no party registration in Virginia.

      But it's a very heavy lift for a Democrat in that district, tougher since the re-map.  It won't be targeted unless we're looking at a big wave and have the luxury of targeting it.  We'd be looking at a 40-seat gain or more if we were to put VA-05 into tossup territory.  Not gonna happen.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:20:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  PPP has Hurt down 5 on the initial test. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17

        I don't think that sounds like its impossible. We'd need to be in a similar position we are now, which may be improbable, but its certainly possible if the Republicans keep this insanity up.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:35:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Possible /if/ (0+ / 0-)

          I think his numbers will recover as this saga recedes into memory.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:38:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That poll is fool's gold anyway (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, itskevin

            To be "ahead" 37-29 isn't worth anything.  That many undecided doesn't mean they're gettable, and Hurt would quickly leapfrog any named Democrat if an election were close.

            In a real election, Hurt would beat any Democrat there, Perriello included, any day of any week, even during the shutdown.

            Someone on Twitter posted a tweet today claiming PPP screwed up last cycle with a dozen House polls a year out, saying Dems were ahead in all those.  But then Taniel replied that PPP got 7 of the 12 right, we picked up a majority of those polled seats after all.  So I certainly take PPP's House polls here significantly seriously.

            But not fully seriously in every case.

            If they got 7 of 12 last cycle a year out, that's great, but it's still 5 wrong.  I'm pretty confident Hurt isn't really in as much trouble as this PPP poll claimed.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:20:01 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  37-29 is the party ID (0+ / 0-)

              he was losing 47-42 on the initial generic ballot test, and 50-40 on the shutdown question.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:22:10 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Thanks, I missed that, but still don't buy it (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jncca

                Perriello barely won in '08 by a few hundred votes against a much more personally damaged incumbent in a stronger Democratic environment in a less GOP-drawn seat.

                I just don't buy it that this one shutdown, in a part of the state not particularly hard hit by it, is hurting the GOP even worse.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:00:53 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  Prez 2016: Cruz headed to Iowa (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tommypaine

    http://www.timesrepublican.com/...

    Cruz is headed to Iowa for a Republican fundraiser that will be attended by Gov. Branstad.

    •  Between Cruz's (6+ / 0-)

      ego and Branstad's mustache, how can the Republicans lose?

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:13:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Heed the 'stache (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, Zack from the SFV

        Many of us with facial hair (we prefer the term "mustachioed Americans") are very proud of our mustaches and beards.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:31:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You have a mustache? (0+ / 0-)

          For some reason, that doesn't surprise me. I don't know why, but it doesn't. (If this seems like an insult, it is very much not.)

          I just hope that you don't have a Pawlenty-style mullet.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:36:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  At the moment Ibhave a goatee (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp

            But I have been known to have a handlebar mustache in the recent past. And as far ad my hair goes, I keep it at a constant buzz cut length. As soon as my hair needs combing, I shave my head. My facial hair I tend to keep longer though.

            I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

            by OGGoldy on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:58:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  so you look like a cop? (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bjssp, uclabruin18, jncca

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:03:59 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Potentially? (0+ / 0-)

                A lot of my jiu jitsu teammates are police officers. Although most of them don't have facial hair. I look like a stereotypical 28 year-old Finnish-American (This has been described to me by several people as "Built low to thew ground and look like you're not afraid of work"). But I guess I could be seen as cop-like in a photograph?

                I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

                by OGGoldy on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:48:34 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  I still stick to my prediction (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, bythesea

      that Cruz doesnt run for president.

      •  Given the success of his antics (0+ / 0-)

        thus far, I imagine the Republican response to him running for president will be like this.

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:39:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Witt In It to Win It (15+ / 0-)

    (Say that five times fast!)

    Former FEMA Director James Lee Witt is officially running as a Democrat for AR-04. He should be a strong candidate considering his connections with Bill Clinton, and I'm hopeful we can win this seat back now that it's open.

  •  NC-11: Mark Meadows screwing his own district (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, ChadmanFL

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Meadows actually started the whole shutdown fight with the letter he wrote to the President this summer.

    I'd like to see a poll of his favorables in that district, although it probably doesn't matter.  At 61-38 Romney, NC-11 is extremely red, and unwinnable for almost any Dem.  The only Dem who could have won it in 2012 was Heath Shuler, but he thought he would have more fun being a lobbyist than running for re-election....

  •  VA-05 - Come back Perriello... (10+ / 0-)

    We need you!  I always respected him for sticking to his convictions and voting with his party on the important votes.  A lot of Dems in conservative districts cast their vote with republicans when they think it will help moderate their image.  Perriello never did that and I honestly think it helped him.  Dems lost many districts less conservative than VA-05 in 2010 by margins higher than the 4 points Perriello lost by.

    Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

    by ChadmanFL on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:07:01 AM PDT

    •  He just seems like a fighter. (6+ / 0-)

      I'm sure the contrast isn't as stark as some people sitting on their asses and Perriello pounding the pavement until his feet were ready to give out, but my impression from 2010 was that he worked his tail off far more than others did in addition to being a solid Democrat.

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:14:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  His window and closing, & if he wanted to run... (0+ / 0-)

      ...for anything again, he blew it by not gunning for L.G. this year.  Aneesh is a friend of mine, but if he couldn't win a primary against the poor Northam, Perriello would've had the nomination and then the general in a walk.  And he would've helped his ticket-mates, running a serious campaign unlike Northam and able to use his personal following to marginally drive up Democratic turnout in certain demographics and geographic centers.

      If Tom runs for VA-05 again, that will be a very heavy lift.  He was lucky to win it once, did well to lose reelection only narrowly, but now the re-map makes it prohibitive.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:18:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's still quite young. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, betelgeux

        Aside from Maria Cantwell, I'm not sure of how many people are out of politics for several years and then come back, but perhaps Perriello's best chance might be to wait for a better map. That's quite a ways off, however, and it's far from guaranteed we even get it.

        If Warner were to give up that seat because he became president or vice president, might Perriello be picked, even just as a temporary replacement?

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:39:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I have real doubts about him as a candidate (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ehstronghold

          He's got a real following, one of the Kathleen Murphy fundraisers I attended in HD-34 in McLean featured Perriello as a star guest and speaker.  Pretty unusual to headline an ex-one-term Congressman from elsewhere in the state.  But that's Tom's following.

          But a new map is many years away.  That he passed on all the statewide possibilities this year doesn't speak to much electoral ambition.  I suspect he just doesn't really have any, his heart isn't in it.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:14:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I can believe that. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            I mean, he took it seriously last time, but if you aren't going to do it again, it's best to let someone who will.

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:16:01 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Right now he has a nice (0+ / 0-)

      gig as the head of CAP's c4. This is definitely keeping him close to the action federally, but probably not so much help for VA state politics.

      CA-12, (-5.50, -6.77), originally CA-46

      by Jacques Kallis on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:43:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I still remember the comment (5+ / 0-)

      from his press secretary after he voted for the ACA.  

      "He didn't come to Congress to get re-elected."

      •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TeaBaggersAreRacists

        And it was obvious on election day 2010 that a lot of voters respected him for that.  A lot of Dem congressmen representing districts as or more conservative than VA-05 who voted against the ACA lost in landslides.  Perriello lost by just 4 points.

        Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

        by ChadmanFL on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:57:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  AR-04 - James Lee Witt running for Congress (19+ / 0-)

    Another recruiting win for the DCCC.

    http://www.arktimes.com/...

    Filibuster reform, 2013 - woulda, coulda, shoulda.

    by bear83 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:17:41 AM PDT

    •  From What I Understand...... (8+ / 0-)

      .....Witt is pretty much the only reason Grand Forks, ND, is still on the map today given his handling of their 1997 floods as unorganized and indifferent local government sat on their hands.  I remember even some Republicans musing how Hurricane Katrina would likely have gone much differently if Witt still ran FEMA.

    •  Hopefully he runs on his FEMA past... (5+ / 0-)

      and attacks the GOP on politicizing everything - even FEMA and disaster relief spending.  With Witt, and Hays - Arkansas Dems/DCCC seems to be recruiting Good Government types in hopes they can appear above hyper partisanship, and in hopes Arkansas GOP puts up a teabagger against them.  

      Arkansas is trending away from Dems fast, but I'm very impressed with the ticket the Dems are putting together for 2014.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:51:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is Clinton's touch still magical in AR? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, bear83, JBraden

        If so, I'd think this would help Witt in a lot of ways. He looks like a sober, serious person, and if he gets a stamp of approval (and why wouldn't he?) from Clinton, whom I imagine most people consider along the same lines, it'll confirm what they think.

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:55:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I can't help but think that all these Clinton ppl (4+ / 0-)

          deciding to run in 2014 isn't about getting the band back together for 2016. The more Clinton allies they can get elected next year, the better the infrastructure for Hillary to run in a 2016 primary.

          •  Perhaps, but also consider (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bear83, Gygaxian, gabjoh

            that a lot of these people are Clinton people because he was the last successful Democratic president. They'd be Reid people if they were in Nevada or O'Malley people if they were in Maryland. Or, if they didn't have any connections, they'd just be people.

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:42:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Some AR-02 updates (24+ / 0-)

    A week ago, the Democratic Party of Arkansas conducted a poll that found Tim Griffin's numbers were very very bad and he was actually trailing Pat Hays for reelection.

    Pat Hays is likely to announce tomorrow. Hays will have the backing of the entire state party (he's very close with the State Party Chair), so it is unlikely we see some random state legislator get in as well.

    Bill Halter is tossing his name around, again. Why can't this guy go away?

    Mark Stodola (Mayor of Little Rock) does not seem interested in a run for a higher office. Stodola's name is not as well known as Pat Hays's name. And being popular in North Little Rock is more important than being popular in Little Rock, where a Democratic victory is assured.

    Republicans - French Hill, Little Rock banker, seems to be getting the most recognition. He raised $100,000 for a State House seat in the last quarter. That's a lot of money. His current campaign is futile (he's running in a district where Obama won). Other names - Saline County Judge Lanny Fite, Senator Jonathan Dismang, Tea Party former legislator Ed Garner, and State Senator Jeremy Hutchinson.

    Democrats should want to run against Jeremy Hutchinson or Jason Rapert, both of whom are way too conservative and both of whom are State Senators. Rapert underperformed the top of the ticket last year by 15 points, and this is in a seat that has no Blue Dog Democrats!

    •  That's amazing re the internal poll (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus, itskevin, SaoMagnifico, JBraden

      I guess Griffin's retirement makes it safe to disclose since it's now kinda moot.

      But not totally moot, if Hays was polling that well against a scandal-free incumbent conservative in a conservative-leaning place, then he should poll at least as well in an open seat.

      Very exciting.

      But the big question to me really is whether Boehner can persuade his conference to dial it back for the next year.  That, I think, really establishes the election environment, I don't think this shutdown is quite enough.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:11:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  At least in this district, (0+ / 0-)

        isn't this nearly as good as shutdown? Unless something bad was about to be revealed, he wasn't William Jefferson, so you'd think he'd be at least somewhat competitive. Given that he won't be the candidate, it removes a big hurdle that we'd see in any race. Another shutdown or something similar that shifts everything, everywhere in our favor will be immensely helpful, but right now, we got a big lift.

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:18:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Are you excited for this race? (0+ / 0-)

      Pat Hays is seemingly announcing tomorrow.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 04:49:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Huge drop-off of young folks in local elections (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    At least that's my experience in Massachusetts.  I can't imagine Seattle is that different.

  •  VA-Gov: new McAuliffe ad featuring... (9+ / 0-)

    ...former Delegate Vince Callahan:  http://www.youtube.com/...

    This is hyper-local, the ad itself identifies him as the longest-ever-serving GOP Delegate in the state's history which is true, but really his infuence in an ad is limited to NoVA.

    Callahan represented VA-34, my district, and retired a year before I moved there.  We took the seat in 2007 and lost it in '09.  GOPer Barbara Comstock has that seat now and a disclosed private poll shows her, after 2 terms, trailing my friend Kathleen Murphy after the shutdown.

    I added the Callahan endorsement to a precinct letter that went out under my name from the local Dem committee to voters in my precinct; he is a long-loved figure in McLean.

    So this ad on TV is good in NoVA, but I'll be surprised if it helps anywhere else.  If it were me, I would've cut the ad for airing only in NoVA and had Callahan mention representing NoVA as a Republican.  But they cut the ad differently, makes me think maybe they intend to air statewide.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:24:51 PM PDT

  •  VA: The AP has fired reporter Bob Lewis (0+ / 0-)

    and news editor Dena Potter, over the now retracted "Terry McAuliffe/TM" story.

    I feel a bit of sympathy here because it's too bad if an otherwise good career has to be ended by a mistake like this.

    But the reality is it was a mistake, and one that could have been easily avoided.

    •  Wow. One bad story... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, SaoMagnifico

      I have to believe they were really shoddy in their factchecking or even that they were fed the info from a Cooch "source" and ran with it without checking it at all.   I mean just reading the report they would have read "TM" was doing contractor work at some guys house and realized that wasn't McAuliffe.  

      If it was an honest mistake where he did his due diligence and messed up it would be one thing and IMO not firable (though operate on a two strike system).  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:40:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't feel all that much sympathy (5+ / 0-)

      They clearly thought they were getting some big scoop and didn't bother to think logically about the story, and the parts of it that didn't make any sense at all. Generally speaking, there's not nearly enough accountability about getting major stories wrong in the media, and I'm always happy to see it happen.

    •  Assumptions are a no-no in journalism (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, SaoMagnifico, Minnesota Mike

      I think anyone who sends a piece to print based on an assumption rather than fact deserves to get fired and that's exactly what happened with this story.

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:03:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I thinkt he stupidity was the reason (0+ / 0-)

        Not the loss of journalistic integrity.

        The idea that TM was McAuliffe was silly, since there was a 1 out of 676 chance that the initials could be anyone's (26 times 26 for the letters in the alphabet).  

        I mean, we should expect more than that (which is why my DK screenname is initials plus date of birth...that's way more scientific...LOL).  No one will ever confuse me with some oher RDW.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:15:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree, it was stupidity (0+ / 0-)

          What happened was the writer saw a potentially huge scoop and that clouded their judgement. There are bloggers that have little or even no readers who would have been more cautious than that.

          27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:46:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Oof, that's bad. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      I believe it was right of them to suspend him temporarily for jumping the gun on something potentially critical, but this is a bit too cruel.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 04:48:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Harper internal for Jenkins (WV-03): Rahall up 4 (7+ / 0-)

    http://wvmetronews.com/...

    While it is an internal, it seems feasible, and not too shabby. I hope Rahall shapes up.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:51:22 PM PDT

  •  Idaho 2014 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, JBraden

    http://www.bellinghamherald.com/...

    Idaho Democrats are trying to tie the GOP to the failed education reforms pushed by Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Luna in the 2014 elections. The 3 laws (one would have stripped teachers of their right to organize unions, one would have mandated pay for performance for teachers, and one would have mandated online courses from private vendors for public school kids) were all defeated by large majorities in 2012.

  •  Since we're talking about competitive Virginia CDs (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    How many do you guys think McAuliffe will win?  I can see him sweeping every district except Cantor's, Goodlatte's and Griffith's.

  •  FL-AG: Fmr Deputy AG George Sheldon to run (8+ / 0-)

    http://spacecoastdaily.com/...

    He was previously serving as an assistant secretary at HHS before resigning last week. He was deputy AG under former AG Bob Butterworth, who is perhaps best known for basically recusing himself during the 2000 recount debacle because he was a Gore campaign cochair.

    •  If ever there were a referendum on ACA (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, Gygaxian, JBraden

      In the state of Florida, this is it.  I hate Obamacare and it's unconstitutional versus I worked in HHS during Obamacare roll-out.

      We seriously need to defeat her.  She is a prime candidate for moving up in the future if she is re-elected in 2014.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:20:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wasn't she involved in some scandal (0+ / 0-)

        in the past year, or am I thinking of someone else?

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:23:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Postponing death penalty for campaign event? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          Was that her?

          Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

          by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:29:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Hint hint (0+ / 0-)

          I have an execution and a fundraiser in my Outlook at the same time. Which one do I accept?

        •  Maybe this? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden

          http://flcourier.com/...

          I won't lie I know nothing about her, but worry about a 2-term female GOP AG in Florida being strong for a future run.

          I also know every time I see still photos I find her very attractive, but when she talks or even smiles (most of her stills are serious-faced) she looks less attractive...can't put my finger on why.  

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:35:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think Michele Bachmann is beautiful. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden, Stephen Schmitz

            She's just--what's the charitable way to put this?--not in the same reality that most of us are in, so my attraction only takes me so far.

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:41:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  All Republicans become less attractive (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bjssp

              once they open their mouths, IMO.

              Cathy McMorris Rodgers is quite pretty.  Marsha Blackburn looks damn good at 61.  Kristi Noem is a babe (she needs to do something about that hair helmet, though).  And although I never considered voting for her or her running mate, I'll admit that I found Sarah Palin rather captivating when she was first plucked from Arctic obscurity.

              But once they start parroting Limbaugh, I can't stand them!

              Proud progressive stuck in George J. "Mike" Kelly's PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor).

              by JBraden on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:03:02 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Death Penalty (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, ehstronghold

          She delayed an execution so that it didn't happen on the day of her reelection campaign launch.

          I pledge allegiance to liberty and justice for all.

          by childers moof on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:37:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  That was the former Lt. Gov involved in scandal (0+ / 0-)

          She resigned over a shady "charity" dealing which was linked to a chain of shady internet gambling cafes.

          Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

          by ChadmanFL on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:22:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  She's not that bright in all honestly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        and she'll be exposed if she runs for higher office. Whether it's Governor or Senate. If Nelson does the contrary from what I predicted and runs for another term, he'll rip her to pieces. I have no doubt that a Castor or a Graham will do the same. Even Murphy. The woman is a teabbaggin nut. Or if she runs for Gov, Crist will demolish her as well.

        I'm not that concern about her as you are, but yeah we should defeat her next year. That's priority number 2, and priority number 1 is defeat Scott, who is close to dead man walking status.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:38:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Another candidate state (0+ / 0-)

      to use the California method for marriage equality.

      If Crist and Sheldon win, it would make it likely that a federal court strikes down the anti-gay ban, and Crist/Sheldon can refuse to appeal the decision.

  •  MT-AL: Fmr. State Sen Ryan Zinke Announces (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, Christopher Walker

    http://www.therepublic.com/...

    He was the candidate for lt governor in the GOP primary in 2012. He obviously thinks Daines is going to run for Senate if he's jumping into the House race.

  •  Can someone explain direct-mail fundraising... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    Why is it considered 'scammy' and why is it a poor indicator for fundraising abilities?

    I am not very familiar with it, but my impression is that it is sending donation/contribution requests through mail, correct?

    •  Because it is insanely expensive to run (3+ / 0-)

      A huge portion of the donations being accepted are going directly to the company that handles the fundraising operation. Each donation is basically a donation to the direct mail company.

      •  Yeah, I'm not sure "scammy" is the word (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        But I think as David laid out it's just an inefficient way of doing it.  In the end you only end up with like half the money.

        If you have a decent campaign at all, even after paying your own staffers salaries and infrastructure and such, you should end up with more than 50%...I'm guessing way more (never worked on a campaign disclosure :-))

        On the other hand, I have no idea who is responding to spam emails/mail.  Though I work for a company that does direct marketing overseas and you';d be surprised by what people respond to so who knows.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:40:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Didn't know it was outsourced like that. (0+ / 0-)

        Thanks for the info.

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:42:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've heard of some campaigns that use it (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo

          as a backdoor to grifting too. You hire your friend/relative's company to handle your direct mail operation and they get their cut and you get the rest as a donation.

          •  This seems like a much better example of grifting. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            "This" being a hedge fund analyst by the name of Shashank Tripathi, who managed Christopher R. Wight's campaign in NY12. That district is Carolyn Maloney's district, of course, and it's D+28. She received 81 percent of the vote in 2012. Yet this guy was supposedly paid thousands of dollars as a consultant in 2012. (The FEC document linked to at BuzzFeed is not working, so I can't get an exact figure.) I have to wonder how much of this came from Wright's own money versus the campaign's donations, if any any all.

            Oh yeah, by the way, this guy's other claim to fame is spreading false information, seemingly in a deliberate manner, over his Twitter account about Manhattan during Hurricane Sandy. Some of the gems included Cuomo being trapped but in a secure shelter and ConEd having to shut down power for the entire island. This shit was picked up CNN before being walked back, and ConEd had to officially refute it. That, and the sex diary stuff for New York Magazine.

            Quite a class act, no?

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:01:43 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Money goes in, money goes out. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      Obviously, all money you raise for a campaign can't be put directly back into the campaign for ads. There are specific costs that are incurred raising the money with any type of fundraising, but with direct mail, you're cutting it very close. (I assume most people don't lose money on this, but maybe I am wrong.) There's the cost of printing the materials, sending them out, and so on. And unlike with a web page, you spend on that stuff repeatedly.

      I've always wondered, though, whether this was an expensive but sometimes necessary first step. The target demographic for this seems to be older conservatives, but do people ever use it to build up a very basic but broad list once and then transition to more efficient, less expensive fundraising methods?

      Or, better yet, why doesn't the RNC do this, at least to get a sense of where the donors are? There are always proprietary issues, but unless I am missing something, it's mostly Republicans who do this. If it's openly sourced to some degree, would that really be so bad, aside from mutiple Republicans using it in a primary?

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:38:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WA HD-26 Special Elec: Almost $2 mil spent so far (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, James Allen, KingofSpades

    http://union-bulletin.com/...

    $2 million for a state legislative special election is absurd. About half of that has been spent by outside groups in support of the Democrat.

  •  CNN Democrats +8 on the generic ballot (16+ / 0-)

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:32:15 PM PDT

  •  PA-13 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, MrLiberal

    Marjorie Margolies mingles and makes money with Madeleine and Madeleine.  

    MM (the former MMM) is having a fundraiser on Halloween with State Rep. Madeleine Dean and former SOS Madeleine Albright; that Clinton connection sure comes in handy.

  •  NJ-Sen: Lonegan blames shutdown for loss (4+ / 0-)

    http://news.cincinnati.com/...

    Says he had momentum and that Lindsey Graham and John McCain should get primaried. I hate to tell him but Graham already has a primary oppoent and McCain isn't up again until 2016, when he probably retires anyway.

  •  WATN: Rick Hill - Under Investigation? (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.greatfallstribune.com/...

    A judge won’t grant former Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Hill immunity from a possible state investigation into a $500,000 campaign donation.

    U.S. Magistrate Judge Keith Strong ruled against Hill’s argument the threat of an investigation discourages him from giving the $300,000 left from his failed campaign to the state Republican Party for the 2014 elections.

    Hill argues that has a chilling effect on his First Amendment right to free speech.

  •  NM-Leg: Ads aimed at 2 Dems for blocking early ed (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.daily-times.com/...

    The New Mexico Center for Civic Policy on Monday began running spots targeting Democrats John Arthur Smith of Deming and John Sapien of Corrales.
  •  Forget the Vitter Amend, now its the 28th Amend! (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Rand Paul plans to introduce a constitutional amendment to require that all laws would apply equally to the public and to Congress, because of the nonexistent congressional exemption from Obamacare....2016 is starting early.

  •  An interesting analysis of 2012 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, KingTag, jncca

    Specifically, how Romney's Mormonism may have affected his numbers.

    Interesting points:

    On another question, 51.5 percent of Americans correctly identified that Mormonism is a Christian religion, while 48.5 percent of respondents reported that they thought that Mormonism is not a Christian religion. Respondents were also asked how many Mormons they knew personally. Fifty-three percent of survey respondents indicated that they did not know any Mormons personally, another 13 percent said they knew only one, and 23 percent said they knew somewhere between 2-9 Mormons personally.

    Finally, survey respondents were asked how much commonality they perceived between Mormon beliefs and their own. Their responses: 39 percent "nothing at all," 33 percent "a little," 21 percent "a moderate amount," 4 percent "a lot," and 3 percent "a great deal."

    Using a logistic regression statistical estimation procedure, I analyzed how individual-level attitudes toward Mormons affected the likelihood that someone would vote either for or against Romney in the 2012 general election. This procedure estimates the effect of a single variable (attitudes toward Mormons and Mormonism) on another variable (likelihood of voting for Romney), statistically controlling for a host of other factors including political ideology, demographics, and socioeconomic status. In these analyses, I used the same four Mormon attitude questions that were discussed above. The findings include:

        Republicans who do not consider Mormons to be Christian were about 5 percent less likely to vote for Romney than Republicans who do. Additional analysis revealed that while a few of these Republicans opted to vote for Obama or vote third-party, the majority decided simply to stay home and not vote at all.

        Democrats who think Mormons are not Christian were 2.5 percent less likely to vote for Romney than Democrats who do. This should be considered, though, in light of the fact that only about 7 percent of Democrats voted for Romney in the first place.

        I also examined the effect of individual feelings towards Mormons (the "feeling thermometer" measure), perceptions of shared religious beliefs with Mormons, and the number of Mormons respondents knew personally. None of these variables affected the likelihood of voting for Romney among Republicans, after controlling for other relevant factors (demographics, political opinions, socioeconomic status, etc.).

    It appears that most attitudes toward Mormons did not affect the likelihood of voting for Romney one way or another, with the exception of one key factor: whether or not a voter considers Mormons to be Christian. These results suggest that about 1 out of every 20 Republicans decided to stay home instead of turning out to vote for their party's nominee because they don't perceive Mormons as Christian.
    Also, an interesting factoid at the end; according to the guy who did this study, both Obama and Romney lost more votes from their own party based on religion or race than from the other party.
    It's interesting to note that research has also shown that Barack Obama lost many votes in the 2008 (and also probably 2012) election due to racial prejudice (see here, here, here, here, and here, e.g.). And there is further evidence that these votes were lost predominantly from Democrats and Independents (Republicans with racial prejudice were not going to vote for Obama in the first place). In a parallel way, most of Romney's lost votes came from members of his own party.

    The political science explanation is that Mitt Romney lost the election because he was the challenger in an election where the economic and foreign policy conditions were marginally favorable to the incumbent. While I have provided evidence that Romney very likely did lose some (mostly Republican) votes as a result of negative attitudes toward his Mormon faith, this was ultimately not the decisive factor in the outcome of the election.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:57:52 PM PDT

  •  Ohio is expanding Medicaid, will be interesting to (8+ / 0-)

    see if GOP campaigns against this in 2016.

  •  Ohio will expand Medicaid (13+ / 0-)

    Kasich bypassed the legislature and went to the Controlling Board(is there a worse name for a government agency?) and got their support, 5-2 today.

    There will be lawsuits over this, and if they have a chance of success or not.

    A few of the electoral implications: the tea party is angrier at Kasich now, but this obviously helps in the general, and take away an issue for Fitzgerald.

    Also, if the expansion is upheld, that's 275k people in a key swing state who will gain healthcare coverage. A 2016 presidential nominee would essentially be campaigning on getting rid of their healthcare if they campaign on full repeal of ACA.

    link.  

    •  Can it help us run against the legislature? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, jj32, LordMike, KingofSpades

      It's a much tougher sell, I think, but perhaps it's doable.

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:47:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The legislature is the one that might bring (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        the lawsuit, from what I understand.

        So yeah, in that case, I think we could run against the legislature.

      •  It's the house crazies that are planning to sue... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, jj32

        The Senate pretty much has Kasich's back on this.  

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 03:24:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Isn't the House relatively easier for us anyway? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 03:26:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes. We've won it before... (0+ / 0-)

            The Seante is almost impossible, not because of Gerrymandering so much, but the Seante isn't full of crazies like the house, and no real dems are willing to challenge the ones who might be vulnerable.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 03:58:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Could Kasich want to lose the House? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              It would make his next four years much easier - if he has WH aspirations, or even VP aspirations.  

              Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

              by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 04:14:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The house has been a pain to Kasich's backside... (0+ / 0-)

                ...his entire term.  Even the crazy stuff that Kasich wanted wasn't crazy enough for them, and they blocked a lot of Kasich's tax and budget stuff.  It wouldn't entirely surprise me if he did want them gone, especially since it's become clear that there are a group of dems in the statehouse willing to roll over for the gop in exchange for crumbs or more power over their districts.

                GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                by LordMike on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 04:47:48 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  Judge Carlo Key (12+ / 0-)

    A judge in Bexar County has switched from the Republican Party and will now run for re-election as a Democrat. He announced with this very very stirring video that made me cry:

    http://www.towleroad.com/...

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 04:02:17 PM PDT

  •  NJ-03 - Democratic candidate is a great choice (0+ / 0-)

    Aimee Belgard was elected as a Burlington County Freeholder (New Jersey's equivalent to County Commissioner) in 2012, so she's a cut above the "some dude" stature the description "attorney" would seemingly provide. She's also a tenacious campaigner and very well liked among Democratic activists in New Jersey - important for building a strong enough ground game for a district like this.

    NJ-03 (Jon Runyan) is divided into Burlington County (competitive politics, won big by Obama) and Ocean County, which gave Lonegan 64% in the Special US Senate election last week. Belgard's name recognition in Burlington will give her a good start on the race, and probably makes her the best candidate we could get to take on Runyan. I'd still rate this a "Leans GOP" race at best, due to Ocean's GOP base posing a formidable obstacle to our taking back the district.

    "We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

    by MrLiberal on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 04:27:54 PM PDT

    •  She's not running, is she? (0+ / 0-)

      Kind of early for her to make the jump.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 04:46:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She was mentioned in the Politico article (0+ / 0-)
        Spurred on by the shutdown and debt standoff, other Democratic candidates are also close to launching campaigns. New Jersey attorney Aimee Belgard, who’s been in talks with the DCCC since early July, is considering challenging GOP Rep. Jon Runyan.
        Politico article

        I agree that the timing's a little close for my liking, but the reality is that Democrats have a small bench of candidates that are both willing to run and have credibility. That Belgard was apparently approached by the DCCC this summer tells me that the D-trip feels the same way.

        "We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

        by MrLiberal on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 05:33:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  That's still a pretty low office (0+ / 0-)

      It's only barely a step above some dude.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 04:50:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  county commissioner in a county with over 450,000 (5+ / 0-)

        people. That's not close to some dude. Only one member of the House from my state had anywhere near that big a base, or number of constituents before being elected to congress. And they are elected at-large in Burlington County. That's not something to sneeze at. Maybe having been only elected in 2012 is, but not the position itself.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 05:03:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hmm (0+ / 0-)

          Consider my opinion slightly upgraded.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 05:08:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Putting this into perspective (0+ / 0-)

          Imagine a hypothetical district where a potential Democratic candidate has been elected to a post that represents 60% of the district.

          That candidate, regardless of how long they've been in that post, would be a great recruit for the House district if they  have the necessary political chops. I definitely believe Belgard does, and that's why I think she'd be an excellent candidate to run against Runyan.

          "We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

          by MrLiberal on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 05:39:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Sorry, I should have clarified (0+ / 0-)

            Burlington County voters (where Belgard, as James pointed out won a county-wide post) cast about 60% of the votes from NJ-03 in 2012.
            Runyan edged out Shelly Adler (John Adler's widow) by 3500 votes out of nearly 200,000 cast in Burlington (less than 2%) while winning the smaller, Ocean County portion by 25,000 (a 19% margin).  

            Since redistricting lopped off heavily Democratic Cherry Hill from the seat, it's going to take a strong Democratic candidate from Burlington to give us a shot here. That's why Belgard is a great catch for us, should she decide to run.

            "We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

            by MrLiberal on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 05:45:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It also cut off a few retirement-heavy communities (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MrLiberal

              like Long Beach Island (where my family and I would go at least once a summer in my grade school days) and picked up Bordentown and, much more importantly, Brick Township.  Never been to Brick.  Dems had a good year in 2011 ironically due to a tax revolt (they won the council majority, but those are nonpartisan).  But yeah, losing Cherry Hill may have moved the needle away by ~1% but Cherry Hill Dem voters are more reliably blue than most of BurlCo.   Also, the Camden County Dems are much more powerful than their BurlCo counterparts.

              "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

              by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:14:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Bill Hughes, Jr. or Jeff Van Drew in NJ-2? (5+ / 0-)

      I'm annoyed that a mostly party-line vote like LoBiondo can't be beat.  If he can finally be pushed to retire, I will be so happy.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 06:17:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah the guy voted for EFCA and environment. stuff (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, CF of Aus

        but that was years ago.  At this point it's like a family of strict vegetarians hiring a cook who is a butcher on the side.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:52:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Didn't see it mentioned here (7+ / 0-)

    But in addition to CNN showing D+8, everyone's favorite pollster, Rasmussen, shows the generic ballot at D+7

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home)

    by Ryan Dack on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 04:36:45 PM PDT

  •  anybody know what date Booker will be sworn in? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, jj32, bythesea, askew
    •  Next week (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, sapelcovits, askew

      Senate's out this week.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 04:44:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I may be mistaken (0+ / 0-)

      but I believe when Booker is sworn in, he'll retroactively have a seniority date of October 15, because in special elections the new Member of Congress assumes office the day of their election.

      At least that's the way it works in the House.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 02:34:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  OR state senate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, aamail6

    Robert Bruce, a small business consultant from Sandy, will challenge Republican state senator Chuck Thomsen of Hood River in SD-26, which is about D+2. We'll see if he's a good candidate. Democrat Rick Metsger held the district until he retired in 2010, and it was actually made a bit friendlier in redistricting, so it's a winnable district. We also picked up one of the state house districts in it last year, and an underfunded Dem challenger in the other district lost only narrowly.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 04:51:19 PM PDT

  •  MI-Gov - Snyder to shutter controversial NERD Fund (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MetroGnome, gabjoh

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Seems to me Snyder has something to hide here.  Having secret donors to a private fund to somebody who then works hand-in-hand with Snyder in day to day Michigan matters, but outside of FOIA requests since not on public payroll is dodgy as hell.  I want to know if some of these supersecret NERD fund donors are now cashing in on Detroit bankruptcy.  

    Schauer and Dems need to keep hitting him on the secrecy of the donors and ask what is Snyder have to hide.  Treat it like Obama handled the Romney taxes issue.  Really dog him over it, and if Snyder really doesn't want to release the names, than start making up reasons why he might not want to - make it really painful politically for him to fight to keep the names secret.  

    Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

    by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 05:14:08 PM PDT

  •  Santorum to lead strike force to save Cuccinelli (9+ / 0-)

    Santorum to lead “strike force” to save Cuccinelli’s disastrous run for VA Gov

    http://americablog.com/...

    "Of course, the bigger question on everyone’s minds is whether Rick Santorum can save Ken Cuccinelli from Dan Savage."

  •  MN-Gov (5+ / 0-)

    Dayton's reelection campaign strategy: The un-session.
    http://m.startribune.com/...

    Interesting strategy, considering his very ambitious 2013 session.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 05:24:37 PM PDT

  •  VA: GOP focusing all attention on Obenshain? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, bythesea, sulthernao

    The Republican State Leadership Committee seems to have shifted focus, sending almost 1.4 million to Obenshain in the last month, downplaying the governor's race.

    Beth Reinhard points out Obenshain's record isnt exactly moderate, but that he is benefiting from bring a lower profile race. Also, remember reading about the first debate with Herring, and Obenshain seemed to do a good job at coming off as a moderate.

    That worries me, hopefully Herring steps it up. AG is obviously an important post and well positioned for a run for governor.

  •  Anybody Else Watching the Calgary Election Returns (0+ / 0-)

    ????
    Or is it just me?

  •  R.I.P. Major Owens (7+ / 0-)

    The successor to Shirley Chisholm and predecessor to current NY-9 incumbent Yvette Clarke died at 77.

    https://twitter.com/...

  •  Another horrible poll for the GOP (10+ / 0-)

    ABC News/Washington Post poll, (PDF)

    http://www.langerresearch.com/...

    Democrats' numbers are not great but the Republican numbers are horrid. An example

    Fav/Unfav

    Obama 50/48
    Democratic Party 46/49
    Republican Party 32/63
    Tea Party 26/59

    Vote Democratic. We're not perfect-but they're NUTS! - Barney Frank

    by Minnesota Mike on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:22:12 PM PDT

  •  New WaPo poll: 53% blame GOP for shutdown (4+ / 0-)

    29% Obama, almost identical to the 1996 numbers, when 50% blamed Republicans, and 27% blamed Clinton.

    But they also have record high unfavorability for Dems(46-49) and record low favorability(26-59) for the tea party. Obama's approval is 48-49 and favorables at 50-48.

    Just 12% approve of the job Congress is doing, and a plurality(43-47) disapprove of the job their own representative is doing.

    Seems to suggest Dem gains next year, but maybe not winning back the House. At least not yet, based on these numbers.

    link.  

    •  That poll has Dems up 11 on generic ballot (8+ / 0-)

      And the overall polling average for the congressional ballot seems to have Dems up by about 8 points.  In 2006 Dems won the national house vote by 8 points and took a 233-202 majority.  I know we have a harder hill to climb with the new maps, but I have a hard time believing 8 points would not be enough for at least a slim majority in the 220-225'ish range.

      Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

      by ChadmanFL on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:50:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Australian Capital Territory (6+ / 0-)

    passed Marriage Equality. It'll face a constitutional challenge from the new Attorney General.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/...

    •  It's (0+ / 0-)

      too bad when Labor had a chance to pass marriage equality last year almost half of the Labor MPs in the lower house of Federal Parliament including Julia Gillard, at least ten ministers joined the Coalition and voted the bill down!

      One of the no votes was Kevin Rudd who later changed his support to pro marriage equality when he thought it could win Labor votes in the seats of Brisbane and Melbourne.

      http://www.abc.net.au/...

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:36:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dumb question, but how do you embed videos? (0+ / 0-)

    I want to put a video in a DailyKos diary, but I haven't been able to find a guide for how to do that.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:47:00 PM PDT

    •  From Youtube? (0+ / 0-)

      It's really easy, you just go to the infobox of any video, go to "Embed", and copy/paste the code.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 02:37:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Embedding is discouraged on DKE.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aamail6, Gygaxian

      ...'cos it causes problems with users who have primitive iPhones and insist on using Mobile Safari, which is the worst web browser ever made.

      Because we are Democrats and care about those who are handicapped by inferior Apple technology, we make the best accommodations we can for them . ;-)

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 05:16:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ah, okay. How do I insert a video otherwise? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Or is that what embeding is?

        Or should I just insert the screenshot I want of the video, and provide a transcript?

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:12:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian

          Click on the share button under teh video, then click on embed.  there will be a bunch of code in the window.  Copy and paste that into the dKos comment and it usually works.  Lately there have been some problems with embedding.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 01:18:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Generic Ballot (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ndrwmls10, James Allen, Skaje

    Let's say the average generic ballot is Democrats +8 at this point. That means with strict application of the generic ballot, any district up to R+4 is eminently winnable. Of course some districts have more swing voters than others, and there are always the Demosaur districts in the south.

    The generic ballot polling matches up nicely with PPP's polling of individual races. Thus it makes sense that conservative districts like PA-16 (Pitts, R+5), FL-07 (Mica, R+4), and NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen, R+6) are competitive with a generic Democrat.

    It's an opportunity, not a guarantee.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 10:22:44 PM PDT

  •  Mike Bloomberg (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    planning on spending $1.1 million on ads on Terry McAuliffe's behalf. Do you think it would be possible if Bloomberg could spend that same amount of money on Mark Herring? Herring does after all support gun control like McAuliffe.

    Michael Bloomberg’s pro-gun-control super PAC will drop $1.1 million on ads for Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the final two weeks of the Virginia governor’s race.

    The billionaire New York City mayor’s money will be siphoned through Independence USA PAC into broadcast television commercials in the D.C. market, according to two sources tracking the air war.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:40:49 PM PDT

  •  Texas Judge Has Trouble Voting (0+ / 0-)

    Texas Judge Has Trouble Voting Under New Texas ID Law Because of Maiden Name

    http://electionlawblog.org/...

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