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Leading Off:
• WI-Gov: Marquette Law School has a new poll of next year's gubernatorial race and it looks like things have the potential to be very close. A very slight 49 to 47 percent approve of Republican Gov. Scott Walker's job performance and that is reflected in the general election match-ups. Businesswoman and Madison School Board member Mary Burke, Walker's only credible challenger so far, starts out with little name recognition but trails by a slim 47 to 45 margin.
The results are pretty much the same if state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout jumps in the race; very few voters have an opinion of her personally but she trails 47 to 45. State Assemblymember Peter Barca would do a bit worse if he ran, trailing Walker 48 to 42. Most voters seem to have a firm opinion of Walker and are ready to vote for or against him regardless of who the Democrats end up nominating.
Senate:
• KY-Sen: You can say a lot about the ultra conservative Senate Conservatives Fund, but they put their money where their mouth is. The group's PAC is spending $330,000 on a new TV ad targeting Sen. Mitch McConnell for his work on the compromise bill that ended the government shutdown and raised the debt ceiling. The ad faults McConnell for voting for the bill that preserved ObamaCare and is seeking to blame the whole thing on the Senator (something anyone who watched a single second of the 2009-2010 healthcare reform debate ought to find hilarious). The Senate Conservatives Fund is hoping to boost McConnell's Republican primary foe businessman Matt Bevin.
• LA-Sen, NC-Sen: The Koch brothers funded Americans for Prosperity is going on the air in these two Senate contests, hitting Democratic Sens. Mary Landrieu and Kay Hagan for their support for ObamaCare. The buy is reportedly $1.7 million in North Carolina and $500,000 in Louisianan, with an extra $100,000 each for "grassroots and social media efforts".
• OR-Sen: The Republican field to take on Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley grew by one more: Monica Wehby, who's been floating her name for several months, formally jumped into the race on Tuesday. Wehby is a pediatric neurosurgeon who hasn't run for office before and whose name rec probably starts near zero, but has been behind-the-scenes active in the nexus between politics and medicine. She was chief petitioner on a 2004 ballot measure that would have limited damages in medical lawsuits, and she is on the board of the American Medical Association. It's not clear whether she can self fund, but at any rate she probably has a lot of deep-pocketed colleagues she can reach out to. (David Jarman)
Gubernatorial:
• MD-Gov: We haven't heard much about Democratic Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger's gubernatorial aspirations in a while. However, Ruppersberger is still very much interested: His communications director says he'll decide by Thanksgiving. With Attorney General Doug Gansler's campaign going up in smoke (or perhaps going up in Kool-Aid) and Delegate Heather Mizeur likely still mostly unknown, Ruppersberger may see a new opportunity to challenge Lt. Governor Anthony Brown as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
• NJ-Gov: Because some elections are more interesting as a hiaku than as an actual race:
Christie beats Buono/ Quinnipiac tells us so/ Nothing new to see.
• SC-Gov: On behalf of Conservative Intel, Harper Polling has a new survey out of next year's likely rematch between Republican Gov. Nikki Haley and Democratic state Sen. Vince Sheheen. Harper finds the state with very lukewarm feelings toward Haley, with her job approval at 42/43. However, she still leads Sheheen 48-39. This contrasts with a recent Clarity Campaign Labs poll for the Democratic Governors Association that gives Haley a much smaller lead at 44-40, but a better approval rating at 40/35.
House:
• Battle For the House: After grabbing a ton of attention weeks ago and focusing attention on the increasingly competitive battle for the House of Representatives in 2014, PPP is back on the beat, partnering with SEIU to look at eight House districts. The focus here was on the immigration bill, and highlighting the popularity of the measure in eight geographically distinct districts ranging from suburban Philadelphia (PA-08) to the heavily Latino Inland Empire of California (CA-31).
What's of value to our readers, of course, is the head-to-heads, which PPP once again does by pairing the GOP incumbents to a generic challenger. Here were the nums in this go-round, with trendlines from the previous endeavors by PPP/MoveOn (for more details on those earlier polls, click here and here:
- CA-31: Gary Miller (R) 38 (39), Generic Democrat 46 (48)
- IL-13: Rodney Davis (R) 44 (43), Generic Democrat 42 (44)
- MN-02: John Kline (R) 40 (--), Generic Democrat 46 (--)
- NJ-02: Frank LoBiondo (R) 47 (46), Generic Democrat 38 (40)
- NV-03: Joe Heck (R) 45 (47), Generic Democrat 45 (44)
- NY-11: Michael Grimm (R) 46 (47), Generic Democrat 41 (43)
- OH-14: David Joyce (R) 37 (43), Generic Democrat 42 (44)
- PA-08: Michael Fitzpatrick (R) 46 (44), Generic Democrat 43 (46)
As one might expect, given that the previous PPP/MoveOn polls were either conducted during the shutdown or in its immediate wake, the GOP numbers are not quite as dire as they were. But they also are nowhere near what one might call a "recovery", either. Of course, the usual caveats about matching a known quantity with a generic opponent certainly apply. But we have started to see some true head-to-head balloting in recent weeks that seems to confirm PPP's general thrust here. (Steve Singiser)
• AL-01: Former state Sen. Bradley Byrne has scored the US Chamber of Commerce's support in the rapidly approaching Nov. 5 Republican primary runoff for this seat. The establishment-favored Byrne already has the backing of the NRA and former Rep. Jo Bonner in his race against tea partying businessman Dean Young. The Chamber has not been hesitant to open its wallet to help its preferred candidates and could give Byrne an extra push toward the finish line in this dark red district.
• AR-02: Republicans scored their first two candidates in this seat. Little Rock banker French Hill has declared his candidacy after being encouraged by likely Republican gubernatorial nominee Asa Hutchinson. Republican state Rep. Ann Clemmer is also planning to announce her campaign for this open seat on Wednesday. Former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays is already running as a Democrat: It is likely both fields will grow.
• FL-13: The date for the special election in this swing seat is still not set, and the Republican field has yet to solidify here. Potential candidates include deceased Rep. Bill Young's widow Beverly, his son Bill Young II, and his brother Tom. Notable non-Young family members contemplating the race include former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker, former Pinellas Commissioner Neil Brickfield, Clearwater Mayor George Cretekos, former Clearwater Mayor Frank Hibbard, former Young aide David Jolly, publisher Michael Pinson, and Pinellas Commissioner Karen Seel. Additionally, former state Rep. Larry Crow is already in.
The Democratic field is mercifully looking a lot smaller, with Pinellas Commissioner Janet Long announcing she will not run. 2012 nominee Jessica Ehrlich is already in the race, and former state Chief Financial Officer and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink is still considering.
• NJ-03: This might be chalked up as another one of the DCCC's post-shutdown recruiting scores: here's a local elected official running against Jon Runyan in the swingy 3rd, a 52% Obama district spanning from Philadelphia's suburbs to the Jersey Shore and one of the few remaining GOP-held Obama districts needing a challenger. Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard filed an FEC statement of candidacy last week. Belgard may not be a household name since she was elected to the county council last year (and was previously a town committee member in Edgewater Park), but she has a lot of constituents: there's a substantial overlap between the 3rd and Burlington County, which has a population of 448K and where the Freeholders are elected at-large, countywide. (David Jarman)
• PA-08: Army veteran Kevin Strouse is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination to take on Mike Fitzpatrick, but he doesn't have a clear path yet. Primary opponent Shaughnessy Naughton scored her first union nod from the Ironworkers Local Union 401. Naughton also has the support of the Women's Campaign Fund and Women Under Forty PAC.
• VA-Gov: Better late than never I guess: Both President Obama and Vice President Biden will be campaigning with Terry McAuliffe in the final days of the race. Michelle Obama will also be recording a radio ad for McAuliffe.
PPP, on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters, has another survey of the early vote. When the results are combined with their last survey, McAuliffe leads Cuccinelli 55 to 40 among Virginians who say they have already cast ballots. For the first time PPP is also surveying the Attorney General race and finds Herring leads Obenshain 54-42 among early voters.
Cuccinelli also has a new ad out, portraying McAuliffe in the usual Republican terms as a tax and spend ObamaCare lover. In the words of the great political philosopher Homer Simpson, "Boring!"
• WI-01: Amardeep Kaleka, a filmmaker and the son of one of the victims in last year's Oak Creek shooting, got some buzz when he entered the race to take on Paul Ryan. However, he enters the race with a pretty big liability: He recently released a documentary focusing on extra-terrestrial life that doesn't exactly make Kaleka seem credible:
The important question, he says, is not whether ETs exist, but whether they have come to Earth, and if so what energy sources they are using to travel here. Much of his film focuses on the belief that oil interests and their allies in government have suppressed the existence of alternative energy sources.
Kaleka's theories will probably be good enough to get him elected to the Federation Council, but local Democrats will probably prefer 2012 nominee Rob Zerban for Congress.
Other races:
• Charlotte Mayor: Both parties got some good news for the Nov. 5 general election in the Hornet's Nest. Republican former Councilor Edwin Peacock holds a dominant financial advantage over Democratic nominee and Mayor Pro Tem Patrick Cannon, out-raising him $350,000 to $266,000 overall. However, early voting looks good for Cannon: Registered Democrats are currently outvoting registered Republicans 64 percent to 20, with African Americans making up 55 percent of these early voters. It's dangerous to read too much into early voting but overall I'd rather be Cannon than Peacock right now.
• VA-AG: New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is stepping up to help Democrat Mark Herring in what's become Virginia's only competitive statewide race this year. Bloomberg's SuperPAC Independence USA is spending $1 million to hit Republican nominee Mark Obenshain on gun control; this follows the NRA's announced $500,000 attacking Herring. Planned Parenthood is also getting into the act, putting down $100,000 on an ad portraying Obenshain as a socially conservative extremist.
Grab Bag:
• Deaths: Former Missouri Democratic Rep. Ike Skelton passed away Monday at the age of 81. Skelton represented his central Missouri district from 1977 to 2011, and rose to become Armed Services Chair in his final four years in the House. Skelton was well liked in his conservative district, winning reelection easily until the 2010 Republican wave: Skelton was defeated by now-Rep. Vicky Hartzler by a fairly narrow 50 to 45 percent. Our thoughts go out to Skelton's family and friends.
• History: Time has a fascinating graph of Congressional dynasties, charting every family that produced at least two members. The oldest dynasty is easily the Frelinghuysen's of New Jersey. Fredrick Frelinghuysen served as a Federalist and five members of his family have served in subsequent Congresses, with Republican Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen continuing the tradition today.
There are some surprises in here. For instance, the legendary Henry Clay has a relative currently serving in the form of Louisiana Republican Rep. John Fleming (apparently the apple has fallen very far from the tree). Altogether, Time estimates 37 sitting members of Congress have at least one relative who served there in the past.
• Polarization: Gerrymandering is an easy-to-blame culprit for today's increased polarization (and, granted, is partly responsible). But as I recently discussed (and Sean Trende, before me), there's a lot more to it, and much of that is behavioral: the decline in ticket-splitting, and simply more coherence in how both candidates' and individual voters' ideologies and party choices line up (as seen in the precipitously dwindling numbers of Dixiecrats and Rockefeller Republicans).
Alan Abramowitz shared some helpful charts with the Fix at the Washington Post that shed more light on this hollowing out of the middle ground, comparing the 1976 and 2012 elections. At the House level, the majority of the CDs were competitive in 1976 (falling within a R+5 to D+5 band), while in the 2012 chart, a majority are pushed off to the sides (in the R+20 and D+20 realms). Now, a gerrymandering-blamer would say that just points to how there was little gerrymandering back in 1976... but Abramowitz also includes a chart of how the presidential vote broke down at the state level, which of course can't be gerrymandered.
Even at the state level, it shows the same pattern, just less pronounced: nearly half the states in '76 went to Carter or Ford by less than a 5% margin, while more than half the states in 2012 went to Obama or Romney by more than a 15% margin. Now, it's possible that '76 is a particularly cherry-picked election, since Carter overperformed, by both 60s and 00s Dem standards, in Dixiecrat-dominated deep south states, while Ford overperformed in northeastern and western areas where the moderate GOP tradition was still alive ... but the overall trend is quite clear, of the bulge in the middle getting pushed down and squeezed out to the margins. (David Jarman)