Not the best news to come out of PPP today:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
PPP's newest poll of next year's race for Governor of Texas finds Republican Greg Abbott expanding his lead over Democrat Wendy Davis. Abbott now has a 15 point advantage at 50/35. That's up a good amount from our last poll, conducted the week of Davis' famous filibuster, when Abbott led just 48/40. But it's pretty comparable to what we found in January when he had a 46/34 lead.
As Davis has become better known to Texans, her negatives have risen. 36% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 42% with an unfavorable one. In June it was a positive 39/29 spread, meaning she's dropped a net 16 points since then. Voters are kind of indifferent toward Abbott, with 35% rating him favorably, 32% unfavorably, and 33% not having an opinion either way. For the most part though if you're a Republican in Texas who voters don't hate, you're going to be in pretty decent shape.
For a Democrat to win in Texas they need to do 2 things: win independents by a decent sized margin, and get double digit crossover support from Republicans. Right now Davis is falling short on both of those fronts. With independents she's managing only a tie at 44%. And she's winning over only 6% of Republicans, far less than the share of Democrats who say right now that they lean toward Abbott. Of course she has a year to try to change that. - PPP, 11/5/13
Those numbers are different from the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune poll:
http://thehill.com/...
Abbott leads Davis 40 percent to 34 percent in the poll, from the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune.
Davis became a favorite of national Democrats following her filibuster of a law to limit abortion rights in Texas, and the poll shows she's better known than he is by the voters. She faces an uphill battle to defeat the well-funded Abbott in the heavily Republican state.
The poll of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 18-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. - The Hill, 11/4/13
PPP surveyed 500 Texas voters from November 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.4%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP points out that Davis would have a better shot at Rick Perry (R. TX) due to his low popularity numbers, 45/50. But this poll isn't all bad news:
One thing that could improve Davis' prospects is if 2010 Republican Gubernatorial candidate Debra Medina goes through with an independent campaign for Governor next year. She pulls 9% and with her in the mix Abbott's lead gets reduced to 10 points with him at 47% and Davis at 37%. She pulls enough independents away from Abbott to give Davis the lead with them in a three way contest.
There is some good news for Davis within the poll. Voters narrowly oppose the abortion law that put her in the spotlight, 40/41, including 37/48 opposition among independent voters. Concern that she may have difficulty in the election because she's seen as too liberal on that particular issue may not be warranted. - PPP, 11/5/13
Anything can happen in a year and we knew this race was going to be tough. But we can't let PPP's poll discourage us. If you want to get involved with Davis' campaign, you can do so here:
http://www.wendydavistexas.com/