Jon Runyan
After just two terms, GOP Rep. Jon Runyan
is retiring. Barack Obama actually carried NJ-03 (a district spanning Burlington and Ocean Counties in south New Jersey)
52-47, so Democrats should have a legitimate chance of picking it up next year, especially since Dems won here the last time the seat was open, in 2008. (Runyan, who hadn't held office before but was well-known locally thanks to many years as a lineman for the Philadelphia Eagles, defeated Democratic incumbent John Adler as part of the 2010 wave.)
Runyan's departure is very much a surprise, since he's only 39, and there hadn't been any sign of scandal or even great vulnerability going in to 2014, at least no more than with any other typical swing-district House Republican. He offered the usual platitudes about spending time with his family in his announcement, but the Philadelphia Inquirer also revealed, via anonymous sources, that Runyan, moderate by today's GOP standards, "has grown frustrated with life in Congress, and particularly the tea party wing that has held increasing sway in the House GOP."
Runyan's retirement creates one of the few open seats in 2014 that's genuinely swingy, so it's likely to draw top-tier challengers on both sides of the aisle. So who might that be? On the Dem side, there's already one solid contestant, Burlington Co. Freeholder Aimee Belgard, who filed several weeks ago and will be formally announcing later this week. Even in Belgard's challenge gets some credit for helping nudge Runyan out of the race, though, she may not have the Dem field to herself: state Assemblyman Herb Conaway (who also ran and lost in NJ-03 in 2004) says he's "thinking about" the race. (State Asm. Troy Singleton is another name that has been floated for the Dems, but he hasn't said anything yet, and at any rate appears to live in NJ-01.)
The only Republican who has said anything publicly about his interest so far is Randy Brown, the mayor of Evesham Township, who says he's "exploring" the race. Other Republicans whose names have been mentioned by others include state Sen. Dawn Addiego, state Sen. Chris Connors, former Burlington Co. Freeholder Aubrey Fenton, Burlington Co. Freeholder Joseph Donnelly, Toms River Twp. Councilor Maurice Hill Jr., and Berkeley Mayor Carmen Amato Jr.
The Republican who would be the most imposing opponent in a general election, though, is moderate state Sen. Diane Allen, who was prevented by health problems from running here in 2010. However, Allen has already taken her name out of contention this time, which is definitely a boost to Dem odds here.