Map from Taipei Times.
China cranked up the pressure on Japan this week, promulgating a newly defined air defense zone that overlaps Japan's in the East China Sea. It includes the "disputed" Senkaku Islands of Japan. This new Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) is yet another signal of how China is pushing the region towards war. Join me below the DKOS infinity sign for discussion of the situation...
The new ADIZ was extensively discussed in the media in the area. One of my local newspapers listed several useful observations:
China’s ministry of Defense issued a statement on its Web site yesterday regarding the establishment of the zone.
The statement was accompanied by a map and a set of rules regarding the zone, which stated that all aircraft must notify Chinese authorities and are subject to emergency military measures if they do not identify themselves or do not comply with orders from Beijing.
...
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方), who also sits on the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, suggested that China’s move was aimed at Japan, as China did not include Taiwan’s Pengjia Islet (彭佳嶼) in its East China Sea air defense identification zone.
Li Fung, a Hong Kong-based Chinese military expert, said that China’s move can be regarded as an effort to bolster Beijing’s sovereignty claims over the islands.
It also showed the Chinese government is preparing for military conflict with Japan over the disputed islands, Li said.
Note that last comment, which I have bolded. The "dispute" over the Senkakus is entirely of Chinese manufacture and dates from 1971. Prior to that period there was no dispute -- it was invented by Chinese expansionists only after the announcement of the possibility of oil under the sea nearby. In posts
here at Dkos and
here in The Diplomat I supply links and images of a number of maps to make that clear. This "dispute" is a case of pure territorial expansion -- as a commenter on my popular Taiwan blog put it, the Chinese claim to the Senkakus is like a man who claims your left big toe and then asks to negotiate when you refuse. As I observed in the previous DKOS post, lurking behind this claim to the Senkakus is an extremely dangerous claim to Okinawa.
You will hear many claims by Chinese that the Senkakus were administrated by China prior to 1895, out of Taiwan. Or that the Ming or Qing dynasty incorporated these islands. These are simply lies told or repeated by Chinese and others to justify this expansion and to link Taiwan and claims to the Senkakus. There was never any administration of the Senkakus by China nor did the Ming or Qing dynasties incorporate them. The two governments knew they existed and sometimes official vessels sailed by the islands, but that was the extent of it. Such claims involve massive and selective twisting and distortion of history -- just as European expansionists throughout history have done. I am sure everyone is familiar with the histories of the US, France, Germany, Spain, and England and can understand how such episodes of expansion end: badly, with many deaths.
The US and Japan have a mutual defense treaty and US officials have repeatedly stated that the Senkakus fall within the purview of that treaty. Any Chinese move against the Senkakus could drag the US into the conflict and will inevitably if it goes on long enough.
China has been conducting a skillful campaign of escalating against Japan, beginning about several years ago, starting with incursions of aircraft and submarines and fishing boats, mixing its approaches, but always keeping the pressure on. In China-centric presentations the claim is usually made that the problem moved into high gear by Japan "nationalizing" the islands in 2012, but a diligent search can easily locate many incidents prior to that time; the nationalization was a defensive move against them. This ADIZ is the latest twist of the knife by Beijing. As WSJ observed:
An ADIZ isn't defined in international law. Basically, each country draws up its own and operates on that basis. Therefore, setting up the ADIZ doesn't have any legal meaning for China or affect Japan's territorial rights. However, it is unclear to what extent they will enforce it. In general the situation is getting riskier," said Narushige Michishita of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.
The US State Department responded immediately:
"The United States is deeply concerned about China's announcement that they've established an "East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone." This unilateral action constitutes an attempt to change the status quo in the East China Sea. Escalatory action will only increase tensions in the region and create risks of an incident.
Freedom of overflight and other internationally lawful uses of sea and airspace are essential to prosperity, stability, and security in the Pacific. We don't support efforts by any State to apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter its national airspace. The United States does not apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter U.S. national airspace. We urge China not to implement its threat to take action against aircraft that do not identify themselves or obey orders from Beijing.
We have urged China to exercise caution and restraint, and we are consulting with Japan and other affected parties, throughout the region. We remain steadfastly committed to our allies and partners, and hope to see a more collaborative and less confrontational future in the Pacific."
Today the papers were reporting that Japan was warning this escalation could lead to accidental confrontations between the air forces of the two sides over the area.
On many discussion groups the move was being compared to Hitler's remilitarization of the Rhineland or withdrawal from the arms limitation conferences. Many are reading it as a signal of what is to come. The ADIZ reduces everyone's room to maneuver in the area, and seems to be intended to draw a response from Tokyo and Washington. The scary thing is that if no response is made because people feel -- quite rationally, fearing confrontation and fearing that prophecies of war may become self-fulfilling -- that the time is not yet ripe for it, China will ratchet up the pressure once more. This game can only end in a confrontation which, as Japan pointed out today, could end in “unexpected occurrence of accidents in the airspace.” Or something much worse.