It's all fine and good to have the President endorse a rise in the minimum wage, but when we know that the chance of it passing the House of Representatives is less than Boehner going home sober on New Year's Eve, it behooves us to ponder how the 'Fight for $15' is really going to be won.
The answer is very likely to be: Blue state by Blue state, Blue city by Blue city. Which leaves one to wonder what will happen in Red and swing states as the contrast in the minimum wage becomes more and more dramatic.
First, let's look at the states that have higher minimum wages than the Federal minimum.
States with higher than federal minimum wage as of 1/14:
Washington ($9.32), Oregon ($9.10), Vermont ($8.73), Connecticut ($8.70), Illinois ($8.25), District of Columbia ($8.25), Nevada ($8.25), New Jersey ($8.25), California ($8.00), Rhode Island ($8.00), Massachusetts ($8.00), New York ($8.00), Ohio ($7.85), Arizona ($7.80), Florida ($7.79) Alaska ($7.75), Montana ($7.80), New Mexico ($7.50), Missouri ($7.50).
We need to get to 13th on the list before we hit a closely divided state in the last Presidential election (Ohio), and 14th before we get to a Red state (Arizona).
Below, I cite some of the battles in Blue states and Blue cities that have or will be taking place to increase the minimum wage significantly above the Federal limit. Unsurprisingly, there are none that I've seen mention of in Red states.
Massachusetts:
The Massachusetts Senate recently voted to increase the minimum wage from $8 to $11, which would give the state the highest minimum wage in the country... The bill would allow for the minimum wage to adjust for inflation. According to the Globe, it would increase to $9 an hour and an additional dollar each year until 2015.
California:
((Silicon Valley Millionaire and libertarian)) Mr. Unz is pursuing a goal that has stymied liberals: raising the minimum wage. He plans to pour his own money into a ballot measure to increase the minimum wage in California to $10 an hour in 2015 and $12 in 2016, which would make it by far the highest in the nation... Earlier this year, Gov. Jerry Brown, a Democrat, signed legislation to increase the minimum wage to $10 an hour in 2016... The California Chamber of Commerce labeled the bill a "job killer."
and
California has become the first state in the nation to commit to raising the minimum wage to $10 per hour, with the increase to take place gradually through the start of 2016...
The law raises minimum pay in the most populous U.S. state from its current rate of $8 per hour to $9 by July 2014, and $10 by January 2016, well above the current federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour.
and in San Francisco
San Francisco already has the highest minimum wage in the country, currently $10.55 an hour and set to rise to $10.74 on Jan. 1.
After a wave of protests across the country by fast food chain workers for a $15-per-hour minimum wage, and calls from the White House to Silicon Valley for increases in base pay for low-wage workers, Lee said Tuesday he wants voters to significantly raise the minimum wage in San Francisco.
"San Francisco is an expensive place for working families," Lee said in a statement sent out less than 24 hours after he returned from a trip to Asia. "I believe the time has come to bring an increase in the minimum wage to the voters, and I will support a ballot initiative in 2014 that significantly raises the minimum wage to help San Francisco's lowest paid workers keep pace with rising consumer costs."
Exactly how high Lee wants to see the city's minimum wage rise is unclear, but he said the call for a $15-per-hour minimum wage is "worth evaluating."
District of Columbia:
The D.C. Council has given preliminary approval to an increase in the District of Columbia's minimum wage to $11.50 an hour, one of the nation's highest. The 13-member council voted unanimously Tuesday to advance the bill. It will have to clear one more vote before going to Mayor Vincent Gray's desk.
The Democratic mayor supports raising the minimum wage from its current $8.25 to $10 an hour, but not higher. However, he said Tuesday he wants to continue working with the council to find consensus on the appropriate wage increase.
Maryland:
Last month, suburban Montgomery and Prince George's counties also approved raising their minimum wages to $11.50. It follows a national trend in which localities and states are addressing the minimum wage in the wake of federal inaction.
SeaTac, Washington
The ballot measure to create a $15 minimum wage for airport-related workers in SeaTac has survived a recount.
The original count, certified Nov. 26, had Proposition 1 ahead by 77 votes out of 6,003.
The initiative raises the city’s hourly-wage floor for hospitality and transportation workers to $15 from the statewide standard of $9.32 on Jan. 1 and assures annual inflation adjustments.
Seattle, Washington:
((New City Councilor and Socialist/Occupier)) Sawant said she plans to introduce a minimum-wage ordinance to the council as her first order of business in January... "I look forward to working with the City Council and the mayor to pass a $15-an-hour minimum-wage ordinance," Sawant said. "However, if corporate resistance results in the ordinance getting watered down or not passing in 2014, then we will need to place an initiative on the 2014 ballot."
New Jersey:
New Jersey's minimum wage will increase to $8.25 per hour on Jan. 1, from the federal level of $7.25 per hour. The measure was approved by 60 percent of New Jersey voters on Election Day, and it ties future increases to inflation, making New Jersey the 11th state to do so.
Delaware.
It looks like new life has been breathed into a stalled Delaware minimum wage bill.
Currently minimum wage in Delaware mirrors the federal level of $7.25/hour. Senate Bill 6 would increase the state's minimum wage to $8.25/hour.
Passed by the state Senate in March, the measure was tabled in the state House Economic Development Committee. Claymont Rep. Bryon Short chairs the committee; he voted against the legislation twice fearing an increase would shutter businesses. However now the small business owner is singing a different tune.
"I believe now is the right time to support and pass a minimum wage increase for Delaware workers," Short said in a statement posted by the Democratic caucus.
Polls show massive support for minimum wage increases. For example in Colorado:
Colorado: 56-33 support to raise minimum wage to $10.
The results are almost astonishing in a national Gallup poll from early November:
Suppose that on Election Day you could vote on key issues as well as candidates. Would you vote for or against a law that would raise the federal minimum wage to nine dollars an hour with automatic increases tied to the inflation rate?
For: 69%
Against: 28%
What about $10.10? $12.50? $15?
Americans strongly favor boosting the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour but oppose raising it above that, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds. In the survey, 63% supported a rise to $10.10 from the current $7.25 rate.
n the poll, 43% said they backed an increase to $12.50 an hour. Only 28% backed a $15 wage - the rate sought by union-linked demonstrators at fast-food restaurants across the country.
$15/hr may be a bridge too far in most places, but clearly $11.00 or $12.00 is not and could be passed by referendum or by politicians who are not bound hands and feet to businesses for their re-election coffers (i.e., the very few...). The issue could clearly be a major one in every contested race in the House and in a large number of State Houses. Are Democrats smart enough, and willing to buck the one percent enough, to go for it?