The reverse-gerrymander of Texas.
This Texas map has some vague overlaps with the current one geographically, but a big difference: there are 19 seats Obama won in 2008.
Obama districts in bold.
1- Beaumont-Nogadoches. Open east Texas district.
2- Northern suburbs of Houston. Poe and Culberson could both run here or in the neighboring 7th.
3- Plano and northern suburbs of Dallas. Sam Johnson lives here.
4- Northeast Texas, like current 4th. Open.
5- Central, similar to current 5th. Gohmert lives here but the area is mostly represented by Hensarling.
6- Arlington-Irving. Joe Barton couldn't win here. Plurality-white but barely. Marc Veasey (D) represents a lot of this district. New Obama district.
7- Central, between Houston and Austin. A lot of McCaul's current district, but Culberson could run here. Bill Flores lives here as well.
8- Huntsville towards Houston's northern suburbs. Like today's 8th, and Kevin Brady lives here.
9- Houston. Latino plurality.
10- Austin. Latino plurality. New Obama district.
11- Abilene-Odessa. Essentially Conaway's current district.
12- Southern suburbs of Dallas. Barton lives here, as do Ralph Hall and Roger Williams.
13- Wichita Falls to the northern Panhandle. A lot like current 13th, and fine for Mac Thornberry.
14- Victoria and the Gulf Coast. No incumbent, though Farenthold, Weber and Olson could all try here.
15- McAllen. Almost entirely Latino.
16- El Paso. Majority Latino.
17- Waco. Open.
18- Houston. Majority Latino.
19- Lubbock. Neugebauer lives here.
20- San Antonio. Majority Latino.
21- Denton. No relation to current 21st. Burgess and Marchant both live here.
22- Sugar Land-Galveston. Plurality-white, narrowly Democratic, middle finger to Tom Delay. Weber and Olson both live here but it'd be a tough lift for them. New Obama district.
23- El Paso to San Antonio. Like the current one, but about 5 points more Democratic.
24- Fort Worth. A plurality-white swing district. New Obama district.
25- Austin. The only majority-white Obama district in the state. Designed for Lloyd Doggett (D). New Obama district.
26- Fort Worth and northern suburbs. Granger could run here.
27-Corpus Christi-Brownsville. Majority Latino. Both Rep. Farenthold (R) and Vela (D) live here, but at 55% Obama and 75% Latino, it's Vela's district. New Obama district.
28- Laredo. Majority Latino.
29- Houston. Majority Latino.
30- Dallas. Plurality African-American.
31- San Antonio suburbs-Kerrville. The central part of the state, and home to Lamar Smith.
32- Dallas. Plurality Latino. This is the district that destroys Pete Sessions' political career.New Obama district.
33- Dallas. Plurality Latino.
34- Houston. Razor-thin white plurality.
35- San Antonio-San Marcos. Majority Latino. Doggett represents most of this area but the 25th is a better fit for him.
36- Liberty and eastern Houston suburbs. Stockman lives here. Poe could run here.
The 6th, 22nd and 24th are marginal and would be very volatile. The 23rd, 32nd, 33rd and 35th are likely Dem. The rest of the Obama districts are safe.
The Republican districts are really, really Republican - not one of them breaks 41 and 7 of them are under 30% Obama-voting.
- This map would really build Latino political power and create a bench of strong potential statewide Democratic candidates.
- It would reward Democratic investment in Texas, giving a lot of voters now stuck in GOP districts a reason to turn out.
- And it would throw a wrench into both Republican control of the House and Republican primaries around the state. It hits Sessions, Hensarling, and Barton particularly hard and scrambles many other Republicans' geographical bases.
The Numbers:
The Maps:
The battle for control of the delegation really takes place in the DFW area - the 6th, 24th, 32nd and 33rd.
This is the Dallas area: the 24th in purple, the 6th in teal, the 30th in sea-foam green, the 32nd in orange, the 33rd in light blue, the 3rd in magenta, the 26th in gray, and the 21st in brick red.
Houston area. Republicans would hold the green 2nd and the orange 36th easily; the pale orange 14th is swing; the other 4 districts in Houston proper are safely Dem.
Austin. Compacted into 2 Democratic seats, the 10th and 25th.
San Antonio. One Democratic district, the blue 20th, is contained almost entirely within San Antonio; other portions of the city are in the Dem-leaning 23rd and 35th.
The Gulf Coast and the border. McAllen is its own district (the orange 15th). The border is taken up by the Latino-majority 23rd (dark orange), 27th (light green) and 28th (pink).
in closing, my map:
actual map for comparison here.