Welcome to Part 2 of The Path to a Supermajority. Again, my goal here is to examine how the Democratic Party can build a lasting supermajority in the United States Senate over the next three election cycles. You can read Part 1 (AL-ID) here:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
This is intended to be an optimistic diary series, so I will be trying to look at each Senate seat with a real eye towards winning it. I also want to note that when it comes to 2014 races, I will be going into less detail, as I think there is already a plethora of analysis on those races out there (most of them are also at the point where the pieces have been set up, so there's not as much room for speculation).
Illinois
1 Democrat, 1 Republican. Democratic Senator Dick Durbin, who is up this year, is safe. Republican Senator Mark Kirk, elected in the 2010 wave, is much less so.
Democrats tend to take for granted that Kirk will be defeated in 2016 (if he runs again, which he may not). He is definitely the most vulnerable Republican Senator in any of the next three cycles, and it would take a disaster to not pick up his seat. I think freshman Representative Tammy Duckworth would make the best candidate, and Senator, here.
Indiana
1 Democrat, 1 Republican. Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly was elected in 2012 due to the Republicans having a bad nominee, and keeping the seat in 2018 will be tough, considering the state is red and isn't really trending one way or the other. This is a state where a moderate Democrat can still win, so Donnelly's challenge will be crafting a moderate record in what will hopefully be a leftward-trending Democratic majority.
I go back and forth about whether Republican Senator Dan Coats will be vulnerable in 2016. There are a few Democratic Mayors and state legislators in Indiana who could run a real race, but no one with the the star power that would guarantee a legitimate challenge against a Republican incumbent in a red state. Former Senator and Governor Evan Bayh would be by far the best candidate, so lets hope he decides to make a comeback.
Iowa
1 Democrat, 1 Republican. Democratic Senator Tom Harkin is retiring, and it looks like Democratic Representative Bruce Braley is on his way to succeeding him this year. This election is generally considered safe, but could become competitive. If we lose here, it will probably be a bad night.
Republican Senator Chuck Grassley is safe if he runs again in 2016, but he will be 83 years old and may retire. If he does, the Democrats don't have a particularly inspiring bench, but Representative Dave Loebsack should be able to get the job done. A few other names I'm unaware of are probably floating around out there, and unless someone like Tom Latham decides to run, this should be a great pickup opportunity. For the record, I think Grassley will retire.
Former Governor and current Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack would be a great candidate here, but I'm skeptical that he wants to run.
Kansas
2 Republicans. This is a safe Republican state, and I really can't see us winning in 2014 or 2016 no matter who we nominate.
Kentucky
2 Republicans. This is an interesting state, in that it's a deep red state where there is actually some hope of picking up both seats; of course, the odds of that are very slim.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is up in 2014 against SoS Alison Lundergan Grimes. This race has been analyzed to death, so I won't bore you with the details here; suffice to say that McConnell is only a slight favorite, so we have a serious shot at picking this one up.
The 2016 race is interesting as well. Freshman Senator Rand Paul ran strong here in 2010, beating a capable nominee by a big margin (albeit in the 2010 Republican landslide). Paul is going to run for President, and its questionable whether or not he will run for reelection. I assume it depends on if he wins, or how quickly he loses in the primaries. Either way, this race could be competitive, as Paul's approval ratings aren't too great.
The best Democratic nominees would be Governor Steve Beshear (who is very popular, but probably doesn't want to run) and AG Jack Conway (who Paul defeated in 2010, but who remains a young, popular figure in the state). I think Conway would have a shot despite his loss. Of course, in both of these races, the nominees are not exactly a progressive's idea of a great political figure; remember, however, that we're talking about two potential pickups in a deep red state, one of which would take out the Obstructionist in Chief Mitch McConnell. A loooooong shot, but one worth watching.
Louisiana
1 Democrat, 1 Republican. Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu is up this year, and is very vulnerable. Louisiana's quirky primary system means this one probably won't be resolved until December, and if things go poorly for Democrats this year, it could be the determining race for the Senate majority. If Landrieu holds on, we've almost certainly maintained a majority.
Republican Senator David Vitter, who won in 2010 despite a prostitution scandal, looks like he's running for Governor in 2015, which will open up this seat. He would be the favorite in that election and appoint his successor. This probably isn't a pickup opportunity, as there are no Democrats I know of able to take on this state's massive Republican tilt.
Note: From this point forward in the diary, we are mostly dealing with safe seats, so the analysis may read a bit light.
Maine
1 Independent (Democratic caucus), 1 Republican. Maine's moderate Republican Senator Susan Collins will likely cruise to victory this year. While our nominee, ACLU Director Shenna Bellows, has received some hype, Collins is incredibly popular, and won't lose, despite the state being generally safe for Democrats.
Independent Senator Angus King won in 2012 with the silent backing of the Democratic establishment. I'm going to consider him a Democrat for the purposes of this article, because it's not like he's the most conservative member of the caucus. If King runs again in 2018, he will probably win; if he retires, we will probably keep the seat anyway.
Maryland
2 Democrats. Maryland is a deep blue state, and we should be able to hold these seats for decades to come.
Massachusetts
2 Democrats. Republican Scott Brown turned the Senate on its head with his surprise victory in 2010, but Massachusetts has since returned smoothly to the Democratic fold. This is our Alabama, and we should hold these seats for a long time.
Michigan
2 Democrats. Michigan is a blue-leaning swing state, and we should be able to hold these Senate seats. One is open in 2014, and while we have a solid nominee in Representative Gary Peters, SoS Terri Lynn Land has a shot here. This is another one of those "maybe competitive" races.
Debbie Stabenow won handily in 2012, and I'm assuming she will run again in 2018. Unless she takes a major popularity hit, I'm sure she'll win again.
Minnesota
2 Democrats. Senator Al Franken was very narrowly elected in 2008, but he should be in better shape this year. Still, this race could be a surprise Republican pickup if a strong nominee combines with a bad environment for Democrats.
Amy Klobuchar, fresh off a huge 2012 win, should be in great shape for 2018. She may run for President in 2016, but it seems unlikely that she'd win at this point, so we should assume she'll be running for reelection.
Mississippi
2 Republicans. Thad Cochran has a Tea Party challenge in 2014, and either Republican should be able to cruise to victory here. Attorney General Jim Hood would make this a real race, but he seems unlikely to run.
Roger Wicker will be up again in 2018, and the same rules apply.
In Review
After looking at these 12 states, here's where we're at: 13 of the seats are held by Democrats, and 11 by Republicans. This year, one Democratic seat is definitely vulnerable, while three may be vulnerable. One Republican seat is definitely vulnerable.
In 2016, none of our seats are vulnerable (we only hold one), while one Republican seat definitely is and two or three may be. In 2018, one of our seats will be vulnerable, while there is an outside chance their only seat will be if the right candidate really emerges.
So, it looks like we could have as much as a 5 seat pickup from this group of states, while potentially losing up to 5 (though more likely just one or two at most). After 2018, if we really have our act together, we have a shot at controlling all but six of these seats.