The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a well respected analysis arm of the US Congress. Their reports are generally considered gospel. But for some reason they used a bit of trickery to scare readers on their analysis of the military retirement projects for the next 10-years.
Congressional Budget Office
The
CBO told its audience on April 17, 2013:
Spending for military retirement pay and survivors’ annuities will rise by more than 30 percent over the next decade, CBO projects. About two-thirds of that growth will occur because those benefits are adjusted annually for inflation. The remaining growth will stem from increases in the initial benefit for new retirees; that benefit depends on service members’ basic pay during their active service, which typically grows faster than inflation. In contrast, CBO projects that the number of military retirees and their survivors will remain essentially unchanged in the coming decade, so the number of people collecting benefits will not contribute to the growth of spending. (Annual spending amounts shown here have been adjusted to account for shifts in the timing of payments.)
However, when you look at the graph they provided it shows the Military Retirement Trust Fund growing 1.4% each year. Keep in mind the Trust Fund is funded by each of the Services equally. They fund only what the projected targets based on inflation and the number of people in retirement. They estimate that there is roughly
2.3 million retirees drawing on this fund.
For an unknown reason the CBO threw in a scary 30% number in the first sentence of the discussion without any other context except people get promoted.
It would have been more accurate to inform the audience the real numbers of the Trust Fund and it was growing at approximately 1.4% per year, based on the Cost of Living Adjustment and the number of recipients.