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Portraits of Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Mike McIntyre
Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) & Rep. Mike McIntyre (D)
According to Politico, two House Democrats from two very different districts are announcing their retirements: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (NY-04) and Rep. Mike McIntyre (NC-07). Republicans targeted McIntyre in redistricting two years ago, turning a 52-47 John McCain district into one that McCain carried by a whopping 58-42 spread. But thanks to his conservative profile and exceptional political skills, McIntyre managed to hang on by just 654 votes in what was the closest House race of 2012, even as Mitt Romney matched McCain's performance with a 59-40 win of his own in the 7th.

McIntyre was preparing for a rematch with the guy who'd nearly defeated him, state Sen. David Rouzer, though recently, another Republican, New Hanover County Commissioner Woody White, had also started expressing interest in a bid. Regardless of his opponent, McIntyre would have faced an incredibly difficult re-election effort, especially since Democratic turnout typically drops in midterm years.

McIntyre's fundraising in the most recent quarter was a bit soft, and there's a good chance he was staring at polls that showed he couldn't pull off another death-defying win. And given the district's demographics, this seat—the third-reddest held by a Democrat—is almost certain to flip to Republicans this fall.

McCarthy's seat, though, is likely to stay in Democratic hands. McCarthy first won office in 1996 by beating a Republican incumbent on the strength of her gun safety advocacy: Her husband was murdered and her son badly wounded in an infamous mass shooting on the Long Island Rail Road in 1993. McCarthy had handily won re-election in recent years, though she survived a bit of a scare during the GOP wave of 2010.

Last year, though, she announced that she had lung cancer, which she described as "treatable," so her decision to call it quits is not a major surprise. And even though the 4th District actually became a bit redder after redistricting (thanks to a federal court, not vindictive political opponents), Obama still carried it by a 56-43 spread. That puts it at the outer edge of what Republicans are capable of winning, giving Democrats a strong chance to hold it.

McIntyre's retirement is ultimately the bigger deal, since his departure will make it harder for Democrats to retake the House. (If there's a silver lining for progressives, it's that there'll be one fewer ideological outlier in the Democratic caucus.) But Democrats will also probably find themselves expending resources to hold McCarthy's seat that they might not have had the incumbent chosen to seek re-election, though these kinds of retirements are part of the expected ebb and flow for both parties every cycle.

As always, we'll be following all future developments in both seats closely, so stay tuned to Daily Kos Elections.

11:41 AM PT: Both McCarthy and McIntyre have issued statements confirming their retirements.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 10:28 AM PST.

Also republished by North Carolina BLUE, New York City, and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Best of luck to (15+ / 0-)

    Rep. McCarthy and her health.

    Age 25, conservative Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler)

    by KyleinWA on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 10:31:57 AM PST

  •  Blue Dogs. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RUNDOWN, JGibson, bear83, jes2

    How much longer can this caucus survive? John Barrow is really the only core Blue Dog left. The rest of the caucus members are better fits for the New Dem caucus, but use the Blue Dog caucus for right-wing credibility.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 10:34:29 AM PST

    •  Current Caucus (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, GleninCA, bear83, jes2

      Baring any new members elected or joining, looks like the caucus will drop down to 12.

      1.John Barrow (GA-12)
      2.Sanford Bishop (GA-2)
      3.Jim Cooper (TN-5)
      4.Jim Costa (CA-20)
      5.Henry Cuellar (TX-28)
      6.Pete Gallego (TX-23)
      7.Dan Lipinski (IL-3)
      8.Jim Matheson (UT-4) Retiring
      9.Mike McIntyre (NC-7) Retiring
      10.Mike Michaud (ME-2) Running for Govenor
      11.Collin Peterson (MN-7)
      12.Loretta Sanchez (CA-47)
      13.Kurt Schrader (OR-5)
      14.David Scott (GA-13)
      15.Mike Thompson (CA-5)

    •  My guess is that it will come back (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83

      in some form or another, once we start winning seats in redder states again. That is, unless the seats are from the blue parts of those states, if/when they become blue.

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 12:19:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  They opt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    incognita

    To take the people money and run. What a retirement gig they have set up for themselves.

    •  Skyye - I don't understand your comment (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PSzymeczek, Skyye

      although you may know more about their post Congressional employment plans. As far as their government paid retirement, Congress is on the same plan as all other federal employees.

      "let's talk about that"

      by VClib on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 10:49:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I could be in error VCLib. (0+ / 0-)

        I understood A congressperson only is required to stay in office for 6 years to gain full retirement benefit status? And this was enacted by congress itself, was my understanding

        Have I misunderstood this all this time?

        I welcome the correction, thanks for calling it out, if so.

        Must leave, will check on return.

        Thanks again, VCLib

        •  Formula (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          VClib, James Allen

          My understanding is that there is a formula for pension eligibility that takes into account both age and length of service. In some cases, retiring members may be eligible for a future pension at 65(?).

        •  This looks like a good summary (0+ / 0-)

          "let's talk about that"

          by VClib on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:48:46 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thank you both (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            VClib

            I stand corrected in how I had understood, what I didnt apparently understand. I Will find what I read and figure out how I could think it was only 6 years to be eligible for the retirement eligibility. I even a few years past thought I had read something very different.

            I did read the link and appreciate you VCLib for pointing it out to me.  Thank you Davybaby for the information

            As for my embarrassing knee jerk, flying off my handle,after apparently not ready well the diary. NOT  actually taking time to read what appears to be thoroughly at all now, after returning from work and really reading.

            My very sincere apology to all here, and to both the retiring representatives. I certainly was 150% out of line, my major error, no excuse.

            I do pull for McCarthy to have been completely healed and have a long life with her family and loved ones. I would certainly expect her physician to have advised her strongly to reduce her stress and I am certain, what she has been doing is extremely stressful.

    •  Did you NOT see that McCarthy (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TLS66, trowaman

      has been treated for lung cancer?  Or maybe you just didn't read the damn article.

      •  I read it, I thought (0+ / 0-)

        I guess I am just beside myself with rage after the DC hold outs and all.

        Scratch my comments if they can be and accept my apologies to all.

        •  She has been in office far longer (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Possible Liberal, Skyye

          Than 6 years!

          She has always run hard on gun control.  

          She is a woman who has had many burdens to carry in her personal life.  I was very sorry to hear about her lung cancer.

          All the suffering of this world arises from a wrong attitude.The world is neither good or bad. It is only the relation to our ego that makes it seem the one or the other - Lama Anagorika Govinda

          by kishik on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:35:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I was totally (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kishik

            apparently, after returning and reading, out of line and perhaps out of mine. Embarrassingly, no excuse or reasoning. My apology please.

            I wish both of the a wonderful retirement and future.

            Yes she has met with more than a fair share of undue burden. I hope her own recovery is maintaining and will endure.

            Thanks you for the comment and bit of history kishik!

            •  I grew up (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skyye

              Knowing the family from which her opponent hails. Becker expected things would always come to him given his family background.  He was a high school jock and not very smart.  I have been more than happy every time she won an election.  She did not plan a life in politics, it was thrust at her.  I think she did well given how she entered into it.

              All the suffering of this world arises from a wrong attitude.The world is neither good or bad. It is only the relation to our ego that makes it seem the one or the other - Lama Anagorika Govinda

              by kishik on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 04:40:29 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Let's run the most liberal candidate ever (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83

    in McIntyre's district, support them fully, and see how they do.

    While you dream of Utopia, we're here on Earth, getting things done.

    by GoGoGoEverton on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 10:40:30 AM PST

    •  Probably about the same as a Blue Dog (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      davybaby, GleninCA

      They'll lose.  Why?  Because the Dems could run George W. Bush in makeup and the GOP would STILL call him a liberal.  

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:17:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GleninCA

        In 2010, most of the Blue Dogs ran as conservatives, and they all lost by big margins. In Virginia, Tom Periello ran as a liberal, defending Obamacare, and... he lost as well. Lose-lose situation basically.

        •  The difference is (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bear83

          in 2010 there were a total of 3 or 4 progressives who lost and one lost in a primary because her son was a corrupt bastard.  However, there were a ton of Blue Dogs who lost.

          My point was that the district was trending very red and it wouldn't matter because the Dems don't have a good shot either way and no matter who they put up the GOP will paint them as liberals.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't run a progressive candidate.  If anything we should run a progressive candidate because running a blue dog will net the same result.  A progressive will be much more likely to touch a populist nerve, excite the base and pull an upset and since it's a difficult district to win it would be a win win for the Dems.  If that progressive lost well it's not like much was expected anyway.    

          This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

          by DisNoir36 on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 01:48:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  True, run a progressive. (0+ / 0-)

            That will truly show what the Democrat support is. Running Blue dogs worked in 2006 and 2008, when Bush's approval ratings were below 40% and he was shedding support even in conservative districts.

          •  such a surprise- Blue Dogs held more (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Samara Morgan Dem

            marginal districts than progressives!

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 03:29:32 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Which districts progressives (0+ / 0-)

            usually run in, and which are "Blue Dog" districts??? Majority of progressives run in a districts, where absolutely anyone with "(D)" after their name would win - even, well,.... not very smart people (so to say) too.. Blue Dogs mostly run in districts inherently difficult for Democrats: moderate to strong Republican swing usually. So, how on Earth it's possible to compare their performance, especially - in wave years??? Of course, Blue Dog's districts are "first to go, last to come"... Does it makes them less valuable? No way, absolutely opposite! After all - i already presented Cook's numbers: there are only 163 districts with PVI D+5 or higher now. Where (and with which candidates) do you intend to get other 55? "Bold progressibes"? Don't make me laugh...

            P.S. Which must be a size of "Republican wave" to threaten security of Nancy Pelosi, Maxine Waters, Jose Serrano or Charles RAngel. They can "afford" to be a progressive, may other - doesn't

      •  McIntyre won it, he was a Blue Dog. (0+ / 0-)

        but probably nobody else could. They gerrymandered it into a pretty damn Republican district.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 12:51:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  And a lot of good that did the Dems (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bear83

          They were still in the minority and that asshole gave the GOP bipartisan cover on multiple votes.

          This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

          by DisNoir36 on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 01:49:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  he voted with us mostly (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Samara Morgan Dem, trowaman

            which is more than you can say of anyone else the district would elect.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 02:46:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Why limit it to the district? (0+ / 0-)

              You replace him with a Dem in say NJ-03 and the Dem Party will be that much better off.  We lose a 50-50 Dem in NC but gain a 85-15 Dem in NJ instead.  The GOP gets a 100-0 GOoPer in NC but loses a 100-0 GOoPer in NJ.

              It's asinine to focus on the one red district and try to find someone who will vote with us sometimes when we have several other bluer districts where we can elect far better Dems who will vote with the party more often.

              This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

              by DisNoir36 on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 04:18:22 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Because you didn't win (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Egalitare

                NJ-03 yet, and are not very likely to win it, absent a Lonegan candidacy. And because there are very few districts, like NJ-03 remain: winnable by Democrats and represented by Republicans. Much less then democrats need for majority..

          •  You will have a "luxury" (0+ / 0-)

            to compare McIntyre votes with those of his Republican successor in less then a year. May be - THEN you will begin to understand something

      •  Reminds me of what Sen. Jim Sasser did... (0+ / 0-)

        ...in 1994.  He ran ads (as a long time incumbent Democrat) on Rush Limbaugh's radio show.  And despite giving Rush mounds of cash even Rush thought it was a hilarious.  And not in a good way.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 01:21:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Well damn, (5+ / 0-)

    not even Dean Smith could keep NC-07 blue at this point.

    Best wishes to McCarthy. She's had a tough life -- but has channeled her grief into fighting the good fight.

    You won't believe what this gay dolphin said to a homeless child. First you'll be angry, but then at the 1:34 mark your nose will bleed tears of joy.

    by cardinal on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 10:40:37 AM PST

  •  Mike McIntyre's departure - Dems Retaking House (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bufffan20

    How on earth is Mike McIntyre's departure going to make it harder for Democrats to win the House of Representatives?  That's a very odd assessment.

    His seat is just ONE seat in the House as opposed to many others.

    If you want to make the argument that many other Democrats retiring after representing competitive districts, sure, that might be a bit more plausible.

    So far, I've just seen Jim Matheson decide to retire and now it's McIntyre.  That's only two seats.

    Suppose it might help to break everything down by which seats are most viable for Democrats to winning in 2014 minus retirements of Matheson & McIntyre.

    •  I think the point of the diary author (10+ / 0-)

      is that the odds of the Dems taking the House in 2014 are slim so they need all the tossups to go their way to have a chance. Every current Dem seat that is an easy 2014  flip for the GOP just makes the mountain higher, and the odds lower.

      "let's talk about that"

      by VClib on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 10:46:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right (0+ / 0-)

        However, in a non-quantitative sense, it might be argued that the energy among the Democratic base is high, even with issues like the voting rights and others on the table.  In North Carolina, obviously we've seen the activism in the Democratic base rise up significantly over the course of last year as a result of Governor McCrory's irrational actions.

        I see where the analysis is going though.  Even the Cook Report would argue that odds are harder for Democrats to win the House but they are looking at things from a data standpoint.

        Meanwhile, this is January 2014, not September 2014 so it's still reasonably early in the election cycle for a number of folks.  Dynamics could change in favor or not in favor for the Democrats.

      •  More tossups all the time (0+ / 0-)

        The retirement of McIntyre in NC-07 could be offset by the retirement of say Wolf in VA-10.  The retirement of Matheson in UT-04 will likely be offset by the death of Young in FL-13 and the likely election of Dem Sink in his place.  So in the end after 3 unexpected retirements and one death the Dems are in the exact same place they were before and we're not even mentioning the retirements of Runyan in NJ-03, Gerlach in PA-06 or Latham in IA-03.  

        I agree with pipsorcle on this.  Those seats were likely lost to the Dems anyway but now the DCCC and the Dems are free of protecting incumbents in hostile territory and can focus on more competitive districts.  It would have been nice if Dems could somehow hold these seats and be competitive in the others as well but that kind of thinking is unrealistic and counterproductive.  Cut your losses, shore up your strongholds and attack where they're weakest.  The Dems only need 17 seats to flip the House and the GOP retirements have given the Dems some juicy targets ripe for the picking in addition to the ones already targeted like Coffman in CO-06, Denham in CA-10 and Miller in CA-31.  

        The more these marginally competitive GOP held seats with incumbents become open, the better the odds are the Dems will regain the House.  Not to mention the better the Democrats as a whole will be.  Already the Dems will lose 3 Blue Dogs on the right fringe of the party.  Their replacements, even if they become members of the New Dem coalition will likely be more towards the center than these guys were.  Not to mention that the New Democratic Coalition is losing roughly 10% of it's members due to retirements and other races while the Congressional Progressive Caucus isn't losing any as of yet to retirements or other elections.    

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:41:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's not exactly offset. (0+ / 0-)

          VA-10 is a district which narrowly went for Romney last year, 51-48, so with the predicted lower D turnout Republicans are slightly favored to win. Matheson and McIntyre's districts, on the other hand, are deeply red and thus almost certain GOP pickups. The best hope for Democrats in VA-10 is that Republicans stick to their famous convention procedure and choose an unelectable candidate, like state senator Dick Black, who has compared abortion to the Holocaust. Other candidates include delegate Barbara Comstock, who has repeatedly won close, expensive races, which should make her a far better candidate. Republicans need to decide soon whether they are going for a primary or a convention, so we will know whether they will again blow a perfectly winnable race.

          •  Dems would have lost those anyway (0+ / 0-)
            so with the predicted lower D turnout Republicans are slightly favored to win.
            You're predicting that for a 50-49 Romney district.  So why wouldn't the same apply for a R+22 district or whatever Matheson's district is?  If as you say Dems will turnout in lower numbers then the very close wins by McIntyre and Matheson in 2012 will be R pickups in 2014.  If the Dems can't flip a 50-49 seat it won't matter what the fuck they do in those districts because they ain't winning jack shit.

            Given the choice between spending resources and money competing in R+22 seats or R+1 seats which makes more sense and which is a better get for Dems?  The answer is so obvious it hurts.  

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 01:42:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Dems are probably not going to win anyway (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40

      If anything, they'll be lucky even to pickup 1 or 2 seats at the moment.

      But the number of competitive seats is tiny, so every seat counts, especially if its an extremely red district like NC-07 or UT-04. With these retirements, Democrats will need to win in at least two more Republican leaning seats (there probably aren't 17 seats that are tossup for Dems to try and win) and there's a lot of investment needed for that (multi-million dollar races and all).

      I can't see how losing Democrats in red seats could possibly make it easier for Democrats to retake the house though?

      •  Yeah good point (0+ / 0-)

        Some political analysts on the news have argued 2014 isn't a wave year for the Democrats or Republicans so it might be that every race will stand on its own.

        However, 2014 is not 2010 and judging by the now growing success of Obamacare, I would argue Democrats are likely to pick up a number of seats.  Question is at this point, how much?

    •  IMHO it turns... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jes2

      a likely loss (the most likely incumbent loss) into a certain loss.  

      But one could argue from a cost-benefit analysis it actually helps the Democrats.  Less money on defense in difficult terrain means more money spent elsewhere.  

      Thankfully, the Dems don't have too many more seats outstanding where the PVI massively disfavor them.  WV-03, GA-12, and MN-07 are pretty much it.  Only WV-03 seems really endangered in general right now, and only MN-07 is fairly likely to see a retirement.  

      •  WV-03 may seem endangered (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sulthernao

        On the other hand, Nick Casey in WV-02 is generating quite a bit of fundraising so Democrats might have a shot at winning Shelley Moore Capito's old seat.  Depends on the circumstances in the coming months.  Need to see more polling though in WV-02.

    •  What's easier? (4+ / 0-)

      Winning 18 seats or winning 19 seats? I didn't realize it was controversial to suggest that the fewer seats you need to win, the easier.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 04:52:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Simply (0+ / 0-)

      You will need to win ONE MORE seat out of relatively small available pool of winnable seats

  •  McIntyre's voting record since (9+ / 0-)

    2009 has been almost uniquely atrocious among House Democrats. If we had to drop one, he's the guy.

    Rep. McCarthy, of course, is a hero. I wish her the very best.

    "And now we know that government by organized money is just as dangerous as government by organized mob." -- FDR

    by Mogolori on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 10:43:44 AM PST

    •  I know.....You'd see those votes where 999 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mogolori, Aquarius40, incognita

      rethugs and 2 Dems would vote 'Aye'....almost guaranteed one of the dems was McIntyre.

      •  Basically on all the HCR repeal votes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        candideinnc

        It seems like it was Matheson and McIntyre were the only two "Democrats" who keep voting for a full repeal.  And now they will be gone.  I'm pretty sure even the very conservative John Barrow votes no.  Any Dem who votes for full repeal of healthcare reform that is already law with absolutely nothing to replace it isn't a Democrat to begin with IMO.

        Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

        by ChadmanFL on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:54:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I can't really get angry at them for those votes. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          David Nir

          I don't agree with them, but they have been consistent all along. More importantly, they are meaningless. Had they had some effect on the outcome, it'd be a different story.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 12:26:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  They would still get Pelosi closer to the gavel. (0+ / 0-)

          He lives in a 60% Republican district, so there was no way for him to win without taking on very conservative positions. In the end, it's better to have him because he still adds to the D caucus. It's surprising that he managed to survive this long.

          •  Not any closer, though (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bananapouch1

            to her being able to do anything with it.

            Also, 60% is a mighty optimistic estimate. I seriously have no idea why McIntyre ever chose to be a Democrat. His profile doesn't match up at all. Maybe in the '60s he would have fit in better, but now...

            •  The South took long to adjust. (0+ / 0-)

              It started voting Republican in pres. elections in 1964/1968, but down the ballot, it really took decades to adjust, depending on existing divides - racial, urban vs. rural etc. Stats like AR had that little divides that they didn't make the switch until the 2000s.

              •  There's still a ton of Dems in the south (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                psychicpanda

                Who don't vote Democratic at nearly every level of government anymore.  In my state a large swathe of the FL Panhandle is made up of counties where Dems outnumber GOP voters 4:1 or greater yet still go GOP very heavily at every level except municipal elections and to some extent county elections.  I never really understood it.  If a realignment happened and suddenly the GOP became the more progressive party my voter registration would change real fast.

                Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

                by ChadmanFL on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 03:13:04 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Last gasp of the Democratic South. (0+ / 0-)

                  First, they voted R at the presidential level. Then they elected R governors. Then, mostly after the 1994 elections, they also elected R representatives/senators. The state legislatures took longest to flip - AL only gained a GOP majority in 2010, and AR in 2012. The process varied from state to state, but ultimately it produced the same result. West Virginia is an interesting case - used to be a deeply Democratic state, supporting Carter in 1980, Dukakis in 1988, but from 2000 went red at the presidential level, voting 62% for Romney in 2012. Still, Democrats control the legislature non-stop since Reconstruction, and both Senators have been Democrats since 1959 - which is the longest Democratic single-party streak of any state. Nick Rahall is still the representative of the state's reddest district (65% Romney).

                  •  Rahall's is the bluest below the presidential (0+ / 0-)

                    level.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 06:10:16 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  N Rahall is a very good example to see (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      James Allen

                      He is just the last Democratic incumbent in the US House keeping a fight in R+double digit districts, and still he has been able to keep the less conservative voting record of all them. Even he is not a blue dog.

                      It should make us to think about the real need to have as conservative voting record being a Democrat in R+, even in R+ high.

                      •  he's still conservative on cultural issues (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        abgin

                        and the environment.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 07:25:57 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  Jim Matheson's is even redder (0+ / 0-)

                      There, Mitt Romney won 67.2% of the vote. He chose to retire to avoid a humiliating defeat and to remain undefeated.

                      •  I was talking about out of the districts in West (0+ / 0-)

                        Virginia.  But Matheson's district wasn't really that Republican, if you look at earlier elections. It went so high for Romney because it was in Utah, if you catch my meaning.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 07:24:55 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

            •  Because he's still less conservative (0+ / 0-)

              than the troglodytes in the southern Republican caucus. Plus his district still has a massive Dem party registration edge even today as does most of the state. Robeson County is like 75% D last I saw.

            •  When he was first elected... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              David Nir

              he COULD NOT have been elected as a Republican.  He couldn't have won.  His district was only leaning D but his base was in Robeson, Bladen, and Columbus Counties which were 80% D at the time.  And that was just in the mid 1990s.

    •  Ron Barber, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mogolori, politicalceci, GleninCA

      even though he has only been in the House since 2012, is certainly trying to give McIntyre a run for his monney.  He has voted with Boehner more often than any Democrat in the 113th Congress.

      A great democracy does not make it harder to vote than to buy an assault weapon. -Bill Clinton

      by PSzymeczek on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 10:56:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Let's not forget (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo

      that he was "disappointed" when the Boy Scouts changed their policy to allow gay scouts. Translation: he's an antigay bigot. In the Democratic Party. In 2013.

      Fuck this chump. Onward and upward!

    •  Much better then will be a record (0+ / 0-)

      of Republican, who will be elected in his (McIntyre) place.

  •  McIntyre my congresscritter....won't be missed. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    incognita, politicalceci
  •  If any voting American who's not a member of (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    politicalceci

    the wealthy 1% votes Republican in the mid-term, they have to be the stoopidest voters in history.  So easily duped, it's really tragic.  Rethugs in Congress demand jobs while cutting jobs with sequesters and government shut-downs.  Rethugs in Congress blame poverty on Dems while cutting funding for food stamps and unemployment insurance.  What does a voter have to drink to believe anything these lying, thieving dogs tell 'em?  Seriously.  It's simply unendurable idiocy if Rethugs keep the House in November.

    Wake up, dupes!  You're being played for total fools!

    Best. President. Ever.

    by Little Lulu on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:04:44 AM PST

  •   Mike McIntyre: Don't let the door hit ya (0+ / 0-)

    where the good lord split ya!
    A Wilmington city councilor has been thinking of opposing Mc in a primary.  But, whatever, I am just delighted to see him go.  

    If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything - unknown

    by incognita on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:22:19 AM PST

  •  What if Jason Thigpen switches races? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, James Allen, psychicpanda

    He's a veteran running in NC-03. He switched from R to D citing the voter suppression bill. He lives in New Hanover County, which is still mostly in NC-07.

    NC-07 is military-heavy, so having a veteran run there might be good.

    Old school southern conservative Democrat. NC-09 (home) LA-06 (school).

    by MilesC on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:24:37 AM PST

  •  McCarthy's district... (0+ / 0-)

    Most likely the repub to seek office will be the same as has been all these years she's been in office.  He also has a tea party following.

    Conservative and has money to run a campaign.  Father and grandfather both in public offices (judicial)

    Greg Becker.

    This District is redder than blue.

    All the suffering of this world arises from a wrong attitude.The world is neither good or bad. It is only the relation to our ego that makes it seem the one or the other - Lama Anagorika Govinda

    by kishik on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:32:19 AM PST

  •  This is why we need to go after those (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    redistricting laws that the GOP has put on the books.  If it weren't for them and other sort of toying with the rights of voters, things wouldn't look so dire.  

    It also comes down to people consistently voting against their interests just because FOX News and other nefarious, well-funded Teabagging pundits tell them so.

    How many close elections does the Dems have to give up before they see the light?  We are fighting for America's very soul here. :(

    "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." --Benjamin Franklin

    by politicalceci on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:34:07 AM PST

    •  Can't challenge district lines until 2021 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jes2, politicalceci

      You don't redistrict every time the legislature says so, so there's no point in trying. After the 2020 Census, there will be a redo. Until then, we're stuck with what we're stuck with -- except in the very few districts where even under the new rules, there may be a claim of deliberate racial line-drawing.

      •  True. But there is always a loophole. (0+ / 0-)

        If Texas can clear Delay, there is always something that could be found to challenge the gerrymandering of the GOP is someone looks hard enough without waiting for 2021.

         After all, the Dems have to stop sitting on their hands and letting the GOP exploit every little thing to take power out of the DNC's hands.  I know that what you speak is common sense, but I would certainly hope that at least there is another option out there rather than waiting another seven years. :(

        "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." --Benjamin Franklin

        by politicalceci on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 10:27:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sorry about tiredness brain rot. (0+ / 0-)

          I should have just gone to sleep instead of late night replying.

          I re-read what I said and decided to make what I meant in the previous statement a bit clearer: that there must be other options than waiting.

          Delay being cleared is a travesty, but in that case a loophole was exploited.  

          Where's a little luck to help the people and not the one percent as well as their teabagger toadies?  

          That's all I wanted to say. :(

          "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." --Benjamin Franklin

          by politicalceci on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 10:39:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  2 reasons (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            politicalceci

            1) GOP controls the New York State Senate
            2) Cuomo wouldn't sign it.

            -A Texan and former constituent of Tom DeLay.

            SSP alumni, 29, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

            by trowaman on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 12:14:10 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Fair enough. Pretty sad, but direct. (0+ / 0-)

              The answers you and rugby mom gave pretty much solidified what I was thinking in the back of my mind in regards of how much work needs to be done in terms of the 2014 Election.

              Thanks for the frank answers.

              "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." --Benjamin Franklin

              by politicalceci on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 07:34:51 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  If Carolyn McCarthy married Sean Patrick Maloney (0+ / 0-)

    ehe'd be Carolyn Maloney, creating even more confusion about the NY delegation.

    There's no such thing as a free market!

    by Albanius on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 11:47:06 AM PST

  •  McIntyre (0+ / 0-)

    Good riddance!  He might as well have been a Republican.  

  •  Sorry if this is a dumb question, (0+ / 0-)

    but what happens to McCarthy's money? I assume she can't simply donate it to whomever wins the nod for our side, or can she? And if not, how can she use it to help our side, it at all? She's still sitting on about $700,000.

    You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

    by bjssp on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 12:17:27 PM PST

  •  This country is becoming more polarized (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    politicalceci, psychicpanda

    ...there's not a real moderate wing left in the GOP, and we're getting to the point that people like Ron Kind are among the most conservative Democrats in Congress.

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 08, 2014 at 12:30:34 PM PST

  •  Best of Luck (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    Wishing Rep. McCarthy well. It IS interesting to note that someone VERY prominent and VERY appealing lives in that district. Her mother-in-law is running for Congress in PA, her father was somewhat notable, and her mother is the leading non-candidate in the 2016 presidential race. Hmmm...

  •  NC is insanely gerrymandered. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jes2

    The state voted 50-48 Romney last year, but 10 of 13 congressional districts have a large Republican advantage. NC is also one of the states where the governor has no veto power over district maps, which is why Perdue could not stop these maps from going through.

  •  After McIntyre retirement (0+ / 0-)

    (his district will just assuredly go Republican as Matheson's) Democrats need to win about 20 present Republican district for majority. Almost impossible task in absence of rather big wave.

    P.S. I have a "modest proposal", which can save a lot of money for country:

    (begin snark) Cancel ALL general election for House at least in "reliable" districts - say, from D+5 above and from R+5 above, and leave them only for swing districts (D+4 to R+4). Automatically assign all other seats (163 - to Democrats, and 194 - to Republicans according latest Cook PVI numbers) to corresponding parties. A LOT of money would be saved... (end snark)

    More "radical" proposal (who knows - may be it's time will come someday too) would be simply to split country in 2 according to above mentioned PVI (with moderate areas conducting referendum - which one to join). After all - no one really listens or cares about "other side arguments" anymore: in present polarized country most votes are determined simply by numbers: "i am a boss (have majority) - you are a fool (can't do anything), you are a boss - i am a fool"

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