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9:23 AM PT: CA-25: In an unsurprising move that breaks up a string of five straight Democratic retirements, Republican Rep. Buck McKeon finally announced on Thursday that he won't seek re-election this fall. McKeon had repeatedly pushed back against retirement rumors all cycle, even doing so earlier this week. But many factors augured for McKeon's departure, including his age (75), his tenure (22 years), and the fact that he'd have had to relinquish his chairmanship of the Armed Services Committee had he won another term—something he called his "biggest motivator" for leaving.

McKeon also experienced the closest election of his long career last cycle, hanging on by a 55-45 margin against an underfunded opponent, podiatrist Lee Rogers. A big reason for the relative closeness of the race is the fact that this area has trended hard toward Democrats in recent years. In 2004, in a mostly similar district, George W. Bush prevailed by 19 points. In 2012, Mitt Romney won by just 2. McKeon simply hadn't adjusted.

Rogers was seeking a rematch and had actually outraised McKeon in the third quarter of last year, portending a legitimate challenge for a rusty incumbent. With McKeon gone, though, Democratic chances for a pickup will improve. Two Republicans had already declared they'd seek McKeon's seat if it opened up: former state Sen. Tony Strickland and current state Sen. Steve Knight. Both are quite conservative, but Strickland is the establishment pick (and McKeon's preferred successor) while movement conservatives are embracing Knight. Democrats can only hope they bash each other to death, as they seem wont to do.

The party may also try to find a candidate stronger than Rogers, though the bench here is not deep. A big difficulty for Democrats here will be countering midterm falloff, so for now, we're maintaining our rating of Likely Republican. But given the vagaries of open seat races, our outlook could very well change.

9:57 AM PT: VA-Sen: As expected, former RNC chief Ed Gillespie, who ran the organization during George W. Bush's re-election campaign, has made his bid against Democratic Sen. Mark Warner official.

10:44 AM PT: IA-Gov: Finally. Republican Terry Branstad, the longest-serving governor in American history, has, at long last, officially kicked off his bid for a sixth term. For typically inscrutable reasons, Branstad had refused to confirm his intentions until now, even though he'd taken made steps toward another run, including raising plenty of money. (He has $4 million in the bank.) The only notable Democrat running is state Sen. Jack Hatch, who faces a very uphill challenge. (Another state senator, Janet Petersen, recently declined.) Daily Kos Elections currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

11:11 AM PT: NY-04: Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice, who is the most prominent elected Democrat looking at a possible bid to succeed retiring Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, visited Washington, D.C. this week. Her office wouldn't comment on the trip except to say that there were "no taxpayer funds involved," which means it was likely made for political rather than official purposes.

1:41 PM PT: FL-13: A new survey from St. Pete Polls, on behalf of the ethically troubled website St. Petersblog, finds Republican lobbyist David Jolly leading his Democratic opponent, former state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, by a 47-43 margin, with Libertarian Lucas Overby at 4. That's a big change from the 49-36 advantage they found for Sink in early December, but there are many, many reasons to be skeptical.

For one, this was a one-day robopoll taken the day after Jolly won the GOP primary, so a "primary bounce" is very possible, and polling for just a single day is a crummy practice. But that's almost giving St. Pete too much credit.

The poll's sample is 47 percent Republican, 35 percent Democratic, and 17 percent independent, yet according to voter registration statistics, the 13th District is 37 percent Republican, 35 percent Democratic, and 24 percent independent. Sure, a special election electorate is likely to be redder than the registration figures, but 10 points redder?

More broadly, St. Pete had an awful, awful track record in 2012. They polled a ton of House races and blew them, badly:

FL-02: St. Pete: Southerland (R) 47-47; actual: Southerland (R) 53-47; error: +6 D

FL-09: St. Pete: Grayson (D) 45-40; actual: Grayson (D) 63-37; error: +21 R

FL-10: St. Pete: Webster (R) 50-42; actual: Webster (R) 52-48; error: +4 R

FL-13: St. Pete: Young (R) 54-37; actual: Young (R) 58-42; error: +1 R

FL-16: St. Pete: Buchanan (R) 55-38; actual: Buchanan (R) 54-46; error: +9 R

FL-18: St. Pete: West (R) 51-42; actual: Murphy (D) 50.3-49.7; error: +9.6 R

FL-22: St. Pete: Frankel (D) 48-45; actual: Frankel (D) 55-45; error: +7 R

FL-26: St. Pete: Rivera (R) 46-43; actual: Garcia (D) 54-43; error: +14 R

Not only did St. Pete miss the mark widely in almost every race, but they missed consistently in the Republican direction. (Check out the comical results in the 26th and especially the 9th.) Even more shamefully, in their own self-graded scorecard after the election, St. Pete ignored all of these misses. Instead, they focused on a few strange last-minute polls they conducted only of early voters. By luck, those happened to suck somewhat less, but seriously, you can't survey just a portion of the electorate. WTF?

So you can trust St. Pete Polls if you want. But this is a firm that uses a questionable methodology, winds up with excessively Republican samples, and consistently leans to the right, yielding very poor results. You could almost call St. Pete the Rasmussen of Florida—and would you trust Rasmussen with anything? Let's wait until we have some more reliable polling data that's actually worth something.

2:52 PM PT: VRA: In a rare display of comity, Democrats and Republicans jointly introduced new legislation on Thursday to repair the Voting Rights Act, whose signature enforcement mechanism was gutted by the Supreme Court last year. While far from perfect, the bill would restore a good deal of power to the VRA; rather than summarize its key provisions myself, I would strongly encourage you to read Ari Berman's excellent piece explaining what the new law would do. Despite the bill's bipartisan provenance (and the concessions Democrats made to ensure it would be acceptable to at least some Republicans), it's not clear whether it will ever come up for a vote, but it's a start.

3:09 PM PT: CA-Gov: Welp, there goes Abel Maldonado. The former lieutenant governor finally realized that no Republican was going to beat Gov. Jerry Brown this year, so he pulled the plug on his campaign on Thursday. Or perhaps he was just terrified of Tim Donnelly's huge balls.

3:17 PM PT: IA-03: State Sen. Matt McCoy, one of the few additional Democrats whose name had surfaced since Rep. Tom Latham's surprise retirement, says that he won't run for Congress and will instead seek re-election to his current post. That makes it more likely that former state Sen. Staci Appel will cruise to the nomination, though ex-Gov. Chet Culver is now saying that he, too, is interested. However, Culver also floated a possible gubernatorial comeback bid last year but then kinda just disappeared, so who knows if he'll ever follow through.

3:33 PM PT: NY-21: Whatever happens in New York's 21st, Doug Hoffman won't be around to screw things up. Hoffman, you'll recall, was the Conservative Party candidate in 2009 who eventually forced Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava out of the race, leading to a split that elected Bill Owens (who's now retiring). Hoffman ran on the Conservative line again in 2010, saving Owens' ass in an impossible year by siphoning off just enough votes from Matt Doheny, who'd beaten Hoffman in the GOP primary. Hoffman isn't getting back into the action, though; instead, he's endorsing former George W. Bush aide Elise Stefanik. The NRCC is looking around for better options, though, so maybe Hoffman's support could still cause some trouble.

And we could still wind up seeing some of these players return for a second (or third) act. The Watertown Daily Times notes that neither Scozzafava—who became a Democrat not long after that ill-fated election—nor Doheny has spoken publicly about running again. However, Democrat Jonathan Cardinal, an aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, says he's looking at a bid. (Also, here's an amusingly awkward detail: Ex-Rep. Scott Murphy is a brother-in-law of Warren County District Attorney Kate Hogan, both of whom are considering the race.)

3:37 PM PT: PA-06: Phil LaRue, the communications director for the New Democrat Coalition, had been looking at a bid for Pennsylvania's open 6th District, but now he's decided not to run.

3:49 PM PT: Jolly can take comfort in this poll if he'd like, but there's at least one Republican not ready to support him: state Rep. Kathleen Peters, his chief primary rival. Peters isn't endorsing Jolly and she says his presence on the ticket has "weakened" Republican chances of holding the seat. Despite claiming she had "nothing but good things to say" about Jolly, Peters said she's concerned whether voters will be able to "trust" a "lobbyist who represents special interests." That last line almost exactly parrots the chief Democratic attack on Jolly, which is something you never want to see members of your own party doing.

Jolly is getting some quick help from the NRCC, though, which already filed a report for a $94,000 independent expenditure on "media." Abby Livingston says the money is at least partly for a web ad that attacks Sink for allegedly spending taxpayer money on herself.

4:06 PM PT: Blue Dogs: The moribund Blue Dog Coalition—down to just 15 members from its 2010 peak of 54—has somehow managed to add four new recruits: Reps. Ron Barber (AZ-02), Cheri Bustos (IL-17), Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09), and Nick Rahall (WV-03). Sinema's name merits a chuckle: She was a spokesperson for Ralph Nader in 2000 and once described herself as a "Prada socialist." Her opportunism is nothing new, though, and like the other members on this list, she probably thinks that the Blue Dogs offer a cloak of conservatism that will help her win re-election.

Rahall, if anything, is a bit more of a surprise. He'd long resisted joining but now he faces what will probably be his most difficult campaign to date. Rahall's move is a bit reminiscent of ex-Rep. Larry Kissell's last cycle; Kissell had also spurned the Blue Dogs for his entire congressional tenure until his career was on the line. Kissell lost anyway, thanks mostly to redistricting but also to ineptitude.

4:10 PM PT: LA-Sen: Republican state Rep. Paul Hollis is airing his first ads, one of which is a platitude-filled introductory spot (with a few jabs at Obamacare), set to soaring music that winds up sounding corny. There's no word on how much he's spending.

4:29 PM PT: AZ-01, AZ-02: The House Majority PAC is running two new ads in Arizona, aimed at pushing back against Americans for Prosperity's Obamacare assault. In the 1st, they're airing a positive spot on behalf of Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, claiming she "blew the whistle on the disastrous healthcare website" and "worked to fix it." I don't know that this was exactly a whistle-blower type of situation ....

Anyhow, HMP's ad for Rep. Ron Barber in the 2nd goes in a very different direction. It lambastes the Koch brothers (not by name, though a picture of them does appear on screen) as "out-of-state billionaires" who want to "eliminate[] the minimum wage" and "privatize[] Social Security"—hence, the narrator says, their support for kindred spirit Martha McSally, the likely Republican nominee. HMP says the combined buy for both ads is $200,000.

5:19 PM PT: 4Q Fundraising:

KY-Sen: Matt Bevin (R): $900,000 raised (does not include self-funding)

NH-Sen: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): $1.1 million raised, $3.4 million cash-on-hand

CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D-inc): $421,000 raised, $1.05 million cash-on-hand; Tom Tancredo (R): $192,000 raised, $109,000 cash-on-hand; Scott Gessler (R): $124,000 raised, $114,000 cash-on-hand; Greg Brophy (R): $52,000 raised, $46,000 cash-on-hand

5:34 PM PT:IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc): $1.88 million raised, $4.5 million cash-on-hand; Bruce Rutherford (R): $4.1 million raised (includes self-funding), $396,000 cash-on-hand (check out that burn rate!); Dan Rutherford (R): $393,000 raised, $1.4 million cash-on-hand; Kirk Dillard (R): $329,000 raised, $145,000 cash-on-hand; Bill Brady (R): $74,000 raised, $271,000 cash-on-hand

MD-Gov: Anthony Brown (D): $5.4 million raised (in 2013), $7.1 million cash-on-hand; Doug Gansler (D): $1.7 million raised (in 2013), $6.3 million cash-on-hand; Heather Mizeur (D): $1.1 million raised (in 2013), $750,000 cash-on-hand

NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D-inc): $7 million raised (in second half of 2013), $33 million cash-on-hand

5:36 PM PT:AR-02: French Hill (R): $568,000 raised, $534,000 cash-on-hand

KY-06: Elizabeth Jensen (D): $100,000 raised, $245,000 cash-on-hand

NY-23: Martha Robertson (D): $265,000 raised, $500,000 cash-on-hand

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 06:00:14 AM PST

  •  Thanks! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, sapelcovits

    Great list of NoVA Democratic officeholders not considering a run for VA-08!

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 06:21:05 AM PST

  •  Can any post that list (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nimh

    That shows the fundraising totals of each incumbent and challengers in every congressional district.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 06:29:27 AM PST

  •  MN-LG (12+ / 0-)

    Looks like Dayton has made a decision. He let the "gender balance" term slip, but I expect that he will pick a female now. I expect the announcement to be Monday or Tuesday.

    http://www.twincities.com/...

    The 3 that allegedly received interviews:

    Tina Smith) Dayton's Chief of Staff. Formerly Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak's Chief of Staff, and Rybak's campaign manager in his 2010 gubernatorial bid.
    Pluses: Gender balance on the ticket (every LG since 1983 has been female), impeccable political knowledge, knows everyone in Dayton's inner circle so there is no acclimation period.
    Minuses: She is from Minneapolis. This hardens the meme that Dayton doesn't care at all for any of Minnesota outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul proper. She is also BFFs with Dayton's ex-wife, so her presence would lead into digging up a messy divorce between two very wealthy people, as Dayton's ex is a Rockefeller.

    Katie Sieben) State senator from reddish purple southern Washington County. She is a Harvard graduate, and the scion of one of the only political dynasties in the state. Her father was a state legislator back in the 70s, and her uncle was a former Speaker of the Minnesota House, and retired 2-star general in the Minnesota National Guard. The family is also famous for its successful personal injury law fir, which bares the family name. Of he three, she is by far the most likely to advance up the state politician food chain.
    Pluses: Geographic base in a purple suburb where Dayton has traditionally struggled in his 3 statewide victories. Strong family name. Good political resume (8 years a senator and 4 years a representative). Seasoned politician in spite if being only 36.
    Minuses: She may overshadow Dayton. She is photogenic and charismatic, both are things that Dayton lacks. And while her family has been successful in business and military, she has really done neither. She got her MPA and entered the politician realm immediately. And bring from suburban Washington County may help there, but expect Dayton's margins to drop in outstate, where he needs to win.

     Tony Sertich) IRRRB Chairman (cabinet position), Duluth Port Authority Commissioner, former State House Majority Leader, and former legislative staffer.
     Pluses: Geography, geography, geography. He comes with a built in base of loyal 70-30 rural DFL voters that really don't like Dayton, but would turn out for a Favorite Son. His political resume is ridiculous for a 38 year old man. And as a member if Dayton's cabinet, he would not have to give up his position to be LG, and would be likely to keep his Chisholm home and office, much like Prettner-Solon did in Duluth.
    Minuses: He may not want to job. He has a young family at home, and doesn't spend much time in St. Paul, and may not want to leave for 6 months of campaigning around the state. He also doesn't bring the gender balance to the ticket that Saytin said is important, but stopped short of an absolution.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:36:30 AM PST

    •  Would the press (0+ / 0-)

      really go digging into a fairly old divorce for the reasons you specify? Also, I seem to remember the divorce not being known as bad, although that may just be me confusing the fact Alida Messinger has been involved more and more with liberal causes with the fact that she gets along with Dayton.

      Also still, is Dayton actively hated in the rural areas, more than other DFL politicians, or is it just a regional thing?

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:45:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He and Franken are way weaker than the others (0+ / 0-)

        As those two pretty much embody the "smarmy Minneapolis liberal" meme.

        For instance, Marty Seifert already fired a shot across his bow on this front following YPS's refusal to run again. Something like "I love the Lt. Governor, and her leaving is further evidence of Dayton's war on outstate Minnesota."

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:07:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  And then Seifert (0+ / 0-)

          made a remark about rural Dems being "dogs who like to be whipped", or something to that effect.

          Of course, it looks more likely that someone from the suburbs (Jeff Johnson?) will get the GOP nod anyways.  And suburban GOPers aren't exactly popular in Greater Minnesota either.

          Any ideas on whether the Independence Party will get a big name gadfly this year or not?

          MN-01, long time lurker

          by Jervill on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:31:12 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  and yet they're still doing fine in polling (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp

          Cook has Franken at Likely D. If they don't do great outstate it'll be too bad, but its not like the state as a whole hates them.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:53:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh, they will both likely win (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            nimh

            The state's economy is humming, and neither has gone out of their way to piss people off. The turnout and margins in outstate matter though, because the Republicans are gunning hard for the State House. And thumbing their nose at 84/86 counties would cost us the legislature.

            I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

            by OGGoldy on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 10:20:02 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Please, can we stop pretending (5+ / 0-)

              That counties is a useful metric in electoral politics? I get that the current Dem legislative majorities are somewhat dependent upon legislators in rural outstate areas, but people vote, not masses of land.

              •  I disagree with "somewhat" in your statement (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                nimh, BoswellSupporter

                Less than a 1/3rd of the state live in those two counties. And barely 1/8th of the state's population live in Minneapolis and St. Paul proper. It's not like Chicago and New York, where paying attention only to the urban core will win elections. It's basic math.

                I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

                by OGGoldy on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:29:15 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I wasn't objecting to your assertion (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, HoosierD42

                  That outstate was important. I was objecting to your use of the electorally meaningless and misleading statistic of "84/86 counties." Especially since the metro is more than just Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

                  •  That's just it though (0+ / 0-)

                    Dayton has greatly underperformed in the suburbs in his statewide races. Dayton doesn't even do well in the suburbs in Henneoin County, and likely loses the large part of the county outside of "the loop".

                    Either way, Dayton can't afford to thumb his nose at the ~40% of the state's population outside of the metro area. Especially because hr is weak in a large part of the other 60%

                    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

                    by OGGoldy on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 05:05:31 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

    •  Is Sieben in the 2nd congressional district? (0+ / 0-)

      If so would being Lt Gov help her in a possible future run?

      Racism, misogyny, and homophobia should NOT be protected by the Constitution.

      by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:59:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  She actually lives (2+ / 0-)

        In the tiny sliver of her senate district in MN-4. And really Mike Obermueller has marked his territory as first in line to  the seat when Kline steps aside. Given the overwhelming majority of the district's population is Dakota County, a candidate from there is going to be q better geographic option than someone from a fringe corner of the district. That being said, Sieben is a better politician than Obermueller.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:23:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats on Offense in 2014 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, demreplib33

    It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that I think Democrats need to go on offense more than they do. I have thought that and still think it.

    What would a platform constitute? Aside from raising the minimum wage and possibly making some very vague changes to the health care legislation, what do we have? I don't think it can be all that complicated, and unfortunately, they are probably some things that are non-starters. But then, does it need to be?

    I figure that if we campaign on a payroll tax cut, from both the employer side and the employee side, we don't need to do much else. It's something that is easy for people to understand, easy for red state Democrats to get behind, appealing to businesses because it quickly makes hiring a little less expensive, and it doesn't involve a new government program that might be easy for the other side to tar as wasteful. And not to get too much into policy, but it's probably the single most powerful fiscal move we could make unless we magically  control everything again.

    What are the Republicans going to say in response to this? If necessary, we can claim we will make up the revenue by a financial transaction tax and claim it's anti-Wall Street or something.

    You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

    by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:39:19 AM PST

    •  when you said "go on offense" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      I didn't think you were going to be talking about policies. I don't think proposing a tax cut is going to change anyone's mind or excite voters who may otherwise stay home.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:58:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, what might? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nimh

        It's not news that the economy is still rough, and the impression I get is that we need a fiscal response. A payroll tax cut would be just that, something that's easy to get behind for both liberal and conservative Democrats. Depending on the size, it would be a pretty decent boost to incomes that would occur pretty quickly. It seems like it'd be a good idea in general, but since we need something to get people to rally around, we might as well pick something that addresses a lingering issue like the lack of job creation.

        It doesn't have to be the only thing we propose, but I figure it should be the centerpiece because, again, all Democrats can get behind this. If your Mark Pryor or ALG looking for (another) edge, wouldn't a payroll tax cut that affects the working populations be something you'd like to talk about?

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:06:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  CA-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alibguy, Zack from the SFV

    This is perhaps the most bizarre campaign ad (appears to be a web video) I've seen in a long time.

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:00:55 AM PST

  •  Jolly leading Sink 47-43 and with better favs (0+ / 0-)

    Probably because of the primary but still not good news.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:02:09 AM PST

  •  MD Gov: Fundraising totals in (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Democrats:
    Brown/Ulman: $7.1 million
    Gansler/Ivey:  $6.3 million
    Mizeur/Coates $1.1 million, including $265K in public funding

    Republicans (lolz)
    Craig:  $183K
    George: $15K
    Lollar:     $6K

    •  Why is Gansler still a serious candidate? (8+ / 0-)

      Who would give money to him?

      19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

      by Tayya on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:07:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Craig's Total... (0+ / 0-)

      This shows just how weak the Republicans are in Maryland, because Craig is probably one of the strongest people on the Republican's 'Bench' right now, having served as a Mayor, in both houses of the Legislature and currently serving as a County Executive. He doesn't really have any Tea Party Bonafides, so exactly what the 'sane' portion of the Republican would want and is behind a Candidate who is Liberal for Maryland(Mizeur)

      •  Lollar's total is laughable (0+ / 0-)

        He was supposed to be the savior of the MD GOP. There was a whole "Draft Lollar" campaign to get him in, because as a black man he was the only Republican who could possibly take on the Democrats in Maryland. And he has less CoH than anybody. I've heard he has blown a lot of money on consultants, and we know how those campaigns usually go.

        •  It's bizarre, but not inexplicable (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian, Christopher Walker, jncca

          Republican activists get hot whenever they see an African-American conservative, regardless of whether said conservative is competent or not.  We saw it with EW Jackson, Lollar, Lynn Swann, and Michael Steele (though he's more competent than the others).

          בָּרוּךְ בֶּן מָרְדֳּכַי

          by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:40:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ben Carson! (0+ / 0-)

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:46:42 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Cain/Carson '16 (n/t) (0+ / 0-)

              19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

              by Tayya on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:49:11 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Carson/Cain '16 (nt) (0+ / 0-)

              19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

              by Tayya on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:51:01 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Carson's not as bad as Jackson. (0+ / 0-)

                Some of his opinions may be ridiculous, but he doesn't come across like a man completely out of his element like Cain or a deranged, raving nutcase like Jackson. Let's replace Carson with Jackson. Or better yet, Keyes/Carson 2016!

                You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:53:42 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Was Lynn Swann that bad? (0+ / 0-)

              I don't remember him being a joke like the others, but maybe I am forgetting something.

              You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

              by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:51:31 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  He didn't gain any traction at all. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                JBraden

                And I thought he was a woman based on his name for a while.

                בָּרוּךְ בֶּן מָרְדֳּכַי

                by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:52:44 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Anybody who doesn't watch football like that (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Adam B, gabjoh

                  would also mistaken his name for a woman. He was a wide receiver for the Steelers back in the 70's.

                  NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                  by BKGyptian89 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:55:20 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  But that's not in the same league (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades

                  as suggesting that yoga is a pathway to Satanism or something, as if that addressed the issues facing the state of Virginia. He just seemed like a standard underwhelming candidate.

                  You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                  by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:55:31 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Not a sports fan, eh? (0+ / 0-)

                  Heh

                  •  I am, somewhat (0+ / 0-)

                    I just didn't follow it until a decade ago.  And the Steelers have never been on my radar.  Also, Swann wasn't a football legend like OJ (spits), Madden, Jerry Rice, Joe Namath, Walter Payton, and Mean Joe Greene.

                    בָּרוּךְ בֶּן מָרְדֳּכַי

                    by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:00:18 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I remember someone who used to work (0+ / 0-)

                      for the corporate end of my company telling me that she was on a golf course in Florida, where OJ Simpson happened to be that same day, and people were walking up to him shaking his hand, as if he were any standard famous player.

                      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                      by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:05:04 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Wow (0+ / 0-)

                        Assuming this was pre-jail for him. Amazing what people will do just be around someone famous (infamous?).

                        My claim to fame would be meeting Dave Bing (Syracuse basketball star, NBA Hall of Famer, ex-Detroit Mayor) years ago at a Syracuse-area golf course. Probably only a big deal since I'm from the area though.

                        •  Not sure about pre-jail, but definitely (0+ / 0-)

                          after the 1995 trial.

                          I actually know one of the (ex-)wives of The Wolf of Wall Street guy, Jordan Belfort. I mean, I don't have a DNA test or anything, but I mentioned something about a job interview for a finance firm, and then the movie, back in August, and she asked me how I knew him. I said I didn't, but asked if she knew him, and she said she was his wife, and one of the kids she was with at the time was his son. I have to think she's telling the truth, because she looks like the picture I found on Google, although definitely like she's lost weight and had plastic surgery. And another time this came up, her daughter overheard us and mentioned how one of mommy's friends was in the movie. I don't think you'd create a lie like that to tell a little girl.

                          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                          by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 10:09:59 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                    •  True (0+ / 0-)

                      He is a Hall of Famer though. On paper he looked like a great recruit for the GOP (black, famous throughout the state, from Pittsburgh) but I think the year (2006) just did him in.

              •  He was terrible. (5+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, jj32, wadingo, JBraden, jncca

                He once came to speak at the Penn State campus. The focus of his speech? Property tax reform.

                But he was still a serious candidate with the backing of the state Republican party.

                http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

                by redrelic17 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:03:36 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Hey, with the shifting interests (0+ / 0-)

                  of today's youngsters (or is that yuttts?), maybe property tax reform would have been on their radar.

                  You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                  by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:07:02 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Swann wasn't a joke (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, Adam B

                but he was a lackluster and actually pretty boring candidate running against a well-funded incumbent in a bad year for the GOP in general but especially in PA.  I also think he expected to do well in SW PA just based on Steelers goodwill, which didn't happen.  If he hadn't had been on the Steelers first he would have been a pretty standard Some Dude businessman/broadcaster.  

            •  Im actually very surprised they didnt try to get (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BeloitDem

              Carson to run for governor this year. Maybe they did behind the scenes, but I never saw anything public about it. He's at least got some name recognition in conservative circles that would have brought him outside money. Nobody outside of Maryland knows or cares who any of the Republican candidates are.

          •  Don't forget Mia Love! (0+ / 0-)

            Seriously, I'm still disappointed in the Democrats giving up here. Maybe if we have our own non-white candidate in UT-04, we can at least have a discussion about white privilege and racism.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 11:36:59 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I feel (0+ / 0-)

              like I've asked this already, but has nobody else declared? Are we really giving up this seat so easily?

              Also, Love isn't a ridiculous candidate. Conservative, yes, and highlight more because of her race, but I don't think she's said anything to put her in the same league as Jackson.

              You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

              by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:14:31 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  You have asked before, actually. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, demreplib33

                And I've complained ten times before, heh.

                In any case, no UT-04 candidate has announced, but the filing deadline is March 20th, and I'm told by a few party insiders that at least one Dem candidate is looking at running in UT-04. I haven't been told who the candidate is, or who else might be looking at the race, but we will have a candidate.

                I'm not sure of the quality of candidate, however. I'm guessing we're going to get a little-known (or first-time candidate) sacrificial lamb Dem with a prestigious name (like a son or grandson of one of the past Dem Congresspeople) to "lose with dignity" and avoid the loss of any of the few Utah Dem elected officials, but I could be wrong. I think that whoever they put up for this race will indicate Utah Dem strategies in the near future.

                Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:23:18 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Isn't UT04 (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Gygaxian, demreplib33

                  moving closer to us, slowly but surely, or was it changed too much in redistricting? Looking at the topline numbers from 2008 to 2012, it seems like it didn't changed all that much beyond how the other districts moved because of Romney's candidacy.

                  You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                  by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:28:57 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Yeah, the Romney candidacy screwed everything up (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    bjssp, demreplib33, killjoy

                    Now any would-be Utah Dem politicians or political analysts have to reach back to 2008 or earlier to figure out the numbers without a "favorite son" effect.

                    I personally think it's trending towards us, simply because Matheson was able to win with a brand-new, more gerry-mandered district. Part of that was a growing Hispanic population, which he utilized.

                    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                    by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:44:42 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I may be wrong but my recollection was (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    jncca

                    That the legislature made UT-04 the most attractive prospect for Matheson on purpose, but that they added in a lot of fast-growing and young areas (which isn't as good a thing in Utah as it would be in say, Georgia) to screw us up further down the line.

                    25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

                    by HoosierD42 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 02:08:22 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  I feel like we should be able to compete there. (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Gygaxian, bjssp, demreplib33

                  Obviously with a conservative Democrat, but still.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:33:11 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Or at least lose with diginity (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, bjssp, demreplib33, gabjoh

                    As in, getting a bit closer to winning than anyone expected, though still losing by 10 or 15 points (rather than 20 or 30 with a wannabe Bernie Sanders of Utah).

                    Again, I have no idea who, but I do think the Utah Dem leadership will push for a conservaDem, just to build back up goodwill for Utah Dems after Matheson leaves.

                    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                    by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:51:28 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Given that the seat (0+ / 0-)

                      is at worst not moving away from us, it's sad that we are talking about that instead of actively trying to keep it.

                      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                      by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 01:16:57 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  My view is that it's an even worse McKeon seat (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        nimh

                        Quickly trending our way (especially with the right kind of Dem), but perhaps not quick enough. I think Mia Love will go for Senate in a few cycles anyway (if she isn't booted out of the nomination for UT-04), so it's not like it'll be Mia Love holding it forever.

                        We just don't currently have anyone with the name recognition, uber-moderate reputation, or goodwill that Matheson had.

                        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                        by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 01:42:07 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

    •  Lollar did far better in his run against Hoyer (0+ / 0-)

      בָּרוּךְ בֶּן מָרְדֳּכַי

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:41:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  A question that hit me (0+ / 0-)

    Why isn't there a tally listing the members of Congress who have launched their re-election campaigns/confirmed they're running again? It would be neat having such a list, if nothing else to have more to speculate about.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:40:27 AM PST

  •  VA-Gov: T-Mac rewards GOP defector: (5+ / 0-)

    http://hamptonroads.com/...

    Christie did similar stuff in his 2013 campaign by bribing cross-party endorsements with patronage.

    בָּרוּךְ בֶּן מָרְדֳּכַי

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:55:16 AM PST

  •  AR-02: GOP banker French Hill raises $568K (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tayya, James Allen, KyleinWA

    What a haul for a candidate running in metro Little Rock. Additionally, Hill raised this much money after already hitting up some of the same people for money for the race for the State House of Representatives that he was planning to run in 2014 before Tim Griffin announced his retirement. I'm curious to see what Pat Hays raised.

    http://www.fox16.com/...

    From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

    by IllinoyedR on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:26:37 AM PST

  •  Anyone notice that Obama's approve/disapprove (8+ / 0-)

    is up to 51-47 on Rasmussen?  Out there on their own.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:29:45 AM PST

  •  NH 2016 PPP (5+ / 0-)

    Clinton continues to be the favorite for a general election in New Hampshire. She leads Christie 43/39, numbers identical to what they were on our last poll in September. She holds double digit advantages over the rest of the Republican candidate field- it's 11 points over Jeb Bush at 49/38, 13 points over Rand Paul at 50/37, and 19 points over Ted Cruz at 51/32.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    Christie up 24-12 over Bush and Paul in the Republican primary.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:32:04 AM PST

  •  Tony Strickland is... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    a scumbag.

    It would be a travesty if that jerk got into Congress. I will be sending money to the Rogers campaign.

  •  IL-Gov: Bill Brady rasied $74,000 LOL (8+ / 0-)

    Bill Brady raised a pathetic $74,000 last quarter. But he at least has more cash on hand than Dillard does lol, with $270,000 COH.

    I reported other numbers last night, but I misreported Dillard's because I forgot to add in his Senate account as well.  So Dillard raised $328,000, has $144,000 COH.  As Rich Miller points out, Dillard doesn't even have enough money to cover January's overhead expenses.

    Rutherford brought in almost $400,000, but has $1.37 million COH.

    And Rauner raised $4.1 million, but he spent $4.3 million and only has $400,000 COH now.

    And repeating from last nightQuinn raised nearly $1.9 million and has $4.5 millon COH.

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 10:19:00 AM PST

    •  Oh yeah, and Tio Hardiman (4+ / 0-)

      who is running in the Democratic primary, raised a whopping $15,000.  Well, that's what his campaign brought in; he actually loaned himself $13,000, and raised $2,000.  He has $550 COH (no I'm not missing any numbers or letters there).  Just thought I would point that out for certain delusional people who believe Hardiman is going to soak up all the support Quinn "lost" by signing pension reform ;)

      28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 10:23:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Unions don't like either Quinn or Hardiman (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson

        Hardiman's campaign platform previously included a plank that said that he'd strategize with billionaires on economic development, although he's since scrubbed that from his website.

        On another note, another thing that I've noticed is that many unions have gotten VERY stingy about endorsing candidates in the last couple of years.

        There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

        by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:43:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Indiana- Hogsett will not run in 2015/16 (3+ / 0-)

    for any office and will remain as US Atty for the Southern District of Indiana. Many people saw him as either a candidate for Mayor of Indianapolis or Governor. This takes away the strongest Dem candidate against Mayor Greg Ballard in 2015 and further clears the field for the Dem Gov nomination if Evan Bayh decides to run.

    http://www.wishtv.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 10:47:49 AM PST

    •  Interesting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42

      We should be fine with regard to Indy Mayor in 2015. I think City Councilor Vop Osili would be a solid candidate among others, and if Ballard doesn't run again, the race should tilt in our favor right out of the gate. I hope Hogsett keeps his mind open about running for office once his service as US Attorney is completed.

    •  I would have liked him for Senate, if Bayh (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      wanted to run for Governor instead. But there's still two years to go, and there's no guarantee the next President, even if it's Clinton, will keep him on as USA

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 02:11:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-Gov: Maldonado out (12+ / 0-)

    http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

    That pretty much clears the way for Tim Donnelly to make the top two. This is good for down ballot Democrats.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 10:57:52 AM PST

    •  What will he do instead? (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 11:01:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Would Donnelly be better at turning out the base? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      Maldonado appeared to appeal to basically no one.

      19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

      by Tayya on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 11:04:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Donnelly appeals to conservatives (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem

        They will turn out for him, but they turn out every cycle, anyway.

        27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 11:10:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He'll turn out the base way better than Maldo (0+ / 0-)

        but will probably do even worse with Independents and maybe even put Orange County in play for Brown again.

        Redistricting is an officeholder's nightmare because overnight it can change the makeup of his constituency sufficiently perhaps to cost him the next election." -Speaker Joseph Martin

        by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 06:43:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  The Republican base in California is 30% (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        The "base" doesn't matter there.

        They get those, plus a few center-right R leaners.

        That's it.

        I hope Dems can take advantage downballot of GOP despondency.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:50:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think the base is 35% (0+ / 0-)

          Especially in a midterm.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 11:57:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Not Sure (0+ / 0-)

      I've actually been thinking about the Maldonado/Donnelly match-up the last few days. Maldonado would have a little more pull with moderates than Donnelly, but I think they would still by-and-large stick with Brown. At least Donnelly will bring out the base in numbers. Both of them would be destroyed with ease, but I think Maldonado would've killed Republican turnout which might have helped us downballot. I'm hopeful that Donnelly will at least say a bunch of dumb remarks that get other Republicans in the state in trouble by association (if such exists).

      •  Probably not much difference (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        aamail6, nimh

        I do think that moderates would vote for Brown even if he was up against Maldonado, but as far as turnout goes, I think Democrats would be far more likely to turnout if Donnelly was in the top two, rather than Maldonado.

        27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 11:25:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yes and no (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        Donnelly is going to piss off Hispanics and business Republicans, and they will vote for Brown.  But Donnelly could actually help the Rs down ballot by turning out wingnuts, teabaggers, and bigots in droves.  The centrist and business Rs who vote for Brown will split their ticket for the GOP downballot.

        But Donnelly will further widen the bridge between Hispanics and the Rs nationally.  The Ds would be smart to use Donnelly nationwide.

        Racism, misogyny, and homophobia should NOT be protected by the Constitution.

        by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:13:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  He just tweeted yesterday that he would (0+ / 0-)

      be a better governor than Brown.

      So you dont think Kashkari or another Republican will get in and make the top two?

    •  Inevitable (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, gabjoh, DrPhillips

      I strongly doubted that Maldonado would even make it to the first round of this election. He barely made it into 2014. Bad candidate, bad campaign.

      Donnelly seems like the most tone-deaf foil Democrats have had since Dan Lungren ran for governor. Lungren thought he could win in 1998 as Ronald Reagan, which was a mistake. Donnelly seems cut from the same cloth. Only the state is way, way more blue than it was sixteen years ago. The key here will be to bait him into saying incendiary things about immigrants (not hard) to get Hispanics to the polls, and retake 31 and 21.

    •  Brown probably wins the whole coast now (3+ / 0-)

      Orange and San Luis Obispo might have held out with Abel, but Brown should easily win SLO now and hopefully Orange.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 01:12:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Finance Reports (0+ / 0-)

    They were due yesterday, right?

    How come 90% of reports on the FEC site have the last report listed as the September report, at leaf for Texans?

    Anyone know?

    SSP alumni, 29, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

    by trowaman on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 11:26:59 AM PST

  •  NY-04: I think it's safe to say Rice is running (8+ / 0-)

    When you take a personal/political trip to DC, most likely talking to Steve Israel and the DCCC, that's all the evidence you need right there.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 11:29:25 AM PST

    •  So who might take on King? (0+ / 0-)

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:15:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Probably no one (0+ / 0-)

        Not a big name at least. We'll have to wait until that is an open seat, or if there is a Dem wave election, although King won in 06 and 08.

        •  I don't even think it needs to be (0+ / 0-)

          someone who is already in politics. I just think it needs to be someone who can get a small amount of money to actually make his or her presence known.

          If we aren't going to get someone in politics at the local level, in an ideal world, we'd get someone who can get at least $200-300,000. That's not enough to run a full campaign, but at least this person wouldn't be anonymous like our 2012 candidate. And 2014 probably won't be like 2006, but possibly more like 2010. We'd get a better idea of our base under more normal to bad circumstances, giving us a good idea of how much to target the district in 2016, regardless of who runs.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:42:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah that's what I was thinking too (0+ / 0-)

        But you got to take your opportunities once they open up. McCarthy retired instead of King, and she's immediately seizing it. She probably would be waiting for a while to wait for King to retire. And plus NY-04 is more blue than NY-02.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:34:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He's been buddying it up with (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        Democrats in the House and the LI/NY delegation.  There may be a backdoor agreement to not generate or back a strong challenge to him.  I'd guess that in return he hangs it up in 2016 or 2018.

        IIRC his district is marginally desirable- close to tipping D, or barely across the line.  But economically stagnant at best, with a lot of voters who were white flighters and lots of middle income suburban malaise.

        •  His new district? Not really. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          I don't know if I'd call it economically stagnant. It's not booming like North Dakota, but most if not all of LI is better than the rest of the state and is doing better than the rest of the country. His older district was probably a better fit for his personality: lots of cops and retired cops and the like, and their families, or basically big government conservative types, if friends from college are any indication. His new district isn't that different, but it has a big chunk of heavily non-white towns that I believe the other one lacked. (I wouldn't be surprised if this inflated his 2012 opponent's numbers somewhat.) It's also got a lot of new territory to him in general.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:50:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Also, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      despite local strength of the Republicans, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district. From Newsday:

      As of the November 2013 election, McCarthy's district had 511,919 registered voters -- 40 percent Democrats, 35 percent Republicans and Conservatives and 21 percent without a party.

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:16:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  And almost 1/3 of Mormons support it. (13+ / 0-)

      Very nice. The civil unions numbers are excellent as well; I think the Mormons who support civil unions wouldn't be too aggravated if the Supreme Court said that marriage equality is here to stay.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 11:42:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It really is the epitome of a losing issue (7+ / 0-)

        for Republicans. For as much strength as it might give them in some cases now, it's going to cost them something to be associated with it over the long term. What's more, when it is universal around the country, some people will still disapprove, but they can't do anything to stop it, and they'll look completely ridiculous opposing it in a vocal way.

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:18:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, I think GOP really doesnt (7+ / 0-)

          know how to handle the issue.

          The shift in views on this issue caught a lot of people by surprise, across the political spectrum. Social conservatism  has been the core of the GOP for a while, and an anti-gay marriage message helped them in their last presidential election win in 2004.

          •  The smarter ones do. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bythesea, The Caped Composer

            Assuming it's not rejected as part of some more dramatic shift in politics that fundamentally alters our structures, it'll be as David Brooks described it in 2004: as part of a standard, middle class/church-going/upstanding citizen/law-and-order-not-soft-on-crime/wearing-the standard-IBM-suit-in-the-1950s recommendation. Or, forgive this comparison, but basically, like Charlotte on "Sex and the City," who was traditional in wanting a family lifestyle but not at all bigoted.

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:35:27 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Well they're in a tight bind (0+ / 0-)

            I would argue that they knew this would happen eventually but not as fast as it is. I think most conservatives expected support for gay marriage to increase no more than 1% a year.
            But they forget to take into account how much more liberal the younger generations are on the issue.

            I say the GOP is in a tight bind because well over a majority of its base still opposes gay marriage, and fears that the loss of that base is still much larger than any gains can be made from independents and moderates.

            Redistricting is an officeholder's nightmare because overnight it can change the makeup of his constituency sufficiently perhaps to cost him the next election." -Speaker Joseph Martin

            by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 06:52:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  No, they know what they're doing (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8

          Most of the pro-gay marriage crowd are folks who would vote Democrat regardless. Those who are against it pretty much make up their core constituency. If they bailed on gay marriage, there would be an insurrection from the Christian right.

          There's no telling how far it would go, but from my experience, many of those folks are pretty much single or double issue voters: Gays and abortion are all they care about. I wouldn't be surprised if many just stayed home if given a choice between two supporters of gay marriage.

          And that's a Really Bad Thing for the Republicans. Their entire strength right now is based on the fervency of their core constituency. The Christian right, while its influence is waning in the Republican Party, is by far the most reliable voting bloc in existence. They show up to vote every single time there's an election, like God's gonna smite their ass if they don't. Without them showing up at the polls, they start losing midterms and specials.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (TBD - Likely Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 02:33:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  There's a contingent of Mormons (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, TeaBaggersAreRacists

        Particularly of the FLDS persuasion and similar, that would like to use same sex marriage as a stepping stone to, if not full plural marriage rights, at least an end federal bigamy laws.

    •  Anyone still insisting (6+ / 0-)

      that same-sex marriage doesn't yet have majority support nationwide?  Unless literally every single poll in every single state inflates the numbers.

    •  I'm surprised how close it is among 50+ (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      You'd think that Gay marriage would be at least down double digits with that demographic but instead we're only down 6 points.

      Redistricting is an officeholder's nightmare because overnight it can change the makeup of his constituency sufficiently perhaps to cost him the next election." -Speaker Joseph Martin

      by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:01:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NC 2016 PPP (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, jj32, bythesea

    Bridgegate doesn't seem to be having much of an impact on Chris Christie's standing with North Carolina Republicans. He continues to lead the GOP primary field in the state, getting 17% to 14% for Jeb Bush and Rand Paul, 11% for Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan, 9% for Marco Rubio, 5% for Bobby Jindal, 4% for Rick Santorum, and 3% for Scott Walker. That's little different from his 4 point lead over Bush a month ago.
    Christie is also the only one of the Republican hopefuls who leads Hillary Clinton in the state, albeit by the razor thin margin of 43/42. Clinton has small leads over Jeb Bush (46/44), Rand Paul (47/43), and Ted Cruz (47/41).

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    McCrory approval/disapproval 37/47.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 11:36:55 AM PST

    •  At this point (5+ / 0-)

      I hardly think 17-14-14-11-9 really qualifies as much of a "lead" for Christie.  That could evaporate instantly.

      •  I also wonder if the idea (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        that this is a NE corridor story might apply here. I'm sure they've heard about it, but do they know the details? Do they care all that much? If not, his lead, such as it is, might be weaker than it looks. I'm confident that if it something really bad comes out, he'll plummet everywhere, including NC, after a while. But it hasn't gotten there yet in NJ, so I am not surprised it's not all that different miles away in NC.

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:37:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Bridgegate is a perfect "campaigns matter" issue (5+ / 0-)

      No one around the country cares about it much for the tissue itself, but it is a pure loser for Christie and a winner for every single one of his opponents.  Not a soul would say they think it is a good idea that he didn't know about it, and everyone can appreciate that it is a justifiable way to attack his leadership ability.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 01:19:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  KY-Sen- Bevin raises nearly $900k in the 4Q (8+ / 0-)

    http://bluegrasspolitics.bloginky.com/...

    Much better than his last report, and of course he can always get out his checkbook.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:08:29 PM PST

  •  Interesting point about IA-03 (0+ / 0-)

    Leonard Boswell was a member of the Reorganized Latter Day Saints/Community of Christ, while Matt Schultz is an active mainstream Latter-Day Saint. I'd like a Democrat to be elected to this seat, but a Mormon to Mormon switch (even if Latham held the seat for two years and it's not the same kind of Mormon) in Iowa is interesting.

    I wonder if there's any Mormon Democrats in Iowa, whether Community of Christ or mainstream Mormon.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:15:06 PM PST

    •  didn't Joseph Smith migrate to western IL (0+ / 0-)

      before Brigham Young led the Mormans to Salt Lake? If so, given western IL borders IA, I can see why there might be a halfway decent Mormon presence in Iowa

      •  Yes, we settled/built Nauvoo, Illinois (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, HoosierD42, geoneb

        (which still exists, and is now represented by Aaron Schock, incidentally), and lived there for about 5 years before Joseph Smith was assassinated and we decided the Midwest was too dangerous for Mormons.

        From there, we went through Iowa, temporarily living in Council Bluffs as a waypoint to Utah, then moving on to a place we Mormons call "Winter Quarters" in what was then unorganized Nebraska (Winter Quarters is basically North Omaha now). After literally chilling out in Winter Quarters, we hilariously used the same trail used by the Donner Party (with no cannibalism, thankfully) and traveled through both Wyoming and part of Colorado to get to the Salt Lake Valley, where we settled.

        Incidentally, Lilburn Boggs, the Governor that literally issued an "Extermination Order" on the Mormons? He went on the actual Donner Party wagon train, and nearly ended up with the same fate as the Donner Party, but had a dispute over leadership of the train and formed his own wagon train, taking a different route.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:35:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nauvoo (0+ / 0-)

          I live across the river from Nauvoo.  We have a fair share of Mormon business owners in my town.  Nauvoo is a great town, I eat at a local diner there once a year.  My cousin works at that diner as well.  

          IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

          by BoswellSupporter on Fri Jan 17, 2014 at 05:38:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Boswell Is From Decatur County, Iowa...... (0+ / 0-)

        ...which is the most heavily Mormon county in Iowa, which is very surprising given the extent of the rural poverty there (it's easily the poorest county in Iowa).  I believe the small town of Garden Grove, in Decatur County, is Iowa's largest Mormon settlement.

      •  Elaborating On That.... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, WisJohn

        ....Highway 2 running through southern Iowa from Nauvoo, Illinois, westward is also known as the Mormon Trail.  It runs through Boswell's old farm.

  •  Would-Be Vice-Presidents (8+ / 0-)

    I just noticed that at least 2 (maybe 3) former nominees for the Vice Presidency of the United States are running for Governor of California in 2014.

    Of course they were on the Peace and Freedom, Green, and Libertarian party tickets...

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 12:30:13 PM PST

  •  NV-LG: Reid appears to have given (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Assemblywoman Lucy Flores his blessing to run for Lt. Governor. This election is scene as important in keeping Gov. Sandoval out of the Senate race in 2016.

    Last week, Reid began touting a little-known state assemblywoman for the job — Las Vegas attorney Lucy Flores.

    “I think she could beat them all,” Reid gushed to Reno Gazette-Journal political writer Ray Hagar. “Demographically, she’s perfect. Young, dynamic, Hispanic. She’s great.”

    Also, a poll was done that mentioned her early background.
    A Democratic polling firm, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, tested the waters for her.

    Las Vegas Review-Journal political writer Laura Myers reported Monday that in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Flores lost to Hutchison, 41 percent to 35 percent. But once respondents were read a script explaining Flores’ background, she edged Hutchison by a narrow margin.

    The history they read was this:

    “Lucy grew up as one of 13 children in a low-income Hispanic family. Her mother left home when she was 9 years old, and she was raised by her father. Lucy got involved with gangs and was sentenced to juvenile detention for stealing a car. She dropped out of high school, and at age 16 she became pregnant and had an abortion because she did not want to be a teenage mother like her sisters."

    “Lucy decided to turn her life around, earned her GED, attended community college, earned a scholarship to the University of Southern California, and graduated from law school at UNLV.”

    Upon hearing Flores’ hard-knock background, those polled described her as “strong,” “determined” and a “go-getter.”

    http://www.reviewjournal.com/...
  •  Alternate Universe Electoral Map (0+ / 0-)

    I took the 1984 State PVIs (it's as far back as you can go and accurately get 2-party strength ignoring Carter's Southern boost) and accounted for demographic shift in each state.
    http://www.270towin.com/....

    Basically, if White voters voted how they did in 1984, but slightly more conservatively, this would be our presidential election map.  There actually aren't a ton of differences.

    Georgia and Texas's minority growth pays dividends far sooner than it will in reality.  The ancestrally Republican Northeastern states (NJ, VT, DE, NH, ME) are swingy or even Republican leaning.  And Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, and West Virginia are swingy instead of Republican, while the Upper Midwest is bluer than it is currently.  Finally, Colorado and Nevada stay red, as do the Southern states Obama won.

    All in all, an interesting counterfactual, leading to a 206-158 Democratic edge.  

    NOTE: In a large but not blowout Dem win like 2008, Republicans only win the states West of the Mississippi that McCain won (54 EVs) plus South Carolina and New Hampshire for a total of only 67 EVs.  In a similar sized GOP blowout, Dems win CA, OR, WA, IL, IA, MN, WI, NY, DC, PA, MD, MA, and RI for 197 EVs.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 02:15:46 PM PST

  •  GA-Sen: GOP scare Dems will dabble in primary (7+ / 0-)

    Just like what Harry Reid and Claire McCaskill did for their respective races in 2010 and 2012.

    http://georgiatipsheet.com/...

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 02:20:31 PM PST

  •  NY-GOV: Cuomo has 33.3M CoH (5+ / 0-)

    This race is in the bag I'm hoping Cuomo cracks 70% and has strong coattails to help us out in NY-04 & NY-21 and hopefully win back the State Senate.

    •  Cuomo has to campaign for Dems (14+ / 0-)

      for there to be coattails.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 02:31:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Candidate recruitment first (0+ / 0-)

        While we've done well challenging people like Greg Ball, we haven't fielded a candidate in certain seats.  I'm all for criticizing Dems not throwing their weight around, but Dem recruitment was not great upsate in 2010 or 2012.

        For instance Betty Little in SD-45, which Obama must have won by something like 65-35 in 2012 (back of envelope math), was unopposed in 2010 and 2012.  Cuomo probably got about 65-70% in 2010 also.  No way in hell this should be an unopposed race for a Republican.  Paging any Dem in Clinton or Warren county.  Bueller, Bueller?

        Same with SD-47 which isn't nearly as Dem friendly as SD-45 but you have to at least try here (this ain't rural Oklahoma) as well as numerous other upstate seats.  

        Maybe an opportunity in Erie without Palladino running, since he was from Buffalo and won Erie 60-40 over Cuomo.

        I'd also think we could win at least one Suffolk SD since Cuomo wins there 60-40.  

        And can someone in Syracuse primary Vallesky, his IDC schtick boters me more than any of the downstate IDC crowd.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:05:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  We also need to replace the IDC, Felder (0+ / 0-)

          And John Sampson/Malcolm Smith, assuming they're running again.

          25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

          by HoosierD42 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:10:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Felder is in a super Orthodox and Hassidic seat (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, nimh

            he's the only Democrat (aside from Hikind) who can carry such a district comfortably.

            Maybe if regular Dems take over, he'll feel silly and side back with them.  Especially if he wants to cut deals for yeshivas (Orthodox Jewish schools) in his district.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:30:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  If you've got a solid strategy I'm all ears (0+ / 0-)

            Problem is some of these I don't think we're getting rid of barring their deaths.

            But Betty Little is a 73 year-old Republican in a 65% Obama/65% Cuomo district who runs unopposed, to me that's much easier than trying to convince a "less informed" electorate that the Democrat they vote for is actually supporting Republicans through and through.

            I honestly think a decent challenger pushes Little to retire, but who knows.  Some of these upstate seats are primed for a little more attention.  Farley (82 years old) could probably be pushed to retirement by a very strong challenger from Schenectady.  Might be a sacrifical lamb the first go-round but I'd imagine eventually he will retire.

            If Farley is allowed to retire without a push and on his own terms he's just going to annoint his son who will hold the seat for another 40 years.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:30:58 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Felder seems untouchable (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8

            He demolished his primary opponent and then demolished the incumbent GOP Senator.  He seems to be a kind of brand unto himself that his district likes, regardless of party.

            As for Sampson and Smith, I can't imagine they are running again after their indictments.  Anyone have info on that?  The previous indicted NY Senators are gone, don't see why it should be hard to get rid of them too.

            •  I hope you're right (0+ / 0-)

              About indictments telling them not to run, I just don't have much faith in those 2.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:42:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Good point (0+ / 0-)

        He can't be a Dem version of Christie if we are to expect coattails.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:28:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Holy crap, $33.3 million? (0+ / 0-)

      That's a ridiculously high amount for a gubernatorial race.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 02:32:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Cuomo should bait Trump in the race (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, sulthernao, nimh, itskevin, geoneb

      It looks like he may be toying with a run Cuomo should do everything he can to get him to jump he should no problem crushing Trump and breaking 70%.

    •  I'd be interested in seeing data (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      but I'm thinking that a more closely contested race is more likely to have an effect down the ballot than one in which one side wins a landslide in a race that wasn't seriously contested.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:04:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ committee issues 20 subpoenas in Bridgegate (6+ / 0-)

    Originally, they were only going to subpoena Kelly and Stepien, but that list has grown after Reid Schar was brought on. He was an assistant US Attorney who helped prosecute Blago.

    Now the list is 20, 17 people including Samson and Regina Egea, and 3 organizations, including Christie's re-election campaign.

    link.

  •  MA-Gov: Katherine Clark endorsed Coakley. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Gygaxian
  •  VRA stuff (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Good to see that Texas was included in the new VRA amendment. It'll also be good to hit Ohio, Pennsylvania and others with the new law.

    I'm encouraged than Sensenbrenner is co-sponsoring it. That means the establishment is probably okay with it, which means Boehner is probably okay with it. I think this passes, perhaps with some amendments that'll further weaken it. But hell, I'll take what I can get.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (TBD - Likely Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:04:50 PM PST

    •  Texas will be in any formula (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      It is among the worst states period.

      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:10:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  the article says only TX, MS, LA, and GA (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag

      would be included currently under the proposed formula.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:17:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  a good start but not great (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42

      MS, LA, GA, and TX are covered. A couple of states, like FL and VA and to a lesser extent NC are not covered and I could be okay with that (given they are the "new south" and getting bluer, less to worry about there, maybe?). But seriously, SC is the birthplace of the Civil War and AL has Selma...those two states have an atrocious civil rights history. They should be covered.

    •  I don't understand (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      why Republicans would cooperate on this at all, given their recent behavior in practically every other similar circumstance. It's not because they care about non-whites being able to vote -- of that I'm pretty much certain. So any cooperation on this smells a little off to me. What's their game? What's in it for them?

      •  They care about getting elected and realize (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        it's hard to do that with 15% of the non-White vote.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 05:17:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Gov: Vinehout not running for governor (5+ / 0-)

    ...it's unclear whether or not she'll run for re-election to the state senate.

    This gives Mary Burke a clear primary field.

    Link

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:12:52 PM PST

  •  KY House votes 82-12 to give voting rights (18+ / 0-)

    to ex-felons who did not commit heinous crimes:
    http://bluegrasspolitics.bloginky.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:34:22 PM PST

  •  Get your 2060 redistricting hats on! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, KingTag

    "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

    by BlueSasha on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:44:17 PM PST

    •  If Utah gets a 5th or 6th seat (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BlueSasha, SaoMagnifico

      Then maybe the Republicans will finally be unable to gerrymander them all. That'll be nice.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:47:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hey, you could get two Dem SLC districts out of (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, SaoMagnifico

        that, potentially!

        "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

        by BlueSasha on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 03:51:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  The number of districts is not a key question (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Avedee

        for you can have some favourable district. You need to improve the percentages of Democratic vote. This is the key for you. Strong Gerrymanders are possible with bigger number of districts. See Oklahoma as example.

        •  Uh... (0+ / 0-)

          Oklahoma isn't a gerrymander at all, and there's no potential way to draw a clean Democratic district anymore.

          24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 05:10:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, big difference between the states (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Gygaxian, Avedee

            Utah has 85% GOP areas balanced by some swingy areas.  Oklahoma just has a ton of 60% and 70% GOP areas.  Rural, city, it doesn't matter.  You can't even start to make a winnable district anymore that doesn't crack both OK City and Tulsa and string them together.

            •  I think they had to crack SLC (0+ / 0-)

              To get the 4 GOP seats (including Matheson's seat). If SLC and it's center-lefty suburbs grow anymore, they won't be able to crack it anymore.

              Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

              by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 05:52:23 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  No they can always crack it (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, KingTag

                if the state is still voting R+15 or so. Just slice it 5 or 6 ways instead of 4. They're not about to allow a Democrat in Congress when it's easy to draw every seat ridiculously Republican.

              •  I'm sure it could be bacon-mandered (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                but at what point would their incumbents complain about the shifts to their districts?  Same thing with Tennessee...they could theoretically draw an 8-1 map, if they carved up East Tennessee into a series of strips going east-west across the state, and every district would be Blue Dog proof.  But their incumbents would lose their minds.  Their incumbents wouldn't even tolerate weakening Cooper's seat at all.

                The reason Matheson even won his final term in 2012 was because the legislature didn't want to go just a little bit further to make his seat redder.  Two of the districts in the state went 80% Romney.  The other two went only 70% Romney.  Mathematically they could have went further but I guess there was only so much they could do without upsetting their two incumbents.  And hell they are likely to have four incumbents to please the next time they add a district.  They might very well just concede a swingy 60% Romney (50% McCain) seat based mostly in Salt Lake County.

                •  not to mention the non-SL County parts of the (0+ / 0-)

                  state will be demanding their own districts.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:30:30 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen

                    People get really parochial about this stuff.  There would be a lot of interests, some of them with the ears of GOP legislators, complaining about seeing themselves diluted with SLC, potentially denying them the ability to elect a representative from their area.

              •  I'm trying to draw a 6-district Utah right now (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Gygaxian

                that respects the existing incumbents at least somewhat...not that they'll still be around when Utah gets that 6th seat, but for their successors who presumably would want districts at least similar to what they got elected to.

                It's hard to do a GOP gerrymander that doesn't leave a seat only narrowly won by McCain, or a couple that are in reach for Democrats in Dem waves.  The legislature will presumably draw a seat based in north Utah, with Weber County anchoring it (Rob Bishop's current seat).  There also has to be a Provo seat (Jason Chaffetz's current one)...though it can soak up some of SLC, rapid population growth in that corridor will limit that amount in the future, and Provo might get to the point where it basically fills its own district.

                Both of those seats will be massively Republican.  That leaves four other seats to try to bacon-mander SLC, but it gets real difficult considering that there will be other Republican incumbents who don't care to take a piece of SLC.  A third seat could be based in Davis County and push into northern SLC, and presumably there will be some successor to the current UT-04 that takes in southern parts of the metro area.  But that leaves two districts to split the rest down the middle and then push out to the rural areas on either side of the state.

                Might be worth a project tomorrow.  Draw a 6-0 GOP Utah map that has four districts at least somewhat similar to their current incarnations!

          •  Eh you could draw a district (0+ / 0-)

            from Tulsa to Oklahoma City that would be solidly Democratic and look like a long tube, but that's about as clean as it gets. Agree that it isn't a gerrymander at all. The only odd thing about the map is throwing those random rural areas in with Oklahoma City in the 5th.

          •  Here's my favorite map of OK (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tommypaine

             photo OklahomaDem1-3-1StateView_zpsc7e4ac98.png
             photo OklahomaDem1-3-1Summary_zps0c5e2c12.png

            The 5th is strongly Dem by Oklahoma standards while the 2nd moves 3 points to the left and maybe Dan Boren could have held on but I'm guessing not.

            •  Why do you think Boren couldn't have held on? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades

              He was one of the few Blue Dogs who had an easy race in 2010.  He was a pretty solid conservative, and has a legacy name.  I think if he hadn't retired he could have held that seat for a long time.

              •  I think they would have got him eventually (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Stephen Wolf, uclabruin18

                Even on the local level, Oklahoma Democrats are starting to lose these Demosaur districts, areas that 10 years ago you'd swear would never, ever vote for a Republican.

                I don't think you can assume any Democrat could keep holding a 68% Romney seat indefinitely.  The guy Boren beat in 2010 was a total Some Dude...they would have come after him more seriously in the future, and held him to closer and closer wins, until finally getting him.  Same pattern in historically GOP areas that kept trending Dem to the point of finally voting out their GOP incumbents.  Can't beat the PVI forever.

          •  I agree that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            we should not call the map of Oklahoma a strong Republican Gerrymander

            the most important part of my comment was that in a state like the current Utah or the current Oklahoma, a 4R-0D map can be done, but also can be done a 6R-0D map and a 8R-0D map

            In Utah they need to increase the percentage of Democratic vote for the Republican map drawers concede them a seat

            •  yeah I was able to do one R+10, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              abgin

              one R+14 and all the rest crazy Republican in a 6 district Utah map without even trying that hard. With some GIS wizzes on a professional program I'm sure you could do better.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Jan 17, 2014 at 07:48:32 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  lol at projecting 46 years out (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, lordpet8

      Amusing that California neither gains nor loses a seat.  Just a fraction of a percent change and all that could change in such a huge state.

      Also, wtf to Louisiana gaining back the seat it just lost.  Is the state really growing that rapidly?

    •  This is widely inaccurate (0+ / 0-)

      There's no way Texas ends up with that small a number.

      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 05:09:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •   Kyrsten Sinema (0+ / 0-)

    I had no idea about her opposing the Russelrecall. She does really look opportunistic. Is she positioning herself for a senate run?

  •  hahaha (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    Kissell's "entire congressional tenure." If you blinked at the wrong time you probably missed it.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 04:27:46 PM PST

    •  Kissell's another one of those guys (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Udestedt, lordpet8, KingTag

      to quickly go from "Dailykos hero" to "could care less".  I remember seeing him on fundraising lists back in 2006, hearing excitement about the "regular guy social studies teacher", or at least that image he put up.  He was supposedly fed up about free trade agreements in a heavily textile-based district, and decided to take on a congressman heavily associated with that, and almost won in a 54% Bush district.  Two years later and there was much rejoicing on the liberal blogs when Kissell won a crushing 10 point victory in the rematch.

      Two years later and everyone pretty much shrugged when he managed to hang on in the 2010 wave.  Two years after that and the attitude seemed to be "good riddance" when the GOP gerrymandered him out.

      It's just odd how those things go.

  •  Sinema (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    I bet it's hard to maintain the lifestyle of a Prada Socialist on the salary of, say, a Green Party Spokeswoman.

    Funny stuff.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 04:39:21 PM PST

  •  FL-05 being sued in court (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    http://www.tampabay.com/...

    One of the plaintiffs also happens to be in the pending lawsuit against the entire congressional map.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 06:22:31 PM PST

  •  I'm writing a "future hypotical political history" (0+ / 0-)

    story (technically alternate history set in the future since my ideas probably won't come to pass), and I'd like some input on a couple of electoral ideas I have.

    1) If Hillary doesn't run, and instead say, Sherrod Brown ran and received the Democratic nomination, who would be his best VP choice, assuming he had a good chance of winning the general (with Cruz as the GOP nominee), and most of the usual Dem 2016 suspects were also running in the primaries (Cuomo, O'Malley, etc)?

    2) I'm looking for a few "up and coming" state legislators and mayors and such to put into Congress and have as potential statewide and presidential contenders a few chapters/years down the line. Any ideas for good "rising star" types?

    2b) I was thinking of Aravella Simotas as an interesting Senate, then president nominee down the line based on her background and Wiki page, but not being a New Yorker, I know very little about New York politics. Any info or suggestions on her would be appreciated. Other New York state legislators (or even Congresspeople) who could go far would be appreciated.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 06:22:58 PM PST

    •  I can answer the first one (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, Skaje

      Brown would need a coastal, pro-business New Dem.  

      Some options:
      --Andrew Cuomo
      --Mark Warner
      --Kirsten Gillibrand
      --Kay Hagan

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:34:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Could a pro-business big city mayor work? (0+ / 0-)

        Like Kasim Reed or Anthony Foxx?

        -Would the Democratic base be satisfied with a "two white guys" ticket after eight years of Obama?

        -Cuomo could be interesting, but assuming Hillary doesn't run, wouldn't he run for president himself? I don't see him as the kind of guy who wants to play second fiddle to anyone.

        -Warner might be good, and would probably have more room to pivot to the left while keeping his massive popularity in Virgina, at least. Still the "two white guys" problem seems to rear it's head. And doesn't he really want to be president himself?

        -Gilibrand is definitely an excellent VP choice, though perhaps the Hillary backers would prefer to back her for president...

        -Hagan would be good, but wouldn't a double swing-state senator ticket be somewhat dangeorus to a  Dem Senate majority?

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:51:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think so. (0+ / 0-)

          Brown is already somewhat lacking gravitas to be president; I don't think he can go for a mayor.  

          The Democratic base had better be; our bench is mostly white guys.

          Cuomo could be second fiddle with an eye on 2024; he's young enough.  I don't know Warner's age but it's possible he could as well.  I agree on the Senate majority; hadn't thought of that.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Fri Jan 17, 2014 at 12:01:33 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Brown seems to have a good level of gravitas (0+ / 0-)

            He's got lots of Congressional experience, and he's spoken on a lot of issues. Plus, he's got a good blue-collar image, which might help. If not Sherrod Brown though, is there any non-Hillary with gravitas (excepting the whole Cuomo-O'Malley-etc crowd)?

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Fri Jan 17, 2014 at 10:53:19 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Probably Hagan if she survives (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian

        as a woman in a swing state.  Cuomo is by far the worst as he adds nothing.  

        Racism, misogyny, and homophobia should NOT be protected by the Constitution.

        by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:05:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  West-Coaster would be nice. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian

        They always get short-shrift. Cantwell or Murray might work, they are somewhat pro-big business.

        http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

        by redrelic17 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 08:53:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think Cuomo would be a nightmare VP (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, redrelic17, JBraden

        Not a team player.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:36:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  For the up-and-comers: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, SaoMagnifico

      For Colorado, I like the idea of Governor Morgan Carroll.

      For Hawaii, how about Governor Tulsi Gabbard.

      As for Sherrod Brown's running mate, Gillibrand or Castro would be fantastic.

      •  Call me crazy... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian

        But I'd really like an O'Malley/Gabbard ticket.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:11:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wouldn't Gabbard need more experience? (0+ / 0-)

          Otherwise I agree, but a two-term Congresswoman from Hawaii doesn't seem to have enough experience in any situation to be considered a serious VP candidate.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 10:24:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I like your Gabbard and Carroll ideas (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        Though wouldn't Gabbard go for Senate rather than Governor? She seems to want to be president someday, and being Senator lets you travel the country more easily (without having to have an excuse) than a Governor could. Though I defer to your Hawaii knowledge, of course.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 10:25:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I just saw a swarm of Mormon missionaries, lol. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kurykh

      One of them is quite good-looking.

  •  Anti-gerrymandering measure - what points would (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KyleinWA

    you include?  It could be a constitutional amendment or a federal law.

    I'm thinking about this after reading this article over at Red State.  I disagree with many of their ideas about district drawing (such as districts should be exterior polygons) however I'm glad to see anti-gerrymandering sentiment is shared by some on the right.

    How would I ban gerrymandering?  I would probably go for a constitutional amendment.  I know many people here would disagree with me on this - but I don't think race or ethnicity should be considered in drawing districts.  I would only consider borders of counties and borders of other jurisdictions, like cities, towns, or neighborhoods, in certain areas.  I would like to consider compactness, too, although I don't know how you would codify that into law.  Just instituting those few points would significantly reduce partisan gerrymandering, although if you wanted to go further to ensure districts are drawn fairly you could create some kind of commission or something (although that should be addressed by federal law, not the constitution).

  •  Blue Dogs (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, Skaje, madmojo, JDJase

    I don't mind these folks joining the caucus, most of are going to be considerably to the left of the Blue dogs that that are leaving (Matheson and McIntyre). So the overall picture is that Blue Dog caucus moves more to the left.

    Heck we still have few Blue Dogs in Name only (any of the CA Dems in it) who honestly would be a better fit for the New Democrat Coalition instead

    Redistricting is an officeholder's nightmare because overnight it can change the makeup of his constituency sufficiently perhaps to cost him the next election." -Speaker Joseph Martin

    by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:30:15 PM PST

  •  OK-Sen (9+ / 0-)

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:42:31 PM PST

    •  Hope things turn out well for Coburn (7+ / 0-)

      and for a full recovery for him. My mother and aunt are both breast cancer survivors.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:47:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Very sad! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, Gygaxian

      Tom Coburn is my favorite US Senator! I hope he gets better!

      Age 26, conservative Republican, Washington State's Third District.

      by KyleinWA on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:06:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  In a strange way (6+ / 0-)

        he's also one of my favorite Republican Senators.  I'd probably rank him second after Murkowski.  Weird right?  He's ideologically very far from me, a true conservative's conservative, but I always felt like I could get along with him if I was in the Senate.  He struck me as an honorable man, one who wasn't afraid to upset his fellow Republican Senators if it meant doing something he felt to be right.  And not in the tea party way, but something I felt I could more respect, even as I disagreed with him.  He was often among the small group of No votes on bills that passed overwhelmingly.  Gotta say I'm not looking forward to his replacement.

        As for his health issues, I wish him a full recovery.  Cancer is the absolute worst.

        •  Coburn is definitely honorable (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jorge Harris

          In that "angry old man who despises liars" way. He's pretty cool for a Republican.

          And I kind of wish Murkowski switched to our side entirely, like a slightly more plausible version of the "Huntsman runs for Senate... As a Democrat!" scenario folks seem to like so much.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 11:45:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Should touch off a furious primary... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, James Allen

      As everybody and their mother competes to fill out the senator's term.

      I'd say the early frontrunner is probably T.W. Shannon, the young House speaker, but I think Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb is a realistic possibility, and I wouldn't rule out a promotion for any one of Oklahoma's five congressmen (although if there is any justice, it won't go to idiot Rep. Jim Bridenstine). I've also seen the name of Atty. Gen. Scott Pruitt mentioned as a likely candidate.

      It should be an entertaining free-for-all, if nothing else. Democrats have no chance, unfortunately.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:09:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Tom Cole and James Lankford may gun for it (0+ / 0-)

        and Shannon, being Cole's former staffer, may go for the House seat.

        http://www.rollcall.com/...

        23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

        by kurykh on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:19:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hmm, that would be interesting (0+ / 0-)

          I don't know if I see Rep. Cole as having much of a chance, though. He seems to have built up a reputation as a fauxderate, deeply establishment type, and Oklahoma is definitely a conservative enough state that Tea Party Republicans can win. (The fact a ton of voters are still registered Democrats doesn't help him, either.)

          I like the idea of former Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor contesting OK-01 if Rep. Bridenstine wins the Senate race (or embarrasses himself badly enough to be damaged in the process, which wouldn't surprise me overmuch).

          Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:23:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  The congressmen (0+ / 0-)

        Bridenstine and Mullin are too new, Lucas always struck me as a backbencher, and Cole is too high in House leadership.  Lankford is also pretty new, but a possibility I guess.

        •  Lucas is chairman of the Ag Committee (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42

          I'm not sure if he'll be termed out of that soon though. If not, I doubt he runs with all the farm bill drama still going on.

          Speaking of Lucas and the Ag Committee, my fiance interned for the Ag Committee Democrats a few years ago. She's didn't like Rep. Lucas but she never really had to work with him. I wish I could have done somehting like that but at least I got to go in to work with her once while I was visiting.

          23, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

          by JonathanMN on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 10:35:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Get well Senator (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Although he's ideologically whacko, he was a personal friend of our President. I hope he recovers fully and wish him well.

      Oklahoma requires an immediate special election, so no appointment I believe.

      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 09:53:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sad (0+ / 0-)

      We are very different politically, but, at least, he has some principles..

  •  CA AD-44: Irwin announces candidacy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen

    http://blogs.venturacountystar.com/...

    I missed this, but Thousand Oaks councilwoman Jacqui Irwin has announced her candidacy for the open, swingy AD-44 (52% Obama). What is odd about this is that she is running as a Democrat, but has consistently supported Republican candidates, like Tony Strickland and Elton Gallegly. She even supported Audra Strickland's disastrous carpetbagging run for board of supervisors against Linda Parks, a run which was nothing more than a political, retaliatory move on Strickland's part. Some of the Dem establishment seems to be getting behind her, but this seems like a stealth attempt at opportunism. It will be interesting to see how this plays out and if any other Democrat jumps in.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 07:58:54 PM PST

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