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In the first part of this series, http://www.dailykos.com/... I explored the causes of Democratic trends in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia, three of the four swing states that have clearly gotten bluer in the past decade (along with Nevada, which I decided was too geographically boring to examine).

Using maps like those posted below, I looked at the raw numerical shift, rather than percentage shift, towards the Democrats in each state.

 photo Colorado_zps5397685e.jpg
 photo NorthCarolina_zps9cbbe80f.jpg

 photo Virginia_zps92caf928.jpg

Colorado exhibited more of a uniform trend; other than a couple counties, the map looks more like a population map of the state than anything partisan.  Virginia's was pretty uniform except for the Western part of the state, while North Carolina's way heavily based on race (Virginia's was too to some extent).  Let's explore three more states, all wholly or partially Southern, to examine their trends from 2004 to 2012 and see which patterns they most resemble.

I'll begin with Florida, an interesting state because like Pennsylvania it is a swing state with sizable areas trending both directions, on the whole mostly balancing out to keep it a point or two off of the national median.

 photo florida_zps6023df0d.jpg

As you can see, Florida is a quiltlike patchwork of color, without a real discernible pattern.  Let’s break it down to see what we can find.

1)    The North is the South.  Northern Florida, essentially the part of the state Newt Gingrich won in 2012, has the same voting behavior as the South.  Four of the six population centers in the region swung leftward due to their Black populations (Pensacola, Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Tallahassee, with Ocala and Panama City the odd ones out), along with heavily Black Gadsden County.  The two surprises on the map were Jefferson County (east of Tallahassee) and Okaloosa County (containing Fort Walton Beach). Jefferson County is a purple to light blue county with a large Black population, but the Blue Dogs abandoning the party made it red on this map anyway.  Okaloosa County is heavily White and beach areas (usually older than the nation as a whole) mostly swung rightward over this period, so I’m not sure what’s going on there.  
2)    As always, county size doesn’t equal county population.  The pale colored counties around Tallahassee had the largest swings rightward in the state; they were the base of Blue Dog congressman Allen Boyd and many of them voted for Alex Sink for Governor in 2010.  But even with those large swings, they are very light on this map because of how few voters they have. They’re not really significant in 29 electoral vote Florida.  
3)    Seniors matter a lot in Florida, and we can see their impact.  The darkest red counties on this map are Palm Beach, Sumter, St. John’s, Volusia, Citrus, Martin, and Collier.  All have large and growing retiree populations, as many coastal Southern areas do.  Sumter is home to The Villages, a massive retirement community.  
4)    Big cities, as they are everywhere, are getting better for Democrats.  Dade County (Miami), Orange County (Orlando), Hillsborough County (Tampa), and Duval County (Jacksonville), all had large swings towards the Democrats, as did Broward County, which does not have one large city but has a large minority population.
5)    Dade County deserves its own paragraph here.  Home to America’s largest Cuban population, as well as a wealthy White population (many Cubans, of course, are White too) and an inner-city Black community common to essentially every large city outside the West, it has historically been purple but steadily gotten bluer as the Cubans have strayed from their Republican roots and newer immigrants from other parts of Latin America have entered the voting pool.  In 2004, George Bush won Florida by 381,000 votes, losing Dade by 49,000.  In 2012, Barack Obama won Florida by 74,000 votes, winning Dade by 208,000!  A majority of Florida’s shift in the past eight years comes solely from Dade County!  It’s really quite incredible.  Orange County accounts for 28% of the shift, and Hillsborough accounts for 22%, both large as well (shifts rightward are negative numbers, so the numbers add up to 100% but adding up counties in a certain way can get you above 100%).
6)    Mid-size areas without a lot of retirees swung leftward too, which is somewhat more surprising.  Osceola County (Kissimmee) has a huge Puerto Rican population, so that’s not surprising.  Pinellas County (St. Petersburg plus suburbs) has always been balanced, and their swing wasn’t all that huge.  Seminole County (Orlando suburbs) and Polk County (Lakeland) are more troublesome for Republicans, as neither have large Black populations and both are still red counties.  St Lucie County (Port St. Lucie/Ft. Pierce), Lee County (Cape Coral), and Brevard County (Merritt Island/Palm Bay) all pretty much swung as much as the nation, but the demographics there would, I presume, be better for Republicans than what they actually achieved.  A few other areas saw almost no change from 2004: Sarasota County, Manatee County, Pasco County, Clay County, and the interior South Florida rural areas all showed this (another reason South Florida is different than the South is its few rural areas didn’t get more Republican).
7)    Conclusions: Old people liked Republicans, non-Whites liked Democrats.  No shock here, but yet still a lot to discuss.  Now on to Georgia.

Georgia is an interesting state.  Like the rest of the Deep South, it was blue until the Civil Rights Act and then went red federally, staying blue statewide until the 1990s, when it turned purple and finally red.  It did give former Governor Jimmy Carter a massive home-state effect (he won every county!) in 1976 and still supported him in 1980.  In the last 20 years, it has grown tremendously, with Sun Belt suburban growth similar to Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, or Los Angeles but also a steadily-increasing Black population and the South’s largest Hispanic population, excluding Texas.

 photo Georgia_zps00c18b5e.jpg

Let’s examine the map.

1)    The three black counties (on the map, not demographically) in the state are the three with the biggest shift leftward, mostly due to increased Black population growth but also increased turnout.  DeKalb County is to Georgia what Dade is to Florida.  Fully 60% of the state’s shift comes from this county.  Kerry won it by 127,000; Obama won it by 274,000.  Fulton and Gwinnett Counties are less important but still very significant; both had between two and three times the Democratic growth one would expect, rather than DeKalb’s 7.5 times.  Add in the relatively small Rockdale County, and Georgia’s other 100+ counties actually were more Republican in 2012 than in 2004.  It’s only those four counties that made the state bluer.
2)    There is a huge divide between the inner suburbs and the outer ones.  The inner counties (Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton) had a 234,000 vote Democratic increase.  The inner ring suburban counties, with equal population, had a 127,000 vote Democratic increase.  The outer ring counties, with less population than either, had a 34,000 vote Republican increase.
3)    The Atlanta suburbs have a Northeast-Southwest divide.  This is hard to see on a normal election map, where most suburbs are red, but one can easily see it here.  Both sides are growing, but one is getting redder and one bluer.  Forsyth and Cherokee Counties had some of the biggest Republican gains in the country, increasing the GOP margin by 27,000 votes on their own.  
4)    North Georgia is unsurprisingly getting redder, uniformly with the exception of Dalton, a college town.  This isn’t too surprising, as it’s heavily White, similar to other parts of Appalachia.  But it’s easy to see here.  We saw this all over the country.
5)    South Georgia is a mixed bag.  There’s a clear correlation between heavily Black counties and Democratic gains; the blue counties are generally the better ones for Democrats, but there are many exceptions.  The population centers (Athens, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Albany, Savannah, Valdosta, Lagrange and Warner Robbins) all got bluer.
6)    Compare the southern border of Georgia with the northern border of Florida.  The counties are pretty demographically similar, yet there is far more blue on this map.  I’m unsure why; perhaps vigorous Democratic campaigning in 2000 and 2004 in Florida kept those Blue Dogs in the fold longer than their counterparts in Georgia, so there was more ability for votes to swing?  I’d love the answer to this question.

So there you have it, two more states.  Make sure to answer the poll.

Originally posted to jncca on Sat Jan 25, 2014 at 07:24 PM PST.

Also republished by Community Spotlight.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (39+ / 0-)

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Sat Jan 25, 2014 at 07:24:32 PM PST

  •  These maps help (5+ / 0-)

    break down where the hard work must be concentrated.
    In Georgia... I pretty well know the demographics there and the way the votes swing but I will say this Ga has a much better dem party than does Florida.  

    Citrus used to be more democratic but with the expansion of the Villages into three counties....a little more red.

    There is a lot of retired military folks here as well but the
    blue is getting more blue.

    Ga.   Big gap and the bible belt reaches deep in Ga.
    Florida... we have snowbirds to equal out some of the red.

    We the People have to make a difference and the Change.....Just do it ! Be part of helping us build a veteran community online. United Veterans of America

    by Vetwife on Sat Jan 25, 2014 at 07:58:36 PM PST

    •  I would think in Ga more so than Fl (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      trkingmomoe

      there would be registered Dems voting republican..dixie crat  Like Zell.

      We the People have to make a difference and the Change.....Just do it ! Be part of helping us build a veteran community online. United Veterans of America

      by Vetwife on Sat Jan 25, 2014 at 08:01:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It happens in Florida, too. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        trkingmomoe, Vetwife, waterstreet2013

        North Florida has many Democrats who vote Republican.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Sat Jan 25, 2014 at 08:09:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  But look at Orlando. Orange County. (0+ / 0-)

          And on down to Lakeland.

          That's a lot of people. As a guess the Disney employees and other minimum wagers are waking up to GOPer scams.

          That used to be a GOPer stronghold.

          "I hesitate to agree with Ted Nugent...."

          by waterstreet2013 on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 04:22:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Like most of the country, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            waterstreet2013

            Florida is experiencing growth in its Hispanic population.  That's the main driver of Democratic gains, along with increased Black loyalty that may or may not be solely due to Obama.  We shall see in 2016.

            As for the minimum wagers, I don't think poor Whites are moving our way, and poor Blacks already vote 95-5 for Democrats.  Once again, it's the Hispanic vote which is helping us in Florida, along with increased Democratic strength in the suburbs compared to a generation ago.  It's the same story all over the country.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 04:29:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Medicare Whites are starting to see (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TofG

              Republicans as enemies.

              Also, abortion has fallen out of the Top Ten for most of these women as they reached menopause.

              Very easy for these women to vote for Hillary.

              "I hesitate to agree with Ted Nugent...."

              by waterstreet2013 on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 05:37:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I see no evidence of that in polling (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Be Skeptical

                "Medicare Whites are starting to see Republicans as enemies"

                21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                by jncca on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 10:52:31 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  The numbers on Obamacare and which party (0+ / 0-)

                  is most trustworthy for health care -- go down to the details by age group and race.

                  That went wacky during the O-care rollout. But it's coming back to normal plus getting elder support. Treatment for chronic care has improved, plus reducing the "doughnut."

                  "I hesitate to agree with Ted Nugent...."

                  by waterstreet2013 on Mon Jan 27, 2014 at 09:11:18 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  I think that Flagler county might be on the (0+ / 0-)

              cusp of shifting purple or pale blue as Palm Coast grows and we get more boomer retirees moving down.

              •  Flagler County (0+ / 0-)

                shifted red last cycle.  And boomers are mildly conservative.

                21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                by jncca on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 10:51:52 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  There are old people in the panhandle (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        murrayewv, Vetwife, waterstreet2013

        that will die Democratic even though their last Democratic vote was for Carter (though maybe they voted for Clinton once)

      •  in georgia we dont register by party (4+ / 0-)

        We can vote in either party primary for this reason.

        So there are no "registered" Democrats or Rrepublicans.

      •  That used (0+ / 0-)

        to be true but any more I'm not so sure. I think most of the Dixiecrats have gone fully over to the GOP.

        It's the policy stupid

        by Ga6thDem on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 04:52:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Why do you think GA has a better Dem party than FL (0+ / 0-)

      Jeez, the number of party leaders and elected officials who have been indicted or gone to prison is ridiculous.  That's especially true in the "bluest" counties noted in the diary.

      I would love to see the Democrats in GA adopt a Zero Tolerance for corruption.  That would mean losing some solid backers, but it would be a winner overall.  The GOP in the state is pretty damn corrupt too. Running an authentic anti-corruption campaign could be very appealing to voters.  Maybe Jason Carter will really manage to do that.

  •  Georgia is interesting. (9+ / 0-)

    New forces in play: Obamacare, Tea Party overplaying its base, the Saxby Chambliss scandal.

    Look to North Dakota last time for parallels.

    All it takes is one solid counterattack issue to win anything.

    "I hesitate to agree with Ted Nugent...."

    by waterstreet2013 on Sat Jan 25, 2014 at 08:01:50 PM PST

    •  Hadn't heard a word about (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      the Saxby Chambliss scandal. What kind of malfeasance is it for Saxby?

      It's here they got the range/ and the machinery for change/ and it's here they got the spiritual thirst. --Leonard Cohen

      by karmsy on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 12:07:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I wonder how (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      waterstreet2013

      the whole pandering to the Tea Party is going to work out for the GOP here. I'm guessing it's probably not going to hurt the GOP too much statewide but might really start killing the party off in some of the suburbs.

      It's the policy stupid

      by Ga6thDem on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 04:55:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  We're seeing full-switch poaching. (0+ / 0-)

        Republican voter go all the way over to voting for Democrats.

        Abortion and Reagan have weakened as political assets. All the GOPers have that matters is race. Blacks aren't all that scarey.

        The older anti-abortion gals hit menopause. Reagan was a media-whore, a flat "F" as Commander in Chief.

        "You want some nxggxr fxck yer sister ???" -- that's been repeated a zillion times since the 1954 desegregation order. Well, it happened. Produced "Eisenhower II," a.k.a. Obama.

        The older GOP voters were Democrats as kids. Their grandparents were FDR and Truman Dems -- anti-Big Business all the way.

        Lay on emotions-based appeals and they go for attractive Dems, particularly if Dems run women or men with interesting voices.

        "I hesitate to agree with Ted Nugent...."

        by waterstreet2013 on Mon Jan 27, 2014 at 05:13:29 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Wow, this version really highlights (6+ / 0-)

    just how much Dem growth has gone on in Gwinnett County.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 25, 2014 at 08:12:04 PM PST

  •  Many of the high growth areas in the 80's and 90's (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    murrayewv, TofG, pademocrat, Dragon5616

    attracted Latino's to work in the construction industry in South Florida. Most of them stayed and their children who were born here are now coming on line to vote.  You will continue to see the blue trend in counties.  It will be interesting to see the state over all new voter registration this spring.  The trend has been a higher increase in Democrats then Republicans registering in the last 3 election cycles.

    Charley Crist has hired some of the Presidents top campaign  people for his governor's race against Scott.  That may mean another good ground game in the state.  We didn't have that in 2010.  
     

    •  I think Crist is the wrong candidate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dragon5616

      but if Messina can't help with turnout I doubt anyone can.

      The causes for the drop-off in non-presidential years are not well understood, but the drop itself is predictable as hell.  It varies little from cycle to cycle.

      •  At least in Florida, there's an obvious (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        waterstreet2013

        explanation for the drop-off in non-presidential years: the presidential race is national rather than state. They don't vote for state and local officials in presidential years, either, for the most part. Part of it is that people move to Florida and don't have much interest in state politics.

        "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

        by Alice in Florida on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 07:46:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  predictable? (0+ / 0-)

        Was drop-off in turnout in 2006, but we won a lot in 2006.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 01:08:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Dalton is a college town? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, Dragon5616, TheUnknown285

    I thought Dalton was an industrial (carpet manufacturing) town.

    •  Dalton (5+ / 0-)

      Shit, you're right.

      Dalton does have Dalton St (5K students), but the main Dem growth driver is the Hispanic population, which is nearly half the town.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 12:23:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  On GA - And Athens (3+ / 0-)

    I have a friend who lives in Athens (originally a Berkeley native like myself) and he mentions this is a very liberal part of Georgia.

  •  "Sumter is home to The Villages, a massive (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dragon5616, waterstreet2013

    retirement community" - and capital of Teabaggistan.

    As for Broward, Fort Lauderdale may not be much larger than the newer upstarts, but I think it is better known than any other city in the county.

    Gainesville is probably lefter than Ocala because of the University of Florida. Panama City is part of the "Redneck Riviera". Okaloosa might be blue because of Eglin Air Force Base and the adjacent urban areas.

    PS: what does the black color represent?

    warning: snark probably above

    by NE2 on Sat Jan 25, 2014 at 11:20:24 PM PST

  •  2004 in Florida isn't a great benchmark (6+ / 0-)

    There were hurricanes(which really distorted the race here - people really weren't as focused on it), and the GOP outworked us here.  In '04 there was quite a shift in the I-4 corridor from 2000 and the improvement in '08 and '12 is in part a result of the return to the 2000 pattern. The same is also true in Miami-Dade.  Gore carried it by 30K, so there was an 80k shift from 2000 to 2004 in Dade.  This makes the spike in 2008 and 2012 more understandable, though the generational issues around immigration are hard to over-estimate.

    A couple of comments:
    1. Pinellas to Daytona can be understood as one region.  There are significant similarities in the counties along the I-4 corridor - and any understanding of Florida really has to start here.  It was Michael Barone who argued in 2001 that the in-migration into the I-4 corridor was white and rural, and that this would offset the growth in the non-cuban hispanic population. He was right to some extent.  We saw interesting cracks, though, among the young in the suburbs all up and down the I-4 corridor in 2012 - which is why we were able to win it.
    2.  Pinellas isn't a small town - it is St Pete.  I would say it, Hillsborough and parts of Pasco make up Tampa.  In this sense your analysis on Tampa itself misses the mark.  
    3.  The blue dogs in the Panhandle are old - and haven't voted Democratic for decades.
    4.  One of the biggest changes I have seen since I moved here in the 90's is the senior vote.  The FDR generation is dying, and the Ike generation is much more to the right of the generation that preceded it.

    Good work.

  •  Palm Beach County isn't red. (3+ / 0-)

    Palm Beach County has 130,007 more registered Democrats than Republicans and in 2012 provided a 102,253 margin for Barack Obama. Broward gave Obama a 264,211 margin add the 208,000 margin from Miami-Dade the three county margin was 574,000+ margin for our President.
    This vote margin exceeds the Democrats entire statewide registration margin of 500,000.
    The three counties Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade together have a Democratic registration margin approaching 650,000 which dwarfs the statewide Dem registration advantage.
    Due to this major imbalance within Florida any Statewide office must play a strong GOTV game all over the state taking advantage of the advantages that exist.
    No Statewide election can be won by a Democrat if they do not plan for and execute a very strong GOTV program in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach County where the Dem registration advantage is 150,000 voters greater than all of Florida combined.

    "A functioning Democracy must defy economic interests of the elites on behalf of citizens" Christopher Hedges Econ 3.50&Soc. 5.79

    by wmc418 on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 05:09:32 AM PST

    •  I think the diarists's point (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, jncca, James Allen, slothlax, ramesh

      is that the trend is red in PBC, when comparing 2004 to 2012. Obama won PBC with 58% (102K vote margin) in 2012, while Kerry won PBC with 58% (116K vote margin) in 2004.

      •  Sorry (0+ / 0-)

        I meant to say that Kerry won PBC with 61% in 2004.

        •  Compare 2008 (0+ / 0-)

          In 2008 Barack Obama won Palm Beach County by 135,000+ votes.
          In 2012 there was an intense effort to dissuade the Jewish Voters from voting for Barack Obama and it worked to some extent.
          In 2012 the Democrats gave Obama a 102,000 vote cushion while providing Bill Nelson 134,000+ margin.
          Consider those turnout differences a very good approximation of the power of the "Obama isn't Israel's friend" campaign conducted in 2012.
          The trend in Palm Beach County is towards Non-Party Affiliation (NPA) which may overtake the Republican registration by this Summer. Palm Beach County's SOE shows total registration of 831,707 divided into 365,509 Democrats, 235,502 Republicans with 231,196 NPA's and other Parties.
          There is absolutely no Republican trend in Palm Beach County.
          How 2014 plays out in Palm Beach is dependent upon the resources applied within the county by Democrats seeking election,
          Many elected Democrats are in very safe districts that do not require sustained GOTV effort and as a result turnout is diminished unless there are strong campaigns from statewide candidates.
          The Democrats have numerous campaigns in other parts of Florida that require a great deal of money and energy and therefore the " honey hole" of Democrats (650,000 margin advantage) is not maximized.
          Unless and until the Statewide candidates recognize the landscape in South Florida the non-presidential year elections will have exaggerated drop-offs in turnout in the South Florida region.
          The Governor's campaign must have a very similar action agenda as both of Barack Obama's GOTV ground game to maximize the Dem advantage.
          There are approximately 170,000 more Democratic absentee ballot recipients headed towards these voters in 2014 that in 2010 which could tip the scales towards the Dem candidate.
          A concerted effort to add another 80,000 of these absentee ballot requests this year could go a long way to changing control of the Governor's Mansion.

          "A functioning Democracy must defy economic interests of the elites on behalf of citizens" Christopher Hedges Econ 3.50&Soc. 5.79

          by wmc418 on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 11:48:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  So any predictions/projections for 2016, 2020? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dragon5616

    Esp. Georgia and NC presidential and senatorial contests.

    Would a candidate like Perry or Paul help or hurt Republicans?

    •  I mean, I think Perry and Paul are both weak (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Be Skeptical

      candidates.  I can't see how they help Republicans anywhere.  In the Senate, North Carolina 2016 is very winnable if Burr retires, but I'm not confident in us winning a Senate seat in Georgia before 2020.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 11:23:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, slothlax

        it kind of depends on who the GOP nominates. If they continue down the road they are going they might have a problem. I know Broun is giving the Country Club Republicans a massive case of heartburn. I'm not sure they would vote for him. The tea idiots love the guy though but I'm not sure them alone are enough to pull him over the top.

        It's the policy stupid

        by Ga6thDem on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 05:03:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  You Dismiss Nevada - - (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cocinero, karmsy, pademocrat

    At your peril.

     photo Stone_Cabin_Valley_zps8533f46b.jpg

  •  A fair Atlanta metro: (0+ / 0-)

     photo fairAtlantametro_zps1eb44a4a.jpg

    CD-04: 51.5% VAP Black, 79.0% Obama 2008
    DeKalb County is only 82 people short of ideal congressional district pop.

    CD-05: 50.9% VAP Black, 76.4% Obama 2008

    CD-13: 58.2% VAP Black, 73.0% Obama 2008

    CD-07: 44.7% VAP White, 23.1% VAP Black, 19.0% VAP Hispanic, 11.4% VAP Asian, 47.1% Obama 2008 (probably 47.5-48% Obama 2012)

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 10:04:32 AM PST

  •  Wish there was a good article about (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, davybaby, Matt Z

    the boom in the African-American population in Henry, Newton, and Rockdale County.  In the latter two, the black population tripled by sheer numbers in the 00s.  In Henry County, it quadrupled.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 10:09:01 AM PST

  •  Thanks for all the work (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    waterstreet2013, bill warnick

    you've put into this.

    To get your intended series followed by as many people as possible, I'd add a few words of context or analysis to your discussion, e.g., "Red-to-Blue shifts are clearly more common in the South since 2008 than the were in the 20 years preceding..." (this is an example, only).

    It's here they got the range/ and the machinery for change/ and it's here they got the spiritual thirst. --Leonard Cohen

    by karmsy on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 12:05:52 PM PST

  •  Great series and very helpful ! NT (0+ / 0-)

    Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

    by CF of Aus on Sun Jan 26, 2014 at 03:33:07 PM PST

  •  Don't see why old people would vote Rethug (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, ramesh

    I'm going on 70, Caucasian, married, and so liberal I can hardly get to sleep at night for fear of missing something.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Mon Jan 27, 2014 at 04:06:56 AM PST

  •  We live on the southern border of Georgia, and (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    I can tell you that Tallahassee, Florida's capital, is right below us.  We travel there often to escape the, shall we say, "conservative vibe" here where we live.  Tallahassee is home to not only the capital, but also Florida State University, so those two factors contribute heavily to a bluer area there.

    We will most likely be moving to Tallahassee when my husband retires in a year or two, and look forward to leaving a hugely red county for a more compatible blue one.  

    I sure hope Charlie Crist is the governor when we get there.  I don't think I could live in a Rick Scott run state!

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