As we all know by now, the Democratic path to recapturing the House of Representatives is steep. According to Daily Kos Elections' House ratings for 2014, Democrats will have to take all Tossup seats, all seats that currently Lean Republican and at least five seats that are currently estimated as Likely Republican. This is far from an easy task and would require a Democratic wave scenario that could only have been possible if the poll numbers from just after the shutdown, before the Obamacare rollout started, had stayed as they were until the midterm elections. This will not happen, but we are allowed to dream, aren't we?
There are many reasons for why reinstalling Nancy Pelosi as Speaker is such a daunting task, including strong incumbents and geography, but most importantly, many states have been subjected to Republican legislatures making gerrymandering into an art. One of the most egregious examples are, of course, Pennsylvania. Do you see the tail stretching up from the Pittsburgh-based 14th absorbing Democrats from the now-fallen Democratic Congressmen Altmire and Critz in the 12th? The raised arm of Cruella de Vil taking in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre in the 17th? The whale-formed 16th, designed to combine Republican Lancaster County with enough Democratic turf in the Philadelphia suburbs to shore up the 7th, which in itself is a spectacular Rorschach Blot from the deepest pits of Rep. Pat Meehan's navel? Those are all the work of crafty, competent and aggressive Republican map-makers wanting to ensure a Republican delegation staying in place and keeping John Boehner as third in the line of succession to the Presidency. Today, only 5 of the 18 PA Representatives are Democrats, in a state that the Democrats haven't lost since Mike Dukakis went up against George H. W. Bush in 1988. And there is little reason to believe that these numbers will change until the next redistricting is to take place in 2020.
However, there is a way out of this nightmarish map, but it requires an environment for 2014 that is better than expected for the Democrats. The Republican majorities in the legislature are surprisingly slim, at 26-23 in the State Senate and 110-92 in the State House of Representatives with one vacancy in each chamber. If the best-case scenario happens, the Democrats could regain the trifecta and enact a mid-decade redistricting.
When it comes to redistricting, there are two conflicting progressive ideals that we have to take into account: electing more and better Democrats and preserving communities of interest in fair and balanced districts. Usually, the former goal wins out, especially among politicians (just look at the Illinois map!).
My goal was to make a map of Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts that would be gerrymandered for the Democrats, but still aesthetically and principially being improvements over the current maps. It would be safe for all incumbents (Brady, Fattah, Doyle and Cartwright), and not break any Pennsylvanian parochial rules (Keep Bucks whole, separate Lancaster and York).
As with all maps, the result can always be improved upon, but my goal was a map that a hypothetical Democratic trifecta could implement in real life - and the maps that we get in real life are seldom as perfect as those that the Internet artists make. If you want to see my humble proposition, please follow me beyond the squiggle...
Note: I use OpenOffice instead of Microsoft Excel, and therefore I can't get the tables to work properly.
1st District (Blue)
Incumbent(s): None
Counties Wholly Contained: None
Counties Partially Contained: Philadelphia, Delaware, Chester
Obama/McCain '08: 71.8%/27.4%
Bob Brady doesn't actually live here, which might be a no-no for him, but it could be solved by some precinct-swapping with the 6th District in Delaware County, making the 6th a bit less Democratic (but that should be enough - more on that later). He loses most of his territory in Delaware and the eastern parts of his old district, instead gaining some more Republican areas in Delaware and Chester, almost picking up Pat Meehan in the process and making it 6 points less Democratic than Brady's current district. That shouldn't matter at all, Brady keeps most of his old district and would be safe until he wants to go.
Safe D
2nd District (Green)
Incumbent(s): Chaka Fattah (D)
Counties Wholly Contained: None
Counties Partially Contained: Philadelphia
Obama/McCain '08: 90.4%/9.2%
Fattah's district looks about the same as his old one did, but now doesn't go outside Philadelphia County. It's slightly less black, not even a percentage point less Democratic, and will elect Fattah indefinitely.
Safe D
3rd District (Purple)
Incumbent(s): None
Counties Wholly Contained: Erie, Crawford, Warren
Counties Partially Contained: McKean, Mercer, Lawrence, Beaver
Obama/McCain '08: 53.2%/45.4%
Mike Kelly doesn't live in the district anymore as Butler County and other Republican territories are left to the vote sinks, the 3rd instead stretching along the border like a right angle to grab New Castle among other places. The district was probably won by Romney in 2012, but if I had more time some precincts could probably be swapped to gain a percentage point or so. Kelly does technically have the safe Republican 5th for himself, but Glenn Thompson would likely run there and would make it an epic primary battle between both of them. The 3rd, meanwhile, gets about 7 percentage points more Democratic in 2008 numbers, and Kelly would likely be a top DCCC target. He has a tough choice to make. Former Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper would be a strong choice for the Democrats here.
Lean R with Kelly, Tossup without
4th District (Skin-colored)
Incumbent(s): Scott Perry (R)
Counties Wholly Contained: York, Adams
Counties Partially Contained: Cumberland
Obama/McCain '08: 41.9%/57.0%
York and Adams are kept from the old incarnation of the 4th, but the Harrisburg parts are switched out for western Cumberland County, making it a Republican vote sink. Scott Perry would, of course, cruise.
Safe R
5th District (Yellow)
Incumbent(s): Mike Kelly (R)
Counties Wholly Contained: Butler, Armstrong, Venango, Clarion, Forest, Jefferson, Elk, Cameron, Clearfield, Potter
Counties Partially Contained: Mercer, Lawrence, McKean, Indiana
Obama/McCain '08: 38.8%/59.8%
State College is lost to another Republican district, making the 5th a mashup of the old 5th's western 2/3rds, Mike Kelly's base and Indiana County from the old 9th. At the surface, it looks like Glenn Thompson's district, but the single biggest centre of population in the new 5th is Kelly's home county, Butler, while Thompson's, Centre, is lost. Kelly would still be a slight underdog based on geography, but the territory is more even than the Howbrad Shberman fight of 2012.
Safe R
6th District (Orange)
Incumbent(s): Bob Brady (D), Jim Gerlach (R), Pat Meehan (R)
Counties Wholly Contained: None
Counties Partially Contained: Montgomery, Chester, Delaware
Obama/McCain '08: 61.3%/37.9%
Jim Gerlach is retiring, as we all know, but even he would have a hard time in this heavily Democratic district. Without his personal strength, it is almost certainly lost unless the Democrats go off the rails. Brady would of course not run here and Meehan is better off in the 7th, so it would be open for whoever replaces Gerlach. If it is a Republican, they will probably not be as strong and should be turfed easily in 2016. Could probably be made a little less safe to strengthen the 7th's numbers and get Bob Brady's house in the 1st.
Lean D with Meehan, Safe D without
7th District (Grey)
Incumbent(s): Joe Pitts (R)
Counties Wholly Contained: None
Counties Partially Contained: Chester, Delaware, Lancaster
Obama/McCain '08: 57.0%/42.2%
Pitts has the 16th to himself and wouldn't run here. Could leave some Lancaster territory to for example the 6th, but would split another country unnecessarily. Sestak is going after Toomey, and Meehan is fairly strong, but he's not Gerlach. Could be tweaked easily to become stronger.
Tossup
8th District (Pink)
Incumbent(s): Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
Counties Wholly Contained: Bucks
Counties Partially Contained: Philadelphia
Obama/McCain '08: 57.3%/41.7%
There's only one way to gerrymander the 8th while keeping Bucks County whole, and that is using the safest Democratic precincts in Philadelphia. You still won't get above 58% Obama, and Fitzpatrick is strong, but the Democrats would have a great pickup opportunity without him.
Lean R with Fitzpatrick, Tossup without
9th District (Orange-Red)
Incumbent(s): Glenn Thompson (R), Bill Shuster (R)
Counties Wholly Contained: Somerset, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, Blair, Huntingdon, Centre, Clinton
Counties Partially Contained: Cambria, Westmoreland
Obama/McCain '08: 40.3%/58.5%
Thompson is drawn into the 9th but has clearly less territory here than Shuster, who keeps Altoona among other places. Republican vote sink. A more aggressive gerrymander would use State College, but I intentionally didn't.
Safe R
10th District (Light Purple)
Incumbent(s): Tom Marino (R)
Counties Wholly Contained: Mifflin, Juniata, Perry, Snyder, Union, Montour, Columbia, Lycoming, Sullivan, Wyoming, Tioga, Bradford, Susquehanna
Counties Partially Contained: Luzerne, Northumberland
Obama/McCain '08: 39.4%/59.2%
Nothing to see here, really. Another Republican vote sink. Could switch some territory with the 17th to gain Barletta's home.
Safe R
11th District (Light Green)
Incumbent(s): None
Counties Wholly Contained: Dauphin, Schuylkill, Carbon
Counties Partially Contained: Cumberland, Lebanon, Northumberland, Monroe
Obama/McCain '08: 49.4%/49.3%
Tim Holden's old 11th is practically revived and made into an Obama-Romney district, one that voted for Obama by just 478 votes. Holden could probably win this one back if he wanted to, otherwise it would probably lean Republican.
Likely D with Holden, Lean R without
12th District (Pale Aqua)
Incumbent(s): None
Counties Wholly Contained: None
Counties Partially Contained: Greene, Fayette, Washington, Allegheny, Westmoreland, Indiana, Cambria
Obama/McCain '08: 54.6%/44.2%
Like Mark Critz's old 12th District, this incarnation is quite gerrymandered, taking in Obama-voting precincts in the Southwest, peeking into Pittsburgh and rounding off in Critz's home in Cambria County. Critz is running for LG but this district probably voted for Obama in 2012 and should elect a Democrat anyways. Could be made stronger with more of Pittsburgh, but Critz might lose the primary to a city Democrat if Pittsburgh becomes too much of the Democratic primary electorate.
Likely D
13th District (Cyan)
Incumbent(s): Allyson Schwartz (D)
Counties Wholly Contained: None
Counties Partially Contained: Montgomery, Philadelphia, Berks
Obama/McCain '08: 57.8%/41.3%
The 13th gains some of Berks County and loses heavily Democratic southwestern Montgomery, making the district around 7% less Democratic but still pretty much safe for Schwartz's successor.
Safe D
14th District (Brown)
Incumbent(s): Mike Doyle (D)
Counties Wholly Contained: None
Counties Partially Contained: Allegheny
Obama/McCain '08: 61.2%/37.8%
A very safe Pittsburgh district that could probably be used to shore up the 12th even more. Doyle will be re-elected.
Safe D
15th District (Red)
Incumbent(s): Charlie Dent (R)
Counties Wholly Contained: None
Counties Partially Contained: Berks, Lehigh, Northampton
Obama/McCain '08: 60.0%/38.7%
Charlie Dent is strong, but would be very much in danger in this Democratic district that includes Reading and sheds the more Republican parts of Northampton and Lehigh counties. Reading would also be new territory for Dent. I would be amazed if Dent doesn't retire if this district becomes reality.
Likely D with Dent, Safe D without
16th District (Teal)
Incumbent(s): None
Counties Wholly Contained: None
Counties Partially Contained: Lancaster, Lebanon, Berks, Lehigh, Northampton
Obama/McCain '08: 42.5%/56.4%
This district forms a barrier between SEPA and the rest of Pennsylvania, taking in most of Lancaster County. non-Reading Berks County and the leftovers from Dent's old district. A Republican vote sink where Joe Pitts will probably be the nominee.
Safe R
17th District (Royal Blue)
Incumbent(s): Matt Cartwright (D), Lou Barletta (R)
Counties Wholly Contained: Wayne, Pike, Lackawanna
Counties Partially Contained: Luzerne, Monroe
Obama/McCain '08: 57.0%/42.0%
Cartwright's new 17th District is about as Democratic as his old one, and while Barlett lives here he only carries rural Luzerne with him which is no match for Cartwright's Scranton and Wilkes-Barre home turf. Could be made slightly more Republican by giving Barletta away to fight against Tom Marino in the 10th, but it probably doesn't matter much.
Safe D
18th District (Forest Green)
Incumbent(s): Tim Murphy (R)
Counties Wholly Contained: None
Counties Partially Contained: Greene, Fayette, Washington, Allegheny, Westmoreland, Beaver
Obama/McCain '08: 41.8%/57.2%
A vote sink in Southwestern Pennsylvania, taking in Republican suburbs and some Demosaur territory that voted against Obama. Jason Altmire lives here but Murphy's known in most of the district and he would probably stay away.
Lean R with Altmire, Safe R without
The best case scenario, a 9-3-6:
7 Safe D
2 Likely D
3 Tossups
1 Lean R
5 Safe R
The worst case scenario, a 8-1-9:
5 Safe D
2 Likely D
1 Lean D
1 Tossup
3 Lean R
6 Safe R
The most probable scenario, a 9-1-8:
6 Safe D
2 Likely D
1 Lean D
1 Tossup
2 Lean R
6 Safe R
A 13-5 map could easily be drawn, especially if you'd break the unwritten rules. Stephen Wolf has excellently done so here. And if you care about these, but don't mind monsterous districts, there are better gerrymanders made by ProudNewEnglander here. Look through Daily Kos for even more maps, fair and gerrymandered to insanity.
But gerrymanders are never perfect, but aways flawed, sometimes even dummymanders. Can the Democrats waste the 3rd, the 7th, even the 12th? Yes. Can Tim Holden choose to not run, letting a great candidate enter Congress for the Republicans in the 11th? Yep. But it's a decent map that doesn't look insane and doesn't make any Democrats or parochial interests upset, which was the intended goal.