Just not for Michael Grimm.
His election to the NY-11 congressional seat in 2012 was the result of some serious fairy godmother action in itself. The state's districts were redrawn after the 2010 census (New York lost two congressional seats) and the newly-minted 11th was drawn mostly (90%) from the previous 13th, where Grimm had served a term as congressman already. His quasi-incumbency, his backstory (former Marine, former FBI) and enthusiastic endorsement from former mayor Giuliani gave Grimm a decided edge.
Still, that backstory was already beginning to fray. The 2011 New Yorker piece detailing the bizarre episode in 1999 when Grimm used his FBI authority to terrorize the ex of his date in a Queens nightclub had already shaken confidence in his judgment. Then allegations of campaign finance irregularities started rolling in, along with stories of his business partners stealing clients' money.
The baggage piled up and almost sunk Grimm in 2012, with his Democratic challenger taking 43% of the new district's vote, a district, don't forget, that was 9/10 his old incumbency stomping ground.
This year, with his spectacular ("throw you off this fucking balcony") introduction to a national audience, campaign finance questions metastasizing, a Democratic mayor in Gracie Mansion and a suddenly scandal-averse Rudy Giuliani, Grimm's prospects are looking decidedly more, well, grim.
Best of all, he's already facing a strong Democratic contender in Brooklyn councilman Domenic Recchia, whose tenure on the council has marked him as deeply community-centric without being overly liberal (he voted against overriding Bloomberg's vetoes of a police inspector general and the bill allowing suing police for profiling), a quality that could serve him well in the politically diverse 11th. Roll Call marked the race as one of 5 to watch in the Mid-Atlantic, with Rothenberg pegging it "Lean Republican."
That lean, however, was noted last July. I wonder how Stu feels about Mr. Grimm's chances now.
All in all, with a major fundraiser being scooped up by the FBI, another in dutch with Immigration and one hella hello to the national media, Michael Grimm is hardly the comfortable incumbent today he was even two weeks ago, making his seat a tasty pickup possibility, one of many we'll need to fight for if we hope to take the House and actually get something done for the American people.