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Comment Preferences

  •  Christie's downfall makes me so happy (16+ / 0-)

    Not for the people of my state, who will undoubtedly be dragged through the mud over this for the next few months/years, but that Christie's political collapse appears imminent. He was by far the biggest threat to whoever the Democratic nominee is in 2016, and now he might not even survive his term. Now, my only hope is that his "I am not a bully" quote becomes as infamous as "I am not a crook", because if he isn't a bully, then Richard Nixon is in fact not a crook and Bill Clinton did not have sexual relations with that woman.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 05:25:25 PM PST

  •  Wendy Davis vs Allison Lundergan Grimes... (7+ / 0-)

    Who will be this cycle's Elizabeth Warren - become a national figure as a candidate and fundraise like crazy nationally.  

    Looks like Davis is in the early lead for that mantle.  

    Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 05:33:05 PM PST

    •  ALG has a better shot than Davis (11+ / 0-)

      I just don't see a path of victory for Davis when was the last time a Democrat won Texas statewide like the 1990s? I would love to see Texas turn blue but she's just not the candidate to do it we need someone like Mark Warner there who can win over conservative white voters and a more favorable year and environment. I've been impressed a lot by ALG though her fundraising, speeches, etc. she's a really strong recruit in a state where Democrats have a really strong bench and people elected statewide.

      •  I wouldn't underestimate Wendy Davis (6+ / 0-)

        For starters, she's got 150,000+ Twitter followers (more than four times Alison Grimes' followers) and is generating loads of fundraising right now, even in January 2014.  The Congressional races I'm finding out are also being impacted by the Wendy Davis candidacy, including TX-27 (Wesley Reed challenging Rep. Farenthold), TX-31 (Louie Minor generating a buzz in his race vs. Rep. Carter) and TX-19 (Neal Marchbanks challenging Rep. Neugebauer).

        Also, in 2010, Democratic Candidate Bill White got 42% of the votes in his challenge to Governor Perry but he made no news outside of Texas as for starters, 2010 was a bad year for Democrats.  If White got 42% of the votes, how is it that I hear from a number of folks Davis can't get anymore than 42% of the votes?  Makes no sense to me since Davis is generating a lot of attention in Texas, more so than White did in 2010.

        On the other hand, I'm being cautious here as I would LIKE to see Wendy Davis winning Governor of Texas but it remains to be seen in the course of the next several months or so what will happen.  For starters, Davis being very successful at fundraising in part thanks to Republican candidate Greg Abbott being a terrible candidate.  Worse case scenario:  A Wendy Davis loss generates more voter registration and activism for the Democratic Party base that will enable them to be more likely to win in the future.

        Still, we're not dealing with a state like Idaho here.  There are lots of Democrats in Texas.

        •  Not (12+ / 0-)

          to burst your bubble, but if Twitter followers, Facebook likes and Youtube comments meant anything, we'd be in President Ron Paul's second term right about now.

          It's great that Wendy Davis has ginned up so much enthusiasm from the base and for now its translating into fundraising success, but there is no way Davis or any Texas Democrat can get to 50%+1 for the immediate future.

          Perhaps in eight years when demographics have moved our way someone like Davis could be elected, but right now that's not possible. Also in 2008 even with the vaunted Obama machine blowing off doors turnout wise everywhere and anger towards G.W Bush at an all time high, he still lost the state by double digits

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 06:57:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You're overanalyzing my argument (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Possible Liberal

            You can't make the argument in saying there's no way Wendy Davis can't have the chance when you have not stated any information that you can point out that contradicts what I'm saying.  Do YOU have ANY information about the situation on the ground on the campaigns in Texas that contradicts my argument?  

            And it's as if no matter what has happened in the past or will happen in the coming months, it's almost as if a cloud hangs over Wendy Davis and all the Democrats that prevents them from doing anything fundamentally important such as....  wait....  GOTV and campaigning.  And I'm assuming the activism in the State Capitol when Wendy Davis stood hours to make that filibuster didn't generate any attention and those people who stood at the State Capitol were all just a bunch of DNC, DCCC folks or just simply college students.

            First of all, you need to know a little thing about social media marketing in the context of Twitter followers:  If someone has 150,000 Likes on a page, imagine if a campaign were to spread word of mouth when the Davis for Governor campaign issues an tweet telling folks that follow the campaign to donate $5.00.  Well, that one tweet, if 100,000 followers donated $5.00 equals $500,000 and it can be generated within a day or few days whereas e-mail messages don't always guarantee a massive amount of donations within a week.

            Look at it this way:  Twitter is a real-time social media platform whereas e-mail isn't.  Assuming 150,000 followers are engaged and dedicated, it would be a lot easier to generate donations quickly this way.  I can't verify that Wendy Davis is generating loads of campaign contributions via Twitter but it's possible that the campaign is generating many donations this way.  I do know that I'm receiving e-mails literally every week indicating the campaign has generated six figure $ amounts in a relatively short time on a more frequent basis than most campaigns in the past.

            It's still January 2014 and if you say there's no way Wendy Davis can win, well, polls are consistently showing she's below single digits and yes, Texas is a big state.  I'm not suggesting that Davis WILL win.  That I didn't make in my argument.

            •  I'm not sure what polls you are looking at (12+ / 0-)

              PPP's last poll had Abbott up by 15 points.

              •  Last poll but not ALL polls (0+ / 0-)

                And when was that poll taken?  Um, last November, right?  Well, that was not long after Wendy Davis announced her candidacy.  

                If you believe that by citing a single PPP poll (which seems to be referred to as the god of all polling here) justifies as contradicting what I say to be consistency in single digits, then certainly you need to work on your math a bit there, unless there are polls I'm missing besides one of the first ones out there which pointed out the following from Washington Post:

                http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

                There is a lot of room for movement in an early read of the race for Texas governor. Half of voters in the state haven’t fully considered who they would support, but among those who do know, Attorney General Greg Abbott (R) leads state Sen. Wendy Davis (D) by eight percentage points.

                Abbott leads Davis 29 percent to 21 percent in the survey conducted for Texas Lyceum, a nonpartisan, nonprofit group. Fifty percent of voters said they "don't know" who they will support.

                Forget who is ahead for a moment and focus on something known as "information" about the undecided.  Those numbers are likely to change in the coming months either in the direction for Wendy Davis or Greg Abbott.

                But feel free to point out a list of polls and I will retract my original statement.  Sometimes I say things off the cuff but most part, I'm information-minded.

                But if you can submit me any other information other than inside-the-beltway B.S., by all means, go right ahead (and this goes for any of you other 11 folks that liked the comment).

                I'll tell you this, my group on Twitter has a number of folks in the State Texas Democratic Party who are following us and every time you guys are skeptical of Wendy Davis's chances, well, we go right ahead and make a tweet on Twitter indicating the following:

                •  29-21 is a crap poll. (7+ / 0-)

                  Any poll with both candidates in the 30s should probably be ignored.  That just shows who each side's diehard supporters are.

                  PPP is not the "God" of polling, but unlike Texas Lyceum, they have a track record of accuracy.

                  21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                  by jncca on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:54:40 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Distinction (5+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Skaje, wwmiv, Berliozian, Bharat

                  This is DKE, which is hosted on Daily Kos but is not Daily Kos.  Our interest here is honest elections analysis, and many of us never venture outside this sub-site.  While the vast majority of us personally support electing more and better Dems and would love to see Wendy Davis win, any discussion here is naturally not going to be as optimistic as postings outside the sub-site, because while I am very glad that Wendy Davis is fundraising well and that there's lots of ground game, no one doing an honest analysis of this race is going to conclude anything other than that any Dem running statewide in Texas is going to face an uphill battle regardless of how well-funded and well-organized they are.  

                •  "inside-the-beltway B.S." (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Skaje, wwmiv, Bharat, lordpet8

                  You are not going to do well here if that's the attitude you have about DKE regulars.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 08:38:29 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  I'm sorry. 150,000 Followers, not Likes (0+ / 0-)

            Referring to Twitter, not Facebook.

            •  None of that is worth anything (9+ / 0-)

              Social media numbers are completely worthless and meaningless as a measure of potential strength with voters.  There is zero connection.  And attention from outside Texas is useless in Texas.

              She appears to be raising enough money to do about as well as a Democrat can do.  That's her one positive so far.  That she represents a swing state Senate district also proves her chops at appealing outside the Democratic base, but her district is sharply to the left of the state.

              But her issues with her biography are a ding she can't afford, and that needs to go away.  There's nothing helpful about it in the motivation of the left, because there's no "left" in Texas that is helpful toward getting more than 40ish% of the vote.  It's basically become a partisan dividing line, and she can't maximize performance with partisan dividing lines, she has to pick off some center-right swing voters who are indifferent toward Republicans' attack on her biography.  So that matter is a distraction she can't afford.

              Her celebrity, too, is on an issue that doesn't help her, abortion rights.  That's just not a statewide winner in Texas, even though she's right on the merits.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:18:19 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Do you even know social media strategy? (0+ / 0-)

                First off, I make no guarantee that Twitter followers is necessarily a determinant of what outcome will be achieved.  Is it a fact that Wendy Davis is raising $ via Twitter?  I can't verify that but I can tell you, for someone who has 150,000 followers, it's possible for doing something know as... ready for it....  tweets, mentions and DMs to followers.  Heard of those?  Yes, I've done it through my Knowledge Democrats group on Twitter and we're gaining followers as a result (1,400+).  In fact, a number of campaign operatives in the Democratic Party in Texas are following us.

                All you're talking about is inside-the-beltway B.S. that really adds no value to the conversation.  Sure, Wendy Davis is a celebrity.  We know that.  But what about the qualitative information.  You take the time to write a comment as a means of a discussion and all I get out is just the same would-be rhetorical nonsense I could just pull out of a Dino Democrat's mouth.

                If Wendy Davis is not a statewide winner, how come then  are there over 10 grassroots groups focusing on fundraising and GOTV outreach?  Yes, Battleground Texas and many other groups that exist not just on Twitter but in actual real life.  No such operations existed when Bill White ran for Governor of Texas and he got 42% of the votes in a year not too great for Democrats.

        •  She's the worst possible fit (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Not independents, and not even genuinely socially moderate or liberal. Most are Pro-Life for instance.

          What they are however is socially indifferent - they resent the fact that the Texas School Board is filled with lunatics who waste all their time arguing over whether to teach evolution or not instead of discussing real issue, and will vote in primaries for "moderates" who favor getting back to heir jobs. In very rare cases they will vote for Democrats in the general against such Republicans, but their complaint is not social conservatism per se, but an obsession with esoteric and irrelevant social issues.

          Davis is the worst possible Democrat to run, infinitely worse than White because rather than being a non-ideological technocrat, or a Hispanic moderate, she is associated with social issues, specifically abortion. Rightly or wrongly all voters hear about regarding her, and all they have heard during her introductory tour is related. This may be unfair - certainly she had a political profile a year ago that let her win reelection in a Romney district - but after a year's introduction to the Texas electorate she appears to be a purely one-trick pony.

          In effect Davis is the liberal version of the sort of crazies who on the Republican side might make them consider voting for a moderate Democrat. As such she has no attraction to such voters as she has all the negative qualities and none of the positive qualities of her opponents(and Abbott is rightly or wrongly not viewed as a social issue nut).

          In order to win, Democrats need a Cueller v. Stockman or Gallego v. Poe race in a good environment.

          •  Sorry - my first sentence was deleted (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I meant to say that swing voters in Texas are generally social neutralists - they turn on Republicans who talk social issues not because they disagree with them or are socially liberal, but because they are tired of people who seem obsessed with them and find it disturbing.

            Davis is a really bad pick to appeal to those neutralists because she promises to make the entire campaign about social issues to their horror.

    •  I would hope it's ALG (13+ / 0-)

      Because (sorry Wendy Davis fans) she actually has a chance of winning and her winning KY-Sen would have a much bigger impact on national politics than Davis winning TX-Gov would, given that it would likely guarantee that Senate Dems retain the majority through 2018 (given how favorable the 2016 Senate map looks) while winning TX-Gov would really just be a feel-good thing.

      Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

      by interstate73 on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 05:48:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Texas won't turn blue over night (5+ / 0-)

      But Davis will help us even if she ends up losing because she will lay the groundwork set up campaign offices, register voters, etc. It'll be a gradual process CA was red not too long ago but look where it is now it just takes time.

      •  California (0+ / 0-)

        was already changing with Clinton's '92 win and prop 187 in '94 sealed the deal, making California a permanent blue state. The GOP in that state has cease to exist, let alone function with the exception in a handful of areas. It's just a shame that we've had stupid initiatives pass like that independent redistricting commission and that craptacular jungle primary system. Imagine if Dems in Cali had full control of redistricting. That would be like 5-10 more Dems in the CA delegation. And even more seats in the lege.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 06:58:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The cracks were showing in 1988 (5+ / 0-)

          when Bush I barely won the state.

          You can thank Maldonado for most of those initiatives. That was what the Dems traded for his budget vote.

          I actually like the independent redistricting commission, it finally got us to 2/3rds control of the legislature. I'm still not moved on Dems getting their own act together. Without the new maps the Dems would have probably again traded GOP votes for yet another incumbent protection map. Heck we still have at least 4 potential seats that the Dem can gain with current maps.

          If GOP registration continues to fall as we move through the decade we should have little to worry about during the next round of redistricting in 2022.

          “The Republican party can’t be the party that thinks one of the biggest problems is that there’s too much love in the world.” - Alex Castellanos

          by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 07:57:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  California Democrats (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, gabjoh, wadingo

          controlled everything in 2002 and decided to make a craptastic incumbent protection map and play buddy buddy with Democrats.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 08:25:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Republicans I mean (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, MichaelNY, gabjoh, wadingo

            The independent map is a pretty good map. For the most part I like how communities are grouped and like the way it shifted things. A net pick up of 5 seats was about right. A new seat in Riverside, a more Democratic seat around Palm Springs, McNerney shored up a bit, Gallegy's seat splitting coastal areas with Capps, north San Diego in one district, contracting the 3rd entirely into Sacramento county. All of these moves enabled pick ups without threatening too many traditional community groupings or putting too many Democratic into marginal seats.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 08:28:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  that was because the dems had picked up a number (0+ / 0-)

              of seats in the 90s that they had a precarious hold on such as the Capps and Schiff districts

              •  No it's because Dems wanted to protect their ass (5+ / 0-)

                It's one of the great fantasies in politics to imagine CA Dems wouldn't have acted in 2011 like they acted previously.

                The 2002 map was an idiotmander, not just because it foolishly made Dem seats 60%+ rather than 55%+, but because it did nothing to even attempt to make competitive Riverside and competitive northeast CA seats out of a sea of red, where there were zero blue seats to put at risk.  There can be no excuse for that.

                As for the LOL that 10% wins are "precarious", that just sums up the absurdity of the whole notion that Dems would have been more aggressive than the commission was.  Not one chance in 100.

                All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                by tommypaine on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 12:42:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  It was business as usual (4+ / 0-)

            A horse that had to be traded, since there was a 2/3 vote requirement for budgets. California Democrats should thank their lucky stars that Props 11 and 20 passed, the same thing probably would have happened in 2012 without the CCRC.

            25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

            by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 03:55:59 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I completely disagree with all of this (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wadingo, Skaje, CF of Aus

              There is almost no chance they would have drawn incumbent protection in 2011 without the need for Republicans to pass a budget.

              Keep in mind that in 2001/2002 they were coming off wins in several marginal seats, the state was much friendlier to Republicans, and most importantly they needed Republicans to pass a budget. Gray Davis was not popular then and pretty much the only reason he won in 2002 was because Dems ratfucked the primary to get the less electable more conservative candidate as their opponent and even then Davis only won by 5%. Had Republicans balked at passing a tolerable budget or pushed through draconian cuts after Dems went for the jugular it could have made Davis unpopular enough to lose outright in 2002. I'm not saying Dems made the right decision then, just that the reasons for their doing so were radically different than the situation in 2011.

              Without independent redistricting, CA Dems would have had zero reason not to decimate the state Republican delegation both federally and at the legislative level. In Congress almost every single one of our seats was beyond safe while there were more than just a handful of targets they could have readily flipped Dem. Instead of a 38-15 map you could pretty easily get around 43 or maybe even 45 Dems elected in 2012. Then at the state legislative level with term limits in effect there just isn't enough incumbency pressure like Berman/Sherman to avoid drawing something that locks in 2/3rds.

              Don't get me wrong, I think California's commission is the model for the nation, but it's terrible when only blue states are implementing it and I think it's very misguided to think that Democrats in this day and age wouldn't have drawn a gerrymander more effective than that map. National Democrats would have put tremendous pressure on the state to nix incumbent protection if they had even considered that bullshit.

              •  If Dems tried decimating the GOP with maps (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, lordpet8, MichaelNY

                The Republicans would put all those maps up for referendum, which would mean an expensive battle by all parties and a distraction from Props 30 and 32. Whether the referenda will pass or fail is not the issue.

                CA Dems are wary of repeating what happened to the first Burtonmander in 1982. They had to pass new, less ambitious maps during a lame-duck session and then-Gov. Jerry Brown signed it moments before he left office.

                23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

                by kurykh on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 03:11:53 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Your one point completely undermines (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, lordpet8

                you "disagreeing" with me.

                There is almost no chance they would have drawn incumbent protection in 2011 without the need for Republicans to pass a budget.
                My argument was if the Democrats hadn't secured a 2/3 majority in 2010 and still needed Republican votes for a budget.

                25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

                by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 04:01:37 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  But the voters got rid of that requirement (0+ / 0-)

                  In 2010 and 2/3rds would only be required for tax increases. With Jerry Brown putting that up to a vote in 2012 that threshold is not nearly as important.

                  Also to reply to kurykh and others more broadly, my whole point was that even if Dems didn't aggressively gerrymander for fear of ballot initiatives, why in the fuck would they have drawn anything worse than the actual map? I just find the argument that prop 20 helped Ds to be ridiculous when there is literally no good reason why they'd have drawn something less D friendly than the commission map ended up being. Arkansas was the only state in the country to do that sort of nonsense.

                  •  Well yes and no (0+ / 0-)

                    I believe there are other things the GOP can do with 1/3rds control (otherwise they wouldn't be so gung-ho about winning a seat or two in the senate this year). I believe the GOPers can do some sort of filibuster or slow down nominees in the state senate when they control at-least 1/3rd of the seats.

                    So I still think that I could still see the dems trading votes for the maps.

                    I dunno there's just this belief that Berman would once again be pulling the strings. So I wouldn't be surprised if he saved GOPers like, Dreier, Lewis, Gallegly.

                    I do get that D's benefited greatly due to the prior GOP incumbent protection maps, and the fact that CA has moved in more into the D-column. I just dunno if there is anyone today that could have filled Burton's shoes today.

                    Burton's map wasn't perfect either it had a fatal flaw. While it initially netted Dems 6 seats, it failed to protect Jerry M. Patterson who lost to Bob Dornan in 1984.

                    “The Republican party can’t be the party that thinks one of the biggest problems is that there’s too much love in the world.” - Alex Castellanos

                    by lordpet8 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 05:58:53 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  The GOP would never let the Dems get away (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, ehstronghold, lordpet8

                    with drawing Dem supermajority maps, which is what the current maps are. Again, the maps would go to the ballot, and what would a "don't let Dems raise your taxes" message do to Prop 30 on the ballot? Remember, having Prop 30 pass was considered a miracle, and its 55-45 spread even more so.

                    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

                    by kurykh on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:05:56 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  By 2001 redistricting (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, lordpet8

            Dems had made big gains in CA from the '96-'00 elections, so they probably thought that they could dummymander if they tried to go for broke.  So instead they gave themselves the 53rd district and drew everyone else safer to defend their gains with an iron grasp.  Also, it would make the budget easier to pass.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:48:33 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Technically we didn't give ourselves the 53rd (5+ / 0-)

              district.  The brand new district in 2002 was Devin Nunes's seat.  But we also drew Steve Horn out of his L.A. County seat and flipped it to Safe Dem (the only incumbent screwed over, due to the growing Hispanic population in LA County).

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 04:14:39 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Trende has debunked the 187 argument (0+ / 0-)

          and why are you against nonpartisan redistricting? For one thing, I think it didn't go far enough as it was too subjective/didn't have teeth.

          Also, gerrymandering is for hack pols.

          •  Actually (5+ / 0-)

            Trende is wrong. More sophisticated peer reviewed published articles by top scholars in this area have found the total opposite on 187.

            24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:35:08 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Hispanic voter participation jumped after 187 passed.

              “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:41:14 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  well its sort of a dead-cat argument (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8

              hispanics were notorious for not voting so ANY improvement could make it look like a gain. During the 90s, Lucille Allard's district (I think) always had the lowest number of voters of any district and while it increased as the decade wore on, it wasn't hard to do when only one tenth of the population was voting

              It may not have had to do with people being repelled by 187 as much as it had to do with the people who were minors at the start of the 90s, becoming eligible to vote and  many of the older citizens given citizenship allowing them to vote.

              California was never a bright red state but what I think started the leftward shift was a lot of GOP leaning demographics were leaving the state.

              Look at Howard McKeon's district - it was pretty ultraconservative territory having gone 67% for Bush in 1988 (and that's when it contained some of the SFV). By 2000 it was down to about 51% Bush. His district in the early 90s contained a lot of republican demographics (white, middle class, probably religious, military heavy district). Part of his district was represented by that Pete Knight nutjob in the legislature. As the 90s wore on, those types of people were leaving the district (and possibly the state) as defense cuts kicked in.

              •  Well, it did awaken the Latino vote (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wadingo

                and that's what the point about Prop 187.  For instance, only 4 years later, California elected Cruz Bustamante for LG, the first Latino elected statewide in California in 120 years.  I would bet that at the state legislative level as well, more and more Latinos were being elected concurrent to this.

                “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 12:25:41 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  the hispanic vote matters obviously but its the (0+ / 0-)

                  white vote that is critical. A lot of the D trend in CA was probably due to a change in the white vote (itself a possible result of conservative whites being taken out of the voting pool).

                  Depending what metric you want to use, Obama may have received as high as 55% of the white vote in 08 and probably narrowly won or narrowly lost it in 2012. If whites voted like they did in AZ, it would probably be closer to an even PVI.

                  •  True (0+ / 0-)

                    but I thought the whole thing with Prop 187's impact was about how it energized and polarized the Latino vote against the Republicans in California.

                    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                    by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 02:21:44 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  I'm not against non-partisan redistricting (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, MichaelNY, wadingo

            I'm only against it in deep-blue states. Why the hell should we disarm ourselves in states where we control all the levers.

            And I'm not wrong on prop 187.  It's the reason why CA Hispanic participation went through the ceiling and made CA a permanent blue state. As Hispanics saw that initiative as an attack on them.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:54:04 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  it sets the precedent (0+ / 0-)

              if blue states do it, then red states may eventually do (and possibly on court order).

              •  When Texas decides to do it (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                gabjoh, MichaelNY

                then maybe I'll be for states like California and New York to do. But it's very unlikely that will happen. You're very naive to think red states will play nice. Even if a IRC was passed in red states, Ill never be for it in deep blue states.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 12:14:06 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  lets be clear CA was a deep blue state (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              that still gerrymandered or protected GOP congresscritters. I still doubt the democrats would have done a burtonmander in 2012/

              Non-partisan redistricting finally eliminated much of those useless R-gerrymanders. So it was definitely worth it.

              “The Republican party can’t be the party that thinks one of the biggest problems is that there’s too much love in the world.” - Alex Castellanos

              by lordpet8 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 05:03:10 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  well Davis seems to be the type to get all the (5+ / 0-)

      media attention but Grimes seems to be the one who actually has the chance to win.

      If Grimes loses by a narrow margin, she could always give it a go against Rand Paul. Many senators have won on their second try.

      •  Rand likely would be more vulnerable (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, gabjoh, wadingo

        He's got a lot more general election warts than McConnell, and likely would be distracted by a Presidential run that is more likely to hurt than help if-and-when he drops down to reelection.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:59:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Davis' personal problems seem to be worse (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Berliozian

      And it is a LOT harder for Democrats to win in Texas than in Kentucky. I suspect that Grimes will have better odds. Davis I see as more Meg Whitman than Elizabeth Warren, in terms of outcome.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:14:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If It's Anyone It's ALG.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      .....these two races will only be talked about for as long as the polls stay close.  If either McConnell or Abbott break away with double-digit leads, the media will quickly quit paying attention.  ALG continues to hang in there for the moment but I doubt a single poll will show Wendy Davis within 10 points of Abbott, which will limit her campaign's narrative.

      •  I think Davis can get within 10 (0+ / 0-)

        Perry beat Bill White by 13 in the 2010 red wave. I don't think it's much of a stretch to think Davis could beat that. I don't see her getting within 5, though.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 01:40:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I disagree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          Perry was weaker than Abbott, and White was stronger than Abbott.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 04:22:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Christie's downfall clears way for Walker (8+ / 0-)

    It's looking more and more likely Scott Walker will win re-election in 2014 and run for President in 2016. I always thought Walker was gonna run and likely win the nomination even pre-Bridgegate but now it's even easier for him with Christie damaged. Walker doesn't piss off Tea Parties like Christie did and he's liked by both factions of the party establishment/TP so he could unite the party. By 2016 he would have won comfortably in a blue state three times and will have the argument of electability. In the general I think Walker would be a difficult candidate to beat Wisconsin is running a big surplus and unemployment is low so he definitely run on his record voters may be looking for a "Washington outsider" in 2016 I definitely think Walker is a stronger candidate than Christie ever was. Not to mention the Koch's love Walker and will throw a ton of money his way like they did in the recall both in the primary and GE.

    •  I'm still more worried about Jeb Bush. (5+ / 0-)

      But I think Walker would beat him in the GOP Primary, but Jeb would be more formidable in a general.

      Walker/Rubio or Bush/Portman would be my two ticket predictions.  The former is a tea party wet dream, the latter is a "serious GOP" taking back control while offering a Florida/Ohio ticket.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 05:56:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Jeb is tainted his last name will drag him down (7+ / 0-)

        I don't see him as a viable candidate at all, in a Clinton/Bush race all Hillary would have to do is put a question in voters mind's and ask them if they wanted another Clinton or Bush in the WH. And I'm pretty whoever the GOP nominee is will pick a women VP to counteract Hillary I'm thinking Martinez/Ayotte/Rodgers are the likeliest candidates either way Bush should be easy to defeat if were the nominee Walker is an unknown to most voters without a toxic last name.

        •  I would agree with an edit to your subject line... (4+ / 0-)

          I would say "Jeb is talented his last name will drag him down."  "Talented" instead of "tainted."  He's tainted, too, but his strength that would keep him competitive is that he really is politically talented.  He has all the qualities a Republican needs, and his family name is the one big black mark.

          I'm increasingly confident if Jeb runs, he eventually becomes the GOP frontrunner and does in fact end up the nominee.  And I'm equally confident he loses in November.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:02:16 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Jeb is doing very poorly (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LinSea, PassionateJus

        in national polling. He's not a big threat.

        •  Really? (6+ / 0-)

          In the WaPo poll earlier this week he was the only candidate to keep H. Clinton in single digits, and she was only up 6 (closest other candidate was down 11.) I'm not sure that exactly qualifies as "good", but its certainly better than the other potential Republican candidates.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 07:51:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Polling isn't important at this stage. (3+ / 0-)

          It's organization and money.  You start getting those and the polling can (though not necessarily will) come around.

          The issue with Jeb right now is how much he really wants it since he hasn't been hitting the pre-2016 circuit like others such as Christie, Rand, and Cruz have.

          It's still early and 2014 is more about supporting the right Republicans and hoping they cross the finish line so they will in turn help you with their own organizations.

          But the day after the November 2014 election the 2016 Presidential cycle starts at full blast.  I think Jeb can be formidable given the the political and fundraising operation he can put together simply on the remnants of his brother's and father's presidential campaigns.

          The only question I have is how much he wants it.  So far he does not seem to have the same hunger that other potential candidates have.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:46:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Jeb's mommy has also said several times (5+ / 0-)

            that he shouldn't run. I think that's interesting.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:54:12 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's because of the emotional toll on the family (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              She had to endure her husband on the national campaign trail 4 times in a row starting in '80, then a break once, then twice more in a row with her one son.  She doesn't want to endure it again through her other son.

              I really think for her this is all about the toll on her family.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:46:34 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Not sure where you're getting the employment info, (11+ / 0-)

      but WI has done very poorly with job creation.

      I'd love to run against Walker. She who shall go unnamed would easily wrest Florida from him, and since Ohio is more industrial and unionized than Wisconsin, likely Ohio too.

      I'd welcome that match-up.

    •  Walker doesn't enjoy (10+ / 0-)

      the broad kind of appeal many other potential presidential nominees do.  He's like by just about 50% of Wisconsin and disliked by the other 50%.  It's not even a guarantee he would carry his home state in a general election.

      He's only polling a few points ahead this November.  He might actually lose.

      •  He gains nothing from people of color (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, itskevin, tk421, wadingo, Berliozian

        He loses nonwhites by about the same 80-20 as McCain and Romney.  He has zero ability to change that.  His coalition in Wisconsin always has been the GOP base plus white swing voters.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:04:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think he would run as a supporter (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          of the Senate immigration bill.  He's from the business wing of the GOP, and he's sounded open to it before.  That doesn't help with Black voters (then again, which Republican does?), but it helps with Hispanics.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 04:25:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's not enough (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Berliozian

            It's somewhat mitigating, but it ultimately doesn't help turn votes.  Immigration is not so singularly important, there are too many other problems with Walker that make building trust prohibitive.  A conservative and/or Republican can't get Hispanic votes, or people of color more broadly, without having built a longstanding foundation of trust, because he gets much less benefit of doubt up front than any Democrat.  Walker doesn't have that and won't do anything to build it, given the primary campaign needs crowding that out.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:50:06 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think he can get to McCain numbers. (0+ / 0-)

              Not Bush 04 numbers.

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:57:23 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  McCain numbers are MoE difference from Romney (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                The difference was pretty small, with the unique problems exit polls routinely have a MoE difference isn't really very trustworthy as being a difference at all.

                And McCain numbers are fatal anyway.  The electorate will be less white in 2016 than it was in 2008.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 07:36:38 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Walker is a pr--k (0+ / 0-)

              but that's a dangerous line of thinking that all hispanics think the same way.

              •  Um no, my "line of thinking" is based in reality (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, tothestation

                It's very clear about 70% think close enough to the same way to vote for the same party's Presidential nominee.  Absent a return to Bush's "compassionate conservatism" that embraced federal power to advance what frankly are Democratic priorities like health care (Medicare Part D) and education (NCLB), that won't change.

                Yes Hispanics by and large share the same politics within the context of our two ideologically-based parties.  It's not dangerous.  You'd best look more closely the politics of communities of color before claiming to know better.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 07:32:36 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Am I the only one that confuses the names of (0+ / 0-)

      Scott Walker and Rick Scott?  I often have to resort to teh goggelie thingum to get them, uh, straight. Yeah, I guess it's past time to open the wine now...

      Dance lightly upon the Earth, Sing her songs with wild abandon, Smile upon all forms of Life ...and be well.

      by LinSea on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 06:55:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Walker (4+ / 0-)

      seems like little better than generic R to me. I strongly suspect that once the press starts looking into

      It is pretty impressive how much more terrible the GOP candidate fields are getting. In 2008, there were several electable Repub candidates running. In 2012, there was exactly one. In 2016, it might well be a contest between Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal and Scott Walker, all of whom would have major liabilities at the ballot box. Hell, Rubio might get another look just on the competition alone.

    •  Forget it. Walker is another Christie in waiting (6+ / 0-)

      Way too many skeletons in his closet (John Doe anyone?) that a national campaign would just burst out.

      Plus, he's utterly charisma-free (there's a reason Charles Pierce dubbed him "the goggle-eyed homonculous") and dumb as a brick. As the "Koch phone call" showed, he's very easy to trick.

      And there's no guarantee he's going to get reelected and even if he does, he won't get the type of landslide reelection that Christie so lusted after and got (but at what a cost). He's too polarizing.

      •  We keep hearing this about Walker, but nothing (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        has brought him down. When will it happen?

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 11:11:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Walker & charisma (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm no fan of the guy, but when I tuned in to his State Of The State last week (for the few seconds I could handle), I did some away with one strong impression:  he's gotten a lot better at public speaking.  I could actually envision him giving an acceptance speech at a GOP convention and coming across pretty well to a broader audience at home.  I still think his policies are ultimately too conservative for the country as a whole, he'd be an underdog to Clinton if she's the nominee, and I have to imagine his background could sink him at some point (even with the latest John Doe investigation running into obstacles in January).  Still no one should underestimate him:  he's run one of the more effective political PR operations in this state in recent years, which is surely a big part of the reason that the 46% base he has is mega-loyal to him, and why there exists a group called "Walker-Obama voters" that gets him over 50%, and probably will again this November.

    •  Walker still has to win re-election (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      and has an investigation of his own to deal with.

      Bush would be the big beneficiary.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 11:26:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Walker is a huge winner here (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bjssp, wadingo, jncca

      Walker was the one that stood the most to gain from Christie fanning out.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:15:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Indeed, and as I keep saying, without Walker (0+ / 0-)

        I don't think they have anyone. His biggest problem, which is the same as anyone else's problem, is the lack of foreign policy experience, but that might not be much of a problem at all. He's much more conservative than Christie and has that whole Midwestern nice, as opposed to Jersey asshole, vibe going for him. Now that Christie looks to be highly damaged, at best, we can set out sights on Walker so they are left flailing.

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 11:16:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He went from 3% to 5% (0+ / 0-)

        He went from totally irrelevant to unimportant.

        Walker is nothing at this point.  He can only rise to the level of relevant if he gets the Ryan/Bush/Christie/Rubio part of the spectrum to himself or with only one other person.  That might happen but it's not because he brings anything to the table.  Rather, the others will decide they don't want to lose the general, and will leave open the opportunity for him to lose.

        All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

        by tommypaine on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 12:47:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Lately there have been a ton of articles about (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Possible Liberal, Skaje, MichaelNY

      how John Kasich is the dark horse that could save the party, and they always talk about how primary voters will discover his resume and his swing state status as something big and will nominate him.

      Kasich has no national profile and no charisma though, and I'm guessing he'll get about as close to the presidency as Bill Richardson did -- another 2 term swing state governor with an amazing resume but no national base and no charisma.

      28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 12:07:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Richardson has charisma in spades (0+ / 0-)

        he was from a state with 5 EV's, no regional influence and no money, though.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:42:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Walker=Pawlenty 2.0..... (0+ / 0-)

      It's gonna be hard for him to find a foothold because of his blandness.  He'll be the best-looking candidate on paper that right-wing primary voters will shrug off amidst more colorful competition.  If Jeb Bush gets in, the Republican establishment will consolidate around his blandness over Walker's I suspect.

      •  You overlook one key aspect of Walker: (0+ / 0-)

        they know he can be bought pretty easily. Plus, Romney wasn't an exciting candidate, yet he managed to get the nomination.

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 12:18:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Romney Had The Benefit of Establishment Consensus. (0+ / 0-)

          ....in a historically weak field.  I suppose now that Christie is damaged and if Jeb Bush doesn't get in the race, Walker could have a similar consolidation of the establishment and their vast financial resources, but that seems unlikely to me in an open race like 2016.

          •  Walker will also get that. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, sacman701

            I think people under estimate just how appealing he might be. I mean, he tried to bust the unions and actually succeeded. When they tried to recall him, he prevailed. He's enacted a bunch of right wing policies and would like to enact more. He did all of this while not being some sort of Allen West-like nutcase but a relatively unassuming, calm white guy--in a blue state.

            Remember how he took that phone call from the Koch brothers, or what he assumed to be those guys? You could hardly ask for a better sign of obedience, and they get that.

            He's everything they want in a candidate, so the fact that he's not some vivacious speaker probably won't be an issue.  

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 08:51:34 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I should add that this is why Walker (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Avedee

              should be defeated perhaps more than anyone. Without him, they have Bush and then...no one, basically. Again, they'd be flailing about. It'd be a big problem for them.

              You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

              by bjssp on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 08:37:59 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  WMUR/UNH poll New Hampshire (24+ / 0-)

    Shaheen leads Scott Brown 47-37 and Bob Smith 47-36. Her favorability has slipped but remains +16: http://www.wmur.com/...

  •  Michael Grimm NY CD-11 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LinSea, MichaelNY, wadingo

    Threatening to throw a Reporter over the railing in the Capital earns him the distinction of being the same kind of bully as Chris Christie, who he continues to support.

    Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011) Voting is a louder voice than a bullhorn but sometimes you need that bullhorn to retain your vote.

    by Rosalie907 on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 05:54:57 PM PST

  •  RIP Pete Seeger (9+ / 0-)

    While lots of people know vaguely who Pete was, most don't realize the commercial popularity of some of his songs, despite being blacklisted from television for 15 years.

    Goodnight Irene - #1 for 13 weeks in 1950
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    On Top of Old Smoky - #2 in 1951
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Wimoweh - first charting version #14 in 1952
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Kisses Sweeter Than Wine - Jimmie Rodgers version #3
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Little Boxes - Seeger has first charting version 1963
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Where Have All the Flowers Gone - multiple artists
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    If I Had  Hammer - #10 for Peter, Paul and Mary in 1962, #3 for Trini Lopez in 1963

    Turn Turn Turn - #1 for the Byrds
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Waist Deep in the Big Muddy - song censored by CBS when performed for Smothers Brothers Show, because it refers to Lyndon Johnson as "the big fool says to push on"
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    We Shall Overcome - Seeger one of four copyright holders for writing parts of it
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

    by tommypaine on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 06:13:56 PM PST

  •  NJ-SEN: Should we be worried about Menendez? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LinSea, MichaelNY, Taget

    It looks like he's in trouble and although I'm not the biggest fan the last thing we want is him being forced out of the Senate and Christie picking a replacement NJ could be stuck with a Republican Senator until 2018. Christie could call for a special election but I think that was only to bolster his re-election chances when he did that with Booker's seat. Otherwise I wouldn't mind seeing Menendez go in 2018 he's hardly a progressive anyway.

    •  By law he'd have to call a special election. (7+ / 0-)

      If Menendez has to resign soon, the special would be in November 2014, if stuck around until 2015, I still believe the special would be in Nov 2015.  

      I don't believe there is any way Christie could name his replacement until the seat was up it's regular cycle in 2018.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 06:35:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  New Jersey vacancy law (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LinSea, MichaelNY, gabjoh, Taget, wadingo
      The governor makes an appointment to fill a U.S. Senate vacancy, and the appointee serves until the next regularly-scheduled, statewide general election.  The person elected at that next regularly-held general election serves for the remainder of the unexpired term, if any.  If the term was set to expire at that general election, the person elected serves a full six-year term.

      If the vacancy occurs 30 days before the regular primary, the election is held in the following November; if the vacancy occurs within the specified period preceding the regular primary, the vacancy election is held at the second November election after the vacancy occurs.

      Paraphrased from this source.

      If Menendez did resign, the GOP would just get a placeholder like Chiesa again (hell Christie might actually appoint Chiesa again).  Would be best if it didn't come to that, and I seriously doubt it will.  It takes a lot to force a Senator out of office.

    •  2 senate elections and a governor's election (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, itskevin, wadingo

      in November?  Whoo-hoo!  I say bring it on.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 11:36:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nah, this one is gonna drag (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        the Christie one, on the other hand, keeps compounding on itself.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 11:47:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Trouble always finds him... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades, wadingo

      ...and he always gets through it.  He's faced worse and been exonerated before. On the other hand who knows if this time will be different?

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:04:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NE-02 Festersen apology (11+ / 0-)

    I received an unsolicited check with a full refund of my contribution today.  I have to apologize for any remarks I have made here about said contribution.  The refund was delayed in the mail (postmarked Jan 9th), probably because his office had my old address.  

    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

    by benamery21 on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 06:22:58 PM PST

    •  This is the guy who said he was gonna (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, wadingo

      run for Congress (in the Omaha district, I think?) and then changed his mind after a few weeks.

      Just a refresher for anyone reading this; had to go back a bit to remind myself what it was.

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:17:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  NE-02 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MichaelNY, Avedee

        is the Congressional district (Omaha core) that Obama took in 2008.  Festersen was in the race for a little less than 2 months.

        The Republican incumbent (Lee Terry) is fairly weak (only won by 2 points in 2012), and made a pretty big gaffe during the shutdown:

        "Earlier this month when asked by the Omaha World-Herald if he would continue collecting his paychecks during the Washington stalemate Terry said, “Dang straight.”

        “I’ve got a nice house and a kid in college, and I’ll tell you we cannot handle it,” elaborated Terry. “Giving our paycheck away when you still worked and earned it? That’s just not going to fly.”'

        http://watchdog.org/...

        Festersen (who leads the City Council) was convinced (arm-twisting) to run after initially (August) publicly declining, by polls showing he had a 10 point lead over Terry when the gaffe was mentioned during the poll.  He dropped out when the ACA website problem brought his numbers crashing back to earth.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:31:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  New Virginia population estimates (6+ / 0-)

    were released this week.  Good news for Dems as far as it goes politically, as most of the population gaining jurisdictions are the blue, or at least purple ones.  Population losing areas are most often red.

    http://www.coopercenter.org/...

    38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 06:28:37 PM PST

  •  NY State Senate - Two races to watch. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, LinSea, MichaelNY, Audrid, gabjoh

    1) The IDC was rumored to be targetting Democrat Toby Stavisky.  Basically a back bencher who took the seat in part because her son is part of a lobbying/campaign consulting colossus that has a big influence in Queens and makes anyone interested in good government squirm.

    http://politicker.com/...

    Here 2010/2012 opponent, John Messer, is going to make a third try at her.

    http://politicker.com/...

    He was kinda but not really supported by the IDC before (they toyed with but never actually formally backed any of the various Democatic Party primary opponents of different NYC State Senators).  Is he the IDC's guy?

    If not and if they are able to recruit a strong asian candidate he may actually help the IDC's chances.

    The IDC would however be better off doing what they did last time.  Ignore uphill challenges against incumbents and gamble on the open seats.

    2) If you do not remember Malcolm Smith is the former IDC caucus member and the former boss of IDC leader Jeff Klein.  Jeff Klein used to be Deputy Majority Leader to the Senate Democrats back when Malcolm Smith was Majority Leader.

    Fast foward to last year and Malcolm Smith is implicated in a plot to bribe New York City Republican leaders including Councilman Dan Holloran so he can for Mayor as a Republican.  Earning him the boot from the IDC and the scorn of pretty much everyone.  The latest?  He's requesting that his corruption trial be postponed until after the Democratic Party primary.  Why?  Because "voters would be better served" that way.

    http://polhudson.lohudblogs.com/...

    You can accuse Malcolm Smith of many things.  Lack of chutzpah is not one of them.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 06:32:41 PM PST

  •  Michigan Senate Race (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LinSea, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    I just got on, but I'm hearing that Terri Lynn Land, who is running as the presumptive Republican nominee for open Senate seat in Michigan, has quit her RNC post abruptly and offerend no explanation.  I wonder if this is a scandal in the making, or if she just wasn't able to be reached for comment?  That seat should be like personal insurance for her, so I can't think of any sensible reason for her to give it up while running and then to do it on a Friday evening.

    •  Probably to do with the outside group spending... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that her campaign is being accused of working with - which is illegal.  I wonder of her gig at the RNC saw her in contact with third party groups to work on other campaigns, and she had them also working with hers or something.  

      Just a wild guess on my part though.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 07:24:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Possible Liberal

      I mean, my guess was this has something to do with the formal complaint filed against her, yesterday, or coordinating with super PACs and other outside groups.

      It seems the more I've read on this, tonight, she did finally release a statement which amounted to her wanting to spend more time with her Senate campaign. lol

    •  Likely just to focus on campaigning (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      And not have to abide by two sets of rules. Believe it or not, it is quite difficult to run a large scale campaign and not run afoul of some rule.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:18:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Maine Senate and Governor's races (5+ / 0-)

    Michaud will not be a shoe in, but he has a good shot at victory.  Of course, LePage had routinely reinforced for Maine voters that limiting him to one term is important.  

    The Senate race is frankly the longest of long shots, but Ms. Bellows is running a campaign about issues that need to be raised.  These are the kinds of points that need to be made and made again in order to bring change.  Maybe not this election cycle, but I remain hopeful that she will be a force in Maine politics and her ideas will prevail.  

    •  If the seat opened up (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145, ProudNewEnglander

      Bellows would have no chance, as formidable Democratic candidates like Pingree, who aren't willing to waste their time and money on a sure loss to Collins. So while I salute her for taking one for the team, I don't see how she could become a big force in Maine politics this way.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 10:19:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It is not understandable to see this seat (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      salmo

      not strongly challenged.

      And more when the majority in the senate is in play.

      •  There's noone to challenge it strongly (5+ / 0-)

        We need Collins to retire to have a shot.

        24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 12:37:49 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think not the same (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          salmo

          For this seat it was necessary to work the same strategy than for MA-Sen in 2012.

          Do you remember the first polling numbers of E Warren in 2011?

          •  Not entirely comparable (7+ / 0-)

            Maine, while usually blue, is less so than Massachusetts; Brown wasn't as well established as Collins is; and Elizabeth Warren had some decent name rec and enthusiasm among Democrats and liberals nationally, even before she proved herself a strong campaigner.  And it still took months of persuasion and draft efforts to get her to run; for a while it looked as if we'd be stuck with second-tier (to be generous) candidates that might well have lost to Brown.

            38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 07:29:38 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  There are differences but (0+ / 0-)

              not only favourables to Collins.

              In the negative side for Collins we have the very low appeal that she has between most of the Republicans nationwide. Her lower hability to raise money. Her bigger weakness to attacks by her right. Her higher weakness to outside attacks.

              Also in Maine there are Democrats bitter known than E Warren. And with the fundraising level of some other Democratic challengers that are running this cycle a Democratic candidate would be outraising Collins. No-one of her previous challengers outraised her but it is possible to do it.

              •  Why do you think it's possible to outraise her? (0+ / 0-)

                And just how weak is her fundraising? How much money does she have on hand?

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 08:53:05 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  the time goes against it but (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  but she is not a strong fundraiser. A decent number of Republican and Democratic candidates that are not incumbents have reised more than her.

                  S Collins is not loved in the Republican side, she is not close to the national Republican money. I think a Democratic candidate with strong national support would be able to outraise her.

                  In order to make the race really competitive it would be necessary to invest in the race over $10M. In this level S Collins would be very uncomfortable in the money front.

                  •  The thing is (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, Possible Liberal

                    It's impossible for national Democratic organizations to fork over $10,000,000 to someone they know won't win.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:18:36 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Collins raised $8M in 2008 (5+ / 0-)

                    I don't think it's that she can't fundraise, it's more that she just doesn't need to. A lot of incumbents who face easy re-election, and have enough CoH seem to ignore fundraising. Jeff Sessions for example, in the 3Q last year raised only $28,000.

                    I think Collins knows she's pretty safe. In 2008, she had a credible challenge from a U.S Representative, who raised $6M as someone mentioned, in a D-Wave, with presidential turnout year, and she still won 61-39, running 20 points ahead of McCain.

                    I don't think $10M would be enough to make the race close, even with the right candidate. But if Collins feels threatened, its likely her fundraising numbers would go up too, so we can't judge her vulnerability by current fundraising numbers.

                    •  S Collins is viewed in the Republican circles as (0+ / 0-)

                      as the first Republican defector when it is an important vote in the senate. The Republican donors think they will have a better profit for their money donating to a candidate in LA-Sen, AK-Sen, NC-Sen, MT-Sen,... than donating to S Collins.

                      The GOP is a party that is primarying lots of incumbents a lot more conservative than S Collins because they are not enough conservative. We know the profile of the national Republican donors.

                      In a competitive environment, where the Republicans can win the majority because they have the chance of winning in 2014 in:

                      KY-Sen
                      GA-Sen
                      WV-Sen
                      SD-Sen
                      MT-Sen
                      AR-Sen
                      LA-Sen
                      AK-Sen
                      NC-Sen

                      I would not be surprised if they cut first S Collins in ME-Sen, in order to focus themselves in races that can give them the type of senators that they want. But for it, it is necessary to make ME-Sen a competitive race. In the case of a competitive race with strong Democratic investment I think S Collins would fail like S Brown.

                      •  Collins is the only R who can hold the seat (5+ / 0-)

                        Donors know that once she's gone, someone like Pingree will almost certainly take the seat since its a state Obama won by 15 points. Without Collins' lock on that seat, the GOP path to a senate majority becomes even narrower.

                        And if the Democrats ever reach the stage where their losing all of KY,GA,WV,SD,MT,AR,LA,AK and NC, they should be  defending those seats anyway, rather than pouring money against Collins in a speculative attempt to make her race competitive. It's an unfortunate reality that funds are limited and therefore should be spent in places that will deliver the highest returns.

                        If someone could self-fund, or raise loads of money on their own to run against Collins, that would be great, but the DSCC should definitely be prioritizing their funds elsewhere.

                        •  The Republicans also have their own limits (0+ / 0-)

                          And it is not easy to defend a challenged incumbent in unfavourable territory. This is something that the Democratic Party knows well.

                          Also the rating of success for the Democratic party in D+6 districts or states in the last years has been good enough to make a bid.

                          •  History tells us it would be hard (4+ / 0-)

                            2008 was probably the best chance the Democrats had to knock Collins off, and they did invest too. If we compare the various factors involved in 2008 and in 2014:

                            National environment: 2008 (D-Wave) > 2014 (Neutral at best).
                            Democratic Candidate: Congressman Allen > Bellows.
                            Fundraising: Allen > Bellows.
                            Turnout: 2008 Presidential > 2014 Midterm.

                            Everything was more favourable for the Democrats in 2008, yet Collins won by 22 points, despite Obama's win by 18. I struggle to see how 2014 would be better. I guess politics isn't an exact science. Whether it's deserved or undeserved, there are some people like Collins, in some states like Maine, which just seem to transcend general trends like PVI.

                  •  Why waste our time in Maine (4+ / 0-)

                    when we have four incumbents, three of those four in states that Romney won with ease? The DSCC focus is to put money in races where we can win. Plus we have two top tier recruits in Georgia and Kentucky, in which both of them can win. We have no shot in Maine, unless Collins surprisingly retires like her old colleague did.

                    We were very lucky and fortunate when Snowe did that, cause had she stayed on for re-election, she was a shoe-in. Her retiring was an automatic pick-up. And though he's an independent, I considered King a defacto Dem, since he caucus with us, and his views are left leaning, same with Sanders.

                    Plus we have to defend two open seats blue states in Michigan and Iowa. We be wasting our time in Maine

                    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                    by BKGyptian89 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 12:09:35 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  A race in Maine is winnable (0+ / 0-)

                      Maine has the Democratic votes. Obama proved it recently. I understand not why some people seems to think that this is not a winnable race doing the right work.

                      Obviously without work ME-Sen will be a defeat, but working there are reasons to think that this race is winnable, because Maine just have the Democratic votes for it.

                      •  You just don't get it (4+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, Avedee, KingTag, wadingo

                        Maine's Senate race this year is simply not winnable for us as long as Collins is the Republican. The PPP poll that was linked to upthread showed Collins led Bellows by 14 points among Democrats!!!

                        The fact is, whether you like it or not, Collins is extremely popular among pretty much everyone in Maine, regardless of political opinion. You need to accept this fact. No amount of work or money is going to change the long-held opinions of so many Mainers.

                        Believe me, I don't like being represented by a Republican in the Senate, and I'm certainly not going to vote for Collins. But as long as she's the Republican nominee, she is guaranteed to win in a landslide. I've accepted this long ago. I think you need to do the same, because quite honestly your continued claims that ME-Sen is winnable, in spite of all the evidence, are getting a bit tiresome.

                        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

                        by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:20:24 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  doing the rigth things,I disagree,she isdefeatable (0+ / 0-)

                          but the right things are not being done

                          The fact is that S Collins is going weakly challenged, not strongly challenged like it would be necessary and like I call for.

                          While you keep taking this defeatist argument in a D+6 state, you will not defeat her. This is sure.

                          I explain the way that I see for you have a standard Democratic senator. When I was calling to challenge S Brown in 2011 I readed just this. Then the right things were done, and it proved that I was right. Now not, and it proves not that I'm wrong because this is not the scenario where I see a potential victory.

                          The Democrats in the Senate have a difficult year in 2014, can have a favourable year in 2016, but will have again a very difficult year in 2018. To concede this seat without fight until 2020 is a wrong strategy for me.

                          •  Scott Brown (5+ / 0-)

                            as far as I can remember, never hit a 61% approval rating, and he definitely didn't have a 63% approval rating with Democrats (or a 47-40 rating among those who identify as "very liberal").  Maine might be around D+6 but even though the Dems have that advantage, it doesn't matter because lots of Maine Dems like and are voting for Collins.  You could dump $100 million into Collins attack ads and short of a major scandal I still don't see how enough Dems abandon her for her to lose.  

                          •  S Brown was at a 73% in a DSCC poll in March 2011 (0+ / 0-)

                            http://www.salon.com/...

                            the title of this article is:

                            "The unbeatable Republican?"

                            One year and half later he was defeated.

                          •  The reason I'm getting annoyed here (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, wwmiv, lordpet8

                            is because this is not the first or second time that you have made these claims (that are not backed up by any evidence), and you simply refuse to accept the truth.

                            It wouldn't make any difference if "the right things were done". The right things were done in 2008, when Collins was challenged by Tom Allen, the 1st district Congressman. She still won 62-38, even as Obama was winning 58%. She outperformed McCain by 20 points!

                            What I don't think you realize about Maine is that it is an extremely elastic state. There are very few people in Maine who are either partisan Dems or partisan Reps. Most Mainers are independents and swing voters. Most Obama voters in Maine are not going to vote for candidates simply because they are Dems; they need more than that. Even the Dems here are generally more moderate than Dems elsewhere (such as MA), and they like moderate members of both parties. Obama's numbers tell us nothing about the Dems' ability to win a Senate race here.

                            Finally, you really need to stop trying to compare Susan Collins to Scott Brown. Susan Collins is a three-term incumbent who most Mainers have voted for and support, and have had these views for a long time. Scott Brown was a half-term Senator in a much bluer state who did not have the time to develop a moderate image anywhere near as strong as Collins's. If Massachusetts had the same partisanship as Maine in 2012, Brown would have defeated Warren.

                            So, in conclusion, please stop these ridiculous comments about the Maine Senate race. DKE is an evidence-based community, yet you have ignored all the evidence that many posters have mentioned, and instead repeat your claims like a broken record despite there not being a shred of evidence to back them up. You are wrong about ME-Sen. Collins is not defeatable. Please just accept this and move on.

                            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

                            by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 07:22:56 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Easy (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            propjoe, James Allen, CF of Aus

                            I don't agree with it but abgin's position isn't indefensible and shows admirable tenacity and ambition.

                            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                            by conspiracy on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 11:31:10 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  If abgin's position (0+ / 0-)

                            was that Collins should have a strong Democratic challenger, I'd agree. Obviously, I think every Republican should have a strong Democratic challenger.

                            However, his position is not only that but that this challenger has a chance of winning. That is the indefensible part, and the part that I (and many other posters) have debunked repeatedly.

                            It's kind of annoying when someone who's not from New England claims to know more about New England (and the state that I am living in, in particular) than I do.

                            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

                            by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 12:07:17 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Most everybody who agrees with you (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, propjoe, jncca

                            Doesn't live in Maine either.

                            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                            by conspiracy on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 12:15:55 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I know (0+ / 0-)

                            I was referring to abgin when I said that.

                            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

                            by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 01:10:17 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  People are entitled to state their opinions (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            propjoe, James Allen, CF of Aus

                            Even "wrong" ones that you don't agree with.

                            All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                            by tommypaine on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 01:16:47 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  But the argument is the same (0+ / 0-)

                            Merely not living in the area does not make someone's opinion inherently less valuable.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 01:20:44 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I used data and evidence to argue (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            CF of Aus

                            A previous comment tells wronly that S Brown never hit a 61% of approbal rating.

                            As answer, I show a evidence that he up higher than a 61% (73%), and you answer with this...

                            After it, your comment. It is so clear in this case, who is who accept not the evidence, and who get annoyed because the evidence supports not his argument.

                            I only give my opinion. I give my reasons, based mostly in numbers. You can agree or not. I need not to convince you. The strategies for this race will not be decided here.

                            It is not a rule of DKE to agree, even analizing the same numerical data, as it was not in SSP. Reading the same polls different people come to different conclussions, even about the winner of a race.

                            You can not force me to agree to your terms. It seems that you realize not about it. It seems that you want more than give your oppinion and to argue about it. It seems that you want to silence the others oppinion and this is what goes against the spirit of this community.

                            I'm not unconfortable being in the minority of some race (this time ME-Sen), but you seems unconfortable only having this minority that think different. Every cycle we discuss every race hundred of times. There is some trouble with arguing the same opinion 3, 4 or 7 times? It is so common here.

                            It would be better, if you avoid to tell to the people how must think or what must do. This is not what we do in DKE. If you enjoy talking about a race, perfect, I do, if you enjoy not the discussion then surely you are who must avoid the discussion, not me.

                          •  Sigh... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            I feel like a climate scientist trying to convince a Republican that climate change is real. No matter how much evidence I (and other scientists/DKE commenters) provide, the Republican will never be convinced. Thus, I will stop trying to convince you that I am right, since it seems to be just as pointless as trying to convince James Inhofe that climate change is real. Luckily for you, the consequence of your being wrong will only be disappointment on Election Night, rather than stronger and more frequent natural disasters, ocean acidification, more animals and plants going extinct, glaciers melting, etc.

                            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

                            by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 05:25:49 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  This whole conversation is a bit edgy (6+ / 0-)

                            Disagreeing is one thing, but no one needs to get so heated about it. Calling someone's argument "indefensible" or "kind of annoying" for instance really doesn't do much but put people on the edge.

                            Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

                            by Jeff Singer on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 05:47:46 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  The thing is this (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            When someone says something that I know is wrong, I feel that I have a duty to make sure that they know the truth. It is extremely difficult and painful for me to sit back and allow people to believe things that are false.

                            Now I know that people always have different opinions, and I have no problem with that if people are capable of defending their opinions with facts (which most DKErs are). What I have a problem with is when people contradict me but do not provide any evidence to support their position.

                            In the above argument, I gave a long list of reasons supporting my position, and I debunked the arguments that abgin raised.

                            His response? "I disagree." He provided no evidence either against my points or in support of his points that I debunked. That is the behavior that just drives me insane.

                            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

                            by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 06:33:37 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  you should take a deep breath (8+ / 0-)

                            and walk away from the thread if it's driving you insane.

                          •  Audrid's exactly right (4+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Skaje, David Nir, MichaelNY, CF of Aus

                            Believe me, I've read plenty of arguments here that have frustrated me. It's an inevitable part of debating on the internet even in the best of circumstances. The best thing to do in these situations is to drop the conversation, either politely or just by walking away.

                            There are always going to be people who don't agree. Many are doing it in good faith, like abgin is. Some may just be particularly difficult people. And some are trolls.  In any case, if the conversation has hit a roadblock, taking out frustrations isn't going to make it any better and will probably only make things worse.

                            I'd be lying if I said I wasn't guilty of angrily commenting here at times: I don't think anyone can honestly say they haven't let their frustrations get the better of them at times. The best thing to do if a conversation on DKE puts you in a really bad mood is to hold off on commenting. I've found that after a while I'm able to have the conversation in a much better mood or just decide it's not worth fighting about.

                            Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

                            by Jeff Singer on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 06:56:27 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  It doesn't matter if it's difficult (6+ / 0-)

                            It's what you must do. Your tone and attitude here is way too aggressive and way too edgy for DKE. Right now, you are experiencing "someone is wrong on the Internet" syndrome. Don't be that guy. You do not have a "duty."

                            And don't compare fellow commenters here to climate change denialists or James Inhofe. That's below the belt. What's more, when you hurl insults, it also ensures that there's no way the person you're trying to convince will have any interest in listening any longer.

                            Also, this is not the first time you've questioned abgin's fitness to opine about New England because he isn't from the region—as if being from a particular location matters at all to sound horserace analysis. I don't care what your beef is, but this has to stop.

                            I've said this a million times since SSP opened its doors, but if someone is bothering you, just walk away.

                            Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

                            by David Nir on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 07:15:40 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Clarification (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Actually what I said was that while I didn't remember what his approval rating peaked at, his approval rating was never as high as Collins' is among Democrats. There's no link to the crosstabs from that article but in any case I don't think they'd show him more popular with Democrats than with Republicans, as one poll recently showed Collins.  

                •  $2.8M COH as of 9/30/13 (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, abgin

                  Under 1.2mil in individual contributions thru 3Q's.  Under 35K in small contributions thru 3Q's.  About half committee money.

                  Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                  by benamery21 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:09:22 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  4Q not up yet on fec.gov, but filed (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, abgin

                    http://www.dailykos.com/...

                    Collins raised $315K in 4Q, Bellows raised $332K.  Collins isn't spending much, so her COH went up to a little over 3 mil.  

                    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                    by benamery21 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:40:16 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Bellows outraising Collins in the 4thQ just (0+ / 0-)

                      just is proving the weakness of S Collins in the money side.

                      ME-Sen in a  D+6 state is always a good opportunity for a Democrat. But if the strongest Democrats are not enough courageous to fight, lower level Democrats like Bellows should have the support.

        •  Do the same thing - expect the same results (7+ / 0-)

          I think Collins will be around a long time if Democrats take the position that she is unbeatable.  She was beaten in her try for Governor, for example.  Why was that different?  

          The biggest asset she now has is that carefully constructed 'moderate' image.  She cultivates that image every day, and the Republican Party is cultivating it right along side her.  McConnell gives her a pass to vote contrary to the Party's direction, for example, when her vote is not necessary for his strategy.  Take a look, those bipartisan votes have a pattern.  A careful look at her actual performance shows that the image is hollow, but if the only counter argument is made by underfunded candidates for a couple of months every six years, it's going to survive.  

          Howard Dean brought an important insight to his tenure at the DNC.  He called it the 50 state strategy, but it was also the full time strategy.  He wanted DNC staff in every state, full time, working on organizing, messaging, cultivating candidates, etc.  It worked!  And we shouldn't be surprised.  A farmer who only limed and spread manure on his pastures  just before he was hoping to sell his animals every 2, 4, or 6 years (and actually paying attention only every 4 years) would be raising very few cattle.  Of the various disappointments I felt in the early Obama performance, numbers 1 & 2 are replacing Howard Dean and installing Rahm Emmanuel as Chief of Staff (remember Rahm had a longstanding feud with Howard).

          It seems to me that, if the Democratic Party wishes to seriously challenge for that seat, that fundamental inequality between the way Collins gets to act, and  the way potential challengers have to compete, has to be where it starts.  

          •  Thanks for your contribution. (4+ / 0-)

            We here at DKE are all about the horse race, and we are with a few exceptions fairly hard nosed pragmatists. So talk of the 50 state strategy can get a few eye rolls if overdone.

            You won't get much disagreement from folks here on the difference between Collins image and her record. And yes it would be great for Harry Reid and co to convince some top tier challenger against her...

            But I doubt if Maine is being forgotten... It is the only blue state senate seat with a GOP incumbent. But the locals would have their polling and know that she is simply too strong. With Snowe, a few of them were hoping for a Chris Coons scenario where he got A witch rather than Castle, but nothing like that happened for Collins (or really for Snowe)

            So it would be great to target her, but we have 6 vulnerable red state dem senators and two red state top tier challenges in Georgia and Kentucky. I can only hope that we have the resources to give these eight races a shot. 50 state strategy is a bit of a joke i am afraid... We just don't have the ability to run a perfect race everywhere, we just hope to get a credible candidate who is not a felon and can run generic D in many races. And we also hope the GOP waste time targeting Warner with Gillespie in Virginia. I for one think we have a full plate at the moment.

            But Michaud is running for governor against le page, which he could well use to increase his profile, and hopefully pressure Collins into retiring one day. so let's hope to get rid of LePage for now! it is not a sure thing.

            Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

            by CF of Aus on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:40:18 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  maybe eyerolls from some (5+ / 0-)

              but long term we should have at least a minimal presence in every state ready to take advantage of an opportunity, should it present itself. There are states that 6 years ago today I'd have told you we had nothing to gain by competing there, like Georgia and Alaska, which have shown a good deal of promise lately, not just in 2008 but in how well Obama held up in 2012. Six years from now there may be more.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:04:03 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Clearly we want a credible challenger... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                But I wasn't advocating giving up on half the states just pointing out that there are quite a few optimists who tout longshot challengers here... And then bring up the 50 state strategy if you don't agree that they are sure to win if only the Dccc or whoever would back them. Although salmo of course had a good grasp on the situation, and certainely wasnt silly for suggesting more support for Bellows. But there are others who tout insane challenger to incumbent Texas GOP reps!

                Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

                by CF of Aus on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 03:01:10 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Maine is a state with a Democratic majority (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  CF of Aus

                  in the population. Maine has the Democratic votes to win. Only it is necessary to work strongly to have them voting to the Democratic candidates.

                  •  No, quite simply, you're wrong (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    wadingo, Avedee, MichaelNY, wwmiv

                    Democrats are not the majority in Maine. In fact, Dems aren't even close to the majority.

                    The partisan composition of Maine is about 30% Democratic, 20% Republican, and 50% Independent. Many of these Independents vote for Obama, but they are not going to be persuaded by Democratic arguments to abandon Collins.

                    30% of voters are never going to be enough to win an election. In fact, my current prediction is that Bellows gets only slightly above 30% of the vote in the general election.

                    Do you have any more talking points that you'd like me to debunk?

                    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

                    by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 07:38:29 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  Collins has had serious challengers the past two (14+ / 0-)

            times she was re-elected. In 2008, Tom Allen, a sitting Congressman who represented half the state, lost 61-39 as Obama won the state 58-40. He spent $6 million to her $8 million, so he was not underfunded. And in 2002 Chellie Pingree ran against her, spent about the same amount of money as her, and lost 58-42. Yes, Collins is a fauxderate, but there doesn't appear to be any way of convincing Mainers of that.

          •  To answer your question. (6+ / 0-)
            She was beaten in her try for Governor, for example.  Why was that different?
            It was different because she wasn't "Susan Collins" then. She was just a regional director for the Small Business Administration, and a Deputy Treasurer...in Massachusetts. She won an 8-way primary in 1994 with 21%, and only won 23% in the general vs. Angus King and former Gov. Joseph Brennan.

            25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

            by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 04:09:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Hey so I'm doing a research project (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LinSea, MichaelNY

    for school on VRA section 2 case law, and need to draw up a list of cases that I'm going to be looking at. I know the obvious ones (Baker v Carr*, Gingles), but I'm not really sure where else to look for more complex stuff. Particularly, I was wondering if someone could point me in the direction of important cases having to do with multiple minority groups in the same area, coalition districts, a groups with high non-citizenship rates. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

    *I know, that's more 14th amendment than VRA, but I'm looking at it because it's relevant.

  •  NY-04: Kate Murray(R) wont run (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    She is the Hempstead Town Superviser and apparently was being recruited to run by Peter King and Greg Walden.

    link.

    •  She was almost certainly their strongest candidate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      given how her current job basically covers a good chunk of the district.

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 10:28:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA AD-44: Second Democrat drops out (4+ / 0-)

    I was about to post a diary about this race, but it's going to require some editing now, because as I was posting it, I saw the news that Bernardo Perez had dropped out of the race, leaving Jacqui Irwin as the sole Democrat in the race. She will almost certainly place first in the open primary and if she can manage to crack 50%, that's a solid headwind going into November.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 08:12:01 PM PST

    •  You mean a solid tailwind (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      a headwind slows you down.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 08:24:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think Irwin will break 50% (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, CF of Aus, ehstronghold

      But that's not important; she'll most likely make it to November, where she has a good chance of flipping the seat blue.

      I'm more worried about AD-36, where this came through Scott Lay's Nooner today:

      AD36 (Antelope Valley): The most challenging Assembly race for Democrats to hold also just got a little more challenging, as Kermit Franklin told the Antelope Valley Press (which has a paywall) that he is running against Steve Fox -- his boss until last September. Franklin was a legislative aide for freshman Fox. Franklin says that he has policy disagreements with Fox and will run to the left of Fox.

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 08:41:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Saw "Mitt" tonight (8+ / 0-)

    Quite good, but it's missing some things like how he reacted to the 47% video and his rivalry with Santorum.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 08:25:31 PM PST

  •  Mary Landrieu, with Nelson's help (12+ / 0-)

    got the senate bill to delay the Biggert-Waters flood insurance act (the names in the title almost seem like puns), until a full overall and cost affordability study can be done. The praise is effusive for her throughout south Louisiana. Particularly for places like Jefferson, Pointe Coupee and Iberville. The ball is in Boehner's court, and again, Cassidy is seen as being pretty close with Boehner.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 08:34:07 PM PST

    •  Do you think the WH will sign it? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      They didnt issue a veto threat, but they did express concerns about it.

      Even if Boehner allows a vote, seems like it would be a bigger win for Landrieu if she can get the president's signature.

      •  I think KXL will be another "win" & big publicity (0+ / 0-)

        for the then new Energy and Natural Resources Chair Mary Landrieu as I cannot see reason why Pres Obama can block it given it will be mined in Canada regardless, so enviro impaxt very largely a non-issue Stateside.

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:29:49 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, I agree (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          madmojo, wadingo, ehstronghold

          Especially after yesterday, I think KXL gets approved, and at the very least, it's one less issue for Landrieu, Walsh, Begich and other Dems to deal with.

          Although, they might wait until June to make the announcement, when new coal regulations are due. GOP will certainly make a big deal about that, but they were going to anyway.

      •  I don't think so (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen, wadingo

        unless he wants the absolute fury of some powerful Democrats in the Senate and to essentially kneecap Landrieu's chances for reelection (and Democrats holding the Senate).

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 08:12:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah it's unfortunate (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Jacob1145, ArkDem14, wadingo

      that the first time I heard the name of the bill, I thought that "Big Hurt Waters" was kind of an insensitive name for it (until I made the Judy Biggert connection).  Landrieu has been awesome on this issue; it seems like she frequently is speaking on the Senate floor about it and while I'm not too familiar with LA politics it seems like a winning issue for her and one on which she's doing good work.

  •  From Comment on Kentucky this weekend (5+ / 0-)

    Panel: Host Farrell Wellman, Jack Brammer from the Lexington Herald-Leader, Greg Hall of the Louisville Courier Journal, and Scott Wartman from the Northern Kentucky Inquirer

    Issue 1- Filing Deadline Closes- About half of State House members face opposition, which is higher than normal. (45 of 100 seats contested in the fall). Dems control the House 54-46, but Republicans want to gain control. Here is the good news- Jack Brammer thinks the candidate filings make it more difficult for the GOP to win the House. He says that Speaker Greg Stumbo (D-Prestonsburg) is predicting a seven seat Dem gain, which is mostly talk. Brammer notes the strong Dem recruitment of women. Greg Hall mentions that former Jefferson County Commonwealth Atty Dave Stengel running against Rep. Kevin Bratcher (R-Louisville) is a big get. Jack Brammer also says that the GOP targets seem scattered across the state as well, though Farrell Wellman noted Western KY as a place of several targets. Greg Hall thinks a big development is Hal Heiner, the former Louisville Metro Councilman, and 2010 losing candidate for Metro Mayor, and almost certain 2015 GOP candidate for Gov setting up a SUPERPAC to influence House races could be a factor. Brammer says there are some big names on Heiner's list. Ag Commissioner James Comer seems to worry that this is to help Heiner. Brammer says Heiner could throw up to $500k into the race, which he could use to build up chips for 2015. Brammer also thinks that there could be an interesting race for a local Circuit Judgeship. Former State Senate President David Williams (R-Burkesville) has drawn a strong opponent for reelection. Hall also notes the very token nature of opposition to Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer. The panel also does not see any big US House races, other than Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), who faces a modest challenge from Elizabeth Jenson, as Dems failed to get any big names in the race. Wartman also notes that Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Vanceburg) did not draw a challenger from the 3 northern KY counties.

    The Senate Race- Scott Wartman notes that Tea Party members from the 7 surrounding states are going to get together to back Bevin and their kickoff will be in Erlangher (Boone Co). He doesn't know how active this will be, but they have Sen. Rand Paul (R-Bowling Green)'s 4th district director to head it up. Mitch and Grimes ($2.2 million vs. $2.1 million) are pretty close in fundraising for the 4th quarter, with Mitch having a big on cash advantage. Jack Brammer said this shows Grimes is formidable. Brammer notes the PPP poll has not budged even though Mitch has spent a lot of money. He also notes the Grimes event in Prestonsburg last week and how she is planning another one in Louisville on Thursday.

    The Legislature- Greg Hall discusses casino gambling. The House and Senate have different versions. Rep. Larry Clark (D-Okalona) has a clean amendment, while Sen. Dan Seum (R-Fairdale) has more specific language. It takes a 3/5 vote from both chambers to put it on the ballot in 2014. Now that the filing deadline has passed, this looks to be moving. The Kentucky Baptist Convention is opposed. They have a one week radio buy on Christian radio and videos to go into churches. Jack Brammer notes that their are 750,000 Baptists in Kentucky. One thing that seems to get agreement from both parties is more support for the bourbon industry. A House committee also passed out a $10.10 minimum wage increase, but will have a rough time in the Senate. One business owner claimed it would bankrupt him. Stumbo took him to task and told him he would buy his business if it went under. This is more of a campaign issue for Dems.

    The Brent Spence Bridge- It is the I-71/75 Bridge from Covington to Cincinnati that badly needs replaced. (If any of you have ever driven through there, you know what I mean). Gov. Beshear met with NKY legislators and it ended how it started- Beshear said tolls are necessary to get it going, but the legislative delegation is opposed. Wartman notes that the $60 million dollars Beshear's budget for planning on a new bridge goes away without toll support. There are two bridges being built in Louisville with tolls, so that delegation will never go along with NKY getting a non toll bridge. Hall also states that Sen. Dan Seum (R-Fairdale) filed a bill to name the new I-65 bridge in Louisville after Ronald Reagan. I will say that the reaction today has been almost universally negative on this idea in the Louisville metro area. People want it named for someone with connection to Kentucky/Indiana, and the most common name being put out is Abraham Lincoln. It is likely dead in the House, and rightly so. Indiana gets to name the East End Bridge.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Jan 31, 2014 at 09:40:23 PM PST

  •  Michigan campaign finance reports (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Jacob1145

    So, the annual campaign finance reports were released, today:  

    - Rick Snyder raised $5,081,330.11 with $4,008,431.09 on hand for 2013.  

    - Mark Schauer raised $1,634,542.98 with $1,052,980.32 at year's end.*

    *Schauer's committee wasn't formed until May 24th.

    If Schauer is granted public financing, he'll be capped at $2 million for the primary, which he'd be better off doing looking at his fairly weak haul for the entire year of 2013.  By comparison, in his last run - which was for Congress - he raised about $1.3 million.

  •  Not electoral, but (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kurykh, gabjoh, killjoy, DCCyclone

    I think I'll write an introspective diary talking about how I feel strongly about being a Mormon Dem, and how isolated I feel as a Mormon and a Democrat in Utah.

    Possibly also a diary on historical Mormon Democrats and progressive Mormon Republicans.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 12:14:45 AM PST

  •  IL-GOV: Rutherford Allegations (8+ / 0-)

    As I noted in the live digest Friday, Dan Rutherford held a press conference to explain that allegations had been made against him (but wouldn't say what they were), and accused Bruce Rauner of being behind them.

    Apparently, the allegations are from a male employee accusing Rutherford of sexual harassment.

    [T]he reliable source reports that the accuser, still employed by the Treasurer’s office, claims he has been the victim of sexual harassment by the Treasurer, as well as abuse of political power and infringement of the man’s first amendment rights because the accuser claims he was forced by the State Treasurer’s office to engage in political activity while he was supposed to be providing services to the taxpayers in the state treasurer’s office.
    The source also states that Rutherford and the employee have been friends for years.

    I know there had been some very subtle talk about Rutherford's sexuality before (though never on the level of, say, Mark Kirk or Aaron Schock).

    Rutherford noted today that the employee is being represented by an attorney (Christine Svenson) who was paid $3,500 by Rauner back in July.  Rauner says it was for one lease deal that he couldn't use his regular attorney for due to a conflict of interest with the landlord. Rutherford says Svenson asked for $300,000 to keep it quiet.  

    For what it's worth I guess, the Sun Times found a picture on Svenson's facebook page of her with Rutherford's running mate, Steve Kim.  

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 12:34:52 AM PST

  •  I was an undercover agent for DKOS (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Gygaxian, Taget

    in KY for the last week. Mitch McConnell is already running ads for his reelection. Louisville market, anyway.

    Americans, while occasionally willing to be serfs, have always been obstinate about being peasantry. F. Scott Fitzgerald, the Great Gatsby

    by riverlover on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 03:43:33 AM PST

  •  Toronto Mayor 2014 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY, James Allen

    Former Progressive Conservative leader and current talk show host John Tory will run against Toronto's greatest mayor everTM and Canadian national treasure Rob Ford.

    After months of uncertainty, John Tory is preparing to jump into the race to become Toronto’s next mayor.

    The official launch of Tory’s campaign is planned for late February at a huge kickoff event at a Toronto venue inspected last Saturday by senior Tory election advisers.

    At the rally, Tory will unveil a campaign platform that features four key points: a call for more transit and an improved TTC; a youth employment strategy to combat growing joblessness among residents under 25; a renewed focus on city-wide economic development; and a restoration of decorum and co-operation at city hall after the turmoil seen under Mayor Rob Ford.

    Also, Tory organizers are lining up a bipartisan crowd of business, political and community leaders who will publicly declare their support for the popular radio talk-show host and former provincial Conservative leader who finished a close second to David Miller in the 2003 mayoral race.

    http://www.thestar.com/...

    The article also mentions that Olivia Chow is expected to enter the race in late February once she's done promoting her new autobiography. Also Tory's backers are wooing Tom Allison (the man behind Premier Kathleen Wynne's successful bid for the Liberal leadership) to run John Tory's mayoral campaign.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 07:43:23 AM PST

    •  I saw the words (4+ / 0-)

      "Tory" and "Conservative" in the same sentence and momentarily wondered if Britain was having its general election early. (Probably next year.)

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 08:23:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hope Chow ends up taking it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Rob Ford still has a lot of popularity with his tax-hating suburban base, but I think (and hope) this guy will get squeezed from either side.

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:38:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wouldn't Tory and Ford have same base? (0+ / 0-)

        I think Ford could get forced out here - Tory would be the same, though without the scandals.  If Tory and Ford both run than Chow has a really good chance to win.  

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 11:16:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  No runoff is the problem (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Ford likely could never win a runoff.

        "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

        by Paleo on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 11:23:56 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  This is (0+ / 0-)

      This is how the left in Toronto will win this race.  Rob didn't win with a majority, anyway.  If the right is split like the left was, this would allow the left candidate to have a chance even if Rob retains his entire base or coalition.

  •  TX-Sen: here's a video (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    of Maxey Scherr more or less accusing John Cornyn and Ted Cruz of human rights violations. Dope.

    •  That's not what she said (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, ehstronghold, sulthernao

      Of course, it can be distorted that way as a sound bite. But this is what she said:

      "I promised myself...I would never be quiet when I saw human rights violations going on. And I am running because human rights violations are going on....John Cornyn and Ted Cruz have voted against human beings time and time again. In fact, they just got a zero percent voting record on civil and human rights..."

      And then she followed up with specifics.

      If right-wingers can make highly partisan speeches with a bunch of lies, then in a race in which she has no chance, I think that it's OK for a Democratic candidate to make perfectly accurate partisan speeches.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:13:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hey, I meant it as a compliment! :) (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bythesea, gabjoh

        I exaggerated slightly for effect, but saying Cornyn and Cruz "have voted against human beings time and time again"... I think that's a fantastic description of what they do, and a compelling reason to give for why she's running. This is how all Democrats should talk.

        •  And let me add (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          that in a year where we have no real chance to win, but where a big effort is being made to energize the party, via the Davis campaign and Battleground Texas, that having another woman at the top of the ballot making this kind of unapologetically populist argument is just what we need.

          Unfortunately, the party (including Davis) seems to be getting behind the opportunistic Alameel, who is likely to be inspiring to approximately zero voters...

        •  Oh, I thought you were calling her a dope (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea

          This is where slang without tone of voice can be confusing.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:17:55 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Generation gap. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            I don't know how old Chachy is, actually, but dope has become (on the whole) more of a positive term than a negative one among youngsters like me.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 04:35:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  heh! (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bythesea, MichaelNY

            Yeah, my bad, guess that was ambiguous. I'm in my earlyish 30s, but apparently i'm still a youngster, at least according to jncca's standards. :)

  •  OR-02: Walden's primary challenge is going nowhere (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacob1145

    his challenger raised $12,000 last quarter.

    Also, on the heels of a PPP poll showing a huge majority of Oregonians support universal background checks, local talk radio host and HD-25 candidate Bill Post posted a short piece called "Gun Poll is Flawed". How does he dissect PPP's work and prove that its "flawed"? The only things he points out are that PPP is a "controversial" Democratic pollster and that the link from the local paper goes to the "secretive" Center for American Progress.
    Except this:

    Here is my main problem with this poll:  No question in the poll states anything about expanding background checks.   It asks if you support background checks on all purchases. It’s horribly misleading!
    If they support backgrounds checks for all purchases, it does indicate they favor expanding background checks, though, since there are not currently for all purchases. But really 95% of his complaint is that it was a Democratic pollster working with a progressive thinktank. So obviously its a horrible poll.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:19:32 AM PST

  •  CA-31: I tried finding another source, but I (0+ / 0-)

    couldn't find one that had actual numbers. A few people mentioned last night on Twitter that Pete Aguilar had a bad quarter. According to Howey Klein (again tried looking for other sources), Pete Aguilar only raised $146K.

    •  Reyes raised over 300K in 4Q13, nt (0+ / 0-)

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 11:23:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Should have followed the link first (0+ / 0-)

      I got the Reyes' number off fec.gov, but Aguilar isn't up yet.

      The Miller number doesn't include transfers, which brought him to almost $149K, still awful for his situation, of course, and a big drop from 3Q.  The Baca and Miller numbers are accurate.  Aguilar is likely to also have some transfers.

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 11:32:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Aguilar's 4Q is up on fec.gov, $147,086, $523K COH (0+ / 0-)

        We've got 4 months until what will probably be a decisive primary for these two candidates.  Aguilar has a slight edge in cash-on-hand, a little bigger if you discount Reyes' $100K candidate load back in 2Q13, but Reyes had a much better quarter fundraising.  Miller will almost certainly win a plurality in the jungle primary, and so whichever of these two candidates can edge into second place with 20-odd % of the vote from a small primary electorate will likely be the next Congressman from CA-31.  This seems like a lousy way to pick our representative.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 10:58:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  A friend sits next to Chuck Schumer on the shuttle (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possible Liberal, Jacob1145, wadingo

    A friend was recently in D.C. for something or other. Coming back, she sat next to Chuck Schumer, or Chuck the Schmuck, on the shuttle. (She and her husband are both Republicans, so it's not surprising she isn't a fan.) She said he was very loud and was apparently on the phone with Al Roker, wanting to know why Atlanta wasn't warned about the snow or something, and Roker was angrily insistent that they knew what was coming. She said she also her Prez, which I assume can only mean Obama, was pissed at what happened in Georgia.

    I have no reason for mentioning this except that I think it's funny and that I will forever remain starstruck. Maybe I should move close to D.C. so I can invite Martin Heinrich and Barbara Mikulski to go skeet shooting or something.

    You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

    by bjssp on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 11:23:10 AM PST

    •  That should be (0+ / 0-)

      "she heard him say Prez was pissed..."

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 11:23:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Today's Jersey-area newspapers: (6+ / 0-)

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 02:30:11 PM PST

  •  This is (4+ / 0-)

    a little off topic, but me and my sister are planning on visiting New York and Boston for the first time ever in the summer. And as the older sibling I'm charge of planning the whole thing...

    Since this is the first time we're going to visit, I was wondering how many days should we spend in both New York and Boston in order to get the full touristy experience?

    Also how is the weather in both New York and Boston during the summer? (I live in the SF Bay Area so summer for us is crummy.)

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 02:46:21 PM PST

    •  Some Brooklyn attractions (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh

      This is right in my old backyard in Prospect Heights/Park Slope, I suggest go along Eastern Parkway, it's a lot of attractions there. The Brooklyn Botanical Garden is beautiful during the spring and summer time. The Brooklyn Museum of Art is right next to it. The central library is down the street, along with Prospect Park which is like our Central Park.

      It's a lot of places you can go to in Brooklyn, but that area I mention is a tourist area with all those attractions right next to each other on the same street. During that time of year I always see those red tourist bus going along that section of Eastern Pkwy.

       

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 02:59:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I spent 7 days in Manhatten alone ! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      When my girlfriend and I went last September we spent 7 of our 8 days in Manhatten and I like the idea of spending more time doing a place properly than racing round just to say you saw places.

      We of course would have loved even more time, but I felt doing less than a week in Manhatten wasn't doing it justice. We felt that not having a quiet day in Central Park was an error on our part (not sure what the weather is like when you are there of course).

      We only spent one day in Brooklyn (so we didnt get to Queens, Staten Island, Niagra Falls etc) and we really want to go back there.

      I got a few ideas from several people before going to NY last September. David Nir gave me a few suggestions including Sleep No More which we went to on our last night in NYC and while pricey it was absolutely worth it.

      Basically I guess what I am saying is the more time you can spend in NYC the better!

      Hope you and your sister have a blast!

      Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

      by CF of Aus on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 04:49:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Central Park is good to visit (0+ / 0-)

        in any weather except a thunderstorm or all-out snow or ice storm. I think the same would be true for Prospect Park, a larger park designed by the same guys (Vaux and Olmsted).

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 08:59:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It depends (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, KingofSpades, wadingo, sacman701

      Are you a casual tourist, a "see-it-all" tourist, a shopping tourist, a museum tourist, etc?

      I'd say the absolute, absolute minimum for New York City is 3 days and that's just for a small taste. I think with 5 full days (w/no MoMa or Met visits) you can see most major sights.

      Day 1: Staten Island Ferry, Statue of Liberty (you can see it fine from the Ferry if you want to save time), Financial District, Battery Park, Castle Clinton, Wall Street, Brooklyn Bridge, Woolworth Building, World Trade Center Site and 1WTC, Trinity Church, City Hall, and then a food walking tour through Nolita, Little Italy and Chinatown. Maybe some shopping at night in Soho?

      Day 2: Midtown Staples. Start in Times Square and then Empire State Building (you can also do this on Day 4), Rockefeller Center, Radio City Music Hall, Bryant Park, the Lions of New York Public Library, Chrysler Building, Grand Central Terminal, United Nations Headquarters, St. Patrick's Cathedral, Waldorf-Astoria Lobby, and then finish at night with a Broadway play in the Theatre District and gawk at the neon spledor that is Times Square at night.

      Day 3: Central Park. Columbus Circle, Carnegie Hall, 57th Street (a supertall boom is currently ongoing), Fifth Avenue, Apple Store, MoMa (if you go in it will take all day), Central Park, The Pond, Metropolitan Museum of Art (see MoMa), the Guggenheim, The Dakota (John Lennon's murder site), Strawberry Fields, San Remo, American Museum of Natural History. Finish up with a drink on top of the Met and admire Midtown from afar or maybe another performance at the nearby Lincoln Center. Black Swan?

      Day 4: A City of Neighborhoods. New York is a city of districts so spend Day 4 exploring some of the most famous. There's Harlem in Upper Manhattan, Williamsburg in Brooklyn, Brighton Beach for Russian culture shock, Koreatown and Flushing in Queens. For logistical reasons I'd stick to a Greenwich Village-Union Square-Garment District route that takes in a lot of beautiful and eclectic cast iron architecture and wonderful shops. Greenwich Village, Stonewall, Washington Square Arch, New York University, McNulty's Rare Teas and Coffee Shop, Katz' is a small walk, Union Square, Flatiron District, Flatiron Building, Madison Square Park, Shake Shack, and then walk up the Garment District to Macy's Herald Square and see Madison Square Garden and end with a stroll in the High Line in Chelsea?

      Day 5: Always a miscellaneous day. Something you want to go back to that you missed, etc. A filler day for if there is bad weather. A "soaking it all in" day. Columbia University, Coney Island, Dumbo, Prospect Park, Yankee Stadium, Ellis Island ect. etc.

      Obviously I don't expect you to follow this but is gives a general outline of what's possible (I did this last year). If you think this is too ambitious, add a day or two (or more). But I think this is what's feasible for most young people. If you want to go to any of the big museums (Met, MoMa, AMoNH) then add a day for each one. And some have free admissions or reduced admissions for college students and at late evenings.

      Tips: Food and hotel are insanely expensive in Manhattan. For hotels try to find a deal in Midtown or just stay in Brooklyn/Northern Jersey and take the bus/train/subway to get to Manhattan each day. Port Authority IS a labyrinthine maze of pain and suffering so be careful not to get lost (there are friendly touts who will help you for $5, but you don't want to meet up with them if you don't have to) And it just depends on your tolerance for commuting.

      For food, I'd check out the staple food joints in NYC (Katz', Pommes Frites, Shake Shack) and avoid restaurants. I wouldn't eat anywhere within 1 mile of Times Square unless you like overpriced, oversalted food. I think the Pizza joints in New York were both overrated (Grimaldi's and Lombardi's) but that's just me.

      Haven't been to Boston yet so I can help there but I applied for grad school in Tufts University so I might wind up there nonetheless.

      22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

      by gigantomachyusa on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:51:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Boston is quite nice in the summer IMO (0+ / 0-)

      it can probably get a little hot for you coming from the bay area, but the worst it usually gets is like mid-80s or so which is really not that bad IMO.

      and as gigantomachy said, what kind of tourist are you? How long you should visit for depends on what you want to see. There are museums, there's (obviously) historical stuff, there's college campuses to just explore and take in the vibe at (although Harvard's campus becomes insane in the summer - overrun with tourists, mostly international), there's the aquarium, there's beaches if you take the train up to Newburyport/Rockport, there are islands you can take the ferry too, there's whalewatching (I think), you could rent a car and spend a day at Cape Cod, really it depends on what kind of things you're up for.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:58:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  As for weather, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      New York and Boston can both be pleasant but as a tourist I'd go in expecting mid-80s and very humid. Just check the weather and be prepared to do all your outdoor sightseeing in the morning and then peppering in indoor attractions during the hottest times of the day (eat at 4-5pm, instead of 7-8pm for instance). I don't think weather will be that big of a problem though. For my last trip the weather was great maybe 4 of 5 days and that last day it was hot as balls. If you are from San Francisco, it will feel most likely feel anywhere from 'mild hot' to 'Cayenne Pepper' hot. The concrete jungle heat island effect doesn't help either. Just bring water. You wouldn't belive how many tourists come to New York with minimal water and are then coughing up $5 for water at the stalls. There was a place in the Financial District even selling one bottle of water for $7.50!!

      22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

      by gigantomachyusa on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:59:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Which month? (0+ / 0-)

      June is sometimes nice in New York, but July and August are generally awful - hot and humid.

      For New York, 10 days is ideal, but you can get a decent sense of the city in a week. What you should do and see depends a lot on what you like, but I'd recommend walking a lot, even if the weather is unpleasant. I've crossed the Brooklyn Bridge when it was 29 (though without wind) and 92. OK, 92 was a bit extreme. But if it's in the 80s, it's totally fine.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 08:55:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I haven't spent as much time in Boston as I'd like (0+ / 0-)

      But it deserves at least 3 days, if you can spare them. The Boston Museum is a fantastic art museum with some very famous holdings, and it's good to spend another day doing at least some of the Freedom Trail. The last time I was there for a tourist visit, I went to Paul Revere's house, and there was a man there in period costume who was extremely informative.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 09:02:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Christie criticizes Wildstein (6+ / 0-)

    says Wildstein will say anything to save himself. This was the guy Christie created a job for at the PA.

    link.

  •  Jeb tells Mom "Stop Saying That!" aka he's running (9+ / 0-)
    Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) opened up about a potential 2016 run and his mother's comments putting down the idea of a presidential campaign.

    In April 2013, the former first lady said "we've had enough Bushes" in the White House, brushing aside the idea of Jeb running for president. Barbara Bush said "there are people out there" who are qualified for the position outside of her own family.

    When asked about the comments, Jeb Bush said "she promised me she wouldn't keep saying this."

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 02:51:55 PM PST

  •  VA-11: 2010 election (0+ / 0-)

    In 2010, Gerry Connolly barely won reelection against Keith Fimian by just under 1,000 votes, winning 111,720-110,739. But lets say that Fimian had won in 2010.

    How would Republicans have drawn the new VA-11 in redistricting? Would they still turn it into a dem vote sink and screw Fimian or would they have tried to help him by drawing an at least right leaning swing seat since the old VA-11 was a swing seat?

    •  Hard to say (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      VAPersian

      My best guess they would have shored up the district slightly but still left it with a slight D -lean.

      or I think they still could have watered down the other districts (6th, 7th and 9th) but it would be risky.

      “The Republican party can’t be the party that thinks one of the biggest problems is that there’s too much love in the world.” - Alex Castellanos

      by lordpet8 on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 05:36:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'll draw it now and post. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, VAPersian

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 05:45:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here's what I got (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn

        In NoVa:
         photo va2_zps89abcdbe.jpg

        Moran's district gets even bluer, 1.8% to be exact, as it becomes even more of a vote sink.    It loses the light blue parts of Fairfax along the river (Fort Hunt, Franconia, Fort Belvoir) and in exchanges goes into Prince William County to pick up Woodbridge/Dale City.  

        Wolf's district gets 2.5% bluer, picking up Reston, Herndon, Wolf Trap, and Vienna in Fairfax as well as rural red Shenandoah County on the other end of the district.  In exchange, it loses outer Fairfax and its part of Prince William.

        Connolly/Fimian's district gets about 9% redder (both the 10th and 11th are EVEN PVI districts and tossups), losing the areas already mentioned in Fairfax to Wolf and Woodbridge/Dale City to Moran.  It instead gobbles up the red parts of NoVa and goes a bit out into the rural areas.

        So now other districts must adjust.

        Wittman is the one who gets a bit screwed.  He gets 2.3% bluer, getting an R+4 district with the growth coming in NoVa, so his district becomes Lean R.  He takes in a bit of Fairfax as well as Manassas.  To try to help him out, I drew him a bit into the Richmond suburbs in an area that should suburbanize and grow quickly to cancel out NoVa as best I could.  He changes some other territory too but it's all rural.  He loses Fredericksburg and takes in the red and purple parts of Newport News.

         photo va1_zps4a8a306f.jpg

        Cantor gets a district 3.5% bluer, but it's still R+6 and out of reach.  The main additions are Fredericksburg and some swingy rural counties.  He loses some of Chesterfield and a few red counties.

        Forbes can now say pretty much anything he wants.  His light red district gets 1.1% redder, moving to R+6.  Cantor helps him out, as they exchange Chesterfield precincts.

        Bobby Scott manages to get vote sinked 0.7% more.  

        Finally, Scott Rigell gets 2% redder somehow (Virginia Republicans did a bad map for him I guess).  He's now at R+5 and very safe.  He gains some of Chesapeake and Poquoson, losing the swingy parts of Newport News.  

        So...in summary.

        VA-10: Tilt R to Pure Tossup
        VA-11: Safe D to Pure Tossup
        VA-1: Safe R to Lean R.
        VA-7: Safe R to Likely R

        And, not due to Fimian but because I could:

        Forbes: Lean R to Likely R
        Rigell: Likely R to Safe R

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:44:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think they might have tried (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      VAPersian

      to give him a winnable district, but it would have been a competitive one that he might well have lost in 2012--and might have made the now-open 10th more Democratic.

      NOVA is now Democratic enough that the GOP can't guarantee themselves all but one district anymore, no matter how much they might have packed the 8th with Dems.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 05:51:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting questions (0+ / 0-)

      I wonder too what Republicans would have done in Wisconsin if they had also knocked off Ron Kind in 2010 (he won with less than 4%).  They certainly wouldn't have been able to vote sink him then to protect Duffy.  Would they have left both seats vulnerable to swinging back?

      Or Sanford Bishop, who won with under 3% that year.  Would have been tough to make his seat more Republican while also shoring up Austin Scott (and also following the VRA).

      I also wonder how the New York redistricting would have played out if Maurice Hinchey had lost (he won with 5.4%).  Wonder if the commission would have axed a Democrat instead from NYC in addition to the Republican in his seat.

      •  the commission? (0+ / 0-)

        didn't NY have a court-drawn map?

        •  Redistricting in NY is a disaster (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, DCal, askew

          Read here.

          A commission draws their maps, but the commission members are entirely appointed by the legislature.  Democrats were allowed to gerrymander the Assembly, Republicans passed their most aggressive gerrymander of the Senate yet (including adding a new seat in Upstate New York!), and the congressional map was a compromise of sorts between Republican and Democratic interests.

          When Maurice Hinchey (D) announced his retirement, the commission chose to dismantle his seat so as not to upset other incumbents.  Bob Turner (R), the fluke winner of Anthony Weiner's seat, got the other axe as he had few friends in Albany.  As one Republican and one Democrat was eliminated, it was seen as "fair".

          There was all sorts of other shenanigans behind the scenes, such as congressmen actually hiring lobbyists to protect their seats.  In the end, seemingly as to rub salt in the wound, Republicans got an independent commission passed but one that will only take effect in 2022, once Democrats are quite likely to have complete control and could gerrymander everything to their hearts content.

          So, yeah.

          •  The congressional map was drawn (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, Skaje

            by the court though instead of the commission though, right? They couldn't agree to any map and Cuomo did his bullshit about vetoing it so the courts took over the process and started from scratch. Also there's no way you could possibly have axed another NY Dem while being VRA compliant.

            The fact that Cuomo did that shit, signed the senate gerrymander, and the legislation for an independent commission in 2022 makes me hate his fucking guts. There isn't much more he could have done to aid Republicans in such an under the table manner and that violates rule #1 of being a Democrat in good standing. He's been a de facto Republican in a state where they cannot win statewide election.

          •  A court drew the congressional map (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            And to be fair to Cuomo independent redistricting was part of his platform. However the statute they passed is absolutely terrible and independent in name only. The worst thing of all is that Cuomo blasted the court-drawn congressional map saying it is what the Republicans and Democrats would draw when in reality it was based on maps drafted by Common Cause.

            I am also not convinced that Maurice Hinchey's seat would have been eliminated in redistricting if the state legislature drew the maps. I think it is a district that both parties liked. It literally snaked around a grabbed as many Dems as possible insuring that the Dems won a in the area. Meanwhile it helped the nearby Republicans by keeping the strong Dems areas out of their districts. Breaking it up just produced seats that will swing more between the parties.

            M, 24, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

            by slacks on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 12:28:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  VA HD-100: Dems nominate Willie Randall (0+ / 0-)

    A bit of an upset, I'd say. Randall was defeated for re-election to the Northampton County Board of Supervisors 57-43 last year in a precinct that went 49-42 McAuliffe and 52-48 Obenshain. This is probably not good news, because he doesn't seem like that strong a candidate to me.

    •  If he isn't strong, how'd he win against the crowd (0+ / 0-)

      also, sometimes the CW pick (like Lynwood Lewis) isn't always the best campaigner.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 05:22:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It looks like the two other candidates (0+ / 0-)

        split the vote in Accomack.

        "Randall garnered 537 votes to retired Accomack County businessman Peter Lalor’s 492 votes and Accomack County Supervisor Donald L. Hart Jr.’s 318 votes."

        "In his home county of Northampton, Randall received 274 votes to Lalor’s 124 and Hart’s 58 in the primary.

        In Accomack County, Lalor prevailed, with 353 votes to Randall’s 235 and Hart’s 234.

        The 100th District in addition to the two Eastern Shore counties includes part of the city of Norfolk, where Randall garnered 28 votes, Hart got 26 and Lalor got 15."

        Though Hart came in third, so apparently his long-standing service in Accomack County hasn't translated to voter goodwill.

        I think the big problem for Democrats is that nobody in Norfolk knows who any of these candidates are (only 69 people voted in the primary! Norfolk is over a third of the district!), so they're probably not going to turn out to vote. Same problem Lynwood Lewis had, except now there's even less time for the Democrat to introduce himself to the voters.

  •  Hypothetical of the weekend. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, Gygaxian, MichaelNY

    Lets say Christie leaves office or is impeached. What would the race look like to replace him?

  •  NOLA Mayor: Mitch Landrieu wins (15+ / 0-)

    Local TV called it about 15 minutes after polls closed.

    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:25:12 PM PST

  •  stockman (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Possible Liberal

    anyone know what steve stockman's "big surprise" was?  It was supposed to explain where he's been the last month.  Was it just hot air?  It probably was.

    NH-02. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

    by DougTuttle on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 06:38:55 PM PST

  •  MI Congressional Races Fundraising (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    While incumbent Republicans in vulnerable seats have large cash-on-hand advantages, it looks their Democratic challengers have generally kept quarterly pace with their opponents:

    On the east side of the state, GOP challenger David Trott out-raised incumbent Kerry Bentivolio, $449,517 to Bentivolio's $126,890. As of Dec. 31, Trott had $710,729 in his campaign account while Bentivolio had $128,959. Trott, however, donated $200,000 of his own money in the fourth quarter, bringing the total up to $408,401.64 for all of 2013.

    Several Democrats have raised more than $100,000 in their campaigns to challenge Republican incumbents.

    Jerry Cannon, a retired U.S. Army general, out-raised Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Dan Benishek. Cannon raised $162,139 in the final three months of 2013. In the same period Benishek raised $128,060.

    In 2010 and 2012 the race to represent Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula was one of the most competitive in the U.S. Cannon still has to catch up to Benishek's war chest: he had $194,932 cash on hand at the end of the year while Benishek had $575,833.

    In Michigan's 7th District, Democrat Pam Byrnes raised $200,454 in the fourth quarter, short of Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg's $219,778. Byrnes has $299,459 cash on hand, which is considerably less than Walberg's $728,548.

    In the 11th, as I posted yesterday, it looks like Trott is going to run over Bentivolio.  Trott raised $449,517 in the fourth quarter, alone, and has $710,729 on hand.  Their Democratic opponent, Bobby McKenzie raised $106,826 in the fourth quarter.  It should be made know that most of these challengers didn't enter until the 3rd quarter at the earliest, but that's usually the case, anyway.
  •  steve king outraised (6+ / 0-)

    again by democrat Jim Morwrer.

    Democrat Jim Mowrer raised $175,362 during the months of October through December, compared with $162,850 for King during that quarter.
    Since joining the race last summer, Mowrer has had similar fundraising totals over the two quarterly reporting periods. He raised $181,514 for his first quarter in the race through Sept. 30, while King raised $109,871 for that quarter.
    http://siouxcityjournal.com/...

    2012 showed how difficult it will be to actually defeat him, but numbers like these don't hurt.

    NH-02. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

    by DougTuttle on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 07:47:49 PM PST

    •  That's not much.. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, MichaelNY

      although it might be in Iowa, I don't know. But I usually see house candidates running in the half million dollar range per quarter if they're hoping to knock off a strong incumbent.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 08:02:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Problem in that district is a LOT of... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ProgMD, James Allen, MichaelNY

        ...media markets to cover.  Every one is cheap, because Iowa is cheap except for the Quad Cities stations whose ad pricing is crazy high.  But it's a bunch of markets, including the biggest in the state, Des Moines.  Then there's Mason City, maybe Waterloo-Cedar Falls peeks in, and Sioux City.  Council Bluffs/Omaha, too, reaches it, and I think Fort Dodge might have a lone broadcast station (I think an ABC affiliate).  So that's a lot, it adds up.

        Bottom line, Mowrer hasn't raised enough for a big media buy.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 07:20:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  KY-06: Is Barr gonna get away without a tough (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    challenger?  Since this is a swingy/light red district with a strong Democratic bench that Alison Lundergan Grimes will likely win, Kentucky Democrats would be stupid not to find someone good to run here.

    •  Right (0+ / 0-)

      However, this may be the kind of seat that, once in Republican hands, will not be dislodged for a long time. And just because they may be willing to vote for state-wide Democrats, even for the Senate, that doesn't mean they don't like their Representative. But is it really so likely for Lundergan Grimes to win that district?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:42:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just eyeballing it she got about 66-68% (6+ / 0-)

        in KY-06 in her 2011 run, which was 5-7% more Democratic than statewide.  I expect her to lose by about 5 points in 2014 statewide, so I think she'll have at least a narrow victory in KY-06.

        Someone who is more of a establishment conservative like Trey Grayson could become entrenched in the district, but Barr is tea party and should be a Democratic target because he's not a very good fit for this district.

        Formerly known as psychicpanda. NC-04

        by JacobNC on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:57:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  If she runs very strong (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        Say she gets like 47-48%, she'll win KY-6, maybe even if she gets a little less. And if she were to win the seat, she'd definitely carry it, by quite a few points.

        27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 11:06:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  She has to to have a chance (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen

        She needs to perform well in Eastern and Western Kentucky of course, but she faces a challenge trying to replicate Steve Beshear's (and her own previous) winning map, as Demosaurs might be less likely to break their new voting patterns for a federal race (witness Jack Conway somehow losing Pike County in the heart of East KY coal country to Rand Paul...even John Kerry still won this Demosaur county).

        So Grimes needs to run up a margin in KY-06 as best she can.  Even considering how red it is, it's still well to the left of the state and I believe Conway might have come close to winning it in 2010 (and I think both Bruce Lunsford and Dan Mongiardo also won it in their races in 2008 and 2004 respectively).

      •  Yes if Grimes comes within single digits (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen

        she should be at worst 50-50 here. Jack Conway lost statewide by 11.4% but lost the 6th by just 2.8%. In 2008 Bruce Lunsford lost statewide by 6% but won the 6th by 4%. In 2011 Democrats all won roughly 4% more of the vote in the 6th than they did statewide. So I'd say that Grimes vs McConnell in the 6th is at least Lean D since I don't see her doing any worse than a 6-8 point loss overall unless Obama and national Dems see some serious down turn in their numbers.

      •  this seat has been flipping back and forth since (0+ / 0-)

        1978 BUT it has only gone dem in open seats - when that one congressman whose name escapes me retired in 92 and when Fletcher was elected governor in 03.

    •  Elisabeth Jensen has been running for awhile (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Hasn't raised much money though, and has a rather bare-bones website.  Most people are slotting this Safe GOP now after some earlier hope.  The fact that Ben Chandler lost in 2012 despite surviving 2010 is pretty depressing.  It's not really light red...Romney won it 56-42 (which would make it R+9).  I think we think such seats are light red because Democrats like Chandler used to be able to win them with ease.  Under that metric, John Spratt's old seat (now held by Mick Mulvaney) is swingy at 55-44 Romney, but no one seems to think we can get that one back either.

      Grimes is likely to do well in KY-06, but she's also likely to win a relative landslide in KY-05 (Hal Rogers).  Even if Rogers retired and left an open seat, I don't think Democrats would be competitive there.  There's simply too great a gulf between local performance and federal performance.  Same reason Republicans can't even come close to competing in 60% Obama congressional seats in New York (though they can and even win some at the legislative level).

      •  What would account for Grimes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        winning big for the US Senate in districts that you say wouldn't elect any Democrat to the House?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 10:58:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  McConnell (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          He's just not a popular dude in KY. If McConnell were in the House, he'd probably make that district competitive too. He's a weak incumbent relative to where he should be.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 11:17:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Hah you got me there (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Jacob1145

          Grimes' competitiveness in polling so far is kind of amazing just by itself.  It's crazy that Democrats could actually pick up a Senate seat in a state Romney won 61-38, and the possibility conflicts with my general theory that such things are more or less off-limits for Dems in federal races now (except in Dem wave years).  As Le Champignon said, McConnell is a lightning rod and one of the most unpopular senators in the country, but that's not just it.  Democrats have been running competitive Senate races in Kentucky for awhile now (2004, 2008, even 2010 was pretty good considering the GOP wave).  Maybe a bit of that Demosaur spark remains even in federal races.

          I might be writing off KY-06 too fast in that case, but Barr does seem to be a strong enough incumbent to lock this seat down for the most part.  Maybe if it was open again we could make a play for it, but it would still be very hard.

      •  Nah I don't think she wins Rogers' seat (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen

        Wasn't it like 75% Romney?  If she's overpeforming Obama by that much in 1/6 of the commonwealth then McConnell is toast.

        Formerly known as psychicpanda. NC-04

        by JacobNC on Sat Feb 01, 2014 at 11:00:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Rogers' seat is weird (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JacobNC, MichaelNY, James Allen

          Kind of similar to Nick Rahall's in WV-03.  Coal country, Demosaur, and delivered landslides to Romney despite sending a lot of Democrats to the state legislatures.

          Check it out:

          KY-05
          2000: Bush wins 57-42
          2004: Bush wins 61-39
          2008: McCain wins 67-31
          2012: Romney wins 75-23

          So yeah it's definitely moving against us, but look at the 2011 Governor election results where Beshear dominated in a lot of these counties...for instance, Beshear won Floyd County 64-27 (while winning statewide 55-37) making it considerably bluer than the rest of the state.  The next year Romney won it 66-32 (while winning statewide 60-38) making it a good deal redder than the rest of the state, to say nothing of the massive 71 point reversal.

          While typing this comment though I did notice that the district lines of KY-05 are actually drawn to crack the Demosaur block in eastern KY, and mix in some of the historically GOP counties in southern KY.  I had forgotten about that, and thought the district solely based in Demosaur country.  In that case, the district as a whole is considerably harder for Democrats to win.  But Grimes should still to be able to hit some of the good numbers in East KY that Conway did in 2010.  Floyd County, which I mentioned earlier went 66-32 for Romney, went 57-43 for Conway for instance.

          •  Actually the Kentucky map goes back to 1992 (8+ / 0-)

            when Kentucky lost a seat. Dems completely controlled the redistricting process and they thought they had a shot at winning all six seats. Also, southern and eastern KY had a lot of the population losses and stagnation. Kentucky was quite a bit more Democratic then, so they thought they could spread out their own votes enough to overwhelm Republicans in all the seats. In KY-01, instead of simply adding Owensboro, they drew an arm along the Tennessee border to some of the longtime GOP counties. This was because then Rep. William Natcher (D-Bowling Green did not want to lose Owensboro, which would push him into the old 5th. Then another critical mistake was thinking they could defeat then Rep. Jim Bunning (R-Southgate). Instead of concentrating Republicans in NKY, the Louisville suburbs, they drew a river district all the way to Ashland, taking away several Democratic counties in NE Kentucky in the old KY-07, but thought that they could have enough of a balance in the new KY-05 (which was about even from the old KY-05 and KY-07) to win the race, but then Rep. Cal Perkins (D-Leburn), who was already weak, self-destructed and did not run after his bank overdrafts came to light. Dems had a strong challenger, but Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) carried his half of the district by a larger margin that Jim Hays carried the Dem half.

            Within a few years, Dems had dropped KY-01 and KY-02 in 1994, then KY-03 in 1996, and KY-06 in 1998, which the only thing that saved them from being wiped out was that Republicans nominated their absolute weakest possible candidate in KY-04 in then St. Sen. Gex Williams (R-Verona), and Dems had there strongest possible candidate in then Boone County Judge-Executive Ken Lucas. Dems wanted to make the changes they should have in 1992 when the 2002 redistricting came around, but by then the GOP had taken the State Senate, and the new map was a least change map, outside some adjustments to make KY-04 a bit more Dem and KY-06 a bit more GOP. Dems wanted some changes in 2011, but only got a few. KY-05 and KY-06 did get more Democratic on the local level, while Republicans got what they wanted in KY-01, KY-02, and KY-04. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Louisville) got what he wanted as well- Jefferson County is slightly larger than one whole district, and the previous map excluded some precincts on the southern edge of the county- this time they were added back and the strongest Republican precincts in the eastern part of the County went over to KY-04.

            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

            by SouthernINDem on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 03:52:42 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  This explains so much (0+ / 0-)

              Funny that Republicans basically agreed to minimal change maps off of what was initially supposed to be a Dem gerrymander, rather than forcing the issue in court and getting completely new maps.  I had read a lot about the 1992 Dem dummymander in Georgia (in which they tried to eliminate Newt Gingrich, the sole Republican at the time, and ended up with an 8-3 GOP delegation in 1996), but hadn't heard of Democrats being similarly overconfident in Kentucky.

              •  They did the same in many states (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                since the 1994 avalanche was just that and it knocked loose many previously secure regions in the South. Obviously Georgia and Kentucky stand out as probably the worst, but similar maps were drawn throughout almost all of the South like in Alabama and Mississippi. Had Democrats in 1992 known what sort of realignment was in order in and after 1994 and drawn maps accordingly, Dems could have retaken Congress by 2000.

              •  92 map actually conceded one seat (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje

                in the northern Atlanta suburbs. Newt's old district was cut in half, with parts of it being given to Richard Ray and the rest being given to George Darden.

                The district was called the 6th (and using 88 numbers was R+21) but had none of Newt's old district. It took in areas that Ben Jones, George Darden and Ed Jenkins wanted out of their districts.

              •  I have tried two versions on how I would do a (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje

                map that gives Dems a chance at 4 seats. Kentucky discourages county splits, so that way, the two GOP seats are a South-Central seat that goes up to Jessamine County, and one that is a seat that snakes from NKY along the river, around Louisville and then to Hardin County. If you are willing to do splits, the main areas to split to move a few points are to take in Dem precincts in Hardin, Warren, and Madison counties, and then a finger into the river towns of Covington and Newport in NKY.

                "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                by SouthernINDem on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 11:36:44 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  Not nearly as relatively blue downballot as (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen, Skaje

            WV-03. Democrats at every level have declined considerably in coal country in Kentucky while the same has not happened in West Virginia yet. The decline there has been much more geared toward the top of the ballot and gradual further down.

            KY-05 is much more Republican downballot than the 6th across the last several statewide elections. Even if Grimes knocked off McConnell I think she'd still lose it.

  •  WY-Sen/Gov/House VA-Sen/Gov/House (11+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Liz Cheney: I shall return.
    Despite this Darth Vader-esque announcement, she does not specify where or when she will be running again.
  •  Dem Super PACs outraised Reps (14+ / 0-)

    ... by almost three-to-one.

    http://www.usatoday.com/...

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 07:09:07 AM PST

    •  I noticed that Crossroads has been scanty of late (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, Jacob1145, sulthernao

      I guess their donor base was greatly discouraged after 2012 and Rove's embarassing display.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 08:48:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This needs to happen for campaign finance reform (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, lordpet8

      that undoes Citizens United in any real way.  GOP would never give up the third party Super PAC advantage when they had it, but if it becomes a Dem advantage I think they might be more ready to move against it - I would hope enough Dems would then be willing to give up their advantage for the sake of democracy.

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 12:14:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  HI-Gov, HI-01 fundraising (6+ / 0-)

    Just in case anyone thought state senator David Ige was actually posing a threat to Gov. Abercrombie in the Dem primary:

    Neil Abercrombie raised $528K over the past six months, has $2.2 million CoH, and $3.4 million raised to date.
    David Ige raised $56K since the start of his campaign and has only $76K CoH (mostly transferred from his state senate account).

    Ige's campaign manager also quit this week.

    As for HI-01:

    Donna Mercado Kim raised $330K, and has $322K CoH.
    Chang raised $124K, and has $325K CoH.
    Takai raised $102K, and has $178K CoH.
    Anderson raised $107K, and has $149K CoH.
    Espero raised $38K, and has $7K CoH.
    Xian raised $2600, and has $1400 CoH.

    Clearly the last two candidates are non-competitive.  EMILY's List must not think Xian has a chance, and I'm shocked at how badly Espero's fundraising has gone.  I suspect it will come down to Chang or Takai to stop Kim.  Anderson may also be a factor, but his entire political base is outside the district.

  •  Costa Rica President (9+ / 0-)

    Costa Rica is holding its general election today and its being called one of the most important elections the country has seen in a generation, with the outcome having broad consequences for what direction the country is going to go moving forward.  There are several candidates who could possibly win, and if no one gets over 40%, which seems likely, it will go to a runoff in April.

    Johnny Araya is the mayor of San Jose and the candidate from the incumbent PLN party. He's pledging to reduce poverty and strengthen public-private partnership, and is running as the centrist; outgoing PLN president Laura Chinchilla is not very popular though.

    Jose Maria Villata is running as the candidate from the left-wing Broad Front, which is traditionally a minor party but is running strong in this race. Villata is pledging to reduce income inequality, raise corporate taxes, and fight corruption.

    Those two are seen as the front-runners, with Otto Guevara, who heads a socially conservative party based on classical liberalism and libertarianism, and Luis Guillermo Solis, of the centre-left Citizens' Action Party, running slightly behind.  

  •  San Doego Mayor's race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacob1145

    I am interested in San Diego Mayor's race on Feb 11.

    I will vote for David Alvarez (D).

    Many of my neighbors will vote for Kevin Faulconer.

    Nathan Deal would have got most of these votes.

    Some will not vote for a Hispanic candidate because of racism although they will not admit it.

    Others have legitimate questions that have not been answered. The problem is that as a minority politician, Alvarez is not trusted by many.They are not sure how he will deal with mainstream issues.

    One of the biggest issues is education. I am sure this will become a bigger issue down the road for many Hispanic politicians. An unconfirmed story from Vista (a town North of San Diego) is often mentioned. Hispanic board members tried to stop the GATE student (gifted and talented students) program. As long as they did not have a majority on the school board, this program was maintained on a shoe string budget. As soon as the school board had a Hispanic majority, the program was cut. I tried to google this but could not confirm this. It is true that Vista is one of the few cities that do not participate in the gate student program.

    It is true that there is no more money available for the Gate program now. Still schools have gate classes to channel better students on an accelerated course. This is missing in Vista. This is (among other tales) is scaring many Asian neighbors.

  •  What a damper on Super Bowl Sunday (8+ / 0-)

    Philip Seymour Hoffman has passed away at 46

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 12:11:42 PM PST

  •  VA-10 (13+ / 0-)

    Impressive haul in just 3 weeks for John Foust: http://m.timesdispatch.com/...

    Grew up in southern VA. Have worked in 8 states across America. Managed races in VA and DC. Was Deputy Political Director at DGA for the 2012 cycle. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

    by Bharat on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 12:34:19 PM PST

  •  I did race ratings for the senate last week and (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possible Liberal, Darth Jeff, Skaje

    came up with this quick map for how each of the congressional districts might vote in their 2014 US senate elections:
     photo UnitedStatesSenateElections2014byCongressionalDistrictPrediction_zps235b882d.png

    These aren't exactly on the same scale as the full state based ratings, but generally the blue and red are ones I feel pretty good about going with that party while the yellow ones I'm not.

    For reference, here are the results and my estimates for senate by CD for 2008. There's a hell of a lot more blue here but Minnesota and Oregon should almost certainly see Dems pick up a few CDs.
     photo UnitedStatesSenateElection2008by2012CongressionalDistricts_zpsa76affda.png

  •  Parallel universe Maine Senate race (5+ / 0-)

    Suppose Chellie Pingree won the open seat.

    And last week Angus King announced he was running as an Independent, and this week all Dem candidates withdrew.

    King versus Collins straight up, who wins?

    All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

    by tommypaine on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 01:14:11 PM PST

    •  Collins (8+ / 0-)

      Collins is invisible nationally compared to Snowe, but she has an organization that is unrivaled in Maine, is capable of raising vast sums of money, and is owed favors by someone practically everywhere.

      King by contrast has not run a campaign in 16 years, when he ran under public financing, has little experience raising money, and a very insular inner circle(his COS is his former gubernatorial COS).

      King could be a threat, but it would not just require a free shot at Collins - it would require a DSCC takeover of his campaign operation both financially and organizationally as well as a moderately Pro-Democratic environment.

      Even then, in a 2006 or 2008-esque year he would probably be a slight underdog.

      •  I think in 2008 he easily could have (3+ / 0-)

        made it mid single digits, but whether he could have won is certainly an open question. I just doubt he would have ever seriously considered running. The strongest plausible candidate we could have run in 2014 (and probably 2008 as well) was Mike Michaud and even he would have gotten destroyed this year.

        •  There is a Catch-22 with Collins (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Possible Liberal, MichaelNY

          You can't beat her unless you bring her numbers down, but Mainers tend to dislike viscerally negative campaigns. Hence they tend to backfire on those running them.

          Pingree didn't go hard negative and barely made a dent. Allen went hard negative on Iraq, accusing Collins of killing American soldiers by failing to pay for body armor, and it made him toxic.

          What would be needed is for external factors to bring Collins down - as Iraq did to Chafee, and then for a strong opponent to do the rest.

          King could do that, but he could only win in an environment in which other factors had already mortally wounded Collins.

          A mythical 2014 where Romney won, Republicans abolished the filibuster, pushed through national right to work, bombed Iran, and were ending food stamps might well have done it. But I don't see her losing under a Democratic President, because the GOP just won't be in a position to screw up badly enough to sink her.

          •  The only way.. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            she loses is if a serious right wing candidate runs as an independent and splits the vote enough for a Democrat to win a LePage-style victory.

            Personally, I'm a bit mystified about it all. Usually Democrats vote a straight ticket for all federal races - this is why the number of blue-district Republicans is at an all-time low. Yet Collins, who really isn't much of a moderate, somehow continues to rack up enormous margins in a pretty deep-blue state. I feel like it's the reverse of our situation where Demosaur incumbents manage to hold blood-red seats.

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

            by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 03:27:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Dems in Maine (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              generally do vote straight-ticket Dem. Unfortunately, there just aren't that many of them. In Maine, there are far more independents than either Dems or Reps (about 30% Dem, 20% Rep, and 50% Indie), and these Indies are perfectly willing to vote for both Obama and Collins. Heck, they even did so at the same time in 2008!

              This is why the New England states are the most elastic states in the country; because they have so many Independents.

              (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

              by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 05:52:44 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Good question (4+ / 0-)

      Collins probably but King would run her closer than anybody I imagine. He entered the 2012 race with a 62-24 favorable rating. No Democrat in Maine can touch that. Not Pingree or Michaud.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 01:51:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I gotta go with conspiracy on this one (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      In your parallel universe, Angus King is really the only person in Maine who could make it a race. I could see King get in the mid-to-high 40s, but I doubt he'd win.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 05:55:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  It will be interesting to see what role (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    immigration reform plays in GOP primaries for House and Senate races, now that the House has released some of their principles on the issue.

    The filing period in many states is still open, so I wonder if more conservative, anti-reform candidates will get into the GOP primary.

  •  NRCC puts up misleading Sink donation site (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    H/t to this diary by caselaw, now on the rec list:
    http://www.dailykos.com/...

  •  Joan Mondale enters hospice care (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.startribune.com/...

    Thoughts are with the former Vice President and the rest of the Mondale family.

    Vote Democratic. We're not perfect-but they're NUTS! - Barney Frank

    by Minnesota Mike on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 01:59:32 PM PST

  •  California fundraising report resources (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, ehstronghold, lordpet8

    Around The Capitol, a clearinghouse of California political info, has put together a single list of fundraising reports that were due this month, along with some topline info:

    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/...

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 02:24:59 PM PST

    •  Good to see that Harris is raising more money and (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, ehstronghold

      has more COH then Newsom. Harris will probably be more of a powerhouse in a Gubernatorial or Senate election.

    •  Yikes! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Sharon Quirk-Silva's GOP opponent out raised her by almost $100,000.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 05:05:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  This would be a very good race to put some money (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, MichaelNY, CF of Aus, Jorge Harris

        behind.  The Congressional seat here is the 5th least white held by a Republican at 34% NHW in 2010.  Ed Royce holds the seat by outperforming among Asian voters (28% of population in 2010, particularly the Korean fundamentalist Christians, and Vietnamese).  His Korean-American aide Young Kim is the GOP challenger in the AD65 race (electorate 51% NHW, 23% Hispanic, and 22% Asian).

        Now that we have a toehold in the district with Sharon Quirk-Silva's upset win in 2012, we need to hang on to it to build her as a candidate for state Senate and/or U.S. House.  Getting the district's voters used to turning out and casting a ballot for Democrats is huge, and should help us build the party in Orange County.  Building the Democratic party in Orange county offers the potential for a significant bloc of US House seats to become competitive.  The seat is also important to maintaining a Dem supermajority in the CA Assembly (the only way to keep CA from political dysfunction very similar to that seen nationally).  This is a powerful argument to moderate Californians to vote for Democrats for the U.S. House to help eliminate the same dysfunction at the national level.

        You can donate to Quirk-Silva on ActBlue here:

        https://secure.actblue.com/...

        Or see her campaign website here:

        http://www.sharonquirksilva.com/

        Or her Assembly website here:

        http://asmdc.org/...

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 07:58:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  She has the fundraising ties from her ex-boss (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        the Congressman.  But if Donnelly becomes the GOP nominee, Dems at the state and federal level can make serious hay by trying to test their opponents' support for the divisive Donnelly.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 08:01:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Raul Ruiz is a real engine (5+ / 0-)

      he's outraised Nestande over 3-1.  Aguilar is doing okay.  Jerry McNerney looks safe.  Bera is doing well.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 08:07:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  what could FL Republicans have drawn without (6+ / 0-)

    either the fair redistricting law or the VRA? That's a thought experiment I wasted some time on this weekend. The result below actually doesn't cost all that much for minority representation, just Corrine Brown's district basically (hilarious because it shouldn't be a mandated district anyway), but hurts Dem chances considerably.

     photo noFL_zpseb5015e7.jpg

    FL-01 (blue): 33.3% Obama
    FL-02 (green): 45.5% Obama (21% black)
    FL-03 (purple): 45.5% Obama
    FL-04 (red): 45.4% Obama (27.7% black)
    FL-05 (yellow): 40.7% Obama
    FL-06 (teal) 47.1% Obama

     photo centFL_zps3277b458.jpg

    FL-07 (light gray): 72.6% Obama (27.7% white, 25.7% black, 38.4% Hispanic)
    FL-08 (slate blue): 46.2% Obama
    FL-09 (cyan): 49% Obama
    FL-10 (deep pink): 48.7% Obama
    FL-11 (chartreuse): 46% Obama
    FL-12 (cornflower blue): 68.7% Obama (43.3% white, 26.9% black, 24.6% Hispanic)
    FL-13 (dark salmon): 47% Obama
    FL-14 (olive): 50.3% Obama
    FL-15 (dark orange): 45.5% Obama

     photo soFL_zps20025904.jpg

    FL-16 (lime): 48.3% Obama
    FL-17 (dark slate blue): 44.9% Obama
    FL-18 (yellow): 46.9% Obama

     photo seFL_zps402a513c.jpg

    FL-19 (yellow green): 67.6% Obama (47.8% white, 22.8% black, 24.8% Hispanic)
    FL-20 (pink): 47.7% Obama
    FL-21 (dark brown): 68.7% Obama (54.5% white, 21.9% black)
    FL-22 (light brown): 42.8% Obama (79.9% Hispanic)
    FL-23 (light blue): 48.3% Obama (53.7% white, 30.5% Hispanic)
    FL-24 (purple): 73.3% Obama (39.6% white, 31.4% black, 24% Hispanic)
    FL-25 (salmon-pink?): 84.9% Obama (50.8% black by total population, not majority by voting age population)
    FL-26 (gray): 65.4% Obama (23.8% white, 15.2% black, 57.3% Hispanic)
    FL-27 (spring green): 43.1% Obama (73.3% Hispanic)

    Overall, it looks like in FL-20 Allen West would've likely held on to a district, Dems have 5 safe districts in the Southeast where one is barely majority black, one is majority Hispanic, and only one is actually a white majority district, though less than 55% white. Dems have two districts in central Florida where there's a decent chance for a non-white Dem to get elected, but that's about it, aside from the open FL-14, which is 1 point less Obama than the district that was actually drawn. Republicans get a likely 19, with Democrats at 7, and maybe FL-14 going for Alex Sink.

    Damn, looks like some of my images were cut off. Here's a bonus one:

     photo southfl_zps31d25302.jpg

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 02:29:19 PM PST

    •  Wow that is an aggressive map (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje

      but you've made Ted Yoho very vulnerable in the 3rd with all those Blue Dog areas and the 2nd is barely worse off. He and Southerland could both lose even in a neutral environment. Nelson likely won both districts by close to double digits and Sink likely did in 2010. You could fix this by unpacking the 1st a lot more though that requires the panhandle to have two horizontal strips. You also might want to strengthen the 23rd at the expense of the 17th.

      The problem with trying to go 20-7 in Florida is that so many parts of the state are trending Democratic and a 49% Obama '08 district just isn't safe. I can't imagine FL Republicans wouldn't have kept the 5th district vote sink since it allows you to make all the districts outside of southeast Florida fairly secure. Anyway, without the fair districts amendment I think the only differences that matter are how they draw the 2nd and 18th with the first one being taken off the table and the second electing Alan West. They might have tried to keep the 22nd competitive in a way where Rooney stays in the 18th instead.

      •  Yoho maybe (0+ / 0-)

        but I don't think we could win a district in Northern Florida worse than the current FL-02 in a neutral environment. Both of those are about 1.5% more Republican than the current FL-02 is.

        The only 49% Obama district is a suburban one, and Democrats have trouble even matching Obama in most suburbs. By the end of the decade it might lean Dem by a tad but not before then.

        Florida Democrats have shown an impressive inability to win anything swingy 90% of the time, with notable exceptions like Pat Murphy and that special legislative election a bit ago. All of these none-safe Dem districts are less Democratic than those.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 02:58:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I see a lot of 46-47-48-49 Obama% districts (0+ / 0-)

      Considering the growth Florida is experiencing, I see this being a dummymander by the end of the decade.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 04:42:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  the only districts that were 46% or so (0+ / 0-)

        in 2008 and are anywhere near competitive now (in reality) are the Cuban ones, and I made those both safely Republican in this map. I think some of them could become competitive, but I don't think that ruins it for them. Republicans don't lose many ancestrally Republican suburban districts that are still 50-50, and these aren't even that, yet.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 05:28:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Suggestion for a minor improvement (0+ / 0-)

      Why not have the first district grab Gadsden County from the second, and have the second go a bit further into Okaloosa County? It doesn't change how the map looks by very much, but pushes the second a couple percentage points to the right and further from the periphery of competitiveness; the first district has ample Republican votes to spare anyway.

      •  I definitely could've gone a bit farther with a (0+ / 0-)

        few districts, but I did this pretty quickly and didn't want to waste too much of my time. You're right, though. It takes the 2nd down to 43% Obama, definitely safe Republican. The 1st doesn't even hit 36% from absorbing Gadsden.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 05:53:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I like your 20th district (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I've drawn districts like that when I do Republican gerrymanders of Florida. It's kind of fun to draw districts like that, despite the fact that they're horrendously ugly.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 05:58:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Christie aide Christina Genovese Renna (8+ / 0-)

    quietly resigned Friday. She is one of the 18 people issued subpoenas.

    http://www.politico.com/...

  •  The Broncos are doing poorly tonight. (6+ / 0-)

    They got a safety in the first 10 seconds!

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 04:48:36 PM PST

    •  Poorly (5+ / 0-)

      is understating it as of this moment.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 04:56:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

        It's like they are overcome by their nerves.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 05:04:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, WisJohn, kurykh

          seriously thought the Broncos and Peyton Manning would be doing waaay better than this seeing as how the Seahawks only beat the 49ers thanks to Kaperenick not knowing how to throw something that didn't get intercepted and some lucky calls from the refs.

          Unless the Broncos can turn this around in the 2nd half, Richard Sherman will have earned the right to proclaim to the whole world he's the best fucking football player ever while Eye of the Tiger is blaring over the stadium PA system.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 05:11:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, and it sadly made the game unexciting (0+ / 0-)

            the commercials felt off this year too.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 07:52:39 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  NV-AG, NV-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, gabjoh

    Catherine Cortez Masto has signed onto a brief defending "natural" marriage. This goes way beyond her previous statements of believing her duties oblige her to defend the law in court. It's a good thing she's term-limited this year, good riddance.

    http://www.sltrib.com/...

    25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Sun Feb 02, 2014 at 05:56:16 PM PST

  •  In regards to the massive argument upthread (13+ / 0-)

    about ME-SEN:

    No offense to those involved.  Just an observation that correcting wrong people on the internet could be a full time job.

  •  hillary clinton... (3+ / 2-)
    Recommended by:
    Lost and Found, Setsuna Mudo, Sylv
    Hidden by:
    scoop, despaminate3000
    It’s so much more fun to watch FOX when it’s someone else being blitzed & sacked! #SuperBowl
    twitter...
  •  Judges (5+ / 0-)

    No new nominations or confirmations this week, but Jeff Flake and John McCain have finally lifted the holds they had on six nominees for the District Court of Arizona. That's six vacancies out of a court of 13, or 43% vacant. Hopefully they'll get moved out of committee quickly and then voted on, along with the 29 other judges languishing on the floor.

    25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 03, 2014 at 02:43:45 AM PST

    •  One of those nominees, Rosemary Marquéz (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bythesea, Setsuna Mudo, askew

      Has been waiting a hearing since 2011.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 03, 2014 at 02:48:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Note that McCain (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      Had provided blue slips on 5 of these nominees last fall and that the 6th was nominated Dec 19th, 2013.

      This is really about Flake.

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Mon Feb 03, 2014 at 11:35:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  McCain withheld his blue slip on Marquéz (0+ / 0-)

        until Obama nominated 4 other judges for the same court in September, for no discernible reason.

        25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

        by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 03, 2014 at 02:38:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I can think of multiple reasons (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          not all nefarious, some even statesmanlike, why he might do that.  Not everything is obstruction for the sake of obstruction.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Mon Feb 03, 2014 at 03:04:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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