Minnesota has two very blue cities, Minneapolis and St. Paul. The cities are surrounded by inner-ring suburbs that are not quite as blue but very much lean Democratic (60%+ Obama in 2008). However, most of the outer-ring suburbs are red and the exurban areas in northern Anoka County, southern Dakota County, and Scott and Carver Counties are some of the reddest in the state. Outstate, there are light blue areas in the northeast (ancestrally democratic but becoming more Republican over time) and the southeast (Rochester is ancestrally Republican but becoming more Democratic), and red areas in the western part of the state, except for a few counties that border “large” cities in North Dakota such as Fargo and Grand Forks. There is the occasional blue-leaning area in western Minnesota that is an Indian Reservation (tend to be in northwest Minnesota) or ancestrally Democratic farm areas in west-central Minnesota.
With this background, I wanted to see if it would be possible to draw an 8-0 Dem map by ignoring all of the parochial rules in the state. Those rules tend to include not splitting either Minneapolis or St. Paul, and not putting northeast Minnesota and northwest Minnesota in the same district, partly due to conflicting economic interests. Specifically, logging and mining interests in the northeast conflict with farming interests in the northwest. I ignore all of the rules and come up with the following 8-0 map.
Minneapolis & St. Paul
Southern Suburbs
MN-01: Blue (54.2% O, 43.7% M), Likely D
John Kline lives here. He’s very conservative but plays up moderation at home in his current blue-trending district (50.5% Obama district). Therefore he’s a tough incumbent but this district is nothing like his current one. It contains blue-trending Rochester and liberal parts of St. Paul and blue-trending rural southeast counties. Democrats would have a better chance of winning if they ran a solid Democrat from Rochester rather than a super liberal person from St. Paul.
MN-02: Green (54.6% O, 43.5% M), Likely D
Erik Paulsen lives here, and he is pretty much like John Kline; very conservative but plays up moderation. However, his current district is pretty safe R (although 51% Obama) because it is ancestrally Republican and contains some very red western suburbs in Hennepin and Carver counties. The district contains very red areas in Scott and Le Sueur Counties but it stays quite blue because it includes Northfield in the southeast, the blue suburbs of Minnetonka, Richfield, and northern Dakota County, and then has an ugly arm to get very blue Longfellow and Seward neighborhoods of Minneapolis. Democrats would have a better chance of winning if they ran a solid Democrat from the blue suburbs rather than a super liberal person from Minneapolis.
Northern Suburbs
MN-03: Magenta (55.4% O, 42.7% M), Safe D
This district is a travesty in terms of communities of interest. Very liberal southern and southwestern Minneapolis along with liberal St. Louis Park and Hopkins merge with conservative western Hennepin county and very conservative areas to the west and northwest, west of St. Cloud even! There is no incumbent here and Democrats could get a solid liberal to represent the area and be from St. Louis Park or southern Minneapolis, or even Edina. The Republicans don’t have any real moderate Republican areas (except Edina and Plymouth) here, so they are likely to nominate a loony toon incapable of getting crossover support.
MN-04: Red (55.8% O, 42.2% M), Safe D
Betty McCollum and Michele Bachmann both live here, but Bachmann is retiring. McCollum is sensitive to changes in her district, and this is very different from her current district, but she would survive. Cuts out liberal areas of parts of St. Paul but does keep other St. Paul precincts, most of Washington County, then heads north to grab conservative areas and liberal parts of Aitkin County.
MN-05: Yellow (55.3% O, 42.4% M), Safe D
This district is also incumbent-less, because I believe Keith Ellison lives in North Minneapolis (if he lives in this district he can run here and probably be fine). Like MN-03, the district contains inelastic very liberal and very conservative areas so it will be very polarized. We’d need to make sure turnout doesn’t drop too much in non-presidential years. Liberal areas of southeastern St. Paul combined with downtown and Northeast Minneapolis, then goes north to grab some northern inner-ring blue suburbs before continuing further north to grab some very conservative areas.
MN-06: Teal (53.7% O, 44.4% M), Lean D
Extremely liberal north Minneapolis is here and I worry about turnout in that area, which is critical to keeping the seat blue. Perhaps Keith Ellison has the charisma and machine to drive turnout here in midterm elections, because the district needs the voters of north Minneapolis to stay blue. North Minneapolis combined with liberal suburbs to the northwest, and then takes in conservative Maple Grove and very conservative areas northwest from there before also capturing blue-leaning St. Cloud. It’s the least white district drawn, at 80% VAP.
MN-07: Gray (48.6% O, 48.9% M), Lean D with Peterson or Walz, TossUp otherwise
Collin Peterson and Tim Walz both live here. The red exurban areas are out of this district and in MN-03, and it’s 50/50 downballot. Both Peterson and Walz are strong incumbents that pay attention to farming interests, which would be critical in this district. Walz has represented most of the southern part of the district while Peterson would better represent the northern part. Peterson could have a leg up because of his seniority, but he’s been on the retirement watch list for awhile and I doubt he’d really want to introduce himself to a lot of new voters in the southeastern part of the district. If neither guy ran, we’d have at least a 50/50 shot because there are several areas that are democratic down-ballot. The district is much bluer than Peterson’s current district, and only slightly more red than Walz’s current district.
MN-08: Slate Blue (54.5% O, 43.2% M), Safe D
This iteration of MN-08 is more blue than Rick Nolan’s current version, which was 53.1% Obama in 2008. Importantly, it’s very democratic down-ballot, at 57.2% Dem for average votes. Nolan lives here and the district stays quite blue by putting conservative counties that are in the south in the existing iteration in other districts and moving west to grab Indian Reservations. Nolan’s a good fit for the district.
So there you have it…should be 7-0-1 but with current incumbents, it should be 8-0.