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Climate forecasters say that 2015 could be the warmest year ever, Raw Story Reports. The study, presented at the National Academy of Sciences Monday, built on other work to show that we have a 76% chance of an El Nino event happening sometime later this year. The potential consequence, combined with the phenomena of man-made global warming, could be the warmest year on record since we started keeping track back in the 1800's.

Although they occur in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, the effects of El Niño events can reverberate around the globe, wreaking havoc with typical weather patterns. El Niños increase the likelihood for California to be pummeled by Pacific storm systems, for example, while leaving eastern Australia at greater risk of drought. Because they are characterized by higher than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, and they add heat to the atmosphere, El Niño events also tend to boost global average temperatures.

By acting in concert with manmade greenhouse gases, which are also warming the planet, calendar years featuring a strong El Niño event, such as 1998, can more easily set all-time high temperature records.

So instead of the extreme drought that is affecting California right now, we could see them getting extreme rain next year. In the light of these forecasts, it is irresponsible of our politicians to cut back on funding for long-range weather research. Our research needs to be expanded and improved so that we can better understand the weather patterns of this planet.

Larry Bell, writing in Forbes, claims that we are on a path to global cooling. He quotes a Russian scientist as follows:

But if you thought global warming was scary, here’s an alternative to consider.  Some really smart scientists predict that Planet Earth is now entering a very deep and prolonged cooling period attributable to 100-year record low numbers of sunspots. Periods of reduced sunspot activity correlate with increased cloud-forming influences of cosmic rays. More clouds tend to make conditions cooler, while fewer often cause warming.

Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov who heads Russia’s prestigious Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg predicts that: “after the maximum of solar Cycle-24, from approximately 2014, we can expect the start of the next bicentennial cycle of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 2055 plus or minus 11 years” (the 19th to occur in the past 7,500 years).

Dr. Abdussamatov points out that Earth has experienced such occurrences five times over the last 1,000 years, and that: “A global freeze will come about regardless of whether or not industrialized countries put a cap on their greenhouse gas emissions. The common view of Man’s industrial activity is a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a misinterpretation of cause and effect.”

While solar output typically goes through 11-year cycles with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak, we are currently approaching the peak of “Cycle-24” with numbers running at  less than half of those observed during other 20th century peaks.

The two patterns, however, are not mutually exclusive. It could well be that the solar activity could be accounting for the record cold and snowfall that we see in the eastern half of this country as well as other parts of the world. And it could well be that man-made climate change is responsible for the record flooding in the UK as well as the extreme drought in California, among other events. Assuming both scenarios are true, then we are entering a period of extreme climate havoc over the next several decades.

Speaking in Indonesia, John Kerry blasted Climate Change deniers as follows:

Climate change may be the world's "most fearsome" weapon of mass destruction and urgent global action is needed to combat it, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Sunday, comparing those who deny its existence or question its causes to people who insist the Earth is flat.

In a speech to Indonesian students, civic leaders and government officials in Jakarta, Kerry laid into climate change skeptics, accusing them of using shoddy science and scientists to delay measures needed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases – at the risk of imperiling the planet. He also went after those who dispute who is responsible for such emissions, arguing that everyone and every country must take responsibility and act immediately.

"We simply don't have time to let a few loud interest groups hijack the climate conversation," Kerry said, referring to what he called "big companies" that "don't want to change and spend a lot of money" to act to reduce the risks. He later singled out big oil and coal concerns as the primary offenders.

"We should not allow a tiny minority of shoddy scientists and science and extreme ideologues to compete with scientific facts," Kerry told the audience gathered at a U.S. Embassy-run American Center in a Jakarta shopping mall. "Nor should we allow any room for those who think that the costs associated with doing the right thing outweigh the benefits."

"The science is unequivocal, and those who refuse to believe it are simply burying their heads in the sand," Kerry said. "We don't have time for a meeting anywhere of the Flat Earth Society."

But if John Kerry is serious about his remarks, then let him back up his words with action by recommending denial of the Keystone XL Pipeline to President Obama. Should he fail to do so, that will mean that he does not believe his own rhetoric and that he is simply pandering to those of us who are concerned about our impact on the planet and the climate.

Originally posted to Stop the Police State! on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 02:42 PM PST.

Also republished by DK GreenRoots and Climate Change SOS.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Larry's Bell is cracked (11+ / 0-)

    and Liberty has nothing to do with it.

    BOM.gov.au is predicting Pacific warming but not an El Nino. I think we'll see a weak El Nino which will not help with the California drought, but I hope I'm wrong. It's a tough call.

    The global cooling stuff, however, is embarrassing.

    “Industry does everything they can and gets away with it almost all the time, whether it’s the coal industry, not the subject of this hearing, or water or whatever. They will cut corners, and they will get away with it. " Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D, WVa

    by FishOutofWater on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 02:57:23 PM PST

  •  Last I Heard We've Been Having Reduced Sunlight (9+ / 0-)

    for several years already but the greenhouse gas is blasting through it as well as the trend that had persisted till a few decades ago of global glaciers slowly increasing as we head toward the next ice age caused by rotation of the direction of the earth's axis over some 24,000 years which should be giving us visible cooling not warming.

    So we have two natural forces moving us toward what should be a relatively nearby ice age and yet we're having our hottest years ever.

    --And even if we canceled the heating, the ocean and large lakes are still soaking up CO2 and all the effects of the resulting acidification on sea life and the global food chain will not change. In fact cooling would make water more absorbent for CO2.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 02:58:18 PM PST

  •  Question (0+ / 0-)
    It could well be that the solar activity could be accounting for the record cold and snowfall that we see in the eastern half of this country as well as other parts of the world. And it could well be that man-made climate change is responsible for the record flooding in the UK as well as the extreme drought in California, among other events.
    What mechanism would produce all these effects?
    •  The point: (4+ / 0-)

      Even if the Russian scientist is right about the sun cooling off, man-made climate change is still a reality.

      "The cost of liberty is less than the price of repression." - W.E.B. Du Bois Be informed. Fight the Police State.

      by Eternal Hope on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 03:58:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  If the Russian Scientist Is Right ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... then the more CO2 emissions the better.

        •  Doesn't follow in my book. (5+ / 0-)

          Although I have heard that argument. Based on what we know about the warm bubble pushing the Polar Vortex down south, these polar vortexes would become commonplace and make this year's snowstorms in the Eastern US look like a walk in the park.

          "The cost of liberty is less than the price of repression." - W.E.B. Du Bois Be informed. Fight the Police State.

          by Eternal Hope on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 04:08:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Polar Vortex, Polar Schmortex (0+ / 0-)

            This is just a new name for a familiar phenomenon, wherein the jet stream goes very far north in the Pacific, bringing unseasonable warmth to Alaska (and the Bering and Berents seas), then curves downward through Canada into the continental United States, bringing unseasonably frigid weather farther south than it usually goes.

            Anyone who grew up east of Idaho is familiar with so-called "polar vortexes." They used to be called "arctic air masses" or "Canadian clippers."

            Give a new name to an old thing, and the people who never opened a history book, are too young to know, or too distracted or neurotic to remember will get all scared. But the reality is that these "polar vortexes" (ha!) have been a regular feature of American weather forever.

            And so has volatility in general. The guy who started the Weather Channel didn't become a billionaire off it for nothing. The weather has always been the most dramatic free show in America. Always!

            •  I'm not arguing that point. (3+ / 0-)

              But it is settled fact that there is a warm bubble that is pushing cold air a lot further south than it normally would have, creating record cold for the east US and record heat for Alaska.

              "The cost of liberty is less than the price of repression." - W.E.B. Du Bois Be informed. Fight the Police State.

              by Eternal Hope on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 04:34:51 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It's A Cold Winter in the East (0+ / 0-)

                That's all.

                In December, I was in Burns, Oregon, in the SE part of the state. They had a record overnight low, -30. The prior record was -28, set in the 1930s. In late July, I was in the same area and it was 105 on my car thermometer. A swing of 135 degrees.

                Climate change? Uh-uh. The area has always been famous for temperature extremes. And that -30? Well, I seriously doubt anyone had a thermometer in the winter of 1878, when the cattle froze standing up, and homesteaders were driven out and some ranchers went bankrupt.

                We live in a country whose weather has always been dramatic. It's only new to people who don't study any history.

                •  But that's anecdotal. (0+ / 0-)

                  There is a big difference between something that is anecdotal and something that is science. I don't have all the answers, but when you read the writings of the people who actually study these things for a living, we find that man-made climate change is seriously distorting the weather and making the planet warmer. Now we find some other evidence -- from the Russian scientist who studies the sun for a living. What he finds is that the sun is emitting less heat, meaning that it might be cooler. So when you hear two pieces of data like that, the responsible thing to do is to harmonize the science. And so when I look at all the extreme cold weather in the East US and all the extreme droughts in CA, then to me, it is obvious that both factors need to be considered.

                  There is a big difference between science and anecdote. When you do the latter, there are a lot more silly errors floating around. That is why you see all these crazy rumors floating around email and Facebook and other places. But in science, you actually have to do experiments and then have other people critique your work before it ever gets published. And then other people try to do your experiments to see if they can be replicated. And then if your experiments are wrong, it goes back to the drawing board and you have to start over again. That is why it is a lot more reliable to rely on science than it is to rely on anecdotal evidence.

                  "The cost of liberty is less than the price of repression." - W.E.B. Du Bois Be informed. Fight the Police State.

                  by Eternal Hope on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 06:39:37 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I Agree About Anecdote (0+ / 0-)

                    I treated the weather in Burns this last year as anecdotal. And I think ALL the weather everywhere this year is equally anecdotal. When the AGW believers cite the weather as evidence, I call bullshit. Not only is weather not climate, but this year's weather in the U.S. isn't even unusual, which makes all the blather about the "polar vortex," etc., look all the more ridiculous to me.

                    •  Nope. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      BlueDragon

                      The National Academy of Sciences, which made these predictions and finding, is a scientific organization. The people who gave this presentation did the research, had it double and triple checked, revised it, and then presented their findings. Nothing anecdotal about any of that.

                      "The cost of liberty is less than the price of repression." - W.E.B. Du Bois Be informed. Fight the Police State.

                      by Eternal Hope on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 07:48:39 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Maybe I Missed It (0+ / 0-)

                        Really, maybe I did. Could you maybe give me a link to where the National Academy of Sciences has linked this year's U.S. weather to the climate change hypothesis?

                        •  Yes, in the article I presented: (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          BlueDragon
                          By acting in concert with manmade greenhouse gases, which are also warming the planet, calendar years featuring a strong El Niño event, such as 1998, can more easily set all-time high temperature records.
                          In the first link.

                          And don't take my word for it; the NAS has an entire section on climate change including stuff linking this year's weather to climate change. And if you read FishOutoftheWater's diary, he explains the physical reasons why we can link this year's weather to climate change.

                          "The cost of liberty is less than the price of repression." - W.E.B. Du Bois Be informed. Fight the Police State.

                          by Eternal Hope on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 09:24:51 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

      •  He's a denier. Look at his comments and HRs. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wu ming, BlueDragon

        Links to known deniers. Playing games here. Concern troll.

        "The law is meant to be my servant and not my master, still less my torturer and my murderer." -- James Baldwin. July 11, 1966.

        by YucatanMan on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 08:52:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  CONFUSION. (6+ / 0-)

      We are at the peak of a weak solar cycle. There's no way to decipher WTF that author was talking about.

      “Industry does everything they can and gets away with it almost all the time, whether it’s the coal industry, not the subject of this hearing, or water or whatever. They will cut corners, and they will get away with it. " Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D, WVa

      by FishOutofWater on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 03:59:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  To be honest: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Calamity Jean, BlueDragon

      I don't know how solar cooling and man-made climate change interacting with each other would affect the weather patterns over a long period of time. For 2015, it seems that the heating patterns will burn through any solar cooling that takes place if the El Nino event happens as predicted.

      "The cost of liberty is less than the price of repression." - W.E.B. Du Bois Be informed. Fight the Police State.

      by Eternal Hope on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 04:02:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  When you don't know ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... it's best to be very circumspect about guesses, and to be as rigorous as possible. It reminds me of something I told one of my doctors a long time ago when he told me he wasn't sure what was behind some crap I was going through. I said, you know what? The best doctors are the ones who aren't afraid to say what you just said to me, that they don't know.

      •  When you don't know ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... it's best to be very circumspect about guesses, and to be as rigorous as possible. It reminds me of something I told one of my doctors a long time ago when he told me he wasn't sure what was behind some crap I was going through. I said, you know what? The best doctors are the ones who aren't afraid to say what you just said to me, that they don't know.

  •  Take action today and help change things. (4+ / 0-)
    We Drew the Line before. Let's Drop a Line Now!
     

    Let's send a clarion call! No KXL

    A 30-day public comment period began on February 5, 2014 and will close on March 7, 2014. During this period, members of the public and other interested parties are encouraged to submit comments on the national interest determination to  http://www.regulations.gov/... . Comments are not private and will be made public.

    Comments may also be mailed directly to:

        U.S. Department of State
        Bureau of Energy Resources, Room 4843
        Attn: Keystone XL Public Comments
        2201 C Street, NW
        Washington, DC 20520

    If we really want to straighten out all this crap we really need to think about shit - Holy Shit.

    by John Crapper on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 03:52:28 PM PST

  •  Let's have him say this in the US rather... (3+ / 0-)

    than a Jakarta shopping mall.

    We have it within our power to make the world over again ~ Thomas Paine

    by occupystephanie on Sun Feb 16, 2014 at 03:55:45 PM PST

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