AD-44 is one of only three Obama districts held by Republicans in the California Assembly and the second most Democratic out of those three (AD-40 is the most Democratic, at 53% Obama). It includes Oxnard, Port Hueneme, Camarillo, Thousand Oaks, Moorpark and Westlake Village, as well as unincorporated areas, El Rio (near Oxnard), Santa Rosa Valley and Oak Park (near Thousand Oaks). Democrats hold a 2% registration edge, which is not big, but it's good enough to win the seat. Assembly Democrats want to defend their two-thirds majority, and this seat would be supplement to maintaining or padding that majority. Republicans will certainly defend this district heavily, as they don't want to sink even further down in the legislature. More over the flip.
The terrain
There are other incorporated cities here, but Oxnard and Thousand Oaks combined make over half of the electorate. Thousand Oaks holds the largest share of Republican votes, but also holds the largest share of Democratic votes in the district as well, so it's about as critical as Oxnard for Democrats. The whole of Oxnard is not in this district, as the northern part of the city and the harbor area are in AD-35, which is anchored on Santa Barbara. This works to the advantage of Democrats, since that part of the city leans quite a few points less Democratic (about 10%) than the portion that is contained in AD-44.
Cities |
PVI |
Camarillo |
R+4 |
Moorpark |
R+2 |
Oxnard |
D+21 |
Port Hueneme |
D+12 |
Thousand Oaks |
R+3 |
Westlake Village |
R+4 |
And just for the reference, the PVI's of the CDPs (census designated places)
CDP |
PVI |
Lake Sherwood |
R+23 |
El Rio |
D+25 |
Oak Park |
D+2 |
Nyland Acres |
D+30 |
Santa Rosa Vly. |
R+18 |
The candidates
There are two Republicans running for the seat and one Democrat. The Democrat is Thousand City Councilwoman, Jacqui Irwin. Irwin has received the endorsements of Supervisor Kathy Long (Camarillo) and Supervisor John Zaragoza (Oxnard), two of the Democratic power brokers in the county, represented large portions of the district. There were other Democrats in the running, community college board member, Bernardo Perez and Jason Hodge, an Oxnard Harbor commissioner, but they both have dropped out of the race. According Timm Herdt from the VC Star, Perez dropped his bid after speaking with Assembly Speaker John Perez. After a Democrat failed to make the top two in CA-31 last year, leadership is paying more attention at all levels to assure that Democrats don't get shut out of winnable races and in AD-44, it seems like team effort has paid off.
There have been some questions about Irwin's party affiliation, which she answered when asked by local blogger, Brian Dennert, but her previous endorsements of Elton Gallegly and Tony Strickland have giving many Democrats pause about her candidacy, but it seems as if the establishment has lined up behind her. If Irwin can break 50% in the open primary, she will be in a strong position to take the seat in November. Even without breaking 50%, Irwin still has an advantage in being able to run a general election campaign early on. Irwin also out raised her likely GOP opponent in the last quarter by nearly 10k, so that is another good sign for her candidacy.
On the Republican side, the candidates are Pastor Rob McCoy of Calvary Chapel in Newbury Park and Port Hueneme City Councilwoman Sylvia Munoz Schnopp. Another candidate, local political operative, Sean Paroski, dropped out of the race and will be McCoy's campaign manager. McCoy and Schnopp did not file finance reports at the end of the quarter, but that should change soon, since Republicans will have to line up behind someone in order not lose this seat. According to a local political writer from the Acorn, Schnopp will get the Republican endorsement, because Republicans do not want a pastor in Sacramento. That may be more about Republicans lacking confidence that McCoy can retain the seat. McCoy touts endorsements from Rick Perry and Rand Paul, not exactly the sort of names to drop in a light blue district (Paul is even coming to headline a fundraiser). It seems that this could turn into an establishment vs. evangelical affair for Republicans, as McCoy recently stated on a religious radio show that "We're mobilizing the sleeping giant of evangelical churches”. Against McCoy, this seat would be at least lean Democratic, as he seems quite conservative for the district and against Schnopp, the rating will all depend on how much money she can raise. Schnopp was a Strickland surrogate in 2012, so he may back her (he was backing Paroski) which would help her with some establishment support, but I just don't see her being much of a factor at this point, as McCoy is getting big name support, even though it's not establishment and that equals money. Irwin has a great geographic advantage, having been elected multiple times in Thousand Oaks, and a Democrat running in a marginal seat can be greatly helped by being from the more Republican leaning area of said seat. Now, let's get down to numbers
The numbers
AD-44 |
Percentages |
Presidential |
|
Obama |
52.37% |
Romney |
45.51% |
US Senate |
|
Feinstein |
54.42% |
Emken |
45.58% |
State Senate |
|
Brownley |
51.42% |
Strickland |
48.58% |
State Assembly |
|
MacEnery |
47.27% |
Gorell |
52.73% |
This district was carried by Democrats on nearly every level in 2012, with Dianne Feinstein winning it by the largest margin. Despite having no money and no presence in the district, Eileen MacEnery managed 47% against an incumbent, which demonstrates how strong a presence Democrats have in the district. In a midterm election, that number certainly can drop off, but with statewide races at the top of the ticket and Jerry Brown headed for a possibly large victory, turnout might be good enough for a Democrat to win AD-44. If Brown gets 60% statewide, he might get about 52-54% in AD-44, which would bode well down ballot. Also, Julia Brownley will be in a competitive race and that help drive turnout in Democratic base areas, as we have a very energetic local party operation here in Ventura County.
Cities |
Turnout |
|
|
Camarillo |
19.52% |
45.00% |
55.00% |
Moorpark |
8.94% |
43.00% |
57.00% |
Oxnard |
17.07% |
72.00% |
28.00% |
Port Hueneme |
3.51% |
60.00% |
40.00% |
Thousand Oaks |
37.10% |
45.00% |
55.00% |
Westlake Village |
2.76% |
43.00% |
57.00% |
Remainder |
11.10% |
47.00% |
53.00% |
|
100.00% |
50.12% |
49.88% |
What we have is a very narrow Democratic win in the general, which pretty much will require no room for error on these benchmarks and those pretty much the turnout numbers that will be necessary. Irwin will have to have a strong presence across each part of the district, because every area counts, even the CDPs, despite how small they are. If Schnopp makes the top two, she could possibly get an edge of Port Hueneme, which could make a difference in a very close race, so Irwin must have a strong presence there, but that again depends on what sort of fundraiser Schnopp turns out to be. This race is just starting and the open primary is still months off, so there is a long way too go in predicting what will happen in November, but at this point, Irwin is in the driver's seat.