Skip to main content

Hi, everybody. This started as a response to SCDem4's "Complete Analysis of the 2014 Senate Elections" diary, but it got too long, so I started a new diary. All of these are quite preliminary thoughts, for whatever they're worth, and I'll look forward to clarification about whether Republican primaries in South Carolina have runoffs or not. More below the squiggle.

AL-Sen: Uncontested R win.

AK-Sen: Tossup, and I'm not willing to tilt it right now. I also don't trust any Alaska polling after they muffed the Stevens-Begich race so badly.

AR-Sen: Tossup/Tilt R. Cotton is vulnerable, and Pryor, despite his mistake on the minimum wage (probably thanks to Walmart) is a very good politician, effective campaigner, and personally conservative Christian, but the heavy red shift of the state may be too much for him to overcome. However, if the climate shifts Democratic, not only could he win, but the Democrats could pick up one or two House seats in the state.

CO-Sen: Likely D: A wave would be needed to defeat Udall, and even that might not be enough, as Buck, who seems to have the inside track so far on the Republican nomination, was defeated by a little-known only semi-incumbent senator in 2010.

DE-Sen: Safe D. What a difference from the likely outcome at the beginning of the 2008 Delaware Senate election!

GA-Sen: Lean-R. One of the most interesting races in the country. It's hard to rate until the Republican primary is over, but on a preliminary basis, on the fairly likely chance that Broun or Gingrey win the primary and say a bunch of crazy shit, I get the sense that Nunn is a very smart candidate and likely to get crossover votes from moderate conservatives. However, she is also a rookie candidate, so on the face of it, Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes is a more seasoned and proven winner. Nevertheless, Nunn's non-partisan private sector leadership and still highly respected name carry a lot of weight across a significant swath of Georgia politics and political contributors. So on a preliminary basis, I rate this Lean-R, just out of an abundance of caution, but as the campaign develops, this might be as good a shot for a Democratic pickup as KY-Sen.

HI-Sen: Safe D, Lean-Hanabusa in the primary. Hawaii polling sucks, but it tends to understate the votes of Japanese-Hawaiian women, and while this primary is not mainly based on ethnicity, it does stand to reason that Hanabusa will get greater support from fellow women of Japanese descent. And the latest poll I saw showed her up by 8. So I think she has a good chance to win. I won't lose sleep either way, and it would make sense for whoever loses to run for another position in the future, especially if the loss isn't ignominious (if one candidate loses by 20%, that's probably the end, but I doubt that will happen; however, with Hawaii elections, you really never know).

ID-Sen: Safe R.

IL-Sen: Safe D.

IA-Sen: Likely D, verging on Safe. The only way a Republican wins this seat, short of some unforeseen disaster from Braley, is if conditions in the country turn calamitous. Otherwise, I really don't see it.

KS-Sen: Race to Watch. I'm predicting a Likely loss in the primary for Roberts, but that won't necessarily make the race Safe-R, because his main opponent is quite extreme, and there are a lot of moderate Republican voters in Kansas who have in the past been willing to support a moderate Democrat against an extreme Republican. I will watch this race with a lot of interest, to see if the unpopularity of Governor Brownback ever gets mirrored in the Senate race. So far it hasn't, but the elements are there to make this perhaps the only possible shocking Democratic Senate turnover in the country (because I think that wins in KY and GA would not be shocks).

KY-Sen: Tossup/Tilt R. I'm still tilting this race slightly Republican because of the lean of the state in Federal elections and the fact that McConnell is Minority Leader and has more money than Croesus. But this may be an almost 50/50 race. If McConnell were to lose the primary, I'd re-rate it Likely-R and then watch for further data, but Lundergan Grimes is such a good and appealing candidate - seemingly with no personal weaknesses that can be exploited, other than the fact that she is a Democrat and can be tied to that extent to the locally unpopular President Obama, but also to the extremely popular Governor Beshear - that I definitely wouldn't count her out, regardless of who wins that Republican primary. I rate the Republican primary Lean-McConnell, anyway, because of money (even though Bevin is personally wealthy), the power of incumbency, and some exposure of hypocrisy by Bevin.

LA-Sen: Tossup/Tilt D. Landrieu is a great campaigner, and I think there probably will be just enough Louisiana voters who believe she's working on their behalf, but a lot is dependent on how the economy does between now and November.

MA-Sen: Safe D.

ME-Sen: Safe R. Bellows has absolutely no chance of beating an incumbent Republican who is perceived by Maine voters to be moderate and enjoys the majority support of Democrats, independents, and Republicans. It doesn't matter how much you or I like Bellows' politics (and hell, I'm personally a real ACLU type, except on Citizens United, for whatever that's worth - nothing, really, in this context); she can't win and deserves credit for deciding to run at all.

MI-Sen: Lean D. Michigan polling tends to be pretty bad, but the lean of the state is Democratic, and Land has some weaknesses that can be attacked. In the end, I doubt this will be that close. Peters by a margin of 5-8.

MN-Sen: Safe D. What a difference 6 years make!

MS-Sen: Safe R with Cochran and Likely verging on Safe-R with McDaniel - and unfortunately, I rate the Republican primary Likely-McDaniel. The Democrats' only chance is to run a really good candidate and hope that McDaniel wins the primaries and then says things that really offend white women, because merely being a neo-Confederate racist is not sufficient to make a candidate lose in Mississippi.

MT-Sen: Tilt to Lean R. I have trouble rating this one. I think that Walsh is a very good candidate, and MT is surely capable of electing another Democratic senator; it's just that, all things being equal, I have to at least tilt this race toward Congressman Daines, who as the At-Large House Rep for the entire state probably has more name-recognition than the Lieutenant Governor (correct me if I'm wrong). But to a large degree, I think both candidates control their own fates, and if either one messes up, the other will win. However, if both run excellent campaigns, you have to respect the overall Republican lean of this highly ticket-splitting state. Debates actually could make some of the difference in this race (not merely the debates themselves, of course, but how sound bites from them are reported and used in ads after the fact).

NC-Sen: Lean D. My rating may be a bit optimistic, but while the president is not currently popular in NC and didn't win there in 2012, the Governor and North Carolina Legislature are even more unpopular, so that may be a wash. NC has a slight Republican lean, but incumbency counts for something. If Hagan's opponent is State House Speaker Thom Tillis, this race will probably end up as Likely D, because I think it's quite unlikely that North Carolinians will vote this guy in.

NE-Sen: Safe R.

NH-Sen: Lean D with Brown, Likely D with anyone else. I take polls showing Brown as popular in NH somewhat seriously, but if the Democrats are losing this race, they have probably already lost the Senate.

NJ-Sen: Safe D.

NM-Sen: Safe D. I'm having trouble seeing this Udall lose in a state that leans harder D than Colorado.

OK-Sen, A and B: Safe R.

OR-Sen: Safe D.

RI-Sen: Safe D.

SC-Sen, A and B: Both Safe R. I predict that Lindsey Graham will lose in a primary runoff (they have those, right? please correct me if I'm wrong), and if so, I will be unhappy, because whoever replaces him will be worse.

SD-Sen: Safe R. What a disappointing Democratic candidate, but it might not have mattered who ran against Rounds.

TN-Sen: Safe R, and also Likely verging on Safe-Alexander (remembering all the previous instances, I can't quite count out freak Tea Party victories in primaries).

TX-Sen: Safe R. The Republican primary is a Race to Watch, but no longer for disappearing weirdo, Stockman. Other candidates are worth watching to see if anyone consolidates the crazy anti-Cornyn vote and catches fire. But a party that thinks Cornyn is not conservative enough is really insane, and I think Cornyn is likely to win the primaries, even though this is the state that elected Ted Cruz last time. Even if Cornyn loses the primary, though, the state leans hard Republican, nowadays, so kudos to the Democrats giving it a good try, but surely, none of them is expecting to win, and none of them will.

VA-Sen: Safe D. There is no evidence whatsoever that Gillespie has a chance. Warner by 10-15.

WV-Sen: Lean R, and I want to see more polling data.

WY-Sen: Safe R.

I'm having trouble seeing a chance for a Democratic pickup anywhere other than Georgia or/and Kentucky, both of which I am still leaning at least somewhat toward the Republicans for now. If there's a surprise Democratic pickup anywhere else, believe it or not, I think it could be in Kansas, either because Roberts wins the primary and the voters punish him for not living in the state, or because Roberts loses and his opponent turns out to be a freak and sound like one. I give this no more than a 10% chance of happening, and probably more like 5%, but it's not impossible.

On the other hand, I'm predicting Republican pickups in SD, WV, MT, and AR (probably in that order of likelihood, at this point), with a straight Tossup in AK and a very slight Tilt D in LA.

So as things stand, I rate 6 Republican pickups as more likely than a push or net Democratic pickup of 1. I am not predicting at this stage that the Democrats are likely to lose control of the Senate, but there are several elections that are so close right now that what happens to the economy between now and November, and also how successful Democratic Get-Out-The-Vote efforts are (because we know greater percentages of eligible Republican voters than Democratic voters usually vote) could determine the fates of 6 or so seats.

And that also means money. Candidates need to have talent and smarts to run good campaigns, but if they have no money to advertise, they can only take it on the chin so much before they run out of chances to win. I have not yet sent money to Democratic candidates, but I think I will start doing so soon, and surely Begich and Walsh in cheap AK and MT will get some of my money, but Hagan has been taking it on the chin too long and will need plenty of money to blitz the eventual Republican winner in the primaries with deadly commercials and a great GOTV effort. And anyone who can possibly overlook Landrieu's home-state advocacy of oil should absolutely send her money because she is almost too liberal to win in her state and is a really loyal Democrat in the Senate, to her potential downfall.

If you want more advice on where your contributions will go farthest, please read Stephen Wolf's wonderful diary, "Where do your political donations do the most in furthering progressivism in 2014? Let's find out."

Poll

Who do you think is the most vulnerable incumbent senator?

3%6 votes
58%92 votes
3%6 votes
9%15 votes
4%7 votes
3%6 votes
7%12 votes
5%8 votes
2%4 votes
0%0 votes

| 156 votes | Vote | Results

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  i may lose sleep over hawaii (4+ / 0-)

    in the primary. hanabusa is awful, and schatz is one of the best.

    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

    by Laurence Lewis on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:37:30 AM PST

    •  I'm not as worried about HI-Sen (6+ / 0-)

      Contrary to the diarist, I think the effects of the "Japanese women vote" are overstated, and disregards the fact that Hawaii polling is so awful and non-predictive to begin with that one can't assume much from the existing polls.  Hanabusa released one showing herself up 30 points at the start of the campaign.  Schatz's internals have only had him in the lead, and the rest have bounced back and forth.  At this point I assume it's a coin flip, but I give the edge to Schatz as his name recognition picks up and his incumbency starts to work to his advantage (at this point he's already been Senator for over a year).

      As long as Schatz remains popular, I think he'll make it through the primary.  He's already outraising Hanabusa by a significant amount, and he has a lot of institutional support lining up in his corner (though Hanabusa has powerful supporters as well).

      I'm expecting a repeat of the 2010 Colorado Dem Senate primary, where little known appointed Senator Michael Bennet ended up beating back a primary challenge from Andrew Romanoff.  I felt Romanoff would have beaten Bennet in an open seat situation, but Bennet's appointment gave him the edge.

      In any case, even if Hanabusa wins it's not the end of the world.  She's not a Blue Dog or anything, just your run of the mill appropriations-minded Hawaii machine Democrat.  I think she'd vote similarly to the late Senator Inouye.  Schatz on the other hand is undeniably a strong progressive, but it's not the end of the road for him if he gets booted.  He's in his early 40s and has a strong career ahead of him regardless.

      •  hanabusa IS a blue dog (0+ / 0-)

        or "new democrat coalition," as they now call themselves.

        The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

        by Laurence Lewis on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 02:21:05 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No she isn't (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          aoeu, ProudNewEnglander, Taget, jncca

          The New Democrats are not and never were the same as the Blue Dogs, quite apart from how important the Blue Dogs were in having a Democratic majority in the House.

          Look, I'm a socialist, so I think you'd know which of the two candidates I'd prefer, but it's hardly a tremendous difference, overall, and in any case, there's been a lot of invective over this previously in DKE, and I don't want it in my thread, so I'll thank you to stop complaining about Hanabusa here and just focus on who you think is more likely to win that primary and why, as this is a thread about predictions, not personal likes and dislikes. Thanks a lot.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 03:36:19 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  On DKE, we've learned to avoid arguing (0+ / 0-)

      about our personal likes or dislikes of Schatz and Hanabusa. I maintain that I won't lose sleep either way, but the point here is really to try to predict who will win and why, not to argue about which Democrat is better. If you live in Hawaii or want to send money to one rather than the other, it would probably be best to discuss who the better candidate is in a diary on the front page.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:39:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm not losing any sleep over Hawaii. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Don't get me wrong.  I like Schatz.  And I never much cared for the "Inouye willed it" argument some of her supporters have used.

      But that said if she wins she'll make a perfectly fine Senator and is well qualified.  And given it was an appointment I have no problem with a primary.  In the end given it's the voters who should choose who their Senator is why should I hold it against her for at least this first go for her to try her hand in a primary?

      If this was more of a swing state I'd fret.  But this is democracy and under normal circumstances the way things should be.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 07:17:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I may lose sleep over Hawaii (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, GoUBears, sacman701

      because following their primary results may keep me up late ;)

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 08:07:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting thoughts on MT... does this race at... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    all compare with Tester and Rehberg in 2012? I remember being very surprised when Tester pulled ahead. I had fully written MT off to the GOP.

    •  I think it doesn't really (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      Because Tester was an incumbent senator in 2012. I also think that Rehberg was a somewhat weaker candidate than Daines. He was involved with some personal controversies. Steve Daines is clean, as far as I know, and I don't think he is likely to face any repercussions except on the basis of his votes in the House.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:36:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Steve Daines is clean (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        compared to Rehberg, but he has lots of splainin to do on some recent votes in the House.  I wouldn't rule this out.  Tester is helping Walsh which means he'll likely have access to his resources and contacts.  Tester won by 3%  Granted he had some help from the Libertarian in the race who pulled in 6% but it's questionable if all 6% would have flipped to Rehberg.  Daines is a a relatively unknown who has 1 term under his belt in the House.  So to say he's a known commodity is a bit of a stretch too.

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 07:38:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm saying that Daines probably has higher (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          name-recognition than Walsh - please correct me if that's not what polls are showing -  not that he's a totally known quantity. And I am not remotely close to ruling out a win by Walsh. I said the same thing you did: That he will have to defend his votes in the House.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:03:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  he might, I don't recall (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but both only first won statewide office in 2012, and Walsh did so on somebody else's ticket.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:37:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Slightly more optimistic (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    then my personal prediction now (mostly Pryor, Landrieu and Hagan), but generally - agree. Good job!

  •  Bearish for now but this will change (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, 207wickedgood, Taget

    Tilt D - AK, LA, MI
    Tilt R - AR, NC, KY
    Lean D - CO, NH, IA
    Lean R - GA, MT
    Likely D - VA, OR, MN
    Likely R - SD, WV, KS, MS

    This is based on the current status of each race based on a combination of current polling, historical performance and candidate probability. If I had to be put on the spot I'd say losing at least 4 and more probably 5 is most likely with more possible.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 06:12:48 AM PST

    •  Some of those are quite surprising (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      You think Hagan is more threatened than Landrieu and Begich? Also, most of those "Likelies" are Safe in my ratings. Republicans aren't winning in OR or MN, the Democrat is not winning in SD.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 06:43:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't see Hagan losing (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen, sacman701

        She's getting hammered right now but the GOP in NC is despised.  Tillis is the head of the GOP along with McCrory as Speaker of the State House.  He's the embodiment of everything that is wrong in NC.  This race will get nastier and both will get hammered.  At this point I'd consider Hagan's polling to be the floor not the ceiling.  Koch dumped in a ton of money to dirty her up early.  But Tillis is shit and the people know it.

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 07:42:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  As long as she doesn't get too far behind (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, eztempo, jncca

          to catch up and take the lead when she can go after whomever wins the Republican primary. The danger is that in taking it on the chin for months, she could be put into too much of a hole. I'm a bit nervous about that.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:04:50 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm not. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            The spending has a point of diminishing returns.  We experienced it twice in CT.  No matter how much McMahon spent, she was despised more.  NC is a bit different than CT  but we saw the same dynamic happen in MO last cycle and Akin got trounced (granted he helped).  Same in MT, ND, OH and so on.  

            Hagan will get back up and Tillis will likely be so bloodied from the primary that one good blow will effectively knock him out.  He's so despised that it doesn't have to even be a good blow, but just a glancing one.  

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:40:22 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  But what if Tillis doesn't win the primary? (0+ / 0-)

              And as you said, NC is way different from CT. I'm not sure your analysis of the elections in the other states is really accurate. Did all of those candidates take it on the chin for so long?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:07:25 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  The others are worse (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Tillis is the best they have.  

                McCaskill was taking it on the chin well over a year before her election.  She was in the dumps.  Harry Reid was dead man walking in 2010.  Sherrod Brown had more money spent in his campaign attacking than most others in senate history.  Over $60 million from outside PACs were spent to defeat Brown.  he won by 6%.  Polls in March had him at 43%.  Granted they were Rasmussen.  Polls had him at 44% in October.  
                 

                This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

                by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:55:57 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I remember Brown leading in the polls (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen

                  pretty much throughout that race. Reid had plenty of money and ratfucked the Republican primary extremely effectively. McCaskill, likewise, ratfucked extremely effectively. So both of them ran ads during the Republican primaries that helped them a lot.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:59:01 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  There were a few where Brown was tied (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Most were within the margin of error.

                    What makes you think the Dems won't do the same with Hagan?  The GOP candidates all suck and Hagan runs about the same against most of the leaders of the pack.  The republican primary is only on May 6 so there is still plenty of time to rat fuck it.  The question though is who would the Dems prefer?  Harris, Bannon, Tillis or Grant?

                    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

                    by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:14:43 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

      •  As they stand right now (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But I would expect Hagan to rally. SD is more about Pressler. My likelies are closer to safe anyway.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:03:31 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Wehby raised less than half what Merkley did (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in the 4th quarter. She needs to exceed him to actually be competitive.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:40:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  One problem, I think, is that every single state (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eztempo, MichaelNY, James Allen, jncca

    that is in toss-up or lean teritory (MI excepted) is a Romney state; and every one of them other than NC is strongly republican. My guess is that even in the absence of any real republican momentum, the polling in those states will gravitate towards their natural partisan lean, and their performance on election day relative to polling may do so as well.

    Or another way to look at it: all the Republicans need to do to win 6 seats, and thus the senate, is hang on to win in states that Romney won by at least 14%.

    Pretty sobering when you put it that way, isn't it? In fact, I think i just talked myself into believing that they have better than even odds at taking the senate.

    •  Yes, it is sobering (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rtaylor352, James Allen, jncca

      But it's quite a bit more likely that states like Montana and West Virginia will elect a Democrat to the Senate than that they will vote for a Democrat for President. And many of the Republican candidates will be quite a lot further right than the chameleon, Romney, while most of the Democrats are also to the right of Obama.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:47:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for the survey. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Taget

    I've been watching for a rundown, and this fits the bill!  Thanks.

    Two-cents:  I've been buoyed by Pat Roberts' trouble connecting with actual Kansans, of late.  While my sense is that most Kansans well understand folks leaving the State for greener pastures on the coasts, it's not something they look for in a Senator.  Growing up, I know that even Bob Dole made an occasional trip home with much hoopla, appearing with locals that appeared to know him personally, and though everyone understood that he was a "national politician," at least he spent a fraction of his time on State concerns.  I get the sense from afar, now, that Roberts hasn't made much such effort this past decade.

    It has been amusing to watch how squeamish and ill-suited to the role of RW Firebrand Senator Roberts has been.  The insincerity is palpable, so the threat from the Teahadist Wing is more surprising for the fact that a Republican is willing to challenge an incumbent fellow Republican than that Roberts is vulnerable to the charge of "losing touch" with his constituents.  But then, there's no accounting for these Tea Party people, is there?  The purge of the Kansas Republican Party continues.  It remains to be seen whether a general electorate will reject a clumsy Tea Partier in favor of a Democrat (shudder, the horror), any Democrat, should Roberts lose his primary.

  •  I think that your comments on Michigan prospects (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    are right on.  Michigan has not elected a Republican to the Senate (with one notable collective brain-fart when they elected Spence Abraham to a single term in 1994) since Carl Levin turfed out Bob Griffin in 1978.  And with as capable and well-known a candidate as the Dems have in Gary Peters, they are not going to start now.  I really don't understand all the hand-wringing and poor-mouthing from some of our kossack friends--Peters may not be a lock to win right now, but he is definitely a solid lean D, and very well could be a likely D when we get closer to the election.

    MI-8, 71, married, 7 children, 16 grandchildren, retired, independent but progressive

    by jimmich on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:45:07 PM PST

  •  good job (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I mostly agree with your ratings, but I could just as easily see AK tilt D (they like their incumbents) and I would put KY at lean R. I agree with lean R for GA, but I think that works out to tilt D with Broun, tilt R with Gingrey, and likely R with anyone else.

    SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 03:42:19 PM PST

    •  Gingrey isn't crazy enough (0+ / 0-)

      for a Tossup rating? Is your reasoning on KY that you expect most of the undecideds to eventually vote Republican?

      In terms of Alaska, it's true that they like their incumbents, but their incumbents have been Republicans for a long time, so this is uncharted territory.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 04:01:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Gingrey has one controversial statement. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        In a decade in office, from what I remember.  Broun has about the opposite ratio, ten every year.  I think that no matter what you choose to rate the various matchups, Broun vs. Nunn should not be the same as Gingrey vs. Nunn.  For the record, I have Broun/Nunn at Tilt R, Gingrey/Nunn at Lean R, and the others/Nunn at Likely R.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 08:12:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  KY (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        McConnell has a history of pulling out tough campaigns, most recently in 2008. Grimes looks like a better candidate than Lunsford, but 2014 looks like a better year for the GOP than 2008.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:52:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Grimes has done a lot better in polling (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          than Lunsford ever did.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 05:02:18 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Survey results (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GoUBears

    So far, Pryor is leading by a mile, with 37 votes to 9 for McConnell, who I still think has a somewhat greater than 50% chance of winning, and then Thad Cochran is in 3rd place with 5 votes. I tend to disagree. I think that Senator Cochran of Mississippi is a surer loser in the Republican primary than Senator Pryor is in the general election. You don't get to say you are ignorant and act ignorant of what the Tea Party is in Mississippi and win. And I'm not sure it's possible to be too racist to win a Republican primary there.

    Sad how the parties have flipped and the Republican Party has been taken over by some out-and-out unreconstructed racists and neo-Confederates. Poor Mr. Lincoln is spinning in his grave.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 04:27:17 PM PST

    •  Or maybe not. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      The Know Nothings were a very important part of the coalition that formed the Republican Party.

      There has been a nativist impulse within the Republican Party right from it's very beginnings and contributed to the Democratic takeover of Northeastern urban centers with their anti-Catholicism.  And the only case where the KKK ever explicitly took over a state party was in the 1920s with the Indiana Republican Party.

      That's not to deny that it was Republicans who helped pass the Civil Rights Act in the 1960s or that there are many unsung heroes within who were doing some very good things up until the Goldwater/Reagan takeover.  But it has always been a predominantly white protestant party and has always had a dark side to it.  Even going back to the time of Lincoln.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 07:34:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I wasn't aware of the collaboration (0+ / 0-)

        between the Republicans and the KKK in Indiana. That's quite shocking. I had assumed it was the Democrats collaborating with the KKK, as usual for those days.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 07:46:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Lincoln was a racist, too. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      He was less racist than most of his time, but still racist nonetheless.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 08:13:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think he ended up a Jim Crow guy (0+ / 0-)

        Sure, he was a product of his times, but I think he was one of the less racist whites of his day, though not to the degree of the Radical Republicans.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:38:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good thread (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Here are some observations:

    1.  Alaska/Hawaii.  These are two states whereby I've never felt comfortable trusting the results of the polls.  I'd give Begich a very slim advantage, but a pure Tossup rating seems very accurate.  In Hawaii, I overall agree with your rating of Lean-Hanabusa in the primary.  

    2.  Incumbents who may lose in the primary.  The Republicans seem to have about 47 purity tests for all incumbents.  Roberts is doomed in the Kansas primary, and rightfully so.  I think McConnell will pull it out in the Kentucky primary by a decent margin.  In the general election, I'm picking Lundergan Grimes in an upset.  Great personality, great charisma, and a great connection to the electorate.  As far as Mississippi goes, I think Cochran may need to place a call with Dick Lugar.  If I remember, Lugar wasn't hostile towards Obama (one of the 47 purity tests) as most of his caucus.  When the video came out where Cochran gave Obama some respect, I thought I was watching his funeral.  As far as Graham in SC goes, I think he will pull it out, even if it goes into a runoff.  It won't be pretty, but Graham will attract some wingnutters to his cause (cough, Benghazi, cough).  I'm not totally convinced that Cornyn is completely safe being the fact of how right-wing the Texas primary voters are and the fact that Cruz is serving in the Senate.  I'm rating this one as more of a likely-Cornyn victory in the primary, but I'm splitting hairs.

    And for the rest:

    South Dakota will flip to the Republicans...Safe R.

    West Virginia still has some Democratic juice in it, but it will take a Machin type of Democrat.  Lean R.

    Montana will be a fun race to watch.  I like Walsh's chances here, although he is an underdog.  Daines is fairly new too and will have to explain some of his recent votes.  Tilt R

    Georgia will be fun to watch during the primary season.  Broun and Gingrey are not solid candidates, but it will be fun watching them and the other candidates fight it out.  Nunn will make things interesting, but I think Georgia will remain in the Republican hands.  Lean to likely Republican based on who wins the Republican nomination.

    Iowa will remain with the Democrats.  While Braley may not win 55% of the vote, he will still have more votes than the Republican candidate.  Likely Dem.

    Landrieu is a great campaigner and represents her state very well.  However, Louisiana does not like Obama, and her opponents will try their best to tie her to Obama.  The question is whether her excellent campaign skills will be enough.  I have this as Tilt R.

    Hagan needs to start airing ads...now.  She's been bombarded with negative ads regarding Obamacare.  If she can fight off these attacks aggressively, she will win.  Her opponents are weak, much weaker than even Liddy Dole.  Thom Tillis is probably her opponent, and he's nothing impressive.  Lean D.

    Mark Pryor will be in the fight of his life.  Arkansas is not the same state as it was 20 years ago, meaning that the Democratic label doesn't have the same juice now as then.  I think Pryor is a better politician than Cotton, but the makeup of the electorate gives Cotton an edge.  Lean Republican.

    That being stated, I'm hoping I'm wrong on a bunch of these races.  I hate being so pessimistic....
     

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site