Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Open Thread Banner

Brian Williams -- Rapper's Delight

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  An important reminder (24+ / 0-)

    The same guidelines and mores that guide our interactions on DKE apply to the weekly open threads as much as they do to the Live Digests. That means, above all else, everyone still has to be excellent to one another. Just because it's the weekend doesn't mean anyone has a license to be a dick.

    And stay on topic with the horserace. Yeah, certainly, there's more leeway in terms of jokey topics, music, TV shows, sports, etc. But come on, people. This isn't the place to debate Ukrainian politics or other contentious issues that have nothing to do with American electoral politics. Keep it light, and keep it easy.

    And remember, this isn't a debating club, and no one wins points for being right. Don't be this guy. If someone says something you find upsetting or frustrating, take a deep breath and give yourself several minutes before responding. Step away from the computer for a bit if you have to. You won't regret it. Trust me, life's a lot better when you're not getting into fights with people on the Internet.

    So be good, be kind, stay on topic, and have fun.

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 02:01:46 PM PST

    •  Thanks for the reminder (6+ / 0-)

      A note on the Ukrainian politics thing: while I understand ruling that topic off-limits, we've had some good and fruitful discussions about electoral politics in other countries before. Is the rule that we are limited specifically to American politics, or can we discuss electoral politics of other Anglosphere countries and/or mature democracies (i.e. not Ukraine, Egypt, Venezuela, Russia, Libya, etc.), too?

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 05:15:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I discussed this before with Darth Jeff (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico

        Ukrainian elections and campaigns are on-topic, but just as with US campaigns and elections, issues are off-topic except in discussing how they might affect election results.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:30:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  What Illinois Democrats should have drawn: 14-4 (8+ / 0-)
     photo IllinoisDem14-4StateView_zps3fbf51e1.png
     photo IllinoisDem14-4ChicagoView_zpsfa243f0a.png
     photo IllinoisDem14-4Summary_zps4bf450e8.png
    (click through for larger images)

    This map makes the 13th district rock solid for generic D and even David Gill would have won easily and it even shores up the 12th while the 17th is marginally more Republican and Bustos would have still won it. It also makes the 10th a little bit more Democratic while flipping the 6th by turning it into a D+4 district while dividing Roskam's old district several ways. With actual 2012 precinct data at my disposal (or 2010 in the app as the map-makers would have had access to) I could make this even more effective and potentially get the 6th and 8th up to D+5 or more.

    •  Couple of questions (0+ / 0-)

      How are you calculating the 08-10 averages. And how are you able to get a giant size picture of the state?

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 05:43:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm using the 2008 numbers from DRA (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LilithGardener, CF of Aus

        and the county-based numbers for all others. When a county is split, I use the DRA precinct numbers to calculate the proportion of the total county vote Obama/McCain won in each district, and then multiplying that proportion by the other elections in each split county. So it's an estimate and the larger the county and the smaller the total pop of the county a district has, the larger the error, but in general it's a solid method for estimation. For more precision, by 2008 president all the 14 Dem districts are over 60% Obama two party except for the 12th, which is 58.1% and the 17th which is 59.4%.

        As for the images, I take a screen capture with the PrintScreen key and paste them into an image editor GIMP. If you post the html embed code for an image wider than 500 pixels in the comments or 600 in a diary, you can insert the code width="500" with spaces on both sides right before the /)(/a) where the parentheses would be <> instead. That puts a smaller image on DKos, but when you click through will go to your image hosting site which for me is photobucket.

    •  Very good (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      I think Peoria should have gone into the 13th, since the 17th is able to go elsewhere and be winnable for Democrats.

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 05:57:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can 13 go further by adding Danville? (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:46:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Dangerous (0+ / 0-)

      IL-8 almost certainly goes Republican. Joe Walsh took a district that was just over 53% Obama in 2010. Especially cutting through Lake and Cook counties like it does the 08-10 average dramatically overstates support. Lake County goes blue largely on Highland Park (Moraine Twp) and Waukegan breaking 65-70% for the Democrats. Western Lake County is fairly red below the Presidential level. I doubt Pat Quinn cleared 40-42% in 2010.

      That IL-10 also gets dangerous. Pushing further south it picks up more of the areas that go blue at the top of the ticket and are Republican down ticket. With Schneider's 2k vote win in the current version, I'd be worried about those Northfield/New Trier twp ticket splitters.

      It's a brand new rock.

      by RevolutionRock on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 09:12:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Been there, done that...a year ago. (0+ / 0-)

      24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 09:17:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm a Norris esque progressive (3+ / 0-)

      i don't like gerrymandering for either party. And its even worse then it was 30 years ago. The whole idea of politicians drawing districts for self enrichment seems more typical of a third world country.

      •  I strongly dislike gerrymandering as well (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LilithGardener

        ...regardless of which political party/faction does it. I believe that redistricting should be done completely independent of the state legislatures (preferably with a system that combines Iowa's bureaucratic-drawn maps with an independent redistricting commission that would be allowed to make minor changes to them with a two-thirds vote)

        There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

        by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 11:29:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I doubt anyone here likes gerrymandering (10+ / 0-)

          I don't presume to speak for everyone here, but I'd wager nobody would seriously argue that gerrymandering in general is a good thing. In a perfect world, redistricting would be done fully independently. But considering Republicans have absolutely no qualms about it, Democrats have to do it as well where they are able. Unilateral disarmament will only make sure that Republicans keep the House indefinitely. Barring very unusual and unlikely events, there's really only two options:

          1. Stand on "principle" and ensure that nothing progressive ever happens.

          or

          2. Accept some of the sausage-making parts of politics in the process of pushing progressive policy.

          Those are the two options in our present political structure. "Should" our politics be different? Sure. But that's the way it is, and starry-eyed idealism will not make it any different.

          •  well someone like Bob Goodlatte would be the (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            person to go to concerning this since he chairs a committee that would have jurisdiction over it. The idea would be that he and his fellow committeemen would support stricter redistricting laws if dems back off of x (whether it be gun control, repeal of taft hartley or whatever).

    •  Yes, Bustos and Duckworth would have won in 2012.. (0+ / 0-)

      under your map.  But the question is whether it might not endanger them (maybe even  Foster as well) in a more Republican year later this decade.  After all, Duckworth cannot count on having as vulnerable opponent as Joe Walsh in every election.  And even in 2012, Obama probably had some home-state advantage in Illinois (though not nearly as much as in 2008) so a D + 4 or even D + 5 2012  district might not be as safe as in some other states.  And Roskam might very well run and survive in your new 6th; after all, he won pretty decisively in the old 6th in 2008, even though Obama was carrying it 56-43.

      •  He only won by 4% in 2006 in that district (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        killacity

        and this one removes his base of Wheaton and much of his old district and on top of that is 5% more Democratic by 2008 numbers. If anything I would expect Roskam to have run in the 14th, but even in the 6th he'd be at a serious disadvantage though I don't know who our candidate would be. Also keep in mind that with actual precinct data for races other than 2008 president you could craft a more effective map than I was able to. Additionally the estimation method I used likely underestimated Obama's vote share in districts such as the 3rd, 8th, and 10th. I don't think we'd have much to worry about winning those districts as by my numbers Pat Quinn barely lost the 8th and 11th and won the 10th and lost the 6th by about 6%. John Kerry also won all 14 districts so it isn't just an Obama thing though I don't dispute that he had some home-region effect.

  •  Really happy to see... (19+ / 0-)

    We got our top recruits in Kansas and Mississippi Senate races. Yeah, those races are huge long-shots, but there are enough moving parts on the Republican side that relieves me that Democrats will actually be mounting credible efforts there -- just in case Chris McDaniel defends segregation or suggests the South should secede from the Union, or Milton Wolf is indicted for malpractice or investigated by the Secret Service a few weeks before Election Day, or Sen. Pat Roberts makes some absurd and devastating gaffe that plays into his absenteeism from his "home state".

    I might throw a few bucks Childers's way, actually, once he gets rolling.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 05:12:25 PM PST

    •  Indiana was a longshot for Donnelly, too. (12+ / 0-)

      Now we call him Senator Donnelly.

      Claire McCaskill was a dead woman walking at this time 2 years ago. She's still in the Senate.

      As long as the incumbents get turfed out, I have a good feeling about these races.

      Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

      by WisJohn on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 05:36:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wasted talent, should help rebuild our bench (0+ / 0-)

      Their wasting their potential running for these long shot races they should for a statewide position like Treasurer or Auditor at least get some Dems elected so we can a bench in these states. It'd be nice to see a revival of the Dem state parties in the south all we need is the right type of candidate. It's much easier winning a Governorship in these states than trying to win a Senate seat.

      •  What's the point of benching.. (6+ / 0-)

        if you say that any race worth benching for is unwinnable?

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

        by Le Champignon on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:29:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  They should run for lower positions (0+ / 0-)

          Look at Jim Hood for example AG of Mississippi he's a great candidate in waiting who'd have a decent shot of being Governor. Hood seems to be waiting his turn but at least we have someone in a statewide position.

      •  You remind me of someone. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:34:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Huh? (7+ / 0-)

        How is this wasted? Even losing a high-profile race with dignity can set up a candidate for excellent prospects in a future statewide race. Examples of this are numerous.

      •  I don't think those races are open (0+ / 0-)

        We've got a long way to go to build a bench and win statewide races in general. Hood seems to be the only hold out but he came from time when the Dems still had residual strength at the state level.

        "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

        by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:48:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Start from the bottom on up. (0+ / 0-)

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 11:08:47 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, baloney! Really, come on now... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo, gabjoh

        The only way these guys disqualify themselves for higher office in the future--Taylor especially, since he's younger than Childers--is if they really foul something up on the campaign trail. Virtually nobody would be surprised by a loss by either one of them. If they are down with six weeks to go, they can run out the rest of the race in a principled way, so that they don't embarrass themselves or the party. And if they decide to run in the future, it might be harder, because someone else might challenge them, but they won't be thought of as jokes. Shaheen lost in NH but came back to win six years later. She was governor, sure, but she lost, and six years is a LONG time in politics.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 11:07:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Sao, dream big here, bro... (6+ / 0-)

      I know we face some tough races, but seriously, aside from SD, which seats are really, truly out of reach? I don't think any of them. It might take a lot to really hold all of them, because of the states in question, but losing just two of the ones we currently hold, SD and one more, wouldn't be so hard to believe, at least for me.

      So let's say we lose SD and, oh, AR. But we beat them in KY and GA, especially if Broun is the nominee, as well as in MS because McDaniel wins the primary. We've gained a seat! Hard, but, but not impossible.

      They'd be positively livid, and the press that fawns over them wouldn't know what to do with itself.

      Now imagine something similar happens in KS. That's net gain of two seats, bringing us to 57. And if you think PA, MI, and IL are all but assured in 2016, well...

      I'm probably getting ahead of myself here. But really, as I keep saying, it's all upside. We didn't shove aside a better candidate in those states because of an inspiring but tougher sell. Without those guys in MS and KS, we might not have had anyone.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 11:03:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  What's the latest in Staten Island (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo

    NY - Michael Grimm

    What's the fallout been for his threat to throw the reporter off the balcony?

    I've been researching CT gun law lately, and have become interested in their state legislature. (As well as my home state of NY)

    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” — William Arthur Ward

    by LilithGardener on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 05:45:14 PM PST

    •  If you have any questions about CT's st. leg., (3+ / 0-)

      particularly about their elections or members, just ask me. I have election results for every district in both houses from 2008 to the present.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:12:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thx, bookmarking your comment (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo

        I'm writing a diary on the recent Federal Court decision, Shew v Malloy. My understanding is that the 2013 Conn. gun control law passed with bipartisan support. From your perspective, how bipartisan was it? Have there been any significant grumblings about voters punishing their reps for supporting the bill?

        Thx in advance.

        "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” — William Arthur Ward

        by LilithGardener on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:33:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The bill was quite bipartisan (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LilithGardener, MichaelNY

          6 Republican state senators (out of 14 total) voted yes; all five from Fairfield County and one from New Haven County. Two Dems, both from Eastern Connecticut, voted no.

          As for the House, almost all Fairfield County Republicans voted yes, as well as many others in mostly suburban districts, such as Prasad Srinivasan (Glastonbury) and Bill Aman (South Windsor). A few Eastern CT Dems, such as Linda Orange (Colchester) voted no.

          I'd be surprised if there was any backlash against Republicans supporting the bill. Most Reps that voted yes are from, as I said, suburban districts where voters don't really care about gun issues. These types of districts are generally liberal on social issues and moderate/conservative (especially in Fairfield County) on fiscal issues.

          As for Eastern CT, certainly the Republicans there really don't like the law (and no Republicans from this area voted yes), but that's not going to help the Republicans in general elections because these are the types of people who would vote anyway.

          (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

          by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 04:37:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            That's very helpful. I've also looked at some of the reports from the Connecticut Office of Legislative Research.

            Conn. adopted an individual right to bear arms for self defense in 1818, 190 years before Heller.

            Every citizen has a right to bear arms in defense of himself and the state.

            Now that I know that it's not surprising at all that the law was upheld. The CT leg has been vetting all their gun control laws against the individual RKBA in the state constitution all along.

            "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” — William Arthur Ward

            by LilithGardener on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 04:55:31 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I already asked one (0+ / 0-)

        You have a great rundown of open seats in Connecticut state senate (and some - in House). An ideological positions of possible candidates (including republicans, and they may be even of more interest, because Democrats from North-East are, almost alaways, liberals)?

        •  In the PMs (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LilithGardener

          Ask me there. I don't know every candidate's political positions, but I'll tell you what I know.

          (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

          by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 04:38:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Not necessarily (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          E.g. In 2012 there were 4 NYS legislator who were elected as Dems who switched their party after the election giving the NY Senate (?) majority to the GOP. That's not liberal. And Cuomo was fine with that. Not very liberal.

          Bloomberg was a lifelong Democrat before switching to GOP to avoid the Dem primary for NYC mayor in 2001.

          Quite a few nominal Dems in Rhode Island support GOP policies. Seems the Dem party have absorbed many moderate Republicans who were left behind as the GOP
          moved far right.

          "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” — William Arthur Ward

          by LilithGardener on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 11:37:59 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oftentimes in one party states (5+ / 0-)

            you'll have folks who would otherwise be in the minority party get elected as members of the majority party. In Hawaii, where Democrats control the state senate by a ridiculously lopsided 24-1 margin for instance, you have members like Mike Gabbard who are Republicans in all but name elected as Democrats because they otherwise couldn't win,or if they did win have no influence. Rhode Island and Massachusetts are somewhat like that with the absurdly large Democratic majorities having several members who are effectively conservatives when you compare them to the politics of the state rather than the nation.

            Of course you can also have the reverse where the one party dominance leads someone like Mike Bloomberg to switch to the minority party because he stood no chance at winning a Democratic primary in 2001. His initial election was pretty much a fluke given his self-funding, 9/11, and his opponent and he still won just narrowly.

    •  Not much, really (8+ / 0-)

      Despite his initial defensive response, Grimm was smart enough to apologize the next day, and the reporter accepted his apology. I think it blew over really quickly, though if Grimm does anything hot-headed again, he'll get glaring scrutiny.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:40:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  DKE user Taget lives there (6+ / 0-)

      Grimm is just a jungle of ethics issues.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:46:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It made Grimm look foolish.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LilithGardener, MichaelNY

      ...which is why he is vulnerable.  Otherwise a Republican with his relative (by current Republican standards) moderation and perceived pro-labor tilt would be pretty set.

      It just continues the sense of "scandal" about him.  But nothing yet has particularly stuck.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 09:49:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-12 and Down Ballot Effects (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, ProgMD, SaoMagnifico

    I'll start with a disclaimer that I am a huge Rebekah Warren supporter. Also, I'll be discussing potential replacements for her and one of them is a good friend of mine.

    First, I'll talk a little bit about the race MI-12. People in Ann Arbor have talked about the match up between Rebekah Warren and Debbie Dingell since the day Rebekah won her State Senate race in 2010. In 2010, Senator Warren beat Pam Byrnes (the Democratic candidate in MI-7 this year) in a tough primary. I know Senator Warren will run a very good campaign, but I don't know if she can win. The big question will be if any progressive groups come to back her up. She is by far more liberal than Debbie Dingell, but I think groups will be afraid to back an underdog.

    As for the down ballot implications:

    As you all probably know Senator Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited so the Senate Democrats will have a new leader next term. Most people think Senator Warren is the front runner. If she does run for Congress, I think Senator Jim Ananich of Flint will make a strong push to be next minority leader.

    Outside of the leadership vacancy, she will open up her Senate seat. The big winner of this would be second term State Rep Jeff Irwin. Irwin currently holds Senator Warren's old state house district. This is a huge win for him because most see his main competition as first term State Rep Adam Zemke. It may be hard to Zemke to make a case that he deserves a promotion after just 2 years. Rep Irwin has never been the most loved by establishment Democrats and many consider his 2010 primary victory a fluke. Rep Irwin was outspent 2-1 in that race and he received very little endorsements. I think most people believe he won because he ran hard left (which works in Ann Arbor) and all the moderates voted in the Republican primary for Rick Snyder.

    If both Zemke and Irwin run for the State Senate seat, that opens up both of Ann Arbor's State Rep Seats. I imagine some local government officials will run for those seats. The most prominent would be Washtenaw County Commissioner Yousef Rabhi. He would likely replace Rep. Irwin. Yousef Rabhi is a name to remember because I think he may be a force at the state-level at some point.

    M, 24, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

    by slacks on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 05:53:15 PM PST

    •  Is Whitmer aiming for anything? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      I definitely see her as a rising star in MI but she isn't running anything bigger this year which I'm surprised by since she's term limited. Wish she ran for AG or some statewide position.

    •  One issue (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, ArkDem14

      I just have to take slight issue with one thing you said, and that's about Warren being "far more liberal" than Debbie.  Now, disclaimer, while I think we need folks like Rebekah Warren, I'm first and foremost a labor Democrat similar to Debbie, myself.  

      Where I disagree with you is that I think this is more an issue of style/focus than substance.  Something that irks me about Warren is that it seems she goes down a list of popular progressive pet issues to tick off a lot of the time; it doesn't exactly always come off as genuine.  Compared to my state senator (Gretchen Whitmer), I find it hard to believe she'd ever be seen as playing well with others in the caucus well enough to be considered for a leadership position.  I guess what I'm getting at is that her style may work very well in a district like Ann Arbor  But, I'm not sure that translates even further up than the state senate level, let alone the congressional level, at least in a district outside a major city.

      I hope I'm not being too harsh, and maybe as someone from Mid-Michigan, I'm not very partial to folks from Ann Arbor, whether they be atheletes or politicians.  But, I think it's probably better to characterize Debbie as better connected an old-school deal-maker than as her being so much more conservative than Warren.

      All that said, as a young person, myself, as also a labor Democrat, I would honestly be undecided in this race until I heard more from each candidate.  So far, I'm surprisingly happy with what's coming from Debbie Dingell, who I was very skeptical of when she wanted to run for the open Senate seat.

      •  I didn't mean it to slight Debbie Dingell (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome

        She is by no means a conservative. I think the biggest policy difference between them will be on environmental issues.  It is more of a statement of how far left Rebekah Warren is. I know her well and she is very sincere in her beliefs. She does not hide her ambition though and I can totally understand why some people would be put off.

        I think the most interesting rumor I heard was that Bart Stupak was really close to running for Governor and that Debbie Dingell was going to be his LG candidate. I think things like that are why some people view her as a "moderate." She associates with people in the moderate, old school wing of the party. So I agree with you on that point.

        M, 24, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 12:15:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hadn't heard that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          Wow, I hadn't heard that.  I knew Bart was this close to running for governor, but I don't remembering hearing Debbie's name.  Yeah, that would give me a bit of pause.

          My only knock against the non-labor part of the progressive movement in this state is that many of them seem completely uninterested in manufacturing policy.  I mean, I know we need to get more people in college, but this leaves out a whole swath of the population who won't and don't want to go to college and people already in manufacturing careers, basically.  I mean, you talk with the non-labor wing about things like currency manipulation, counterfeit auto parts, and barely regulated trade deals - some of which president regardless of party push as if it were the end of the world - which have absolutely helped in decimating the domestic auto industry and thus the salaries and wages of a significant part of the population, and you get people who look at you like you have two heads.  

          I mean, it goes right over their heads even though these things have very up-front, real-world and local ecnomic implications and consequences, more so than some of the stuff they are concerned with.

          But, I'm also torn because Dingell could have been significantly better on the environment, though this was more early on, and I guess we're talking specifically about CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards.  It wasn't until later in his career that he did.  By yhe 2005-2007 term, he was getting the League of Conservation Voters highest rating.  For many environmentalists, that is really too little, too late, so I can see why they'd be skeptical of Debbie.  I, too, am waiting to hear more from Debbie on the environment.

          •  I see your argument (0+ / 0-)

            However I must quibble with one aspect of it, specifically your support of the domestic auto industry. Personally, I'm not really a fan of the domestic auto industry, simply because they don't produce very good cars. Japanese cars are almost always of higher quality. Just read Consumer Reports if you don't know what I mean.

            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

            by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 04:44:09 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not really true anymore (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MetroGnome, WisJohn, propjoe

              Probably yes in the 70s and 80s, but not in the past 20 years or so. Toyotas in particular have had quite a decline, with sludge problems and such...

              "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

              by gabjoh on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 06:21:22 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Read Consumer Reports (0+ / 0-)

                The three best car brands are consistently Honda, Subaru, and Toyota. All Japanese.

                American cars are not just (generally) of lower quality than Japanese cars, they also frequently have worse reliability. I for one will not buy any American car until these problems are fixed.

                The CR Annual Auto Issue (April of each year) goes into more detail on these matters.

                (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

                by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 06:21:51 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  support vs. fanboy (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, propjoe

              Perhaps you meant something else, but I hope you aren't arguing that I shouldn't support the (improving on all fronts) industry that supports my state and this nation.  It's one thing for you to not personally be a fan of domestic autos, that's your perogative.  But this Michigander unapologetically supports his hometown industry, and I wish more Americans would, too.  

              This is a perfect example of what I was talking about above of certain parts of the Democratic Party witheringly bashing the Repubicans for being econoically unpatriotic, and then turning around and doing the exact same thing.  You can't have it both ways.  You can't complain about their economic policy of outsourcing and free trade and the like, and then turn around and treat the American economy like a red-headed step-child.  Really, telling me that it's bad that I support domestic autos is something a bit more than galling.  That's not just a quibble.

              •  I'm not criticizing you (0+ / 0-)

                for supporting the American auto industry. That's your right. I'm just explaining why many Americans don't support it.

                Think about it. The American auto industry has a very bad track record on environmental issues (which I care deeply about). In the late '90s, while Toyota was developing the Prius, GM was developing the Hummer. The Big Three has always been out in front in the development of large, gas-guzzling SUVs (remember the Ford Excursion?), and behind the curve in developing small, fuel-efficient cars.

                When I look at an industry, the first thing I judge it on is how well it does what it's supposed to do. I've driven both a Ford Focus and a Toyota Prius, and will say unhesitatingly that I would rather drive a Prius. While I think that labor issues are important, if an industry can't even do a good job of what it's supposed to do, then I will definitely not support it.

                I think it is you who is being the fanboy, ignoring all the problems of the American auto industry. I refuse to ignore those problems.

                (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

                by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 06:31:51 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  BTW (0+ / 0-)

      Zemke is really pissing me off with his school reform plans.  I honestly don't know what his deal is, and have a hard time reading his motives.  I thought well of him, early, but he seems to be becoming a bit of a grandstander, trying to climb a bit faster than he probably should be.

  •  Had another political dream last night. (10+ / 0-)

    I don't usually dream TV ads, but that's what it was. It was an attack ad against MN Gov. Mark Dayton. It went something like "Gov. Dayton raised taxes, passed the disaster that is MNSure, and let these people (showing a gay couple) get married. Vote out Mark Dayton."

    If the Republicans have some new, secret technology to run ads in people's dreams, they gave me the wrong ad. I live in Wisconsin.

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:01:09 PM PST

  •  CO-GOV: Bob Beauprez entering (6+ / 0-)

    Interesting development in CO-GOV race former Rep. Bob Beauprez is joining the Governor's race against Hickenlooper. I don't know if Tancredo or Gessler or going to step aside as easily as the other challengers in CO-SEN did for Gardner. Still Lean D though.

    •  Bob Beauprez, a.k.a. the guy... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

      Who got his ass kicked by Bill Ritter, of all people. The chickenhawk who dressed up in a military uniform for an photo op.

      I'm not shaking.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:53:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Tancredo said he won't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      and Beauprez has produced a lot of fodder on a right-wing website with some pretty out-there articles.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:00:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is weird stuff in Colorado (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Nir, LordMike, Setsuna Mudo

      Did Dick Wadhams have these guys locked in a cellar somewhere and finally decided to let them out for air?

      •  Beauprez apparently can self-fund to a large (3+ / 0-)

        degree, and with Cory Gardner jumping into the race for Udall's seat, it seems these moves have as much to do with what the state GOP thinks it's  shot to win on issues, as it does with them thinking this is their best shot to raise/spend money. With Gardner in a high profile top of the ticket spot, and Tancredo and Beauprez in the Gov race, it seems the GOP is position to appeal to the base and they have a "fresh face" in Gardner to tout. Plus they are vying for the 2016 GOP convention in Denver, so I'm guessing they might feel an extra need to show they are doing all they can to win.

        But the bottom line on the issues is - nothing has changed. It's still the same positions on all the typical Tea Party policy - personhood, guns, etc.

        "Looking back over a lifetime, you see that love was the answer to everything." — Ray Bradbury

        by We Shall Overcome on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:54:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  CO GOP shifting from one clown show to another (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LilithGardener

        There's not much difference between Buch and Gardner they essentially have the same views but Gardner is just a "rising star" the same with Beaupruz what is the difference between the rest of field? The CO GOP cannot seem to moderate its views their embracing Personhood again even after it failed epically two times on the ballot.

  •  Presidential insults (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MichaelNY, OGGoldy, wadingo

    "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

    by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:08:29 PM PST

  •  PA-SEN: Kathleen Kane/Joe Sestak (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Jacob1145, LilithGardener

    Recently I saw a very interesting poll about a hypothetical primary between Kathleen Kane and Joe Sestak with her leading 47%-24%. Even though it's far off, I think this will be one of the most exciting races of 2016 and I'm wondering who the community thinks is the strongest candidate Kane or Sestak?

  •  White vote in the South (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I used the 2008 exits to estimate what percent of the White vote Obama got in the South in 2008.  I used the Old Confederacy, but subtracted Florida and NoVa and added Kentucky.  My numbers say he got 27.5%, which probably dropped to around 25% in 2012.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:20:20 PM PST

  •  None. (0+ / 0-)

    Seriously.

    Not even in my home state (FLA).

    I'm post-politics at this point.  We're beyond repair, and I mean that as the royal "we".

    Rock on.

    •  Explain? /nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:31:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The question was posed: (0+ / 0-)

        "What races are you interested in?"

        I provided my answer.

        It came to me recently that years of activism has resulted in little more than agita and a lot of unnecessary stress in both my health, professional career, and personal relationships.

        You can only tilt at windmills for so long.  It took me quite some time, and finally some wise counsel, to stay in my lane.

        We don't have a lick of power to really change a thing.

        While depressing, it's also quite liberating to accept that fact.

        •  Defeatism (6+ / 0-)

          seems an odd mentality to have in a subgroup founded on the notion that elections have consequences. At the risk of sounding rude - and this is not my intention at all - I really am mystified as to why you're here if you believe we are truly powerless.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:57:06 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

            •  One man's reality.. (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Jacob1145, MichaelNY, sulthernao, wadingo

              is another man's misconception.

              TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

              by Le Champignon on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:36:49 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Nonsense (8+ / 0-)

              Let's all just cry that life is hard.

              Or maybe have a thimble full of sense and see the enormous positive changes of the past 50 years, since the Beatles did Ed Sullivan or Kennedy was assassinated.

              Do you have any understanding of what a different world it is for people of color, women and LGBT people just for starters.  Ten years ago gay marriage was political poison ivy.  Today the NFL and major league baseball tell a state to veto a hate law or face the consequences.

              Waaaah, I want it NOW is for three year olds.

              All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

              by tommypaine on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:15:38 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)
                Do you have any understanding of what a different world it is for people of color, women and LGBT people just for starters.  Ten years ago gay marriage was political poison ivy.
                I do.

                It didn't come without cost (to the constituency)  nor at the expense of a single vote at any level.

                All of which you refer to has been decided at the judicial level, not the legislative.

                •  And those judges? (10+ / 0-)

                  Who appointed those judges? Elected them? Did they spring full grown onto the bench?

                  Argue that elections are too stressful, too much effort for too little and uncertain a reward, but don't argue they don't matter. That's patently false.

                •  Obviously have no idea how things work (5+ / 0-)

                  The Civil Rights Act for starters was the result of Congress, not votes.  As were dozens of other laws that made things a bit better, even if not perfect.

                  Saying "we don't have a lick of power to really change a thing" is certainly true of foolish people without a clue, but "we" have enormous power and can show it many ways, voting or anything else.

                  Of course, there have always been people who cry and say they are powerless, but nobody gives a shit what such people whine about.

                  All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                  by tommypaine on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 01:04:10 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  This x5000 (26+ / 0-)

                I am so sick and tired of people pissing and moaning about how both parties are the same, nothing ever changes, the system is broken, etc.

                I would love to see some radical changes in how this country works. I would also love it if 10 million Republicans suddenly became liberal Democrats overnight. And I would love it if we suddenly had a 9-0 liberal majority on the Supreme Court. But we work with what we've got.

                Is it true income inequality is increasing, many social ills remain entrenched, upward mobility is largely phantasmagorical, money rules in politics, special interests dominate the discussion, and our leaders don't do enough to make sure our vote counts for something? Yes. It's true. It and a whole host of other problems: true, true, true.

                But one party wants to raise the minimum wage, shift the tax burden off the American middle class and the working poor, and make college more affordable -- and the other party says NO.

                One party wants to improve our education system, overhaul our immigration system, and reform our prison system -- and the other party says NO.

                One party wants to curb the influence of big money, restore transparency to the political process, and expand voting rights for all Americans -- and the other party says HELL NO.

                And need I get into all of the social issues -- from anti-discrimination laws to women's reproductive rights to marriage equality and beyond -- on which one party is on the right side of history, and the other party is flat wrong? Need I mention that one party is the party of the Voting Rights Act and the other party is the part of the Southern strategy? Need I describe how one party wants to legislate and the other party wants to filibuster, hold, and otherwise block anything and everything because of its irrational hatred of the twice-elected president and its insistence upon his illegitimacy?

                Elections have consequences. Ask Virginia. Ask New Jersey.

                Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:33:23 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  this is probably true of my volunteering (8+ / 0-)

          in the cycles where I did. I was just a cog in the machine. But without any cogs, there'd be no machine, and nothing would get done. My volunteering did little individually, but without volunteers those campaigns would've gotten a lot less traction.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:13:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  I am 66 years old.............................. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, Deja

    and live in Louisville. God forgive me but my hope is to live long enough to  someday, in the future piss, on an ex Senate Minority leader's grave. I do not wish anyone ill; I just hope Karma is a bitch and I live that long.

    The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation--HDT

    by cazcee on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:27:02 PM PST

  •  From Comment on Kentucky this weekend (15+ / 0-)

    Guest Host Bill Bryant of WKYT in Lexington, Jack Brammer of the Herald-Leader, Ronnie Ellis of CNHI, Miranda Combs of WKYT in Lexington. Please note that the regular host, Ferrell Wellman announced last week his immediate retirement. He suffered a knee injury and said that he would be off for a while, and planned to retire soon anyway.

    Gay Marriage Ruling- Judge Heyburn granted AG Jack Conway's for a temporary stay. Heyburn entered a final order ordering the state to recognize same sex marriages from other states. This stay is not a stay pending appeal, it is a stay for the state to see what it needs to do to implement the ruling. The Judge also allowed another set of plaintiffs to intervene that are asking that Kentucky be required to perform same sex marriages, so another ruling may be down the road on that. AG Conway and Gov. Beshear are considering whether to appeal. Conway only asked for a stay to implement, not to appeal to the 6th Circuit. Conway is all but certain to run for Gov in 2015, and is being hit from both sides- supporters of gay marriage did not want him to appeal at all, opponents say he is not doing enough. Also, Gov. Beshear's son Andy is running for AG, and whatever decision Beshear makes could effect him.

    The Legislature- Republicans are launching a full court press on a right to work bill. Democrats are countering with a minimum wage increase. A bill to make it easier for people that have protected orders granted passed a committee. A medical marijuana bill passed a House committee. A Senate committee passed a bill allowing the oil not containing THC derived from marijuana. The Senate bill may have a chance, but not the House bill. A Senate committee passed a bill to ban minors from buying e-cigarettes. The House Judiciary Committee passed a bill to not allowed imminent domain for the Bluegrass Pipeline. The House will begin working on the 2 year budget next week. Ronnie Ellis also reports that Sen. Rand Paul (R-Bowling Green) met with Republican legislators after testifying about restoring felon voting rights, but in that private meeting, his main concern was changing Kentucky law to allow him to run for reelection and President in 2016. He would have to choose one of them. Sen. Damon Thayer (R-Georgetown) has a bill ready to do this. There may also be a bill to reduce the number of snow make up days for schools.

    Mountain Dew- Miranda Kerr did an investigative report of people in Eastern Kentucky in Breathitt County that were using food stamps to buy large amounts of Mt. Dew and Pepsi and then were selling it for cash. She said it was not being used that much for drugs, but for living expenses.

    The Senate Race- The Grimes campaign raised over $700k in her Bill Clinton event. They are touting how it is Clinton's first appearance in 2014. Ronnie Ellis notes that Clinton is very popular in Kentucky. He said Democrats were as energized as he had ever seen. He also does not see the Rand Paul attacks at having any traction except with the GOP base. Jack Brammer also noted the national attention to Grimes- the event was on the front page of 117 newspapers around the country, and their phones have been ringing from across the country. Mitch wants to run against Obama, but Grimes want to run with Clinton. Mitch began running pro-coal radio ads.

    Governor Race- Rumor mill is that Hal Heiner is going to file for Governor soon and would name Lexington Metro Councilwoman K.C. Crosbie as his LG pick. She ran a close race for State Treasurer in 2011. Former Auditor Crit Luallen has been talking to running mates, but we seem to hear about her every couple of weeks. Jack Brammer joked that we may hear her plans before Fancy Farm (it is in August).

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:30:24 PM PST

    •  Conway just covering his bases (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, MichaelNY, wadingo

      I can understand what he's trying to do here he probably even believes in gay marriage but it's Kentucky.

    •  Makes sense for Atty. Gen. Conway... (6+ / 0-)

      To play it down the middle and ask for a stay to have time to implement the law. That way it can quietly take effect in a few weeks, he can say he ensured Kentucky had time to prepare for the ruling's implementation, and he doesn't have to comment on the merits of the ruling, much less appeal the decision.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:55:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think Conway and Beshear end up (4+ / 0-)

        appealing the decision with something mentioning that Kentucky voters approved the amendment and they are responsible for defending those laws. One interesting thing was that Conway asked for a 90 day stay and Heyburn only gave him 21 days. Since the order became final today, Conway will have 30 days to decided whether to appeal.

        This may be a good way for Matt Bevin to hit McConnell and he has already started. Judge Heyburn was recommended to the federal bench by McConnell. I would not be surprised to see some ads on this. Some Republicans that dislike Mitch might also use it as an opportunity to spread rumors about him as well.

        http://www.courier-journal.com/...

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:18:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Awesome state summary - thank you! nt (0+ / 0-)

      "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” — William Arthur Ward

      by LilithGardener on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 02:52:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Mississippi (12+ / 0-)

    Happy to see we have someone with a record of victory in blood red territory in the event McDaniel wins the primary then melts down spectacularly. It's better than a some dude (or worse, a LaRouchie, like is a possibility in Texas). As for Gene Taylor, it is disappointing he's running as a Republican, but he has a much better chance there than as a Democrat in the general and he would still be miles better than Palazzo (from the Mississippi coast and then votes against hurricane relief for someone else, wtf), though I don't see him having much of a path to victory with the hard-right Tea Party electorate he'll face in the primary, especially as a former Democrat.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:40:27 PM PST

    •  I'm sad to see Taylor switch (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, WisJohn, Possible Liberal

      But I guess MS-04 is done voting for Democrats at the congressional level. Seriously, the last Democrat to win that region was probably Adlai Stevenson in '56.

      I too can't stand Palazzo and wouldn't mind Taylor turfing him out. I just don't know if he can in a GOP primary.

      "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

      by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:59:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I Am Not Sure.... (4+ / 0-)

      About one point here.

      I think Taylor's political resurrection is a longshot either way, but I think he has no shot in a GOP primary, and I actually think his chances, such as they are, were at least fractionally better in a general.

      I think he loses the primary to Palazzo 2-to-1. I don't think he'd win in a general, either. But his loss in 2010 (granted, as the incumbent) was only 52-47, if memory serves. He'd do worse this time (lack of incumbency), but I'll bet he'd do better than he will in the primary, where he gets smooshed-ed.

      "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 08:01:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I couldn't agree more (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        I just don't see Republican primary voters voting in a man who was recently a Democrat over a conservative Republican, least of all in the Deep South.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 12:52:03 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  MS has open primaries, nt (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 06:56:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That only gets you so far (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Partisans are still more inclined to vote in their own primary than to cross over.

            •  He's certainly not a shoo-in (0+ / 0-)

              I think he can be competitive.  Palazzo only got 15556 votes in the 2010 primary he won, because nobody expected the GOP primary to mean anything.  2012 primary turnout was dominated by the presidential race (Santorum won statewide, counties in the district went for Santorum, Romney and Gingrich).  

              I think Gene Taylor voters include a high fraction of folks who, almost by definition, are unopposed to ballot-splitting, or cross-party primary participation.   He may fall flat on his face, and have to continue his career as a port commissioner, but I think a high fraction of folks who voted for Gene in the past have voted in a GOP primary before this cycle.  For instance, in 2008 he got 75% of the general election vote, meaning that he won a majority among the 67% voting for McCain in the general.  Palazzo hasn't exactly covered himself with glory thus far, I think that a 2014 electorate, even in a GOP primary, might well decide to go back to the local hero, over the local lightweight.  It will be a turnout battle in the primary, and Taylor hasn't left himself much time, but he's got 30-odd years of connections in the district.

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 04:42:14 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Glad we have good candidates in MS-Sen and KS-Sen (5+ / 0-)

    That's always a good sign.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:43:20 PM PST

  •  FL-05 that is entirely based in Duval (0+ / 0-)

    based on my configurations and calculations Obama won it 51.8%-48.2%. '08 numbers, 52.3%-47.7%. It has a light blue lean. Corrine would be toast here, but someone like current JAX mayor Alvin Brown will do very well here.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 06:51:46 PM PST

  •  Just some perspective on MS Senate. (12+ / 0-)

    Mississippi has a PVI of R+9. Here are some states (and their PVIs) where Democrats have at least one Senator

    Alaska - R+12
    Arkansas - R+14
    Indiana - R+5
    Louisiana - R+12
    Missouri - R+5
    Montana - R+7
    North Dakota - R+10
    West Virginia - R+13

    I know there are varying dynamics in each state, besides PVI, that seriously affect a Democrat's chance....but I don't think it is unthinkable that Childers could win in MS. Yes, it is much more of an inelastic state than most on this list, but it is possible if McDaniels, who is quite the neo-confederate, ends up winning the primary, that African American voters could be energized to turnout for Childers. Plus Childers might be able to pull in just enough of the white vote, because of his conservative credentials, to eek out a win.

    •  *eke out (8+ / 0-)

      Adjusting for Nate Silver's Elasticity...

      Mississippi = R+14.3
      Alaska = R+10.1 (including Palin effect)
      Arkansas = R+13.9 (but bluer downballot)
      Indiana = R+5.1 (should be redder since 2008 is a fluke)
      Louisiana = R+15.2
      Missouri = R+5 (but bluer downballot)
      Montana = R+6.3
      North Dakota = R+8.5
      West Virginia = R+11.3 (but bluer downballot)

      Winning Mississippi is probably slightly tougher than winning Louisiana and a bit tougher than Arkansas.  Nowhere else we have won is comparable.  With that said, it's not impossible.  But I think we should be aware how much elasticity matters.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:35:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Can you show your math? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, gabjoh

        Curious to see how you adjusted things.

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:45:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  are you a math teacher now? (5+ / 0-)
          •  Here, using his post (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Audrid, lordpet8, Alibguy, wadingo

            http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

            All I did was divide by the elasticity number given.  I believe (I'm no math expert, although I will proudly say that I got a Pass in my Pass/No Pass Statistics class and a 3 on the Calculus AB AP test) that's how the numbers are supposed to be used; I vaguely remember a 538 article from right after the 2012 election showing which states would have given Romney his best path to 270 using both the final results and the elasticity.

            So 9/0.63=14.3, and so forth.  All the numbers it gives out are reasonable using simple division.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:51:06 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Also, I just took a look at all the red states (0+ / 0-)

              using this metric to see what are really the toughest for us to win.  I used 2-cycle Ideological PVI, which is my own creation and gives third party votes to ideologically similar major parties which I think works better in presidential races where both liberals and conservatives have third-party options, except for Alaska and Utah where 2-cycle is more skewed than 1-cycle.  

              Wyoming: R+20.6
              Alabama: R+20.5
              Oklahoma: R+19.9
              Utah: R+18.3
              Idaho: R+16.3
              Louisiana: R+14.9
              Mississippi: R+13.9 (so we'd be competing in an open seat in an R+14 state, which is very very tough even against a Confederate sympathizer)
              Kentucky: R+12.4*
              Arkansas: R+12.4*
              Nebraska: R+11.8

              Asterisk=Democratic party is much stronger downballot

              Other key 2014 red states:
              West Virginia: R+10.9*
              Montana: R+7.4
              Alaska: R+8
              Georgia: R+7.4
              Texas (for those who think Davis has a chance): R+9.75

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:55:44 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Finally, the blue states (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Gygaxian, wadingo

                Due to the fact that many of the bluest states are some of the most elastic and for many red states it's the opposite, there are 7 states that are harder for us to win than it is for Republicans to win Vermont.

                I used 2008 numbers for New York and New Jersey due to Sandy.

                Hawaii: D+15.5 (Obama effect)
                Vermont: D+12.9
                Maryland: D+11.4
                New York: D+11.1
                California: D+8.8
                Rhode Island: D+8.7
                Delaware: D+8.4
                Massachusetts: D+8.2 (and now you see why Scott Brown's win wasn't quite as shocking as it seemed.  A special election in a bad climate in a D+8 seat is still hard for us to lose, but it makes a bit more sense.)
                Illinois: D+7.8 (there's probably some Obama effect)
                Connecticut: D+7.1

                Maine doesn't make it on the last because it's too elastic to be higher than D+5.  Everything else on the list is below D+5 using elasticity.

                21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                by jncca on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:05:31 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  I was being snarky towards David, (0+ / 0-)

              because he asked for your working. :P

      •  I think NS's elasticity model.. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Jacob1145

        is pretty oversimplistic. PVI's and elasticity models are excellent for presidential elections and for statewide races in swing states/democratic states, but red states have been "weird" for decades. And even he would freely admit that his models aren't perfect. Ask Senator Rick Berg, R-ND.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

        by Le Champignon on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:24:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, it's simplistic (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          That's why I pointed out that some states are bluer locally.  The model was intended for the presidential election only, where I think it works well.  But then again, PVI is also based off of only the presidential election.  We don't have any formulas for downballot elections because there's far more variance.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:28:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Someone should write a formula.. (0+ / 0-)

            for PVI that includes senate and house races as well. It'd be far more useful than the current PVI statistic, which I've often criticized.

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

            by Le Champignon on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:35:13 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Single formula is hard (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              most organizations use a DPI (democratic performance index).

              Making your own is pretty easy. Look at results and pick the races that are indicative. Maybe Gov 2010 is a perfect worst case, and Sen 2012 is a decent apple-to-apples. I usually like to string a couple of bad races together and weight the most recent ones. Shows you what the worst case looks like.

              It's a brand new rock.

              by RevolutionRock on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:52:59 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Obama's win in Indiana 2008 was flukey (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But the state is elastic, no question.

        26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 01:00:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  My main problem is not so much PVI (9+ / 0-)

      but the fact that MS is the least elastic state in the union

      http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

      We'd need a perfect storm: McDaniel defeating Cochran followed by a McDaniel implosion plus Childers running the best campaign of MS Democratic in a lifetime.

      Childers will need to win portion of very conservative leaning Republicans to pull it off.

      "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

      by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 09:04:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Elasticity is the big problem (4+ / 0-)

      Democrats can regularly win a solid chunk of the vote in all those states mentioned.  In Mississippi Obama won just 11% of the white vote in 2012 and even good white Dem candidates struggle to crack 20% in the state with whites.

    •  The white is more anti-Democratic in MS (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, clevelandpacha

      than in those states.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 05:38:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  President Obama endorses Rep. Veasey (9+ / 0-)

    Veasey is facing a primary challenge, so this is pro forma fire support from the White House. Story here.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:27:52 PM PST

  •  House of Cards (early S2 spoiler) (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacob1145, Gygaxian, LordMike, wadingo

    I know this is slightly off-topic but Frank Underwood asserting his authority as President of the Senate to arrest the Republicans and bring them to their desks in chains was the most awesome thing that has ever happened in fictional Congress.

    If Republicans took control of the Senate could Biden legally do that?  Of course Biden is too nice to do that but just hypothetically, I wonder.

  •  Definitely interested in FL-13 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacob1145, MichaelNY, pademocrat, wadingo

    Frustrating that there isnt more polling here, but polling a special can be tricky anyway.

    It seems like Sink is doing well, but who knows. Still more than a week left.

    A Sink win wont mean much for Nov, but it would be really great news for Dems. A pickup in a difficult political climate in a 50-50 district. As someone here noted, when we do eventually win back the House, hopefully in 2016, we will need to win seats like this. And maybe a win will puncture some of the doom and gloom narrative in the media about Dems chances this fall.

  •  As always, I'm interested in Utah elections (0+ / 0-)

    A prospect that leaves me more and more pessimistic every week. I wish that Utah was politically more like Utah. I'd love to be the Arizona Dems, to be honest. Or the Texas Dems.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:46:02 PM PST

  •  VA-Sen: Sen. Mark Warner was a laugh on NPR (0+ / 0-)

    on my dad's favorite radio program, "Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me!"  It's a fun show with quizzes, eclectic guests, and the most clever hosts since the Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour.  It's worth a listen:

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:13:22 PM PST

  •  Mississippi and Kansas (8+ / 0-)

    I've been thinking about MS a lot recently, and I really do like our chances there. It's going to be an exciting race in the quintessential confederate state.

    I've also been thinking about Kansas Senate and Governor. Obviously our chances at the governorship look strong. Brownback is in a really bad spot right now, and I don't think the discrimination bill did him any favors, even if it never crossed his desk. But the Senate race, I still think it's beyond us ... unless...

    ... unless the Tea Partier wins and there's a strong enough backlash against him and Brownback to cause moderate Republicans, of which there are many in Kansas, to side with Democrats. I'm talking campaigning, endorsing, outright mutiny against the Tea Party faction. Kansas is a Republican state, but it's not a conservative state (much like Kentucky is a conservative state, but not a Republican state). It'll be the longest of long-shots for us, but we have a decent candidate, and they have two shitty ones.

    I'm very glad that we got people who we can be proud of in many of these races. The potential for Akin'ing is very, very high this cycle. CO, GA, MS, KS, and NC should all be placed on Code Red on the Akin Alert chart. We just have to kick back and wait for one of them to start talking about magic vaginas or the unjust war against the noble Confederacy.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:33:25 PM PST

    •  Was just browsing the 2008 and 2012 MS exit polls (5+ / 0-)

      2008 racial breakdown of the vote:
      62% White
      33% Black
      5% Latino/Other

      2012:
      59% White
      36% Black
      5% Latino/Other

      If the 2014 turnout by race were the same as 2012 and the Black vote goes 93-7 (a reasonable number) for Childers, he'd need about 22% of the white vote to win.  Of course this seems VERY optimistic with Obama not on the ballot to drive black turnout in 2014.

      If you use the whiter 2008 racial breakdown numbers with the Black vote going 93-7 for Childers he'd need about 26% or so of the white vote.

      Obama took 96% of the black vote and 11% of the white vote in 2012.  In the 2008 Senate race Democrat Musgrove took 92% of the black vote and 18% of the white vote.  

      Basically MS Dems would have to hope black voters turnout in numbers similar to at least 2008, draw at least 93% or higher share of the black vote and attract about a quarter of the white vote.  Very much a tall order for a Democrat in a U.S. Senate race.  Not impossible, but damn hard.

    •  I do agree with you though (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, pademocrat, wadingo, betelgeux

      My gut feeling is that Senate Dems do manage to snag at least one GOP-held Senate seat.  The GOP has a bad habit of pissing away a couple seats each cycle by nominating baggers in seats they have no business losing.  It could be KY, MS or GA this year.  I also think they fail in ousting Hagen in NC due to their horrible field of candidates.

  •  MI-12: Dingell v. Dingell (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, WisJohn, betelgeux

    Okay, now that I've gotten your attention, I'm actually far more excited about the MI-12 primary than I thought I'd be.  I usually pretty blase about safe seats like this, and particularly if the seat is a suburban or rural seat (primaries in cities I've found to be more entertaining if only because you often get more characters involved), but I think this race will be interesting for a number of reasons.

    First, in Debbie's announcement, today, I'm really liking how she's both praising her husband and also be pretty clear that there are some major issues on which they've disagreed, and I'm particularly happy she's different on the issue of gun control.  From the Detroit News, this morning:

    One difference between the couple is their position on gun control. John Dingell is a lifelong supporter of the right to bear arms, while Debbie Dingell has spoken out for gun control measures.

    “That is an issue that we do not agree on,” she said. “We come from very different perspectives.”

    What else gets me interested about this race is how the dynamic of the redrawn district will pay out.  Once the 15th, it still includes the major population centers of Dearborn and Ann Arbor, but it dropped all of Monroe County and takes in quite a bit more of Detroit's Downriver suburbs.  The possible match-up of Ann Arbor (Rebekah Warren) and Dearborn (Debbie Dingell) will be a juxtaposition of college town progressivism against labor progressivism.

    EDIT: Damn, as I'm typing this, I'm still seeing that widely panned commercial American for Prosperity which essentially blames Gary Peters vote for the ACA for a Michigan woman's cancer.  I thought they'd taken the thing down.

  •  Volusia Co. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    When I looks at their votes by prescient, it does not show Obama or Romney vote at all!! And I can't even find a map of the prescient. Some of these counties renumbered them after the census.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 08:53:54 PM PST

    •  Try this link (0+ / 0-)

      It's a huge file and can be difficult to navigate, but it does show Obama-Romney numbers by precinct.  FYI - my precinct number is 705 in Volusia.  As far as a map of voter precincts I'm not aware of any.  Let me know if you manage to find one.                                

      http://www.volusiaelections.org/...

      •  I have this very PDF (0+ / 0-)

        the thing is some of these counties in Florida got their precinct renumbered. I dont know is Volusia is one of them Palm Beach BOE where very helpful cause they have a list of the precinct the got renumbered, and show their new numbers. I just looking for the prescient that boarders Seminole Co.

        Orange County prescient map is so tough to read, it can put a real strain on your eyes.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 09:25:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  PA-06, NY-21 (4+ / 0-)

    Is anyone else worried about these districts?

    PA-06- In this light red district that was opened up by GOP congressman Jim Gerlach, a candidate arose quickly, an Ex-Republican turned Democrat who is fairly centrist which would be a good fit for this district, Mike Parrish. He also raised a good amount of money for only being in the race a few weeks in the 3rd Quarter. And he has DCCC and Pelosi support, but Manan Trivedi has ran for the seat twice already and has failed, partially because what I believe is "weird name syndrome", it's nothing against the guy but independent voters who aren't educated on the candidates could find his unique name as a turn off and vote for the Republican candidate who has a pretty generic name, Ryan Costello, assuming he is the GOP nominee on election day. Am I the only one who feels like Parrish is the way to go? Even if he turns out to be too centrist for the party he can always get primaried by a better Democrat later on down the road when this seat is safer for a more liberal democrat, that's how I feel about Jennifer Garrison in OH-06.  But if we want to retake the House we have to compete where we can with candidates who have a shot at winning.

    And in NY-21 I'm worried about the North Country's Democratic pick to replace Bill Owens, Aaron Woolf, this guy doesn't scream top tier recruit to me. And it seems like every decent candidate other than Woolf has declined to run. I'm worried that this seat may become like UT-04 or NC-07 if Democrats don't field a candidate here other than a hippie grocery store owner.

    18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04 (Gowdy). "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." - John Lennon

    by SCDem4 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 09:10:00 PM PST

    •  Trivedi's had two shots at the district (6+ / 0-)

      Sometimes a third shot turns out to be a win, but it seems highly unlikely in this case. Particularly since he's struggled to keep up in fundraising the last two cycles.

      NY-21 is looking like an epic clusterfuck in the making.

    •  I have both tilt R (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SCDem4, Jacob1145, MichaelNY, R30A

      I think Parrish wins the primary with a good campaign. Trivedi starts with more name rec, but he's an unimpressive retread. It's still a Romney district that has been held by the GOP for a long time. I have it only tilt R (as opposed to lean) because the Dem wouldn't have to outrun Obama by all that much.

      NY21 is bizarre to me. Dems had a bunch of strong candidates. They all bailed, and now they have a hippie who runs an organic food store in Brooklyn.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 07:47:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  NY-21 is a huge disappointment (0+ / 0-)

      I think it was yesterday I said "I cant believe we gonna piss away this seat". Theupside when it comes to NY-21 is that this is a district Obama did pretty good in, and we're likely to get it back in 2016 with HRC on top of the ticket, should we lose it this year.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 03:41:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Goldwater nearly lost in 1980 of all the years (8+ / 0-)

    He won by just 49.46% to 48.38%

    His Democratic opponent was a businessman by the name of Bill Shultz. Looks like Goldwater only won thanks to the Reagan landslide and winning heavily Maricopa county. I guess Goldwater's image as the head of the conservative movement had pretty much fizzled as Reagan to over the reigns.

    http://www.ourcampaigns.com/...

    "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

    by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 09:20:57 PM PST

  •  2016 DNC taking it's talents to South Beach? (0+ / 0-)

    Miami could and should be the location for 2016. It's a no brainer.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 09:45:26 PM PST

    •  wmmiv said that the old Cuban populace (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv, Jacob1145, KingTag, wadingo

      who have a lot of influence in the hospitality industry will make it a living hell.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 09:57:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  big convention = big money (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wadingo

        the city and county mayor (both Cubans Republicans) have sent applications to host the event. These old geezers in the exile community are losing their power politically on the state. It's a huge reason why Obama won the state twice. We're able to grow a wedge between the generational Cubans, where the younger generation are becoming more and more Democratic. Not to mention the growth of non-Cuban Hispanics, who are overwhelmingly Democratic. These old geezers are literally dying off now. The faster they die off, the more South Florida becomes blue, along with rest of the state. Which is good for us.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 10:07:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Why a no-brainer? (13+ / 0-)

      A hurricane could wash the convention out.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 10:00:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  My bet is that DNC 2016 (5+ / 0-)

      will be held in Florida, Texas or Ohio. I also think that President Obama might like Chicago for sentimental reasons, but I am just guessing, but then Miami may have DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz as a big proponent.

      On the RNC front, I would love to get camera reactions of some of the religious conservatives walking down the strip getting handed those cards that are distributed there. But, on the other hand, you may see some of them take the cards and call the numbers. I would also predict a big spike in business at the brothels in Pahrump that week.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 10:16:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Convention should be no where near Gulf Coast (6+ / 0-)

      The threat of a hurricane is too real and their huge distractions if they happen and disrupt our whole message. I've been hearing a lot about Columbus which would be great right in the biggest swing state of them all or Philly/Pittsburgh.

    •  Politically a good spot, weather not so much (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Jacob1145, wadingo

      Just look at what hurricane season did to the 2012 RNC in Florida.  It's a risky place to have a convention right in the middle of hurricane season.

    •  Ugh (0+ / 0-)

      Next I shouldn't post something like this if folks gonna try to nag on me so they can get a recommend comments. Should not have post this to begin with.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 04:44:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd prefer Austin (0+ / 0-)

      We need to stab at the belly of the beast. The seat of power for Republicans is in Texas. Even making that state competitive would be a massive blow to Republicans. By holding your convention there, you're setting up a narrative that the state is competitive. That increases voter turnout among our core constituencies, and serves as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

      It's not like HRC will be having trouble winning election, so she might as well try to help out downballot Democrats by campaigning in states that are friendly to the Clintons (KY, TX, AR, MO, all these come to mind).

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 07:25:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think you can say having the convention (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jacob1145, Alibguy, jncca, MichaelNY, wadingo

        In any one state sets up the narrative that it is competitive.

        Just off the top of my head I'm thinking of the RNC in NYC in 2004. Plus, conventions really don't make a state more or less competitive, as we've seen this past election, actually most of them. They're becoming just big shows for the die hards and to get money from donors, and not really something to help win an election in whichever state is chosen.

        22, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

        by aggou on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 08:31:07 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wasn't RNC 2004 in NYC (6+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          aggou, jncca, MichaelNY, gabjoh, wadingo, askew

          supposed to remind voters of Bush + 9/11 and how strong Bush was as a leader during a crisis? It didn't make NY remotely competitive, but I guess you could argue there was an electoral meaning to sticking the RNC at the heart of the 9/11 attacks.

          •  True, good point I had heard that somewhere. (4+ / 0-)

            You could also point to Boston and the DNC. I don't remember why they chose it, in 2004 other than Kerry being from there.

            22, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

            by aggou on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 09:27:27 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Cause at the time it was convenient for them (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY, wadingo

            to use 9/11 as a backdrop for his campaign. Plus the Iraq War that Republicans were responsible for was in it's second year. Using for those two things to show how much of a "leader" George Bush was. So that's why they had it in NYC. New York never going to be in play. Financially it was great for the city, downside was all of these Republicans being in town. Thank God Bush was a massive failure.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 09:45:37 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Sure it does (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          In fact, I have precedent. The 2012 DNC was held in North Carolina. That was taken as a sign by the Villagers that the campaign intended to compete there.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 09:14:40 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Austin is declining to bid (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo

        It's been big news locally all week. Mayor Leffingwell mentioned public transit as a reason in his public announcement.

        24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 11:29:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Got a link? (0+ / 0-)

          Austin's public transport is the best in the south, what the hell.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 12:07:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Austin's public transportation absolutely sucks (0+ / 0-)

            I have no idea what you're talking about, and as a local shouldn't you have access to our own local media?

            http://www.statesman.com/...

            Austin could meet the requirements for public safety, advanced technology systems and hotel accommodations, he said, but is limited by the size requirements for a venue and a lack of a public transit system.
            Austin's history on public transportation is the worst of the big cities in Texas, by a good measure.

            Houston's metrorail is extremely successful and is rapidly being expanded in partnership between Mayor Parker and USDOT. Houston's bus system works well. Houston has a longstanding bike share program that is well functioning with stations that are well placed.

            DFW has all of those same things.

            San Antonio started its plans for rail much later than Austin, but it has much larger community support already and the lines that are planned are significantly better with the logistics already being worked out for construction in the next year or two. San Antonio also bikeshare, and has had it for much longer.

            Austin has been trying to get a functioning public transportation system for over two decades. CapMetro has been in financial trouble for that entire time. Austin's only rail line is a massive disappointment in ridership that should be entirely scrapped as it presents a huge problem for path dependency. The problems with it include, but are not limited to, an absolutely bad route derived from the fact that it was simply a co-opted preexisting rail line, it wasn't double tracked (thus reducing frequency), it is owned and operated by the hapless CapMetro, etc.

            Austin's current discussions for a directly city owned rail line  have been prolonged and hijacked by private interests. The current proposals have deliberately avoided the most populated parts of town (the Drag, for one) so that it can go where? The Mueller housing development? Are you kidding me? Just another example of city leaders catering to housing developers.

            And all of this doesn't cover that the original line that was voted down a decade ago would be currently getting about 40,000 riders a day under the federal estimates from back then. We voted down a rail line that would have been one of the best in the country in favor of a line that is lucky to get 1/10 of that ridership in a day and we're now discussing a new and distinct line that can't be expanded outside the core for commuters because CapMetro would shit themselves a brick from competition. Just. Great. What a waste of taxpayer money.

            Austin's highway infrastructure sucks. It is routinely rated as having either the first or second worst traffic in the entire country after accounting for metropolitan area size. The only city that can compete with Austin is Honolulu, and now they're getting a great expansion of their public transportation system. Oh, and the entire state budget for TxDot is used in DFW, Houston, and San Antonio. Austin, it seems, has to make deals with private companies to build toll roads. Every single highway expansion project in Austin over the past decade has been tolled. And every single expansion going forward over the next decade is either a new tolled project or adding tolled lanes to existing capacity. Yeah... that's a smart idea.

            Oh, and Austin was the last major city to get bikeshare (just a couple of months ago), despite having the densest core of all Texas major cities by far. Did you know we have more people living within a 5 mile radius of our city hall than any other Texas city? Yet our public transportation system isn't worth the spit in my hand.

            This isn't even discussing other southern cities that have better options: Charlotte, Miami, Atlanta, Norfolk, New Orleans, Orlando, and Tampa. That means that the only southern cities of significant size that we might be better than are: Raleigh, Jacksonville, Richmond, Birmingham, Little Rock, Nashville, and Memphis. And those last two I know nothing about regarding their public transportation so for all I know they could have better integration of their various modes. Oh, and also note that the ones that we're better than are nowhere near as dense as Austin is, so ofcourse we're better. They really don't have the pressing need that we do.

            24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 12:32:15 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Be careful with Florida (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      Hurricane season can mess up a convention. Just ask the Republicans...

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 07:44:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I say St Louis (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, WisJohn, gabjoh, askew

      1) It's got a well liked Democratic Governor
      2) It's an important swing state that Obama almost won in 2008 and could be winnable in 2016
      3) It's got great resources, such as a good mass transit system and plenty of hotels
      4) It's a swim away from the President's state
      5) It's centrally located for much of the country
      6) It's got a great baseball team and a great music scene (especially jazz/ blues)
      7) So much American history there. Lewis and Clark! (Okay, also Dred Scott but no place is perfect)
      8) The Arch!
      9) Casinos! 24 Hour Clubs in unincorporated Illinois! Budweiser Brewery!

      Sure it's hot and muggy in the summer time and there's the occasional tornado. But really any place south of Portland, Oregon is crappy in August.

    •  I have a soft spot for Indianapolis or Chicago (5+ / 0-)

      obviously. I would like to be able to attend.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 01:52:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Worked on an Indiana Senate map (7+ / 0-)

    from a Dem perspective, but with the caveat that like the Kentucky Senate, only counties with populations larger than the size of one district can be split. Here is what I came up with:

    Statewide:
     photo IndianaSenateNoSplits_zpsd298d307.jpg

    Indy Metro:
     photo IndianaSenateIndy_zpsd5994b56.jpg

    Northern Indiana
     photo IndianaSenateRegion_zps7931fac0.jpg

    I came up with 9 Solid D, 7 Likely D, 3 Lean D, 7 Tossups, 1 Lean GOP, 2 Likely GOP, 21 Solid GOP. Also keeps three black districts, along with two other minority majority seats. It gives Dems a path to victory, but would probably lead to small GOP majority.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 10:03:28 PM PST

  •  ACU ratings came out today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Jacob1145, gabjoh

    only one dem got a zero (Braley) which i thought was unusual. Also, the standards for grading have gotten harder. Fewer Rs in the 90s than in the past.

  •  WI: Walker henchman accused of sexual harassment (9+ / 0-)

    The Majority Leader of the Wisconsin State Assembly Bill Kramer was accused of sexual harassment and will possibly resign soon. Walker sure surrounds himself with sketchy people.

    •  If Kramer resigns from the Assembly altogether (0+ / 0-)

      ...that's going to result in a special election in AD-97, a Waukesha County-based Safe R district that should elect another Republican. (The district includes of the southern half of the City of Waukesha and extends southward to the Town of Mukwonago in southern Waukesha County)

      At the very least, Kramer (currently the #2 Republican in the Wisconsin Assembly) is likely going to lose his leadership position.

      There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 11:43:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This speaks more of the Assembly GOP caucus... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Jacob1145, gabjoh, wadingo

      ...than it does of Scott Walker, since it was Kramer's peers in the Assembly GOP caucus that elected Kramer to be majority leader.

      We know Walker has a long history of surrounding himself with sketchy people (Darlene Wink, Kelly Rindfleisch, Tim Russell, etc.), but Kramer's alleged sexual harassment says more about the Republicans in the Wisconsin Assembly than it does about Walker.

      There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 11:51:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  different attempts at a nonpartisan MI in 2021 (4+ / 0-)

    What do you think?

    Version 1:
     photo nonpartisanMI1_zps1eaebb99.jpg
     photo nonpMI1SE_zps6492d828.jpg
    MI-01: 49%
    MI-02: 52.4%
    MI-03: 45.7%
    MI-04: 48.4%
    MI-05: 60.8%
    MI-06: 53.1%
    MI-07: 56.1%
    MI-08: 49.1%
    MI-09: 54.9%
    MI-10: 60.2%
    MI-11: 59.5%
    MI-12: 76.4% Obama, 51% black by VAP
    MI-13: 76.3% Obama, 50.1% black by VAP

    Version 2:
     photo nonpartisanMI2_zps1b4659b5.jpg
     photo nonpMI2SE_zps37b5667a.jpg
    MI-01: 53.8% Obama
    MI-02: 50.5%
    MI-03: 45.8%
    MI-04: 49.4%
    MI-05: 58.2%
    MI-06: 53.5%
    MI-07: 56.8%
    MI-08 (Orange): 53.8%
    MI-09: 49.8%
    MI-10: 58%
    MI-11: 59.5%
    MI-12: 76.4% Obama, 51% black by VAP
    MI-13: 76.3% Obama, 50.1% black by VAP

    Version 3:
     photo nonpartisanMI3_zps5e60166f.jpg
     photo nonpMI3SE_zpsf4b60ec9.jpg
    MI-01: 49.7% Obama
    MI-02: 52%
    MI-03: 45.9%
    MI-04: 49.7%
    MI-05: 52.2%
    MI-06 (Orange): 53.4%
    MI-07: 64.5%
    MI-08 (Teal): 54.3%
    MI-09: 49.8%
    MI-10: 58%
    MI-11: 59.5%
    MI-12 (Yellow in second image): 76.4% Obama, 51% black by VAP
    MI-13: 76.3% Obama, 50.1% black by VAP

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 12:15:00 AM PST

    •  first map (3+ / 0-)

      I really don't like the district that goes from Midland to the UP. Those areas have nothing in common. I think it's ok to put anything north of Bay City in with the UP. I'd prefer to see Saginaw, Midland, and Bay City in a single district, but your first map splits them into 3.

      Likewise the Macomb-to-Alpena district doesn't work for me. Detroit burbs shouldn't be mixed with up north areas.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 07:58:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The top tier (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Setsuna Mudo

        The top tier of townships of Macomb County may as well be part of the Thumb, maybe even the north exurbs of Oakland County, they aren't urbanized like the rest of the tri-counties.  So that doesn't bother me much.

        I also thinking sticking Midland in with Northern Michigan seems a bit much, but would Bay City and Saginaw be enough to dilute very Republican Midland County?  Also, in this scenario, what would you do with Flint?

        •  what to do with Flint was difficult (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo

          there's a lot of places around it that don't really seem like they should be with it, and I really didn't want to put it in with Lansing, but it ended up happening in one map. And drawing it like it is now is just a vote sink for a Republican map.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 09:22:33 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  ok (0+ / 0-)

          Map is still a work in progress, and it's based on 13 districts with old population numbers.

          The southern tier of MI1 goes Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Arenac, and the 3 northernmost townships in Bay.

          MI5 is the rest of Bay, all of Midland except the 4 westernmost townships, all of Saginaw except the 4 westernmost townships, and all of Genesee except the 2 southernmost townships. Very compact and I think it's a good community of interest. Those areas are probably growing slowly enough that you might not even need to cut off the rural ends of those counties by 2020.

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 09:29:10 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  when the state loses another district (0+ / 0-)

        the 1st is going to have to come down further south, and I was experimenting with how I'd do that. I really wanted to try something different that what there is now.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 09:20:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Only Criticism (3+ / 0-)

      My only criticism is that you'd have to find a way to do far fewer county county cuts, particularly outside southeast Michigan.  And, it shouldn't that difficult given how sparsely populated some of these counties are.  

      I wish I could find the maps for the Michigan Citizens' Redistricting Comeptition.  Each of them would have been a good base to play off of.

    •  Ooh, I have one of these myself (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I'm really excited about it. Though any nonpartisan map of Michigan would unite the Lansing metro area (Ingham, Eaton and Clinton counties).

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 01:07:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thought Exercise: The Perfect Senate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KyleinWA

    Here's something to make y'all dig deep into your knowledge of political entities.

    Your challenge: Appoint all 100 Senators to your liking. They must be alive and viable more-or-less serious candidates for public office (i. e. no Some Dudes - Ashley Judd and Steve Stockman are both O. K., Jimmy McMillan is not).

    The catch: There must be 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans, with at most a total of two Senators not being members of one of the parties but caucusing with them. All must belong to the party they currently belong to (Chafee and Crist are Democrats, Gene Taylor is a Republican, Larry Pressler's an independent).

    For your convenience, my choices, that could be used as a template instead of typing all the states:

    AL:
    Richard Shelby (R)
    Bradley Byrne (R)

    AK:
    Mark Begich (D)
    Lisa Murkowski (R)

    AZ:
    Raúl Grijalva (D)
    Ed Pastor (D)

    AR:
    Vic Snyder (D)
    Marion Berry (D)

    CA:
    Zoe Lofgren (D)
    George Miller (D)

    CO:
    Jared Polis (D)
    Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R)

    CT:
    Jodi Rell (R)
    Chris Shays (R)

    DE:
    Mike Castle (R)
    Chris Coons (D)

    FL:
    Alan Grayson (D)
    Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

    GA:
    John Lewis (D)
    Michelle Nunn (D)

    HI:
    Brian Schatz (D)
    Charles Djou (R)

    ID:
    Mike Simpson (R)
    Larry Echo Hawk (D)

    IL:
    Jan Schakowsky (D)
    Ray LaHood (R)

    IN:
    Richard Lugar (R)
    André Carson (D)

    IA:
    Tom Latham (R)
    Terry Branstad (R)

    KS:
    Kathleen Sebelius (D)
    Nancy Kassebaum (R)

    KY:
    Steve Beshear (D)
    Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)

    LA:
    Mary Landrieu (D)
    Vance McAllister (R)

    ME:
    Olympia Snowe (R)
    Susan Collins (R)

    MD:
    Heather Mizeur (D)
    Connie Morella (R)

    MA:
    Elizabeth Warren (D)
    William Weld (R)

    MI:
    Vern Ehlers (R)
    Rebekah Warren (D)

    MN:
    Al Franken (D)
    Arne Carlson (R)

    MS:
    Gene Taylor (R)
    Thad Cochran (R)

    MO:
    John Danforth (R)
    Robin Carnahan (D)

    MT:
    Jon Tester (D)
    Denise Juneau (D)

    NE:
    Lee Terry (R)
    Shane Osborn (R)

    NV:
    Dean Heller (R)
    Harry Reid (D)

    NH:
    Charlie Bass (R)
    Scott Brown (R)

    NJ:
    Christine Todd Whitman (R)
    Rush Holt (D)

    NM:
    Tom Udall (D)
    Susana Martinez (R)

    NY:
    Jerrold Nadler (D)
    Richard Hanna (R)

    NC:
    Walter Jones Jr. (R)
    Brad Miller (D)

    ND:
    Heidi Heitkamp (D)
    Byron Dorgan (D)

    OH:
    Sherrod Brown (D)
    Steve LaTourette (R)

    OK:
    J. C. Watts (R)
    Dan Boren (D)

    OR:
    Ron Wyden (D)
    Jeff Merkley (D)

    PA:
    Phil English (R)
    James Greenwood (R)

    RI:
    Ken Block (R)
    Allan Fung (R)

    SC:
    Jim Clyburn (D)
    Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D)

    SD:
    Rick Weiland (D)
    Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)

    TN:
    Steve Cohen (D)
    Bob Corker (R)

    TX:
    Lloyd Doggett (D)
    Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R)

    UT:
    Jon Huntsman (R)
    Rocky Anderson (I-D)

    VT:
    Bernie Sanders (I-D)
    Jim Douglas (R)

    VA:
    John Warner (R)
    Tom Davis (R)

    WA:
    Jim McDermott (D)
    Dave Reichert (R)

    WV:
    Jay Rockefeller (D)
    Shelley Moore Capito (R)

    WI:
    Tammy Baldwin (D)
    Russ Feingold (D)

    WY:
    Mike Enzi (R)
    Alan Simpson (R)

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 02:19:50 AM PST

    •  There aren't 50 Republican senators (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145, bythesea, wadingo, betelgeux

      to my liking, so I won't make my brain reel by trying to pick 50.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 02:44:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Too many "too reasonable" people (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145

      I would be glad to have such Senate, but in reality - there are too much "bland ideologues" on both sides of political aisle. Your list contains a lot of reasonable moderates, of which there are few in Senate (or Congress as a whole) now. In realty - the Senate (and House) is polarized between "far left" and "far right", which pursue a different political purposes, but both are not too tolerant about anybody, but himself.

      •  Nonsense (11+ / 0-)

        There is no far left in Congress.  Bernie Sanders is the only one who calls himself a socialist. Do you think he's an extremist who refuses to compromise or work on bipartisan legislation? You are not going to get a lot of agreement here with this kind of shallow evenhandedness. It's not the Democrats who've become irresponsible extremists and saboteurs.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 04:22:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Everyone expresses his feelings (0+ / 0-)

          I prefer to be "evenhanded" as you formulated. I tried to count - how many republicans from this list i could vote for given proper circumstances? The answer is - 30. That speaks volumes, and this doesn't happen in reality..

        •  Logged in just to like this comment. Spot on. n/t (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          22, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); "I believe our nation is the most American country the United States has ever known." -Stephen Colbert, 2012

          by gigantomachyusa on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 05:11:25 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Bernie is your (0+ / 0-)

          "role model" i think. My is closer to Kay Hagan or Marie Landrieu))))

          •  The point is (4+ / 0-)

            He's the only declared socialist in Congress, and he has great relationships with conservative Republicans and works effectively with Republicans and Democrats on bipartisan legislation. So your claim that there's a "far left" that's intransigent is bunk, and the fact that you yourself are a member of what passes for the mushy "center" in this country doesn't give you the right to make up your own bullshit evenhanded alternate reality. Come back any time there's a big faction in the Democratic Party that tries really hard to hold the budget or the national debt hostage or refuses to vote for any nominees for the DC Court of Appeals.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 01:00:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Words "far left" and "far right" (0+ / 0-)

              have different meaning in US then in Europe, or, say, Russia. In US politics is generally more "right" then in Europe, with "minimal" number of Socialists and no Communists. In addition - it's dominated by 2 parties, so, when one uses such characteristics as "far left" and "far right", he uses it usually in context of these 2 paties. A personal criteria of everyone also apply. So, say, Barbara Boxer may be NOT a memeber of "far left faction of Democratic party" for you, but surely IS for me.  And i generally disagree about "lot of bipartisanship" in Congress, especially - in the last 10 ywars. A lot of authors wrote lot of books about strongly increased partisanship in Congress, a move of Democratic caucus to the left (of course - on social issues first of all) and even bigger move of Republican caucus - to the right, and much less bipartisanship in Congress then even 20 years ago. Some counterexamples usually only confirm, not refute that. .  You, surely, know this as good as i do.

              A lot of roll calls in Senate and House goes now almost exclusively on "party lines" with no more then 10 dissenters (in whole House!!!) on both sides. So, i stand by my estimate - politics in US became much more inflexible and intransigent, and much less bipartisan since, say, 1960th or 1970th (when i got an interest in it, and it's unlikely i would if i would be 18 now) . And an old saying "politics is an art of compromise" remains an axiom for me. So, i am still convinced that "center", which is inherently more inclined ideologically to compromise then "solid left" or "solid right", is the place, where a lot of useful and passable legislation originates, and thus - i am interested in it's existence and importance.

              P.S. I offer to end this rather ideological (and not exactly electoral) discussion on that. After all - we can honestly disagree, can't we?

              •  Yes, we can agree to disagree (7+ / 0-)

                if you never bring this stuff up again. Because the fact that Democrats aren't able to get cooperation from Republicans is not because Democrats have become so intransigent. It's not Democrats who met right after Obama became President and swore to oppose everything he proposed for the express purpose of sabotaging him. They didn't even do that to GW Bush, who really stole an election, and it was very unfortunate that they let him get a lot of the awful things he wanted. So yeah, if you quietly continue to hold this opinion, fine, but any time you bring it up again, you're gonna get pushback, either from me or someone else, because redefinition of the center based on Republican extremism doesn't make the Democrats ipso facto equally intransigent and inflexible.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 10:44:03 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Does that mean that you want (0+ / 0-)

                  to deny me right to express my opinions and estimates? If so - why would i need to post??? Our personal opinions are reflected in our posts one way or another, and if someone is free to say "i prefer such and such person in primary, because he is more qualified or even (gash) - closer to me politically (say - bold progressive)" (and there are LOTS of such posts on DKE despite all "horse race" specialization of this blog), why can't other do the same about someone else (and Democrats, to boot, just of more pragmatic variety)??? Even if someone says after Tuesday primary "I am going to vote John Cornin because i can't stand Kesha Rogers" - will it be a "treason"????

                  Well, in fact - let's end on this. We were disagreeing in the past, we will in the future

                  •  No, your opinions about who is likely to win (5+ / 0-)

                    and why are totally relevant. Who you personally favor is actually pretty irrelevant, because you have at most only one vote. But if you really believe that Democrats are as much to blame for gridlock as Republicans, that's bullshit and an unacceptable opinion to advance to here, so just like our valued Republican friends (and I mean that quite sincerely) who post here, you need to have discretion not to express those opinions of yours that are at variance with the Democratic identity of this site, as well as with the facts of the current political situation. We've been through this before, including, I believe, the very first day you started posting and I explained to you that cheerleading for Republicans or advocating for them to beat Democrats is not acceptable here (voting for Cornyn against Kesha Rogers is an obvious exception, though). I will drop this when you decide to stop talking about it.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 11:05:42 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

        •  compromise doesn't work unless both people (0+ / 0-)

          negotiating can admit to such. Warren and Merkley are plenty far left.

    •  Minnesota (0+ / 0-)

      Franken over Klobuchar? Really?

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 07:46:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's a very close call (0+ / 0-)

        Franken seems slightly less authoritarian, though he's just as bad if not worse on Internet issues. I like both on everything else, though.

        19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

        by Tayya on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 08:31:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'll do a variation of that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      1 Dem and 1 GOP from each state.

      AL: Terri Sewell, Spencer Bachus
      AK: Mark Begich, Lisa Murkowski
      AZ: Kyrsten Sinema, Jeff Flake
      AR: Vic Snyder, Steve Womack
      CA: Jackie Speier, Jeff Gorell
      CO: Ed Perlmutter, Ben Nighthorse Campbell
      CT: Jim Himes, Chris Shays
      DE: Chris Coons, Mike Castle
      FL: Bill Nelson, Jeb Bush
      GA: John Lewis, Johnny Isakson
      HI: Tulsi Gabbard, Charles Djou
      ID: Walt Minnick, Mike Simpson
      IL: Bill Foster, Bob Dold!
      IN: Joe Donnelly, Richard Lugar
      IA: Bruce Braley, Jim Leach
      KS: Dan Glickman, Bob Dole
      KY: Alison Grimes, Brett Guthrie
      LA: Mary Landrieu, Joe Cao
      ME: Angus King, Olympia Snowe
      MD: Chris Van Hollen, Wayne Gilchrest
      MA: Elizabeth Warren, Scott Brown
      MI: Gary Peters, Dave Camp
      MN: Amy Klobuchar, Jim Ramstad
      MS: Travis Childers, Thad Cochran
      MO: Claire McCaskill, Jo Ann Emerson
      MT: Jon Tester, Marc Racicot
      NE: Bob Kerrey, Doug Bereuter
      NV: Harry Reid, Brian Sandoval
      NH: Jeanne Shaheen, Charlie Bass
      NJ: Bill Bradley, Jon Runyan
      NM: Martin Heinrich, Heather Wilson
      NY: Chuck Schumer, Chris Gibson
      NC: Kay Hagan, Walter Jones
      ND: Heidi Heitkamp, John Hoeven
      OH: Sherrod Brown, Rob Portman
      OK: Brad Henry, Tom Cole
      OR: Ron Wyden, Gordon Smith
      PA: Pat Murphy, Charlie Dent
      RI: Jack Reed, Lincoln Chafee (heh)
      SC: Butler Derrick, Lindsey Graham
      SD: Stephanie HS, John Thune
      TN: Jim Cooper, Bob Corker
      TX: Wendy Davis, Kay Hutchison
      UT: Jim Matheson, Bob Bennett
      VT: Pat Leahy, Jim Douglas
      VA: Mark Warner, Scott Rigell
      WA: Adam Smith, Dave Reichert
      WV: Joe Manchin, Shelley Moore Capito
      WI: Ron Kind, Dale Schultz
      WY: Dave Freudenthal, Alan Simpson

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 08:32:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Very interesting game (0+ / 0-)

      This took alot of thinking and balancing. Although I've got to ask..........why Alan Grayson?

      Mine:
      AL:
      Bud Cramer (D)
      Bobby Bright (D)

      AK:
      Mark Begich (D)
      Lisa Murkowski (R)

      AZ:
      Jeff Flake (R)
      Jan Brewer (R)

      AR:
      Mike Ross (D)
      Mike BeBee (D)

      CA:
      Jane Harman (D)
      Jim Costa (D)

      CO:
      Betsy Markey (D)
      John Salazar (D)

      CT:
      Joe Courtney (D)
      Rob Simmons (R)

      DE:
      Mike Castle (R)
      Tom Carper(D)

      FL:
      Allen Boyd (D)
      Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

      GA:
      Jim Marshall (D)
      John Barrow (D)

      HI:
      Brian Schatz (D)
      Charles Djou (R)

      ID:
      Raúl Labrador (R)
      Walt Minnick (D)

      IL:
      Aaron Schock (R)
      Adam Kinzinger  (R)

      IN:
      Susan Brooks (R)
      Brad Ellsworth (D)

      IA:
      Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
      Leonard Boswell (D)

      KS:
      Todd Tiahrt (R)
      Lynn Jenkins (R)

      KY:
      Ken Lucas (D)
      Ann Northup (R)

      LA:
      Charlie Melancon (D)
      Joseph Cao (R)

      ME:
      Charlie Summer (R)
      Susan Collins (R)

      MD:
      Frank Kratovil (D)
      Andy Harris (R)

      MA:
      Stephen Lynch  (D)
      Scott Brown (R)

      MI:
      Terri Lynn Land (R)
      Garry Peters (D)

      MN:
      Collin Peterson (D)
      Jim Oberstar (D)

      MS:
      Gregg Harper  (R)
      Travis Childers (D)

      MO:
      John Ashcroft (R)
      Anne Wagner (R)

      MT:
      Jon Tester (D)
      Brian Schweitzer (D)

      NE:
      Deb Fischer (R)
      Shane Osborn (R)

      NV:
      Dean Heller (R)
      Mark Amodei (R)

      NH:
      Kelly Ayotte (R)
      Dan Innis  (R)

      NJ:
      Chris Smith  (R)
      Rush Holt (D)

      NM:
      Tom Udall (D)
      Susana Martinez (R)

      NY:
      Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
      Scott Murphy (D)

      NC:
      Mike McIntyre (D)
      Heath Shuler (D)

      ND:
      Heidi Heitkamp (D)
      Byron Dorgan (D)

      OH:
      Zack Space (D)
      Rob Portman (R)

      OK:
      Tom Coburn (R)
      Dan Boren (D)

      OR:
      Ron Wyden (D)
      Kurt Schrader (D)

      PA:
      Pat Toomey (R)
      Lou Barletta (R)

      RI:
      Allan Fung  (R)
      Jim Langevin (D)

      SC:
      Tim Scott (R)
      Nikki Haley (R)

      SD:
      Kristi Noem (R)
      John Thune (R)

      TN:
      John Tanner (D)
      Phil Bredesen (D)

      TX:
      Henry Cuellar (D)
      Ted Cruz (R)

      UT:
      Jason Chaffetz (R)
      Jim Matheson  (D)

      VT:
      Jim Douglas (R)
      Martha Rainville (R)

      VA:
      Mark Warner (D)
      Tom Davis (R)

      WA:
      Jaime Herrera Buetler (R)
      Dino Rossi (R)

      WV:
      Mike Oliverio (D)
      Shelley Moore Capito (R)

      WI:
      Ron Johnson (R)
      Russ Feingold (D)

      WY:
      Dave Freudenthal (D)
      Alan Simpson (R)

      Age 26, conservative Republican, Washington State's Third District.

      by KyleinWA on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 09:48:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I see you didn't (0+ / 0-)

        bother worrying about the actual current lean of states when choosing, with 2 Democrats from Alabama and 2 Republicans from Vermont.  (That, however, was how those states voted for a century or so.)

        Though I have to say "yuck" at even the fantasy prospect of Andy Harris as my senator (in reality I probably have a better chance of being elected Senator from Maryland nowadays than he does.)

        38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 10:55:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Who would be a tolerable MD Republican Senator? (0+ / 0-)

          Ehrlich?  A Roscoe Bartlett reduced in age 20-30 years?

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 10:58:27 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  As sacman suggested, Wayne Gilchrest wouldn't be (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            bad. Connie Morella would also be a solid choice, I think.

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 11:07:23 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Only a few possibilities (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, bjssp

            Ehrlich is one; Wayne Gilchrest (is he still a Republican?) or a younger Connie Morella or Helen Bentley would be others.  Maybe Michael Steele, though I disliked his actual Senate campaign (he has been refreshingly willing to criticise his party since being RNC chair.)  

            A younger Bartlett would be interesting on some issues, like the environment and civil liberties, but he's otherwise too far right culturally.  The current Anne Arundel County Executive, Laura Newman, is promising but has been in office only one year.  Alan Kittleman, running for Howard County Executive, is another (supporting marriage equality, among other breaks from party orthodoxy).

            38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 11:09:41 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  I think the perfect senate (0+ / 0-)

      I think the perfect senate can not include two Republicans in:

      CT (J Rell, C Shays)
      IA (T Latham, T Branstad)
      ME (O Snowe, S Collins)
      NH (C Bass, S Brown)
      PA (Pl English, J Greenwood)
      RI (K Block, A Fung)
      VA (J Warner, T Davis)

      and one Republican in:

      HI (C Djou)
      DE (M Castle)
      CO (B Nighthorse Campbell)
      IL (R LaHood)
      MD (C Morella)
      MA (W Weld)
      MI (V Ehlers)
      MN (A Carlson)
      NV (D Heller)
      NJ (C Todd Whitman)
      NM (S Martinez)
      NY (R Hanna)
      VT (J Douglas)
      WA (D Reichert)

      I can not imagine a perfect senate with 10 of 12 Republican senators from New England.

      I can not imagine a perfect senate with 28 of 48 Republican senators from the 24 bluest states.

      The other day I introduced the concept of "moderate purity". I think this comment is a perfect example of "moderate purity". And I write it without wish of being too rude.

      •  Yeah, it's not really my perfect Senate either (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        A perfect Senate of mine would have at most 25 Republicans. But that doesn't require as much thinking and isn't as fun. ;)

        19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

        by Tayya on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 12:26:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I just can't (6+ / 0-)

      my "perfect" senate would either be 70-80% Democratic or be different from the 2 senators per state, or simply not exist at all.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 11:20:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Really? (0+ / 0-)

        Frankly the idea of either party having a super majority in either chamber would make me really uneasy. I, as a Republican, want a majority in the Senate, but I want a Democrat minority that can offer some checks and balances against too much concentration of power.

        Age 26, conservative Republican, Washington State's Third District.

        by KyleinWA on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 11:55:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I prefer 61 Dems (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BKGyptian89, MichaelNY, wadingo, betelgeux

          I want a good minority to offer checks and balances as well, but I also realize that the Republican Party at the moment isn't interested in checks and balances on actual policy. What they want is total insurrection against the Democratic Party whatever the means and cost.

          61 Dems allows new policy that I prefer provided that my party is mostly united on the issue (1 vote of wiggle room for extenuating circumstances). It also incentivizes the minority actually working with the majority because policy is gonna get passed anyway. They have to work with the majority if they want to tailor the policy in a more conservative direction. Sometimes it'll work, sometimes it won't. The times where it is more likely to work are those when the Democratic Party has a couple of defectors, and thus can't necessarily get the 60 votes for cloture.

          24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 12:01:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  As long as it's not the sort of supermajority (0+ / 0-)

          created through funny business, I'm basically okay with it. I happen to believe that things eventually bounce back to some degree, so if the supermajority was really objectionable, they'd lose seats pretty quickly.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 12:15:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  if we had 70-80 Dems in the senate there (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, askew, MichaelNY

          would be enough ideological diversity in the Dem caucus to be enough of a check for me. I'm not big on checks and balances though, I want effective and potent government that can actually do what the people want it to.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 10:27:34 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I've been thinking more and more (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            along the same lines as you. Have a big, broad party, where you tolerate a lot of ideological diversity* but don't tolerate shenanigans like the IDC in NY. To implement such a thing would probably require a lot of rebuilding over several cycles in the South, and in the Deep South especially, but who cares? If the most conservative members of our caucus vote like Republicans 75 percent of the time but let government function normally, we'll still get a lot done.

            *I'm also beginning to think the only real litmus test we need as a party is openness to raising taxes. Not that you absolutely need to want to raise them, only that you don't take Norquist-style positions.

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 10:42:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  i think the idea of checks and balances (0+ / 0-)

            has to do with not pursuing to ambitious an agenda. If you push something too hard-core then the other side is going to try to one-up you the next time they get power. And eventually, trust breaks down within congress

      •  No Senate at all (7+ / 0-)

        Truly one of the stupidest institutional constructions on Earth, with only the lunacy of the Electoral College obviously worse.

        All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

        by tommypaine on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 01:06:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I spent far too much time on this (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tayya, KyleinWA

      I made my list attempting to increase female/minority representation and moderating the Republican caucus.

      AL: Terri Sewell (D), Kay Ivey (R)
      AK: Mark Begich (D), Lisa Murkowski (R)
      AZ: Raul Grijalva (D), Jeff Flake (R)
      AR: Vic Snyder (D), John Boozman (R)
      CA: Kamala Harris (D), Mark Takano (D)
      CO: Mark Udall (D), Ben Campbell (R)
      CT: Jodi Rell (R), Chris Shays (R)
      DE: Catherine Cloutier (R), Liane Sorenson (R)
      FL: Kathy Castor (D), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
      GA: John Lewis (D), David Scott (D)
      HI: Tulsi Gabbard (D), Charles Djou (R)
      ID: Jana Jones (D), Mike Simpson (R)
      IL: Judy Baar Topinka (R), Bob Dold! (R)
      IN: Andre Carson (D), Jill Long Thompson (D)
      IA: David Loebsack (D), Tom Latham (R)
      KS: Raj Goyle (D), Shanti Gandhi (R)
      KY: John Yarmuth (D), Hal Rogers (R)
      LA: Cedric Richmond (D), Joseph Cao (R)
      ME: Olympia Snowe (R), Susan Collins (R)
      MD: Donna Edwards (D), Wayne Gilchrest (R)
      MA: Barney Frank (D), Richard Tisei (R)
      MI: Vern Ehlers (R), Joe Schwarz (R)
      MN: Al Franken (D), Tim Walz (D)
      MS: Bennie Thompson (D), Thad Cochran (R)
      MO: Claire McCaskill (D), Jo Ann Emerson (R)
      MT: Denise Juneau (D), Jon Tester (D)
      NE: Chuck Hagel (R), Tom Osborne (R)
      NV: Steven Horsford (D), Jon Porter (R)
      NH: Carol Shea-Porter (D), Charlie Bass (R)
      NJ: Rush Holt (D), Diane Allen (R)
      NM: Hector Balderas (D), Heather Wilson (R)
      NY: Kirsten Gillibrand (D), Richard Hanna (R)
      NC: Kay Hagan (D), Walter Jones (R)
      ND: Byron Dorgan (D), John Hoeven (R)
      OH: Sherrod Brown (D), Steve LaTourette (R)
      OK: Tom Cole (R), Frank Lucas (R)
      OR: Earl Blumenauer (D), Gordon Smith (R)
      PA: Jim Greenwood (R), Todd Platts (R)
      RI: Gordon Fox (D), Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
      SC: Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D), Jim Clyburn (D)
      SD: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D), Larry Pressler (R)
      TN: Steve Cohen (D), Al Gore (D)
      TX: Wendy Davis (D), Julian Castro (D)
      UT: Luz Robles (D), Bob Bennett (R)
      VT: Bernie Sanders (I), Diane Snelling (R)
      VA: Adam Ebbin (D), John Chichester (R)
      WA: Steve Litzow (R), Sam Reed (R)
      WV: Jay Rockefeller (D), Shelley Capito (R)
      WI: Gwen Moore (D), Tammy Baldwin (D)
      WY: Mike Enzi (R), Matt Mead (R)

  •  NY-11: Recchia announcing. (8+ / 0-)

    At Recchia's announcement in front of his parent's house in Staten Island.  Decent crowd.  In attendance State Senator Diane Savino, former Rep. Michael McMahon, Rep. Jerry Nadler, and 2012 candidate Mark Murphy among others.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 09:17:44 AM PST

    •  announcing what? (0+ / 0-)

      didn't we already know he was running for congress?

      •  It is the 'official' start of his campaign. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        And who shows up and the messaging they present is a way to tell what the tenor of the campaign will be.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 11:21:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  A more detailed report now that I'm out of the col (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, KingofSpades, MichaelNY, James Allen

      1) Mike McMahon showed.  The last remaining variable was whether McMahon intended to run himself.  Though few thought he would.

      McMahon came out swinging attacking Grimm over all his scandals.  Not just Grimm skipping a key Sandy meeting to go to a Justin Timberlake concert but threatening a reporter and his tryst in a bar bathroom.

      2) Diane Savino who gave the nominating speech for Recchia at the county convention was the MC at the announcement.

      3) Jerry Nadler gave a very harsh and personal attack on Grimm.   There are many Republicans he disagrees with but respects but it would be impossible for anyone to respect Grimm.

      Why this is important is pre-Sandy Nadler was ready to go all out for Mark Murphy encouraging his own people and Manhattan clubs to swarm Staten Island.  To take this seat that is exactly what we'll need.  People from outside the district taking the Ferry over and hitting the streets.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 11:44:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is this serious or sarcastic? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, KingofSpades
        Why this is important is pre-Sandy Nadler was ready to go all out for Mark Murphy encouraging his own people and Manhattan clubs to swarm Staten Island.  To take this seat that is exactly what we'll need.  People from outside the district taking the Ferry over and hitting the streets.
        It's obviously important to maximize turnout on the North Shore, but otherwise, aren't a lot of Staten Islanders kind of insular in thinking and not susceptible to appeals from Manhattanites?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 01:04:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not at all sarcastic. (5+ / 0-)

          While there is a small contigent of hard working party activists getting more folks involved would be a boon.

          First maximizing the North Shore should not be understated.  Part of the intrinsic problem Staten Island Democrats have had for years is that North Shore turnout is never what it should be without Barack Obama on the ballot.

          Second the district is more than simply Staten Island.  You have the Brooklyn portion as well.

          Third Staten Island is insular but it's not like you're stepping into the deep south or something.  Despite rumors to the contrary it's still New York City.  A good portion of Staten Islanders moved there from other parts of the city.  And are no different from other New Yorkers.  Even if we are shortchanged when it comes to transportation and health care.  And in the context of a campaign where you are going door to door to get signatures or making phone calls no one will have the slightest where you are from.

          That is not to say you'd want your entire staff being hipsters.  The majority of volunteers should and will be from the district.  But the more outside help they get the more everyone can do.  With a barebones volunteer base you're probably hitting triple prime Democratic voters.  With more folks the range of outreach you can do expands.

          Now certain volunteers will be sent certain places.  African Americans, Latinos, Russians, Italians might be sent to those neighborhoods.  But even if it's just making phone calls there is something for everyone to do.

          The strength of the Republican Party is money.  They will outspend the Democrats.  In a post Citizens United world don't doubt that for one second.  Our strength is in the grassroots.  Getting boots on the ground.  And while there will be some State Senate and Assembly races in Brooklyn and Queens that may prove interesting this is THE race that anyone in NYC with spare time should be putting their effort into.

          Seriously.  If you live in NYC don't just read about this race and cross your fingers.  Contact the Recchia campaign and see how you can help.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 03:27:28 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  MI Politics: Marriage equality support holds (9+ / 0-)

    In the latest MSU State of the State survey support of marriage equality holds steady.  It's the third or fourth poll in a row to show majority support, and the second of SofS to show support:

    MSU survey: Majority of Michigan residents support gay marriage as judge considers ban

    LANSING, MI -- A majority of Michigan residents support gay marriage a decade after voters approved a constitutional ban that is now on trial, according to the results of a new statewide survey, and those supporters appear to be growing more confident in their beliefs.

    Results from Michigan State University's latest State of the State Survey, released Friday, suggest that 54 percent of residents favor "the right of gay and lesbian couples to be legally married," while 36 percent are opposed.

    The survey of 1,008 residents, conducted via landline and cellphone over an eight-week period ending February 10, has a margin of error of 3.1 percent. Ten percent of respondents were undecided.

    The new numbers are similar to State of the State findings from 2012, when 55 percent of respondents said they supported gay marriage and 39 percent opposed it, but they are significantly higher than in 2010, when a majority of respondents still said they opposed same-sex marriage.

    I've found the State of the State Survey to be weird in how they measure things, but since this corroborates other polls, I trust it the general gist of it.
  •  Here is a bit of political trivia (11+ / 0-)

    President John Tyler, the 10th President, born in 1790, still has two living grandsons.

    Also, I think I found someone who's got Cory Booker beat in terms of social media stunts:

    http://themetapicture.com/...

    Calgary's mayor is quite amusing, and apparently a rising star in politics. Nenshi is the only muslim mayor of a North American city with a population of one million or more.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 10:26:58 AM PST

  •  Early Polling on Childers in Mississippi (14+ / 0-)

    Okay, I have none, so once you resist the urge to slap me for the misleading headline, read this from this Politico article:

    The Democrat didn’t enter the race on a whim: Party strategists told POLITICO earlier this month that Childers would make up his mind on the Senate race after private polling was conducted for the Mississippi Democratic Party. The former Prentiss County clerk was with his family in the state this week to make a final decision on whether to run.
    As DCCyclone suggests (wisely, I think), private polling is (almost always) better than public polling. Now, that's all that's said about polling in the article, so it's not clear how much was done and what the results were. But aside from waiting until the last minute, which of course might be for any number of reasons, wouldn't the polling have to be pretty encouraging for him to make this race? I think so.

    It'll be a long, hard slog, and there's certainly no guarantee we'll win. But really, I'm encouraged so far.

    I wonder what, if any, DSCC polling was done for the Kansas race.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 11:13:14 AM PST

  •  Going to CA Democratic Convention next weekend (8+ / 0-)

    It will be my 2nd time this year. I'm happy it is in LA this year instead of Sacramento so I will not have to drive 5 hours again (although I had a really fun car ride up but being closer is better).

    Anyone else on here going?

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

    by Alibguy on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 12:06:42 PM PST

    •  Cool, hopefully you meet some pols (0+ / 0-)

      particularly the ones in key races.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 12:28:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  HoosierD42's Weekend Judge Report (18+ / 0-)

    Some news this week:

    Confirmations

    • Jeffrey Meyer to the District of Connecticut. Cloture vote was 55-37-1 (Alexander and Collins voting Aye, Hatch voting Present) and confirmation was 91-2 (Crapo and Coburn against). The D. Conn. is now 7-1 Democratic appointees by active judges (10-2 D total). Meyer replaced Mark Kravitz, a G.W. Bush appointee, who passed away.
    • James Moody, Jr. to the Eastern District of Arkansas. Cloture was 58-34-1 (Alexander, Ayotte, Boozman and Collins voting Aye, Hatch voting Present) and confirmation was 95-4 (Crapo, Risch, Roberts and Shelby against). The E.D. Ark. is now 3-2 Democratic active (5-4 D total). Moody replaced Susan Wright, a G.H.W. Bush appointee who assumed senior status.
    • James Donato and Beth Freeman to the Northern District of California. Cloture for Donato was 55-42-1 (Collins and Murkowski voting Aye, Hatch voting Present) and confirmation was 90-5 (Blunt, Crapo, Risch, Roberts and Shelby against). Cloture for Freeman was 56-42-1 (Collins and Murkowski voting Aye, Hatch voting Present again?) and confirmation was 91-7 (Coats, Crapo, Inhofe, Kirk, Risch, Roberts and Shelby against). The N.D. Cal is now 13-1 D active, with a majority of judges appointed by Obama, and one further vacancy (17-5 D total). Donato replaced James Ware, a G.H.W. Bush appointee who retired. Freeman was appointed to a new temporary judgeship that will expire upon her leaving the Court.

    Movement on current nominations

    • The six nominees to the District of Arizona were reported to the Senate floor on Thursday. Steven Logan, John Tuchi, Diane Humetewa and James Soto were all reported by voice vote. Rosemary Marquéz was reported by a 15-2 vote (Lee and Cruz against) and Douglas Rayes by a 16-2 vote (Lee and Cruz against again). Hopefully they will confirmed soon, because as I have said before, the D. Ariz. is currently 43% vacant.

    Nominations
    Only one new nomination this week:

    • Robin Rosenberg to the Southern District of Florida. B.A. from Princeton, M.A. and J.D. from Duke. She is a former Trial Attorney for the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division under Clinton, a former Assistant City Attorney for West Palm Beach, and currently a state judge on the 15th Judicial Circuit (Palm Beach County). The S.D. Fla. is currently 6-9 Republican active with 3 vacancies and three pending nominations (12-12 total). Rosenberg will replace Adalberto Jordan, a Clinton appointee who was elevated to the 11th Circuit.

    Sorry for such a long update, comments and questions welcome!

    26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 12:14:14 PM PST

  •  I had a political dream! (6+ / 0-)

    I probably have them all the time, but I rarely if ever remember my dreams beyond a couple scattered details.

    Anyway, my dream was that Sam Brownback announced he wasn't seeking reelection, basically dooming our chances to take back Cedar Crest (the Governor's mansion). We were all mopey on here.

    That's all I can remember, just though I'd share.

    26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 01:16:42 PM PST

  •  OH-SoS (15+ / 0-)

    The legislature, John Kasich and Jon Husted's transparent efforts this week to make voting harder absolutely disgusted me so much that I made my first donation of the 2014 cycle today: I chipped $10 Nina Turner's way.

    26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 01:19:08 PM PST

  •  Maher couldn't have said it better (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, WisJohn, LordMike

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    These Republicans and Tea Party folks can't stand that a black man is in the White House.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 01:39:07 PM PST

  •  AZ-07, AZ-09: Article analysis the possibility (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    of a Sinema switch and what could happen. I think I good thing to consider is that she's harboring ambition for higher office and AZ-09 offers her a better opportunity.

    http://www.azcentral.com/...

    •  Seems like a bad move all around (10+ / 0-)

      It would anger Dems in the 7th who have been waiting a while to run for this district.

      It would hurt the Democratic party's chances of holding the 9th.

      There's no guarantee that Synema would win the 7th district primary.

    •  Plus AZ-07 is Hispanic majorty (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145, gabjoh, lordpet8

      And even if she made it out of a primary, which is far from a sure thing, she would have crowded out other Hispanic rising stars from moving up. With few exceptions (Steve Cohen is a much better representative than Tinker or Herenton ever would be), I think it's better if Congresspeople reflected their district than if they didn't, even though ideally we'd be post-racial about it.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 02:14:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Be careful (0+ / 0-)

        Interpreting your comment literally would mean that white-Anglo-majority districts ideally should have white-Anglo Representatives. Is that your opinion?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 02:44:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  "Should" is a strong word. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, lordpet8

          But I'm definitely more in favor of nonwhites representing white-majority districts than vice versa.

          26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 02:52:56 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's kind of inconsistent to not feel that way. (0+ / 0-)

          I'm leaving my own views out of this, but basically there's three schools of thought:

          a) Maximize minority representation until it reflects American demographics.

          b) Every district should be represented by someone like them ethnically/racially.

          c) Ethnicity and race don't matter.

          HoosierD42 was coming at it, from what I can tell, from angle b.  Which is different than your view which I believe is angle a.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 05:02:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  No, my view is angle A (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv

            But a NHW representing a majority-minority district is a step in the wrong direction.

            26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

            by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 05:17:47 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Unless he's Rep. Cohen (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42, James Allen

              I think in general, it's important to break down barriers and have more black and Hispanic politicians winning races, but to say that it's so important for a particular district to have a Representative who is a particular ethnicity, color, creed, sex, or sexual orientation is pretty unsavory to me. The point of VRA districts is to give people a Congress member of their choice, not to dictate what that Congress member looks like.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 07:40:44 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Subcribe under "C" (0+ / 0-)

            For me the only things that matter are political views of district's people. After all - election is a POLITICAL event. In all other aspects - race, gender, sexual preferences and so on - i am absolutely "blind", these factors play no role for me when choosing the candidate. Neither positive, nor negatve. And so, say, Mac Thornberry (white, male, conservative and Republican) is as good representative of TX-13 as Barbara Lee (black, female, liberal, Democrat) of CA-13. But switch them and their districts - and both would be horrible representatives. Not because one would be black woman in North Texas and another - white man in California Bay Area, but because of irreconsilable ideological differences between their views and those of big majority in their districts.

  •  FL-13: Final Debate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Gygaxian, KingofSpades

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 03:01:44 PM PST

    •  Sink needs to improve her delivery (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      I was listening to that debate, and she seemed kind of wooden. Obviously still much better than Jolly or the Libertarian, but I hope she can sound less obviously rehearsed on the campaign trail.

      Though I shouldn't be lecturing on that, since most Utah politicians are more wooden than a forest.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 03:52:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, not at all (0+ / 0-)

        You make good points. She's a good candidate, and I believe she'll win. If she was so horrible she wouldn't have been elected statewide. But sometimes she comes off as if she is uncomfortable, whether in a debate or campaigning.

        She not a horrible debater/campaigner cause there been times where I seen the exact opposite. But then there are times when she looks coy. Sometimes you never which Alex is gonna show up.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 03:57:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, it looks like a nail-biter to me (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          I don't see a confident win here, really it looks to me to be a pure tossup.  Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato's UVA shop tweeted that the sum of all the little tea leaves seem to point to a narrow Sink win, and I, too, see that.  But I've seen plenty of races where those little tea leaves prove wrong, they were just misleading and we read too much into them.  They usually don't mislead......but they do often enough to be wary.

          Any win at all will thrill me in this one, and a loss will be depressing.  Whether we ever reach 218 before the next re-map or not, we still need to win seats like this one whenever we have the chance.  It matters to at least get close.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 07:49:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  consistency see is her problem (0+ / 0-)

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 03:58:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI Assembly Majority Leader Bill Kramer has (7+ / 0-)

    entered a treatment program after being accused of harassing multiple women at a GOP fundraiser.

    He represents a heavily GOP district so if he did resign, it's an unlikely win for Dems.

    link

  •  Assemblyman Tim Eustace (D-38) is coming to (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, gabjoh, R30A

    the next meeting of my Democratic club.  I hope I can make it!

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 05:45:41 PM PST

    •  Whoops, I mean Assemblyman Lou Greenwald (D-06) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, R30A, lordpet8

      the Majority Leader and my ex-Assemblyman.  Eustace is coming the meeting after that, apparently.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 05:49:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  If I attend... (0+ / 0-)

        I'll ask how a big a surprise it was that Vince Mazzeo beat an incumbent Republican in LD-02 or whether this was planned.  The 2013 Dem assembly candidates were both mayors and raised good money, unlike 2011 when they were pretty much on their own.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 07:20:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Texas & Absent Dem Ads (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacob1145, sapelcovits

    So, while my account is old, I'm new to posting comments & actually participating. Hello!

    I'm confused as to why there are no Dem ads in the Houston Area right now. What's going on? The Repubs have been running for some time. I've only seen 1 Dem ad, and only seen it once (I think), about a month ago. I can't remember his name, or even the office for which he was running.

    I wouldn't mind writing a diary (if I was capable of posting links, much less videos), with the Repub ads in it, showing how they are cannibalizing each other. Mostly over immigration. Even in races that don't have much, if anything, to do with immigration. Oh, and let's not forget the, "I'll fight Obama" rhetoric in virtually every one!

    It's weird, but laughable. I even heard a rw talk show host mention it. Though, he was talking about a candidate saying he was pro-life while running for an office that really had nothing to do with abortion.

    So, can anyone tell me why Dems won't run ads on TV (at least in the Houston Area)? Is it because they think they've lost already, or what? I posted this question today on a Wendy Davis diary, and would post a link to it here, but I'm "link inept."

    "The measure of a man's real character is what he would do if he knew he would never be found out." Thomas Babington Macaulay

    by Deja on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 05:45:52 PM PST

    •  calendar (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, Jacob1145, Deja

      It's the build up to the primary. The Republicans are running ads for their Tuesday primary.

      There aren't many huge Dem primaries in Texas right now. TX-Sen. has a bit of one and our candidate is running ads against his LaRouche primary opponent. It's a mostly cable buy if memory serves.

      TX-33 has one as well. But it's a DFW district.

      The R's are running them because they have hot primaries up and down the ballot.

      Right now the action is happening in BGTX field offices. If you want to see it yourself, that's where you go.

      It's a brand new rock.

      by RevolutionRock on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 06:42:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Trivia question (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, WisJohn, LordMike, propjoe

    Which current elected official is the only person (so far) to deal Scott Walker an electoral defeat?

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 07:50:24 PM PST

  •  Peace everyone (0+ / 0-)

    Ill see ya'll when I ya'll.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 08:20:24 PM PST

  •  SCOTUS Retirees (6+ / 0-)

    Let's take as a given that we keep the White House and Senate until 2020. Which justices do you think will retire or pass away in the next nearly seven years?

    My guess: Breyer, Scalia, Ginsburg, and Kennedy.

    This does two things.

    First, Breyer and Ginsburg retiring ensures that we'll have at least four liberal justices for a couple decades, as it seems unlikely that Sotomayor or Kagan will retire anytime soon. That gives us a core of support in the body that requires that, presuming the conservative justices get a majority again, they'll have to be unanimous in their support for a given conservative judicial opinion. As we've seen with Obamacare, gay rights, and other 5-4 splits that went our way, forcing conservative justices to be unanimous can often allow us to advance our cause as if a liberal majority were present.

    Second, Scalia and Kennedy retiring gives us a majority. Presuming Obama or HRC nominates two young liberals, that gives us a 6-3 command of the body for at least a decade, probably two.

    Of all the things we could possibly analyze, all the politics and bills and votes, the makeup of the SCOTUS is by far the most important. Any time we've had a liberal majority in the court, social and economic justice has leaped forward. FDR's court packing scheme plus the 60s-and-70s-era courts gave us the current interpretation of the commerce and N&P clauses, plus Roe v. Wade and other incredibly important court victories.

    A new liberal majority operating for at least two decades would give us similar victories. Imagine a majority that would reject gerrymandering as legal and force citizen redistricting in every state. Imagine a majority that struck down Citizens United. Imagine a majority that vociferously enforced the VRA to include the right to fair polling times and locations for minorities. Imagine a majority that wouldn't be caught dead anointing Shrub the Third.

    This is why it's so powerful for us to hold the presidency for what appears to be at least twelve, most likely sixteen years. Appointment of SCOTUS justices alone could usher in a new progressive era.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 10:32:21 PM PST

  •  Here's your map of the day (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    Not incredibly political but it is a map, and we all like maps.  And I'm not sure if it has a shred of accuracy, but it's amusing.  The state that makes the most sense is NJ with Bruce Springsteen.  I would have guessed J. Cole for NC, although Miguel is featured in one of his more popular songs so that could be an error.  And it would make more sense if KY & WV were switched with IN & OH.  There are at least five of those artists I have never head of.

    •  What on earth is AWOLnation? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid

      I've never heard of it, but apparently it's popular here in Utah?

      Then again, I'm a Mormon Metalhead, so what do I know?

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 11:00:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The song you're probably most likely to know (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        is "Sail"; it used in a bunch of TV shows and things.  It's also the subject of a bit of minor music trivia, in that it was only a minor hit when it was first released, but then reentered the charts and has had the longest Billboard tenure of any song that didn't debut in the top 20 and finally peaked after over a year on the charts.  

    •  Sigh, Blake Shelton in Indiana (0+ / 0-)

      But damn, James Blake gets a mention in New York! I love James Blake.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 09:54:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dallas Area (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeninSC

    First as I browsed the site I was astounded to see ads for Pete Sessions R 34 Dist Congress...Sessions is one of the GOP congressmen who got a boost when the districts in the Dallas Fort Worth area were gerrymandered to weaken the impact of the African American and Hispanic vote.
    I'm working with fellow Democrats to see Sessions and the other GOP assholes out.. Turn Texas Blue and no more Pete Sessions ads on Daily Kos!

  •  PA 4: ex-Harrisburg mayor Thompson to run (6+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 07:02:46 AM PST

  •  Obama, Bill Nye, and Neil deGrasse Tyson's Selfie (5+ / 0-)

    Elections do have consequences, people. Just imagine if Santorum had won. It'd be Pat Robertson and Tony Perkins taking a selfie with him.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/...

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 07:32:38 AM PST

  •  Boycotting the Oscars (0+ / 0-)

    No Best Picture nomination for Runner, Runner? Really, folks?

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 08:17:56 AM PST

  •  IL-13: Chicago Tribune endorses Gollin and Harold (0+ / 0-)

    Strangely, the Tribune endorsed candidates for both the Democratic and Republican primaries in IL-13, which I find to be unusual.

    Link

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 08:34:10 AM PST

    •  What's strange is they endorsed (3+ / 0-)

      both the people who will lose by a fair amount.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 11:35:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not a fan of any of the Democratic candidates (0+ / 0-)

        Ann Callis, at least to me, gives off the misperception that she stands for nothing. She almost never talks about actual political issues.

        I recently pulled my endorsement of George Gollin (I'm not endorsing anybody in the IL-13 Democratic primary, although I'll write a few blog posts supporting the Democratic nominee) after he put up a yard sign in front of Callis's campaign headquarters (more than likely without Callis's permission, since candidates for public office don't allow rival campaigns to put up yard signs in front of their headquarters for obvious reasons).

        David Green's loyalty to the Democratic Party is, at best, questionable, and he strikes me as someone who might try to pull a Scott Lee Cohen and run as an independent or third-party candidate in the general election if he doesn't win the primary (if I'm not mistaken, Illinois doesn't have a sore loser law).

        Also, the Chicago Tribune is the Republican newspaper in Chicago, which means that their editorial board is full of cranks.

        There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 01:34:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  That kind of makes me respect them (3+ / 0-)

        It's cowardly to make endorsement decisions based on who you think is going to win, rather than who you think people should support.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 02:17:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  endorsing in both primaries (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, jncca, HoosierD42

      is quite common for newspapers. Like how the NYT endorsed both Hillary Clinton and John McCain in 2008.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 02:01:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Guess who was endorsed by a large (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, WisJohn, MichaelNY

      number of Champaign County Democrats? You know, Gollin's home turf.

      http://www.callisforillinois.com/...

      •  That's probably all Callis needs... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...to win the primary. Keep in mind that IL-13 was drawn specifically for Matt Goetten (who comes from the same wing of the Democratic Party as Callis), and he completely blew it in the 2012 Democratic primary (he never campaigned in C-U, IIRC).

        Also, the Democratic primary electorate in IL-13 isn't all that liberal. There are a lot of moderate/conservative Democrats in IL-13, especially outside of Bloomington-Normal and Champaign-Urbana.

        There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

        by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 01:41:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL-13: Jolly "loser of the week," (4+ / 0-)

    according to the political editor at the Tampa Bay Times.

    Doesn't mean much of anything in terms of the state of the race, but I thought folks here might find it interesting:

    [Jolly's] campaign has raised less than half that of Democrat Alex Sink, meaning the candidate claiming to be the local one is relying mostly on out-of-state GOP groups to get his message out. On top of that, GOP absentee ballot returns have his side worried, and his over-the-top attacks that Sink is a bigot for saying undocumented immigrants often work as landscapers and hotel cleaners hardly suggests confidence on his part in the final stretch.
    http://www.tampabay.com/...
    •  I'm cautiously optimistic (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, itskevin, bythesea, MichaelNY

      The signs are mostly positive but I'm expecting a late night. It is Florida after all.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 09:58:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was wondering how her immigration (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      comments would play in the district.

      The Jolly response really did seem way over the top.

      •  If the tables were turned... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...you really wouldn't see a Democratic campaign reacting like that.  This is telling because voters, especially the massive majority of peoples of color who care about the issue, give Democrats the benefit of doubt on race.  You might see some online liberals make noise, but even the professional left likely doesn't make much noise about this particular remark from a Republican......not the least because so many Republican political figures spew actual racism all the time, there's no need to twist someone's words to make them into something they're not.

        So a Republican, who gets no benefit of doubt, jumping on this with such hyperbole just looks stupid, to Hispanics and everyone else.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 07:06:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Early voting started yesterday (6+ / 0-)

      50% of Dem absentee ballots have been returned, 49% of Repub absentee ballots returned: https://www.votepinellas.com/...

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 10:02:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Does this include (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        the ones you and I were supposed to fill out? I stayed up late Monday through Thursday of last week filling out ballots. Hopefully, you kept up your end of the bargain.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 10:03:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Interesting (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        I checked your link, and it looks like it's back to 42/39 in terms of the percentage of all absentee ballots returned by Rs and Ds respectively. Last week, it was 42/40.

        Still, IIRC this is still more than decent for us, as Rs typically have a much wider advantage in this group.

        Note, too, that we're up by 3% (45/42) in early, non-absentee ballots cast. Sure, the total sample size is less than 500, but I'll take it! :P

  •  Thoughts on How Russia/Ukraine Will Affect Obama (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    Okay, I have none. In fact, the extent of what I can recall about Crimea is that there was a war there at...some point. I remember studying it for the AP European History exam.

    But since misleading headlines are my thing this weekend, I figured I'd use one to link to this amusing mistake by Slate, where they meant to put a picture of Putin but instead put up Javier Bardem. It's correct now, but, really, LOL.

    https://twitter.com/...

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 10:34:58 AM PST

    •  Charge of the Light Brigade anyone? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 11:12:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Florence Nightingale (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 11:25:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Defenestrations of Prague, the second one... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Here:

        The Second Defenestration of Prague precipitated the Thirty Years' War.

        ...

        Soon after, the Regents were thrown out of the third floor window along with the Regents' secretary, Philipus Fabricius, but survived after falling 70 feet (21 metres).[4][5] Catholics maintain the men were saved by angels, who caught them; Protestants believe they fell into a heap of horse manure. Philip Fabricius was later ennobled by the emperor and granted the title Baron von Hohenfall (literally "Baron of Highfall").[6]

        Later Protestant pamphleteers asserted that they survived due to falling onto a dung heap, a story unknown to contemporaries and probably coined in response to the Imperial officials attributing their survival to the intercession of the Virgin Mary.

        I don't have some sort of advanced understanding of this topic. I just think...wow, I mean, one of the worst events in the history of Europe was influenced by people being thrown out of a window into a pile of animal shit and interpreting that as a divine sign. Something to consider when studying history, for a few reasons, I think.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 11:36:31 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  um, how? (0+ / 0-)

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 11:44:04 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Because This Is A Very Serious Situation (0+ / 0-)

            My apologies if I'm reading what you wrote wrong but it seems to me that this showed a cavalier attitude to a very horrific situation.

            In the next few days or weeks 1000s (maybe tens of thousands) of people might be killed in armed conflict. This is not something to be made light of.

            To me it appears that you might have done this by posting a one sentence post about an infamous battle in Crimea in which the lighter armed military unit was slaughtered by the heavier armed military unit (in this case the Russians). That to me is making light of the situation the Ukrainians find themselves in which is, again, not cool.

            Again perhaps I am reading to much into this and for that I apologize. I am very sensitive to this situation since I have traveled a lot in Eastern Europe, have friends there and I care deeply about minority groups, partly since my wife is Jewish. Again, we went to Ukraine as part of our honeymoon.

            I'm also a veteran, have friends that have been inflicted by the scourge of war and my wife is currently in the National Guard. So yeah I'm watching events as they unfold intently. I don't want Ukraine to be destroyed or a renewal of the Cold War. Or anything far, far worse.

            Again, perhaps I am mistaken by your intent. Either way the recent events there are very complicated and disturbing.

            •  You are reading too much into it (5+ / 0-)

              bj stated he didn't recall the particulars with regard to Crimea and James offered an example as did I.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 12:32:07 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  it was cavalier (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bythesea, MichaelNY

              and I don't have a Jewish wife who's ancestry came out of Ukraine, but my great-grandfather David Bailin did come here from Odessa. Sorry if my comment made no opinion or value judgment but simply made light of a serious situation, but given I don't want to discuss it and its not a topic we're supposed to talk about anyway, and its depressing as hell too, I think a reference without any particular meaning to the current situation is maybe the only appropriate response I have here.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 12:50:44 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Oh no. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, LordMike

      We just discussed this Friday and we were told by David that this topic is verboten (заборонено), unless it deals with the upcoming Ukrainian elections.

      I'm actually quite passionate about this topic seeing as my wife's family is from there (Jewish, left in 1913) and since we went to Ukraine as part of our honeymoon last year, including going to many synagogues. I'm Polish heritage and we have friends in Poland, Ukraine and Russia. I've been following the situation intently for months now. We also attended a pro-Ukraine/ anti-Putin rally last Sunday in front of the White House. We obviously care about Ukrainian minority groups (Jews, Tatars, GLBT) which will do far better under a European centered government than a Russian centered government (even with Svoboda as a minority party in a coalition government).

      That said I will disengage from this conversation unless something extraordinary happens [Russia invades non-Crimean Ukraine, Russia is kicked out of the G-8 (which I am advocating), etc etc].

      In the meantime may I suggest the following fine on-line magazine for anyone that wants up to date information. Also, the BBC and The Guardian have up to date blogs.

      http://www.interpretermag.com/

      http://www.theguardian.com/...

  •  mostly OT: Will County, IL (0+ / 0-)

    as someone whose interested a lot in crime cases (the type you see on dateline or what have you), anyone here find it interesting that over the past ten years there were three major cases that got media attention (Fox, Savio, Vaughn)?

    I-80 goes through the county so I've driven through much of the county and I'd guess half the homes were built after 1990. Guess no one really knows what happens behind closed doors except the people behind them.

  •  Nice fluff piece by The Register-Herald... (9+ / 0-)

    On Secy. Natalie Tennant, Democratic hopeful for retiring Sen. Jay Rockefeller's seat in Congress. Story here.

    She visited Raleigh County last week, and Tennant said the most common issue she is hearing across the state involves increasing flood insurance rates, which she largely blames on Rep. Shelley Moore Capito’s actions. [...]

    “I’ve talked to folks who have lost sales because of Washington ... getting this piece of legislation passed. People deserve to know that it was Congresswoman Capito who wrote the legislation, who stood on the floor of the House of Representatives saying, ‘Pass it,’” Tennant said.

    This is the Biggert-Waters Act, a well-intentioned but poorly formulated piece of legislation that has led to huge spikes in flood insurance costs in many parts of the country.

    Tennant also highlights her work as secretary of state:

    As a notable example of standing up for West Virginia interests, Tennant said she played in instrumental role in ensuring justice was served when three elected Democratic officials tried to steal an election. [...]

    “We worked with the attorney general’s office, we gave them information, and those three Democrat elected officials served time in federal prison because I put West Virginia first.”

    And her opinions on energy production (and King Coal):
    “The facts are that coal is still 50 percent of our electricity, so it’s not like you’re going to turn coal off.”

    Building on that point, Tennant said that she envisions West Virginia employing an “all-of-the-above energy source” in the future.

    “The vision I have for West Virginia is an economy that is built on many different job opportunities, whether it’s coal, natural gas (or) water. We’re not going to replace coal; it is too important. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have an all-of-the-above approach.”

    Worth a read.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 12:37:19 PM PST

    •  Flood insurance and Keystone (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      These seem to be shaping up as two big issues in some of these races. Landrieu has cited Biggert-Waters too as a problem and got her legislation to fix it passed through  the Senate.

      Ironically, both Boehner and Obama seem cool to that bill, but WH hasnt issued a veto threat.

      And who knows what happens on Keystone but an approval probably helps Landrieu, Grimes, Walsh a little bit.

      That, however, could be balanced out against the coal restrictions that are due to be formulated later this year.

  •  Va election results? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Jacob1145

    Are Va GOV 2013 results by congressional district available anywhere?

    I can't seem to find them on the Virginia SBE website...

    •  Someone here has them I'm sure (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, VAPersian

      Cooch won VA-10 by a hair and T-Mac won VA-02 by a hair, IIRC.  T-Mac also outperformed Obama in the Dranesville supervisor district (McLean is in there), which is where he lives.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 01:28:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Here you go: (8+ / 0-)

      VA-01 - 52.4 - 41.6 Cuccinelli; 51.0 - 49.0 Jackson; 56.2 - 43.8 Obenshain
      VA-02 - 47.1 - 46.2 McAuliffe; 56.8 - 43.2 Northam; 52.2 - 47.8 Obenshain
      VA-03 - 75.5 - 19.1 McAuliffe; 79.7 - 20.3 Northam; 77.2 - 22.8 Herring
      VA-04 - 48.1 - 45.3 Cuccinelli; 53.5 - 46.5 Northam; 53.2 - 46.8 Obenshain
      VA-05 - 51.4 - 41.3 Cuccinelli; 51.1 - 48.9 Jackson; 56.9 - 43.1 Obenshain
      VA-06 - 57.8 - 35.0 Cuccinelli; 58.0 - 42.0 Jackson; 64.4 - 35.6 Obenshain
      VA-07 - 51.8 - 38.2 Cuccinelli; 50.6 - 49.4 Northam; 57.9 - 42.1 Obenshain
      VA-08 - 68.1 - 26.6 McAuliffe; 73.5 - 26.5 Northam; 70.8 - 29.2 Herring
      VA-09 - 61.1 - 32.2 Cuccinelli; 60.7 - 39.3 Jackson; 66.9 - 33.1 Obenshain
      VA-10 - 47.9 - 47.0 Cuccinelli; 52.2 - 47.8 Northam; 50.0 - 50.0 Herring
      VA-11 - 60.3 - 34.8 McAuliffe; 65.4 - 34.6 Northam; 62.9 - 37.1 Herring

  •  VA-02 is what I need (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    but I don't know why the SBE doesn't have it official yet...

  •  Just as a thought experiment (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacob1145, jncca, bythesea

    Say the 2008 primary race had gone the other way. Clinton narrowly wins the nomination, selects, I dont know, Ted Strickland to be her running mate, Obama goes back to the Senate, wins re-election in 2010, Clinton win re-election in 2012.

    Do we think Obama would be the clear frontrunner for 2016 as Hillary is now? My guess is yes, but probably not by the wide margin we see now(considering Clinton is at 70%+ in some of these polls).

    •  Yes. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bythesea, MetroGnome, lordpet8

      Although I think she'd have selected Obama as her running mate.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 02:01:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think Clinton/Obama is plausible (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY, lordpet8

        There probably would have been pressure on Clinton to select him as her running mate not to mention the benefits with black/youth turnout historic precedence.

        •  And to groom him. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY, lordpet8

          His main knock in 2008 was experience.  With 8 years of VP plus everything else (black/youth appeal, historic pick, speech skills, liberal but not extreme), he'd have been a very very strong candidate assuming Hillary stayed popular.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 04:47:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I can't see a situation where Clinton (0+ / 0-)

        doesn't pick him. Okay, maybe if she won pretty convincingly early on, but other than that, I think she would have had to pick him.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 07:43:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Same reason Obama didn't pick her (0+ / 0-)

          There would've been too much of a power struggle. He'd have gotten a cabinet position just like she did. Actually, I could easily see him as SecState under Clinton.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 08:09:06 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Power struggle? I don't see that. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, James Allen, jncca

            He wasn't in the same sort of position that she was in before he won the nomination and then the presidency. A fast rising up and comer, sure, but not as big as she was. I suspect there would have been a belief, valid or not, that you couldn't not pick Obama, after having him coming so close, without there being some sort of backlash from the black community. I mean, had he fizzled out early on, like Richardson, that be one thing, but even coming in second in Iowa would have been enough to give him the edge.

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 08:14:56 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  WV-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Obviously very early to be seriously thinking about this race, but I am curious about our chances at keeping this seat. The only good thing about us most likely losing Rockefeller's seat is that Tennant is available as a candidate for Governor in two years, if she wants it, of course. She lost the first time, but if the primary is barely contested, how do you all think she would do against a republican such as Morrisey?

    Besides her, who else would be a good candidate? Gainer? Thompson?

  •  IL-Gov: Anti-Rauner Ads on YouTube (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    El Hombre Azul

    I was surprised when I logged into YouTube tonight to look up a music video I had to see an anti-Rauner ad about seniors and nursing homes. Anyone familiar with whose running them?

    28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Raising money for the most important social movement in Indiana in generations -- Freedom Indiana. www.freedomindiana.org. We will defeat HJR-6!

    by IndyLiberal on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 05:38:18 PM PST

  •  MN Gov: Survey USA Poll (7+ / 0-)

    Sorry no link yet. Saw poll on KSTP TV, I am sure it will be on their website later.

    Dayton crushes all challengers.

    Dayton 51
    Seifert 34

    Dayton 52
    Johnson 34

    Dayton 53
    Honour 33

    Dayton 52
    Zellers 31

    Dayton 53
    Thompson 32

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site