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Chart on private jobs for February
Like the Bureau of Labor Affairs, ADP revises its monthly reports, sometimes sharply,
in subsequent months. For instance, it originally reported 175,000 private-sector
jobs were created in January and 238,000 in December.
Automatic Data Processing's report Friday that 139,000 new private-sector jobs were created in February isn't a good gauge of what the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report Friday. The consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News is for BLS to report 150,000 private- and public-sector jobs were created, when seasonally adjusted. But the consensus is off the mark more often than not, way off much of the time.

Differences between BLS and ADP—in one direction or the other—are not unusual, although both subsequently revise the original reports in ways that bring their numbers closer together. For December, ADP, a giant in the payroll services business, reported 238,000 new private-sector jobs had been created; BLS reported 74,000. Last month, ADP said the economy had created a 175,000 new private-sector jobs. That was far above the 113,000 private- and public-sector jobs the BLS reported two days later.

If the BLS numbers again come in considerably lower than ADP's, we'll be seeing the third consecutive month of very weak job growth, well below even the lukewarm growth of 2013. That likely would mean the Federal Reserve will slow down its tapering of the quantitative easing program it has operated for several years as a—much criticized—technique to boost growth by buying mortgage-backed securities. Low job numbers would also probably spur many investment companies and analysts to reduce their predictions for U.S. economic growth in 2014 from 2.5-3 percent to 2 percent or less.

Of the total new jobs ADP reported Wednesday, 19,000 were goods producing, 120,000 in the service sector. Professional and business services were up 33,000; trade, transportation and utilities were up 31,000; construction was up 14,000; and manufacturing up 1,000. Financial services saw a drop of 2,000. ADP makes no distinction between part-time and full-time jobs.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Labor on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 07:04 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (18+ / 0-)

    Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

    by Meteor Blades on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 07:02:18 AM PST

  •  the weather hasn't been (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mjbleo, FiredUpInCA

    very helpful. All the good it did was to generate some temporary 'plow ready' jobs.

  •  Friday's BLS' Employment Situation Report... (5+ / 0-)

    ...will be, arguably, one of the most important monthly jobs reports issued by the government since 2008. If it's abysmal, that'd be three bad jobs reports in a row. (Regardless of which way the U3 index goes--"north" of "south.") And, at that point, the shit'll hit the fan in the pundit class, rightfully so.

    On the other hand, the BLS U3 Index and the GDP nos. are so disconnected from what's happening on Main Street, these days, it's to the point where there's a virtually complete disconnect between what the MSM tells us (as they parrot our elected and appointed officials) and what's happening on Main Street.

    Frankly, it's downright stunning.

    (Do I think the economy's marginally improving, overall? At the overall THINNEST of margins; but, it continues to degrade in many areas where it counts most--and it is those touch points that are the most troublesome, and all but ignored, IMHO.)

    "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

    by bobswern on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 07:54:28 AM PST

    •  As in housing, for instance. n/t (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bobswern, side pocket, mjbleo

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 08:31:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Media and pols ignoring the long-term unemployed (4+ / 0-)

        ...focusing upon securities market performance while outright propagandizing about the housing market...media and politicians subtly morphing the narrative about income inequality into "educational opportunity" and "social mobility," instead...which, effectively/simultaneously obfuscates the greater realities of massive/unprecedented student debt, which, in turn, is a big factor in the undermining of the housing market (and the subsequent giveaways of middle class' homes to the investor class)...and the eminently tangential stuff: cheering--even HERE--about how chained CPI is "off the table," when nothing could be farther from the truth; it's just being postponed for purposes of political expediency...the ongoing undermining of the regulatory sector (where far too many DEMS are either at the forefront of that effort, either openly or tacitly/by default)....stating how stealthy AUSTERIANISM by TPTB has morphed into a Democratic Party talking point, since "the deficit's been reduced under Obama," when in fact it heavily undermines the jobless numbers...and, reiterating, there's income inequality, in general, which I'm discussing (once again) in my next post...and that's just my stream-of-consciousness "takin'" with less than my normal fix of coffee today...LOL!

        "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

        by bobswern on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 08:45:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Treading water. (5+ / 0-)

      Estimates of how many jobs the economy needs to create each month just to absorb population growth vary from around 60,000 to about 150,000. Robert Reich uses 125,000, so I'm going with that.

      This means that in any month in which we create 125,000 jobs, we reduce the number of unemployed people by ZERO.

      So if we created 139,000 jobs this month, that reduced the number of unemployed by 14,000.

      There are 10,200,000 unemployed Americans, even using U3, which understates the problem. So after this latest report, we only have 10,186,000 to go.

      What a fucking disaster.

      "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

      by HeyMikey on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 09:08:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The solution is easy (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mjbleo, bobswern, HeyMikey

        They just pretend people who are disillusioned , really just don't want to work. So they stop counting another few 100K and unemployment rate goes down.

        I don't think the employment participation rate has changed at all since 2009. Which in my book says we are still mired in the Great Recession.


        It's just not fair. It's 98% of the Politicians that give the other 2% a bad name. (both parties)

        by CitizenOfEarth on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 09:41:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Austerity is working (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HeyMikey, side pocket, mjbleo, sweatyb

    And by working, I mean less people are working.


    It's just not fair. It's 98% of the Politicians that give the other 2% a bad name. (both parties)

    by CitizenOfEarth on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 08:17:13 AM PST

  •  When did ADP start processing 'dates'? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    zapus
  •  As antooo notes above, this should be A-DATA-P (0+ / 0-)

    Automated Data Processing.

    •  I think someone must have corrected this... (0+ / 0-)

      ...I was unaware of the mistake until seeing these comments. It is, however, Automatic, not Automated.

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 07:56:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  "green shooted" again (0+ / 0-)

    We're not going to get a full recovery until we get an appropriate sized stimulus. And that is not going to happen until the Republicans lose control of the House.

    Two more years, at least, of needless stagnation and continued pain and misery.

  •  Damn it, Jim. I'm a doctor, not a job creator... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    psnyder

    Or am I?

    It's so frustrating to see examples that prove it's possible to make money in the United States employing people who are treated and paid reasonably well.

    I recently enjoyed reading about American Giant, who makes what many call the best hoodie in the world.  Aside from putting hoodies in a much better context than the news often affords them, the story is one of an American company employing American workers to make a high-quality product and --- failing, oh my! FAILING!!! --- to keep up with a feverish demand.  Nice problem to have.  

    Even Apple has started pulling bits of work away from China and re-shoring it in the US.

    And...lost in the shuffle of the VW union vote?  That VW was making good cars with American workers making good wages/benefits (if not by Michigan UAW standards, quite good by local standards).

    This is one place where ACA will help. (No...I haven't fallen in love with the law. Still think it's a steaming pile).

    In one swell foop, ACA mitigates a major factor for people turning down work with small employers or striking off on their own. That has got to be good for the economy.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 08:06:25 PM PST

  •  So the Republicans' plan to strangle (0+ / 0-)

    the economy in order to deny Obama a victory on the economic front is continuing to operate as intended. Republican success has meant deep, prolonged, and widespread economic hardship for millions. But, hey! At least Republicans got their win!

    Marx was an optimist.

    by psnyder on Wed Mar 05, 2014 at 08:56:12 PM PST

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