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8:53 AM PT (Steve Singiser): Polltopia/Texas: Last week, I wrote about how the lone pre-election poll prior to the Texas primaries had missed the fairway by a good bit, and speculated as to the causes for error. In an interesting read, the sponsors of that poll, The Texas Tribune, conducted their own investigation. The findings, which offer the reader a look deep inside their crosstabs, shows two probable factors, which lined up well with what I discussed last week. The poll was in the field more than two weeks prior to the election, and the Tribune notes that these comparably low-budget campaigns saved their resources until the last second. They also put a little blame on themselves, noting that they likely erred a bit in their assumptions about the composition of the primary electorate. It is worth a read in full.

8:55 AM PT: AR-Sen: A new poll from Democratic pollster Hickman Analytics (conducted, according to Politico, for "a non-partisan client") finds Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor tied with his Republican opponent, Rep. Tom Cotton, at 46 apiece. And when a trio of minor candidates are included (a Libertarian, a Green, and an independent), Pryor actually leads 40-37 (the Lib takes 6). However, to give you a sense of the serious headwinds Pryor faces, he trails a generic Republican 47-39.

It's also worth noting that Hickman's one publicly released poll in 2012, taken just a few weeks before Election Day, had Democrat Bob Kerrey trailing Republican Deb Fischer just 50-45 in the Nebraska Senate race. Fischer went on to win by 16.

9:10 AM PT: NY-01: While state Sen. Lee Zeldin has the support of most of New York's GOP establishment (including the state Republican Party itself), a second high-profile Empire State politician has endorsed his primary rival, self-funding attorney George Demos: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Demos' first big backer was ex-Gov. George Pataki, which is a bit interesting, since Giuliani and Pataki were never known to be tight. But Liz Benjamin points out one of Demos' consultants has long worked for Rudy, the other for Pataki.

9:16 AM PT: OH-Gov: Ohio's Republican secretary of state, John Husted, has once again tried to deal a blow to the Libertarian Party, this time by knocking their gubernatorial candidate, Charlie Earl, off the ballot for fairly technical reasons. But Husted, who seems to be carrying water for his own party here, has lost two other legal battles against the Libertarians so far this cycle, and the Libs say they'll appeal. In 2010, Earl took almost 5 percent on the Libertarian line in Husted's own race for secretary of state; it wasn't enough to affect the outcome there, but if this year's contest for governor is closer, Earl could undermine GOP chances of holding the seat.

10:07 AM PT: GA-Sen: Crazy-man Paul Broun—the "evolution is lies from the pit of hell" guy—is the man Democrats would very, very badly like to see win the Republican nomination for Georgia's open seat Senate race. And whaddya know, a new PPP poll for progressive group Better Georgia shows him leading the pack, in a big jump from last August (shown in parentheses):

Rep. Paul Broun: 27 (19)
Rep. Phil Gingrey: 14 (25)
Rep. Jack Kingston: 13 (15)
Businessman David Perdue: 12 (5)
Former SoS Karen Handel: 9 (13)
Activist Derrick Grayson: 3 (3)
Undecided: 23 (20)
This is actually the first survey to show Broun with a meaningful lead, though it's not entirely clear how he's gotten there (if this poll is accurate). The primary is not until May 20, and candidates have only recently begun advertising statewide—and Broun hasn't yet been among them. It's easy to imagine that Broun, as the most extreme true believer in the GOP field, has an appeal his opponents lack, but he's fared poorly on the fundraising front and won't have an easy time maintaining his advantage once the campaign kicks into high gear.

Still, in a race with five legitimate candidates, tea party enthusiasm may be enough to power Broun to a spot in the July 22 runoff, which would be held if no candidate reaches 50 percent in the first round of voting. And in the world of Republican politics, crazy can often beat money.

Interestingly, though, Broun actually fares best against the lone Democrat in the race, non-profit founder Michelle Nunn. Here's how Nunn performs versus each Republican, though Better Georgia for some reason did not include Perdue. Again, August's trendlines are in parentheses:

• 38-38 vs. Rep. Paul Broun (41-36)

• 42-40 vs. Rep. Phil Gingrey (41-41)

• 43-39 vs. ex-SoS Karen Handel (40-38)

• 44-41 vs. Rep. Jack Kingston (40-38)

All the movement is very small, as you can see. Even Nunn's 5-point net drop against Broun just isn't meaningful when the race still has barely begun and the proportion of undecided voters is so high. It's those undecideds, though, that are troublesome for Nunn: They went for Mitt Romney by a 48-33 margin in 2012, even though Romney only won Georgia as a whole by 8 points.

Convincing enough of these voters to pull the lever for a Democrat this year will be a top priority for Nunn, which is why the prospect of Republicans nominating Broun looms so large. He's radioactive enough that some Romney voters simply won't want to support him, and Nunn will need that kind of crossover support to have a chance. And if this new poll is anything to go by, she may get her shot.

10:53 AM PT: MT-Sen: Even though former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger said he might drop out of the Democratic primary for Senate after Gov. Steve Bullock tapped Lt. Gov. John Walsh to replace ex-Sen. Max Baucus after Baucus resigned to become U.S. ambassador to China last month, Bohlinger has decided to stay in the race after all. While early polling had shown a competitive contest, Walsh now has the advantage of incumbency, and he also has far more money. To date, he's raised $583,000, versus just $22,000 for Bohlinger. Rancher Dirk Adams, who has self-funded a little bit, is also running.

11:10 AM PT: FL-02: A new internal poll from Anzalone Liszt Grove for Democrat Gwen Graham finds her narrowly trailing GOP Rep. Steve Southerland, 42-40. That's very similar to numbers we saw last year from PPP and Clarity, though there's some other interesting data here as well. Southerland sports a middling 42-38 favorability score and a similar 46-41 job approval rating. Democrats also hold a 41-36 edge on the generic ballot, and Charlie Crist leads Gov. Rick Scott 46-43 in the governor's race.

That last matchup might actually be a bit of a cause for concern, though. In 2010, Democrat Alex Sink beat Scott 52-45 in the 2nd District, even as she narrowly lost the election. Statewide polling has shown Crist in a much stronger position than Sink was ever in, and while 2014 may not be shaping up as a terrific Democratic year, it's certainly a lot better than the brutal GOP wave of four years ago. It may well be that Sink had greater appeal in this conservative district than Crist does, but this is still something to watch out for.

11:20 AM PT: CO-Sen: Rasmussen: Sen. Mark Udall (D): 42, Cory Gardner (R): 41.

11:24 AM PT: WV-03: Seems like just a formality, but the DCCC has added Rep. Nick Rahall to its incumbent-protection Frontline program. It's been evident for a long while that Rahall is in for his toughest election in a long time this fall, thanks to sharply accelerating demographic trends in his district, so his inclusion here is an obvious move.

11:32 AM PT (Darth Jeff): Georgia: Filing closed Friday for the state's May 20 primary. In races where no one clears 50 percent of the vote, the top two candidates will advance to a July 22 runoff. The state has a list of candidates by office available.

Republicans control every statewide offices, and most incumbents are seeking reelection. Gov. Nathan Deal faces a fellow statewide office holder, state Schools Superintendent John Barge, for renomination but the Governor is expected to easily prevail. Dalton Mayor David Pennington is also running in the Republican primary. The winner will take on Democratic state Sen. Jason Carter, the grandson of Jimmy Carter. Daily Kos Elections rates the probable Deal-Carter November matchup as Likely Republican.

Republican incumbents for Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner, Insurance Commissioner, and Labor Commissioner are all running, and none face any primary opposition. Democrats are fielding at least one candidate in each race. In the contest to succeed Barge for Schools Superintendent, nine Republicans and six Democrats are running.

Two-term Republican US Senator Saxby Chambliss is retiring, and a number of notable Republicans are trying to take his place. In the mix are Reps. Jack Kingston, Paul Broun, and Phil Gingrey; former Secretary of State and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Karen Handel; and former Dollar General chief executive David Perdue (who is also the cousin of former Gov. Sonny Perdue). Two lesser-known Republicans bring up the rear. On the Democratic side, former non-profit CEO Michelle Nunn  (the daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn) is the clear favorite over her three primary foes. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Likely Republican.

Competitive primaries are expected in the races to replace Reps. Kingston, Broun, and Gingrey. All the action in each district is expected to be on the GOP side: all three districts are very Republican, and Daily Kos Elections rates all three as Safe Republican. In GA-01, six Republicans are running. Venture capitalist John McCallum and state Sen. Buddy Carter so far have the largest war-chests: They are joined by state Rep. Jeff Chapman and three others. In GA-10, none of the seven Republicans have stood out much from the rest of the pack. In GA-11, six Republicans are in. The best known is former Rep. Bob Barr, who is once again a Republican after serving as the Libertarian Party's 2008 Presidential nominee. Facing Barr are state House Majority Whip Ed Lindsay, state Sen. Barry Loudermilk, businesswoman Tricia Pridemore, and two Some Dudes.

Georgia's other ten House members are seeking reelection, and most should easily prevail. The only one who looks to be in any general election danger is GA-12 Democrat John Barrow. Five Republicans are competing to face Barrow in November: businessman and 2012 candidate Rick Allen, state Rep. Delvis Dutton, former Congressional aide and 2008 nominee John Stone, nurse Diane Vann, and businessman Eugene Yu. The district went for Romney 55-44, but Barrow prevailed 54-46 that year after being heavily targeted; Daily Kos Elections rates this as Leans Democratic.

The only House member who looks to be facing a credible primary challenge is GA-04 Democratic Rep. Hank Johnson. DeKalb County Sheriff Thomas Brown managed to out-raise Johnson in the last fundraising quarter, and looks to be well known enough to give the incumbent a real race. The district, which includes many of Atlanta's eastern suburbs, is Safe Democratic at 74-26 Obama.

12:34 PM PT: FL-13: With the special election on Tuesday, all signs continue to point to an extremely tight race to replace the late Rep. Bill Young in Florida's swingy 13th District. A new PPP poll for the League of Conservation Voters finds Democrat Alex Sink edging Republican David Jolly 48-45, with Libertarian Lucas Overby at 6. With early voters (who comprise 60 percent of this sample), Sink has a wider 52-45 advantage, but among the 37 percent who say they plan to vote on Election Day, Jolly leads 45-41.

One key thing to note is that Overby only garners 3 percent from those who've already voted while 10 percent of those who haven't cast ballots yet say they plan to back him. Republicans rightly fear that Overby will eat into Jolly's share (American Crossroads even has Rand Paul making robocalls asking people not to vote Libertarian), but the spread between Overby's actual support and putative support highlights how third-party candidates typically see their performance erode when it comes time for voters to pull the lever. If some Overby partisans keep shifting toward Jolly, that means this contest is even closer than PPP's numbers make it appear.

And the apparent Democratic improvement in the share of pre-election ballots cast, according to Pinellas County officials, doesn't look quite as impressive as it did earlier on. Republicans mailed in 43 percent of absentee ballots versus 38 for Democrats, while Democrats cast 46 percent of all in-person early votes, compared to 38 for Republicans. But only around 5,200 early vote were cast in total, compared to 117,000 absentees, giving the GOP an overall 42-39 edge. That's only a touch better for Team Blue than 2012, when Republicans had a 41-37 advantage.

As we've mentioned many times, Barack Obama carried the district that year, but by a very small 50.1 to 48.6 percent margin. Election watchers know that in off years, Democratic performance typically drops compared to presidential years, so Sink can afford very little falloff from Obama's score. In 170 elections held in 2013, Democrats ran behind Obama by an average of 6 percent and did better than the president just 16 percent of the time—and that was mostly before "if you like it, you can keep it" helped curdle sentiment even more sharply against the White House. More recent legislative special elections in Virginia have shown just how brutal the dropoff has been.

Under normal circumstances, Democrats would be at a serious disadvantage in race like this one, just thanks to the timing. Add in Obamacare and the handicap becomes even more severe. But fortunately for Sink, Republicans nominated a Washington lobbyist in Jolly, and Democrats have been able to taint him with D.C.'s stench. Sink's also outraised Jolly by a huge margin, though outside groups have helped make up the shortfall. The fact that she's kept the race this close is actually quite remarkable, all things considered.

A month ago, we felt that Sink still had a small edge thanks to her strong fundraising and the fact that she carried this district (albeit narrowly) in her 2010 run for governor. But with the election upon us, it looks like this race is now balanced on a knife's edge. As a result, Daily Kos Elections is moving this contest from Tossup/Tilt Democratic to pure Tossup.

Be sure to join us for our liveblog Tuesday night after polls close at 7 PM ET to see how it all turns out.

1:28 PM PT: KY-Sen: With Kentucky's primary coming up on May 20, Matt Bevin had better make a move soon. A late February poll from Public Opinion Strategies for the pro-Mitch McConnell group Kentuckians for Strong Leadership shows the Senate minority leader beating back his tea partying opponent 61-23. That's pretty much right around McConnell's average lead in all the polling to date.

In 2006, three months before the Democratic Senate primary in Connecticut, Joe Lieberman held a 65-19 lead over Ned Lamont, according to Quinnipiac. But by two months out—the same timeframe Bevin is now working with—Lamont had dramatically closed the gap to a 55-40 Lieberman edge. Time's running out.

1:43 PM PT: IA-Gov: Selzer & Co.'s latest poll for the Des Moines Register finds Republican Gov. Terry Branstad leading Democratic state Sen. Jack Hatch by a 44-29 spread, continuing a strange downward trend for the incumbent. Last June, he was up 55-27, a margin that had dropped to 52-29 by December. Hatch hasn't gone anywhere, of course, but what makes no sense is that Branstad's approval rating has gone up since last time, from 58-34 to 63-30. So a 9-point net increase in approvals is matched by an 8-point net drop in the horserace matchup. That's just inexplicable.

1:57 PM PT: FL-19: State Sen. Lizbeth Benacquisto, one of the three leading contenders to replace ex-Rep. Trey Radel in the April 22 special primary election, just earned the endorsements of two neighboring GOP congressmen: Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart and Tom Rooney. Ex-state Rep. Paige Kreegel and businessman Curt Clawson are also running in this solidly red district.

2:17 PM PT: NY-21: Unhappy that local Democratic leaders have tried to anoint filmmaker Aaron Woolf as the party's nominee despite his flimsy ties to the North Country, former St. Lawrence County Democratic Committee chair Stephen Burke says that he, too, will run for the open 21st District. Burke, though, sounds like something of an odd duck (he calls himself a fiscal conservative and a "human liberal") and a perennial candidate, which is probably why the district's current county chairs all just reaffirmed their support for Woolf.

2:24 PM PT: CA-Gov: Republican ex-Rep. George Radanovich has (wisely) decided not to run for California governor next year.

2:35 PM PT: CA-36: Former Republican state Sen. Ray Haynes, who'd been considering a run for Congress since January, finally made his bid official right at the filing deadline. Haynes is campaigning as the conservative true-believer alternative to Assemblyman Brian Nestande, the establishment pick. Haynes is getting a late start, but Nestande's fundraising hasn't been strong and he's only banked $302,000 to date. Freshman Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz would certainly like it if Haynes could thwart Nestande in June's top-two primary, but even if Nestande does survive, an intra-party battle will likely drain his coffers.

2:41 PM PT: CA-17: If Democratic Rep. Mike Honda had any shot at ensuring a November general election face-off with Republican physician Vanila Singh instead of fellow Democrat Ro Khanna, his odds just got a bunch steeper. That's because another Republican, tech recruiting executive Joel Vanlandingham, just got into the race (as did an independent Google attorney Vinesh Singh Rathore), making it much harder for Singh to sneak past Khanna in June's top-two primary. If Vanlandingham proves to be an utter Some Dude, though, Singh could still potentially pull it off.

3:02 PM PT: CA-15: On the flipside, Rep. Eric Swalwell, who faces a challenge from another Democrat, state Senate Majority Leader Ellen Corbett, may have just lucked out. That's because one—and only one—Republican did wind up filing in the 15th District, Alameda County GOP vice chairman Hugh Bussell. Given that this seat went for Barack Obama by a 68-30 margin, Bussell could definitely hoover up enough Republican votes to beat Corbett in the primary.

Swalwell also just earned the formal endorsement of the state Democratic Party, beating Corbett 37 votes to 24. The move was expected after Swalwell's strong performance in preliminary caucuses last month, and it gets him the party's official seal of approval on sample ballots that get sent out to voters, as well as the right to declare himself the endorsee in any of his own campaign materials. That can be a key difference-maker in the top-two primary system.

3:07 PM PT: CA-31: Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar also received the California Democratic Party's formal endorsement, prevailing over attorney Eloise Reyes by a wide 74-18 margin. He led 67-16 in the first round, though, meaning that a couple of recent high-profile endorsements for Reyes didn't wind up affecting the calculus.

3:37 PM PT: AK-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Begich has released his first TV ad of the 2014 campaign and, in a rare move, he's directly going after the Koch brothers, whose front group, Americans for Prosperity, has been blitzing Begich for some time now. A narrator starts off by attacking AFP's two ads, one (about Obamacare) for featuring a "D.C. actress," the other (on a carbon tax) for getting tagged as false by fact-checkers.

The spot then switches gears and features a number of ordinary people (who undoubtedly actually are Alaskans) complaining that the "billionaire Koch brothers" are behind the attacks. Referring to a recent story about the Kochs closing down an important oil refinery in Fairbanks, these citizens (in pastiche form) say: "They come into our town, buy our refinery, just running it into the ground, leaving a mess." One man concludes: "I don't go down to tell them what to do. I expect them not to come up to Alaska to tell us what to do."

It's an interesting approach, and it dovetails with Senate Majority Harry Reid's recent efforts to turn the Koch brothers toxic by accusing the GOP of suffering from a Koch addiction." (It's pronounced like the soda, not like the late New York mayor.) And in fiercely independent Alaska, where outside meddling is looked upon with grave askance, it could very well work. There's no word on the size the buy.

3:49 PM PT: OK-Sen-B: A new mystery group called Oklahomans for a Conservative Future is spending some real money touting former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon in the GOP primary, but they've left almost no footprint online. So far, they've shelled out $200,000 for a TV ad and $100,000 on mailers, but the organization doesn't have a website or a YouTube account. Shannon is running against Rep. James Lankford in the special election for Sen. Tom Coburn's seat.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:00:24 AM PDT

  •  FL-2: Good to see us competitive in this race (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Is Anzalone Liszt Grove Research a reliable poll?

  •  MD House approved minimum wage hike (8+ / 0-)

    All Republicans voted no, along with 7 Dems (all from rural districts), so it still passed almost 2-1 (89-46). Goes back to the Senate now, where they will allegedly try to put the provision back in that ties increases to inflation.

  •  MT-SEN: Bohlinger staying in (0+ / 0-)

    John Bohlinger has decided to remain in the Montana Senate race.

    http://helenair.com/...

    30, pal of Foot Foot, VA-02 (resident), NJ-01 (my old ancestral home)

    by footfootfoot on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:44:06 AM PDT

  •  IL-13: Gollin getting some newspaper endorsements (0+ / 0-)

    Chicago Tribune: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...

    State Journal-Register: http://www.sj-r.com/...

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:59:56 AM PDT

  •  Here's my senate ratings diary (5+ / 0-)

    Feel free to pick it apart.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 07:08:06 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for this list of North Koreans (9+ / 0-)

    who voted against Kim Jong-Un this weekend.

  •  MN State Rep with offensive tweet about NBA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, askew

    Minnesota Republicn St. Rep Pat Garofalo actually put out the below tweet yesterday.  He issued a follow-up, basically claiming NBA players have high rates of drug use and believe they are "above the law."  

    http://deadspin.com/...

    Let's be honest, 70% of teams in NBA could fold tomorrow + nobody would notice a difference w/ possible exception of increase in streetcrime

    Rep. Pat Garofalo (@PatGarofalo) March 9, 2014

    •  Does he really think the Timberwolves (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL

      wouldn't be among that 70% who would fold?

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 02:19:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If only 25% of the NBA folded (0+ / 0-)

        The T-Wolves would probably be in the mix.  Seriously, from this guy's history it seems he just hates the NBA as a whole.  Probably cannot handle the sight of a sport where the majority of players are black and successful.  

        Also, his argument that NBA players are more likely than average Americans to be arrested or use drugs has been repeatedly debunked.  

        http://regressing.deadspin.com/...

  •  Sink Jolly (6+ / 0-)

    Yesterday's votes were very Democratic leaning. Encouraging after a week of much more Republicans voting.
    It wasn't very many votes, but still.

  •  Guess the honeymoon's finally over: (12+ / 0-)
    "I think we are going to crush them everywhere," [Mitch] McConnell said about Tea Party challengers in a New York Times interview published Saturday. "I don’t think they are going to have a single nominee anywhere in the country."
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Remember when Republicans were just gaga over the new-found "grassroots" (ha!) momentum that the TP brought them?

    I wouldn't be surprised if this quote comes back to haunt him.  Ironically though, I actually want McConnell to win his primary.  He's about the only GOP incumbent whom I believe to be weaker than his challenger(s).

    Stuck in PA-3. Let's defeat "Mike" Kelly and Tom Corbett in 2014!

    by JBraden on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 08:36:48 AM PDT

  •  PPP: Rep. Broun leads in Senate primary (13+ / 0-)

    Nunn is competitive in general matchups, although it doesn't seem PPP pushed leaners very hard (critical in a state like Georgia). Story here.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 08:57:17 AM PDT

  •  KY-Sen (5+ / 0-)

    McConnell 61-23 lead over Bevin according to POS.

    http://images.politico.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:18:11 AM PDT

    •  And yet Mitch continues to sling primary mud (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      I hope that the big negative advertising only makes the electorate more disliking of him (or undoes any attempt to try to go positive).

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:28:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Look at teabaggings of 2010 and 2012 and... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        madmojo

        ...you will find a bunch of incumbents or non-incumbent establishment favorites who had huge leads like this up until the final month, then imploded and lost.

        That's why Mitch hammers him, and it's the right strategy.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 07:08:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  CO-Sen (4+ / 0-)

    Udall 42-41 over Gardner.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:22:03 AM PDT

  •  Well, this is just totally implausible... (12+ / 0-)

    From John Sides:

    If we zero in even further on the youngest of the millennials in these polls — those who turned 18 during Obama’s first term — the potential challenges for Democrats become even clearer. Among self-reported voters who were 18 years old in 2012, Mitt Romney, not Obama, won the majority: 57 percent.  Romney also won 59 percent among 19-year-olds, and 54 percent among 20-year-olds.  These youngest voters of 2012 had entered the electorate in 2010-2012, when Obama’s popularity was much lower than the high point of his inauguration.  Only among “the oldest of the youngest” — 21-year-olds, whose political memories would have been forged during Obama’s first year in office and perhaps during his first presidential campaign — did Obama win a clear majority (75 percent).
    Were you born in 1994? Then you favored Romney almost 3-2, despite being a member of the most racially diverse and socially progressive voting group in the country. Born in 1991? Congratulations, you belong to the most liberal cohort in the history of the country! ...It's just not plausible.

    Hey, look at me - I'm better at statistics than John Sides.

    (Alan Abramowitz isn't buying it either. He says on twitter that ANES data (whatever that is) had 18-20 year olds voting 71% for Obama.)

    •  Wow, that is implausible (0+ / 0-)

      The 71% statistic seems much more accurate. I fall into that group (18-20 on election day 2012), and there's no way we voted 57% for Romney.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:46:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If you chop down data far enough... (11+ / 0-)

      ....so that the margin of error become exponentially large, you can find all sorts of fun things.  I mean, if you take a look at 18 year olds who voted at a voting location near a Pizza Hut, you'll see that they voted 80-20 for Romney.  Therefor,e the GOP should adopt a pro-pizza platform to win these young voters. Total sample size=5.

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:50:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Small sample size? (3+ / 0-)

      He's working off of polling, likely including electoral exit polls.  When you split up the respondents right down to the individual year of birth or "coming of age" (turning 18, in this case), you end up with small samples with huge margins of error, making the results highly dubious even if your methodology is spot on (and I seriously doubt Sides' is.)

      Incidentally, the graphs from Pew date from 2011; if you want to extrapolate those generations to 2012, 2014 or 2016, add one, three, or five years onto everyone's age.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:53:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm trying to think of a scenario where these (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, TrueBlueDem, wadingo

      results make sense. I'm struggling.

      I mean, short of some situation where you've got very unusual turnout--essentially, all of the liberal 19-year-olds stay home while the conservative 19-year-olds turned out--how could we see this?

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:55:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  he should know better than that (7+ / 0-)

      20 year olds are demographically almost identical to 21 year olds. There is categorically no way in hell that those "numbers" are anything close to the truth.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:06:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This illustrates why I take Sides w/grain of salt (0+ / 0-)

        He did a poor job of proofing his own work here.

        He's hit-and-miss, sometimes good but sometimes not so much, like most of the popular published election pundits.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 07:04:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The more I think about this... (0+ / 0-)

          ...the more appalled I am that Sides actually had this garbage published.

          Two groups of voters differentiated almost exclusively by nothing more than a very small difference in age are never going to be 30ish points apart in voting behavior.  That never happens.  And when you consider each successively younger-by-a-year group of voters is less white and more non-white than the preceding group, that further ensures there can be no Republican trend as voters get younger.

          This is the sort of thing that really discredits a pundit...maybe not in the world of journos, but among anyone who is smart enough to read elections correctly.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 07:41:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I agree up to a point (0+ / 0-)

            It is possible for a younger group to be less Democratic - the increase in the minority vote would simply have to be overwhelmed by an increase in, say, whites voting Republican.

            But you're right that this is an impossible conclusion. I'd buy 3 points, even though I think even that's a little high - but not thirty. Not even close.

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

            by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:29:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't pass the smell test (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      I'd like to see the data he has culled this from. Geographic distribution, sample size, racial distribution, income distribution. There are too many variables at play than just age.

    •  How big is the sample? (0+ / 0-)

      18-20 is a very tiny share of the electorate.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:32:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ANES (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      VAPersian

      is the American National Election Study.  It's a big deal academically.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 02:22:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  George Demos' TV Ads (0+ / 0-)

    I've seen a few of them which imply there's no difference between Bishop and Zeldin on the ACA, since Zeldin supposedly voted to fund the legislation while in the NYS Senate. I'm not sure whether this is a good thing, as it might help Demos win and exacerbate any problems with his candidacy, or whether it's a bad thing, as I imagine support in NY-01 probably isn't too terrible and the ad makes Zeldin appear more like a moderate.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:45:25 AM PDT

  •  AR-Sen: Will the Libertarian vote matter? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    I'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet, but I'd feel much better if we had a potentially huge spoiler, like we might in NC. So, will the Libertarian vote matter?

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:52:08 AM PDT

    •  There's a Green, too. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp

      And Pryor is more likely to lose votes to his left than Cotton is likely to lose votes to his right.  Not to mention Arkansas has a weirdly strong Green Party, the only Southern state where that is the case.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 02:23:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ugh. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    I've calculated some senate probabilities by assigning a partisan value to state and multiplying that by incumbency and candidate quality modifiers, plus in two cases divisive primary multiplier to get a table of what I find to be the probabilities to Democrats holding each seat.

    But no matter what I do, I can't figure out how to organize these probabilities in a way that I can use some big system probability to determine the overall probability of different outcomes. I know Bates Theorem (as terrible as math people at explaining any math in a way I can understand, and I am good at math when its explained in a way my nonsensical and dyslexic mathmatical approach can grasp), but can't seem to make this fit Bates theorem even though I have a feeling that Bates Theorem can fit this and allow me to calculate the probability of each scenario from R+8 to D+3.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:04:18 AM PDT

  •  Pew: Most Young Republicans Favor Gay Marriage (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, wadingo, sapelcovits

    Via Political Wire...

    Wow, if there was ever any indication that they are fighting a losing battle on this issue, this might be it: a whopping 61 percent of young Republicans favor gay marriage. So says Pew.

    Now, there's no regional breakdown, so while I can only assume it's skewed to the point where it's below 50 percent in some areas and above it in others, I think it's a safe assumption. But if I am wrong, it means it's becoming less of a thing basically everywhere. If I am right, it means you're having a vast majority of young Republicans everywhere outside of the South, most likely, favor it. Either way, it's encouraging.

    Along the same lines, here's a Kevin Drum post the other day about how Bush and Rove, for a few reasons but definitely because of social issues, lost an entire generation of voters.

    These things can change, of course, so I don't want to go so far as to say that they are sunk forever, but it looks like they are going to hit a wall and do so quickly, if they haven't starting approaching it already. It's why I think the notion that it's okay to try to squeeze all the juice from the anti-gay marriage/anti-gay in general population, because in the end, people will return as it becomes okay for a young gay individual to work on Wall Street and vote Republican or something. Maybe it won't matter five decades from now, but that's five decades from now.

    I'm in a bit of a mood today, but man, is this is a nice way to start off the week.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:19:45 AM PDT

  •  AK-Sen: Begich ad with good production values (10+ / 0-)

    trashes the AFP's leaders for hiring DC and non-Alaskan people to distort and for trying to put a thumb on the scale while also closing down a refinery in Alaska:
    http://thehill.com/...

    Attacking a third party group doesn't work much, but in this case, Koch Industries has also laid off people in Alaska recently, so there's palpable harm they're doing.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:32:05 AM PDT

    •  How many people were laid off? (0+ / 0-)

      Alaska isn't a huge state, obviously, and if the number of people was substantial, perhaps it's a situation where this could be a sleeper issue. I mean, when you're in a state with 730-750,000 people, and, say, 5,000 people are laid off, that means you're directly affecting a good chunk of people, all of whom know others who might not like it, and so on.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:36:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  80 refinery workers (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, The Caped Composer

        but if the tables were turned, the GOP would play that up as a devastating blow to the local economy, so why can't we play a similar game?

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:43:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Short of simply making shit up, I've come to (0+ / 0-)

          the conclusion that basically anything is fair game. I consider myself a relative free trader (but more in the Dean Baker sense), but if an ad like the one where Obama bashed Romney for outsourcing to the sound of him signing about America works, so be it. I'd love for the campaigns to be more intellectual and more honest, but I'd also like to drive an Audi R8. Something tells me the latter will happen before the former.

          When I see ads like the ones funded by the Koch brothers, which seem to be straddling the line between highly deceptive to outright bullshit, I feel even more strongly about this.

          Go get 'em, Sen. Begich.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 01:05:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  those undecideds are good news for Nunn (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, sulthernao, JBraden, wadingo

    Those 33 percent who went for Obama are probably undecided just because they don't know much about either Nunn or Broun. I can't imagine what the profile of an Obama/Broun voter would be. The risk with this group is that some of them won't show up, not that they might actually vote for Broun. Nunn should be able to turn them out in good numbers by making people aware of what Broun believes.

    The 48 percent who voted for Romney are not reflexive GOP voters. Certainly some of them will ultimately hold their noses and vote for Broun, but I think most of the others will be persuadable. I find it far easier to picture an undecided Romney/Nunn voter: an educated suburban moderate who is turned off by culture-war talk. (I think another group of Romney/Nunn votes could come from Demosaurs who really liked Sam Nunn, but I think this group would be likely to already support Nunn.)

    Most of the 19 percent who voted for neither Romney nor Obama probably won't vote. To the extent that they vote at all, it will probably be because Broun scares them.

    I might expect something like:

    33 Obama: 30 Nunn, 0 Broun, 3 not vote
    48 Romney: 15 Nunn, 25 Broun, 8 not vote
    19 neither: 3 Nunn, 1 Broun, 15 not vote

    so Nunn gets the lion's share of the undecideds.  

    SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:45:57 AM PDT

    •  Obama/Broun voters (0+ / 0-)

      People with a dark sense of humor, perhaps?

      Seriously now, what about first-timers and casual, on/off voters? Georgia has untapped potential, and while I don't want to pretend as if this will seal the deal for her, I think it's a factor. Between 2008 and 2012, Obama went from 1,844,123 to 1,773,827 votes. That's a drop of 70,296. Meanwhile, McCain got 2,048,759 votes to Romney's 2,078,688 votes. That's an increase of 29,929, even as overall turnout was down slightly.

      You could look at this as an obstacle for us, and it kind of is, but we didn't contest the state in 2008 as much as North Carolina or Virginia, and I don't think we contested it at all in 2012. As others here have said, Nunn has to build her own operation, but any sort of competent campaign should see some results.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:56:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Yes! (16+ / 0-)

    Former State Rep. Chuck Riley will run against Bruce Starr!

    Riley held Starr to a 5 point win in 2010. Riley represented HD-29 from 2003-2011, which includes Cornelius, Forest Grove, and parts of Hillsboro, and is slightly less Democratic than the rest of the senate district, which is mostly in Hillsboro. The senate district altogether is about D+6 now, and continued trending our way in 2012.

    Here's what I said about the district in my last post:

    District 15: Incumbent Bruce Starr (R) v. ?
    Obama in 2012: 57.7% Obama
    Democratic average in 2012: 58.8%
    State House vote in 2012: 53.1% Democratic
    Victory in 2010: 52.3-47.7%

    There is only one reason that Hillsboro Senator Bruce Starr does not seem vulnerable at this point: he has no opponent. The district is more Democratic than the state as a whole in both the presidential and average numbers. Democrats won back both state house districts in 2012 after losing them both in 2010 when they were both vacant. Starr won by less than 5 points in 2010 when most incumbent Republicans were romping (consider Frank Morse in SD-08 won by more than 10 points in a more Democratic district). In 2012 Starr ran for BOLI Commissioner (and lost) and only won his senate district by less than 7 points. There are so many signs of weakness, signs that this district is continuing to trend Democratic, but we just don’t have a candidate yet. Race to Watch until we get one.

    Also it looks like there will be two Emerge Oregon grads facing off in the newly open HD-41 (safely Dem), and Greg Matthews is supporting former Gresham Police Chief Carla Piluso to succeed him in his freshly open HD-50, which is about D+4.

    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

    by James Allen on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:54:31 AM PDT

  •  Hispanic Voter Numbers to Make GOP Sweat Bullets (6+ / 0-)

    Via LOLGOP, from the Washington Post, based on the work of GMU political scientist, brought to you by bjssp, all in all a Spike Lee Joint, here's a link that mentions numbers which should make Republican sweat.

    Key passage:

    The analysis finds that the share of the eligible voting population that is Latino will rise by two percentage points from 2012-2016 in three critical presidential swing states: Florida, Colorado, and Nevada. It will rise by two percentage points in New Mexico, Texas, and Arizona. And it will rise by one percentage point in Virginia, Georgia, and North Carolina.
    There's a nice chart I won't even attempt to put here.

    Now, as the article says, just because the people can vote doesn't mean they will. We need to work to turn out such voters. Still, what a template with which we can work.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 11:20:16 AM PDT

  •  NH-SEN: Latest bit of news is that (5+ / 0-)

    Brown and his allies are suddenly sending signals that he will run.

    He is scheduled to speak at an Iowa GOP dinner next month, so that might be something to keep an eye on. If he cancels there, he might be running for NH senate.

    "Brown has been debating for months about whether to challenge Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen, torn, friends say, about whether he should instead run for president in 2016, or just forgo running for elective office again.
    •  What an introduction to the voters... (5+ / 0-)

      ...by playing Hamlet with them.  Not the best way to start, really.

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 11:42:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  On a related note, (3+ / 0-)

      when I get home from work, I will probably be torn between moving to Austin, TX, to become el hombre de las señoras, a threesome between Zooey Deschanel and Hannah Simone, or watching Conan O'Brien as I fall asleep.

      Decisions, decisions...

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 11:43:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A little late (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      Dems had time to boogeyman him up as an entitled Masshole.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:42:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, Scott Brown... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, The Caped Composer

      Run for president in 2016. There is plenty of room in the GOP primary still for someone with good hair but no political skills whatsoever.

      Seriously, he makes the president from House of Cards look competent.

    •  Iowa (0+ / 0-)

      Iowa is a good place to campaign for President not for NH-Sen.

      I think S Brown continues thinking more about 2016 than about 2014.

      •  Then Scott Brown is a (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer

        bigger egomaniac than most people could imagine or the men in the white coats needs to take him for treatment. In a Republican primary, nobody will give a rat's ass what a half-term senator from a blue state thinks. Nobody.

        And the notion he'd add much to the ticket as a vice presidential candidate? See above.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 01:26:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think he would have beat Markey in the special.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      but now I think he's finished no matter where he runs.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 03:56:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Re FL election and other questions (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    1. Was there a better candidate than Alex Sink? if so why was he/she not chosen?

    2. We need to run a conservative candidate Fl-13 (I think; if not please correct it). Why do some democrats have trouble accepting this? I voted for David Alvarez inspite of misgivings and taunts from the readers here. I would vote for Maxine Waters if I lived in LA area. I disagree with a substantial number points with her. A Republican vote is unthinkable.

    3. Dwight Jones has been nominated for DPVA chair and there has been rumblings over it. There arecouple of questions:

    (a) Mcauliffe certainly new this when he nominated Jones. Why? Was it because he thinks that Virgina is still somewhat red and he needs to show some centrist credentials for electoral and other gains?

    (b) Those who are opposing Jones have not explained how Jones would cause problems for them and Dems in VA in general. I certainly would like some details.

    (c)What will DPVA gain by making this a litmus test? (I always think about wins and losses when it comes to an election. This apporach has usually paid off. Zell Miller was an exception. I lost big with him.)

    •  My opinion (5+ / 0-)

      1. No, Sink was the best candidate.
      2. Because some people think you can run a progressive in every district and win.  Seems a lot like how some of the RW think they can run a bagger in any election and win.
      3. Not familiar with this siuation.

      •  I'll answer Q3 on Dwight Jones (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL

        (a) I don't know why McAuliffe nominated him, but I'm sure he had his reasons, and he obviously discounts the significance of Jones' opposition to gay marriage in spite of Jones being on the wrong side of a supermajority of Democrats at a time when our own state electeds are giving the issue an acutely high-profile in the state.

        (b) Jones causes problems because our own state electeds are loudly opposing the state's gay marriage ban at the very moment Jones would be picked for a job that requires selling to the media and public, as a public face of the party, the Democratic consensus on major issues, and also requires broad support from party activists and donors who care about this issue more than ever before and oppose Jones' position.

        (c) Making gay marriage a party litmus test ensures we're not in disarray on a high-profile issue.

        The bottom line is that a Jones appointment really is an announcement not that gay marriage doesn't matter, but that state party chair doesn't matter.  "State party chair doesn't matter" is the only argument one can attempt to justify picking Jones in 2014 Virginia.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:54:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not sure (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, The Caped Composer

      why you're suggesting that Sink's been a weak candidate here. She seems to be ahead in the latest polling, and her GOTV operation for early/absentee voting has been solid.

      Dems are down only three points in voting so far, when Obama ultimately won the district when Dems were down 4 points in earlies and absentees.

      I have a feeling it's going to be close, but Sink has a very good shot at prevailing.

    •  The only better candidate was Crist (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      and his running would hurt our chances to win Governor.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:41:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PrimaryColors.net (0+ / 0-)

    Interesting site attempting to identify primariable Democrats. Not any surprises on there for people like us who are following things closely, though probably quite a few things to disagree with. That's the thing with using data ranges and not looking at things in a district-by-district manner, but I like the site.

    CA-12, (-5.50, -6.77), originally CA-46

    by Jacques Kallis on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 11:36:55 AM PDT

    •  It's goofy (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, Stephen Wolf, itskevin

      Dan Lipinski is only a 6 whereas Cheri Bustos is an 8.  They got Dan Maffei at a 7 but Jim Cooper is only a 4.  Their top two are Henry Cuellar and Jim Costa, both of whom have actually been voting a lot better recently.

    •  I like the effort, but the outcome is misguided (4+ / 0-)

      First of all any list that doesn't start with Dan Lipinski is off. He voted against Obamacare from the right in a safe district, still has a safe district, is stridently anti-choice rather than just passively so, and isn't even a solid liberal on most other legislation like Stephen Lynch. The biggest reasons this sort of thing happens is they don't rely on key votes as much as they should, especially since a lot of the legislation of the last two congresses has been meaningless kabuki or necessary but evil compromises.

      Second, their system relies far too much on PVI. They have Brad Schneider as "should be primaried" despite it costing us the seat if that happened. Yet Stephen Lynch is a Democrat in good standing... There are others like Cheri Bustos that they want to primary despite that district not being all that safe.

      Third they don't take any consideration of the practicality of a primary challenge being successful or well worth the resources. For instance they have Jim Costa and Henry Cuellar as their top targets, but PVI there is misleading because a lot of those Democrats aren't very liberal, in Costa's case the top 2 makes a challenge basically impossible without a strong Republican challenge, and in both districts primary turnout falls disproportionately among Obama voters where my suspicion is that liberal Obama voters drop off more than moderate/conservative ones.

      My top list would be Dan Lipinski leagues above anyone else, followed by probably Stephen Lynch and Jim Cooper. After those I don't think a lot of these primaries are worth us spending millions of dollars unless they're raised from people who would otherwise not give, but also because finding candidates is hard. Ultimately it's easier and more effective to target open primaries and make sure someone like Filemon Vela or Juan Vargas or John Delaney don't slip through if you want to make the caucus more liberal.

      •  I'd rather spend millions of dollars (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jacques Kallis, Jervill, Stephen Wolf

        trying to rebuild the benches in states all over the country so that we can compete effectively cycle after cycle. I know I say this a lot, but I continue to think it's the best way to get an effective majority.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:07:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NY-Mayor not a good poll for DeBlasio (0+ / 0-)

    Yes, it uses the excellent, good, fair, poor BS, but after two months, the numbers really should have been better:

    http://www.nydailynews.com/...

    When you are mayor, the one thing you need to do is plow the streets and close the schools.  Although the poll states the he did the job OK this year, I think that the poor handling of the weather is the primary reason that a bunch of likely good numbers shifter to fair in this poll.

    "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

    by LordMike on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 11:45:32 AM PDT

  •  PPP: Sink 48, Jolly 45 (14+ / 0-)

    http://www.lcv.org/...

    Sink up 52-45 with early voters.

    "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

    by LordMike on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 11:49:51 AM PDT

    •  6% for the Libertarian (8+ / 0-)

      Still could go either way.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 11:51:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  49-48-3 Sink perhaps (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:19:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was wondering if PPP would poll here (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      it actually seems on target.  Overby has some strong supporters and I can see people voting for him out of protest to the immense campaign going on, like Sarvis did in Virginia (a state where third party candidates usually do real poorly).

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:40:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My attempt a pre-emptive spin (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, markhanna

        Would be that if it really is this close then it doesn't really mean anything for November. Dead even district presidentially in a dead heat Congressionally.

        But given the media has already decided the GOP are in for a big year I guess we could call such a result a win. Particularly with registration numbers.

        Trouble is, Democrats could easily still lose 7 US Senate seats in 50-50 nation.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:52:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MN-Secretary of State (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades

    Dennis Nguyen drops out: MinnPost News Article

    He seemed like a good candidate from what little I saw.  Apparently former state Sen. Ted Daley will try to get the GOP nod.

    MN-01, long time lurker

    by Jervill on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:22:52 PM PDT

  •  Anybody know where I can find official filings (0+ / 0-)

    for California for congress? kurykh pointed out a possible error in the Green Papers and I don't know who else would have them all.

    In Georgia 6 of 14 house districts have no major party opposition. Democrats fielded no candidate in the 3rd, 11th, and 14th while Republicans fielded no candidate in the 4th, 5th, and 13th.

    Also in Georgia Democrats did however field candidates for all of the statewide offices except one of the two public service commission slots. I wonder if the Democratic candidate for agriculture commissioner, James Irvin, is related to ridiculously longtime former commissioner Tommy Irvin who served from 1969 to 2010 and last won in landslide in 2006 (he carried GA-14!).

    •  The California list hasn't been finalized (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      There are two filing deadlines in California. For seats where the non-term-limited incumbent isn't running, the deadline is March 12. For all other seats, the deadline was March 7.

      The Secretary of State should put out a preliminary list of candidates after March 12.

      24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 01:23:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No Democrat filed against Scott in the 8th (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      Just as in 2012, Democrats failed to field any candidate against Austin Scott.  Scott also has no primary opposition, joining John Lewis as being unopposed (pending any third party or independents filing).

      Chris Irvin is Tommy Irvin's grandson.  He's a homebuilder, and made a run for the State House in 2010.

      30, pal of Foot Foot, VA-02 (resident), NJ-01 (my old ancestral home)

      by footfootfoot on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 01:51:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-13 (5+ / 0-)

    Given official DKE expectations and those of Republican insiders from the weekend I'd say the conventional wisdom is that Sink and Jolly will both lose!

    Taking all the information available into account I'm thinking it'll be less than 1% either way.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:45:12 PM PDT

    •  I think it's a narrow Sink victory (0+ / 0-)

      Jolly was surging for awhile but it seems that Sink is coming back a tiny bit with all the ads and the early voting numbers while not great are close to 2012 where Obama won.

      Also, PPP showed her leading by 3 and I can't think of any election except VA-GOV where PPP was off by more than that.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 home, College in CA-37, go Trojans!

      by Alibguy on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 01:27:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  PPP was (0+ / 0-)

        off a lot in the San Diego mayoral election. But that one was hard to poll given the uncertain Hispanic turnout. That problem doesn't exist here.

        My hunch is that it is shaping up as one closer than a 3% race. :)

        •  Not so good in SC-01 either (0+ / 0-)

          Though they did catch the trend.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 01:47:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I didn't (0+ / 0-)

            count the polls about that election that seriously. When you read the cross tab (not just the final PPP, but all preceding ones) you would see too many entertaining factors, which in the hindsight are obviously not well grounded in reality.

            One easy explanation is that many would-be Sanford voters just hanged up without answering anything.

          •  SC-01 (0+ / 0-)

            I think what happened there was that with the affair issue, many people did not want to admit to pollsters that they were voting for him.

            For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 home, College in CA-37, go Trojans!

            by Alibguy on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 02:02:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No mystery with that one (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              markhanna

              They had a ridiculous sample, that gave a ridiculous result, that was not at all similar to actual turnout.

              But that is water under the bridge.  They are using a new methodology now, so we will be able to judge that.

              All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

              by tommypaine on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 02:24:37 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  FL-13: Was watching the WH briefing today (10+ / 0-)

    and some reporter asked about Alex Sink. I'm pretty sure the reporter asked, "what is the president doing to help his campaign."  

    •  Imagine how silly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      that reporter will feel when he realizes a red blooded Republican male gets beaten by a girl... [knock on wood]/sarcasm.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 01:31:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-All (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacob1145, redrelic17

    Judge William Caldwell (M.D. Pa.) has issued a preliminary injunction making SuperPACs legal for PA state and local races.  The General Majority PAC, a Dem SuperPAC, had filed suit seeking their legalization based on Speechnow.org v FEC (DC Cir), and the Corbett administration did not oppose.

  •  Old man yells at pollster to get off his lawn (17+ / 0-)

    http://www.azcentral.com/...

    “It is a liberal Democratic pollster,” McCain told The Republic. “They have a reputation for polls that are totally slanted.”

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 02:00:18 PM PDT

  •  If you're from Indiana or Minnesota (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, gabjoh, HoosierD42

    which is all of you, I think, or if you're interested in the political changes in whichever one of Minnesota or Indiana you don't already live in, come check out my Great Plains 2004 to 2012 changes diary.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 02:18:23 PM PDT

  •  USVI-GOV: Delegate Donna Christensen running. (10+ / 0-)

    The non-voting Delegate from the United States Virgin Islands, Donna Christensen, announced that she was running for Governor of her territory:

    The Virgin Islands' non-voting delegate to Congress, Donna M.C. Christensen, announced she is running for governor.

    ...

    Christensen said at a campaign announcement in St. Croix that her nearly 20 years in Washington provided the experience and connections necessary to govern the territory.

    "No one can bring the key relationships with congressional leaders, with the White House, with federal agencies, national organizations, corporate leaders and regional partners that we can bring at this time of our great need," Christensen said Saturday.

    This is not a surprise, by any means. I remember seeing that Christensen accidentally tweeted out that she was running for Governor almost a year ago, although I can't find the news story that brought it to my attention. (Finding sources on the politics of the Virgin Islands is extraordinarily difficult, needless to say.)

    And if you've never seen it, take a moment to watch Donna Christensen's appearance on the Colbert Report on Colbert's recurring segment, Better Know a District (or, in this case, Protectorate), where he grills her for her (non)voting record.

    20, FL-07. UCF student pursuing a B.A. in Political Science, future teacher/politician. Wes Neuman for Congress! "The Republican vision is clear: I've got mine, the rest of you are on your own." -Elizabeth Warren

    by Tyler Yeargain on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 02:21:13 PM PDT

  •  PPP choices for next week's polling. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BlueSasha, footfootfoot, Skaje, abgin

    Choices are CO, MI, MT, NE, NM, RI, TX, WI.  

    I chose New Mexico, just because it's not really been polled.  I assume we don't have much of a chance.  Good choices no matter what one chooses, except TX.  Interested to see a good Michigan poll...

  •  Monday night returns for FL-13 (7+ / 0-)

    per ConArtCritic.  GOP gained some, but only 2700 AB ballots arrived (it's usually higher close to election day).  Going into Tuesday, GOP has a 4.58% edge in AB ballot returns and a 4.04% edge overall.  ConArtCritic said mid-week last week that unless AB ballot returns were approaching a 6% GOP edge going into Tuesday, he'd predict a Sink win (he writes for a conservative blog): http://votepinellas.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 03:31:09 PM PDT

  •  NY-01: Do Pataki and Rudy still have clout (0+ / 0-)

    within the NYGOP?  I'm sure their shilling for Demos is giving national Republicans heartburn.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 03:49:44 PM PDT

  •  Does anybody know a white (0+ / 0-)

    Democrat willing to run against Scott in South Carolina? I would be willing to pay a significant part of the filing fee...come on folks, we got to do what we got to do...

    •  It'd sure be nice.. (0+ / 0-)

      to get Jim Hodges aboard against Tim Scott. That might be a competitive race - SC is racist as hell, and some people would vote for a Democrat over a black man. A not-insignificant amount, too.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:58:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I doubt (0+ / 0-)

        It would even take someone of that caliber. Better chance for a white Some Dude than a black one (electorally speaking) in SC.

      •  not worth it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp

        to win just because they're racist.

        "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

        by James Allen on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 08:50:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I strongly disagree (10+ / 0-)

        Republicans, even the racist ones, absolutely love conservative African-Americans.  There aren't really a lot of Klan types around anymore, and while it may be a comforting thought to imagine Republicans as having a significant percentage of hardcore racists that would vote for Hillary Clinton over a black Republican, the truth is racism is a lot more subtle these days.

        In one breath, they will spout false racist "statistics" about minority communities, then in the next breath praise the small group of extremely conservative minorities that have advanced in the GOP.  In many ways, Republicans actually want to promote these types of candidates because of racist underpinnings...they despise minority Democrats (in very racist terms), and want to show them what "proper" minorities should be like.

        They see Tim Scott as "one of the good ones".  They want to put him in the White House.  Why do you think there's so much dumb 2016 GOP chatter about Ben Carson and Allen West as actual presidential nominees?

        Tim Scott will crush any Democrat among white voters in South Carolina.  Obama got around 25% of the white vote in South Carolina in 2012, and I can't imagine that some random white Democrat might do significantly better than that against Scott.

    •  Really don't like (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Dude 415

      this constant insistence that we must only run white candidates statewide in the South.  Considering that a large majority of Democratic voters in the South are black, it's pretty offensive to insist they can never try to send one of their own to Washington, that they must instead obediently back white Democrats.

      Let's face it, we're not winning either South Carolina senate seat this year, no matter if our nominee is white or black.  Our concern should be keeping the base active and voting and trying to not fall further behind in the state legislature.  Running only white candidates (that are going to lose anyway) isn't the path to keeping the primarily African-American Dem voting base excited.

      •  It hurts our chances to nominate minorities (0+ / 0-)

        It's sad, but true. Blacks vote Democrat no matter what. Southern whites don't. Since no state has a black majority, we need to appeal to southern whites - they're the votes we need because, despite having the black vote lined up behind us on the order of 95%, it's nowhere near enough to clear 50%+1 in any state.

        So if the choice is between nominating a black candidate that only blacks will vote for, and nominating a white candidate that blacks and whites will vote for, I choose the white candidate, and I'll continue to choose the white candidate until the racist geezer generation dies off. I care more about enacting progressive legislation than whether precisely 12.6% of the Senate is black, 4.8% Asian, and so forth.

        FWIW it's a concern of mine as well that minorities are often marginalized and taken for granted, but we have to be realistic here. I mean, imagine if we'd nominated Bennie Thompson instead of Travis Childers in Mississippi. Would the seat be even remotely competitive like it is now? No, not really.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

        by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 11:52:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And if we had a Travis Childers in South Carolina (0+ / 0-)

          they'd be a great nominee.  Not simply because Childers is white, but rather because Childers won two elections in an extremely conservative district, has good name recognition, and could probably raise a decent amount of money.  But if we're seriously talking about just running a random "some dude" white person in South Carolina, and hoping that their race delivers some votes against Scott, then we're already just giving up, and going to lose by over 20 points.

          Alvin Greene, disaster of a candidate he was, nevertheless was the first African-American to win a Dem or GOP primary for US Senate in South Carolina since Reconstruction!  That's kind of messed up in a state that is 28% black, and where the majority of Democrats are black.  It shouldn't be surprising that the Dem nominees might start to reflect the primary electorate.

      •  Out of curiosity (0+ / 0-)

        Do you not see the strategy in running a white Democrat against a black Republian in the Deep South?  Sure, it's cynical as hell, and it makes me a little icky that I'm practically numb to the implications, but we're talking reality, here.

        If you want to blame this strategy on anyone, blame it on the voters in this region of the country.

        •  It might have worked 30 years ago (0+ / 0-)

          But we're kidding ourselves if we think that any more than a few percent of South Carolina Republicans are so incredibly hardcore KKK-level racist that they'll vote for a Democrat instead.  There are a lot of racists in the GOP, but they love Tim Scott.

  •  Utah Election day voter reg bill advances (7+ / 0-)

    From the state house to the state senate.

    The UT GOP are kidding themselves if they think this will help them, but it's good for us if they do, since it won't be passed otherwise.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 05:22:55 PM PDT

    •  Well less in Utah then other places (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, tk421

      You don't have as big a generation gap when it comes to political preference in Utah as most states.  In 2008 the 18-29 group was actually voted MORE republican than the middle aged voters in UT.  Not sure about 2012 but I'm guessing it was the same.  If there is one state where same day reg isn't likely to help Dems it's Utah.  

      My own family in Utah is like this.  My cousins are more conservative than my uncle and aunt.

      •  True, but most Republican-leaners are already (0+ / 0-)

        registered. It's those who aren't already registered that tend to be minorities, progressive young people, and etc that could benefit from same-day voter registration.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:24:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  CA-45: John Moorlach dropping out (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, ehstronghold

    So says Jon Fleischman of Flash Report.

    That pretty much means Mimi Walters has DeSaulniered her way to Congress.

    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:12:14 PM PDT

  •  GA-St. House: Dems got a candidate against (6+ / 0-)

    defector George Greene, a Republican who was elected a Democrat originally.  It's a 55% African-American district that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012.  The district contains Early County, a McCain-Obama district.  Our candidate is Reverend Ezekiel Holley, a civil rights leader: http://www.examiner.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 07:11:15 PM PDT

    •  I mention this because (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, James Allen

      Mr. Greene went unopposed in 2012.  At least Dems have some strong candidates this year to prevent a steep dropoff in turnout.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 08:02:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-Sen: Subject of AFP ad will save $1K this year (8+ / 0-)

    thanks to her new plan under the ACA, and she gets to keep her doctor:
    http://www.detroitnews.com/...

    When advised of the details of her Blues’ plan, Boonstra said the idea that it would be cheaper “can’t be true.”

    “I personally do not believe that,” Boonstra said.

    This is from the Detroit News, a right-tilting newspaper.

    I tried not to call BS on a leukemia patient, but geez, what a deluded fruitcake.  Her ex-husband is a Republican official, so I can buy that she's blinded by her partisanship.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 07:52:36 PM PDT

  •  WATN: Former congressman Scott McInnis (R-CO) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, gabjoh, jncca

    McInnis was congressman from CO-03 from 1992 to 2004, then ran for governor in 2010 (narrowly getting beaten in the primary by Some Dude Dan Maes after a plagiarism scandal).  Now he's setting his sights on county commissioner, that of Mesa County, CO.

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